基于博弈论的金融市场微观结构模型的复杂分析

基于博弈论的金融市场微观结构模型的复杂分析

基于博弈论的金融市场微观结构模型的复

杂性分析

ANALYSIS OF THE COMPLEXITY OF FINANCIAL MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE MODEL BASED ON GAME THEORY

指导教师：

申请学位级别：学士

论文提交日期：2014年6月12日

摘要

根据博弈论观点，证券投资市场不论处于低效或高效的状态，均是证券投资参与者博弈市场的结果.但是在现实的市场中，博弈双方并不知道对方参与资金额度的介入时间、程度的范围、持仓的成本等等，所以会导致投资者只会在各种不明确的背景下进行博弈.在我国证券市场上，其本身只是一个不完全对称信息的博弈市场，本文就是要把博弈论的相关理论引入到我们国家证券市场，以博弈理论作为最主要的分析工具，把握市场上各参与者的博弈特征，分别在不对称信息条件下，从个人的投资者和机构的投资者的不同角度通过建立起静态的和动态的博弈模型，去研究双方投资行为策略，进而找出来影响策略变动的原因.在证券市场上只有进行公平的博弈，才能够去促进提高相关收益、提升运行效率.所以，从不同投资者的决策行为角度出发，运用相关的博弈论作为分析基础，借鉴和发扬目前国内外有关学者关于在金融市场的研究案例及总结结果，去揭示我国的证券市场上的存在的经济现象，并通过对个人投资者的从众行为的研究，以及对机构投资者的坐庄行为的考察，去揭示信息重要性成都，这也正是这篇论文需要研究的最主要的目的.并最终得出结论：只有支持开展机构投资者的基础上还应当要加强管理，并为证券市场的投资实践活动提供了决策依据，对切实保护个人投资者具有现实指导意义.

论文一共分为六章.第一章前言主要讲诉了论文的相关背景、研究的进展程度、主要的研究内容等等.第二章主要是介绍本文相关基本知识点的介绍，包括博弈论和微观市场结构，第三章主要从个人投资者的角度出发的市场决策方面的地讨论，第四章主要是从机构投资者角度出发下的市场决策的研究，第五章是在不对称的信息条件下个人的投资者与机构的投资者的决策博弈，第六章是结论.

关键词：机构投资者；个人投资者；博弈；证券市场

A BSTRACT

According to the game theory point of view, the stock market whether in high or low state, all participants in the game of the securities market results. In the realities of the stock market, the game both sides do not know each other in the amount of funds, the degree of scope, the time involved in the holding cost, lead investors only game in a variety of uncertain background. China's securities market itself is a game of incomplete symmetric information, the relevant theoretical knowledge of the game theory introduced into China's security.The market, as the main tools of economic analysis with game theory, to grasp the characteristics of game market participants, respectively, under asymmetric information conditions, the static and dynamic game model is built from individual investors and institutional investors perspective, research methods of investment behavior of both sides, and then find out the factors influencing the strategy change. Only through the game fair in the stock market, can promote to increase revenue, improve efficiency. Therefore, from the view of investor decision behavior angle, using the game theory as the analysis method, reference and development at home and abroad about financial markets research and summarize, reveals the economic phenomenon of China's securities market, through the study of the individual investors herd behavior, and the behavior of institutional investors to avoid power, reveals the importance of information disclosure, this also is the main purpose of this study. This paper draws the conclusion: the basis of developing institutional investors should also strengthen management, offer the decision basis for investment practice of securities market, has the practical significance to protect the individual investors.

This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter mainly tells the related background, research progress, the main research contents etc.. The

second chapter mainly introduced the basic knowledge is introduced, including game theory and microeconomic market structure, the third chapter mainly from the perspective of individual investors point of market policy discussion, the fourth chapter is the research from the perspective of institutional investors under the market decision, the fifth chapter is the decision of investors and institutions in asymmetric information under the conditions of the investors, the sixth chapter is the conclusion.

Key words：Institutional investors; individual investor; play a game; stock market

目录

1 前言 (1)

1.1论文的研究背景 (1)

2 相关理论概述 (2)

2.1博弈论的概念 (2)

3 本文研究的主要内容 (5)

3.1 研究的内容 (5)

4 个人投资者角度下的市场决策研究 (7)

4.1个人投资者的羊群行为 (7)

4.2 个人投资者的进化博弈 (10)

5 机构投资者角度下的市场决策研究 (13)

5.1市场走势 (13)

5.2 机构投资者的声誉模型 (13)

5.3 精炼贝叶斯均衡策略 (19)

6 结论 (21)

6.1 全文总结 (21)

6.2 研究展望 (22)

参考文献 (23)