灰色系统预测法套用

序号123x (0)(k)534654665520

初始化x (0)(k)

1 1.009879254

x (1)(k)

5346.00

1081216332-8079

-13572

11y n T =

54665520

36497819936

-633921

-63392114

-3794609342

-0.0108588481934

5360.739536

预测模型x ∧(1)(k+1)=499021.17e 0.0143427k +导数模型

x ∧(0)(k+1)=5418.790893e 0.0143427k

x ∧(1)(k)5346.0010794.3185716302.12193

还原数据5346.005448.32

5507.80误差17.6812.20相对误差0.32%0.22%

x ∧(0)(k)

5477.953311

5537.761664初始化x (0)

(k)1 1.010918011△（k）

00.001038757ζ（k）

1

0.811876423

关联度检验

B T =B T B=B T y n =

生成数

数据矩阵B、y 计算矩阵求出参数残差检验

?a

4567895537

5607

5684573958175899

1.012989389

1.025795829

1.039882913 1.04994512 1.064215151.079216978

218692747633160388994471650615-19100.5

-24672.5

-30318-36029.5-41807.5-47665.5

11111155375607

5684573958175899

1.28307E-10 5.80973E-065.80973E-060.334493637u/a=-493675.17

x(0)(1)=

0.5

-493675.17221870.0595627498.7879833188.9709338941.279444756.391550634.993195567.945628.735690.185752.315815.115878.60-30.94-21.73-6.18-13.31 1.8920.40-0.56%-0.39%-0.11%-0.23%0.03%0.35%5598.2230065659.3444665721.133255783.596645846.742025910.5768081.021955225 1.033112943 1.044392481 1.05579517 1.06732235 1.078975390.0089658360.0073171140.0045095690.005850050.00310720.0002415880.333333333

0.379907263

0.498518164

0.43384592

0.59062524

0.948864925

一次累加生成数

(B T B)-1=

101112131415 595660316091614461896254 1.089645079 1.103366264 1.114343213 1.124039517 1.132272228 1.144163922

565716260268693748378102687280 -53593-59586.5-65647.5-71765-77931.5-84153 111111 595660316091614461896254

56577.7774762585.4451468658.7045974798.2719581004.8711787279.23411 5942.786007.676073.266139.576206.606274.36

13.2223.3317.74 4.43-17.60-20.36

0.22%0.39%0.29%0.07%-0.28%-0.33% 5975.108556040.344856106.29346172.9619786240.3584446308.490745 1.090755655 1.102664537 1.11470344 1.126873784 1.139177005 1.151614551 0.0011105760.0007017270.0003602280.0028342670.0069047760.007450629 0.8014521740.8646527650.9256211550.6126560570.3936633530.375656784

0.008965836 0.613128735