跨境电商环境下我国中小企业的发展文献翻译

跨境电商环境下我国中小企业的发展文献翻译
跨境电商环境下我国中小企业的发展文献翻译

文献翻译

题目跨境电子商务在欧盟的发展动力和壁垒学生姓名李娜

专业班级国际经济与贸易11-01班

学号541106080114

院(系)经济与管理学院

指导教师(职称)周桂英(教授)

完成时间 2015 年 3 月12 日

跨境电子商务在欧盟的发展动力和壁垒

Estrella Gomez-Herrera, Bertin Martens, Geomina Turlea

出处:

摘要

互联网的兴起,往往是与“距离的消亡”或至少减少相关的地理距离在供应信息相关。我们研究距离事宜仍在实物商品的网上交易是否。我们使用的数据从一个网络消费者调查小组对网上跨境货物贸易中的一个语言支离破碎的欧盟市场。分析结果表明,相比线下交易在同一商品的距离相关的交易成本大大降低。然而,语言相关的交易成本的增加。此外,网上交易介绍新能源贸易成本如包裹递送和在线支付系统。在平衡,没有迹象显示在线贸易不偏向于国内市场的产品比线下交易支持。我们提供给政策制定者推动欧盟数字单一市场的跨境电子商务的选项。在高效灵活的跨境支付系统的使用增加1%可以增加多达7%的跨境电子商务。我们还表明,在线交易给英语语言输出国家的比较优势。

关键词电子商务/引力方程/欧盟

1.介绍

本文实证研究的在线电子商务跨境贸易模式的影响。互联网的兴起,更一般地,数字通信技术,具有LED许多观察家宣布,距离“死”(Cairncross,1997)。在这方面,它不在乎信息所在的位置因为它只是一个鼠标点击和信息成本不再是物理距离有关。在传统的线下实物商品贸易,证据却指向距离成本增加(disdier 和头,2008)。贸易相结合的基础上的信息和物理的货物运输。问题是是否将贸易从线下到线上平台是一个足够大的凹痕在信息成本改变贸易总成本因此货物贸易模式。Blum和Goldfarb(2006)表明,即使是纯粹的信息产品,距离仍然起着重要的作用。他们认为这是文化上的差异,随着物理距离的增加。除了信息成本的影响,可能会有副作用,对贸易模式的影响。网上贸易开辟了一个潜在的更大的地理汇水面积,为供应商和消费者,在产品品种和价格竞争的增加。这两个因素都将有利于相对脱离的离线和在线贸易对。然而,出现在网络上,可以减缓甚至逆转这一趋势可能新的信息交易成本的来源。新的信息成本可能是由于语言,文化和制度的差异和贸易成本,电子商务基础设施业务有关的。

我们做一个独特的网上消费者调查获得的商品跨境电子商务数据集。(公民咨询,2011)根据欧洲委员会(2012),欧盟电子商务指令通过十年后,电子商务仍小于4%的总的欧洲跨境贸易电子商务认为这远远低于其潜力。该委员会是欧洲数字议程的目的是让所有的欧洲公民50%在网上买,20%至2015从事网上跨境交易。问题是,在电子商务跨境交易的电位高于脱机交易。

我们调查了三个潜在的在线交易成本变化的来源,相比线下交易。首先,从普通的线下贸易网络的转变使网上交易可以降低交易成本的重要性与地理距离相关。虽然距离可能不再重要的信息和纯粹的数字产品和服务(Blum和Goldfarb,2006),商品仍然需要身体运,有时跨不同的监管制度之间的边界,达到买方。因此,仅占总交易成本的一部分是从模拟到数字信息技术转变的影响。其次,我们探讨的文化和制度因素的作用,如语言和法律机构的质量,作为网上贸易模式的决定因素。距离相关的交易成本的减少,其他来源的成本的相对重要性可能增加。第三,实物商品在线交易平台需要特定的基础设施,如灵活的在线支付系统和高效的快递系统。我们衡量自己的贡献来解释网络贸易模式。最后,我们将所有这些来源的在线贸易成本,看看正、负贡献的净影响,如家庭的偏见

或“国内市场产品的偏好程度的测量。

我们使用的分析工具是用于此目的的跨境国际贸易引力模型,解释在现实经济国际贸易流量的标准工具(安德森和van Wincoop,2003)。这种模式是根植于牛顿的想法,许多国际贸易流动的观察模式可以通过对贸易伙伴和他们的物理距离经济规模的解释。“距离”可以更广泛地解释为一个捕获所有的变量和代理各种国际贸易成本,影响国内和进口商品的相对价格的来源。这可能包括运输成本,关税和监管障碍相关的成本,以及合同执行差,不同司法管辖区的相关风险。在传统的砖和砂浆的经济,信息检索是昂贵的,需要物理传输,或者将信息传递给潜在客户或反之亦然。在这里,我们试图将信息成本从物理运输成本维度。

我们发现,地理距离相关的贸易成本的重要性确实是网上贸易大大减少,相比线下交易。另一方面,社会文化等变量的重要性语言增加和平衡距离成本下降。此外,其他交易在网上交易获得成本来源尤其突出,支付和包裹递送系统。总体而言,没有迹象表明本土偏好不显著,线上比线下,如果我们把我们的网上结果与其他文献的脱机交易。这可能是由于消费者(在企业对消费者(商对客)在线交易设置)更敏感,这些新的交易成本比企业(在企业对企业(商对商)离线交易设置)在建立线下关系相处。我们很谨慎,但是在解释这些结果,因为涉及网上贸易中介的供应链显然不同于那些参与线下交易。

2.引力模型

由于货物仍然需要身体运到消费者的网上交易,我们可以假设运输成本仍然是重要的在线交易。在线商对客贸易通常意味着个人小包裹运输而离线商对商可能来自大货物托运的规模经济效益。因此,对货物运输成本网上买可能高于线下。另一方面,对脱机交易中介数高(批发商,进口商,等)可能会增加线下交易成本。我们没有数据比较在线和离线27个欧盟成员国之间的贸易成本,因此分析限制网上交易成本只有。我们提出一个明确的包裹递送成本可变的引力方程测试在线贸易物运输成本的重要性。

引力方程可以处理国内贸易观察(I = J)。在这种情况下,国内的距离是衡量一个国家的大小。与pacchioli,2011,在应用的方法,1995和狼,2000,我们引入了国内贸易的观测变量。这是国内虚拟系数偏差指示器,或消费者对国内对外国产品偏好程度。家里的偏差系数基本措施各变量的综合影响,驱动在线(或

离线)销售,包括任何的遗漏变量的引力方程如“自然”为国内市场偏好。我们计算偏差仅为家网上交易因为我们没有在国内销售的产品信息离线。然而,我们可以用离线交易的其他作者家比较产生偏差估计。

3.数据

我们使用的数据来自27个欧盟成员国的网上消费者调查(市民咨询,2011)。调查包括对消费者的在线开支的商品信息,国内以及国外的。我们利用这些数据来构建对美国27 ×双侧27在线贸易矩阵。我们还构建了一个脱机交易矩阵同贸易伙伴之间以及同一类商品,这样我们可以比较线上与线下的贸易模式。离线交易数据是建立在对相应的在线销售产品类别的消费者调查报告数据的基础上,comext。例如,当消费者报告买书或药品在线,我们使用最近的两或四位CN品类从comext贸易数据库,在这种情况下cn30“药品”和cn4901”印刷的书籍,小册子及类似印刷材料”来计算传统跨境贸易,这些商品的价值。诚然,这些都是不完美的比赛,但应该是一个很好的代理。

在网络矩阵的构造是一个关键的问题从调查水平的人口水平外推。在国家级汇总,调查数据产生估计每个消费者平均支出在我国国家网上商品在我们假设调查平均在线消费者行为的国家我们乘这一因素,代表了互联网用户的份额和用户实际在线购买的总人口推断调查平均全国平均份额代表。我们使用欧盟统计局公布的数据为人口的百分比,是连接到互联网。然而,这是欧盟统计局对在线消费者实际购买在线和国外购买在线共享的调查数据之间的巨大差异。由于欧盟统计局的数字(43和10%的人口分别)低于调查数据(分别为63和32%),我们坚持以避免高估欧盟统计局。调查数据表明,欧盟数字议程的政策目标得到所有欧盟50%的消费者在线购买和20%其实网上购物国外已经达到了2011。

基于消费者的调查,我们估计在线商对客货物贸易总额在欧盟2410亿€2011.2的总,1970亿€(80%)是在中国国内交易。只有约440亿的€(18%)跨越国界的欧盟成员国之间,另有60亿€(2%)是从非欧盟国家进口的。

比较估计在线跨境贸易的价值(440亿€)和相应的产品类别观察离线欧盟内部贸易(4910亿€)(comext),我们认为在线贸易约占欧盟所有跨境交易8.7%。这表明商品相关类在线订单货物的物理构成跨境贸易的一个重要组成部分。

问题是到什么程度的离线和在线贸易数据实际上是相当。另一方面,离线和在线交易涉及相同的消费品销售:图书,电子产品,服装,等等这些都和最终产品的贸易额是由消费者对这些产品的需求决定的。然而,对供应链的组织是非常不同的。脱机交易主要是进行企业对企业(商对商)。批发商进出口和使用零售商作为中介机构的一个很好的到达最终消费者之前。相比之下,网上贸易主要商对客,在线批发商直接销售给最终消费者。在供应链中的可能,差异,导致不同的结构的交易成本支撑的两套贸易流动。批发商经常与外国客户建立了良好的关系,与固定成本可以摊销许多交易。交易规模可能更大,再次引发规模经济。离线商对商跨境贸易数据将必须与零售价格总利润产生贸易价值的人物,相当于直接商对客估计。因此,在线商对客代表商对商跨境贸易8.7%以上的估计应谨慎解释。

3.1文化和制度变量

当代的贸易引力模型应用通常包括贸易伙伴之间共享的语言作为解释变量,并在大多数情况下,这是重要的。这可以被认为是一种“文化距离代理”(Blum 和Goldfarb,2006)。在商对客交易环境,共同的语言是必不可少的,但语言的相对重要性可能类型的好的变化。这可能是例如书籍跨境贸易更重要,比那些或多或少在世界电子产品。我们的数据不允许我们用良好然而式贸易。我们还引入了一个虚拟的最大和最广泛的共享语言组在欧盟,英国,法国和德国,作为语言对跨境电子商务影响的另一个措施。

衡量在线交易制度质量的作用,我们构建的法律体系的一个重要质量指标,根据世界银行数据,全球治理指标。这是为了捕捉预期贸易分歧争议在线贸易进口商和出口商之间的结算相关费用。在欧盟的一个在线商对客特有的方面是,消费者购买国外还是国内法律保护消费者,而不是在出口国的法律。这意味着,消费者并不真的有选择的法律制度中,他们开展网上交易。然而,消费者可能不知道这些;因此,当他们选择外国政权,他们选择一个看起来更可信的比较法律系统的质量。一个系数接近于零,表明消费者的注意的法律问题。

3.2在线环境的质量

它是确定可能的贸易成本相关的商品在线交易的具体组织需求的重要。虽然他们可能被包含在捕捉所有的“距离”变量引入三个解释变量显式关系到整体的

有利环境,在商品的网上贸易。第一个是在线支付系统相关,运输成本的第三。因为消费者需要方便地访问在线跨境支付结算交易以最低的交易成本。我们捕获的在线支付系统的成熟的方式有两种。第一,在交付现金支付的市场份额被认为是支付系统的相对不发达的一个指标,结合在线支付和交易成本高,缺乏相互信任(钱运输)。相比于信用卡或借记卡支付系统,它是一种昂贵和危险的系统,它涉及大量现金的运输,运输和消费需要在相同的位置,相同时间点。其次,支付宝的市场份额为代理的在线支付系统,消费者信任非银行金融中介的成熟。但是可能还指出,在当地银行系统的不足,使支付宝帮助消费者规避这些缺陷。信用卡和借记卡几乎在每一个国家广泛使用,由银行系统支持。我们不接受信用卡和借记卡作为一个指标股。这些卡在所有欧盟国家中是很常见的,他们的交易是与前两变量高度负相关。事实上,在交货和支付宝现金也呈负相关。为了避免多重共线性问题,我们使用这些变量在不同的回归。由凯捷等人的世界支付报告得到了货到付款和支付宝的指标。(2011)。

n高效的快递系统在需要的地方,实际装运货物从仓库到消费者,减少物理运输成本和交货时间。如上所述,从离线到在线贸易的转变只有降低贸易成本信息成本的组成部分,而不是物理运输成本;相反,因为在包裹快递相比,散装货物的规模不经济,物质运输成本可能会增加。文献中的运输成本对贸易的作用尚不明确。lendle等人。(2012)表明,距离系数几乎是海运费用列入不受影响。在这条线的马丁内兹和诺瓦克zarzoso雷曼(2007)分析影响海上运输和公路运输成本和出口发现距离不是运输成本的一个很好的代理。kuwamori(2006)表明,距离是决定运输成本的重要,但不是决定性的。我们抓住这个引入快递成本指标:国外国内包裹快递费用的比例,从该等。(2011)。我们把国外的快递费用由贸易大国对和方向。包裹的运输成本对于一个给定的国家,对不对称。数据覆盖包裹快递费用由邮政服务,而不是商业快递服务。他们是官方公布的价格,不议价率大型在线零售商。邮政包裹快递价格可以分成两部分:成本在发送端和接收端的成本。这两个价格构成有很大的不同,不同国家往往是由邮政市场和商业快递竞争自由化程度的影响。不幸的是,我们没有独立的数据源来检查这些数据与商业快递运输成本的一致性和主要的在线零售商,拥有自己的物流网络。

4.总结和结论

我们可以套用马克吐温说“距离的死亡谣言被大大夸张了”。然而,在这个谣言是有道理的。首先,研究结果表明,地理距离的重要性是在线贸易大大减少,相比线下交易,由于在数字经济中,使消费者能够扫描更多领土,满足他们的愿望,把他们的购买订单中的信息成本的急剧减少。另一方面,有跨越语言边界相关的贸易强劲增长的成本。在距离和语言的系数的值的变化确定不同的回归模型。第二,我们跑不属于任何统计学意义到欧盟的跨境电子商务模式的观察包裹投递成本模型。然而,在线支付系统的效率是在欧盟跨境在线贸易的一个重要驱动。这使得政策制定者很少监管保证金提高跨境在线贸易。数据显示,在网上支付系统之间的兼容性和互操作性的改进将是朝正确方向迈出的一步。第三,研究结果初步表明,相比传统的线下贸易家偏不在在线市场提供明显不同。尽管降低信息成本扩大市场,促进消费者购买外,消费者仍有强烈的倾向在国内购买。语言的障碍,当然在这里起着重要的作用,但未观察到的变量也可以部分的解释其他。

欧盟政策制定者有固定的数字议程的政策目标,在越来越多的在线电子商务贸易(跨境)。这可能会令人吃惊因为贸易只是一种手段来提高消费者的福利,本身不是目的。电子商务可以通过降低交易成本,增加消费者的福利,提供更多的价格竞争多样性增加。我们的数据不允许调查这些福利的影响,虽然我们可以认为,在线交易量是一个很好的消费者的感知利益的代理指标。在这个意义上说,电子商务政策遵循欧盟的单一市场,旨在减少线下的贸易壁垒,以促进价格竞争和增加供应的多样性促进跨境贸易的脚步。电子商务极大地降低信息传输成本。这开辟了一个更广泛的地域汇水面积为消费者和供应商。本文表明,然而,(跨境)电子商务仍然受到贸易壁垒;不仅在实物交割成本和监管障碍方面也有新的贸易成本的语言市场分割和在线支付系统诱导。

消费者在线支出总额可能会随着时间的推移,越来越多的消费者成为网购和移动较大的网上购物分享更多的信心增加。这种增长潜力的重要限制是在线购物篮的组成。我们使用表明这是偏重于数量有限的商品,如电子产品,服装消费调查数据,音乐、电影和其他一些物品。网上购物篮有很大不同,从整体的消费品篮子,可能是因为其他类型的商品不适合自己这么容易在线贸易。还需要进一步的研究来解释网上消费篮子的构成和限制,探索拓宽,可以在线交易商品的范围

的方法。即使网上购物总额仍有相当大的增长潜力,重力模型表明,国内国外网上购物的比例不改变,是因为它阻碍了语言的碎片在欧盟市场。因为只有36的729美国国家间的共同语言,在线零售商想拓展海外业务是强烈建议有一系列的网站语言版本。然而,很难看出语言可能成为政策制定者的工具变量。

最后一句警告。这种分析是基于一个单一的欧盟消费者调查数据集,提供了一些独特的见解,在欧盟国家在线跨境贸易的价值和方向。显然,这些数据不具有相同的效力更为全面和详细的国际货物贸易统计,线下多年积累的。他们提供了第一次见识更努力得去建设更全面、可靠的在线跨境贸易的数据集,将使一个更详细的驱动程序和严格的测试,在线跨境贸易的障碍。进一步的工作将包括对特定产品的跨境贸易、更多的细节、运输成本和信息成本、价格。

参考文献

[1] Anderson and Van Wincoop, 2003J. Anderson, E. Van Wincoop

Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle.Am. Econ. Rev., 93 (2003), pp. 170–192

[2] Baier and Bergstrand, 2009S.L. Baier, J.H. Bergstrand

Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics.J. Int. Econ., 77 (2009), pp. 63–76

[3] Berthelon and Freund, 2008M. Berthelon, C. Freund

On the conservation of distance in international trade.J. Int. Econ., 75 (2008), pp. 310–320

[4] Blum and Goldfarb, 2006B. Blum, A. Goldfarb.Does the internet defy the law of gravity.J. Int. Econ., 70 (2006), pp. 384–405

[5] CapGemini et al., 2011CapGemini, Royal Bank of Scotland, EFMA, 2011. World Payments Report,

[6] Coughlin and Novy, 2009C. Coughlin, D. Novy.

Is the International Border Effect Larger than the Domestic Border Effect: Evidence from US Trade, Research Article Series 2009/29Nottingham University, Leverhulme Centre (2009)

[7] Disdier and Head, 2008A. Disdier, K. Head

The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade.Rev. Econ. Stat., 90 (2008), pp. 37–48

[8] Helpman et al., 2008E. Helpman, M. Melitz, Y. Rubinstein. Estimating trade flows: trading partners and trading volumesQ. J. Econ., 123 (2008), pp. 441–487

The drivers and impediments for cross-border e-commerce in

the EU

Estrella Gomez-Herrera, Bertin Martens, Geomina Turlea

Source:

Abstract

The rise of the internet is often associated with the “death of distance” or at least the decreasing relevance of geographical distance in the supply of information. We investigate whether distance still matters for online trade in physical goods. We use data from an online consumer survey panel on online cross-border trade in goods in a linguistically fragmented EU market. The analysis confirms that distance-related trade costs are greatly reduced compared to offline trade in the same goods. However, language-related trade costs increase. Moreover, online trade introduces new sources of trade costs such as parcel delivery and online payments systems. On balance, there are no indications that online trade is less biased in favour of home market products than offline trade. We examine options available to policy makers to boost cross-border e-commerce in the EU Digital Single Market. A 1% increase in the use of efficient and flexible cross-border payment systems could increase cross-border e-commerce by as much as 7%. We also show that online trade gives a comparative advantage to English-language exporting countries.

Keywords

?E-commerce;

?Gravity equation;

?European Union

1. Introduction

This paper empirically investigates the impact of online e-commerce on cross-border trade patterns. The rise of the internet and, more generally, digital communications technology, has led m any observers to announce the “death of distance” (Cairncross, 1997). In this view, it does not matter anymore where information is located since it is only a mouse click away and information costs are no longer related to physical distance. For traditional offline trade in physical goods however, the evidence actually points to an increase in distance costs (Disdier and Head, 2008). Trade is based on a combination of information and physical shipping of goods. The question is whether shifting trade from offline to online platforms makes a sufficiently large dent in information costs to change total trade costs and therefore the pattern of trade in goods. Blum and Goldfarb (2006) show that even for pure information products, distance still plays a significant role. They attribute this to cultural differences that increase with physical distance. Apart from information cost

effects, there may be secondary effects that affect trade patterns. Online trade opens up a potentially much larger geographical catchment area, both for suppliers and consumers, with an increase in variety of available products and in price competition. Both factors would favour a relative shift away from offline and towards online trade. However, new sources of information trade costs may arise online that may slow down or even reverse this trend. New information costs may be attributable to linguistic, cultural and institutional differences and the trade costs related to the operations of e-commerce infrastructure.

We apply this framework to a unique dataset of cross-border e-commerce in goods obtained from an online consumer survey (Civic Consulting, 2011) in a linguistically fragmented EU market to explore policy options to boost the EU Digital Single Market. According to the European Commission (2012), ten years after the adoption of the EU E-Commerce Directive, e-commerce is still limited to less than 4% of total European cross-border e-commerce trade and considers that this is far below its full potential. The Commission’s Digital Agenda for Europe aims to get 50% of all European citizens to buy online and 20% to engage in online cross-border transactions by 2015. The question is whether the potential for cross-border transactions is higher in e-commerce than in offline trade.

We investigate three potential sources of changes in online trade costs, compared to offline trade. First, the shift from ordinary offline trade to internet-enabled online trade may reduce the importance of geographical distance-related trade costs. While distance may no longer matter for information and purely digital products and services (Blum and Goldfarb, 2006), goods still need to be physically transported, and sometimes cross borders between different regulatory regimes, to reach the buyer. Consequently, only part of the total trade costs is affected by the shift from analogue to digital information technology. Second, we assess the role of cultural and institutional factors, such as language and the quality of legal institutions, as determinants of online trade patterns. As distance-related trade costs diminish, the relative importance of other sources of costs may increase. Third, online trading platforms for physical goods require specific infrastructure, such as flexible online payment systems and cost-efficient parcel delivery systems. We gauge their contribution to explaining online trade patterns. Finally, we combine all these sources of online trade costs and look at the net effect of positive and negative contributions, as measured by the degree of home bias or the “natural” preference for home market products.

The analytical tool that we use for this purpose is the gravity model of cross-border international trade, the standard workhorse for explaining international trade flows in the offline economy (Anderson and Van Wincoop, 2003). This model is rooted in the Newtonian idea that many of the observed patterns of international trade flows can be explained by the economic size of the trading partners and their physical distance. “Distance” can be more broadly interpreted as a catch-all variable and proxy for various sources of international trade costs that affect the relative price of domestic and imported goods. This may include physical transport costs, the cost

associated with import tariffs and regulatory barriers, and risks related to poor contract enforcement between different jurisdictions. In a traditional bricks and mortar economy, information retrieval is costly and requires physical transport, either to bring information to potential customers or vice versa. Here, we try to separate the information cost from the physical transport cost dimension.

We find that that the importance of geographical distance-related trade costs is indeed greatly reduced in online trade, compared to offline trade. On the other hand, socio-cultural variables such as language increase in importance and counterbalance the declining cost of distance. Moreover, other sources of trade costs gain in prominence for online transactions, in particular payments and parcel delivery systems. Overall, there are no indications that home bias is less significant online than offline, if we compare our online results with others in the offline trade literature. This may be due to the fact that consumers (in a business-to-consumer (B2C) online trade setting) are more sensitive to these new sources of trade costs than businesses (in a business-to-business (B2B) offline trade setting) dealing with each other in more established offline relationships. We are cautious however in interpreting these findings because the supply chain of intermediaries involved in online trade clearly differs from those involved in offline trade.

2.The gravity model

Since goods still need to be physically transported to the consumer following an online transaction, we can assume that transport costs remain important in online trade. Online B2C trade usually implies transport of individual small parcels while offline B2B may benefit from economies of scale in large cargo consignments. Consequently, physical transport costs for goods bought online could actually be higher than offline. On the other hand, the higher number of intermediaries in offline trade (wholesalers, importers, etc.) may add to offline trade costs. We have no data to compare online and offline trade costs between 27 EU member states and therefore limit the analysis to online trade costs only. We introduce an explicit parcel delivery cost variable in the gravity equation to test the importance of physical transport costs for online trade.

The gravity equation can also handle observations on domestic trade (i = j). In that case, domestic distance is a measure of the size of a country. In line with the methodology applied by Pacchioli, 2011, McCallum, 1995 and Wolf, 2000, we introduce a dummy variable for domestic trade observations. The coefficient of this dummy is an indicator of home bias, or the extent of consumer preference for domestic over foreign products. The home bias factor essentially measures the combined impact of all the variables that drive online (or offline) sales, including any omitted variables in th e gravity equation such as “natural” preference for the home market. We calculate home bias only for online trade since we have no information on domestic sales for offline products. However, we can compare with home bias estimates for offline trade produced by other authors.

3. Data

We use data from an online consumer survey in the 27 EU Member States (Civic Consulting, 2011). The survey contains information on consumer online expenditure on goods only, at home as well as abroad. We use these data to construct a 27 × 27 bilateral online trade matrix for the EU27. We also construct an offline trade matrix between the same trading partners and for the same types of goods, so that we can compare online and offline trade patterns. The offline trade data are constructed on the basis of Comext data for the corresponding online sales product categories reported in the consumer survey. For example, when consumers report buying books or pharmaceuticals online, we use the nearest two- or four-digit CN goods category from the Comext trade database, in this case CN30 “Pharmaceuticals” and CN4901 “printed books, brochures and similar printed materials” to calculate the value of offline traditional cross-border trade for these goods. Admittedly, these are not perfect matches but should represent a good proxy.

A critical issue in the construction of the online matrix is the extrapolation from survey level to population level. Aggregated at the national level, the survey data produce an estimate for average expenditure per consumer in country i on online goods in country j. We assume that the survey average is representative of online consumer behaviour in country i. We multiply this with a factor that represents the share of internet users and the share of users who actually buy online in the total population to extrapolate the survey average to the national average. We use Eurostat data for the percentage of population that is connected to the internet . However, there is a large difference between the Eurostat and the survey figures for the share of online consumers who actually buy online and buy online abroad. Since the Eurostat figures (43 and 10% of the population respectively) are lower than the survey figures (63 and 32% respectively), we stick to Eurostat to avoid overestimation. The survey figures would suggest that the EU Digital Agenda policy targets of getting 50% of all EU consumers to buy online and 20% actually shopping online abroad have already been reached in 2011.

Based on the consumer survey, we estimate the total value of online B2C trade in goods in the EU at 241 billion € in 2011.2Out of that total, 197 billion € (80%) is traded domestically. Only about 44 billion € (18%) crosses borders between EU Member States, and another 6 billion € (2%) is imported from non-EU countries.

Comparing the value of estimated onl ine cross border trade (44 billion €) and observed offline intra-EU trade in the corresponding products categories (491 billion €) (Comext), we conclude that online trade represents about 8.7% of all cross-border trade in the EU. This indicates that online orders for the relevant categories of goods constitute a significant part of physical cross-border trade in goods.

The question arises to what extent the offline and online trade figures are actually comparable. On the one hand, offline and online trade involve the sale of identical consumer products: books, electronics, clothing, etc. These are final products and the trade volume is determined by consumer demand for these goods. However, the organisation of both supply chains is very different. Offline trade is mostly conducted business-to-business (B2B). Wholesalers export and import and use retailers as intermediaries before a good reaches the final consumer. By contrast, online trade is mostly B2C, with online wholesalers selling directly to final consumers. Differences in supply chains may, in turn, result in differences in the structure of the trade costs that underpin the two sets of trade flows. Wholesalers often have established relations with their foreign customers, with a fixed cost that can be amortized over many transactions. Transaction size is likely to be larger, again inducing economies of scale. Offline B2B cross-border trade figures would have to be augmented with retail gross price margins to produce a trade value figure that is comparable to direct B2C estimates. The above estimate of online B2C representing 8.7% of B2B cross-border trade should therefore be interpreted with caution.

3.1. Cultural and institutional variables

Contemporary applications of the gravity trade model routinely include shared language between trading partners as an explanatory variable, and in most cases this turns out to be significant. This could be considered as a proxy for “cultural distance” (Blum and Goldfarb, 2006). In a B2C trading environment a shared language is essential, though the relative importance of language may vary by type of good. It is likely to be more important for cross-border trade in books for instance, than for electronic goods that are more or less standardized across the world. Our dataset does not allow us to separate trade by type of good however. We also introduce a dummy for the largest and most widely shared language groups in the EU, English, French and German, as another measure of language influence on cross-border e-commerce.

To measure the role of institutional quality in online trade, we construct an indicator of the quality of the legal system, based on the World Bank dataset of global governance indicators. This is meant to capture the differences in expected trade costs related to dispute settlement between importers and exporters in online trade. One peculiar aspect of online B2C in the EU is that consumers buying abroad are still protected by consumer laws at home, not the law in the exporting country. This means that consumers do not really have a choice of legal regime in which they carry out their online transactions. Still, consumers may not be aware of this; hence, when they choose between foreign regimes, they choose the one that looks more trustworthy after comparing the quality of both legal systems. A coefficient close to zero would indicate that consumers are aware of the legal issues.

3.2. Quality of the online enabling environment

It is important to identify possible trade costs linked to the specific organisational needs of online transactions in goods. Though they may be subsumed in the catch-all “distance” variable we introduce three explanatory variables explicitly related to the overall enabling environment for online trade in goods. The first two are related to online payment systems, the third to transport costs. Since consumers need to have easy access to online means of cross-border payments to settle a transaction at the lowest possible transaction cost. We capture the maturity of online payment systems in two ways. First, the market share of cash payments on delivery is considered to be an indicator of the relative underdevelopment of payments systems, combined with an absence of trust in online payments and high transaction costs (the transport of money). Compared to credit or debit card payment systems, it is a costly and risky system as it involves the transport of large amounts of cash, and transporter and consumer need to be available at the same location and at the same point in time. Second, the market share of PayPal is taken as a proxy of the maturity of online payment systems whereby consumers trust a non-bank financial intermediary. It may however also point to deficiencies in the local banking system so that PayPal helps consumers to circumvent these deficiencies. Credit and debit cards are widely available in almost every country and supported by the banking system. We do not take the share of credit and debit cards as an indicator. These cards are very common in all EU countries and their share of transactions is highly negatively correlated with the previous two variables. In fact, cash-on-delivery and PayPal are also negatively correlated. To avoid multicollinearity problems we use these variables in separate regressions. Both cash-on-delivery and PayPal indicators are obtained from the World Payments Report by CapGemini et al. (2011).

An efficient parcel delivery system needs to be in place to physically ship the goods from their warehouses to the consumer and to minimize physical transport costs and delivery time. As argued above, the shift from offline to online trade only reduces the information cost component of trade costs, not the physical transport cost; on the contrary, because of diseconomies of scale in parcel delivery compared to bulk cargo, physical transport costs may actually increase. The role of transport costs on trade is not unambiguous in the literature. Lendle et al. (2012) show that the distance coefficient is almost not affected by the inclusion of shipping costs. In this line Martinez-Zarzoso and Nowak-Lehman (2007) analyze the determinants of maritime transport and road transport costs for exports and find that distance is not a good proxy for transportation costs. Kuwamori (2006) show that distance is important to determine transport costs, but not decisive. We capture this by introducing a parcel delivery cost indicator: the ratio of foreign to domestic parcel delivery costs, taken from Meschi et al. (2011). We take foreign parcel delivery costs by country pair and direction of trade. Parcel transport costs are asymmetric for a given country pair. The data cover parcel delivery costs by postal services, not commercial courier services. They are officially reported prices, not negotiated price rates for large online retailers. Postal parcel delivery prices can be broken down in two components: costs at the sending end and costs at the receiving end. These two price components vary

considerably across countries and are often affected by the extent of liberalisation of postal markets and competition with commercial couriers. Unfortunately, we have no independent data sources to check the consistency of these data with transport costs for commercial couriers and for major online retailers that have their own logistics networks.

4. Summary and conclusions

We could paraphrase Marc Twain and say that “rumours about the death of distance are greatly exaggerated”. Nevertheless, there is some truth in this rumour. First, the results show that the importance of geographical distance is strongly reduced in online trade, compared to offline trade, due to a drastic reduction in information costs in the digital economy that enables consumers to scan a much wider territory to satisfy their wishes and place their buying orders. On the other hand, there is a strong increase in the trade costs associated with crossing linguistic borders. The change in coefficient values for distance and language is confirmed across different regression models. Second, the models that we run do not attribute any statistical significance to the cost of parcel delivery in the observed patterns of cross-border e-commerce in the EU. However, the efficiency of online payments systems is an important driver for cross-border online trade in the EU. This leaves policy makers with little regulatory margin to boost cross-border online trade. The data only demonstrate that improvements in compatibility and interoperability between online payment systems would be a step in the right direction. Third, the results provide a preliminary indication that home bias is not significantly different in online markets compared to traditional offline trade. Despite the fact that reduced information costs widen the market for consumers and facilitate buying abroad, consumers still have a strong tendency to buy at home. Language barriers certainly play an important role here, but other as yet unobserved variables may also be part of the explanation.

EU policy makers have fixed Digital Agenda policy targets for e-commerce in terms of increasing volumes of online (cross-border) trade. This might be surprising because trade is only a means to enhance consumer welfare, not an end in itself. E-commerce can boost consumer welfare through lower transaction costs, increased diversity of supply and more price competition. Our data do not allow an investigation of these welfare effects though we can assume that the volume of online trade is a good proxy indicator of consumers’ perceiv ed benefits. In that sense, e-commerce policy follows in the footsteps of the EU offline Single Market that aims to reduce trade barriers and boost cross-border trade with a view to stimulate price competition and increase the diversity of supply. E-commerce dramatically reduces the transport cost of information. This opens up a much wider geographical catchment area for consumers and suppliers. This paper shows however that (cross-border) e-commerce is still subject to trade barriers; not only in terms of physical delivery costs and regulatory barriers but also new trade costs induced by linguistic market segmentation and online payments systems.

The total volume of consumer online expenditure is likely to increase over time as more consumers become more confident with online shopping and move a larger share of their shopping online. An important limit on that growth potential is the composition of the online shopping basket. The consumer survey data that we use show that this is heavily biased towards a limited number of goods such as electronics, clothing, music/film and a few other items. The online shopping basket differs considerably from the overall consumer goods basket, probably because other types of goods do not lend themselves so easily to online trade. Further research is also needed to explain the composition and restrictions on the online consumer basket and explore ways to widen the range of goods that can be traded online. Even if the total volume of online shopping still has very considerable growth potential, the gravity model indicates that the ratio of domestic to foreign online shopping may not change that much because it is held back by linguistic fragmentation in the EU market. Since only 36 out of 729 EU27 country pairs share a common language, online retailers who want to expand their business abroad are strongly advised to have a range of language versions of their websites. However, it is difficult to see how language could become an instrumental variable for policy makers.

A final word of caution. This analysis is based on a single EU consumer survey data set that offers some unique insights into the value and direction of online cross-border trade between EU countries. Obviously, these data do not have the same validity as the far more comprehensive and detailed international offline trade in goods statistics that have accumulated over the years. They offer a first insight but more effort will have to go into the construction of more comprehensive and reliable online cross-border trade data sets that will enable a more detailed and rigorous testing of the drivers and impediments to online cross-border trade. Further work would have to include more details on product-specific cross-border trade, transport costs, prices and information costs.

参考文献

[1] Anderson and Van Wincoop, 2003J. Anderson, E. Van Wincoop

Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle.Am. Econ. Rev., 93 (2003), pp. 170–192

[2] Baier and Bergstrand, 2009S.L. Baier, J.H. Bergstrand

Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics.J. Int. Econ., 77 (2009), pp. 63–76

[3] Berthelon and Freund, 2008M. Berthelon, C. Freund

On the conservation of distance in international trade.J. Int. Econ., 75 (2008), pp. 310–320

[4] Blum and Goldfarb, 2006B. Blum, A. Goldfarb.Does the internet defy the law of gravity.J. Int. Econ., 70 (2006), pp. 384–405

[5] CapGemini et al., 2011CapGemini, Royal Bank of Scotland, EFMA, 2011. World Payments Report,

[6] Coughlin and Novy, 2009C. Coughlin, D. Novy.

Is the International Border Effect Larger than the Domestic Border Effect: Evidence from US Trade, Research Article Series 2009/29Nottingham University, Leverhulme Centre (2009)

[7] Disdier and Head, 2008A. Disdier, K. Head

The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade.Rev. Econ. Stat., 90 (2008), pp. 37–48

[8] Helpman et al., 2008E. Helpman, M. Melitz, Y. Rubinstein. Estimating trade flows: trading partners and trading volumesQ. J. Econ., 123 (2008), pp. 441–487

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