3 FDI

3 FDI
3 FDI

Chapter 3 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Learning objectives

1.Be familiar with current trends regarding FDI in the world economy.

2.Understand different theories of foreign direct investment.

3.Understand the benefits and costs of FDI to home and host countries.

4.Articulate the implications for management practice associated with FDI.

1 Introduction

Foreign direct investment occurs when a firm invests directly in facilities to produce or market a product in a foreign country. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, FDI occurs whenever a U.S. citizen, organization, or affiliated group takes an interest of 10% or more in a foreign business entity. Once a firm undertakes FDI, it becomes a multinational enterprise.

FDI takes on two main forms: The first is a Greenfield investment, which involves the establishment of a new operation in a foreign country. The second involves acquiring or merging with an existing firm in the foreign country. Acquisitions can be as a majority (where the foreign firm takes 10% to 49% interest in the firm’s voting), minortiy (foreign interest of 50% to 99% ), or foreign full outright stake(foreign interest of 100%).

We begin this chapter by looking at the importance of FDI in the world economy. Next, we review the theories that have been used to explain FDI. The chapter then moves on to look at government policy toward FDI and closes with a section on implications for business.

2 Foreign Direct Investment in the World Economy

When discussing FDI, it is important to distinguish between the flow of FDI and the stock of FDI. The flow of FDI refers to the amount of FDI under taken over a given time period (normally a year). The stock of FDI refers to the total accumulated value of foreign-owned assets at a given time. When we talk about Outflows of FDI, meaning the flow of FDI out of a country, and inflows of FDI, the flow of FDI into a country.

2.1 Trends in FDI

The past 30 years have seen a marked increase in both the flow and stock of FDI in the world economy. The average yearly outflow of FDI increased from $25billion in 1975 to a record $1.2 trillion. It fell back in the early 2000s, but by 2006 FDI flows were again around $ 1.2 trillion. Over this period, the flow of FDI accelerated faster than the growth in world trade and world output.

FDI has grown more rapidly than world trade and world output for several reasons.

First, despite the general decline in trade barriers over the past 30years, business firms still fear protectionist pressures. Executives see FDI as a way of circumventing future trade barriers. Second, much of the recent increase in FDI is being driven by the political and economic changes that have been occurring in many of the world’s developing nations. The globalization of the world economy is also having a positive impact on the volume of FDI.

2.2 The Direction of FDI

Historically, most FDI has been directed at the developed nations of the world as firms based in advanced countries invested in the others’ markets. During the 1980s and 1990s, the United States was often the favorite target for FDI inflows for its large and wealthy domestic markets, its dynamic and stable economy, a favorable political environment, and the openness of the country to FDI.

Even though developed nations still account for the largest share of FDI inflows, FDI into developing nations has increased. Most recent inflows into developing nations have been targeted at the emerging economies of South, East, and Southeast Asia. Driving much of the increase has been the growing importance of China as a recipient of FDI.

Latin America emerged as the next important region in the developing world for FDI inflows.

2.3 The source of FDI

Since world war, the United States has been the largest source country for FDI, a position it retained during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Other important source countries include the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Japan. Collectively, these six countries accounted for 57% of all FDI outflows for the 1998-2005 period and 61% of the total global stock of FDI in 2006.

2.4 The form of FDI: Acquisition versus Greenfields investment

FDI can take the form of a Greenfield investment in a new facility or an acquisition of or a merger with an existing local firm. The data suggest the majority of cross-border investment is in the form of mergers and acquisitions rather than Greenfield investment.

When contemplating FDI, why do firms apparently prefer to acquire existing assets rather than undertake Greenfield investments? First, mergers and acquisitions are quicker to execute than Greenfield investments. Second, foreign firms are acquired because those firms have valuable strategic assets. Third, firms make acquisitions because they believe they can increase the efficiency of the acquired unit by transferring capital, technology, or management skills.

2.5 The shift to service: FDI of transnational banks

In the past 30 years, the sector composition of FDI has shifted sharply away from extractive industries and manufacturing and toward services. In 1990, some 47% of FDI stock was in service industries; by 2004, the figure had increased to 66%. Similar trends can be seen in the composition of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, in which services are playing a much larger role.

The shift to services is being driven by four factors that will probably continue to be important for some time. First, the shift reflects the general move in many developed economies away from manufacturing and toward service industries. Second, many services can’t be traded internationally. Finally, the rise of internet-based global telecommunications networks has allowed some service enterprises to relocate some of their value-creation activities to different nations to take advantage of favorable factor costs.

3 Theories of Foreign Direct Investment

In this section, we review several theories of FDI. These theories approach the various phenomena of FDI from three complementary perspectives.

3.1 Why FDI occurs?

3.1.1 Limitations of FDI

The viability of an exporting strategy is often constrained by transportation costs and trade barriers. When transportation costs are added to production costs, it becomes unprofitable to ship some products over a large distance. Transportation costs aside, some firms undertake foreign FDI as a response to actual or threatened trade barriers such as import tariff and quotas. B y placing tariffs on imported goods, governments can increase the cost of exporting relative to FDI and licensing..

3.1.2 Limitations of Licensing

A branch of economic theory known as internalization theory seeks to explain why firms often prefer FDI over licensing as a strategy for entering foreign markets(this approach is also known as the market imperfections approach).According to internalization theory, limitations of Licensing are as below:

First, licensing may r esult in a firm’s giving away valuable technological know-how to a potential foreign competitor. A second problem is that licensing does not give a firm the tight control over manufacturing, marketing, and strategy in a foreign country that may be required to maximize its profitability.

A third problem with licensing arises when the firms competitive advantage is based not as much on its products as on the management, marketing, and manufacturing capabilities that produce those products. The problem is that such abilities are often not amendable to licensing.

3.2 The pattern of FDI

3.2.1 Strategic behavior

In 1973, Knicker bocker published the book of "reaction and multinational monopoly," further developed the Bruckheimer –Kind leberger's "monopoly advantages theory." Through his analysis investment behaviors of 187 U.S. multinational companies, found that foreign direct investment depended largely on the behaviors, constraints and responses between competitors in some oligopolistic industry,. Knicker bocker's theory was based on the analysis of industry structure and market structure, market structure were divided into three categories: (1) a perfectly competitive market; (2) tension-type oligopoly markets; (3) Loose oligopoly.

3.2.2 The product life cycle

Raymond Vernon’s product life-cycle theory also can be used to explain FDI. Vernon’s view is that firms undertake FDI at particular stages in the life cycle of a product they have pioneered. They invest in other advanced countries when local demand in those countries grows large enough to support local production. They subsequently shift production to developing countries when product standardization and market saturation give rise to price competition and cost pressures. Investment in developing countries, where labor costs are lower, is seen as the best way to reduce costs.

3.3 The Eclectic Paradigm

British economist John Dunning has championed the eclectic paradigm Dunning argues that in addition to the various factors discussed above, location-specific advantages are also of considerable importance in explaining both the rational for and the direction of FDI. Dunning means the location-specific advantages that arise from utilizing resource endowments or assets that are tied to a particular foreign location and that a firm finds valuable to combine with its own unique assets.

4 Benefits and Costs of FDI

4.1 Host-country benefits

The main benefits of inward FDI for a host country arise from resource-transfer effects, employment effects, and balance-of-payments effects.

4.1.1 Resource-Transfer Effects

FDI can make a positive contribution to a host economy by supplying capital, technology, and management resources that would otherwise not be available and thus boost that country’s economic growth rate.

With regard to capital, many MNEs by virtue of their large size and financial strength have access to financial resources not available to host-country firms. These funds may be available from internal company resources, or because of their reputation, large MNEs may find it easier to borrow money from capital markets than host-country firms would.

4.1.2 Employment Effects

Another beneficial employment effect claimed for FDI is that it brings jobs to a host country that would otherwise not be created there. The effects of FDI on employment are both direct and indirect. Direct effects arise when a foreign MNE employs a

number of host-country citizens. Indirect effects arise when jobs are created because of increased local spending by employees of the MNE. The indirect effects are often as large as , if not larger than the direct effects.

4.1.3 Balance-of-payments Effects

First, if the FDI is a substitute for imports of goods or services, the effect can be to improve the current account of the host country’s balance-of-payments. A second potential benefit arises when the MNE uses a foreign subsidiary to report goods and services to other countries.

4.2 Host-country costs

These costs of FDI concern host countries. They arise from possible adverse effects on competition within the host nation, adverse effects on the balance of payments, and the perceived loss of national sovereignty and autonomy.

4.2.1 Adverse effects on competition

Once the market is monopolized, the foreign MNE could raise prices above those that would prevail in competitive markets, with harmful effects on the economic welfare of the host nation.

4.2.2 Adverse effects on balance-of-payments

The possible adverse effects of FDI on a host country’s balance-of-payments position are twofold.

First, the initial capital inflow that comes with FDI must be set against the subsequent outflow of earnings from the foreign subsidiary to its parent company.

A second concern arises when a foreign subsidiary imports a substantial number of its inputs from abroad, which results in a debt on the current account of the host country’s home country.

4.2.3 National sovereignty and autonomy

Some host countries worry about FDI is accompanied by some loss of economic independence. The concern is that key decisions that can affect the host country\s economy will be made by a foreign parent that has no real commitment to the host country and over which the host country’s government has no real control.

4.3 Home-country benefits

The benefits of FDI to the home country arise from three sources. First, the home country’s balance of payments benefits from the inward flow of foreign earnings. Second, benefits to the home country from outward FDI arise from employment effects. As with the balance of payments, positive employment effects arise when the foreign subsidiary creates demand for home-country exports.

Third, benefits arise when the home-country MNE learns valuable skills from its exposure to foreign markets that can subsequently be transferred back to the home country. This amounts to a reverse resource-transfer effect.

4.4 Home-country costs

Against these benefits must be set the apparent costs of FDI for the home country. The most important concerns center on the balance-of-payments and employment effects of outward FDI. First, the balance of payments suffers from the initial capital outflow required to finance the FDI. Second, the current account of the balance of payments suffers if the purpose of the foreign investment is to serve the home market from a

low-cost production location. Third, the current account of the balance of payments suffers if the FDI is a substitute for direct exports.

5 Government Policy Instrument and FDI

5.1 Home-country Policy

Through their choice of policies, home countries can both encourage and restrict FDI by local firms. We look at policies designed to encourage outward FDI first, including foreign risk insurance, tax incentives, and political pressure.

5.1.1 Encouraging outward FDI

Many investor nations now have government-backed insurance programs to cover major types of foreign investment risk. The types of risks insurable through these programs include the risks of expropriation, war losses, and the inability to transfer profits back home. In addition to government-backed insurance programs, special funds and banks that make government loans to firms to undertake investments in developing countries

5.1.2 Restricting outward FDI

One policy has been to limit capital outflows out of concern for the country’s balance of payments. In addition, countries have occasionally manipulated tax rules to try to encourage their firms to invest at home. Finally, countries sometimes prohibit national firms from investing in certain countries for political reasons. Such restrictions can be formal or informal.

5.2 Host-country Policy

Host countries adopt policies designed both to restrict and to encourage inward FDI. 5.2.1 Encouraging inward FDI

It is common for government to offer incentives to foreign firms to invest in their countries. Such incentives take many forms, but the most common are tax concessions, low-interest loans, and grants or subsidies. Incentives are motivated by a desire to gain from the resource-transfer and employment effects of FDI. They are also motivated by a desire to capture FDI away from other to attract FDI.

5.2.2 Restricting inward FDI

Host countries use a wide range of controls to restrict FDI in one way or another. The two most common are ownership restrains and performance requirements. Ownership restraints can take several forms.

The rationale underlying ownership restraints seems to be twofold. First, foreign ownership are often excluded from certain sectors on the grounds of national security or competition. Second, ownership restraints seem to be based on a belief that local owners can help maximize the resource-transfer and employment benefits of FDI for the host countries.

Performance requirements can also take several forms. Performance requirements are controls over the behavior of the MNE’s local subsidiary. The most common performance requirements are related to local content, exports, technology transfer, and local participation in top management.

5.3 Government Policy

A host government’s attitude toward FDI should be an important variabl e in decisions about where to locate foreign production facilities and where to make FDI. From the perspective of a firm negotiating the terms of an investment with a host government, the firm’s bargaining power is high when the host government places a high value on what the firm has to offer, the number of comparable alternatives open to the firm is greater, and the firm has a long time in which to complete the negotiations. To a large degree, the outcome of any negotiated agreement depends on the relative bargaining power of both parties. Each side’s bargaining power depends on three factors:

The value each side places on what the other has to offer

The number of comparable alternatives available to each side

Each party’s time horizon

Exercises

Nouns Explanation

Internalization theory

The product life cycle theory,

Asks and answers

Try to compare bellowing theory of FDI: internalization theory, the product life cycle theory, theory of FDI of Knicker bocker's theory

Research taskes

Your company is considering opening a new factory in Latin America, and management I sin the process of evaluating the specific country locations for this direct investment. The pool of candidate countries has been narrowed to Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil. Prepare a short report from a well-known organization’s publication of country Fact Sheets to compare the foreign direct investment environment and regulations of these countries.

一,FDI(国际直接投资)范文

第八章知识点 一、FDI(国际直接投资) 是现代的资本国际化的主要形式之一,按照国际货币基金组织的定义FDI是指:在投资人以外的国家所经营的企业拥有持续利益的一种投资,其目的在于对该企业的经营管理具有发言权。 跨国公司是FDI的主要形式。 1、外国直接投资之利 外国直接投资对我国经济增长的积极影响主要包括六个方面:1、增加国内投资和促进资本形成;2、吸纳劳动力就业;3、提高综合要素生产率TFP;4、促进我国的产业结构升级;5、扩大我国的外贸规模,改善我国的外贸结构,促进对外贸易的发展;6、是我国一项重要的税收来源。 首先,大量FDI流入的最直接作用是增加了我国的资本存量,有效弥补了钱纳利等人提出的储蓄-外汇双缺口。 其次,外商投资企业吸纳了我国大量的劳动力就业,根据相关统计资料计算我国1990-1999年这10年中外商投资经济新增从业人员565万人,缓解了我国的就业压力,直接或间接地促进了农村剩余劳动力向非农产业的转移,促进了我国的经济增长。 第三,FDI提高了我国的综合要素生产率,在总体上FDI确实提高了我国的综合要素生产率(尽管在后面的分析中我们将谈到外资企业在保守先进技术方面对中方的损害),这主要是因为FDI是一揽子创造性投资,随着资金的转移,观念、研究与开发、技术、管理、营销、市场网络等也会随之移向受资方。 第四,从我国利用外国直接投资的产业结构来看,FDI主要集中在第二产业,2000年我国利用外商直接投资项目数的72.75%,合同外资的73.72%集中在第二产业;截至2000年我国利用外国直接投资项目数的72.99%,合同外资的60.87%集中在第二产业;从我国利用外国直接投资的行业结构来看,FDI主要集中在制造业。而从改革开放后我国产业结构的变化特征看,除1978-1983年期间第一产业产值比重有所上升外,其他年度第一产业产值比重均呈逐年递减态势,第二产业和第三产业产值比重不断上升,因此外资大量流入并投向第二、第三产业是促进我国产业结构转变的重要因素。同时,与外国直接投资相伴而来的先进生产技术和管理技术及其扩散效应和示范效应,促进了国内利用外资行业的技术进步和劳动生产率的相对提高,也间接促进了产业结构的转变。 第五,FDI企业的进出口比率远远高于国内其他企业,海关统计资料显示,1999年外商投资企业进出口总额1745.11,占全国进出口总额的48.39%,其中进口比重为53.5%,出口比重为44.0%,有力地推动了我国外贸进出口规模的扩大。FDI企业优化我国贸易结构的贡献主要表现在使我国享受全球分工的好处、促进出口和提升进出口商品结构上。1998年我国进出口工业制成品所占比重分别为83.59%和88.79%,而同期外资企业进出口工业制成品比重分别为90.70%和94.18%,均高于国内平均水平。最后,外国直接投资企业还为我国提高了一笔可观的税收收入。 2、外国直接投资之弊

外商投资项下FDI业务资本项目信息系统操作简要手册银行版FDI基础知识

外商投资项下(FDI)业务资本项目信息系统操作简要手册(银行版) 一、外商投资企业外汇登记基础概念 (一)外商投资企业 一般来讲,外国投资者于中国境内出资设立的企业即为外商投资企业。与中国境内投资者一起出资的称中外合资企业,无中国境内投资者出资的称外商独资企业。 (二)外商投资企业外汇登记 外商投资企业经前置部门批准设立后,需至后续相关各个政府部门办理信息登记采集手续,其中至外汇局办理的手续名为外汇登记。当前暂因各部门间电子信息共享尚在建设过程中,仍需企业凭前置部门颁发的纸质证书至后续各部门办理信息登记手续。 (三)外商投资企业的初始登记、变更登记和注销登记 外商投资企业按照生命周期划分为设立、变更、注销,各政府部门的登记手续也区分为设立登记、变更登记、注销登记,可能称呼略有不同。 设立按照方式不同,分为新设立、转股并购设立、增资并购设立;新设立为全新设立一个企业;转股并购设立为外国投资者收购原中国投资者持有的既存内资企业股份,导致该企业成为外商投资企业;增资并购设立为外国投资者对境内既存的内资企业增加注册资本,导致该企业成为外商投资企业,且中国投资者持有股份被稀释。 变更按照具体内容不同,分为基本信息变更、资本信息变更。其

中,基本信息变更包括:名称、地址、经营范围、法人代表、行业类型等;资本信息变更包括:增减资本、股权转让、出资方式调整等原因引起的各投资者所持有资本份额变动。 注销按照原因区分为提前解散和到期清算。 外汇局办理前述设立、变更、注销登记的过程是将企业当次交易过程中的交易对手、交易金额、资本变动等重要信息录入至相关信息系统中,然后结合从银行采集到的对应交易发生的实际资金流动数据,进行比较和分析,以实现非现场监测和统计。 (四)注册资本和认缴出资金额 注册资本,一般用来表示企业规模和及用来衡量各投资方权利和义务比例;实收资本,企业登记的注册资本逐次到位后的累计金额; 认缴出资额,一般用来计算各投资方应该缴入多少资金才能取得相应注册资本所占比例的权利;实缴出资金额,企业逐次缴入的累计金额; 两者一一对应,每1单位的注册资本必然有相应的认缴出资金额;按照对应金额的多少,区分为平价出资(如:1元注册资本对1元出资金额)、溢价出资(如:1元注册资本对3元出资金额)、折价出资(如:1元注册资本对0.5元出资金额); 举例: 平价出资情况下,每实际缴入1元出资额,则注册资本到位1元,即实收资本增加1元。 溢价出资情况下,每实际缴入3元出资额,则注册资本到位1

国际直接投资(FDI)第一章

国际直接投资(FDI)第一章

第二章国际直接投资动机与效应 一、西方主流理论 ?五种关于发达国家FDI的理论 垄断优势理论、产品寿命周期理论、内部化理论、国际生产折衷理论、比较优势理论 ?三种关于发展中国家FDI的理论 投资发展阶段理论、投资诱发要素组合理论、小规模技术理论 FDI理论主要回答三个W ?投资动机,why ?投资流向, where ?投资决策, what 垄断优势理论 ?作者:海默,美国麻省理工大学教授 ?理论产生的背景 ?基本观点 1、垄断优势是推动企业进行FDI的决定因素,是企业从事FDI的前提条件。 2、垄断优势的形成 3、垄断优势的表现 4、评价 ?历史地位:国际直接投资理论的先驱,开创了国际直接投资理论的先河 产品生命周期理论 ?作者:弗农,美国哈佛大学教授 ?基本观点:FDI的发生与产品生命周期有关 创新阶段——产品在本国生产、本国销售 成长阶段——产品本国生产,向发达国家出口(出口发生) 成熟阶段(标准化阶段)——产品转移至低成本国家生产(FDI发生),产品返 销本国

内部化理论 ?作者:巴克雷和卡森,英国经济学家 ?基本观点 1、提出了内部化市场的概念 2、内部化的原因 3、内部化的原则 4、当内部化跨越了国界,FDI就发生了。 国际生产折衷理论 ?作者:邓宁,英国经济学家 ?基本观点 1、归纳了三种优势(OIL):所有权优势、内部化优势、区位优势 2、认为三种优势的不同组合将决定企业国际经营活动的方式 三种优势组合的结果 比较优势理论 ?作者:小岛清,日本以桥大学教授 ?基本观点 1、FDI与国际贸易应为互补关系,不是替代关系 2、FDI的顺序:从本国比较劣势的产业(边际产业)、但对东道国具有比较优势的产业依次进行 3、美国式的FDI是“逆贸易导向”,日本式的FDI是“顺贸易导向” 投资发展阶段论 ?作者:邓宁,英国经济学家 ?基本观点 1、三优势的发展状况与一国的经济发展水平有关; 2、FDI流入与流出取决于一国的经济发展阶段和三优势发展状况; 3、提出了对外投资发展的四个阶段

全球外国直接投资(FDI)报告2016

THE fDi REPORT 2016 Global greenfield investment trends

THE fDi REPORT 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Executive summary Against a background of global geopolitical and economic uncertainty, greenfield FDI is continuing its tentative recovery phase. According to the findings of this report, capital investment increased by nearly 9% in 2015, while the number of jobs created via FDI grew by 1% to 1.89 million. However, the number of projects declined 7%. The fDi Report 2016 is our annual report recapping the global greenfield investment trends of the previous year, based on figures from our data service fDi Markets. We focus on greenfield investment as it is the sharp edge of foreign investment: it has the most tangible impact on economic development and is the most solid indicator of a country’s competitiveness. Greenfield investment is less volatile than mergers and acquisitions and other types of foreign investment: hence, M&A flows, which reached a post-crisis peak in 2015, caused headline FDI flows to swell by more than a third in contrast with the more tepid growth of strictly greenfield flows. Dr Henry Loewendahl explains the differences in how FDI figures are calculated and how they can best be interpreted on page 3. There is much to wade through when assessing 2015’s FDI data, but a few highlights stand out. The big FDI story of the past year is India. After a long period of trailing behind China, the south Asian country is now racing past its formidable rival. India was the highest ranked country by capital investment in 2015, with $63bn-worth of FDI projects announced. Meanwhile, China saw a 23% decline in capital investment and a 16% drop in FDI projects. We analyse India’s rise on page 6. Asia-Pacific remained the leading destination region for FDI in 2015, attracting 45% of all capital investment globally in 2015 (see page 4). Although the number of FDI projects into the region decreased by 7%, the total capital investment increased by 29%. While coal, oil and natural gas has reclaimed its top spot as the largest generator of capital investment globally, with $113.5bn of announced FDI recorded in 2015, the once-hot renewable energy sector is on the rise again, with project numbers increasing by 50% and capital investment reaching $76bn. This accounts for more than 10% of all capital investment globally last year. We detail what is driving expansion in this sector in a special section beginning on page 18. For more on all the other top FDI trends of 2015, and a breakdown of regional and country-level performance as well as sector analysis, read on. You can also download a copy of this report, The fDi Report 2016, at https://www.360docs.net/doc/6f7425152.html,/fDiReport. Courtney Fingar is editor-in-chief of fDi Magazine and head of content for fDi Intelligence, the Financial Times’ specialist unit dedicated to foreign direct investment The big FDI story of the past year is India. After a long period of trailing behind China, the south Asian country is now racing past its formidable rival

FDI在我国投资现状

一、FDI在我国投资现状 (一)、我国利用FDI的发展阶段 第一阶段(1979年—1991年):外商直接投资的起步与初步发展阶段,1978年我国实施改革开放政策,开启了我国招商引资的大门。在这一阶段先后经历的两个发展时期,(1)起步时期,1979年7月我国颁布实施《中国人民共和国中外合资经营企业法》,同时首批设立深圳、珠海、厦门和汕头四个经济特区为我国重点对外窗口以吸引外资。虽然我国做了诸多引资的努力实践,但是在刚刚实施改革开放政策的初期,由于我国相关的一系列规章条例还没有出台、具体落实到位,加之国外对我国政策或了解甚少或处于观望状态等,因此前几年我国并没有吸引到多少外资。(2)初期发展阶段,随着我国陆续颁布了一些关于展商引资的政策法规,具体方针对策的进一步到位,其他如上海、天津、大连等14个沿海港口城市的先后开放,从1985年开始无论是合同FDI还是实际FDI每年均有所增长,但涨幅不大。这期间的资金到位率较高,除1991年外均保持在60%左右。但这一阶段我国引资总体水平是有限的。 第二阶段(1992年—1996年):外商直接投资的高速成长阶段,1992年邓小平同志的南巡讲话,是我国经济发展战略的一个重要转折点,无疑是让外国企业吃了颗“定心丸”,开始积极展开对我国的投资,对外开放出现了崭新的局面。同时,亚太地区经济形势看好,也为我国引进外资提供了良好的机会。我国在沿海开放的基础上,继续实现沿江、沿线、沿边的开放策略,在全国范围内实现全方面,多层次的对外开放格局,这一系列的努力实践使这一阶段我国外商直接投资高速增长。 第三阶段(1997年至今):外商直接投资稳步发展调整阶段,经过几十年的改革开放的实践探索,中国已吸引了大量的外资,成为名副其实的对外招商引资大国之一。期间的金融危机、世界经济不景气等虽然给亚洲甚至全球外商直接投资蒙上了一次阴影,但其对我国招商引资的消极影响是有限的,除了1999年、2005年连续两年实际FDI利用量出现较小的负增长外,其余年份我国实际FDI使用量都保持着较高的增长比例。进入21世纪后实际吸引FDI的年增长比例更是高达15%左右,呈现出欣欣向荣之势。 (二)、我国引资的主要来源国及其投资形式 我国引入的FDI主要来源于亚洲地区,特别是来自香港、台湾的资金占绝对优势。这主要是因为亚洲的国家或地区与我国大陆地理位置相邻,文化传统相似,原有经济市场一定程度上的相通等特有的优势所致。相比下,在招商引资初期,对我国市场经济体制发展、对外开放实施持谨慎观望态度的欧美日等发达国家的外商直接投资则比较少。因此,在改革开放初期

外商直接投资(FDI)与我国经济增长关系的协整分析

龙源期刊网 https://www.360docs.net/doc/6f7425152.html, 外商直接投资(FDI)与我国经济增长关系的协整分析 作者:沈源姚绍真陈权宝 来源:《商场现代化》2008年第22期 [摘要] 学术界在外商直接投资对于经济增长的作用这一问题上存在争议。鉴于FD I的净 溢出效应是随时间而动态变化的,本文选取我国1986年~2007年度宏观数据,对GDP与FDI 进行协整检验,采用EG两步法构建误差修正模型,探讨FDI对我国经济增长的影响,并提出建议。 [关键词] FDI GDP 协整分析误差修正模型溢出效应 一、引言 学术界对外商直接投资对东道国经济影响有不同看法,部分认为FDI对GDP有促进作用: Abende-Nabende,J.L.Ford(1998)以我国台湾省为例讨论FDI对经济的潜在推动。也有学者提出不同结论:L.P.King与B.Varadi( 2002)分析了匈牙利59家公司相关数据, 认为短期内FDI促进经济增长,长期有阻碍作用。多数研究认为,发展中国家FDI净溢出效应不显著,甚至为负,而在发达国家有正效应。 2003年中国接受外国直接投资530亿美元,居全球首位。FDI对我国经济的影响,学者最初持肯定态度:Chung Chen, Yimin Zhang(1995)研究表明1978年后FDI对中国经济的推动。后陆续有异议:赵奇伟、张诚(2006)检验京津冀1980~2003年数据发现以1995年为拐点, FDI溢出效应逐渐消失,至与区域经济增长显著负相关。 少有学者对近几年宏观数据进行分析,而FD I的净溢出效应是随时间变化的;也少有学者建立误差修正模型(ECM),该模型有不存在虚假回归的显著优点。本文取1986年~2007年数据,通过协整分析构造ECM,探讨FDI对我国GDP在长短期内的影响,并提出合理建议。 二、实证分析 1.变量和数据的选取 以GDP衡量经济增长,FDI与GDP取自CCER宏观数据库(2007年数据来自国家统计局2007年国家经济运行情况发布会及商务部网站),CPI取自《中国统计年鉴2007》及CCER(取1978=100)。美元兑人民币汇率来自中国人民银行网站,折算出年度汇率。

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