Commodity traders

大宗商品交易者

Know your onions

贵在自知

Commodity speculators do more good than harm

大宗商品投机者的所作所为利大于弊

Nov 11th 2010

THE image of the market-rigging commodity speculator of modern folklore lies somewhere between moustache-twirling pantomime vi llain and James Bond’s evil nemesis (“When I press this button the price of molybdenum will treble, the world will be destroyed and I will be rich, rich, rich!”). Measures are afoot to contain the speculators blamed by buyers, NGOs and politicians for spikes in oil, wheat, corn and other prices and supposedly bring order and harmony to commodity prices. Nicolas Sarkozy, who is taking over the presidency of the G20, is set to use the role to champion measures to bring commodity investors to heel.

（从传统意义上看）当代民间观点中，操纵市场的大宗商品投机者介于两类形象之间：要么是有着拧花儿小胡须的反面角色，要么是007电影中邦德的那些死敌（理应遭受天谴的邪恶对手）（他们通常的对白是：“当我按下这个按钮的时候，钼的价格就会翻三倍；整个世界都会给毁灭，而我将会发达，发达，再发达！”）购买者、非政府组织和政客们将原油、小麦、玉米及其他大宗商品的价格暴涨归咎于投机商；人们正在制定相应的手段来抑制投机商，而这些举措应该可以给大宗商品制定价格时带来一些秩序及和谐。接掌20国集团主席一职的尼古拉?萨科齐正致力于使用职权来捍卫应对举措，并迫使大宗商品投资者就范。

Those naturally inclined to dismiss any French efforts to regulate financial markets should note that Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, is on his side too. And American regulatory reforms include the introduction of mandatory position limits on trading in energy, metals and agricultural commodities early next year.

（如此的安排）那些自然而然倾向于排斥法国努力控制金融市场的人应该意识到萨科奇和德国总理安格拉?默克尔的立场是一致的。同时美国人的法律制度改革中也包括了明年早些时候将在能源、金属和农产品的大宗商品交易中引入强制性持仓限额的规定。

More boring than bad

除了讨人厌，他们没做什么坏事

Institutional investors and hedge-fund bosses do not deserve the attention they are getting. They are far duller folk than their caricatures and the offences they are accused of crumble on closer examination. There is almost no evidence to connect speculators to the commodity-price spikes that they are routinely blamed for creating (see article). And what little distortion speculators may cause is soundly trumped by the service they provide. In particular, they supply liquidity and price

information that makes futures markets more efficient. Speculators plug the gap when the hedging requirements of raw-material producers and buyers do not coincide, offering a counterparty for trades that might otherwise have no takers.

机构投资者和对冲基金老板们本不致如此的引人注目。与被滑稽化的讽刺漫画形象相比，他们不过是一些极其单调乏味的人；同时那些针对他们的指控在进一步考察下也近乎崩溃。尽管人们习惯性的批判投资者制造了大宗商品价格的高涨，但几乎没有证据表明两者之间有任何的关联。即使投资者确实导致了些许曲解，但与他们所提供的满意服务相比，这些已经微不足道了；特别是他们所提供的流动性及市场信息，都让期货市场变得更加高效。当原材料制造者和购买者的套期保值条件无法同时出现时，投资者会填补这一差距，为交易提供贸易对象；若非如此，则套期交易中不会有接受者出现。

The suggestion that speculators deliberately manipulate markets to earn profits through bubbles and busts simply does not hold water. The explanation for the sudden spikes in the prices of many commodities in recent years lies in nothing more sinister than the laws of supply and demand. A ravenous China, underinvestment in mining and agriculture, tight markets and unexpected disruptions to production are usually to blame for rapid price movements. When supply is tight, a small increase in demand can have a disproportionately large effect on price. Even if speculators do sometimes push prices out of kilter the fundamentals soon regain the upper hand.

那些鼓吹投资者故意操纵市场并通过泡沫的产生及破灭而赢利的理论根本无法站住脚。价格突涨的解释并没有那么险恶，不过是市场供需法则罢了。（对于这些年很多大宗商品价格突增的解释全部源于无比凶残的市场供需法则。）过快的价格变动通常被归咎于两个原因：一是胃口极大的中国，另一个是在矿业和农业方面的投资不足及生产的意外中断。当供应紧缩时，需求方面即使仅有小幅增长，那么在价格方面都会产生不成比例的巨大影响。因此就算投机者有时候确实推动价格偏离了良好的有序状态，供需的基本原理也会很快的再次取得上风。

And the amount of cash invested is tiny compared with the size of the total commodities market. It seems unlikely that such a small tail could wag such a large dog, especially given that investors almost exclusively trade futures contracts. They rarely take physical delivery of raw materials and have no effect on the actual production and consumption of metal, grain or oil.

与大宗商品市场的总盘子相比，投机商投入的现金实在是微乎其微；就好像如此小巧的一根尾巴似乎无法带动这样一只大狗的摆动。特别是这些投资者几乎都是以期货合约为交易对象，他们很少对原材料进行实物交割（他们很少在物理上传递原材料），因此对金属、谷物和原油的实际生产和消费没有什么影响。

The worst that can be said about speculators, then, is that they may add a little to the volatility that anyway characterises commodity markets. Yet even that charge is hard to maintain. An OECD report suggests that there is little difference in volatility between exchange-traded agricultural commodities (such as wheat and corn) and non-exchange-traded ones (such as apples and onions). 如果说到投机商能做的罪大恶极的事情，也就是他们可能给本来就以反复无常为特点的大宗商品市场添一点儿乱；而且即便是这样的指控也很难持久。一份经济合作与发展组织出具的报告指出，在波动性（反复无常的变化）方面，交易所进行买卖的大宗商品（比如小麦和玉米）同非交易所买卖的大宗商品（比如苹果和洋葱）间鲜有区别。

Commodity speculators make for tempting scapegoats and populist attempts to limit their activities will play well for both Mr Sarkozy and Mrs Merkel as they struggle to regain favour with voters in France and Germany. They come at little cost as neither country is home to much trading. Any restrictions will only serve to hit the centre of European commodity trading, the London Metal Exchange. It is the politicians, not the investors, who risk becoming the real villains in this affair.

大宗商品投机者被吸引着义无反顾的充当了替罪羊，同时平民主义者试图限制他们的行动；由于萨科奇和莫克尔都在力争在国内获得选民的支持，目前平民主义者的行为给他们二人起到了很好的作用。由于德法两国都不是大宗商品交易大国，他们为此付出的代价非常有限。任何限制措施都仅会用来冲击欧洲大宗产品交易的中心——伦敦金属交易所。在此次事件中真正有可能变成恶人的（承担变成恶人风险的）不是那些投资者，而是这些政客。