EIA STEO Crude Oil 6 Oct 2015
October 2015 Short-Term Energy Outlook
Market Prices and Uncertainty Report
Crude Oil
Prices: Brent crude oil prices drifted lower in September and remained below $50 per barrel (b) for 20 consecutive trading days, the longest period since 2009. The North Sea Brent front month futures price settled at $47.69/b on October 1, a decline of $1.87/b since September 1 (Figure 1). The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) front month futures price settled at $44.74/b on October 1, decreasing by 67 cents/b over the same time.
The number of operational oil rigs in the United States dropped each week in September
and the latest Petroleum Supply Monthly showed lower year-over-year growth in U.S. crude oil production in June and July. While expectations for lower U.S. oil production
provide upward price pressure, continued worries over the pace of global economic
growth may be limiting potential crude oil price increases. China’s official Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for September fell below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, while expectations for economic growth in other non-OECD countries, particularly Brazil and Russia, also remain weak.
This is a regular monthly companion to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
(https://www.360docs.net/doc/777962210.html,/forecasts/steo/)
Contact: James Preciado (james.preciado@https://www.360docs.net/doc/777962210.html,)
Temporary factors may be supporting both WTI and Brent front month futures prices as the discount of near-term prices compared to those for delivery three months out (contango) decreased in September. The 1st-3rd spread for WTI and Brent settled at -$1.08/b and -$1.37/b, respectively, on October 1 (Figure 2). Crude oil inventories declined in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI futures contract, for the fifth week in a row, likely supporting near-term prices. North Sea production also declined in September during seasonal maintenance and may be applying upward pressure on front month prices. However, these factors may be transitory. Fall seasonal maintenance at U.S. refineries typically does not peak until October, implying demand for crude oil may decline in the near future. In the Brent market, scheduled loadings for crude oil tankers out of the North Sea in October are higher compared to September and October 2014 and could lead to stronger contango.
North American inland crude oil prices strengthened against international benchmarks over the past month. The Brent-WTI spread decreased by $1.20/b from September 1 to settle at $2.95/b on October 1, while Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) traded at a premium to Brent from September 4 to September 21 (Figure 3). Despite the price premium, the four week average of crude oil imports into PADD 3 fell by 243,000 b/d from the end of August to the end of September. This was less than the drop in PADD 3 crude oil inputs to refineries during that time, suggesting that some crude oil imports were part of the 10.3 million barrel build in PADD 3 crude oil inventories from the week ending August 28 to the week ending September 25.
Brent crude oil and the S&P 500: The correlation between daily price movements in the Brent front month futures contract and the S&P 500 U.S. equity index moved higher in August and remained elevated in September. The 30-day rolling correlation ending October 1 was 0.54 after peaking at 0.65 on August 24 (Figure 4). Measured by market capitalization, energy companies make up about 8% of the S&P 500 as of September. This explains some of the relationship between the stock index and oil prices. However, the strengthening of the relationship between Brent and the S&P 500 this past summer was closely tied to a resurgence of concerns over global economic growth influencing both markets. Japan and several emerging market economies entered into recessions, turmoil in Chinese financial markets, as well as uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy all affected expectations for global economic growth, which could affect future demand for petroleum products as well as future earnings for U.S. companies.
Brent and the copper-to-gold ratio: Lower expectations and higher uncertainty surrounding global economic growth were also apparent in other commodity markets, particularly metals. Demand for copper is closely associated with economic growth, especially in emerging market economies, while purchasing gold is often viewed as a hedge against general economic and market uncertainty. Taken together, the ratio of these two commodities can indicate market sentiment on global economic growth. The ratio of the front month futures price for copper to the front month futures price for gold declined from May to September (Figure 5). While supply-side developments will remain important factors in crude oil price discovery, the health of the global economy and the pace of petroleum product demand growth may have an even larger effect on oil price movements.
Volatility: Crude oil implied volatility remained elevated in September because of uncertainty on both the supply and demand sides of the market. The front month implied volatility for Brent and WTI futures contracts averaged 46.6% and 49.8%, respectively, in September, 7.2 and 8.9 percentage points, respectively, above August averages (Figure 6).
Market-Derived Probabilities: The January 2016 WTI futures contract averaged $46.09/b for the five trading days ending October 1 and has a 31% probability of exceeding $50/b at expiration. The same contract for the five trading days ending September 1 had a 34% probability of exceeding $50/b (Figure 7). Because Brent prices are higher than WTI prices, the probability of Brent futures contracts expiring above the same dollar thresholds is higher.
Petroleum Products
Gasoline prices: The reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB, the petroleum component of gasoline) front month futures price declined 3 cents per gallon (gal) from September 1 to October 1, settling at $1.37/gal (Figure 8). The RBOB-Brent
crack spread increased slightly by 2 cents/gal over the same period and settled at 23
cents/gal.
Although gasoline consumption plus exports in September were 0.16 million b/d above
the five-year range, and even as a series of unplanned refinery maintenance occurred in PADD 2 during the fall refinery maintenance period, gasoline inventories still built over
the past month. Total U.S. motor gasoline inventories rose 8 million barrels from August to September, compared to an average 1 million barrel rise in the past five years. U.S. net production of finished motor gasoline set a new five-year high in September, and imports of total motor gasoline in September were the highest since September 2010. Gasoline supplies were able to meet robust demand, helping to stabilize gasoline prices.
Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel prices: The front month futures price for the New York Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) contract decreased 6 cents/gal from September 1 to settle at $1.52/gal on October 1 (Figure 9). The ULSD-Brent crack spread decreased slightly by 1 cent/gal over the same period to settle at 38 cents/gal.
Monthly data on U.S. distillate consumption show that consumption declined year-over-year in May and June while showing virtually no change in July, with weakness in manufacturing data possibly affecting distillate demand. During the May to July period, manufacturing indexes released by the Institute for Supply Management for the Chicago region and those released by the Dallas and Kansas City regional Federal Reserve Banks showed weak or contracting manufacturing sectors. Since then, other regional manufacturing indexes, including those released by the New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks, began to show declining activity as well, indicating that weakness in manufacturing may extend into the third quarter of 2015.
In addition, demand for U.S. distillate exports seems to have tapered off slightly in
recent months. Monthly data shows that distillate exports in June and July were within the five-year range for the first time this year. This coincided with growing concerns
about global growth and increasing distillate supply in the international market.
Price declines in the ULSD futures market also extended to the spot market. In
September, the average spread between New York Harbor spot and front month futures prices for ULSD was -3 cents/gal (Figure 10), the largest discount on record. In PADD 1B, distillate stocks rose consistently from February to September, reaching 36.2 million barrels as of September 25, 3 million barrels above the five-year range. Growing inventory levels in PADD 1B are putting downward pressure on ULSD spot prices and may indicate a lack of demand for distillate regionally before the traditional heating season begins.
Volatility: Implied volatility for the RBOB and ULSD front month futures contracts rose along with the implied volatility of crude oil, before declining at the end of September to 43.8% and 34%, respectively, on October 1, 12.6 and 11.7 percentage points, respectively, below September 1 (Figure 11). The average implied volatility for RBOB in September was at the highest level since April 2009.
Market-Derived Probabilities: The January 2016 RBOB futures contract averaged $1.33/gal for the five trading days ending October 1 and has a 44% probability of exceeding $1.35/gal (typically leading to a retail price of $2.00/gal) at expiration. The same contract for the five trading days ending September 1 had a 42% probability of exceeding $1.35/gal (Figure 12).
The January 2016 ULSD futures contract averaged $1.57/gal for the five trading days ending October 1 and has a 14% probability of exceeding $2.50/gal at expiration. The same contract for the five trading days ending September 1 had a 21% probability of exceeding $2.50/gal (Figure 13).
Natural Gas
Prices: The front month Henry Hub futures price declined 27 cents per million British thermal unit (MMBtu) since September 1, settling at $2.43/MMBtu on October 1 and marking the lowest price of the year (Figure 14). Natural gas inventories remain above year-ago levels and continue to build at a faster pace than the five-year average. For the week ending September 25, U.S. natural gas working storage was 3.54 trillion cubic feet
(Tcf), 152 billion cubic feet (Bcf) above the five-year average. Lower prices and higher
inventory levels are likely encouraging additional natural gas consumption in the electricity sector, with Bentek Energy estimating a 15% increase in natural gas used for
power generation in the United States compared to last year.
Volatility: The implied volatility for the front month Henry Hub futures contract rose 10 percentage points since September 1 to settle at 43.7% on October 1 (Figure 15). Part of the reason for the increase was the front month contract rolling to November delivery, which marks the beginning of the winter heating season and the potential for higher price volatility. The historical 30-day volatility declined 4 percentage points to settle at 28.8%.
Market-Derived Probabilities: The January 2016 Henry Hub futures contract averaged $2.87/MMBtu for the five trading days ending October 1 and has a 38% probability of exceeding $3.00/MMBtu at expiration. The same contract for the five trading days ending September 1 had a 47% probability of exceeding $3.00/MMBtu (Figure 16).
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2015年6月大学英语四级真题及答案
未得到监考老师指令前，不得翻阅该试题册! Part 1 Writing (30 minutes) (请于正式开考后半小时内完成该部分，之后将进行听力考试) Directions: For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write an essay based on the picture below. You should start your essay with a brief description of the picture and them comment on this kind of modern life. You should write at least 120 words but no more than 180 words. THIS MODERN LIFE: WORK HOME PLAY SLEEP 请用黑色签字笔在答题卡1指定区域作答作文题，在试题册上的作答无效。
Part II Listening Comprehension (30minutes) Section A Directions: In this section, you will bear 8 short conversations and 2 long conversations. At the end of each conversation, one or more questions will be asked about what was said. Both the conversation and the questions will be spoken only once. After each questions there will be a pause. During the pause, you must read the four choices marked A), B),C) and D), and decide which is the best answer. Then mark the corresponding letter on Answer sheet 1 with a single line through the center. 注意：此部分试题请在答题卡1上作答 1. A) He is pleased to sit on the committee C) He will tell the woman his decision later B) He is willing to offer the woman a hand D) He would like to become a clu b member 2. A) Their planned trip to Vancouver is obviously overpriced B) They should borrow a guide book instead of buying one C ) The guide books in the library have the latest information D) The library can help order guide books about Vancouver 3. A) He regrets having taken the history course B) He finds little interests in history books C) He has trouble finishing his reading assignments D) He has difficulty in writing the weekly book report 4. A) The man had better choose another restaurant B) The new restaurant is a perfect place for dating C) The new restaurant caught her fancy immediately D) The man has good taste in choosing the restaurant 5. A) He has been looking forward to sping C)He will clean the woman?s boots f or spring C) He has been waiting for the winter sale D) He will help the woman put things away 6. A) At a tailor?s C) In a cloth store B) At Bob?s home D) In a theatre 7. A) His guests favors Tibetan drinks C) Mineral water is good for health B) His water is quite extraordinary D) Plain water will serve the purpose
2015年6月英语四级考试真题及答案(精编版)
2015年6月大学英语四级考试真题 Part ⅢReading Comprehension ( 40 minutes) Section A Questions 36 to 45 are based on the following passage. The U.S. Department of Education is making efforts to ensure that all students have equal access to a quality education. Today it is 36 the launch of the Excellent Educators for All Initiative. The initiative will help states and school districts support great educators for the students who need them most. "All children are 37 to a high-quality education regardless of their race, zip code or family income. It is 38 important that we provide teachers and principals the support they need to help students reach their full 39 ," U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan said." Despite the excellent work and deep 40 of our nation's teachers and principals, students in high-poverty, high- minority schools are unfairly treated across our country. We have to do better. Local leaders and educators will 41 their own creative solutions, but we must work together to 42 our focus on how to better recruit, support and 43 effective teachers and principals for all students, especially the kids who need them most." Today's announcement is another important step forward in improving access to a quality education, a 44 of President Obama's year of action .Later today, Secretary Duncan will lead a roundtable discussion with principals and school teachers from across the country about the 45 of working in high-need schools and how to adopt promising practices for supporting great educators in these schools. A. Announcing B. beneficial C. challenges D. commitment E. component F. contests G. critically H. develop I. distributing J. enhance K. entitled L. potential M. properly N. qualified O. retain Section B Directions: In this section, you are going to read a passage with ten statements attached to it. Each statement contains information given in one of the paragraphs. Identify the paragraph from which the information is derived. You may choose a paragraph more than once. Each paragraph is marked with a letter. Answer the questions by marking the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet 2. The Changes Facing Fast Food A）Fast-food firms have to be a thick-skinned bunch. Health experts regularly criticize them severely for selling food that makes people fat. Critics even complain that McDonald's, whose logo symbolizes calorie excess, should not have been allowed to sponsor the World Cup. These are things fast-food firms have learnt to cope with. But not perhaps for much longer. The burger business faces more pressure from regulators at a time when it is already adapting strategies in response to shifts in the global economy. B) Fast food was once thought to be recession-proof. When consumers need to cut spending, the logic goes, cheap meals like Big Macs and Whoppers become even more attractive. Such "trading down” proved true for much of the latest recession, when fast-food companies picked up customers who could no longer afford to eat at casual restaurants. Traffic was boosted in America,
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2015年6月大学英语四级考试真题
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2015年6月大学英语四级考试真题第3套
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2015金融大事件回顾
2015金融大事件回顾
光阴荏苒，面对逝去的2015年，回顾和盘点其间所发生的重大财经事件，能深刻感受到中国经济发展的主线与矛盾。 2015年，中国经济增长动力进入关键的“换挡期”，为此，寻求货币政策宽松以保实体经济顺利转型发展，积极开拓连接世界经济新路径以期在国际经济新格局中实现多赢，加快重大改革举措落地以获取改革红利，同时市场发生的波动带来了对制度的反省、变革与完善……这些，都成为2015年财经大事件的“背景板”。 此次盘点出来的2015年十大财经大事件，是我们对即将过去一年的事件性总结。回顾，是为了更好地前行。 2月5日至10月24日 大事件： 央行共计10次“降准降息” 自今年2月4日央行宣布将于2月5日起下调金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点，首次按下“降准”按钮以来，截至目前，已连续降准降息10次，其中两次降准、两次降息、3次“双降”。 短短11个月，中国人民银行通过多次降准降息，释放了上万亿元流动性。连续降准降息的背后，是国内经济面临的前所未有的转折点。近年来，中国GDP增速从长达十数年连续两位数悄然回落到个位数，从保“8”到保“7”再到探至“6”时代，经济增速的战略“红线”不断下移，代表工业景气程度的PPI指数甚至连续43个月为负值。在此情况下，刺激投资和消费，改变公众预期成为首要任务，企业负债率过高造成的资金链紧张也是央行货币政策需要转向的主要原因。 3月30日 大事件： 刺激楼市银税新政连发 3月30日下午4时58分，央行、住建部、银监会三部委联合下发了《关于个人住房贷款政策有关问题的通知》，宣布将二套房商业贷款首付比例降至四成；公积金贷款首套房首付降至两成，二套房降至三成。紧接着，当天财政部也出台了《关于调整个人住房转让营业税政策的通知》，规定个人购买的普通住房出售时免征营业税的期限，由购房超过5年（含5年）下调为超过2年（含2年）。 政府接连出台的这些稳定市场的文件，犹如一剂强心针，给疲软的楼市带来一线生机，一些城市楼市成交量价随后回升的消息不时传出。但之后陆续公布的全国房地产市场有关数据表明，这个市场总体上仍然是“供大于求、库存高企”。
2017年6月英语四级考试真题及答案
2017年6月英语四级考试真题及答案整理 作文一 题目 Directions：For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write an advertisement on your campus website to sell a computer you used at college. Your advertisement may include its brand, specifications/features, condition and price, and your contact information. You should write at least 120 words but no more than 180 words. 参考范文 Computer for Sale As I am about to graduate and leave the campus, I am going to sell my personal laptop at a low price. It is a Lenovo ThinkPad that I bought in June, 2015. It is not big, but very functional. It has a four-core CPU, an independent display card of 2G, a hard disk of 500G and a screen of 15.6 inches. For the last two years, the laptop has served as my faithful aid and helped me finish most of my assignments and my thesis. There has appeared no fault in the process. I owe so much to it. But as my workplace has already offered me a more advanced working laptop, I find there is no necessity for me to have two. And I know that there must be some of my schoolmates who are more in need of the ThinkPad. Therefore, I determined to sell it. I bought the laptop as the price of 3500 yuan. Now I will sell it at 1500 yuan or less. Anyone interested can contact me via email, and my mailbox is ***@https://www.360docs.net/doc/777962210.html,. 作文二： Directions: For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write an advertisement on your campus website to sell a bicycle you used at college. Your advertisement may include its brand, specifications/features, condition and price, and your contact information. You should write at least 120 words but no more than 180 words. 参考范文 As we travel by bike, we will see beautiful sceneries typical of the region, meet and make friends with different people and get to know the custom of the local people.Having worked hard throughout the weekdays, people will find a weekend trip to the nearby mountains
2015年中国铁路十件大事
2015年中国铁路十件大事 2015年，中国铁路发展迅猛，南北车成功合并，多条重要铁路线路先后开通，高铁走出国门收获多个大单等等，很多重要铁路新闻不断冲击我们的眼球。随着年底春运话题日渐升温，我们不妨回头看看2015年中国铁路发生了哪些大事。 一、南北车合并中车集团正式宣告成立 今年5月20日，中国北车正式退出资本市场，截至5月31日，南北车合并换股实施工作正式完成。据搜狐财经9月28日报道，中国中车集团人士表 示在8月5日签署《合并协议》、正式启动南北车集团公司重组的中国中车集团公司，9月28日正式宣告成立。南北车重组合并在现行法律和政策框架下创造性提出了“对等合并”方式，并采取了先合并股份公司、后合并集团公司的重组步骤。技术操作路径上，上市公司层面由南车股份吸收合并北车股份;集团公司层面则采用北车集团吸收合并南车集团。 南北车合并后的协同效应将逐步发挥，对盈利能力将形成有效拉动。中车的诞生，顺应了经济全球化的大趋势，在面对海外竞争中将更具优势。 二、中国高铁走出国门收获多个大单 据人民网6月19日报道，6月18日，中俄就莫斯科—喀山高铁项目正式签约，系中国高铁走出国门的“第一单”。9月13日，中美双方签署协议， 建设“西部快线高速铁路”。10月16日，中国与印尼达成协议，将共同负责雅加达至万隆高速铁路的建设运营，成为中国高铁全方位整体走出国门的重要成就。
另据媒体报道，11月13日，中国和老挝的铁路项目正式签约，全线将采用中国技术标准、使用中国设备;12月19日，中泰铁路合作项目启动仪式举行，中泰双方将合作建设泰国首条标准轨铁路;12月23日，匈牙利至塞尔维亚铁路塞尔维亚段举行启动仪式，标志着中匈塞铁路合作进入实施阶段。 截止2015年底，与中国签订铁路合作协议的国家已超过30个，不断延伸的海外版图体现了国际社会对中国铁路技术实力和综合优势的认可，也体现了中国高铁标准正加速走向世界。 三、烟大海底隧道方案公布：烟台到大连只需40分钟 据新华网12月1日报道，国务院正式审议2016年重点工程，其中烟台到大连海底隧道施工方案正式出炉。烟台到大连的海底隧道是指烟台蓬莱至旅顺之间的海底隧道，归属铁路总公司管理，整条隧道全长123公里，火车设计时速为250公里，运行速度能达到220公里/小时，届时从烟台到大连最多只需要40分钟。据了解，工程方案将采纳全海底隧道方案，以火车载运汽车通行，南北两端的接驳点、工程规模也已确定。 四、“中国造”动车组首次在欧洲开跑 据人民铁道网11月16日报道，当地时间15日上午，中国出口欧洲的首列动车组在马其顿成功开跑，列车从马其顿首都斯科普里站开动，最终抵达东部城市韦拉斯站。当天，马其顿政府为该列来自中国中车株洲电力机车有限公司的动车组举行了隆重的接车仪式。马其顿国家总理格鲁埃夫斯基给予车辆很高的评价。