Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE?VOL.LXV,NO.4?AUGUST2010

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability

of Returns

LIOR MENZLY and OGUZHAN OZBAS?

ABSTRACT

We present evidence supporting the hypothesis that due to investor specialization

and market segmentation,value-relevant information diffuses gradually in?nancial

https://www.360docs.net/doc/c015448195.html,ing the stock market as our setting,we?nd that(i)stocks that are in eco-

nomically related supplier and customer industries cross-predict each other’s returns,

(ii)the magnitude of return cross-predictability declines with the number of informed

investors in the market as proxied by the level of analyst coverage and institutional

ownership,and(iii)changes in the stock holdings of institutional investors mirror the

model trading behavior of informed investors.

A GROWING BODY OF EMPIRICAL and theoretical research relaxes some of the strin-gent assumptions of the ef?cient markets hypothesis,and posits that gradual diffusion of information among investors explains the observed predictability of returns(Hong and Stein(1999)).To test the gradual diffusion of information hypothesis,the literature has focused mainly on studying the lagged price re-sponse of assets to their own past returns and their interaction with variables thought to affect the speed of information diffusion.This approach has been followed out of necessity because information?ow is a complex and unobserv-able process that is dif?cult to measure directly as separate from an asset’s own past return.

In this paper,we explore a new channel of information?ow that is sepa-rate from an asset’s own past return,namely,delayed price response to shocks that originate in related?rms in supplier and customer industries.By ex-amining the factors affecting such delay,we provide some of the?rst direct evidence on the gradual diffusion of information hypothesis,and on market segmentation as an underlying reason.The central contribution of our paper is thus to show that investor specialization,and the resulting informational segmentation of markets,has signi?cant effects on the formation of prices,and that gradual diffusion of information from economically related industries is pervasive.Our measures of information?ow—stock returns in supplier and customer industries—also allow us to explore untested implications of return ?Menzly is with Nomura Global Alpha,and Ozbas is with University of Southern California Marshall School of Business.We thank an anonymous referee,an anonymous associate editor,Wayne Ferson,Cam Harvey(the editor),Chris Jones,Berk Sensoy and Mark Wester?eld for helpful comments.Financial support from the Marshall General Research Fund is gratefully acknowledged.

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cross-predictability that arise in limited-information models among assets with correlated fundamentals.1

A long line of previous work studies return predictability based on publicly available information,and builds on modeling ingredients that are also nec-essary for there to be return cross-predictability.The main ingredients in this literature are:(i)information about fundamentals is dispersed(Hayek(1945)), (ii)at least some investors can process only a subset of publicly available infor-mation(Hong and Stein(1999))because either they have limited information-processing capabilities(Simon(1955),Jensen and Meckling(1992))or search-ing over all possible forecasting models using publicly available information itself is costly(Hong,Stein,and Yu(2007)),and(iii)there are limits to arbi-trage(De Long et al.(1990),Shleifer and Summers(1990),Shleifer and Vishny (1997)).Under these assumptions,new informative signals are incorporated into prices only partially because at least some investors do not adjust their demand by performing the Grossman-Stiglitz(1980)rational expectations in-ference of recovering informative signals from observed prices.As a result of this failure on the part of some investors,returns exhibit predictability.

To obtain cross-predictability in a limited-information model,two additional assumptions are needed:?rms in different industries or market segments have correlated fundamentals(A1),and,as in Hong,Torous,and Valkanov(2007), investors specialize along these boundaries to some degree(A2),which ren-ders markets informationally segmented.Our analysis of cross-predictability along the supply chain begins by providing evidence on these two important assumptions.We?nd that industry pro?ts along the supply chain are indeed correlated,and that analysts,who are among the most important producers of information,cover only a few stocks and even fewer industries,suggesting that the production of new information is specialized.While most,if not all,ana-lysts undoubtedly have some knowledge of related stocks or industries,all that a gradual diffusion of information model needs is that some producers of infor-mation be specialists and that they not be the source of some new information produced in related markets.

We next present four sets of cross-predictability?ndings that are consistent with the predictions of a gradual diffusion of information model.First,stock-and industry-level returns exhibit strong cross-predictability effects based on lagged returns in supplier and customer industries.By excluding small and illiquid stocks,we further verify that the cross-predictability results are not driven by delayed price response among small stocks(lead-lag effect)or stale prices.

Second,the extent of cross-predictability is negatively related to the level of information in the market.Ranking stocks by the level of analyst coverage or by the level of institutional ownership,stocks in the top quintile exhibit no

1We note that cross-predictability effects are different from lead-lag effects where one market either always leads or always lags another market,for example,large stocks always lead small stocks.With cross-predictability,a market can sometimes lead and sometimes lag another related market depending on where the information originates.

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns1557 cross-predictability whereas stocks in the bottom quintile exhibit two to three times more cross-predictability than the average stock.

Third,the way in which institutional investors trade is consistent with the model trading behavior of informed investors exploiting the cross-market con-tent of informative signals.Speci?cally,institutions increase their ownership in a stock at the same time that they increase their ownership in supplier and customer industries,and decrease their ownership in a stock at the same time that they decrease their ownership in supplier and customer industries.We also?nd similar results using returns in supplier and customer industries, consistent with the joint behavior of returns and informed trade in limited-information models.

Fourth,we show that self-?nancing trading strategies based on cross-predictability effects yield economically and statistically signi?cant premiums. Speci?cally,a trading strategy that consists of buying industries with high returns in supplier industries over the previous month and simultaneously selling industries with low returns in supplier industries over the previous month yields an annual premium of7.3%.A similar trading strategy based on previous-month customer industry returns yields an annual premium of7.0%. Both trading strategies are consistently pro?table over the sample period,and returns from these strategies exhibit little exposure to well-known return fac-tors such as the Fama-French(1993)SMB,HML,and MOM factors.Moreover, we?nd that the return series of long/short equity hedge funds,which are thought to exploit predictability effects,are signi?cantly correlated,both eco-nomically and statistically,with the return series from the trading strategies described above.

The rest of the paper proceeds as follows.Section I provides a discussion of the setting,our empirical design,and related research.Section II explains our data sources and presents our main?ndings on cross-predictability.We explore various trading strategies in Section III,and provide concluding remarks in Section IV.

I.The Setting

A.Cross-predictability in Limited-Information Models

A limited-information model in the spirit of Hong et al.(2007)underlies our tests about the various aspects of cross-predictability.This subsection provides a summary of the model basics and assumptions required to demonstrate how the specialization of investors in their information gathering efforts can lead to informationally segmented markets and consequently cross-predictability in asset returns.

To?x ideas,suppose that there are two markets,three dates,and two types of investors,informed and uninformed,with both types of investors able to invest in both https://www.360docs.net/doc/c015448195.html,rmed investors specialize in one of the markets for which,at some intermediate stage,they receive an informative signal about the eventual cash?ow.Uninformed investors do not receive an informative signal,

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and at least some of them do not process information because either they have limited information-processing capabilities or processing information is costly for them.

In this setting,it is fairly straightforward to show that returns exhibit pre-dictability based on publicly available information.When the informative sig-nal arrives at the intermediate stage,it is incorporated into the price through the demand of informed investors—but only partially because at least some un-informed investors,due to their limited information-processing capabilities,do not perform the Grossman-Stiglitz(1980)rational expectations inference and recover the informative signal from the observed price to adjust their demand. As a result of this failure on the part of some uninformed investors,returns exhibit positive auto-correlation.

With two asset markets,returns exhibit cross-predictability as a consequence of two additional assumptions:(i)the two markets have correlated fundamen-tals,and therefore an informative signal in one market has information content about the eventual payoff in the other market,and(ii)the two markets are in-formationally segmented.Due to the specialization of informed investors,an informative signal originating in one of the markets is received only by those investors who happen to specialize in that market,and not by investors who specialize in the other market.As a result,informative signals with cross-market content are incorporated into prices only partially,and returns exhibit cross-predictability.Note that this spillover effect is different from a lead-lag effect because either market can cross-predict the other when there is a new signal,rather than one market always leading or always lagging another. The limited-information setting outlined above has the following testable predictions.First,cross-predictability is to be expected across assets with cor-related fundamentals,and to be of the same sign as the correlation of funda-mentals.Second,allowing the number of informed investors to vary,the mag-nitude of cross-predictability should be lower where there are more informed investors.Intuitively,when the amount of information-impounding demand is high in a given market,and informative signals are by and large incorporated into prices fully,there is little left to be predicted.Third,allowing informed investors to exploit the cross-market content of their signals,their trades in fundamentally related markets should be correlated because while information acquisition activities may involve specialization,trading need not.2

B.Empirical Design

It is important that we also motivate our empirical design.Why do we test for cross-predictability effects along the supply chain?And,why do we focus on economic boundaries de?ned by industries?

2In a previous version of the paper,we derived these predictions by extending Hong et al.(2007).This analysis and several other complementary analyses are provided in an In-ternet Appendix available online in the“Supplements and Datasets”section at http://www.afajof. org/supplements.asp.

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns1559 Firms close to each other along the supply chain are likely to face correlated cash?ow shocks,a necessary ingredient for there to be cross-predictability in limited-information models.Supplier and customer?rms may have correlated cash?ows because they interact with each other either directly through their trading relationships or indirectly through market prices for their inputs and outputs.Firms along the supply chain may also face relatively similar demand or technological shocks.The Benchmark Input-Output Surveys of the Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA Surveys,hereafter)provide data on the amount of goods and services traded among industries.These data allow us to identify supplier and customer industries.

Economic boundaries de?ned by industries are also likely to represent in-formational boundaries induced by investor specialization.This is because the skills necessary to investigate and evaluate a given?rm are likely to be use-ful in understanding other same-industry?rms.Indeed,important economic agents such as equity analysts and money managers tend to specialize along industry lines.

The empirical design can alternatively focus on economic boundaries de?ned by companies.Indeed,Menzly and Ozbas(2004)and Cohen and Frazzini(2008) use COMPUSTAT’s customer information database to identify economically re-lated stocks.However,for the purposes of the present paper,we have ultimately decided for two reasons that the BEA Surveys represent the best empirical ap-proach to identify the set of economically related stocks for a given stock or in-dustry.First,only the smallest stocks exhibit cross-predictability effects based on lagged COMPUSTAT customer returns.This raises questions as to whether return cross-predictability is an economically important phenomenon worthy of study if it is limited to small stocks.Second,using the customer information database to identify supplier?rms(in effect,by using reported relationships in the reverse direction)and then testing for cross-predictability effects from supplier?rms yield no signi?cant results.This is because the customer?rms reported in COMPUSTAT are typically much larger than the reporting?rm. In comparison,the BEA Surveys enable us to identify,for each?rm,broad portfolios of supplier and customer?rms whose returns contain economically important information regardless of the size of the?rm in question.As a result, cross-predictability effects based on the BEA Surveys are robust even to the exclusion of small stocks.

C.Related Literature

Our?ndings relate to a large literature on return predictability,one strand of which explores lead-lag relations among stocks.In an in?uential paper,Lo and MacKinlay(1990)document that large stocks lead small stocks.Our paper, by showing that cross-predictability effects are robust to the exclusion of small stocks and monthly return observations without a closing price in the previ-ous month,addresses an important concern of this literature that observed lead-lag relations could be an artifact of thin markets and nonsynchronous prices.

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In a recent paper,Hong et al.(2007)document that in the United States several important industries such as commercial real estate,petroleum,metal, retail,?nancial,and services lead the overall stock market as well as vari-ous economic indicators.Moreover,they show that the eight largest non-U.S. markets exhibit similar patterns.A natural interpretation of their?ndings is that information of macroeconomic importance in certain industries diffuses gradually to the rest of the market.In addition to the contributions we discuss below,our?ndings differ from those of Hong et al.(2007)in that we establish pervasive cross-predictability effects throughout the supply chain by focusing on returns in immediate supplier and customer industries.

Another strand of the literature following Lo and MacKinlay(1990)investi-gates the role of informed traders using proxies such as analyst coverage and in-stitutional ownership,as we do.Brennan,Jegadeesh,and Swaminathan(1993) show that many-analyst?rms lead few-analyst?rms,suggesting that many-analyst?rms adjust to common information faster than few-analyst?rms do. Badrinath,Kale,and Noe(1995)show that high-institutional ownership stocks lead low-institutional ownership stocks.Because we use return innovations in a relatively contained set of supplier and customer industries as opposed to return innovations in market-wide portfolios of stocks,which these previous papers use,we are able to establish an important role for informed traders in impounding relatively less common information into stock prices.

In another related paper,Hong,Lim,and Stein(2000)document that stocks with more analyst coverage exhibit less price momentum.This is consistent with the idea that stocks with more analyst coverage adjust more quickly to value-relevant information.However,the source as well as nature of the infor-mation to which stocks adjust in their study remain unclear.In this respect,our ?ndings complement theirs by showing that stocks with more analyst coverage adjust more quickly to value-relevant information originating in supplier and customer industries.

Finally,by relating the trading behavior of institutional investors to returns in supplier and customer industries,we contribute to the literature investigat-ing the joint behavior of stock returns and informed trade in“disagreement models”as articulated by Hong and Stein(2007).Earlier work by Cohen,Gom-pers,and Vuolteenaho(2002)shows that institutional investors pro?t from the momentum effect in prices.We further show that the holdings of institutional investors change in a manner consistent with trading strategies that pro?t from the cross-predictability effect in prices.

II.Empirical Results

A.Data

A.1.CRSP and COMPUSTAT

Our return data come from the Center for Research in Security Prices(CRSP) monthly returns database.The sample period is from July1963to June2005. Consistent with standard practice,we use NYSE,Amex,and NASDAQ stocks,

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns1561 and exclude closed-end funds,real estate investment trusts,American De-positary Receipts,foreign companies,primes,and scores.We obtain?nancial statement and other company information through the Merged COMPUSTAT-CRSP database.

A.2.Benchmark Input-Output Surveys

We use a series of Benchmark Input-Output Surveys of the Bureau of Eco-nomic Analysis to identify supplier and customer industries for a given stock or industry(see Fan and Lang(2000),Matsusaka(1993)).BEA Surveys pro-vide a detailed picture of the interdependent structure of the U.S.economy by assigning gross output to industry accounts and by reporting the amount of inter-industry?ows of goods and services in the Use Table.

BEA Surveys are published roughly once every5years to coincide with the Economic Census conducted by the U.S.Census Bureau.We draw on11differ-ent surveys(2002,1997,1992,1987,1982,1977,1972,1967,1963,1958,and 1947)on a rolling basis to measure supplier and customer relations.We adopt this approach primarily to improve measurement accuracy because each sur-vey provides a historical snapshot and thus may be inadequate for describing the structure of the U.S.economy for our entire sample period.For the?rst part of our analysis testing the underlying economics of cross-predictability,we use data from a given survey until a new snapshot is provided by the following survey,that is,we use data from the1963Survey between1963and1966,the 1967Survey between1967and1971,and so on.For the second part of our analysis investigating various trading strategies based on cross-predictability effects,we delay using any data from a given survey until the end of the year in which the survey is publicly released.The different BEA Surveys mentioned above were released during2007,2002,1997,1994,1991,1984,1979,1974, 1969,1964,and1952,respectively.

For the purposes of our analysis,we merge three separate industry accounts, namely,2301(new nonresidential construction),2302(new residential con-struction),and2303(maintenance and repair construction),in the1997and 2002BEA Surveys into a single account because these three industry accounts stake overlapping claims on the same North American Industry Classi?cation System(NAICS)codes and?rms.In pre-1997BEA Surveys based on Standard Industrial Classi?cation(SIC)codes,we merge industry account pairs1-2(live-stock and agricultural products),5-6(metallic ores mining),9-10(nonmetallic minerals mining),11-12(construction),20-21(lumber and wood products),and 33-34(footwear,leather,and leather products)because the industry accounts within each pair stake overlapping claims on the same SIC codes.In addition, we drop miscellaneous industry accounts related to government,import,and inventory adjustments because they do not appear to correspond to any clear economic activity or industry.

We use BEA SIC and NAICS code dictionaries to assign each stock to an industry based on the stock’s reported SIC or NAICS code in

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COMPUSTAT.3If this information is missing in COMPUSTAT,we use the reported code in CRSP.Based on the industry assignments,we next calculate value-weighted monthly industry returns.We require that there be a market capitalization at the end of June of a given year for a stock to be included in the analysis for the subsequent12months.We impose this requirement primarily to stabilize the composition of industry portfolios.

After calculating industry portfolio returns,we further form two separate portfolios for each industry,one composed of supplier industries and another composed of customer industries.To calculate monthly returns for these port-folios,we use data on the?ow of goods and services to and from the industries in question as portfolio weights.In particular,the share of an industry’s total purchases from other industries is used to calculate supplier industry returns, and the share of the industry’s total sales to other industries is used to calcu-late customer industry returns.For the purpose of testing limited-information models of gradual information diffusion,this portfolio weighting scheme has the desired properties of(i)identifying the set of economically related supplier and customer industries for a given industry,and(ii)re?ecting the relative economic importance of related industries as proxied by the amount of inter-industry trade.

A.3.I/B/E/S and13F Holdings

We use the I/B/E/S database,both its detail and summary history?les,to con-struct measures of analyst coverage and earnings expectations for each stock on CRSP.Because the I/B/E/S?les are historical snapshots,we use historical CUSIP codes to link the two databases.Finally,we use Thomson Financial’s 13F Holdings database to construct measures of institutional ownership for each stock on CRSP,where we again use historical CUSIP codes to link the two databases.

B.Preliminary Evidence

We begin by presenting preliminary evidence on two important assumptions in limited-information models for there to be cross-predictability from supplier and customer industries.These two assumptions are that(i)?rms in a given in-dustry have correlated fundamentals with?rms in their supplier and customer industries,and(ii)informed investors specialize in their information-gathering activities.

To see whether?rms along the supply chain have correlated fundamentals, we construct?rm-and industry-level measures of pro?tability and estimate

3Firms that operate in multiple industries pose a conceptual problem.In the Internet Appendix, we show that our cross-predictability results are fairly similar for single-and multi-segment?rms. Classifying a multi-segment?rm according to its reported code in COMPUSTAT representing the ?rm’s main business appears to constitute a reasonable method to identify the?rm’s main economic exposure for our purposes.

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns

1563panel regressions of the form

ROA i ,t =αi +θmarket ROA market t

+θsupplier ROA supplier i ,t +θcustomer ROA customer i ,t +e i ,t ,(1)

where ROA i ,t is the return on assets of ?rm or industry i in year t .We mea-sure ?rm-level ROA as the ratio of cash ?ow to total assets (COMPUSTAT data item 6),where cash ?ow is the sum of earnings before extraordinary items (item 18)and depreciation and amortization (item 14).We calculate industry-and market-level ROA by aggregating ?rm-level ROA with a portfolio approach using ?rm assets as portfolio weights.We then calculate ROA supplier i ,t and ROA customer i ,t for each industry by weighting the industry-level ROA of sup-plier and customer industries with the ?ow of goods and services to and from the industries in question,similar to our approach for calculating returns in supplier and customer industries.Depending on the speci?cation,αi represents ?rm-or industry-level ?xed effects that control for unmodeled heterogeneity across ?rms and industries.Finally,we use robust standard errors that are adjusted for double clustering (Thompson (2009),Petersen (2009))by ?rm and year for the ?rm-level speci?cation,and by industry and year for the industry-level speci?cation.The remaining source of independence is therefore between different ?rms or industries in different years.

The results in Table I con?rm the validity of our empirical design for test-ing cross-predictability,and show that,indeed,?rms along the supply chain have positively correlated fundamentals.In column 1,where we present ?rm-level evidence,?rm-level ROA is positively correlated with contemporaneous ROA in supplier and customer industries over and above the market-wide ROA as evidenced by statistically signi?cant coef?cients on ROA supplier i ,t (0.471)and ROA customer i ,t (0.465).In column 2,where the unit of analysis is an in-dustry instead of a ?rm,the results con?rm the validity of our supply chain approach at the industry level.Speci?cally,industries along the supply chain have positively correlated fundamentals over and above the market-wide ROA as evidenced by statistically signi?cant coef?cients on ROA supplier i ,t (0.398)and ROA customer i ,t (0.164).We next address the assumption of specialization among informed investors by presenting evidence on the specialization of equity analysts,who arguably constitute one of the most informed groups of market players.Recall that for there to be cross-predictability of returns in limited-information models,informative signals need to be dispersed among informed investors.To shed some light on this issue,in Figure 1we provide histograms of the average number of stocks and industries covered by an analyst in any given month by using the analyst’s entire record in the I/B/E/S detail history ?le.We restrict our analysis to the period from January 1982to June 2005due to data quality concerns related to the pre-1982I/B/E/S data (the number of analyst estimates displays a large jump from 1981to 1982).For the purposes of the ?gure,we consider only earnings per share (EPS)forecasts and assume that an analyst

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Table I

Supply Chain Fundamentals

This table presents stock-and industry-level panel regressions of annual return on assets (ROA)on contemporaneous market-wide ROA and ROA in related supplier and customer industries.The industries are based on the Benchmark Input-Output Surveys of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Assets are measured as COMPUSTAT item 6.Cash ?ow is measured as the sum of earnings before extraordinary items (item 18)and depreciation and amortization (item 14).Market-wide and industry ROA are weighted by ?rm assets.Supplier (customer)ROA is calculated by weighting the industry ROAs of supplier (customer)industries by the inter-industry ?ow of goods and services reported in the Survey.Stock-and industry-level speci?cations include stock and industry ?xed effects in columns 1and 2,respectively.t -statistics are reported in parentheses.Standard errors are heteroskedasticity consistent and adjusted for double clustering by stock and year in column 1,and by industry and year in column 2.???,??,or ?indicates that the coef?cient estimate is different from zero at the 1%,5%,or 10%level,respectively.

Dependent V ariable:ROA

(1)(2)ROA market

0.725???0.172???(5.16)(2.60)ROA supplier

0.471???0.398???(2.68)(4.53)ROA customer

0.465???0.164?(2.98)(1.90)Fixed Effects

Yes Yes Clustered Standard Errors

Yes Yes R 2

0.5920.394N obs 275,2913,002

P e r c e n t

Number of Stocks

P e r c e n t

Number of Industries Figure 1.Average number of stocks and industries covered by equity analysts.

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns1565 remains actively engaged in a stock for a12-month period after making an EPS forecast on that stock.We also truncate the average number of stocks and industries covered by an analyst at their95th percentiles for presentation.

As both graphs in Figure1illustrate,equity analysts appear to be highly specialized in their information gathering efforts.The median(across all ana-lysts)of the average number of stocks covered by an analyst in any given month is6.60;in comparison,the average number of stocks that satisfy our sample requirements and thus could hypothetically be covered by an analyst during the same sample period is about6,036.The corresponding statistic for the number of industries covered is1.91,which indicates that the specialization of equity analysts can be explained in part by their specialization along industry lines.We?nd similar results regarding analyst specialization along the supply chain,our empirical setting.Consistent with the assumption of specialization in information-gathering activities,the median analyst produces information in supplier industries that in total provide only8.64%of the covered?rm’s inputs,as indicated by active coverage of a stock in the?rm’s supplier indus-tries.The corresponding statistic is8.73%for customer industries that buy the covered?rm’s output.Note that this evidence does not suggest that analysts have no knowledge about?rms in related supplier and customer industries; rather,the evidence supports the assumption of limited-information models that information production is specialized to some degree.

C.Stock-and Industry-Level Cross-predictability Effects

We now test whether stock-level returns are cross-predictable based on lagged returns in supplier and customer industries.To do so,we conduct Fama-MacBeth(1973)regressions of the form

r i,t=αt+λsupplier

t r supplier

i,t?1

+λcustomer

t

r customer

i,t?1

+ t Z i,t?1+e i,t,(2)

where r i,t is the return of stock i in month t,r supplier

i,t?1is the return on stock i’s

portfolio of supplier industries in month t?1,r customer

i,t?1is the return on stock

i’s portfolio of customer industries in month t?1,and Z i,t is a vector of lagged control variables known to predict r i,t such as short-term reversal and medium-term continuation at the stock(Jegadeesh and Titman(1993))and industry (Moskowitz and Grinblatt(1999))level.For short-term reversal,we use r i,t?1, the return of stock i in the previous month t?1.We use r i,t?2:t?12,the return of stock i over the11months covering months t?12through t?2,to control for medium-term continuation at the stock level.We divide this variable by11in our regressions to maintain comparability with other variables.For medium-

term continuation at the industry level,we use r industry

i,t?1,the value-weighted

return in month t?1of the industry in which stock i is a member.Further including estimated return betas such as market,HML,and SMB to control for risk as well as?rm characteristics such as book-to-market and size do not affect the results,and so we omit them for brevity.

We report the time-series average of each regression coef?cient(obtained from monthly cross-sectional regressions)along with the time-series t-statistics

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Table II

Cross-predictability Effects in Stock and Industry Returns

This table presents time-series averages of coef?cient estimates from monthly cross-sectional regressions of stock returns in columns1through3and industry returns in column4.Supplier (customer)returns consist of supplier(customer)industry returns weighted by the inter-industry ?ow of goods and services reported in the Benchmark Input-Output Surveys of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.All return variables are in excess of the risk-free rate.t-statistics are reported in parentheses.Standard errors assume independence across monthly regressions.???,??,or?indicates that the coef?cient estimate is different from zero at the1%,5%,or10%level,respectively.

(1)(2)(3)(4) Constant0.005??0.006??0.006??0.006??

(2.01)(2.33)(2.45)(2.35)

r supplier,t?10.114???0.105???0.117???0.113???

(5.03)(4.37)(5.04)(4.88)

r customer,t?10.071???0.058???0.059???0.075???

(4.11)(3.26)(3.46)(4.27)

r stock,t?1?0.062????0.047????0.067???

(14.44)(10.41)(13.84)

r stock,t?2:t?12×1110.072???0.099???0.099???

(4.07)(5.01)(5.37)

r industry,t?10.134???0.117???0.137???0.032???

(15.52)(12.33)(15.29)(2.83)

R20.0280.0510.0340.091

T492492492503 Sample excludes–<20th NYSE No closing price at observations:percentile end of month t?1

in Table II.The time-series averages can be interpreted as premiums that can be replicated with self-?nancing trading strategies whose weighted loading equals one on the speci?c regressor variable and zero on others(Fama(1976)). The results in column1con?rm that lagged returns in supplier and cus-tomer industries cross-predict stock-level returns as evidenced by statistically

signi?cant coef?cients on r supplier

i,t?1(0.114)and r customer

i,t?1

(0.071).Importantly,the

coef?cient estimates are also economically signi?cant—the combined premium on the two portfolios is comparable to known medium-term continuation effects

as represented by the coef?cients on r i,t?2:t?12(0.072)and r industry

i,t?1(0.134).Con-

sistent with short-term reversal,the coef?cient on r i,t?1(?0.062)is negative. In column2,we exclude stocks with market capitalizations below the20th NYSE percentile to address the possibility that thin markets might be driving

our cross-predictability results.The estimated coef?cients on r supplier

i,t?1(0.105)

and r customer

i,t?1(0.058)are smaller,but they remain statistically signi?cant and

the combined premium is still comparable to medium-term continuation ef-

fects as represented by the coef?cients on r i,t?2:t?12(0.099)and r industry

i,t?1(0.117).

The coef?cient on r i,t?1(?0.047)is smaller in magnitude,as one might expect following the exclusion of small stocks with potential thin trading problems. In column3,we exclude monthly return observations without a closing price (but with a bid-ask average instead)in the previous month to address the

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns1567 possibility that nonsynchronous prices might be behind our results,and?nd

that the estimated coef?cients on r supplier

i,t?1(0.117)and r customer

i,t?1

(0.059)remain

signi?cant.

Next,we test whether the stock-level cross-predictability effects also hold at the industry level.There are good reasons to explore this question.One can reasonably argue that industry-level returns are economically more impor-tant than stock-level returns in some sense because they are value-weighted. Moreover,Moskowitz and Grinblatt(1999)show that there is momentum in industry-level returns.They conjecture that momentum may be susceptible to aggregate shocks and that the associated premium may represent compensa-tion for taking on undiversi?able risk.If cross-predictability effects also survive the industry aggregation,then it is quite possible that its premium represents compensation for taking on undiversi?able risk,in which case it could be a permanent feature of stock returns.Furthermore,limited-information models predict economically related assets to exhibit cross-predictability,regardless of whether the unit of analysis is a stock or an industry,as long as the aggregation process does not result in the complete elimination of market segmentation. For these reasons,we see the tests using industry-level returns as being more than a robustness exercise.

Using industry-level returns,we conduct Fama-MacBeth(1973)regressions of the same form as(2),where now r i,t is the return of industry i in month

t,r supplier

i,t?1is the return on industry i’s portfolio of supplier industries in month

t?1,and r customer

i,t?1is the return on industry i’s portfolio of customer industries

in month t?1.The only lagged control variable is r i,t?1,which is the return of industry i in month t?1.As before,including estimated betas on the market, HML and SMB do not affect the results,and so we omit them for brevity.

The results in column4con?rm the main prediction of limited-information models at the industry https://www.360docs.net/doc/c015448195.html,gged returns in economically related sup-plier and customer industries cross-predict industry-level returns as evidenced

by statistically signi?cant coef?cients on r supplier

i,t?1(0.113)and r customer

i,t?1

(0.075).

These coef?cient estimates are similar in magnitude to those in stock-level re-gressions reported in columns1–3.Interestingly,the coef?cient on r i,t?1(0.032) is smaller for industry-level returns than it is for stock-level returns.The de-cline in the predictive power of r i,t?1for value-weighted industry-level returns suggests that there is an important size effect,where large?rms in an industry lead same-industry small?rms,consistent with the recent work of Hou(2007).

D.The Effect of Informed Investors

A clear prediction of limited-information models is that the magnitude of cross-predictability should be lower where there are more informed investors—whose information-impounding demand leaves little to be predicted.We now turn to testing this prediction.

In testing the effect of informed investors on cross-predictability,we work with stock-level returns rather than industry-level returns to preserve the

1568The Journal of Finance R

degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity of information conditions and investor types at the stock level.We employ two different stock-level proxies to test for the effect of informed investors:the amount of analyst coverage and the presence of institutional investors as owners in the stock.Both proxies have been used in prior research to establish an important role for informed investors in incorporating common information into prices(Brennan et al.(1993)and Badrinath et al.(1995)).

To construct our stock-level analyst coverage measure,we make use of ana-lyst forecast data in the I/B/E/S detail history?le and consider only forecasts of earnings per share,which is the most commonly available type of analyst forecast.We obtain similar results using other types of analyst forecasts such as sales or dividends per share with the limitation of a thin sample until the late1990s.We restrict our analysis to post-1982data in I/B/E/S due to data quality concerns.

To proxy for the amount of analyst coverage for a stock,we calculate two different measures that count the number of analysts who actively follow the stock on a monthly basis.The?rst measure assumes that an analyst is active if the analyst has made a forecast for the stock within the last12months.By allowing for such a long grace period,we hope to account for some analysts who appear to release their forecasts once a year.The obvious drawback of this approach is that we might erroneously consider the stale forecast of an inactive analyst.To address this concern,we construct a second measure where we require an analyst to have made a forecast for the stock during a given month to be considered active for that month.

To see whether the cross-predictability effects based on lagged returns in supplier and customer industries are weaker for stocks with higher analyst coverage,we augment our Fama-MacBeth(1973)regressions using

r i,t=αt+

5

j=1

λj t A j

t?1

r related

i,t?1

+e i,t,(3)

where r i,t is the return of stock i in month t,A j

t?1is an indicator variable equal to

one if the level of analyst coverage for stock i in month t?1places the stock in

the j th quintile and zero otherwise,and r related

i,t?1is the return on stock i’s portfolio

of related supplier and customer industries in month t?1.In the Internet Appendix,we further allow for cross-sectional differences in expected returns

across the different quintiles by including the indicator variables A j

t?1directly

in the speci?cation.We also exclude stocks with market capitalization below the20th NYSE percentile.None of these variations affects our conclusions. For brevity,we report results for the speci?cation where we use a composite

variable r composite

i,t?1for r related

i,t?1

,which we calculate by taking the average of r supplier

i,t?1

and r customer

i,t?1.This composite variable has the bene?t of reducing the number

of parameters to be estimated while being model-justi?ed.Indeed,limited-information models require that assets be economically related for there to be cross-predictability,but beyond that they make no distinction between supplier and customer industries.

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns1569

Table III

Analyst Coverage,Institutional Ownership,

and Cross-predictability Effects

This table presents time-series averages of coef?cient estimates from monthly cross-sectional regressions of stock returns on lagged related industry returns interacted with lagged analyst coverage and institutional ownership.r composite represents returns in related industries,and is calculated as the average of r supplier and r customer.Analyst coverage for a stock in a given month is measured as the number of analysts who made an EPS forecast for the stock within the last 12months(column1)or the number of analysts who made an EPS forecast for the stock in that month(column2).Institutional ownership is measured as the percentage of outstanding shares owned by institutions(column3).Stocks are ranked into?ve quintiles based on analyst coverage and institutional ownership.All return variables are in excess of the risk-free rate.t-statistics are reported in parentheses.Standard errors assume independence across monthly regressions.???,??,or?indicates that the coef?cient estimate is different from zero at the1%,5%,or10%level,

respectively.

(1)(2)(3) Constant0.008?0.008?0.008??

(1.95)(1.89)(1.97)

r composite,t?1×Rank t?1(1st Quintile?Lo w)0.293???0.300???0.380???

(4.98)(4.95)(5.89)

r composite,t?1×Rank t?1(2nd Quintile)0.299???0.259???0.317???

(5.12)(4.65)(5.55)

r composite,t?1×Rank t?1(3rd Quintile)0.185???0.201???0.244???

(3.27)(3.71)(4.50)

r composite,t?1×Rank t?1(4th Quintile)0.143??0.157??0.177???

(2.37)(2.61)(3.16)

r composite,t?1×Rank t?1(5th Quintile?High)0.0270.0340.067

(0.43)(0.55)(1.12)

R20.0140.0120.012

T281281303

We report our results on analyst coverage in the?rst two columns of Table III.The results in column1are based on our?rst measure of ana-lyst coverage whereas the results in column2are based on the second.Re-gardless of the measure used,we?nd that stocks with low analyst coverage exhibit more cross-predictability than stocks with high analyst coverage.Im-portantly,the magnitude of the cross-predictability effects declines monotoni-cally across the analyst coverage quintiles.Furthermore,we?nd large spreads across the analyst coverage quintiles:stocks in the lowest quintile of analyst coverage exhibit signi?cant cross-predictability whereas stocks in the highest quintile of analyst coverage exhibit no cross-predictability at conventional lev-els.Overall,the results are supportive of limited-information models to the extent that the number of analysts can be considered a good proxy for the supply of information to the market and hence for the number of informed investors.

In our next set of results in Table III,we test whether the cross-predictability effects based on lagged returns in supplier and customer industries are weaker

1570The Journal of Finance R

for stocks with more institutional owners.For this exercise we use Thomson Financial’s13F Holdings database,which contains the stock-level holdings of institutional money managers collected from mandatory quarterly13F?lings made with the Securities Exchange Commission under the Securities Exchange Act Section3(a)(9)and Section13(f)(5)(A).To proxy for the effect of institutional investors using these data,we sum the holdings of institutional investors in the stock at a given quarter-end report date and then divide by the number of outstanding shares at the time to compute the percentage ownership by insti-tutional investors(we obtain qualitatively similar results using an alternative proxy,namely,the number of different institutional investors in the stock at a given quarter-end report date).We restrict our analysis to holdings data with a report date in1980or later because the database contains very few observations with a report date prior to1980.

In column3,A j

t?1is now an indicator variable equal to one if the institu-

tional ownership in stock i at the end of month t?1based on the then-most recent quarterly holdings data places the stock in the j th quintile and zero otherwise.We?nd that stocks with low institutional ownership exhibit more cross-predictability than stocks with high institutional ownership.Moreover, the magnitude of the cross-predictability effects declines monotonically across the institutional ownership quintiles,and the resulting spread across the in-stitutional ownership quintiles is even larger than that across the analyst coverage quintiles in columns1and2.All in all,we take these results as also supportive of limited-information models to the extent that institutional in-vestors can generally be considered more informed than other investors.In the Internet Appendix,we investigate whether repeated use of the same quarterly holdings data in multiple monthly cross-sectional regressions poses statistical problems;we?nd that robust standard errors that allow for clustering at the year-quarter level do not change our conclusions.

E.Evidence on Institutional Trading

Another untested implication of limited-information models is that when informed investors are allowed to trade in markets other than the one in which they specialize to acquire informative signals,they trade simultaneously in fundamentally related markets to exploit the cross-market content of their signals.

Assuming that institutional investors are more informed than the rest of the investor population,we test this implication by estimating panel regressions of the form

IO i,q=αi+γq+βrelated IO related

i,q

+e i,q,(4) where IO i,q is the change in the percentage ownership of institutional in-

vestors in stock i from quarter q?1to quarter q,and IO related

i,q is the change

in the percentage ownership of institutional investors in the related indus-

tries( IO supplier

i,q , IO customer

i,q

)of stock i from quarter q?1to quarter q.We use

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns1571

Table IV

Change in Institutional Ownership

This table presents panel regressions in which quarterly changes in institutional ownership at the stock level are regressed on contemporaneous changes in institutional ownership in related industries in columns1and2,and on contemporaneous quarterly returns in related industries in columns3and4.Related supplier and customer industries are based on the inter-industry trade data reported in the Benchmark Input-Output Survey of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.All re-turn variables are in excess of the risk-free rate.All speci?cations include stock and year-quarter ?xed effects.t-statistics are reported in parentheses.Standard errors are heteroskedasticity consis-tent and adjusted for clustering at the industry-year level.???,??,or?indicates that the coef?cient estimate is different from zero at the1%,5%,or10%level,respectively.

(1)(2)(3)(4) IO supplier,q0.073???

(2.78)

IO customer,q0.055???

(2.77)

r supplier,q0.009???

(2.80)

r customer,q0.007??

(2.28)

R20.0520.0520.0520.052 N obs500,250500,250500,250500,250

the?ow of goods and services as portfolio weights in constructing IO supplier

i,q

and IO customer

i,q ,as we do in constructing r supplier

i,t?1

and r customer

i,t?1

.We include

stock-level?xed effectsαi to control for potential biases that could arise due

to unobserved heterogeneity across stocks even though we consider changes

and not levels.We further include year-quarter?xed effectsγq to control for

systematic fund in?ows and out?ows that ultimately should affect institutional

holdings.Finally,we compute robust standard errors that allow for the cluster-

ing of error terms at the industry-year level to allay concerns about the possible

persistence of fund?ows across different quarters within a year at the indus-

try level.Note that any systematic persistence of fund?ows across different

quarters within a year is already modeled by the inclusion of year-quarter?xed

effectsγq.

We report the results of this analysis in the?rst two columns of Table IV.

Given our earlier?ndings of positive return cross-predictability,we expect

institutional investors to increase their ownership in a stock at the same time

that they increase their ownership in supplier and customer industries,and

to decrease their ownership in a stock at the same time that they decrease

their ownership in supplier and customer industries.Therefore,we expect βrelated to be positive also.Consistent with this view,we?nd that changes in institutional ownership at the stock level are positively related to changes

in institutional ownership in related industries as evidenced by statistically

signi?cant coef?cients on IO supplier

i,q (0.073)in column1and IO customer

i,q

(0.055)

in column2.

1572The Journal of Finance R

Next we explore the joint behavior of returns and contemporaneous informed trade by replacing IO related i ,q with r related i ,q in (4)and estimating panel regressions of the form

IO i ,q =αi +γq +βrelated r related i ,q

+e i ,q ,(5)where r related i ,q is the return on the portfolio of related industries (r supplier i ,q ,r customer i ,q )of stock i in quarter q .Using returns in related supplier and customer industries as information proxies also addresses the possibility that the results above are spurious and driven by factors other than information.Once again,given our earlier ?ndings of positive return cross-predictability,we expect institutional investors to be increasing their ownership in a stock when returns in related industries are high,and to be decreasing their owner-ship in a stock when returns in related industries are low.The results support this prediction as evidenced by statistically signi?cant coef?cients on r supplier i ,q (0.009)in column 3and r customer i ,q (0.007)in column 4.Overall,we take the results in Table IV to be uniformly supportive of limited-information models.The trading behavior of institutional investors appears to be consistent with the trading behavior of informed investors.The one unan-swered question,however,is the extent to which institutional investors pro?t from the trading behavior that we document,as we lack holdings data at a higher frequency than quarterly.Although there is little that we can do about what is obviously a data issue,we attempt to shed some light on this question in the next section by studying the pro?tability of various trading strategies that institutional investors could potentially use to exploit cross-predictability.

III.Self-?nancing Trading Strategies

In this section,we analyze the pro?tability of self-?nancing trading strategies that are based on the cross-predictability effects documented in the previous section.Because an important objective of the analysis from our perspective is to assess the economic signi?cance of cross-predictability,we focus here exclu-sively on trading strategies that involve the buying and selling of industries as opposed to trading strategies that involve the buying and selling of individual stocks.The use of industries (which are value-weighted portfolios of stocks)should address potential concerns that thin markets could be driving the re-sults or that transactions costs could render the trading strategies unattrac-tive.In trading strategies reported in the Internet Appendix,we exclude stocks with market capitalization below the 20th NYSE percentile in the formation of value-weighted industry portfolios and obtain similar results.

The way we construct our self-?nancing trading strategies using industries is fairly standard.At the beginning of each month,we sort industries into ?ve bins based on returns in supplier and customer industries in the previous month.We allocate industries with previous-month related industry returns in the bottom quintile to the ?rst bin,industries with previous-month related industry returns in the second quintile to the second bin,and so on.After

Market Segmentation and Cross-predictability of Returns1573

Table V

Self-?nancing Trading Strategies

This table reports the mean and standard deviation of monthly excess returns on value-weighted portfolios of industries formed on the basis of related industry returns in the previous month (reported?gures are annualized).Industries are sorted into?ve bins at the beginning of each month according to returns in related industries in the previous month.Self-?nancing trading strategies reported in the last column consist of buying the high(5)portfolio(top quintile)and selling the low(1)portfolio(bottom quintile).

Low(1)(2)(3)(4)High(5)H?L

Panel A:Industries Sorted on r supplier,t?1

Mean return0.0280.0540.0560.0720.1000.073 Standard deviation0.1590.1750.1780.1780.1620.110 Sharpe ratio0.1730.3060.3130.4060.6170.660

Panel B:Industries Sorted on r customer,t?1

Mean return0.0160.0600.0520.0650.0850.070 Standard deviation0.1760.1660.1570.1650.1840.134 Sharpe ratio0.0900.3610.3330.3950.4630.520

Panel C:Industries Sorted on r composite,t?1

Mean return0.0130.0360.0740.0710.1000.087 Standard deviation0.1690.1650.1720.1740.1720.132 Sharpe ratio0.0770.2200.4300.4090.5820.658 sorting industries in this fashion,we form value-weighted portfolios for each of the?ve bins and calculate returns on these portfolios for the ensuing1-month period.Self-?nancing trading strategies consist of buying the high portfolio (industries with previous-month related industry returns in the top quintile) and selling the low portfolio(industries with previous-month related industry returns in the bottom quintile).

Table V reports the mean and standard deviation of monthly excess returns for the?ve portfolios described earlier(reported?gures are annualized).Look-ing at Panel A,in which industries are sorted according to returns in supplier

industries in the previous month(r supplier

i,t?1),the mean excess return over the

next month is10.0%for the high portfolio and2.8%for the low portfolio.A self-?nancing trading strategy that exploits the return difference between the two portfolios yields7.3%annually with a Sharpe ratio of about0.7.In Panel B,we sort industries according to returns in customer industries over the previous

month(r customer

i,t?1).Again,we?nd a visible positive trend in mean excess returns

across the?ve portfolios.A self-?nancing trading strategy that exploits the return difference between the high portfolio and low portfolios yields7.0%.Fi-nally,in Panel C we sort industries on the basis of composite returns in supplier

and customer industries in the previous month(r composite

i,t?1as de?ned earlier).A

self-?nancing trading strategy of buying the high portfolio and selling the low portfolio yields8.7%.

1574The Journal of Finance R

Table VI

Return Factor Exposure

This table presents the return factor exposure of monthly returns from self-?nancing trading strategies formulated on the basis of returns in related industries in the previous month.Monthly trading returns are regressed on the monthly CRSP value-weighted market return,and Fama-French SMB,HML,and MOM factors.t-statistics are reported in parentheses.???,??,or?indicates that the coef?cient estimate is different from zero at the1%,5%,or10%level,respectively. Trading Strategy Based on r supplier,t?1r customer,t?1r composite,t?1

Alpha0.005???0.005???0.006???

(3.42)(2.61)(3.22)

R market?R f0.0170.0510.038

(0.48)(1.08)(0.89) SMB0.016?0.0650.004

(0.35)(1.15)(0.07) HML?0.0130.0540.015

(0.24)(0.82)(0.23) MOM0.102???0.0680.144???

(2.89)(1.59)(3.41)

R20.0190.0120.024

N obs503503503

The results in Table V show that the pro?tability of self-?nancing trading strategies based on cross-predictability effects can be signi?cant.In what fol-lows,we check whether the returns from these trading strategies are exposed to well-known return factors,and whether the return series of long/short eq-uity hedge funds,which are thought to exploit predictability effects,contain any traces of these trading strategies.We also report on a wide range of trading strategies with alternative formation and holding periods.

A.Return Factor Exposure

A potential concern that one might have is that the returns from the self-?nancing trading strategies laid out in Table V are not abnormal because they contain a signi?cant amount of systematic risk.Alternatively,if they are highly exposed to already well-known return factors,we might not be documenting anything new.

To address these concerns,we take the monthly returns from the trading strategies reported in Table V and regress them on the excess market return as well as the Fama-French(1993)SMB,HML,and MOM return factors.We report the estimated betas in Table VI.

Except for statistically signi?cant exposure to the momentum factor MOM (0.102for the supplier strategy in column1and0.144for the composite strat-egy in column3),the monthly trading returns appear to be fairly orthogonal to the market(which is not surprising because of the long-short nature of the trading strategies)as well as the Fama-French(1993)SMB and HML