2014年一季度办公报告(高力国际)

Research & Forecast Report

MARKET OVERVIEW

According to the Shanghai Statistics Bureau, the city’s GDP grew by 7.7% y-o-y in 2013, a pick-up of 0.2 percentage points from 2012. Pudong New District’s GDP increased by 9.7% y-o-y whilst its local tertiary industry output grew by 14.4% y-o-y during the same period, outpacing the city-level figures by 2.0 and 5.6 percentage points, respectively. Correspondingly, demand for Shanghai’s quality office space remained stable in 1Q14, with the overall vacancy rate in the CBD Grade A office market edging down and rent increasing moderately. Pudong continued to outperform Puxi during this quarter in both rental growth and the decrease in vacancy rate. The office investment market remained active in 1Q14, with three en bloc transactions concluded.

SUPPLY

In 1Q14, Shanghai’s CBD Grade A office market received one new completion, China Finance Information Centre, located in the Lujiazui area. However, a majority of its office space was designated for the owner and government related entities, leaving approximately 19,600 sqm of effective supply. As a result, the leasing market’s existing stock increased slightly to approximately 5.06 million sqm. By area, 57% of total stock was in Puxi and 43% was in Pudong.

DEMAND

Demand for quality office space in the CBD remained stable during this quarter, and the overall vacancy rate edged down by 0.7 percentage points q-o-q or 1.9 percentage points y-o-y to 7.2% as of end-1Q14. Nevertheless, leasing transactions for expansions and new set-ups moderated during this quarter, primarily due to a seasonal slowdown and the limited amount of new supply. On a quarterly basis, net absorption decreased by 45%, though increased by 10.3% y-o-y, to 55,276 sqm as of end-1Q14. K ey demand generators continued to be occupiers from finance and professional services sectors. Local firms, particularly domestic banks, funds and investment companies, played a major role in generating demand for expansions and new set-ups in the CBD market.市场概览

据上海统计局，该市生产总值于２０１３年同比增长７．７％，增速较２０１２年同期加快０．２个百分点。同期，浦东新区生产总值同比增长９．７％、第三产业产值同比增长１４．４％，分别高于全市水平２．０个百分点及５．６个百分点。相应地，２０１４年第一季度内，上海优质写字楼物业需求保持稳定，核心商务区甲级写字楼市场整体空置率有所下降，平均租金小幅上升。浦东在租金增长及空置去化方面的表现仍优于浦西。写字楼投资市场保持活跃，季内有三宗整售交易成交。

供应

２０１４年第一季度内，上海核心商务区甲级写字楼市场迎来位于陆家嘴区域中国金融信息中心的完工。然而，由于该项目主要办公面积被预留给业主及政府关联实体，仅有约１９，６００平方米有效供应投入租赁市场。因此，截至季末，租赁市场存量小幅上升至约５０６万平方米，其中５７％位于浦西，４３％位于浦东。

需求

季内，核心商务区优质写字楼需求保持稳定，整体空置率环比下降０．７个百分点，同比下降１．９个百分点，截至季末为７．２％。然而，主要由于季节性放缓及有限的新增供应，扩租及新设办公等租赁成交在季内有所减少。净吸纳量按季环比减少４５％，但较去年同期上升１０．３％，为５５，２７６平方米。市场需求主力仍是来自金融及专业服务行业的租户。以内资银行、基金及投资公司为首的本土企业在扩租及新设办公方面扮演了主要角色。

SHANGHAI | OFFICE 1Q 2014

上海写字楼市场

Figure 2 Shanghai Grade A Office Occupied and Vacant Area by Location

图２上海甲级写字楼分区域入驻面积和空置面积

Figure 1 Shanghai Grade A Office New Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy 图１上海甲级写字楼季度新增供应、净吸纳量和空置率

Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部

By submarket, the vacancy rate in Pudong remained substantially lower than that in Puxi in 1Q14 in the light of different supply pipelines in 2013. Pudong’s vacancy rate continued to edge down, despite the new completion in the Lujiazui area, declining by 0.9 percentage points q-o-q to 2.8% as of end-1Q14, whilst the vacancy rate in Puxi edged down by 0.6 percentage points q-o-q to 10.5%. Differences in tenant profiles also contributed to the divergence in the vacancy rates between the two submarkets. Correspondingly, the net absorption in Pudong’s CBD market was 37,774 sqm in 1Q14, whilst that in Puxi was 17,502 sqm.

Prominent leasing transactions during this quarter included: Hanas New Energy’s new lease of 4,800 sqm at IFC North Tower in Lujiazui; Haiyin Wealth’s new lease of 2,300 sqm at Oriental Financial Plaza in Lujiazui; and Public Credit’s new lease of 1,200 sqm at China Fortune Tower in Pudong’s Zhuyuan Area.

RENT

By the end of 1Q14, the average rent in the CBD market increased by 1.0% q-o-q or 2.0% y-o-y to approximately RMB9.0 psm per day. The divergence in rents between Pudong and Puxi persisted, given differences in supply and tenant profiles, with Pudong’s rent growing more rapidly than Puxi. In Pudong, the average rent grew by 2.0% q-o-q or 6.2% y-o-y to RMB9.2 psm per day, whilst that in Puxi grew by just 0.2% q-o-q, after a decrease in the previous quarter, to RMB8.8 psm per day, or 1.1% lower than that in 1Q13.

INVESTMENT

Shanghai’s office investment market remained active in 1Q14, with both domestic and foreign institutional investors actively sourcing deals. However, given increasing price expectations among vendors in the CBD market, many investors sought opportunities in the city’s decentralised business districts, as well as business parks in established areas such as Zhangjiang and Caohejing.

Three en bloc transactions were concluded during this quarter, including Mary K ay’s purchase of The Point Jing’an from an offshore entity jointly controlled by Van Shung Chong, 按子市场划分，由于２０１３年内新增供应水平的差异，浦东季内平均空置率仍大幅低于浦西。季内，尽管陆家嘴区域有新增供应入市，浦东整体空置率仍继续环比下降０．９个百分点，至２．８％；同时，浦西整体空置率亦微降０．６个百分点，截至季末为１０．５％。租户结构的不同亦是导致两个子市场空置率差异的原因之一。相应地，季内浦东核心商务区净吸纳量为３７，７７４平方米，而浦西市场净吸纳量仅为１７，５０２平方米。

季内的代表性成交包括：哈纳斯新能源在陆家嘴国金中心新租４，８００平方米；海银财富在陆家嘴东方金融广场新租２，３００平方米；众信四海在位于浦东竹园区域的中建大厦新租１，２００平方米。租金

截至季末，核心商务区平均租金环比上涨１．０％、同比上涨２．０％，至人民币９．０元每天每平方米。由于供应特征及租户结构的不同，浦东及浦西市场租金仍呈差异化发展态势，浦东租金增速高于浦西。本季，浦东平均租金环比上涨２．０％、同比上涨６．２％，至人民币９．２元每天每平方米；浦西继上季度租金下跌后，本季租金仅环比上涨０．２％，至人民币８．８元每天每平方米，较去年同期水平仍低１．１％。

投资

季内，上海写字楼投资市场保持活跃，内外资机构投资者均积极寻找交易机会。然而，由于核心区域内卖家日益上升的价格预期，许多投资者转而在该市次中心区域，以及成型区域商务园区物业的投资机会，譬如张江、漕河泾等。

本季有三宗整售交易成交，包括玫琳凯向一个由万顺昌、时富金融及南洋控股共同拥有的离岸实体购买静安门大厦，总价为人民币

６．５３亿元，每平方米单价２８，２７３元。此外，ＳＯＨＯ中国将两个在建

2Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

Figure 4 Shanghai Grade A Office Average Effective Rent by Location

Figure 3 Shanghai Grade A Office Effective Rent and Growth Rate

Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部

CASH Financial Services and Nanyang Holdings, for a total consideration of approximately RMB653 million, or a unit price of approximately RMB28,273 psm. In addition, SOHO China sold two under-construction projects to Financial Street Holdings: SOHO Hailun Plaza in Hongkou District (total consideration of RMB3.055 billion), and SOHO Jing’an Project in Jing’an District (total consideration of RMB2.177 billion).

Decentralised Grade A Office Market SUPPLY

Blocks 2 & 3 at The Hub were the only new supply completed during this quarter in the decentralised market, adding approximately 57,989 sqm in Minhang District’s Greater Hongqiao area. As a result, the total stock of the decentralised Grade A office market increased by approximately 4.3% q-o-q to 1,404,018 sqm.

DEMAND

Demand for office space in decentralised areas remained stable in 1Q14. The average vacancy rate edged up by just 0.1 percentage points q-o-q to 16.7% as of end-1Q14. Net absorption recorded 47,711 sqm in 1Q14, similar to 4Q13. Demand came from both corporations relocating from downtown areas as well as those upgrading from lower-grade buildings.

Notable leasing transactions included: Citibank’s commitment of 12,000 sqm at LJZ Century Finance Plaza; https://www.360docs.net/doc/e914726573.html,’s relocation for 3,000 sqm at Baoland Plaza; and https://www.360docs.net/doc/e914726573.html,’s relocation for 1,372 sqm at Centro.

RENT

The average rent of the decentralised market increased by 2.9% q-o-q in 1Q14 after a decline in the previous quarter, to RMB5.4 psm per day. By submarket, Yangpu recorded the largest rental increase during this quarter, from RMB4.8 to RMB5.5 psm per day. This was followed by Hongkou, Zhabei and Putuo Districts, where average rents increased by 4.0% q-o-q, 1.7% q-o-q and 0.8% q-o-q,

项目售予金融街控股：其中包括位于虹口区的ＳＯＨＯ海伦广场（成交总价人民币３０．５５亿元）；以及位于静安区的ＳＯＨＯ静安项目（成交总价人民币２１．７７亿元）。次中心商务区甲级写字楼市场供应

本季，虹桥天地２、３号楼是次中心商务区内唯一完工项目，为闵行大虹桥区域带来约５７，９８９平方米新增供应。因此，次中心市场总存量环比上升４．３％，截至季末为１，４０４，０１８平方米。需求

本季，次中心区域写字楼市场需求保持平稳。平均空置率环比微升０．１个百分点，截至季末为１６．７％。季内净吸纳量为４７，７１１平方米，与上季度大体相若。需求主要来自核心区域企业的迁出，以及从较低端写字楼升级迁出的租户。

季内的重要成交包括，花旗银行在陆家嘴世纪金融广场承租１，２００平方米；土豆网搬迁至宝地广场，承租３，０００平方米；去哪儿网搬迁至恒汇国际大厦　，承租１，３７２平方米。租金

继上季度下跌后，次中心市场平均租金于季内环比上升２．９％。按子市场划分，杨浦录得本季最大租金增幅，平均租金由４．８元每天每平方米上升至５．５元每天每平方米。虹口、闸北及普陀区租金增幅跟随其后，分别为４．０％、１．７％和０．８％，至人民币５．４元每天每平方米、人民币５．１元每天每平方米及人民币４．９元每天每平方米。浦东花木

For further information, please contact:

Lina Wong MRICS, CCIM Managing Director

East and Southwest China Investment Services | China +86 21 6141 3600

lina.wong@https://www.360docs.net/doc/e914726573.html, Carlby Xie MSc, MRICS Director | Research | China +86 21 6141 3590 carlby.xie@https://www.360docs.net/doc/e914726573.html, Colliers International | Shanghai

16F Hong Kong New World Tower 300 Huai Hai Zhong Road Shanghai, 200021 PRC

TEL +86 21 6141 3688

and 0.8% q-o-q, to RMB5.4, RMB5.1 and RMB4.9 psm per day. Pudong’s Huamu submarket recorded the lowest growth, as its average rent has already reached a relatively high level (RMB6.8 psm per day).

OUTLOOK

In January 2014, the IMF revised its forecasts for China’s economic growth upwards to around 7.5% in 2014 and 2015, on account of recovery in advanced economies and improving world economic activity. Moreover, according to Shanghai Statistics Bureau, 3,633 corporations with a total registered capital of approximately RMB74.6 billion were newly registered within the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free-Trade Zone by the end of 2013. Of these, nearly 94% were domestic firms. Correspondingly, demand for Shanghai’s Grade A office market should remain stable over the short- to medium-term despite a national economic deceleration, with domestic firms, particularly those from sectors such as finance, professional services, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, playing an increasingly important role in the leasing market.

In the remainder of 2014, Shanghai’s CBD office market is expected to witness five new completions with a total leasable area of approximately 266,852 sqm, roughly equivalent to the 2013 level of net absorption. All of these projects are located in Puxi; as such, the divergence in rents and vacancy rates between Pudong and Puxi is expected to persist in 2014. The overall vacancy rate is likely to edge up slightly in the light of the increasing competition from the decentralised areas, where a large amount of new supply is expected. Meanwhile, the average rent is expected to remain stable. Ten projects with a total office GFA of approximately 756,145 are scheduled for completion in the decentralised areas in 2014, accounting for approximately 54% of the existing supply in the decentralised market. Some projects may postpone their completion dates given the increasing competition, easing upward pressure on the vacancy rate to some degree. However, given the volume of new supply in the pipeline, the vacancy rate will increase in the short- to medium-term.

The office investment market is expected to remain stable in the remainder of 2014, with both capital value and yield staying largely flat. Moreover, the decentralised areas, as well as business parks in established areas, are expected to draw increased attention from investors seeking higher returns than Shanghai’s CBD office market currently offers.区域平均租金为人民币６．８元每天每平方米，由于该区域租金已达相对较高水平，其季内租金增幅最小。　

展望

２０１４年１月，国际货币基金组织略微上调其对２０１４及２０１５年中国经济增长预测，至７．５％左右，主要鉴于发达经济体的恢复以及世界经济活动的改善。另外，据上海市统计局，截至２０１３年底，中国（上海）自由贸易试验区内共有３，６３３家新注册企业，总注册资金约人民币７４６亿元。新注册企业中近９４％为内资企业。相应地，虽然面临全国经济增速放缓影响，预计上海甲级写字楼市场需求在中短期内将保持平稳。内资企业，尤其是来自金融、专业服务、医药及消费品行业的客户将在租赁市场展现出日益重要的作用。

２０１４年余下时间内，上海核心商务区预计将迎来五个新项目完工，新增供应总量约为２６６，８５２平方米，与２０１３年净吸纳水平大体相当。这些新供应全部位于浦西，因此，浦东和浦西租金及空置率的差异化表现预计将在２０１４年内持续。由于次中心区域预计完工项目总量庞大，竞争的日益加剧或将使核心区整体空置率小幅上升。同时，市场平均租金将保持平稳走势。

次中心区域尚有１０个写字楼总建筑面积为７５６，１４５平方米的项目规划于年内完工，占次中心市场现有存量的约５４％。面临日益加剧的竞争，一些项目或将推迟其完工日期，从而在一定程度上缓解空置率的上行压力。然而，鉴于未来供应总量，预计次中心市场空置率在中短期内将有所上升。

年内，写字楼投资市场预计将保持稳定，资本值及收益率均将呈大体平稳态势。另外，由于投资者积极寻找高于核心区写字楼市场的收益率，预计次中心区域及已成型商务园区域将吸引更多关注。

rs International.

accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.