美赛E题解法思路.doc

E题解法思路，2018年美赛题

采用气候统计模型

此题容易获奖，只要在网上收集世界各国的GDP，人口，气温，降水，粮食产量等数据，建立统计回归模型，就能解决下面的几个问题。

任务1：开发一个模型来确定一个国家的脆弱性，同时测量气候变化的影响。您的模型应该识别一个状态是脆弱的、脆弱的还是稳定的。它还应查明气候变化如何通过直接手段或间接影响脆弱性，因为它影响其他因素和指标。

解法思路，采用气候脆弱性统计模型

任务2：选择的前10名最脆弱国家的脆弱状态指标确定（https://www.360docs.net/doc/153379934.html,/fsi/data/）和确定了气候变化可能对国家的脆弱性增加。使用你的模型来显示，如果没有这些影响，状态可能会更脆弱。

解法思路，采用最脆弱气候统计模型

任务3：把你的模型运用到另一个不在前10位的状态来衡量它的脆弱性，看看气候变化会以什么方式以及何时促使它变得更脆弱。确定任何明确的指标。你如何定义一个临界点并预测一个国家什么时候能到达它？解法思路，采用脆弱气候统计模型

任务4：用你的模型说明哪些国家驱动的干预措施可以减轻气候变化的风险，防止一个国家成为脆弱的国家。解释人类干预的效果并预测该国干预的总成本。

解法思路，采用干预气候统计模型

任务5：您的模型将在较小的“国家”（如城市）或更大的“国家”（如大洲）上工作吗？如果没有，您将如何修改您的模型？

解法思路，采用局部气候统计模型

2018 ICM

问题E：气候变化如何影响区域不稳定？

气候变化的影响，包括增加的干旱、冰川萎缩、动植物范围的变化以及海平面的上升，已经开始实现，并因地区而异。政府间气候变化专门委员会指出，气候变化的净破坏成本可能是显著的。许多这些影响将改变人类的生活方式，并有可能导致社会和政府结构的削弱和崩溃。因此，不稳定的政府，可能导致脆弱的国家。

脆弱的国家是国家政府不能或不愿意为其人民提供基本必需品的地方。就这个问题而言，“国家”指的是一个主权国家或国家。作为一个脆弱的国家，增加了一个国家人口遭受自然灾害、减少耕地、不可预测的天气和气温升高等气候冲击的脆弱性。不可持续的环保措施，迁移，和资源短缺，这是常见的在发展中国家，可能进一步加剧，国弱治理（施瓦兹和兰达尔，2003；gleditsch特性，并buhaug，2013）。可以说，叙利亚和也门的干旱进一步加剧了已经脆弱的国家。环境压力本身并不一定引发暴力冲突，但有证据表明，当它与薄弱的治理和社会分裂相结合时，它能引发暴力冲突。这种融合可以提高暴力的恶性循环，通常沿潜在的民族和政治分歧（krakowka，Heimel，和加尔加诺2012）。

您的任务如下：

任务3：把你的模型运用到另一个不在前10位的状态来衡量它的脆弱性，看看气候变化会以什么方式以及何时促使它变得更脆弱。确定任何明确的指标。你如何定义一个临界点并预测一个国家什么时候能到达它？任务4：用你的模型说明哪些国家驱动的干预措施可以减轻气候变化的风险，防止一个国家成为脆弱的国家。解释人类干预的效果并预测该国干预的总成本。

任务5：您的模型将在较小的“国家”（如城市）或更大的“国家”（如大洲）上工作吗？如果没有，您将如何修改您的模型？

您提交的内容应包括：

一页表，

你解不超过20页，最多为你总结的21页。

注：参考目录和任何附件，不计入21页的限制，

应该在完成解决方案之后出现。

引用：

2018 ICM

Problem E: How does climate change influence regional instability?

The effects of Climate Change, to include increased droughts, shrinking glaciers, changing animal and plant ranges, and sea level rise, are already being realized and vary from region to region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant. Many of these effects will alter the way humans live, and may have the potential to cause the weakening and breakdown of social and governmental structures. Consequently, destabilized governments could result in fragile states.

A fragile state is one where the state government is not able to, or chooses not to, provide the basic essentials to its people. For the purpose of this problem “state”refers to a sovereign state or country. Being a fragile state increases the vulnerability of a country’s population to the impact of such climate shocks as natural disasters, decreasing arable land, unpredictable weather, and increasing temperatures. Non-sustainable environmental practices, migration, and resource shortages, which are common in developing states, may further aggravate states with weak governance (Schwartz and Randall, 2003; Theisen, Gleditsch, and Buhaug, 2013). Arguably, drought in both Syria and Yemen further exacerbated already fragile states. Environmental stress alone does not necessarily trigger violent conflict, but evidence suggests that it enables violent conflict when it combines with weak governance and social fragmentation. This confluence can enhance a spiral of violence, typically along latent ethnic and political divisions (Krakowka, Heimel, and Galgano 2012).

Your tasks are the following:

Task 1: Develop a model that determines a country’s fragility and simultaneously measures the impact of climate change. Your model should identify when a state is fragile, vulnerable, or stable. It should also identify how climate change increases fragility through direct means or indirectly as it influences other factors and indicators.

Task 2: Select one of the top 10 most fragile states as determined by the Fragile State Index (https://www.360docs.net/doc/153379934.html,/fsi/data/) and determine how climate change may have increased fragility of that country. Use your model to show in what way(s) the state may be less fragile without these effects.

Task 3: Use your model on another state not in the top 10 list to measure its fragility, and see in what way and when climate change may push it to become more fragile. Identify any definitive indicators. How do you define a tipping point and predict when a country may reach it?

Task 4: Use your model to show which state driven interventions could mitigate the risk of climate change and prevent a country from becoming a fragile state. Explain the effect of human intervention and predict the total cost of intervention for this country.

Task 5: Will your model work on smaller “states”(such as cities) or larger “states”(such as continents)? If not, how would you modify your model?

Your submission should consist of:

One-page Summary Sheet,

Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 21 pages with your summary.

Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 21-page limit and

should appear after your completed solution.

References:

Krakowka, A.R., Heimel, N., and Galgano, F. “Modeling Environmenal Security in Sub-Sharan Africa –ProQuest.”The Geographical Bulletin, 2012, 53 (1): 21-38.

Schwartz, P. and Randall, D. “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security”, October 2003.

https://www.360docs.net/doc/153379934.html,/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf

Theisen, O.M., Gleditsch, N.P., and Buhaug, H. “Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?”Climate Change, April 2013, V117 (3), 613-625.

Helpful Links:

Fragile States Index: https://www.360docs.net/doc/153379934.html,/fsi/

The World Bank: https://www.360docs.net/doc/153379934.html,/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/bri

美赛论文要点

摘要：第一段：写论文解决什么问题 1．问题的重述 a. 介绍重点词开头：例1：“Hand move” irrigation, a cheap but labor-intensive system used on small farms, consists of a movable pipe with sprinkler on top that can be attached to a stationary main. 例2:……is a real-life common phenomenon with many complexities. 例3：An (effective plan) is crucial to……… b. 直接指出问题：例 1：We find the optimal number of tollbooths in a highway toll-plaza for a given number of highway lanes: the number of tollbooths that minimizes average delay experienced by cars. 例2：A brand-new university needs to balance the cost of information technology security measures with the potential cost of attacks on its systems. 例3：We determine the number of sprinklers to use by analyzing the energy and motion of water in the pipe and examining the engineering parameters of sprinklers available in the market. 例4: After mathematically analyzing the …… problem, our modeling group would like to pres ent our conclusions, strategies, (and recommendations )to the ……. 例5：Our goal is... that (minimizes the time )………. 2．解决这个问题的伟大意义反面说明。如果没有…… Without implementing defensive measure, the university is exposed to an expected loss of $8.9 million per year. 3．总的解决概述 a．通过什么方法解决什么问题例：We address the problem of optimizing amusement park enjoyment through distributing Quick Passes (QP), reservation slips that ideally allow an individual to spend less time waiting in line. b．实际问题转化为数学模型

美赛论文solution

Traffic Circle Detection Problem analysis Different cities and communities have different traffic circles. In order to make traffic more convenient and efficient, these traffic circles position stop signs or yield signs on every incoming road or position traffic lights there. We want to use mathematical method to determine how to choose the appropriate flow-control method for different traffic circles. Traffic-control method For different traffic conditions, we use different signposts. If the road number of vehicles flowing in the intersection is not too large, some stop signs or yield signs may be more fitted. For some complex traffic conditions, traffic lights may be better. In our model, we ignore other signposts and mainly talked about the time of traffic lights. Traffic circle conditions A circle may be a large one with many lanes or a small one with only one or two lanes. For different number of lanes, the volume varies. Besides, the number of entrances also affects the vehicle flow. At the same time, combined traffic circles should also be considered. Green light period For relatively complex traffic circles, traffic lights are essential. Our model should give the green light period at each entrance. Adjusting the control system with these data, we can get the optimal result. Assumptions Taking all restrictive conditions into consideration, we make several assumptions regarding the cases we deal with. 1.Considering that the yellow light interval is short, and to make our model simple, we ignore it. 2.The passers-by and non-vehicles are stochastic and uncertain, so we ignore them when we establish our model. 3.We assume that all drivers keep the traffic rule. They start up once the light becomes green, that is, we ignore their reaction time. 4.Once the traffic circle is positioned with traffic lights, other objectives such as yield signs and stop signs are not considered. 5.Traffic circles are not suitable for any road conditions, they are mainly applied to branches or secondary truck road in urban area. 6.The entrances are not less than four, so we don’t consider the three entrances cases. 7.Traffic is allowed to go in only one direction (right-of-way)

09年美赛A题优秀论文翻译

A题设计一个交通环岛在许多城市和社区都建立有交通环岛，既有多条行车道的大型环岛（例如巴黎的凯旋门和曼谷的胜利纪念碑路口），又有一至两条行车道的小型环岛。有些环岛在进入口设有“停车”标志或者让行标志，其目的是给已驶入环岛的车辆提供行车优先权；而在一些环岛的进入口的逆向一侧设立的让行标志是为了向即将驶入环岛的车辆提供行车优先权；还有一些环岛会在入口处设立交通灯（红灯会禁止车辆右转）；也可能会有其他的设计方案。这一设计的目的在于利用一个模型来决定如何最优地控制环岛内部，周围以及外部的交通流。该设计的目的在于可利用模型做出最佳的方案选择以及分析影响选择的众多因素。解决方案中需要包括一个不超过两页纸，双倍行距打印的技术摘要，它可以指导交通工程师利用你们模型对任何特殊的环岛进行适当的流量控制。该模型可以总结出在何种情况之下运用哪一种交通控制法为最优。当考虑使用红绿灯的时候，给出一个绿灯的时长的控制方法（根据每日具体时间以及其他因素进行协调）。找一些特殊案例，展示你的模型的实用性。标题：一个环来控制一切:优化交通圈。安德里亚?利维亚伦安德烈娅?利维拉塞尔?梅里克哈维姆德学院顾问:苏珊摘要我们的目的是利用车辆动力学考虑在圆形交叉路口的道路情况。我们主要根据进入圆形道路的速度决定最好的方式来控制车流量。我们假设在一个车道通过圆形道路循环，这样交通输入量能够被调节。（也就是，不会有优先的交通输入量）对于我们的模型，可改变的参数是排队等候进入的速率，进入圆形道路的速率（服务速率），这个圆形道路最大的容量和离开这个道路的速率。我们使用带有队列和交通圈的隔室模型作为隔间。来自外界的车辆首先进行排队等候，然后进入圆环交叉路口，最后离开到外界。我们把服务速率和离开速率作为在圆环交叉路口的车辆数量参考。另外，我们利用计算机来拟态一个可见表示，发生在不同情形下的圆环交叉路口。允许我们检验不同的情况，例如不平等的交通流量由于不同的队列，一些十字路口比其他车辆有一个更高的概率。这个拟态模仿实施栩栩如生，例如如何当前面是空道路时进行加速，而当前面有其他车辆时进行减速。大多数情况下，我们发现：一个高服务效率能够保持交通顺畅的最佳方式，这意味着对于进入交通的效率是最有效的。然而，当交通变得拥堵时，较低的服务率更好的适应了交通，这指示应该使用一个红绿灯。所以，在不同时间段，依靠预测中的交通流量，一个信号灯应该被安装进行循环实现。

美赛论文格式要求

Your Paper's Title Starts Here: Please Center use Helvetica (Arial) 14 论文的题目从这里开始：用Helvetica (Arial)14号 FULL First Author1, a, FULL Second Author2,b and Last Author3,c 第一第二第三作者的全名 1Full address of first author, including country 第一作者的地址全名，包括国家 2Full address of second author, including country 第二作者的地址全名，包括国家 3List all distinct addresses in the same way 第三作者同上 a email, b email, c email 第一第二第三作者的邮箱地址 Keywords:List the keywords covered in your paper. These keywords will also be used by the publisher to produce a keyword index. 关键字：列出你论文中的关键词。这些关键词将会被出版者用作制作一个关键词索引。 For the rest of the paper, please use Times Roman (Times New Roman) 12 论文的其他部分请用Times Roman (Times New Roman) 12号字 Abstract. This template explains and demonstrates how to prepare your camera-ready paper for Trans Tech Publications. The best is to read these instructions and follow the outline of this text. Please make the page settings of your word processor to A4 format (21 x 29,7 cm or 8 x 11 inches); with the margins: bottom 1.5 cm (0.59 in) and top 2.5 cm (0.98 in), right/left margins must be 2 cm (0.78 in). 摘要：这个模板解释和示范供稿技术刊物有限公司时，如何准备你的供相机使用文件。最好读这些指示说明并且跟随着这篇文章的大纲走。 We shall be able to publish your paper in electronic form on our web page , if the paper format and the margins are correct. 如果论文的格式和页面设置是正确的，我们将能够将您的电子版论文登在我们的主页。 Your manuscript will be reduced by approximately 20% by the publisher. Please keep this in mind when designing your figures and tables etc. 当设计你的数字和表格等时，请铭记你的原稿将由出版商进行20%的删减。Introduction All manuscripts must be in English, also the table and figure texts, otherwise we cannot publish your paper. 所有原稿必须是英文，包括表格和数字内容，否则我们不会出版你的论文。

美赛论文模板(超实用)

Titile Summary During cell division, mitotic spindles are assembled by microtubule-based motor proteins1, 2. The bipolar organization of spindles is essential for proper segregation of chromosomes, and requires plus-end-directed homotetrameric motor proteins of the widely conserved kinesin-5 (BimC) family3. Hypotheses for bipolar spindle formation include the 'push?pull mitotic muscle' model, in which kinesin-5 and opposing motor proteins act between overlapping microtubules2, 4, 5. However, the precise roles of kinesin-5 during this process are unknown. Here we show that the vertebrate kinesin-5 Eg5 drives the sliding of microtubules depending on their relative orientation. We found in controlled in vitro assays that Eg5 has the remarkable capability of simultaneously moving at 20 nm s-1 towards the plus-ends of each of the two microtubules it crosslinks. For anti-parallel microtubules, this results in relative sliding at 40 nm s-1, comparable to spindle pole separation rates in vivo6. Furthermore, we found that Eg5 can tether microtubule plus-ends, suggesting an additional microtubule-binding mode for Eg5. Our results demonstrate how members of the kinesin-5 family are likely to function in mitosis, pushing apart interpolar microtubules as well as recruiting microtubules into bundles that are subsequently polarized by relative sliding. We anticipate our assay to be a starting point for more sophisticated in vitro models of mitotic spindles. For example, the individual and combined action of multiple mitotic motors could be tested, including minus-end-directed motors opposing Eg5 motility. Furthermore, Eg5 inhibition is a major target of anti-cancer drug development, and a well-defined and quantitative assay for motor function will be relevant for such developments

美赛论文1

注：LEO 低地球轨道MEO中地球轨道GeO 同步卫星轨道提出一个合理的商业计划，可以使我们抓住商业机会，我们建立四个模型来分析三个替代方案（水射流，激光，卫星）和组合，然后确定是否存在一个经济上有吸引力的机会，从而设计了四种模型分析空间碎片的风险、成本、利润和预测。首先，我们建立了利润模型基于净现值（NPV）模型，并确定三个最佳组合的替代品与定性分析： 1）考虑了三个备选方案的组合时，碎片的量是巨大的； 2）考虑了水射流和激光的结合，认为碎片的大小不太大； 3）把卫星和激光的结合当尺寸的这些碎片足够大。其次，建立风险定性分析模型，对影响因素进行分析在每一种替代的风险，并得出一个结论，风险将逐渐下降直到达到一个稳定的数字。在定量分析技术投入和对设备的影响投资中，我们建立了双重技术的学习曲线模型,找到成本的变化规律与时间的变化。然后，我们开发的差分方程预测模型预测的量在未来的四年内每年发射的飞机。结合结果我们从预测中，我们可以确定最佳的去除选择。最后，分析了模型的灵敏度，讨论了模型的优势和我们的模型的弱点，目前的非技术性的信，指出了未来工作。目录 1，简介 1.1问题的背景 1.2可行方案 1.3一般的假设 1.4我们的思想的轮廓 2，我们的模型 2.1 时间---利润模型 2.1.1 模型的符号 2.1.2 模型建立 2.1.3 结果与分析 2.2 . 差分方程的预测模型 2.2.1 模型建立 2.2.2 结果分析

2.3 双因子技术-学习曲线模型2. 3.1 模型背景知识 2.3.2 模型的符号 2.3.3 模型建立 2.3.4 结果分析 2.4风险定性分析模型 2.4.1 模型背景 2.4.2 模型建立 2.4.3 结果与分析 3．在我们模型的灵敏度分析 3.1 差分方程的预测模型。 3.1.1 稳定性分析 3.1.2 敏感性分析 3.2 双因子技术学习曲线模型3.2.1 稳定性分析 3.2.2 敏感性分析 4 优点和缺点查分方程预测模型优点缺点双因子技术学习曲线模型优点缺点时间---利润模型优点缺点 5..结论 6..未来的工作 7．参考

美赛数学建模比赛论文模板

The Keep-Right-Except-To-Pass Rule Summary As for the first question, it provides a traffic rule of keep right except to pass, requiring us to verify its effectiveness. Firstly, we define one kind of traffic rule different from the rule of the keep right in order to solve the problem clearly; then, we build a Cellular automaton model and a Nasch model by collecting massive data; next, we make full use of the numerical simulation according to several influence factors of traffic flow; At last, by lots of analysis of graph we obtain, we indicate a conclusion as follow: when vehicle density is lower than 0.15, the rule of lane speed control is more effective in terms of the factor of safe in the light traffic; when vehicle density is greater than 0.15, so the rule of keep right except passing is more effective In the heavy traffic. As for the second question, it requires us to testify that whether the conclusion we obtain in the first question is the same apply to the keep left rule. First of all, we build a stochastic multi-lane traffic model; from the view of the vehicle flow stress, we propose that the probability of moving to the right is 0.7and to the left otherwise by making full use of the Bernoulli process from the view of the ping-pong effect, the conclusion is that the choice of the changing lane is random. On the whole, the fundamental reason is the formation of the driving habit, so the conclusion is effective under the rule of keep left. As for the third question, it requires us to demonstrate the effectiveness of the result advised in the first question under the intelligent vehicle control system. Firstly, taking the speed limits into consideration, we build a microscopic traffic simulator model for traffic simulation purposes. Then, we implement a METANET model for prediction state with the use of the MPC traffic controller. Afterwards, we certify that the dynamic speed control measure can improve the traffic flow . Lastly neglecting the safe factor, combining the rule of keep right with the rule of dynamical speed control is the best solution to accelerate the traffic flow overall. Key words：Cellular automaton model Bernoulli process Microscopic traffic simulator model The MPC traffic control

(完整)美赛一等奖经验总结,推荐文档

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