美国战略重心的转移

美国战略重心的转移
美国战略重心的转移

冷战后美国战略重心的转移

摘要

自二战结束以后到冷战结束这大约半个世纪的时间,欧洲地区是美苏两超争霸世界的焦点和中心。美国全球战略的重心和军事部署的重点理所当然的一直放在欧洲地区。冷战结束以后,特别是新世纪以来,随着国际形势与世界地缘政治经济局势的变动,尤其是随着东亚政治、经济、战略地位的急剧提升,亚太地区在美国全球战略中的地位大为提高,其全球战略部署的重心正逐渐向亚太地区转移。但是必须承认,美国的战略重心真正转移到东亚还需时间,现在美国的战略重心转移还处在一个刚开始的过程之中。

关键字:美国战略重心中美关系地缘政治经济

美国作为当今世界最强的大国,其战略利益的重心必定是放在与其自身政治经济关系最为密切的地区。冷战期间美国的核心战略利益偏向于军事和政治,冷战结束以后,经济利益逐渐成为各国的核心战略利益。美国的战略重心也必然随着这种客观形势的变化而发生转移。

冷战期间的世界地缘政治经济格局

第二次世界大战以前,欧洲是世界的经济政治中心,二战结束以后,欧洲的经济军事实力被大大削弱,美国取代欧洲成为世界的经济政治中心,同时,美国通过马歇尔计划大举介入西欧的经济复兴,帮助西欧重建,以增强资本主义阵容的实力。同时在欧洲布置了大量的驻军和军事设施,开始与苏联进行冷战,以美国为首成立了“北约”军事同盟同以苏联为首的“华约”展开对峙。

整个冷战期间,美国最大的竞争对手就是同样作为超级大国的苏联,两者都是军事超级大国,视对方为自己的最大战略威胁。①欧洲成为两个大国角力的主要阵地,两个国家都把最主要的海外军事力量放在了欧洲地区。不论是美国还是苏联都把欧洲视为自己的最重要的战略阵地,而在亚洲、非洲、中美洲这些地区的争夺相对来说是出于局部的战略利益。两国的战略重心理所当然都放在了欧洲,这是由当时客观存在的世界政治经济地缘格局所决定的。

冷战结束以后的世界地缘政治经济格局

一、美国战略重心的现状

冷战结束以后,美国作为唯一的超级大国已经失去了主要的战略竞争对手,但是其战略利益的重心仍然放在欧洲,美国同欧洲的经济政治联系是最密切的,其绝大部分的海外经济利益和军事存在依然放在欧洲。对于美国来说现在最重要的地区依然还是在欧洲。表现如下:

1.经济上,美国同欧洲的联系,尤其是同欧盟的经济联系依然是美国最为重要的经济利益所在。2010年3月2日美国贸易代表办公室公布美欧贸易基本情况称,美欧经济是世界上最大,最复杂的经济关系,欧盟为美国最大的出口市场。

②2009年,美欧双向贸易达到9750亿美元,为双方创造了1400万个就业,其中,美国对欧盟货物和贸易出口4680亿美元,占美出口总额的21%。③欧盟依然是美

①参见[美]约翰·米尔斯海默,《大国政治的悲剧》,唐小松译,上海人民出版社2008年版。

②来源于美国美国贸易代表办公室:https://www.360docs.net/doc/52561514.html,/。

③中华人民共和国商务部https://www.360docs.net/doc/52561514.html,/aarticle/i/jyjl/l/201003/20100306834057.html。

国贸易出口的最主要地区。另外在对外投资方面,根据欧盟统计局公布的初步数据显示,2009年欧盟对外直接投资额约为2633亿欧元,欧盟吸引外资额约为2217亿欧元。其中,欧盟对外直接投资的主要目的地为美国,投资额为690亿欧元,占总投资额的比重为26.2%。欧盟吸引外资的主要来源地为美国,吸引的外资额为968亿欧元,占总额的比重为43.7%。接近于一半的比例。而中国对欧盟投资额约为3亿欧元,所占比重约为0.1%。①相比较一下,美国对中国的直接投资则少很多,从2001年到2009年美国对中国的累计直接投资不到700亿美元,显然与美国和欧盟之间的经济联系紧密度相差甚远。由此我们看出美国与欧盟之间密切的经济贸易联系,美国目前主要的经济利益依然是在欧洲,尤其是其大量的跨国企业主要的投资目标依然是欧洲地区。

2.政治上,美国通欧洲的政治联系一直非常紧密,尤其是冷战期间,虽然冷战结束之后欧盟的独立意识越来越强,但是不可否认,在当今世界的政治格局中,美国同欧洲的政治利益存在很多的共同基础,以美国为首的北约组织至今仍然发挥着作用。西方八国集团也主要是欧美国家,安理会常任理事国也是欧美国家居多。在讨论各种全球性议题中,美欧国家依然在政治中占据着主导的地位,是国际规则和国际法的主要制定者。虽然近年来,8国集团已经改为20国集团,其中发展中国家的数量和话语权有所提高,但是基于强大的经济政治实力,美欧等主要发达国家依然在国际体系格局中发挥着主要作用。尤其是20世界90年代的海湾战争和2003年美国在伊拉克发动的战争中,欧洲的伙伴国家依然是美国最坚定的支持者,这是美国和欧洲共同的政治基础。

3.军事上,根据美国国防部2009年发表的一份有关全球美军部署情况的报告称②,截至2009年6月30日,美国在伊拉克的驻军总数为17.2万人,是美国海外驻军人数最多的地区;其次是驻阿富汗美军,人数为5.9万人。此外,美国在其他海外地区的驻军人数约为31.5万人。在欧洲地区,美国驻军总数约为8万人。其中驻扎在德国的兵力最多,约为5.4万人。在东亚和太平洋地区,美国驻军总数约为7.4万人,兵力主要驻扎在日本和韩国,人数分别为3.3万和2.9万。近东、北非及南亚地区除伊拉克和阿富汗两国外,共有驻军约5600

①数据来源于中国商务部网站。

②来源于新华网https://www.360docs.net/doc/52561514.html,/a/20091202/002024.htm。

人。撒哈拉以南非洲地区、中亚地区以及南美洲地区也有少量美国驻军,人数约为3700人。其余约15.2万人为未分配部队。这充分说明美国的海外军事重心现在还是中东地区和欧洲地区,而且美国在欧洲的军事存在依然非常强大,北约仍然是当今世界上最大的军事同盟组织。

4、文化上,美国和欧洲所坚持的政治文化价值观相同,这是双方关系发展的一个文化基础,相对于东亚地区复杂的文化价值观体系,美国同欧洲地区国家在处理关系中更为自如,双方的关系也自然比较密切。

二、美国战略重心的发展趋势

当前美国的战略利益的重心依然还在欧洲,但是美国的战略重心也会随着世界地缘政治经济格局的变化而变化。我们也不应该忽视这一现象就是美国近年来正逐渐将战略重点目标转向亚太地区,尤其是08年美国金融危机对于整个西方世界带来的巨大冲击,使美国看到了东亚地区对于美国国内发展所具有的巨大经济利益。奥巴马政府上台之后,明显加大了同亚太地区国家交往的密度和强度,同时积极介入东亚地区的区域化建设,深化了在东亚地区同日本韩国的同盟关系。尤其是自去年朝鲜半岛危机以来美国在东亚地区的各种政治交涉以及军事演习行动,显示出美国意在提高自身在东亚的影响力和威慑力。逐渐把战略目光转向东亚的企图。具体表现为:

1、经济上,中国、日本、东盟、韩国和澳大利亚都已成为美国重要的经贸伙伴。双方贸易关系发展尤为迅猛。现在,美国同亚太国家的贸易额远远超过美国同欧盟25国的贸易额。以2006年为例,当年美国同欧盟25国的贸易总量为5445亿美元.其中美国出口2140亿美元;美国同亚太地区国家的贸易总量为8755亿美元,其中美国出口为2570亿美元。美国对亚太国家的贸易量和出口额比其同欧盟国家的贸易量和出口额都要多得多。中国等亚太国家向美国出口的大量价廉物美商品每年都要为美国消费者节省上千亿美元的开支,为美国减低通膨压力、维护市场稳定起着关键作用。亚太国家还是美国债券市场的主要投资者,仅中、日两国购买的美国债券(包括美国国债)就接近2万亿美元。这对美国弥补巨额财政赤字,保持预算平衡和金融市场的稳定贡献很大。①尤其是2008年发生的经济危机使得西方经济陷入衰退,正是通过东亚地区国家的率先复苏带动了全球经济的逐

①尹承德.《美国亚太战略新态势》.国际问题研究.2008年第一期。

渐恢复。美国在东亚地区的经济利益越来越大是客观的事实。

2、政治上,美国同亚太地区国家的政治联系越来越密切,美日韩同盟伙伴关系深化,近年来明显加大了同中国的接触力度,频繁与中国经行政治交往。积极发展同中国周边国家的外交关系,这不得不引起我们的注意。尤其是奥巴马上台以来,频繁到亚太地区国家进行国事访问,其频率明显高过欧洲地区,这说明了现在美国对于亚太地区的重视程度。

3、军事上,美国军事战略重心东移亚太在今年来越来越明显,美国调整了在亚太的前沿军事部署。大力扩展在关岛的军事基地,增加部署战略轰炸机和巡航导弹,提升海空军的指挥控制与信息作战能力等。以亚太地区各类问题为背景,以中俄为主要假想敌,频繁进行作战理论研究和军事演习,提高美国干预亚太地区危机的机动作战能力。强化了美国与亚太地区的军事同盟关系,以美日韩军事同盟为核心,构筑以美国为主导、双边与多边结合的集体安全体系,尤其是自去年朝鲜半岛危机之后美国强化了美日韩三国军事同盟,派航母在太平洋进行了多次大规模军事演习,甚至不顾中国的反对在黄海地区进行军事演习,朝鲜局势的紧张给美国增强该地区的军事存在提供了机会。

三、结论

随着亚太地区经济政治的进一步发展,美国的战略重点已经逐步开始转向亚太地区尤其是东亚地区已经是不可避免的趋势,这从根本上说是由于亚太地区客观的地缘政治经济局势变化所引起的结果,美国在这一地区有着比以前更大的政治经济和军事利益,尤其是伊拉克战争结束以后,美国在全球的利益越来越集中到东亚地区,所以美国会将目标更多的瞄向亚太地区,这是随着世界地缘政治经济局势的变化而变化的。同时,我们必须更加警惕以后的中美关系发展,随着中国整体实力的跃升,美国必然会感觉到中国崛起的压力。美国近年来加大了在东亚的军事力量存在,并加大了同中国的接触力度。美国战略重心东移的一个重要原因就是基于对中国的战略防范,确保中国按照美国设想的发展道路前进,而不希望出现美国所不想看到的局面,即挑战美国的霸权地位。今后的中美关系将会更加复杂和多变,利益的冲突可能会对中美关系带来更多的波动,中国必须更加明确的应对美国政治经济战略重心的东移。

参考文献:

(1)[美]约翰·米尔斯海默,《大国政治的悲剧》,唐小松译[M].上海人民出版社2008年版。(2)尹承德.美国亚太战略新态势[J].国际问题研究,2008,(01)。

(3)朱听昌、马荣升. 从两洋战略看美国全球战略重点的调整[J]. 国际观察, 2003 (02) . (4)袁胜育.解析美国战略重心调整[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2001, (04) .

1978_2008年中国经济重心迁移的特征与影响因素_叶明确

收稿时间:2011-12-24;修回时间:2012-03-15 作者简介:叶明确(1974—),女,安徽滁州人,副教授,博士。主要研究方向为空间经济政策。E-mail :ymq@https://www.360docs.net/doc/52561514.html, 。 第32卷第4期经济地理Vol.32,No.42012年4月ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY Apr.,2012 在经济研究中,经济重心指的是在区域经济空间中,各个方向上的经济力量能够保持均衡的一点。观察经济重心的迁移可帮助了解经济变量在一个国家或经济区域中的发展方向和平衡问题,也可评价空间发展政策的效果[1]。经济重心法被广泛应用于宏观经济和区域经济研究中,例如对于中国经济重心和产业重心的演变路径的研究[1-3],对长三角地区人口和经济的空间分布研究[4-5],对某地区经济 和产业发展的不平衡性研究[6-7],其他研究还包括对 耕地变化[8]以及能源消费[9]、污染[10]、人才分布[11]、旅游[12]等各类研究中。 经济重心类似国民生产总值、物价指数,可作为宏观分析的经济指标来使用[1]。然而,在发现经济重心沿着某一方向转移后,由于它类似一个综合指数,是各个子部分共同作用的结果,我们很难判断其变化的背后原因和推动力。现有研究的一般做法 1978—2008年中国经济重心迁移的特征与影响因素 叶明确 (上海大学经济学院,中国上海 200444) 摘要:1978—2008年,中国的经济重心以1991年和2003年为界,先后经历了向西南、东南和东北方向移动的三个 阶段。为分析重心迁移的主导因素,首先指出了一般的贡献度分解方法在重心法研究中的不适用性及其原因,提出了一种基于夏普里值的、适用于重心法的分解方法。基于此方法,给出了在中国经济重心移动过程中的“引擎”和“逆引擎”省市和地区,并发现:第一阶段重心西移的原因既非西部投资的延迟效应,也非广州发展的副产品,而是由于东北经济发展过缓引起的。第二阶段重心东移的主要原因并未长三角和珠三角的较量的结果,而是西部经济发展速度过缓为主导,辅之以东部特别是长三角地区的快速发展所致。第三阶段重心北移的主要原因也并非“振兴东北老工业基地”战略的效果,而是完全是由西部发展过缓引起的。最后对区域发展政策做出评价,并指出优先发展西部经济是保证中国经济高速均衡发展的关键因素。关键词:经济重心;重心法;贡献度;夏普里值;空间均衡发展中图分类号:F127文献标识码:A 文章编号:1000-8462(2012)04-0012-07 Characteristics and Influence Factors Analysis of Gravity Movement for China’s Economy from 1978to 2008 YE Ming -que (School of Economics ,Shanghai University ,Shanghai 200444,China ) Abstract:During the period from 1978to 2008,with 1991and 2003as cut off points,China ’s economic gravity centre moved south-west,south-east and north-east,respectively in sequence.Since general contribution decomposition approaches are not suitable in gravity centre method analysis,this paper proposes a new decomposition approach based on Shapley Value.The “Engine ”and “Inverse Engine ”provinces are defined based on this method.We find that during the first period,the reason for westward movement is neither lag effect of investment nor a side-effect of Guangdong ’s development;it is actually driven mainly by the Northeast region ’s slow development.During the second period,the main driver for eastward movement is not a result of competition between Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta ,instead it ’s the consequence of the western region ’s slow development,augmented by the eastern region ’s,especially the Yangtze River Delta ’s rapid development.The only reason for northward movement in third period is the slow development of the western region rather than the strategy effect of “revitalizing the northeast old industrial base ”.Finally,evaluation of regional development policies best suggest that the western region is a key priority to ensure China ’s rapid economic development can be balanced.Key words:economic gravity centre ;gravity centre method ;contribution rate ;Shapley value ;spatial balanced development

美国文学重点的名词解释

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