二次指数平滑预测法(已编辑好公式)

GDP客运量客运周转

量货运量

货物周转

量

参数a：0.8at bt

（亿元）（万人）st1st2st1-st22st1-st2a/（1-a）(st1-st2) 200189.94630.79630.79630.790630.790

200296.66702.01687.766676.370811.3952699.161245.5808

2003103.05845.05813.5932786.148727.44448841.03768109.77792 2004111.62778785.1186785.3247-0.20602784.912624-0.824064 2005115.79746753.8237760.1239-6.30019747.5235424-25.2007424 2006128.062441.42103.8851835.133268.75222372.6369121075.008666 2007145.8825312445.5772323.488122.08892567.665823488.3554959 2008164.3725782551.5152505.9145.605462597.120853182.4218518 2009167.7326572635.9032609.90425.998632661.901708103.9945209 2010200.2227652739.1812713.32525.855232765.035849103.4209343 2011223.2325702603.8362625.734-21.89792581.938271-87.59140712 2012238.2625252540.7672557.761-16.99342523.773875-67.97340022 2013257.7826922661.7532640.95520.798572682.55201983.1942962 2014267.1827782754.7512731.99222.759162777.50985391.03665449 2015287.9227612759.752754.198 5.5517222765.3018622.20688995 2016

项目年度

二次平滑法预测值

744.742

950.8156

784.08856

722.3228

3447.645578

3056.021319

2779.542705

2765.896229

2868.456783

2494.346864

2455.800474

2765.746315

2868.546507

2787.50875