工程管理专业 毕业论文文献翻译 中英文对照

工程管理专业毕业论文文献翻译中英文对照河北建筑工程学院

毕业设计(论文)外文资料翻译

系别: 管理系

专业: 工程管理

班级: 管072

姓名:

学号: 2007310223

外文出处: Project Manager’s Spotlight on Risk

Management

Kim Heldman 附件:1、外文原文;2、外文资料翻译译文。指导教师评语: 签字:

年月日

Defining Risk Response Plans

You’ve identified your risks, analyzed them for their impacts on

the project, assigned probabilities and impact values, determined an expected value, and ranked them in order. You’ve also determined which of the risks, given all those conditions, require response plans. This chapter discusses what risk response plans are, the techniques for developing response plans, and how to document and write plans for those risks that have a high probability and high impact on the project.

Let’s get to it.

Risk Response Planning

Risk Response Planning is the process of deciding what actions to take to educe threats (especially to schedule and cost) while taking advantage of he opportunities other risks present.

Typically, you’ll want to develop risk response plans for risks

with the potential for high probability and high impact. It isn’t efficient to spent time writing response plans for risks you’ve determined aren’t likely to occur and won’t impact the project significantly if they do. For example, if I’m building a tourist center in the Mojave Desert, I wouldn’t spend time on a risk response plan for the possibility of rain(It does rain

in the Mojave an average of 2.5 inches per year), so the possibility exists, but it’s highly unlikely it would impact my project. I’ll deal with these

types of risks in the “Contingency Planning” section a little

later in this chapter.

Remember that risk management planning, including the

development of risk response plans, isn’t a one-time exercise. As you

progress through the project and learn more about potential risk events, you’ll reevaluate their impacts, which may require a change in strategy to deal with the risk and a new or revised response plan. And even though I’ve focused primarily on risks that prevent you from meeting the goals of the project, don’t forget that risks can produce opportunities.

Uncertain Certainty

One thing is certain: your project does have risks, and if you

choose to ignore them, your project will have an uncertain outcome. All project risk is closely linked with the availability of information and communication, or the lack thereof, as I’ve talked about previously. The

more information you have, the more likely you’re able to predict

the risk event and its impacts.

And the better you’re able to predict risk imp acts, the better

you’ll be at creating risk response plans.

When thinking about risk response plans, keep in mind that risk out-comes generally fall into three categories:

* Known risks with predictable outcomes

* Known risks with uncertain outcomes

* Unknown risks with unpredictable outcomes

These are fairly straightforward. A known risk is something you know has the potential to happen. The term predictable outcomes implies you know with reasonable certainty what the impacts and outcomes of the risk events would be if they occurred. Unpredictable outcomes are impacts and consequences of the risk event that aren’t fully identified or known. Let’s use a simple example to explain each of these outcomes. You’ve decided to paint your garage door this week end. One risk that could keep you from completing this project is the weather. No problem—you cruise the Internet and check out the local forecast, which predicts

clear and sunny skies, with little possibility of showers. You have the means to learn about the weather (the Internet site) and to determine the certainty of the impact (a 10 percent chance of showers). That means you know, with predictable certainty, that this risk has a low chance of occurring. Known risks with uncertain outcomes are more difficult because, well, their outcomes aren’t certain. However, the amount of uncertainty could vary. You may, for example, know it’s going to rain but not know when it’ll start or how long it’ll continue. When you’re facing project risks with uncertain outcomes, I recommend learning everything you can about the risk and its possible impacts. (Since the impacts are unpredictable, this isn’t always possible.) You should interview

stakeholders, research past projects, and try to move as far from

the

uncertainty end of the spectrum as you can. The more you know, the better.

The last bullet listed previously, unknown risks with unpredictable out- comes, says you don’t know about the risk and you don’t know about its impacts. It’s an unknown risk with an unknown o utcome. Suppose you’re happily painting away and are three-quarters finished when a flock of geese happens to fly right over your house. You guessed it. An unknown risk with an unpredictable outcome has occurred.

Many project decisions are made without benefit of knowing all the facts, and risk analysis is no exception. Risk, after all, is primarily

about uncertainty. Analyzing the risks tells you about the possible outcomes for the risk, and the response plan addresses how to deal with those outcomes.

The greater your certainty of the outcome, the easier it will be to develop response plans. For example, if you know rain is a certainty on the day you’re planning on painting the garage, you can devise response plans that are fairly precise. You could postpone the painting to another day and sweep the garage floor instead.

Or, perhaps you know with reasonable certainty that the rain is coming but won’t start until early afternoon. In that case, you could quickly paint the door in the morning while the sun is still out (or the clouds are rolling in) and then flip open the door so it’s protected by the

garage ceiling until it dries.

Purpose of Planning for Risks

The purpose for risk planning is to determine the most appropriate response to reduce, control, or take advantage of the risk event. Along with determining the response, you’ll want to make certain you’re choosing the right strategy for the risk event. After determining the strategy to use, you’ll develop an action plan to put this strategy

into play should the risk event occur.

The second purpose for risk planning is to determine a risk owner. I talked about risk owners and their responsibility in Chapter 2, “Identifying and Documenting Risks.” Once the plan is developed, the

risk owner is the one held accountable for watching for risk triggers, tracking the risk, recommending the implementation of the response plan if the situation war-rants it, and then monitoring the effectiveness of the response plan once it’s implemented.

Risk response planning also has an added benefit. When risk events

do occur, you’ll be able to remain calm, cool, and levelheaded about what

to do.

Rather than reacting like our friend Ned, you’ll calmly reach for the

response plan document and know what to do. When you’re i n panic mode, the object is to resolve the problem as quickly as possible. That means you usually deal with things the quickest and easiest way you can think of just to get everything under control. But getting immediate control doesn’t necessarily solve the problem in the long run. Response planning allows you determine the best method for dealing with a risk, which gives you a higher probability of meeting your project goals. Risk Response Techniques

You have several strategies for dealing with risk that help reduce

or control the impacts of risk events. The most common strategies are as follows:

* Avoidance

* Transference * Mitigation

* Acceptance

* Contingency planning

* Independent verification and validation

Each of these techniques has its strengths and weaknesses. Before determining which strategy to use, make certain you understand the type of risk you’re dealing with, as well as the severity of the risk. You’ll want to choose the strategy that will be the most effective and cost efficient for dealing with the risk event. If it costs you more to respond to the risk than the consequences of the risk itself, you may want to consider a different strategy.

Avoidance

You may have already guessed that the risk avoidance technique is about avoiding risk. True. It encompasses more than that, however. Risk avoidance techniques include the following:

* Avoiding the risk altogether

* Eliminating the cause of the risk event

* Changing the project plan to protect the objectives from the risk event

Le t’s look at some examples for each technique. Avoiding the risk altogether implies that you know the outcomes of the risk with relative certainty and can take steps to keep the risk event from occurring. Suppose Ned and the photo-shoot team are headed to the airport to catch their flight to Paris. In keeping with Ned’s usual manner, he has held everyone up to the last second. If they leave any later, they won’t have

time to check the million pieces of luggage Ned is bringing and get through security in time to catch the flight. Sherry, the quick-thinking project manager, decides to do a traffic check before leaving. She logs onto the Internet and finds there’s been a major accident on the highway

they were planning on taking to the airport. To avoid delays and

keep them from missing the flight, Sherry decides on an alternate route that bypasses the accident and avoids the risk event.

Eliminating the cause of the risk is a technique that works

something like this. Sherry knows that the team’s luggage looks like every other piece of luggage they’re likely to see on an airport conveyor belt. The

team is carrying some sensitive company information and a few pieces of specialized equipment. Sherry can eliminate the cause of this risk by carrying the company material and specialized equipment on board in

their carry ones.

One of the objectives of the photo assignment is to shoot pictures

of Parisians doing everyday tasks—strolling through the park, eating at side-walk cafés, shopping, and so on—outside in the open air. A

rainstorm pops up on the day this shoot is supposed to occur. Sherry changes the project plan by switching an indoor shooting day with the outdoor shooting day to protect the project objectives from the risk event.

Avoidance is a great strategy when you can use it. The trouble is it isn’t appropriate for every risk, so let’s look at some more techniques.

定义风险应对计划

你已经定义风险,分析了他们对项目的影响、分配的可能性和有影响的标准,决定期望中的标准,并且把他们按目的排列整齐。在考虑到所有条件的情况下，你决定哪个风险,需要应对计划。这一章讨论对应计划的风险是什么,开发应对计划的技术，和如何去写那些关于出现可能性高，对项目影响大的风险的计划，那就让我们开始吧。

风险应对计划

风险应对计划是决定采取什么方法去演绎危险的程序(尤其是对进度和成本方面)当利用他的机会的时候，其他风险就显现出来了。

通常,你会想要开发哪些潜在的高概率和高影响的风险的风险应对计划。它不是高效的去花费时间去写那些不可能发生或者如果发生也不会影响项目重要性的风险的应对计划。举例来说,如果我建设一个旅游中心在莫哈韦沙漠中,我不会把时间花在一个可能下雨的风险的应对计划上的(莫哈韦沙漠的每年平均降雨量仅为2.5英寸),所以这种风险确实可能存在着,但它几乎不可能会影响我的项目。我会稍后在本章的“应急计划”部分中处理这些类型的风险。

记住,风险管理的规划,包括开发风险应对计划,不是一次性的运动。当你通过项目的进行并且了解更多的潜在的风险事件的影响,你就会重新评估它们的影响,这可能要求改变战略来解决这个风险和一个新的或是修正过的应对计划。尽管已经提前关注哪些可能阻止你达到项目目标的风险，但也不要忘记风险能产生机会。

不确定的确定性

有一件事是肯定的:你的项目有风险,如果你选择去忽略它们,你的项目将有一个不确定的结果。所有的项目风险与信息及交流的可用性密切相关,或缺乏信息及交流,正如我一直在前面谈论的一样。你拥有的信息越多,就越有可能你能预测其风险事件及其带来的影响。你越能更好的确定风险的影响，你就越能更好的创造风险引对计划在考虑风险应对计划时，注意风险的结果一般可以把它分为三大类: 已知风险为可预测结果的;

已知风险为不确定结果的;

未知风险为不可预知结果的;

这是相当明确的。一个已知的风险是那些你知道有可能发生的事情。术语可预测的结果是指当某些风险发生时你可以通过一些原因来知道这些风险事件的影响和结果是什么。不可预知的结果是指那些风险事件的影响和结果不能被充分认识及了解。让我们用一个简单的例子,去解释每一个这样的结果。例如你决定在这个周末把你的车库门重新刷一遍。其中一个可能阻碍你完成这个目的的风险便是天气情况。没有问题—你可以浏览网络来查看一下当地的天气预报,预报空气清晰、天空晴朗,而阵雨的可能性很小。你有一些方法去学习关于天气的知识(英特网网站)和确定影响的可能性(有百分之十的可能性下阵雨)。这意味着你知道,通过可预测的可能性,这样的风险出现的机会很低。要知道不确定结果的风险更加困难,嗯,因为他们的结果是不确定的。然而,不确定因素的数量是可能变化的。例如,你可能知道要下雨了,但不知道何时将会开始下雨和雨会持续多长时间。当你正在面对的是不确定结果的项目风险时,我建议你尽你最大力量去学习所有关于风险和其可能产生影响的知识。(因为影响是无法预料的，这并不总是有可能预料到的。)你应该同利益相关者见面，研究过去的项目,并尽可能从这些不确定结果的项目中得到相关信息。你知道的越多越好。

前面列出的最后一点,未知的并且不可预知结果的风险，是指你不知道某个风险并且不知道它会产生的影响。这是一个未知结果及不可预料到的风险。假设你正在快乐地刷车库门，并且当一群鹅恰好飞过你的屋子时，你已完成了四分之三的工作。你猜对了，一个能不提前知道的并且不可预知结果的风险已经发生了。

许多工程决策的制定都没有从知道所有事实后这方面中受益，并且风险分析是没有可以期望的。风险,毕竟,主要是关于不确定性。分析风险可以告诉你风险可能发生的结果,和应对计划阐述怎样处理这些结果。

你确定的结果可能性越多,就越容易开发风险应对计划。例如,如果你知道在你刷车库那天下雨是一个既定事实,你就可以相当准确的设计你的风险应对计划。你可以推迟刷车库到新的一天,而这天可以用打扫地板代替。

或者,也许你有理由的确定知道那天会下雨,但直到下午才会开始下雨。在这种情况下,在早上你要尽可能很快就把门刷完当天空依旧晴朗时(或云卷),然后向里开门从而使门上的漆被屋顶保护，直到漆干了。

风险应对计划的目的

风险规划的目的是决定最恰当的反应来减少、控制、或者利用风险事件。随着确定应对计划,你会想要确保你对此风险事件选择了正确的应对方法。之后在确定策略使用时,你要做出活动计划来使这个策略发挥作用当风险事件发生的时候。

风险计划的第二个目的是确定风险的所有者。我在第二章“辨识、记录的风险。”中已经提到风险拥有者及他们应负的责任。一旦计划完成,风险的业主负责观察风险的发生,跟踪风险,如果出现风险发生的征兆时业主要建议实施应对计划,并且一旦风险应对计划实施要监测它的有效性。

风险应对计划也有一个额外的好处。当风险事情真的发生时,你就能保持沉着,冷静,及清醒的头脑从而知道做什么。

而不是像我们的朋友-奈德那样的反应,你会平静地得到应对计划文件,进而知道该怎么做。当你在恐慌模式时,这样做的目的是为了尽可能快的解决这个问题。这意味着你通常通过你能想到的最快的最简单的方式去处理事情，从而使你能让每件事都在你的掌握之中。但是,在长远的计划中直接的控制不是必要的解决问题的方法。应对计划允许你确定解决风险的最佳方法,这让你有更高的几率达到你项目的目标。

风险应对技术

你有几个策略处理风险,它们有助于减少或控制风险事件的影响。最常见的策略是如下:

1、避免

2、转移*缓解

3、接受

4、应急计划

5、独立的验证和确认

每一种技术有其优点和缺点。在决定使用哪个策略之前,你要确定你了解你正在处理的风险类型,以及风险的严重程度。你会想选择处理这个风险事件最有效花费最高效的方法。如果它需要你比风险本身的结果花费更多成本,你可能要考虑一个不同的策略。

避免

你可能已经猜到我的风险防范技术是关于怎样避免风险的。真的。它包括的不仅仅是那个,然而，风险规避技术包括下列事项:

避免随之而来的风险

消除风险的起因事件

改变项目计划, 来从风险事件中保护目标

让我们来看一些各个技术的例子。完全避免风险意味着你知道结果风险的相对确实性,可以采取措施阻止风险事件的发生。假设奈德和球队前往机场,搭乘航班去巴黎。为了保持奈德自己平时的习惯,他已经提出了每个人都提高到最后一秒。如果他们离开哪怕晚一点点,他们就没有时间来检查内德带来的万件行李,并且还要经过安全检查赶上那趟航班。雪莉是一个应急项目经理,决定在离开之前去做一个交通检查。她登录互联网发现他们正计划去机场的那个高速公路上有重大的事故。为了避免延迟和避免错过这次航班,雪莉决定另选路线,避开这个事故从而避免了事故风险事件。

风险的消除是类似于这样的一些技术性工作。雪莉知道，团队的行李看起来很像在机场运输带上看到的某种行李。这个团队会具有一些敏感的公司信息和几件专业的设备。当在飞机上的时候，雪莉能够通过使用随身携带的公司材料和特殊设备来消除这些风险产生的原因。

这个照片的任务目的之一，就是拍摄巴黎人每天的所作所为，例如在公园散步、在;路边的咖啡店吃东西、购物或者类似的其他户外活动。当暴风雨突然来临的时候，这样的摄影就会被假定为会发生的。雪莉通过切换室内外当天拍摄的内容，来改变项目的计划，从而在风险事件中保护项目目标。

当你能够规避风险时，这是一个有效的办法。麻烦的地方在于，它不是对每个风险都适用，所以，让我们来一些更多的技术方法。