中国能源转型与可再生能源发展
中国能源转型与可再生能源发展Energy Transition and Renewable Energy Development
in China
耿丹，气候议会/中国循环经济协会可再生能源专业委员会
Geng Dan，Climate Parliament/Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association
May 25, 2016
主要内容Contents
?应对气候变化推动能源转型
Climate change push energy transition in the world ?中国能源转型战略
China’s Strategy of Energy Transition
?全球能源互联网助推能源转型
Global energy interconnection and energy transition ?中国与全球能源转型的合作
China’s Role to Promote Global Energy Transition
全球应对气候变化推动了能源转型，Climate change push energy transition in the world
巴黎协定确定的全球长期目标对全球及中国的能源转型提出了要求
Energy transition in the world and China is crucial for the achievements of the global long-term goals set in the Paris Agreement
?《巴黎协定》进一步明确了应对气候变化全球目标Global long-term goals set in the Paris Agreement
?到世纪末实现2/1.5℃温控目标 (Article 2)
2/1.5 ℃ Temperature limits by the end of the century
?尽早达峰目标 (Article 4.1)
To reach global peaking of GHG as soon as possible ?本世纪下半叶人为温室气体源汇平衡(Article 4.1)
A balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources
and removals by sinks of GHG in the second half of this century 全球达峰Global Peak
巴黎协定确定的全球长期目标和国家自主贡献对中国能源转型提出了要求。
China’s energy transition is crucial for the achievements of the global long-term goals set in the Paris Agreement and mitigation targets in its INDC.
中国国家自主贡献目标 INDC targets
?到2030年左右达到CO2排放峰值
To peak the CO 2 emission around 2030
?非化石能源20%
To increase the share of non-fossil fuel in primary energy use to about 20%
?2015年，中国的温室气体排放量约占全球30%，其温室气体排放趋势对于全球排放路径至关重要。
C hina’s GHG emission accounts for around 30％ of the world’s total, therefore its emission trends is key for the global trajectory.
?中国排放达峰是全球排放达峰的基础，而中国实现能源转型是达峰的前提。
China reaching its GHG emission peak will build solid base for achieving that of the world’s, and to achieve an energy transition would be a pre-condition for China’s peak.
全球能源转型从国家开始起航，Global energy transition has started by countries
?美国从能源革命到清洁电力计划
?德国和英国逐步减少煤炭发电?日本逐步降低煤炭发电比例?印度、中国大力发展可再生能源
?中东产油大国也在行动，阿联酋的酋长笑谈什么时候卖出最后一桶油?USA started energy revolution in 2009 and Put CPP in 2016 ?Phase our coal-fired power both in Germany and UK ?Even in Japan, coal fired power will be only 25% by 2030 ?Renewable energy has developed in India and China ?OPEC has also thought about the energy transation
Energy transition in countries
?美国-清洁电力计划（环保署） US-Clean Power Plan (EPA) ?欧盟能源转型-德国能源转型
Europe-Energiewende in Germany
?印度发起太阳能联盟
India- International Solar
Alliance (Premier Narendra
Modi)
?非洲清洁能源走廊
Africa-Clean Energy Corridor ?中国能源革命 China- Energy Revolution
?C40 – 100%可再生能源城市, 纽约市长布隆伯格先生发起了100%的可再生能源城市，大约1000个城市响应，其中不少城市在2020年实现100%的可再生能源
C40 Cities- about 1000 cities responsible to Mr. Boomberg, the 100% Renewable Energy Challenge—an initiative bringing together global leaders to co-create solutions to achieve 100 percent renewable energy cities.
Energy transition in cities
?能源突破联盟
- 清洁能源技术创新
Breakthrough Energy Coalition- Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Richard Branson and other high-profile entrepreneurs have pledged to spark a “new economic revolution” based around clean energy.
Energy transition in business
中国减缓气候变化的目标2020 China’s targets for 2020 on climate change
2020 2030
碳强度
Carbon
intensity
比2005年下降40-45%
Decease by
增加森林面积4千万公顷
Increase forested area by 40 million ha.
增加森林蓄积量13亿立方米
Increase forest stock volume by 1.3 billion m3
2005
非化石能源在一次能源中的
占比
Share of non-fossil fuel in
primary energy
consumption
升至约15%
Increase to about 2020
中国减缓气候变化的目标2030——国家自主贡献
China’s targets for 2030 on climate change——INDC
2020 2030
二氧化碳排放
CO2 emission
2030
在2030年左右达到峰值Peak around 2030
比2005年下降60-65% Decrease by
碳强度
Carbon
intensity
非化石能源占比
Share of non-
fossil fuel
[值]
提高至20%
60-65%
森林蓄积量
Forest
stock
volume 比2005年增加
45亿立方米
4.5 billion m3
减缓 Mitigation
中国能源转型战略
China’s strategy of energy transition
中国将能源转型作为长期国家战略
China has made energy transition a long-term national strategy ?中国将能源转型作为长期国家战略
Energy transition set as a long-term national strategy
?2013年9月，国务院颁布大气污染治理“国十条”，指向能源转型
September 2013, the State Council released the Action Plan for Air
Pollution Prevention and Control ，with goals of air pollution control
and measures of energy transition.
?2014年4月，李克强总理在国家能源委员会会议上提出了国家能源变
革的要求。
April 2014, Premier Li Keqiang pledged the country’s crucial needs of
energy evolution.
?2014年6月，习近平总书记在中央财经领导小组第六次会议上提出中
国能源革命的五大任务，把能源的清洁化、低碳化发展作为能源转
型的首要目标。
June 2014, President Xi Jinping called for an Energy Revolution in
energy production and consumption.
中国已开始能源转型的征程，并取得重要进展。
China has made significant achievements in energy transition. ?中国能源转型取得重要进展
Significant achievements have been achieved
?2014年，中国首次实现燃煤发电量和煤炭消费量的负增长。
By 2014, China for the first time witnessed decrease in coal-fire
power generation and coal consumption.
?2015年，中国发电总量首次下降2%，但非化石能源发电量净增1500亿千瓦时。
In 2015, China's output of electric power dropped 2%, meanwhile non-fossil power generation increased 150GWh.
?2015年，中国可再生能源发电量占比达到24.8%，较2012年提高4.8%。
In 2015, China’s renewable energy power generation reached 24.8%, with an increase of 4.8 % in 3 years. 可再生能源发电量
Renewable
energy power
比2013年提高4.6%
RE power share increased
by 4.8% from 2013.
2013 2015
非化石能源占比
Share of non-fossil fuel
in primary energy
升至约12.2%
Increase
to12.21% from
11.37%
2014
12.21%
2015
11.37%
能源结构 Energy Structure
12.2%
一次能源消费 Primary Energy Consupmtion
Non-Fossil Fuel
Others
319 GW
Hydro Power
水电
43.2 GW
Solar Power 光伏
129 GW
Wind Power
风电
27.17 GW
Nuclear Power
核电 2015
中国能源转型行动进展
China’s achievements in energy transition
可再生能源占比
Renewable Energy Share
11.06%
一次能源消费 Primary Energy Consupmtion
Renewable Others
501.72GW 15.1% increase 可再生能源装机
Renewable Capacity
2015
2015
1391.7billionkwh 8.3% increase
可再生能源发电
Renewable Electricity
2015
33.3%
总发电装机
Total Capacity Installed
Renewable Others
24.8%
总发电量
Total Electricity Output
Renewable Others
可再生能源投资
Renewable Energy Investment
2015
188.4
191.8
194.5
219.6
280.1 314.1
47.6%
51.7%
52.1%
56.7%
64.8%
61.6%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
0.0
50.0100.0150.0200.0250.0
300.0350.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
可再生能源投资（十亿元）
可再生能源占电源建设投资比例
Renewable energy
investment (billion CNY) Renewable energy investment Share
中国可再生能源发展挑战
Major bottlenecks that impede China’s renewable energy development
?可再生能源发电基地与沿海负荷中心的错位。
Imbalance between renewable energy power base (west and north area) and coastal load centers.
?跨省电力互联匮乏，难以满足可再生能源送出需求。
Inadequate energy interconnection, leading to serious curtailment of wind and solar in areas that already have a high penetration of renewables
?西部省份弃风弃光现象日趋严重。
In 2015, financial losses from wind curtailment were worth over 18bn Yuan, almost offsetting the overall value of wind installations。
全球能源互联网助推能源转型Global energy interconnection and energy
transition
全球能源转型为全球能源互联网提供了市场需求energy transition creates market demand for Global energy interconnection
?全球能源转型的基础的可再生
能源的广泛利用
?全球能源互联是解决可再生能
源的间歇性和波动性的技术途
径
?早在1970年代美国人就提出了
把全球的风电和太阳能发电连
起来的梦想
?德国人也提出了与非洲、中东
相连解决欧洲的能源供应问题