欧洲移民危机

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Today though we are looking at the Impact of the immigrant crisis on Europe,

今天我们来看一下移民危机对欧洲的影响。

This is a thorny subject and one beset with both moral,humanitarian conflict and economic considerations.

这是一个烫手的山芋，既有道德和人道主义纷争，又有经济方面的考量。

However the rise in immigration has now become a major issue in Europe, exaggerated in the past couple of years by the numerous conflicts that have sprung up in the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans which have further accelerated this year. The stream of poignant and heartrending pictures of refugee migrants and their families trying to make their way north after having crossed the Mediterranean or Aegean Sea can have left no viewer untouched. But it also illustrates an age-old truth that on top of those fleeing war and unrest at home these migrants also want to work and simply to build a better quality of life for themselves and their families in a safe far off land. Many have simply walked their way out with only a pitiful handful of possessions or simply the clothes they stand up in whilst others in the professional classes have made the same difficult choice and arrived by more conventional methods .

然而，现在移民激增成为欧洲的一个大问题，过去几年中，这一情况不断恶化，由于中东、非洲以及巴尔干半岛危机，今年的形势愈加严重。难民移民和他们的家人试图穿越地中海或者爱情海北上，场景十分悲惨、心酸，让人无不为之动容。但这也解释了一个古老的真理，在逃离家园战争和动乱的背后，这些移民也希望为自己建立一种更好的生活，为他们的家人寻找一片安全的乐土。不少人只带上简单的随身衣物就上路了，一些职业阶层的人也做了同样艰难的选择，采取了更加传统的方法到达欧洲。

In Europe today that mostly means going to Germany, Scandinavia, Britain and some other places such as the Netherlands by way of the open borders of existing EU members where unemployment levels are low in comparison with the likes of Spain and Greece. Germany, at 4.7%.has the lowest unemployment rate in the whole of the EU whilst Greece has the highest unemployment rate at 25% followed by Spain at 22.2%.

在今天的欧洲，通往德国、斯堪的纳维亚半岛、英国和其他一些国家比如荷兰，通常的做法是借由现有欧盟国家开放的边境，那里的失业率比西班牙和希腊的失业率要低。德国的失业率为4.7%，在整个欧盟国家中，失业水平最低。希腊的失业率最高，达到25%，西班牙以22.2%的失业率紧随其后。

As the free movement of labour is one of the founding principles of the European Union, many migrants will end up where the jobs are and, to some extent, where other migrants from their home region have already settled. This will provide some start-up comfort and support and for many bridge the language barrier of the host country.

由于劳动力的自由流动是欧盟建立的基本原则之一，所有哪里有工作，哪里移民就多，并且那里通常有很多来自相同故土的移民已经定居下来。这可以在初期提供一些安慰和支持，为东道国缓解一些语言障碍隔阂障碍。

The magnitude of the problem now is enormous. Net long-term migration to the UK (immigration less emigration) was estimated to be 330,000 in the calendar year ended March 2015 whilst at a rough guess, Germany may receive 400,000 to 500,000 more immigrants this year than it expected just six months ago.

现在这个问题的重要性不容小觑啦！截止2015年3月，英国的长期净移民估计有33万。粗略估计一下，德国今年接收的外来移民会达到40万至50万，远远超出6个月前的预期。

If so, this would add 0.5% - 0.6% to the German resident population. For the EU average as a whole, the increase may be half that scale.

如果实际情况真是如此，德国的居住人口将增加0.5%-0.6%。对整个欧洲的平均水平而言，增长的人口将是德国规模的一半。

The most common nationality by far of those currently arriving in Greece and Italy is Syrian. Other common nationalities are Eritrean, Afghan, Somali, and Iraqi. In most cases they are fleeing civil war, violence and oppression. Those who do make it to the UK are highly likely to be granted refugee status or humanitarian protection. Legally and morally, they are not illegal immigrants, still less “bogus asylum seekers”. But that’s not the whole story by any means: a considerable number are from countries in west Africa, including Nigeria and Ghana. Here the motivations for most are likely to be primarily economic.

目前抵达希腊和意大利的外来移民主要是叙利亚人。其他还有厄立特里亚人，阿富汗人，索马里人和伊拉克人。他们主要是为逃离内战，暴力和压迫。那些成功到达英国的人，很可能被授予难民身份，或给予人道主义保护。在法律和道义上，他们不是非法移民，也不是“虚假的寻求庇护者”。但无论如何，这也不是整个事情的全貌：还有相当数量的人来自西非国家，包括尼日尼亚和加纳。这里，多数人的动机可能主要出于经济上的考虑。

The EU needs to formulate some common response now, and quickly . These should include: a clearer foreign policy designed to stabilise Syria and Libya. The EU should also urge Turkey to play a fully constructive role. And the EU should put serious financial pressure on Eritrea to reform itself like next-door Ethiopia.

现在欧盟需要制定一些通用的应对措施，并且要快。这些措施包括一个更加明朗的外交政策，旨在稳定叙利亚和利比亚。欧盟也敦促土耳其充分发挥建设性的作用。欧盟还应该对厄立特里亚施加严肃的财政压力，促使其像其邻国埃塞俄比亚一样，进行改革。

The EU also needs a common definition as to who qualifies as a refugee and who can be sent back fast to safe countries of origin. A quota system to distribute refugees makes sense to

process their claims fast.

欧盟也需要一个统一的定义，以区分谁有资格作为难民，以及谁可以被快速安全地送回原籍国。按配额制度实施难民分配，对于快速处理难民请求还是非常有帮助的。

But those who are accepted may ultimately move to where the jobs are and not respect an initial quota distribution between, say, Germany and Hungary or Britain and France for very long.

但那些被接收的难民可能最终前往有工作的地方，并不遵从最初的配额分配，比如在德国和匈牙利之间，或英国和法国之间。

So what economic benefits are likely? Well migration does represent a small stimulus to aggregate demand. Economists estimate that extra spending on migration-related issues may amount to 0.3% to 0.4% of annual GDP in Germany. Similar results could be expected in a few other countries like Britain or the Netherlands. Some countries may even use immigration as a reason to exceed fiscal targets.

那么，这会给经济带来哪些实惠呢？妥善处理的外来移民确实会给总需求带来一点小小的激励。经济学家预测，与移民问题相关的额外开支在德国年GDP中占据0.3%-0.4%的份额。其他国家，比如英国或者荷兰，情况也大致相似。还有些国家甚至可能以外来移民作为理由，超额实现财政目标。

On balance, the result could be a near-term stimulus to demand of some 0.2% of Eurozone GDP for the current half of 2015 and probably the same for 2016.

总之，这一结果可能对需求有短期的刺激作用，对2015年上半年而言，在欧元区GDP中的贡献占据0.2%，也许2016年也是如此。

Longer term as the refugees integrate and work the GDP benefits will be greater. The consultancy Oxford Economics, for example, estimates that the inflow of refugees into Germany may add 0.6% to GDP by the end 2020 and cut inflationary pressures by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%.

长期来看，随着难民的与当地融合及就业，GDP贡献率会更高。比如，咨询公司牛津经济研究院估计，流入德国的难民，截止到2020年年底，会为GDP贡献0.6%的增长，并把通胀压力缩减0.2个百分点，下降到1.6%。

Oxford Economics say their numbers do take into account the argued negative side of large scale immigration surges such as Housing shortages , rising rents , increased burdens on the social services , hospitals , schools , policing, not to mention the impact on initial unemployment, and costs to the taxpayer in benefits payments .

该研究院还表示，这一数据也涵盖了大量移民涌入的消极影响，比如住房短缺，租金上涨，社会服务、医院、学校、警力负担加重、更别提这些因素对初始失业的影响，及其对纳税人福利支付的成本影响等。

These shorter term factors could also have an impact levels of government taxation and with it their ability to meet their short to medium term debt targets.

这些短期因素对政府税收也有一个影响级别，以及在此影响下，政府满足其短期和中期债务目标的能力。

That generalization made, however, it is also clear that no simple or single policy response can be appropriate. Clearly, the impact that this latest crisis will depend upon its length and depth, and this is still largely unknown and here lies the major difficulty in arriving at an assessment of the impact of the crisis on migration which is the lack of reliable and timely data.

然而，也很清楚地是，简单单一的政策反应是不合适的。显然，最近这次危机的影响将取决于危机的深度和广度，现在仍不得而知，目前的主要困难在于评价移民危机的影响，但仍缺乏及时可靠的数据。

Everything depends on how quickly the refugees are processed and allowed to work. And given language training.

一切都取决于难民能否快速得到安置并允许难民开始工作。还有给难民进行语言培训。

One of the iro nies about Europe’s state of panic about migration across the Mediterranean is that for a number of years policymakers have been warning that Europe’s population is ageing and, in many countries, shrinking. The EU’s total fertility rate is just over 1.5 –you don’t need to be a demographer to work out the long-term implications. If it weren’t for migration, the EU’s working-age population would already be shrinking.

欧洲对于跨越地中海的移民持恐慌态度，而欧洲的政策制定者多年来一直嚷着欧洲多国人口正在老龄化，在萎缩，这真的是颇具讽刺意义。欧洲的整体生育率才刚刚超过1.5，你不需要成为人口学家也能算出这其中的长期含义。要不是外来移民，欧洲的劳动年龄人口应该已经萎缩了。

Last year, deaths exceeded births in both Greece and Italy –where the vast majority of the migrants arrived –and in Germany, where the largest number end up. Like that of the UK, Germany’s economy is creating jobs fas ter than the natives can fill them.

去年，希腊和意大利的死亡率超过出生率，现在大批的移民去了希腊和意大利，然而最终在德国安定下来的最多。与英国相比，德国创造工作岗位的速度大于其岗位填补的速度。

But to realise this supply potential for GDP growth it is vital that recipient countries keep their labour markets flexible and upgrade their education systems.

但要这种潜在的供给实现对GDP增长的贡献，接收国一定要保持劳动力市场的灵活性，并升级教育体系。

These refugees have taken huge risks to get to Europe. And arguably these refugees often tend to be more entrepreneurial people. Otherwise, why would they have fled? They should be a net long term gain for an economy, not a burden.

为了抵达欧洲，这些难民也承受了巨大的风险。但无可争辩的是，这些难民通常更具有创业精神。否则，他们为什么要逃离呢？对一个经济体而言，他们应该是长期的净收益，而不是负担。

As a British economist we can’t help thinking of the enormous benefits the UK economy has gained over time from the influx of refugees. One only has to think of the Jews fleeing Nazi persecution or the Asian refugees from Uganda. Both groups became highly productive and useful members of British society. And, their descendants are still building on the previous generations heritage today. The worst possible policy response for governments like Germany or Britain would be to tighten employment laws.These two countries are a draw for immigrants thanks to their recent labour market dynamics. Though it is clear that populist opinion is hampering the decision making by respective their governments who are clearly trying to do the right by the humanitarian issues whilst seeking to placate those at home who fear for their own employment and standards of living.

作为一个英国经济学家，我禁不住想到一段时间后，难民的涌入对英国经济的巨大好处。你只要想想犹太人逃离纳粹，或者亚洲人逃离乌干达，就知道了。这两类人都成为英国社会的优秀成员，产出很高。他们的后代也在继承先辈的基础上，为社会做出新的贡献。政府可能做出的最坏的政策反应，比如德国政府或英国政府，可能就是收紧劳动法。由于其劳动力市场的近期动态，德国和英国倒是吸引不少移民。显然，尽管民粹主义的观点妨碍了各自政府的决定，政府显然试图做出正确人道的决策，并试图安抚那些在家里担心自己就业状况和生活水平的人。

They are treading a very fine line here because if Britain and Germany make it more difficult to create jobs, they could store-up enormous social trouble for the future. For example, raising minimum wages and tightening rules for temporary work contracts would not seem to be the right policies when you have a rising level of immigrants.

他们也是在走钢丝，因为如果英国和德国难以创造更多的就业岗位，那他们就给未来埋下大量的社会问题。比如，当移民水平不断上升时，提高最低工资水平，严格临时工作合同，似乎就不太明智了。

Immigration is a very contentious issue. It touches upon fundamental questions of culture and national identity.

移民问题确实非常棘手。它涉及到文化和民族认同上的基本问题。

A rise in immigration as we have seen only too well in the last UK election campaign often triggers some right-wing populist backlash. Governments should do their utmost to avoid this

happening.

在过去英国的竞选活动中，移民增加通常激发右翼民粹主义的回归。政府应尽量避免右翼民粹主义的回归。

But the bigger story in Europe remains that the Eurozone economy is now creating jobs at a reasonable rate. France currently is an exception to this. But, so long as Europe does not get its policy response badly wrong, Europe can cope with the economic and political impact of immigration.

但是欧洲的大背景依然是欧元区经济正以合理的速度创造工作岗位。当然，法国例外。但是，只要欧洲的政治反应不要错得太离谱，欧洲依然能解决好移民问题的经济影响和政治影响。

Perhaps the most important lesson to be learned here is the need to distinguish long-term from short-term trends in the migration and development nexus. Clearly EU governments need to continue to prepare for the migrants they need The current thinking and data on migration in general tends to be problematic and this is even starker in the current climate coming as it has amidst the global economic slowdown and with governments in the developed world struggling to keep their respective economies float. The EU needs to work quickly now or the continuing levels of dissention will eat like a cancer into the very heart of the Union and the new found levels of confidence in the euro will quickly erode once gain putting the currency under threat once more. As we have noted in previous reviews on the Greek crisis the fate of the single currency remains under threat and has most bank research analysts looking for parity with the dollar within the next twelve months This is primarily because more QE will be needed for longer to help the Eurozone economy grow again. This also means interest rates will also remain low as the ECB battles to inject more life into the Eurozone economy. But while this is going on US growth is likely to remain steady to possibly rising further despite the recent anxiety over last week’s Fed decision to keep rates on hold for at least another month or so. In this environment then a decisive and coordinated action plan over the immigrant issue can only help to restore some much needed confidence in the market all round .

也许，这里最重要的教训，是需要区分移民和发展关系中的长期趋势和短期趋势。显然，欧洲政府要继续为他们需要的移民做准备。目前关于移民的想法和数据，总体来说，是有问题的，甚至在当前背景下看是刻板的，因为欧洲也处于全球经济下滑的大背景下，发达国家的政府也正努力保持各自的经济浮动。欧洲现在必须要行动快，否则分歧的持续升级会像癌症一样侵蚀欧盟的心脏，欧元新建起来的信心也将再次迅速消失，让欧元再一次受到威胁。我们在前几期希腊危机的评论中指出，单一货币的命运依然受到威胁，多数银行的研究员都预计未来12个月里，欧元兑美元将跌至平价。这主要是因为欧洲经济的再次增长需要更多的量化宽松支持。这也表明利率将继续保持低位，因为欧洲央行意欲给欧洲经济注入更多活力。但与此同时，美国经济可能依然稳定，也可能进一步增长，尽管担心上周美联储决定把利率不变的状态至少再维持一个月或更久。在此背景下，针对移民问题作出一个果断和协调一致的行动计划只能有助于重拾市场必须的一些信心。

This has been Alex Heath reporting to you for GKFX

这就是本期的Alex Health 视频报道。Goodbye and…. Thanks for watching

再见，感谢您的观看。