(完整版)第14课初级商品市场外刊经贸知识选读,每课重要知识点,串讲,课文翻译,推荐文档

第14课初级商品市场

Soft Commodities非耐用商品

Many prices are at historic lows, and the IMF expects further falls.Yet there are signs that the worse may be over.One key commodity, sugar, has recovered.

许多商品的价格处于历史最低点，虽然国际货币基金组织预计价格还会进一步下跌。但是，有迹象表明，最糟的局面已经结束了。因为“糖”这种关键性商品的价格已经回升了。

Markets Have Lost Their Allure

市场已失去吸引力

For Most people involved in the production and trading of “soft” or agricultural commodities, this is proving to be a grim decade.

对于大多数生产并买卖非耐用商品或农业品的人来说，这十年无疑是阴暗的十年。

Prices are in many cases at, or near, historic lows in real terms as markets struggle to cope with floods of surplus produce.And—with most soothsayers forecasting flat, or still lower, prices—the markets themselves have lost much of their allure.

许多情况下，产品的价格都在实际意义上处于或接近历史最低价，这是因为市场要应付泛滥成灾的过剩的农产品。同时，大多数预言家预测价格将会持平，或者更低。市场自身已经失去了很多的魅力。

Speculators who profited handsomely from the price volatility of the 1970s have deserted soft commodities for the newer excitement of financial futures or the security and big yields afforded by the equity and money markets.

从20世纪70年代的价格不稳中大笔获益的投机者们已经放弃了非耐用商品而寻求金融期货或有价证券带来的新的刺激以及股票和货币市场提供的巨额利润。The contrast with the “resources decade” of the 1970s could hardly be more marked.It is strange, indeed, to observe that only 10 years have elapsed since spiraling commodity prices were the focus of major international concern, and many respected forecasters were warning of impending global shortages of basic raw materials and foodstuffs.

这和70年代的“资源十年”之间的对比是再明显不过的了。确实很奇怪，仅仅十年前，国际上关心的焦点还是不断盘旋上升的价格，许多受人尊重的预言家们一直在警告全球性的基础原材料和食品短缺即将到来。

The shortages never came, and the terms of trade have now shifted dramatically against the commodity producers.Agricultural commodities have been particularly badly https://www.360docs.net/doc/ca8975608.html,st year alone, the International Monetary Fund’s indices of food prices and of agricultural raw material prices fell by 15 per cent and 12 per cent https://www.360docs.net/doc/ca8975608.html,modity prices in general were about 35 per cent below their 1980 average in 1985 according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

然而，短缺从未出现，现在的贸易条件已经转为对商品生产者大为不利，特别是农产品遭到了严重的打击。仅仅去年一年，国际货币基金组织的食品和农业原材料的价格指数就分别下跌了15％和12％。联合国贸易和发展会议（贸发会）的

资料显示，总体上，1985年的商品价格比1980年的平均值大约低35％。What is more, currency movements over the past year have unexpectedly made matters worse for many producers.In the first half of the 1980s, it was conventional wisdom to say that the exceptional strength of the dollar was partly responsible for—and helped to offset—the increasing weakness of dollar-denominated commodity prices.All other things being equal, so the argument went, a subsequent fall in the dollar might be expected to give a compensating boost to dollar commodity prices.

而且，过去一年中的货币动态出人意料地把许多制造商的事情搞得更糟。80年代的上半期，人们普遍认为，美元的异常坚挺部分地导致了——同时也有助于弥补——以美元标价的商品价格的日益降低。因此，又有观点说，在其他条件都不变的情况下，美元日后的下跌可能会补偿性地提高以美元标价的商品的价格。But now the dollar has fallen, and the very reverse has happened: commodity prices have continued to tumble from the peak they reached in the second quarter of 1984.when calculated in a more representative basket of currencies, such as the Special Drawing Right, the fall looks even more precipitous.In May of this year, for example, the IMF’s food price index was a furth er 10 per cent below its level in the second quarter of 1985.

可是现在美元已经贬值，结果恰恰相反的情况出现了：商品的价格继续从1984年第二季度所达到的高峰暴跌。如果以一个更有代表性的“一篮子”货币来计算，比如，特别提款权，这一下跌就显得更为急促。以今年五月为例，国际货币基金组织的粮食价格指数比1985年的第二季度就又下降了10％。

There are signs that the worst of the fall may now be over; indeed, one key commodity, sugar, has rebounded impressively from the lows of last year, though even the sugar price remains below the most efficient grower’s cost of production, and its rally appears to have run out of steam.For the rest, nobody is bold enough to forecast a major improvement either this year or next.The IMF, for its part, believes that the prices of most commodities will fall substantially in 1986—with only sugar, tropical timber and hides among the softs likely to rise significantly.

有迹象表明，最严重的下跌可能已经过去了；确实，“糖”这种主要商品已经从去年的低谷中有了显著的回升。虽然它的价格仍然低于最高效的种植者的生产成本，它的跌停回升好像已经失去了动力。对于其他初级商品，没有人敢妄言在今年或明年会有大的改观。而国际货币基金组织认为，大多数的商品都会在1986年大幅下跌，非耐用商品中，只有糖、热带木材和皮革可能会有显著上升。（但是，对等贸易并不是债务国所独有的。约非说：“即使像澳大利亚、加拿大和印度尼西亚这样外汇地位强健的国家也坚持在某些领域从事对等贸易。把进口和出口联系起来是一种对跨国公司施加权力的途径。缺乏国际营销专业知识的国家试图用对等贸易作为杠杆来推动跨国公司的内部市场网络。”）

“The behaviour of commodity prices is, to say the least, bewildering,” remarket Mr Alister Mclntyre, the acting head of UNCTAD, at a recent meeting of the body’s commodities committee.

贸发会的代理秘书长阿里斯特?迈克因特尔先生在该组织的初级商品委员会最近一次会议上说，“至少可以说，商品的价格行为令人迷惑。”

To many developing countries, the trend is deeply worrying as well as

bewildering—the terms of trade have worsened dramatically for them.Between 1980 and 1985, their export earnings from an IMF-selected sample of 17 commodities dropped by 16 per cent.

对于许多发展中国家而言，这种趋势不仅令人迷惑，还令人深深地担忧——贸易条件对于他们已经明显恶化。1980到1985年间，从国际货币基金组织抽取的17种商品样品来看，他们的出口收人下降了16％。

For the industrialized world, by contrast, the drop in commodity prices has been a real boon in the fight against inflation.As Lloyds Bank commented recently:

相反，对于工业化国家而言，商品价格的下跌是他们在对抗通货膨胀中得到的及时的恩赐。正如劳埃德银行最近评说的：

“The weakness of dollar commodity prices, combined with the decline of the dollar, is having an important restraining influence on inflation in many industrial countries.Even in the United States, where a falling dollar would tend to boost inflation, weak commodity prices have helped to prevent relatively rapid GNP growth from being accompanied by accelerating inflation.”

“以美元标价的商品的疲软，再加上美元的下跌，对许多工业国家的通货膨胀起到了重要的抑制作用。即使在美国，贬值的美元容易助长通货膨胀，疲软的商品价格有助于防止国民生产总值相对较快增长的同时出现通货膨胀加快的现象。”The explanation for the general weakness in commodity prices is complex, and the factors in play will obviously vary greatly from one commodity to another.

商品价格普遍疲软的原因是复杂的。作用的因素也很明显地区别于一种商品和另外一种商品。

Coffee, for example, has proved to be an exception to the declining trend over the past nine months, because of a drought in the biggest producing country, Brazil.

例如咖啡，在过去的9个月中实属例外，因为它最大的生产国，巴西遭遇了一场干早。

In the case of some “temperate” agricultural pr oducts, such as the grains, on the other hand, there is a particularly severe glut of supplies, and world market prices are continuing to decline under the influence of a price-cutting war between the US and the EEC.The US is also setting out this year to arrest the decline in its exports of soyabeans, cotton, tobacco and rice—with potentially devastating consequences for many producers of these commodities in the Third World.

另一方面，对于一些价格相对平稳的农产品来说，比如谷物，出现了特别严重的供给过剩现象。其世界市场价格在美国和欧共体削价大战的影响下不断下跌。美国今年还要着手阻止大豆、棉花、烟草和大米的出口量的下滑——可能会给生产这些产品的许多第三世界国

家带来毁灭性的后果。

There are also deep uncertainties about the effects of the most dramatic commodity price crash of them all—that in the crude oil market over the last year.While falling oil prices ought to provide a fillip to western economic growth—and therefore, indirectly, to demand for other commodities—they are bound to have other, perhaps less desirable, spin-offs.

商品价格最显著的暴跌要算是去年的原油市场了。它所造成的影响也很难确定。按理说，下降的油价应该会刺激西方经济的增长——因此，会间接地刺激对其他

商品的需求，然而，它也肯定会带来其他不太受人喜欢的副产品。

For producers of rubber and natural fibres such as cotton for example, the drop in the oil price is bound to mean increased competition from synthetic products.In tea and sugar, to name but two other commodities, it is already taking its toll in the from of reduced purchases by cash-strapped oil-producing states.

对于橡胶和诸如棉花等天然纤维的生产商来说，石油价格的下跌肯定意味着来自合成产品的竞争的加强。只要再举出两种初级商品，比如茶叶和糖就可以说明问题。它们的生产商已经因为现金短缺的产油国压缩购买而遭受损失。Nevertheless, several common features—which would apply to metals and minerals, just as much as to soft commodities—can be identified.

然而，几个共同特点－—可以适用于金属和矿产品，也可适用于非耐用商品—是可以识别的。

First, world economic growth remains generally sluggish and has been at its weakest in manufacturing, as opposed to the services sector.Uncertainties over the future of the US recovery and slow growth in Europe are keeping demand for key industrial raw materials relatively depressed.In many of the newer and heavily-indebted industrial countries, commodity consumption has been squeezed, as a result of official austerity programmes.

首先，世界经济的增长总体上仍处在萧条状态，其中，制造业最弱而服务部门却恰恰相反。美国未来经济复苏的不确定性和欧洲经济的缓慢增长一直压抑着对主要工业原材料的需求。在许多新兴或负重债的工业国家中，商品消费因为官方的简朴计划而被压缩。

Second, developing states have had to maximize commodity exports in order to keep up their foreign exchange earnings and offset the decline in unit commodity prices.This, in turn, has aggravated oversupply problems.It is true of Chile in the copper market, as it is of Brazil in soyabeans or Malaysia in palm oil.

其次，一些发展中国家不得不最大量地加大商品出口，以保持他们的外汇收人并补偿商品单价的下降。这样转而加剧了供给过量的问题。智利在黄铜市场上如此，巴西在大豆市场上，马来西亚在棕桐油市场上也是如此。

Third, the world has got used to living with much lower levels of stocks than in the inflationary 1970s.On the one hand, the persistence of high real interest rates has increased the cost of carrying large inventories, and consumers are, in any case, quite happy to defer purchase when prices are on the way down.

第三，世界已经习惯了比70年代的通货膨胀时期低得多的库存量。一方面，持续的高实际利率增加了运送大批存货的成本；另一方面，消费者们无论如何都十分乐意等到价格下降时再购物。

Fourth, investment funds have moved out of commodities—which were bought in the 1979s as stores of value—and into more liquid assets, Traders complain about a lack of price volatility; several markets speak of the need to attract back speculative business—and of the difficulty of doing so in the present climate.Gone are the days when the focus was on possible market distortions resulting from excessive speculative activity.

第四，投资资金已经从商品中撤出来—20世纪70年代人们购买商品作为价值储存——现在，资金投到了更易变卖的资产上来。贸易者们抱怨价格缺乏变化；

一些市场提到需要把投机生意吸引回来——同时也提到在目前的情况下这样做的困难。那些关注于过多的投机行为可能引起市场混乱的日子已经一去不复返了。

Finally, and perhaps most significantly, there is evidence of a more fundamental shift in the pattern of supply and demand for a number of commodities, and of a long-term downward trend in commodity prices.Looked at from this perspective, the scarcity worries of the 1970s were merely a temporary aberration resulting from a sudden spurt of economic growth and from the OPEC oil price shock.

最后，也许也是最重要的，有证据表明：许多商品的供求模式发生了比较重要的转变，同时，商品价格有长期下降趋势。从这个角度来看，20世纪70年代对商品短缺的种种担忧不过是一种暂时的偏离，这种现象是由于经济的突然加速发展和欧佩克的油价冲击造成的。

The long-term downward trend, known among economists as the “Prebisch effect,” is said to reflect increasing efficiency, both in the production and in the consumption of commodities.Increasing production efficiency would tend to increase supplies, while increasing efficiency in the way commodities are consumed tends to reduce demand.

这种商品价格长期下降的趋势，即经济学界所谓的“普雷比斯效应”，据说反映了效率的提高，既是生产效率的提高，也是商品消费效率的提高。生产效率的提高往往会增加供给，而在商品消费方式上提高效率往往会减少需求。

Agricultural productivity has grown rapidly across the board, whether through new higher-yielding wheat varieties, or specially-bred hybrid cocoa tress or oil palms.

农业生产率已经得到了全面且迅速的提高。不管是在高产小麦新品种方面还是在特别培育的杂交可可树或棕榈树方面。

There is a constant shift in the soft commodities business, from the less efficient, higher-cost producers to their more competitive rivals: from Malaysia, say, to Indonesia in palm oil; from the US to Brazil in soyabeans; or from Ghana and Nigeria to the Ivory Coast, Brazil and—increasingly—Malaysia in cocoa.

非耐用商品的业务经常发生转移。从效率较低、成本较高的生产者手里到他们强有力的竞争对手那里，比如说，棕桐油的生意就从马来西亚转到了印度尼西亚；大豆生意从美国转到了巴西；或如，可可的生意从加纳和尼日利亚转到象牙海岸、巴西——越来越多地转到了马来西亚。

Only protectionism, for many products, prevents this shift happening more quickly; or, in the case of coffee, the transition is impeded in normal times by the existence of a rigid export quota system.

对于许多产品来说，只有贸易保护主义才能防止这种转换过快发生；或者，以咖啡为例，在正常情况下，严格的出口配额制度也可起到阻碍作用。

Increasing efficiency, in both production and consumption, is clearly at work in the rubber market.Higher-yielding trees have increased supplies, while consumption in rubber’s main outlet, the tyre industry, has been hit by the general reduction in the size of tyres.

生产和消费双向的效率提高在橡胶市场上发挥了明显的作用。较高产量的橡胶树增加了供给，然而，轮胎工业、橡胶的主要消费市场，却因轮胎尺寸的普遍缩小而受到严重打击。

Perhaps the 1990s will once again prove to be a decade in which resources look in short supply.That certainly seems to be the consensus about oil.But, for the moment, soft commodity producers seem more than capable of growing everything the world wants to buy.

也许，20世纪90年代会成为又一个资源显得短缺的十年。这好像是人们对石油的一致看法。但是，就目前来说，非耐用商品的生产者们的制造能力似乎超过了这个世界对物质的需求。

--From Financial Times.July 23, 1986 ——摘自1986年7月23日《金融时报》

commodity n.商品；初级商品

recover v.（商品价格）回升

allure n.诱惑力；魅力

grim a.严酷的

decade n.十年

to cope with （妥善地）处理；（成功地）应付

soothsayer n.预言家

forecast v.预见

speculator n.投机者

volatility n.变化无常；不稳定性

desert v.开小差；逃亡

yield n.（投资等的）利润

afford v.给予

equity n.（常为equities）股票

elapes v.（时间）消逝

spiral v.不断地急剧上升

impending a.即将发生的

indices n.（index的复数形式）指数

respectively a.分别地

average n.平均值

currency n.货币

conventional a.普通的

denominate v.表明；指明

dollar-denominated 以美元标价的

subsequent a.继之而来的

compensate v.补偿；赔偿

boost n.增长

reverse n.相反情况

tumble v.（价格等）暴跌

precipitous n.急促的；猛冲的

rebound v.（价格的）回升；反弹

rally n.（价格的）止跌；回坚

tropical a.热带的

timber n.木材

hide n.皮革

bewildering a.使人困惑的

trend n.趋势

boon n.恩惠；及时的恩赐restraining a.抑制（性）的accelerate v.加速

factor n.因素

drought n.干旱

Brazil 巴西

temperat a.不极端的；不过分的grain n.谷物

glut n.过剩

set out 开始

soybean n.大豆（黄豆）potentially a.潜在地

devastating a.毁灭性的

crash n.坠落；暴跌

crude a.天然的；未提炼的

fillip n.刺激

spin-offs n.副产品；副作用

fibre n.纤维

synthetic a.合成的

take its toll 造成损失

metal n.金属

mineral v.矿产

identify v.识别；确定

sluggish a.呆滞的

sector n.部门

depressed a.低下的；不景气的indebted a.负债的

austerity n.（国家开支上的）紧缩maximize v.使增加到最大限度offset v.抵消

aggravate v.加剧

Chile 智利

palm n.棕榈

stock n.库存

persistence n.持续状态

inventory n.（美）库存

defer v.推迟

assets n.资产

speculative a.投机的

distortion n.扭曲

evidence n.根据；证明

perspective n.（观察问题的）视角scarcity n.短缺

aberration n.偏离；脱离正轨

spur n.突然加速进行

efficiency n.效率

productivity n.生产率

yielding a.产出的

variety n.品种

bred a.（breed的过去时）培育

hybrid n.杂交的

rival n.竞争对手

Malaysia 马来西亚

Indonesia 印度呢西亚

Ghana 加纳

Nigeria 尼日利亚

the Ivory Coast 象牙海岸（科特迪瓦）protectionism n.保护（贸易）主义transition n.变迁

impede v.妨碍

rigid a.僵化的

quota n.限额；配额

outlet n.销路；销售渠道

type n.轮胎

consensus n.一致的意见

1.yields: profits.elapsed: pssed

3.tumble: slump

4.boost: accelerate

5.offset: balance

6.impeded: hindered

1.spin-offs: 副产品；副作用

2.liquid assets: 流动资产

3.surplus produce: 生产过剩

4.financial futures: 期货

5.currency movements: 货币流通

6.inflation: 通货膨胀

1.价格指数：price index

2.软商品：soft commodities

3.贸发会：UNCTAD

4.削价战：price-cutting war

5.投资基金：investment funds

6.出口配额制度：export quota system

1.Many prices are at historic lows, and the IMF expects further falls.

2.One key commodity, sugar, has recovered.

3.surplus produce

4.… most soothsayers forecasting flat…

5.… big yields afforded by the equity and money markets.

6.spiraling commodity prices

7.currency movements

8.… commodity prices have continued to tumble…

9.… one key commodity, sugar, has rebounded…

10.… its rally appears to have run out of steam.

11.The explanation for the general weakness

12.a particularly severe glut of supplies

13.The U.S.is also setting out this year to arrest the decline in its exports …

14.… they are bound to have other, perhaps less desirable spin-offs.

15.… it is already taking its toll…

16.cash-strapped oil-producing states

17.First, world economic growth remains generally sluggish and has been at its weakest it manufacturing, …

18.In many of the newer and heavily-indebted industrial countries, commodity consumption has been squeezed, as a result of official austerity programmes.

19.… to maximise commodity exports …

20.unit commodity prices

21.Third, the world has got used to living with much lower levels of stocks …

22.the cost of carrying large inventories

23.… when prices are on the way down.

24.stores of value

25.liquid assets

26.price volatility

27.the pattern of supply and demand

28.Agricultural productivity has grown rapidly across the board, …

https://www.360docs.net/doc/ca8975608.html,petitive rivals

30.a rigid export quota system

31.Increasing efficiency, in both production and consumption, is clearly at work in the rubber market.

32.… resources look in short supply

1.Speculators who profited handsomely from the price volatility of the 1970s have deserted soft commodities for the newer excitement of financial futures or the security and big yields afforded by the equity and money markets.

因20世纪70年代价格不稳而大捞一把的投机者们已经放弃软商品，去追求期货所带来的新刺激或股票和货币市场所提供的有价证券和巨额利润。

2.To many developing countries, the trend is deeply worrying as well as bewildering—the terms of trade have worsened dramatically for them.Between 1980 and 1985, their export earnings from an IMF-selected sample of 17 commodities dropped by 16 percent.

对于很多发展中国家来说，这种趋势既令人担忧又令人困惑，——对于他们来说，贸易条件急剧恶化。1980年到1985年期间，他们按国际货币基金组织所选的17种商品样出口，其所得利润下降了16%。

3.There are also deep uncertainties about the effects of the most dramatic commodity price crash if them all—that in the crude oil market over the last year.While falling oil prices ought to provide a fillip to western economic growth—and therefore, indirectly, to demand for other commodities—they are bound to have other, perhaps less desirable, spinoffs.

在所有初级商品的价格暴跌中，最引人注目的是去年原油市场价格的暴跌，这一暴跌所产生的影响也相当难确定。虽然下跌的油价会刺激西方经济的增长并因此间接地刺激其他初级商品的需求，这样的油价一定会有其他的，也许不是那么有益的副作用。

4.Finally, and perhaps most significantly, there is evidence of a more fundamental shift in the pattern of supply and demand for a number of commodities, and of a long-term downward trend in commodity prices.Looked at from this perspective, the scarcity worries of the 1970s were merely a temporary aberration resulting from a sudden spurt of economic growth and from the OPEC oil price shock.

最后，也许是最重要的，有根据证明许多商品的供需模式会发生根本性的变化，而且商品价格会长期处于下降趋势。从这一视角来看，20世纪70年代对初级产品短缺的各种担心，只是暂时的脱离正轨。它是由经济增长的突然加快和石油输出国组织的石油价格冲击所造的。

5.Perhaps the 1990s will once again prove to be a decade in which resources look in short supply.That commodity producers seem more than capable of growing everything the world wants to buy.

也许20世纪90年代又将是一个资源显得短缺的10年。人们对石油似乎肯定都会持这种看法。但就目前来说，非耐用初级商品生产者的能力即使用来种植出全球想要购买的一切东西，似乎还戳戳有余。