应急物流系统可靠性研究
Abstract
With the rapid development of science, the technology related to the prediction of natural disasters has developed to a considerable level. However, due to the existence of uncertainties in emergency logistics, sudden natural disasters and sudden public health incidents of different scopes of impact still occur from time to time, which brings devastating blow to humanity undoubtedly, the people’s lives and property, the stability and sustained development of the society have also been greatly threatened. China is a country with high natural disasters, such as the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the Yushu earthquake in 2010. The emergency logistics occurs accompanying disaster relief process, and the existing problems of emergency logistics will be revealed during the disaster relief process. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out research on the reliability of emergency logistics system in theory and practical application.
In this paper, we use the theory of reliability engineering, and referringthree subsystems: the reliability model of materials of emergency logistics system, emergency logistics facilities system and emergency logistics distribution system, theconstruction, optimization and solutionof reliability model of such exploratoryresearch works as follows:
(1) Firstly, this paper defines the concepts of emergency logistics, emergency logistics system and emergency logistics risk management. Then the significance of reliability to emergency logistics system, the influencing factors of reliability of emergency logistics system and the sources of reliability are analyzed, the construction of the reliability model of emergency logistics system is discussed at the same time. Finally, the characteristics and types of emergency logistics are classified and analyzed.
(2) The characteristics of the demand for materials after a sudden disaster are analyzed. In view of the influence of the uncertain situation in the critical period of disaster relief, this paper presents the demand model of emergency supplies combined with fuzzy programming theory and case-based reasoning, then carries out the simulation of the examples so as to more accurately estimate the rescue demand when the disaster occurs, easy to the distribution of emergency supplies, and improve the efficiency of rescue.
(3) Considering that the procurement of emergency supplies is different from ordinary commercial procurement, this paper establishes the incomplete game model of static information from the perspective of game theory, then discusses the strategy selection of suppliers and purchasers in the process of procurement of emergency supplies. Based on the application of the continuous-time Markov chain, a prediction model for the damage of the
emergency supply chain is establishen and the reliability of the emergency supply chain structure is studied.
(4) Combining with the research of emergency logistics network planning, considering the disrupting of the emergency logistics center when disasters happen, a dual-objective emergency logistics center location model with reliability constraints is constructed. And the elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ) is used to solve the model and the case study. The sensitivity of the parameter facility disruption probability is further analyzed to determine the effect of the parameter on the objective function.
(5) Based on the theory of emergency logistics and distribution, the reliability analysis of emergency logistics and distribution vehicles route is taken into account. Considering the constraints of different road traffic capacity reliability on the transportation time of disaster relief materials, an open-loop emergency logistics and routing vehicle routing model with time window is constructed, At the same time, the crowding degree factor in artificial fish swarm algorithm is introduced to improve the searching ability of the standard ant colony algorithm. An improved heuristic algorithm is proposed to solve the model and analyze the case.
The research results mentioned above provided the methods and measures of improving reliability of emergency logistics system. Therefore, it’s of great significance to imp rove the planning of emergency logistics system. Meanwhile, it can provide decision support for emergency logistics operation.
Keywords:emergency logistics, reliability, facility location-allocation, vehicle routing problem, Ant Colony algorithm
目录
第一章绪论 (1)
1.1研究背景及意义 (1)
1.1.1 研究背景 (1)
1.1.2 研究意义 (1)
1.2国内外研究现状 (2)
1.2.1 国外研究现状 (2)
1.2.2 国内研究现状 (5)
1.2.3综述 (7)
1.3研究内容、方法及技术路线 (8)
1.3.1研究内容 (8)
1.3.2研究方法 (9)
1.3.3技术路线 (10)
1.4本章小结 (10)
第二章应急物流系统可靠性相关概念及理论基础 (12)
2.1应急物流相关概念 (12)
2.1.1应急物流的内涵 (12)
2.1.2应急物流系统 (12)
2.2应急物流特点与类型分析 (13)
2.2.1应急物流的特点 (13)
2.2.2应急物流的类型 (14)
2.3风险管理基本理论 (16)
2.3.1风险概念 (16)
2.3.2应急物流风险的特点 (16)
2.3.3应急物流的风险因素 (17)
2.3.4应急物流风险分类 (18)
2.3.5应急物流系统管理流程 (19)
2.4应急物流系统可靠性理论 (20)
2.4.1系统可靠性的概念 (20)
2.4.2系统可靠性的分析方法 (20)
2.4.3可靠性对应急物流系统的意义 (21)
2.4.4系统可靠度及计算 (21)
2.4.5应急物流系统可靠性影响因素 (23)
2.4.6应急物流系统可靠性来源分析 (24)
2.4.7风险与可靠性关系 (25)
2.4.8物流系统可靠性模型 (25)
2.5案例推理和模糊规划基本理论 (27)
2.5.1案例推理基本理论 (27)
2.5.2模糊规划基本理论 (28)
2.6本章小结 (29)
第三章应急物流物资系统可靠性研究 (30)
3.1应急物流物资需求与预测 (30)
3.1.1 突发灾害的基本特征 (30)
3.1.2 突发性灾害后应急物资需求的特点 (30)
3.1.3 应急物资需求预测方法 (33)
3.1.4 算例仿真 (36)
3.2应急物资的库存与供应链管理 (38)
3.2.1 供应链理论和博弈理论 (38)
3.2.2 “协议框架”下应急物资的库存管理 (41)
3.2.3 应急物资的采购博弈分析 (42)
3.2.4算例分析 (49)
3.2.5应急物资供应管理措施及建议 (50)
3.3应急物资供应链结构的可靠性研究 (51)
3.3.1 应急救灾物资的供应链及其可靠性 (51)
3.3.2 连续时间马尔科夫链及其应用 (52)
3.3.3 应急救灾物资供应链损坏的预测 (54)
3.3.4 应急救灾物资供应链结构的可靠性研究 (55)
3.3.5 算例分析 (57)
3.4本章小结 (58)
第四章应急物流网络规划可靠性研究 (59)
4.1.1 应急物流网络规划的含义 (60)
4.1.2 应急物流网络规划的原则 (61)
4.1.3 应急物流网络规划的内容 (62)
4.1.4 应急物流网络规划的步骤 (64)
4.2具有可靠性约束的应急物流中心选址模型 (64)
4.2.1 选址问题及应急可靠性约束描述 (65)
4.2.2 基本假设及参数定义 (66)
4.2.3 决策模型的建立 (67)
4.3模型的求解 (68)
4.3.1 算法概述 (68)
4.3.2 算法具体过程及参数确定 (69)
4.4算例分析 (73)
4.4.1 算例描述 (73)
4.4.2 参数设置 (73)
4.4.3 求解结果 (75)
4.5本章小结 (77)
第五章应急物流配送可靠性研究 (79)
5.1应急物流配送问题 (79)
5.1.1 应急物流配送理论 (79)
5.1.2 应急物流配送系统的结构及功能 (81)
5.1.3 应急物流配送车辆路径可靠性分析 (82)
5.2考虑可靠性约束的应急物流配送车辆路径模型 (83)
5.2.1 问题的描述 (83)
5.2.2 参数定义 (85)
5.2.3 决策模型的建立 (85)
5.3模型求解 (87)
5.3.1 蚁群算法 (87)
5.3.2 人工鱼群算法 (90)
5.3.3 改进启发式算法 (90)
5.4.1 基础算例描述 (92)
5.4.2 参数设置 (93)
5.4.3 求解结果分析 (95)
5.4.4 算法性能评估 (96)
5.5本章小结 (98)
结论和展望 (99)
结论 (99)
研究展望 (101)
参考文献 (102)
附录 (111)
致谢 (120)