全球外国直接投资(FDI)报告2016

THE fDi REPORT 2016 Global greenfield investment trends

THE fDi REPORT 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1

Executive summary

Against a background of global geopolitical

and economic uncertainty, greenfield FDI

is continuing its tentative recovery phase.

According to the findings of this report,

capital investment increased by nearly 9%

in 2015, while the number of jobs created

via FDI grew by 1% to 1.89 million. However,

the number of projects declined 7%.

The fDi Report 2016 is our annual report

recapping the global greenfield investment

trends of the previous year, based on

figures from our data service fDi Markets. We focus on greenfield

investment as it is the sharp edge of foreign investment: it has

the most tangible impact on economic development and is the

most solid indicator of a country’s competitiveness. Greenfield

investment is less volatile than mergers and acquisitions and other

types of foreign investment: hence, M&A flows, which reached

a post-crisis peak in 2015, caused headline FDI flows to swell by

more than a third in contrast with the more tepid growth of strictly

greenfield flows. Dr Henry Loewendahl explains the differences

in how FDI figures are calculated and how they can best be

interpreted on page 3.

There is much to wade through when assessing 2015’s FDI

data, but a few highlights stand out.

The big FDI story of the past year is India. After a long period of

trailing behind China, the south Asian country is now racing past

its formidable rival. India was the highest ranked country by capital

investment in 2015, with $63bn-worth of FDI projects announced.

Meanwhile, China saw a 23% decline in capital investment and a

16% drop in FDI projects. We analyse India’s rise on page 6.

Asia-Pacific remained the leading destination region for FDI

in 2015, attracting 45% of all capital investment globally in 2015

(see page 4). Although the number of FDI projects into the region

decreased by 7%, the total capital investment increased by 29%.

While coal, oil and natural gas has reclaimed its top spot as the

largest generator of capital investment globally, with $113.5bn of

announced FDI recorded in 2015, the once-hot renewable energy

sector is on the rise again, with project numbers increasing by 50%

and capital investment reaching $76bn. This accounts for more

than 10% of all capital investment globally last year. We detail

what is driving expansion in this sector in a special section

beginning on page 18.

For more on all the other top FDI trends of 2015, and

a breakdown of regional and country-level performance

as well as sector analysis, read on. You can also download

a copy of this report, The fDi Report 2016, at

https://www.360docs.net/doc/d13400256.html,/fDiReport.

Courtney Fingar is editor-in-chief of fDi Magazine and head of

content for fDi Intelligence, the Financial Times’ specialist unit

dedicated to foreign direct investment

The big FDI story of the past year

is India. After a long period of

trailing behind China, the south

Asian country is now racing past its

formidable rival

THE fDi REPORT 2016

2In 2015, greenfield FDI continued to show signs of recovery, with

capital investment increasing by nearly 9% to $713bn, alongside

an increase in job creation by 1% to 1.89 million. However, the

number of FDI projects declined 7% to 11,930. India was the highest

ranked country by capital investment in 2015, with $63bn-worth

of FDI projects announced. Major companies such as Foxconn

and SunEdison have agreed to invest in projects valued at $5bn

and $4bn, respectively, in India. The US was the highest ranked

destination by FDI projects, recording 1517 FDI projects in 2015.

Asia-Pacific remained the leading destination for FDI in 2015,

with 3883 announced FDI projects bringing in an estimated capital

investment of $320.5bn. The region attracted 45% of all capital

investment globally in 2015. Western Europe was the leading source

region for FDI in 2015. Despite a decline of 9% in project numbers

to 5047, the region announced capital investments of $234.4bn. In

total, 42% of FDI projects were sourced from western Europe.

Key trends in 2015 include:

? The number of FDI projects into Africa in 2015 increased by 6%

? Inward investment into the region consisting of Russia, the

Commonwealth of Independent States, and central, eastern and

south-eastern Europe was the only region to witness an increase

in FDI across project numbers (6%), capital investment (12%) and

job creation (13%)

? India replaced China as the top destination for FDI by capital

investment following a year of high-value project announcements,

specifically across the coal, oil and natural gas and renewable

energy sectors Global overview GLOBAL OVERVIEW

Unctad, in its January 2016

Investment Monitor, estimates

that global FDI flows increased

by 36% in 2015 to $1700bn. This

compares with The fDi Report 2016,

which estimates that greenfield capital invest-

ment by foreign investors was $700bn in 2015,

an 8.6% increase over the previous year.

So by how much did the FDI market

actually recover in 2015? The answer is in the

different ways of measuring FDI. Unctad FDI

flows data records all types of FDI, based in

most countries on the official OECD definition

of FDI, while the fDi Markets data published in

this report is based on the announcement of

greenfield FDI projects only.

The year-on-year changes in greenfield

FDI, published yearly in The fDi Report, has

closely tracked that of the official FDI flows

data published by Unctad. This changed in

2015 due to record levels of M&A, leading to

the highest crossborder M&A flows since 2007.

As a result, official FDI flows grew substantially

in 2015 by more than one-third. Developed

economies, and the US in particular, attracted

most of the growth in FDI flows in 2015 largely

due to inbound M&As. FDI flows to the US in

2015 reached $384bn – nearly three times

more than FDI flows to China.

While FDI flows emanating from M&As can provide a valuable source of foreign exchange and long-term capital to finance the balance of payments, the economic impact of M&As on the host economy is generally regarded as neutral in terms of the impact on job creation and capital investment; the impact is very much deal specific and depends on what the plans of the foreign investor are for the acquired company – to re-invest and expand or to rationalise or even close down – and if the M&A deal is a successful organisational merger.The economic impact of greenfield FDI is generally regarded as positive – it is new net capital investment and job creation for the host economy. As published in this report, nearly 2 million jobs were directly created by foreign investors in their new or expanded operations in 2015 based on estimates from fDi Markets. Increased domestic capital invest-ment and job creation through the supply chain and the wealth effect further increases the direct and indirect impact of greenfield FDI.Greenfield FDI data is critical for economic development, as discussed in an article I wrote titled “A new foreign direct investment account-ing methodology for economic development organizations” published by the Columbia Centre on Sustainable Development in January 2016. The data published in this report is a strong barometer of FDI trends that will have a direct impact on employment and GDP. The growth in greenfield FDI by 8.6% in 2015 was therefore very positive for economic development, although nearly all the growth in capital investment and related job creation was in Asia-Pacific, where greenfield FDI increased by more than $70bn. The biggest change in greenfield FDI in 2015 was the near tripling of greenfield FDI into India, with an estimated $63bn. In 2015, India was for the first time the leading country in the world for FDI, overtaking the US (which had $59.6bn of greenfield FDI) and China ($56.6bn).The rapid growth of greenfield FDI in India shows that while economic development organisations try to attract FDI for the contri-bution greenfield FDI can make to employ-ment and GDP, FDI is strongly attracted to high-growth economies. Success breeds success and to attract high volumes of FDI, locations need to create the conditions for strong economic growth and development to take place.Dr Henry Loewendahl is the founder and CEO of FDI consultancy Wavteq Ltd and a senior vice-president of fDi Intelligence. He has nearly 20 years of industry and academic experience and has worked with more than 100 governments and corporations.

A tale of two numbers – how to interpret the FDI statistics for 2015 by Henry Loewendahl THE fDi REPORT 2016 VIEWPOINT

3

Forecasts With world GDP growth in 2016 being revised downwards and given the continued unrest in the Middle East, the Chinese economic slowdown and the growing impact of Zika on Latin America, we are forecasting greenfield FDI to decline by at least 5% in 2016. Unctad is also forecasting a decline in FDI in 2016, if crossborder M&A does not stay at its 2015 peak levels.Looking at the 2017-20 period, we expect greenfield FDI to slowly recover with annual growth of 3%

to 5% per annum over this period.

THE fDi REPORT 20164

Key trends in 2015 include:

? While the number of FDI projects into Asia-Pacific decreased by

7%, the total capital investment increased by 29% to $320.5bn

? India replaced China as leading recipient of capital investment

in Asia-Pacific with announced FDI of $63bn, as well as an 8%

increase in project numbers to 697

? China suffered a 23% decline in capital investment and a 16%

drop in FDI projects

? FDI into Indonesia by capital investment increased by 130% to

$38.5bn as a result of multiple metals, chemicals and coal, oil and

natural gas projects

? Pakistan increased its capital investment figure by 147% to

$18.9bn backed by energy-related major investments, including

Rostec’s plans to invest in a $2.5bn gas pipeline

? The top three countries for capital investment, namely India,

China and Indonesia, accounted for almost half (49%) of FDI in

the region

? The total number of FDI projects out of Asia-Pacific decreased

by 1% to 2802, which was offset by a 13% increase in capital

investment

? Outward capital investment from China decreased by 10%, while

project numbers increased by 7% to 486Asia-Pacific

ASIA -PACIFIC INBOUND INVESTMENT

FDI INTO ASIA -PACIFIC BY PROJECT NUMBERS IN 2015Table 1Country Projects 2015% change China 789-16%India 6978%Singapore 355-13%Australia 288-19%Vietnam 224-8%Philippines 16816%Indonesia 1666%Malaysia 159-15%Thailand 1597%Japan 153-22%Other 725-4%Total 3883-7%Source: fDi Markets Note: Percentages rounded up/down $18.9bn Pakistan increased its capital investment figure by 147% to $18.9bn backed by energy-related major investments, including Rostec’s plans to invest in a $2.5bn gas pipeline Graph 1Capital investment FDI INTO ASIA -PACIFIC IN 2015Source: fDi Markets

Note: Includes estimates; percentages rounded up/down Capital investment ($bn)% Asia-Pacific market share 20% India 63.0 18% China 56.6 12% Indonesia 38.5 7% Vietnam 21.1 6% Pakistan 18.9 5% Australia 15.2 4% Malaysia 13.4 3% Myanmar 10.8 3% South Korea 8.9 3% Philippines 8.5

20% Other

65.6

THE fDi REPORT 2016 ASIA-PACIFIC OUTBOUND INVESTMENT

5

FDI OUT OF ASIA-PACIFIC BY CAPITAL INVESTMENT ($BN) IN 2015

Table 2

Country Capital investment

2015 ($bn) China59.0 Japan53.5 Singapore26.3 South Korea25.7 Taiwan18.5 Hong Kong17.5 India14.7 Thailand13.9 Australia8.9 Malaysia7.9 Other9.9 Total255.7 Source: fDi Markets Note: Includes estimates FDI OUT OF ASIA-PACIFIC BY

PROJECT NUMBERS IN 2015

Table 3

Country Projects 2015

Japan853

China486

India302

Australia208

Singapore197

South Korea194

Hong Kong156

Taiwan146

Thailand76

Malaysia68

Other116

Total2802

Source: fDi Markets

Recent major projects

UK-based Lightsource Renewable

Energy plans to design, install and

manage three gigawatts of solar

photovoltaic infrastructure in India.

The company will invest $3.04bn over

five years and will work in partnership

with several India-based companies.

Sokolov-Sarbai Mining Production

Association, part of Luxembourg-

based Eurasian Resources Group,

plans to build a new hot briquetted

iron plant in Kazakhstan. The company

will partner with MCC Baosteel in the

$1.2bn project, which is expected to

create 550 jobs.

Huchems Fine Chemical, a

subsidiary of South Korea-based

Taekwang Industrial, has launched

the construction of a $1bn complex in

Tanjung Kidurong, Malaysia. The facility

is scheduled to open in 2019 and will

create 400 jobs.

S-Oil, a subsidiary of Saudi

Arabia-based Saudi Aramco,

plans to establish a new petrochemical

complex in Ulsan, South Korea. The

$4.1bn project will develop new

residue enhancement and olefin

production facilities in the Onsan

Industrial Complex.

India replaced

China as leading

recipient of capital

investment in

Asia-Pacific with

announced FDI

of $63bn

KEY TRENDS IN 2015

FDI by capital investment in Myanmar increased to $10.8bn with three major investments each valued at $1.6bn or above

Malaysia-based companies invested

in 68 projects globally, representing an

increase of 28% in project numbers Capital investment in

China declined 23%,

to $56.6bn

$10.8bn

23%

28%

THE fDi REPORT 20166

In 2015, India replaced China as the leading destination for

FDI projects in the Asia-Pacific region with $63bn of announced

inward capital investment across the year, accounting for 53% of

FDI into China and India collectively.

India, unlike China, has experienced growth in both project

numbers and capital investment for the past two years. China

managed nominal growth (2%) in 2013 but between 2011

and 2015 this was the only year it was achieved. In 2015, a 23%

decline in capital investment has mirrored the 16% decline in

projects destined for the country. India, on the other hand, had a

turbulent five years but achieved growth in both 2014 and 2015

for capital investment and project numbers, bolstering its position

and allowing it to overtake China.

Of the top 10 destination states for FDI in 2015, India claims

five places, with the top place going to Gujarat, which attracted

$12.4bn and claimed 10% of all capital investment into both

countries. In 2011, Gujarat was ranked the 14th most popular

state for FDI within the two countries.

Maharashtra in western India has been one of the strongest

performers across the years and it has continued to close the gap

on the top Chinese destination, Shanghai Municipality, with the

locations attracting $8.3bn and $10.6bn, respectively, in 2015.

According to fDi Markets, the motives cited by companies

investing in the two countries are quite similar in nature. For both

countries, companies identify domestic market growth potential

and proximity to markets as the main two reasons for investing. In focus: India overtakes China SPECIAL FEATURE: INDIA VERSUS CHINA FDI INTO CHINESE AND INDIAN STATES BY CAPITAL INVESTMENT ($BN)Table 1Destination state 20112012201320142015Gujarat (India) 3.77 2.780.82 2.0112.36Shanghai Municipality (China)12.6914.7310.659.6910.57Jiangsu (China)14.218.1110.1811.249.53Maharashtra (India) 6.58 6.86 6.73 6.588.28Andhra Pradesh (India) 4.07 1.99 1.95 2.42 6.10Karnataka (India) 5.58 3.07 2.86 3.05 4.98Guangdong (China)7.68 5.168.13 3.96 4.49Anhui (China) 1.890.92 1.90 1.38 4.03Tianjin Municipality (China) 2.28 2.37 2.46 5.95 3.27Jharkhand (India)0.000.030.200.00 3.20Other 92.1163.8163.3655.4656.23Total 150.86109.82109.25101.75123.05Source: fDi Markets Note: Includes estimates India, unlike China, has experienced growth in both project numbers and capital investment for the past two years $12.4bn Of the top 10 destination states for FDI in 2015, India claims five places, with the top place going to Gujarat, which attracted $12.4bn

Source: fDi Markets Note: Includes estimates Graph 1FDI INTO CHINA AND INDIA BY CAPITAL INVESTMENT ($BN)20112012201320142015120100806040200China

India

“FDI into India has increased by 40%, thus

displaying the increasing international

confidence in India,” Narendra Modi, the

country’s prime minister, stated in a speech at London’s Wembley Stadium amid

60,000 cheering Indians in November 2015.

Factors such as the lack of progressive FDI reforms, retrospective taxation, excessive permit requisites, centre-state political stalemates, inflexible labour markets, land acquisition issues and inade-quate infrastructure hindered large-scale FDI into

THE fDi REPORT 2016 8

Europe

EUROPE INBOUND INVESTMENT

Key trends in 2015 include:

? FDI into Europe by project numbers fell by nearly 9% in 2015,

following on from a decline in 2014

? The UK and Ireland both witnessed increases in FDI, with project numbers rising 3% and 4%, respectively

? FDI into Finland by project numbers rose by 23% in 2015,

reaching 127 announced projects

? The Czech Republic experienced an increase in FDI across

project numbers (33%), capital investment (54%) and jobs (36%)

? The number of recorded projects in France and Spain continued

to decline in 2015, falling 1% and 19%, respectively. However, the

amount of capital invested in the countries has increased by a

respective 24% and 13%

? Turkey gained momentum in 2015 with project numbers rising

47% to 147 and capital investment reaching $5.8bn

? Capital investment in Serbia almost doubled to $4.4bn following

a United Ara

b Emirates-based real estate investor committing to

jointly invest $3bn in the country

? Despite Europe declining as a source of FDI projects, capital

investment from the region increased 7% to $258.5bn

? Companies from the UK, Germany and France collectively

account for more than 50% of FDI projects from the region

FDI INTO EUROPE BY PROJECT NUMBERS 2015

Table 1

Country Projects 2015% change

UK9743%

Germany364-54%

France356-1%

Spain227-19%

Belgium19240%

Poland1884%

Russia17933%

Ireland1784%

Netherlands166-2%

Turkey14747%

Other1078-8%

Total4049-9%

Source: fDi Markets Note: Percentages rounded up/down

Graph 1

Source: fDi Markets

Note: Includes estimates; percentages

rounded up/down

Capital

investment ($bn)

% Europe

market share

34% UK 53.3

7% Russia 11.6

7% Spain 10.4

5% France 7.1

4% Germany 6.8

4% Netherlands 5.8

4% Turkey 5.8

4% Ireland 5.5

3% Poland 5.3

3% Serbia 4.4

26% Other 40.5

Capital investment

FDI INTO EUROPE IN 2015

$4.4bn

Capital investment in Serbia almost doubled to

$4.4bn following a United Arab Emirates-based

real estate investor committing to jointly invest

$3bn in the country