Megatrends-2010-VisionMobile-(Rutberg-version)
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.
VisionMobile Research
Mobile Megatrends 2010
knowledge. passion. innovation
slides available at:
Knowledge. Passion. Innovation.
Mobile Megatrends 2010
Andreas Constantinou, Ph.D.
Research Director,
VisionMobile
follow me on twitter: @andreascon Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License (https://www.360docs.net/doc/1c2602270.html,/licenses/by/3.0)
Distiling market noise into market sense
Analysis + Mapping + Strategy
Market maps
:visual maps of who's who in the mobile industry
Active Idle Screen Who will own the screen?
Mobile Operating Systems: The New Generation
GPLv2 vs GPLv3White Paper
Mobile Megatrends
Business Intelligence
competitive analysis, market trends, under the radar sectors
Strategy definition
strategy design, ecosystem positioning, product definition
Mobile Industry Atlas 1,100+ companies, 70 sectors (Nov 09 update)
100 million club tracking successful businesses in mobile
for more info:
https://www.360docs.net/doc/1c2602270.html,/blog 2,300+ subscribers
90% mobile industry insiders
Thought leaders:
we coined industry terms like on-device portals, active idle screens, customised design manufacturers and introduced new strategy tools:
mobile industry evolution
centres of gravity
Trusted by industry brands Clients
selected
VisionMobile clients
Vertical propositions
a one-way street or a quick detour?
Software monetisation
Why software firms need to reinvent the
way they monetise
Web operating systems
future paradigm for building phones or fad?
Open is the new closed
open source licenses converge;
governance models diverge
OEM monetisation
services, products or distribution?
Operator futures
services or matchmaking? Mobile Megatrends 2010
adapted for the Rutberg Wireless Influencers conference
1
Vertical propositions:
a one-way street or a quick detour?
Horizontal industry structure
Vertical industry structure
integrated components proprietary interfaces high barriers to entry all or nothing
emphasis:
performance, functionality
modular components standardised interfaces low barriers to entry mix and match
emphasis:
price, flexibility,
customisation, convenience
Vertical propositions in perspective
The Double Helix: industries move between horizontal to vertical structures
Horizontal industry structure
Vertical industry structure
1985
the mobile industry
was born here
1999
first MVNOs
appear
2003
IT operations
outsourced
2005
basestation
sharing
2004end of walled gardens 2009
open to social networks
open network APIs
2008service delivery opens up to s/w developers
2011
operators as micropayment
providers
2010
outsourced
sub-brands
1990-8
standardisation of radio
and SIM interfaces
Evolution of the network business
from vertical to horizontal
2008
convergence of operator fixed + mobile assets
Horizontal industry structure
Vertical industry structure
1985
the mobile industry
was born here
1999
first ODMs
appear
2003
outsourced
operating systems
2007
open source browsers and operating systems
2007-8
Nokia Ovi
service shopping spree
2005
manufacturing for 1 in 3
phones outsourced
2002
Club Nokia
2009
OEM app stores OEM sync services
2002
first MNO
customised devices
2008-9
RIM, Apple:
complete service+device propositions
Evolution of the handset OEM business
from vertical to horizontal and back
1990-8
standardisation of radio
and SIM interfaces
Network operators:
50 years/cycle
slow-moving
rigid Handset OEMs: 25 years/cycle agile
fragile
Clockspeeds differ
Handset OEMs move 2x as fast as network operators
Horizontal player structure Vertical player structure tier-1
operators
tier-2/3
operators
handset OEMs
chipset
OEMS
Vertical propositions: where are we today? players are at different stages towards verticalisation or horizontalisation
1985
the mobile industry
was born here
1999
first MVNOs
and ODMs
appear
2005
MNO
basestation
sharing
2004
decline of walled
gardens
2009
MNOs open to social networks
open network APIs
2008
MNO service
delivery opens
up to s/w
developers
1990-8
standardisation of radio
and SIM interfaces 2007
open source
OEM browsers and
operating systems
2005
manufacturing
for 1 in 3 phones
outsourced
Services
Service delivery Service distribution Device design UI design Core apps Operating system Hardware platform Chipset IP Manufacturing
software developers
services vendors
Centres of Gravity are being formed
by integrating all value layers under one roof and creating thriving ecosystems around them
Components
Apple Nokia RIM HTC Google Qualcomm Intel
Services Service delivery Service distribution Device design UI design Core apps App environment Operating system Hardware platform Chipset IP Manufacturing
Centres of Gravity
moving to capture value across the stack
Takeaways
- Operators/carriers are moving at half the clockspeed of handset OEMs - T1 OEMs and chipset vendors are becoming centres of gravity
- Vertical integration is a 20-year cyclic trend, not a detour
Open questions
- Where will Apple make money in 5 years?
(applications, services or hardware?)
- Does vertical integration imply greater profits?
(Clayton Christensen: biggest profits are at the points of proprietary integration)
- Are chipset vendors tomorrows handset makers?
(will OEMs drive marketing on top of chipsets, in the same way that MVNOs add on top of MNOs?)
2
Software monetisation
Why software firms need to reinvent the way they monetise
post-sales
value created at point of sale
and during in-life use
pre-load
value created before the handset is shipped
cloud
value created in the cloud
device
value created Introducing Value Quadrants
the
where
of value creation
the when of value creation
post-sales
value created at point of sale
and during in-life use
pre-load
value created before the handset is shipped
Unique value in each quadrant
- software IP & services - hardware IP
- integration services - industrial design
- content dev. tools - service design tools - developer tools
- OEM production tools
- voice & msg services - VAS and SDPs - advertising
- content & app stores
- service distribution - inventory leasing - on-device analytics - device management
Value
Value
Value
Value
.. distinct value areas
c l o u d
e v i c e
post-sales
pre-load c l o u d
..and unique revenue models
- software IP & services - hardware IP
- integration services - industrial design
- content dev. tools - service design tools - developer tools
- OEM production tools
- voice & msg services - VAS and SDPs - advertising
- content & app stores
- service distribution - inventory leasing - on-device analytics - device management
Value
Value Value
Value
Revenue models
Revenue models - per activation/install - per week
- per unit/user segment - per update
Revenue models - per unit
- per platform - per model - per site
Revenue models - per usage
- per active user - CPA/CPC/CPM - revenue share
- per developer seat - per module - per site
.. with distinct revenue models
e v i c e
post-sales
pre-load
c l o u d
The evolution of revenue models
- software IP & services - hardware IP - systemware - industrial design
- content dev. tools - service design tools - developer tools
- OEM production tools
- VAS and SDPs - advertising
- content & app stores - network capabilities
- service distribution - inventory leasing - on-device analytics - service management
Value
Value Value
Value
Revenue models
Revenue models - per activation/install - per week
- per unit/user segment - per update
Revenue models - per unit
- per platform
- per model/design - per site
Revenue models - per active user - CPA/CPC/CPM - revenue share
- per segment/reach
- per developer seat - per module - per site
e v i c e
from horizontal royalties to vertical productisation
long term evolution:
from services to distribution
from downstream-only to upstream monetisation
from hardware to services revenues from pre-load royalties to post-sales activation
untapped value in modular design tools
Takeaways
- pre-load value moving from software IP to systemware & productisation - services value: from downstream to upstream; and from services to
distribution
- post-sales value: inventory leasing, analytics, service distribution and service management
Key questions
- what % of device value will be in software vs systemware in 2015?
(software = platform royalties, systemware = productised software+hardware)
- what % of MNO revenues will come from upstream/downstream in 2015?
(downstream=end-users, upstream = media publishers, app developers, advertisers)