经济学人
Got a light? 经济复苏已被点燃？
Mar 12th 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work 中国庞大的财政措施可能已经起效
“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chine se proverb. With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country need s to do its bit to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to r un a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners t o do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that i t plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infras tructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?
中国有句民谚：“众人拾柴火焰高。”随着世界经济陷入70年以来的最大危机，要重燃全球需求之火，各国都责无旁贷。美国政府计划今年运行占国内生产总值12%的财政赤字，并号召二十国集团的伙伴们作出
更多行动。中国是其中的吝啬鬼吗？它在上周公布的预算显示，中国计划运行的财政赤字只占GDP的3%。难道去年十一月公布的4亿元用于基础设施建设的措施——相当于GDP的14%——仅仅是在忽悠？
Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the big gest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the si ze of China’s as a sha re of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; America started this year with a much bigger deficit. America’s deficit will increase by more th an China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depre ss tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget d eficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle.
北京的刺激计划小于去年公布的数字，但这依然是世界范围内最大的经济刺激方案。尽管美国运行的财政赤字是中国的四倍，但这并不意味着它的需求性刺激计划就更大。美国从今年开始就保持了巨大的财政赤字，并且年内赤字增长将高于中国。这主要是因为美国遭受的经济衰退极大地减少了税收。财政刺激方案的正确措施应该是调整财政赤字以适应经济圈的冲击。
In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some publi c-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks. Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, ta x cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a sti mulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009. Adding in bank-finance d infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP.
然而在中国，经济赤字掩盖了真实的刺激方案，因为一些公共基础设施投资是由银行提供资金、国有公司或地方政府实施的。瑞银的陶旺（音）预计，新的基础设施建设、减税、消费补贴以及医疗方面的投资增长将构成总额占到GDP3%的09年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由银行提供资金支持的基建支出，整个刺激方案将占到GDP的4%。
Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. China has been much criticised for focu sing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short ter m this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand.
中国在铁路、公路和电网方面的投资已经大规模展开。今年头两个月内，固定投资总额较去年同期增长3 0%，铁路投资增长了3倍。很多批评认为，中国的刺激方案集中于投资而不是消费，但就短期来看，在中国这是提高国内需求最立竿见影的方式。
What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Si nce the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as Am erica’s Federal Reserve has. New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China h as not done enough to boost demand. But this is not true deflation, where falling price s are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit. Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year. The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rat es, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending. China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch—t hough some of the lending is of the state-directed sort.
那么作为提高国内消费另一手段的货币政策又运用的怎样？从去年年初开始，中国已经将利率砍到美联储的一半。新的统计数字显示，到二月，消费品价格较去年下降了1.6%，从而带来了第一轮通货紧缩。这似乎意味着中国在提高需求方面做的尚且不够。但其实，这并不是真正的通货紧缩。真正的通缩情况下，货币供应和信贷会随着物价下降而萎缩。去年，银行借贷增长了24%。对银根放松的正确估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借贷产生。中国作为世界上少有的几个国家，其借贷规模在全球信贷危机爆发后不降反升——尽管部分借贷是在国家指导下进行的。
China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing. By allowing t he yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.
中国不仅完成了规模可观的财政和银根放松计划，还通过让人民币在过去12个月内升值18%（贸易加权考虑在内），部分促进了世界货币经济增长。
The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-t han-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further. The 12-month ra te of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%. But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand. As well as the increases in investment and bank le nding, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the gove rnment has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fis cal boost.
真正的问题是：中国的贸易刺激方案数量是否已经够大？到今年二月，年出口额下降远超预期，达26%，并且可能继续下挫。工业生产12个月增幅在09年头两个月已将至3.8%，零售业增长放缓至15%。但是仍然有一些国内需求复苏的暂时性指标。除了投资和银行贷款增长外，汽车销售和电力消费同样得到提振。野村证券的孙明春（音）认为，经济刺激方案能够实现8%的年度经济增长。但是政府已经明确表示，如果经济持续疲软，将会提供另外的财政提振方案。
Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot kee p the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed. The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urge nt. Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending o n health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving—all the more reason to speed up such policies. If not, even China’s fire could burn out.
这些注入或许可以把今年的经济增长拉回到8%，但如果全球需求持续悲观，增速便难以维持。对于中国而言，出口转内销的需要已经更加紧迫。中国官员正确地表示，将会用数年时间增量投资公共卫生和社保体系以降低居民存款，使得这些政策的加速实施更加名正言顺。否则，即便是中国的经济火焰也会被扑灭。
Electric vehicles
Batteries Now Included
电池驱动的汽车不再是昂贵的梦想
Mar 12th 2009
From The Economist print edition
The missing piece of the electric-car jigsaw has just turned up
电动汽车研究的瓶颈被突破
IF YOU want to buy an electric car, you can. Tesla Motors, a firm based in San Carlos, California, will sell you a nifty open-top sports job for $109,000. Not cheap, admittedly, but cheap to run. Plugged in overnight, it can be refuelled for the equivalent of 25 cents a litre of petrol. The catc h is, “plugged in overnight”. Tesla’s veh icles use standard lithium-ion battery cells. As any owner of a mobile phone or laptop computer knows, these take time to charge. If you use 6,831 of the m, as a Tesla sports car does, that time does tend to drag on. Which is fine if you are not plan ning a long trip the following day, for a full charge will take you about 350km (220 miles). But it might cramp the style of anyone planning to bomb down from, say, Paris to Cannes, and who would therefore need to refuel on the way.
如果你想要买一辆电动汽车，你可以做到。Tesla Motor，一家来自加利福尼亚州圣卡洛斯的汽车公司，将会以10.9万美元卖给你一辆灵巧的敞篷跑车。说实话，这不便宜，但是它跑起来很省钱。在插座上充电一晚上它就能充满，相当于购买25美分一公升的汽油。他们的口号是“隔夜就充满”。Tesla Motor公司的汽车使用标准锂离子电池。就像任何一个使用过手机和笔记本电脑的用户所知道的一样，电池充电需要时间。如果你使用6831个这样的锂电池，就像Tesla跑车一样，那么充电时间就得拖得更长。如果你不是计划明天进行长途旅行，那么没问题，充满的能量可以够你跑上350公里（220英里），但是如果你是个飙车狂，比如从巴黎一路飙到戛纳，你就没那么顺利了，你需要在半路上重新充电。【译注：速度越快，电池的电流就越大，电流效率就会降低】
Gerbrand Ceder and Byoungwoo Kang of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology hope to chang e this, and thus help make the electric car a work-a-day consumer item, rather than a high-end boy’s toy. In this week’s Nature they have published the technical details of a new battery materi al that will, if all goes well, take the waiting out of wanting, at least when it comes to rechargin g.
来自麻省理工的割不烂的塞德（Gerbrand Ceder）和鼻痒糊糠（Byoungwoo Kang）希望改变这一点，使电动汽车从此成为全天汽车使用者的座驾，而不再是高级玩具。在本周的《自然》杂志上，他们公布了一种新电池材料的技术细节。如果一切顺利的话，它将至少在充电方面做到立等可取。
Broadly speaking, there are two ways of storing electrical energy in a chemical system. One is a standard battery, in which the whole material of the electrodes acts as a storage medium. That a llows lots of energy to be squirrelled away, but makes it relatively hard to get at—and so it can be released or put back in only slowly. The other way is called a supercapacitor. This stores ener gy only at the surface of the electrode. It is quick to charge and discharge, but cannot hold muc h energy. The great prize in the battery world has thus been a material that can both store a lot and discharge rapidly, and it is this that Dr Ceder and Mr Kang think they have come up with.
一般来说，一个化学体系有两种方式储存电能。一种是标准电池，即整个电极材料都是储存媒介，它可以储存大量的能量，但是相对来说，充电放电要难一些，因此充电放电只能缓慢地进行。另一种是超级电容器，它只能在电极表面储存电能，它充电放电都很快，但是能储存的电能不多。因此如果还有这样一种材料，它既能快速的充放电，又能储存很多能量，那么无疑将成为电池世界中的大哥大。而这就是塞德博士
和糠先生认为他们的材料所具备的。
Nanogobstoppers “纳米小糖块”
Lithium-ion batteries, as their name suggests, work by the movement of lithium ions (which carry a positive electric charge) along with electrons (which carry a negative charge). Electrons are sm all and mobile but lithium ions are much larger and slower. In a standard lithium-ion battery one electrode is made from a material such as lithium iron phosphate and the other from graphite. Th e ions pass from the graphite to the phosphate through an intervening electrolyte while the electr ons make the journey via an external circuit that allows them to do useful work. When the batter y is recharged, they go in the opposite direction. (See videographic on how a lithium-ion battery works.)
顾名思义，锂离子电池的工作原理是基于锂离子（带一个正电荷）和电子（带一个负电荷）一起运动。电子很小，移动很快，而锂离子更大，运动更慢。在一个标准锂离子电池中，一个电极【译注：正极】是用一种锂铁磷酸盐的材料做的，另一个【译注：负极】则是用石墨做的。锂离子穿过电解质的阻碍，从石墨电极移动到磷酸盐电极；与此同时，电子们穿过一个外部电路做功。当电池在充电的时候，它们则去相反的目的地。(https://www.360docs.net/doc/c25242532.html,/videographics）查看录像了解一个锂离子电池怎样工作的
It is the speed with which the ions can enter and leave the electrodes that governs how fast a b attery can be charged and discharged. Graphite has an open structure and is easily penetrated. H owever, in the case of lithium iron phosphate and other, similar, materials, the crystal structure al lows entrance and egress in only one direction. That creates a traffic jam that slows the moveme nt of ions down.
离子进入和离开电极的速度影响到一个电池充电和放电有多快。石墨拥有一个开放的结构，很容易被穿过，然而，问题是锂铁磷酸盐以及其他类似的材料都是晶体结构，它只允许离子从一个方向进出。这会导致交通拥堵，从而离子的运动就被减慢了。
What Dr Ceder and Mr Kang have done is create electrodes that are made of two different mater ials, one of which is good at storing ions while the other is good at conducting them. The two s ubstances themselves are arranged in tiny spheres less than 50 billionths of a metre across. The core of each sphere is a crystal of lithium iron phosphate. This acts as a standard battery materi al. The surface, however, is made of a glassy (ie, non-crystalline) form of lithium phosphate. This lithium-phosphate glass is good at conducting lithium ions, though it cannot actually store many. It thus acts as a supercapacitor. The result is that any ion arriving at a sphere is quickly conduc ted around the surface by the supercapacitor phase until it finds its way to the right place to ent er the battery phase in the core—or, if the battery in question is being charged, the other way r ound.
塞德博士和糠先生的工作就是制造一个由两种不同材料组成的复合电极，一个具有强大的储存离子能力，另一个具有快速运输的能力。这两种物质本身排列在一个狭小的球内（直径大约1/5000000000米），每个球的核心都是锂铁磷酸盐晶体，它和标准锂电池的材料的工作原理是一样的。球的表面则是由玻璃体（非
晶体）的锂磷酸盐所制成，这种锂磷酸盐玻璃体能很好的传输锂离子，尽管它不能储存多少电荷。锂磷酸盐玻璃体扮演了超级电容器的角色。其结果是，任何到达这个球体的离子都会先通过超级电容器部分在球体表面快速运动，直到它找到前往该去位置的路径并进入这个核心的电池部分。反之，如果这个电池在充电，一切则按相反方向进行。
The really clever bit, though, is how the spheres are made. They crystallise from a melt that doe s not have enough iron in it to become pure lithium iron phosphate, so eventually no more of th at material can form as the melt cools down. From then on the growing sphere is just lithium ph osphate and, by manipulating the conditions, the researchers were able to make the coating glass y rather than crystalline.
尽管如此，真正需要依靠点聪明的地方，是怎样制作这些小球。小球由含铁不足的熔融盐结晶而成，不会产生纯的锂铁磷酸盐，因此随着熔融盐最终冷却，锂铁磷酸盐不再会产生。接下来在生长的球体就只有锂磷酸盐了。再通过条件控制，研究者们就可以给球体穿上一层玻璃体（而非晶体）的外衣。
The result is a material that, when tested in experimental batteries, was able to charge and disch arge in a few seconds. In the future, therefore, that weekend in the south of France need not b e interrupted by running out of juice.
结果是，这样的材料在电池测试中能够在几秒钟内充放电。因此，在未来，周末在法国南部的开车旅行再也不会因为没有汽油而被打断了。
World economy
The jobs crisis 世界陷入失业危机
Mar 12th 2009
From The Economist print edition
It’s coming, whatever governments do; but they can make it better or worse
不论政府如何努力，失业危机已经到来。不过政府可以在这场危机中起到关键作用
Illustration by Belle Mellor
NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than t he photographs of the Depression. You can see it in the drawn fa ces of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes. Their desp air spawned political extremism that left a stain on society; but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work. T hanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longe r plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.再没有什么比关于经济大萧条的照片更能让人体会大量失业的痛苦。这种痛苦显见于人们紧绷的面容，褴褛的衣衫，还有他们的眼神。由人们的绝望所引发的政治极端主义给社会留下污点；失业问题也使后人懂得公共政策在减轻失业痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利计划和失业救济金方案都发轫于那些灰暗的失业时期；受惠于这些计划，至少发达国家的人们不再因为失业而陷入穷困。
Not even the gloomiest predict that today’s slump will approach t he severity of the Depression, which shrank America’s economy b y more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age pop ulation out of a job. But with the world in its deepest recession s ince the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 8 0 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, a nd raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do?
即使是最悲观的预计都不认为眼下的衰退会接近大萧条的程度，后者使美国经济缩水四分之一，四分之一的就业人口失去工作。但随着世界经济出现自1930年代以来的最大幅度衰退以及全球贸易80年来的最快速萎缩，大规模失业的恶魇再度凸显，并且抛出了和大萧条时期一样的大问题：政府应该做些什么？
Join the queue 世界各国难以幸免
In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where t he recession began. Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m job s since the downturn began in December 2007, including more th an 600,000 in each of the past three months. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-centu ry. An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago. That is especially worrying when the finances of ma ny households have come to depend on two full incomes.
富裕国家的失业问题在衰退肇始的美国最为显著。自从07年12月经济陷入低迷以来，美国灵活的劳动力市场已经溢出了440万份失业，其中在过去三个月内每月产生了60万份。二月的失业率跃升至8.1%，是25年来的最高数字。比起有纪录的半个世纪内的任何时期，眼下失业的美国人更难再找到一份工作。特别是当很多家庭的财政依靠双职工收入的时候，这种情况尤其令人堪忧。
But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far bey ond America and Britain. In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies. Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japan’s army of temporary workers are exposing t he unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalita rian society.
然而显而易见的是，失业问题的沉重打击远不止于美国和英国。日本的生产量比其他富裕经济体下降得更快。尽管失业率尚低，但临时工当中快速增长的失业大军显示了“双层劳工市场”的不公平性，加剧了一个平等社会中的紧张。
In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only be gun to edge up elsewhere. The unemployment rates in many Eur opean countries are below America’s, but that may be because th eir more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling dema nd. Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody do ubts that worse lies ahead. By the end of 2010, unemployment i n much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.
在欧洲，建筑业热潮遭遇重创的西班牙和爱尔兰等国失业速度增长最快，而在其他地方则初现端倪。很多欧洲国家的失业率都低于美国，但也许这只是因为它们
有更加严格的劳工市场，从而对下降的市场需求适应更慢。面对着快速萎缩的欧洲经济，没有人会怀疑更糟糕的就业局面就在眼前。到2010年底，多数富裕国家的失业率可能会超过10%。
In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outco me more painful. As trade shrinks, millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain. Po verty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to th e land. The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below t he level of extreme poverty this year.
发展中国家的情况就不一样了，只不过结果会更人头疼。随着贸易萎缩，数以百万计的工人正失去他们在全球供应链条底端的立锥之地。他们转向非正式工作或者回到农村，伴随而来的是贫困问题的抬头。世界银行预计，今年将有约5300万人降到极端贫困线以下。
Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help. That’s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swin g back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars t o the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amoun ts of money into saving jobs. But help cannot be measured in do llars alone. Badly designed policies can be self-defeating. After th e recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europe’s rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.
政治上，政府必须全力介入进行援助。这一方面是因为多年以来资本在利润中占去了很大份额，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因为给了银行万亿计美元的当政者们承担着巨大的压力，需要大量注资来挽救就业岗位。然而挽救不能仅以美元来衡量。错误的决策反倒会弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的经济衰退以来，欧洲缺乏灵活度的劳动力市场就使失业率几十年来居高不下。
Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers. In A merica, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus package. Japan is giving social assistance to “no n regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored. In gener al, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep peo ple in work than to subsidise unemployment. Many countries are
topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave.
各国政府正为劳动者提供大量的短期援助。美国的社会保障体系在富裕国家中处于最低，而最近出台的经济刺激计划中，扩大失业救济金惠及面恰恰是计划中的一部分。日本为长期以来受忽视的“非固定”劳动者群体提供社会援助。不过总的来说，比起失业补助，资助企业以留住员工才是明智之举。很多国家通过缩短每周工作日或强制休假来满足劳工薪资。
These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited; fo r, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sus tain demand. But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-live d. Even if the recession ends soon (and there is little sign of tha t happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that le d to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many yea rs to come. Moreover, many of yesterday’s jobs, from Spanish br icklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back. People will h ave to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.
这些措施在一定时限内是合理的：因为在短期内，政府需要尽全力维持需求。只是哎呀，就业危机不大可能只在短期内存在。即便经济衰退很快结束（而且几乎不可能发生），引起这场危机的阴云——资金短缺和过度借贷——将在接下来继续笼罩世界经济长达数年。更有甚者，不论是西班牙的砌砖匠还是华尔街的交易员，很多昔日的就业岗位会一去不复返。人们将被迫告别现有职位，转行进入新岗位。
A difficult dance 艰难的舞步
Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U-turn; for, in the long term, they need flexible la bour markets. That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers’ privileges and making it easier f or businesses to restructure by laying people off. Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporar y workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk wi th many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire.
在接下来的几年中，政治家们不得不做出一个180度的艰难政策转变：因为从长远来看，他们需要一个灵活的劳动力市场。这意味着废除工作补贴计划，去除受保护劳工的特权，以及帮助企业更方便地裁员从而进行重组。像日本这样具有双层劳动力结构的国家，大量埋头苦干的临时劳工缺乏就业保障，而被娇生惯养
的上层员工却能享受到多重保护。这种差别需要通过严格上层员工的裁汰制度加以消除。
The euphemism for that is “flexibility”. The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new ones ca n be created. The programmes that help today, by keeping peopl e in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adj ustment that lies ahead. As time goes by, spending on keeping p eople in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones. Governments will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible. That is going to require fancy political fo otwork; but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth.
这些措施可以委婉地概括为“灵活性”措施。更直白的事实是，现有工作越容易被废弃，新工作就越容易被创造。眼下这些保住人们饭碗的援助计划会在今后成为调整适应今后形势的拖累。随着时间推移，用在保留人员旧岗位的指出需要削减，取而代之的是为新岗位培养劳动者的开支。各国政府需要从支持需求的政策转变为建设一个更灵活的劳动力市场。这种转变需要富有想象力的政治谋划，但确实当政者们必须完成的步骤：因为如果他们不这样做，增长将被遏制。
However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time. At best it will blight million s of lives for years. The politicians’ task is to make sure the mis ery is not measured in decades.
然而，不论政府政策制定的多么完美，失业率在一段时间内仍将陡增。不过充其量它会在几年内让数百万人的生计陷于困境。当政者的任务是不要让这场不幸延续数十年。
World Economy
Hello, girls 你们好，女孩们
Mar 12th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Recession-hit companies target female customers
经济衰退的冲击下，女性消费者成为各公司的新目标
NEVER mind the fight to get people to open their wallets in the recession—some comp anies are taking a different tack, and trying to get customers to open their purses inst ead. In America, where female consumers make more than 80% of discretionary purch ases, companies have started tailoring their products and messages to appeal to wome n, in an effort to boost their sales.
在经济不景气的大环境下，一些公司并没有把注意力放在争取消费者上，而是采取了一种不同的行动方针，试着使消费者自愿的掏钱购买。在美国，女性消费者的购买力在自主购买中占了80%以上的份额，因此一些公司开始量身定制迎合女性的产品和信息以提高他们的销售额。
Frito-Lay, a snack-food company owned by PepsiCo, has launched a campaign called “O nly In A Woman’s World” to convince women that crisps and popcorn are not just for
male, beer-guzzling sport fans. OfficeMax, America’s second-largest office-supplies comp any, has redesigned its notebooks and file-holders to appeal to women and has run ad vertisements that encourage women to make their cubicles more colourful. For the first time, McDonald’s was a sponsor of New York Fashion Week in February, promoting a new line of hot drinks to trendsetting women.
百事旗下的零食生产公司菲力多（Frito-Lay）开展了一场名为“只为女性”的促销活动，该活动旨在使女性相信薯片和爆米花不仅仅适合嗜好啤酒的男性体育迷。美国第二大办公用品供应公司OfficeMax为吸引女性，已经重新设计了他们的笔记本和文件匣，而且发布广告鼓励女性把她们的办公室隔间布置得更加色彩斑斓。麦当劳也首次赞助了纽约二月时装周，向潮女们推出了一系列热饮新品。
Eric Almquist, head of global consumer insights for Bain & Company, a consultancy, sa ys he is surprised it has taken a recession to get companies to focus on women. After all, it is hardly news that they control the vast majority of consumer spending. (They b uy 90% of food, 55% of consumer electronics, and most of the new cars.) But the rec ession has prompted companies to rethink their approach. SheSpeaks, a marketing con sultancy that helps companies including Citibank and Philips reach women consumers, has tripled its number of clients since the recession began. Some wome n’s magazines, too, are benefiting as companies that had never before expressed interest in advertisin g with them are now doing so.
贝恩咨询公司负责全球消费者研究Eric Almquist说，直到经济危机到来各家企业才将注意力集中到女性身上，这让他感到惊讶。毕竟，女性作为大多数消费的主力军并不是什么新鲜事。（她们购买90%的食物，55%的电子消费品，以及大多数的新车。）然而经济危机促使这些公司重新思考他们的营销方式。SheS peaks是一家营销咨询公司，帮助花旗银行和飞利浦在内的企业打动女性消费者。从经济萧条开始到现在，该公司客户数翻了三倍。一些女性杂志也同样获益，因为一些以前从来没有兴趣在女性杂志上刊登广告的公司，现在纷纷与他们合作。
Aside from their greater purchasing clout, women are valuable customers for three reas ons. First, they are loyal, say s Marti Barletta, author of “Marketing to Women”, and mo re likely to continue to buy a brand if they like it. Second, women are more likely than men to spread information about products they like through word of mouth and social -networking sites. Third, most of the lay-offs so far in America have been in male-domi nated fields, like manufacturing and construction. This means women may bring home a greater share of household income in the months ahead and have even more buying power.
除了比男性更大的购买力外，有三个原因使得女性成为更有价值的消费者。第一，她们具有品牌忠诚度，《向女性营销》的作者Marti Barletta认为，女性一旦喜欢一个品牌，就会比男性更倾向于持续购买该商品。第二，女性比男性更乐于通过口口相传或社交网络传播关于她们所喜欢商品的信息。第三，到目前为止，在美国大多数的失业岗位都是男性为主的领域，比如制造业和建筑业。这就意味着，在最近的几个月中，女性收入占家庭收入的份额会更大，乃至会拥有更大的购买力。
But marketing to women may not work for every company. In particular, for firms (suc h as some carmakers) with brands that are regarded as strongly male, “gender bendin g”, or trying to attract the opposite sex, could enhance short-term sales but cause a lo nger-term decline. Jill Avery of the Simmons School of Management in Boston research ed this trend with cars. When Porsche released a sport-utility vehicle designed for wom en, sales temporarily increased, but men started to move away from the brand, on the basis that it had compromised its masculine image. But in this recession, having a tar nished brand is better than having no brand at all.
但是面向女性的营销并不一定适合每家公司。特别是对于某些企业（比如说汽车制造商），它们的品牌被视作很男性，有“性别倾向”或用来吸引异性。面向女性的营销策略会使其销售额在短期内有所增长，但却会引起长远的衰退。波士顿Simmons管理学院的Jill Avery研究了汽车业的这种趋势。当保时捷发布一款专为女性设计的运动型多功能车后，销售额会有暂时增长，但是男性开始不再欣赏这个牌子了，因为它的男子气概被打了折扣。不过在眼前经济衰退期间，有一些销售业绩总比什么都没有要好点。
中美海域争端
Naked aggression 赤裸裸的入侵
Mar 12th 2009 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
With an Impeccable sense of timing
争端时间的考虑真是“无瑕”
A RETIRED Chinese admiral likened the American navy to a man with a criminal rec ord “wandering just outside the gate of a family home”. The Chinese, said America’s national intelligence director, Dennis Blair, had “become more aggressive” in assert ing their maritime claims. Just as the two countries prepare for their presidents to meet, bickering has broken out. It is unclear whether it is over some silly local mus cle-flexing, or a deliberately engineered provocation.
一位中国退休将领把美国海军比作一个有犯罪前科的人“在别人家门口晃悠”。美国国家情报主管丹尼斯·布莱尔（Dennis Blair）则说，中国人在海域争端的声明中“变得更有攻击性了”。这场争吵爆发于两国元首会面的筹备期间。目前尚不清楚这是一场无聊的区域性武力炫耀，还是蓄谋已久的挑衅。
It would all sound familiar to George Bush, who faced a similar spat with China so on after becoming president eight years ago. Then, as now, the argument is about American military activity in China’s vicinity. For Mr Bush, the mid-air collision of a Chinese fighter with an American spy plane in April 2001 became the first foreign-p olicy crisis of his presidency. For President Obama, a stand-off in the South China S ea between an American naval ship and five Chinese vessels is not such an emerge ncy. In 2001, a Chinese pilot died and the 24 members of the spy plane’s crew we re held for 11 days. No one was killed or captured this time.
对小布什来说，这一切并不陌生。八年前当他就职总统不久，就跟中国遭遇了一场类似的口角。和现在一样，当时的争论也是关于美国在中国周边的军事行动。对于布什先生来讲，2 001年4月美国间谍机与中国战斗机的空中相撞成为其总统任期内第一起外交危机事件。而对于奥巴马总统来说，一艘美国海军船与五艘中国船只在南中国海的对峙就没有那么危急了。2001年的事件中，一名中国飞行员死亡，24名间谍机机组成员被扣11天。而这一次，既没有人被杀，也没有人被俘。
It is a reminder, however, that for all the talk of friendship China can still get very prickly. According to the Americans, their unarmed ship Impeccable, under naval su pervision but with a civilian crew, was peacefully surveying the ocean floor in intern ational waters about 120km (75 miles) south of China’s Hainan Island (see map). Fi ve Chinese boats—naval and civilian—approached her on March 8th. Chinese sailors reportedly waved Chinese flags and told the Impeccable to leave. The Impeccable t urned fire-hoses on one boat to stop her getting too close. Chinese sailors stripped to their underwear as their boat closed in. Two of the Chinese boats forced the Im peccable to do an emergency stop, before she eventually withdrew.
然而这次事件仍然提醒人们，中国不只可以坐下来友好谈判，也依然可以当个难对付的刺头。按照美国人的说法，他们的“无瑕号”是一艘没有武装的船舶，尽管属于美国海军监管，但但是船上人员都是平民，事发时正在中国海南岛120公里（75英里）外的国际水域对海底进行和平探测（见地图）。3月8日，五艘中国军事及民用船舶向“无瑕号”靠近。据报道，中国船员挥动中国旗帜要求该船离开。“无瑕号”向一艘船舶使用了消防水管以阻止其靠近，而中国船员在靠近时“无瑕号”时赤裸上阵，脱到只剩下内裤。在两艘中国船迫使下，“无瑕号”一度紧急停船，后来终于从该水域退出。
The Chinese say the Impeccable was on a spy mission. Detecting submarines is ind eed one of her roles, and Hainan is home to Chinese submarine bases. Moreover, s ays China’s foreign ministry, the vessel was in China’s exclusive economic zone. It a ccused the Impeccable of violating international and Chinese law. The Americans sai d it was the Chinese who had broken international law by not respecting the safety of a “lawful” ocean user.
而中国方面则称，“无瑕号”是在执行侦查任务，其中一项就是探测中国潜艇，而海南是中国潜艇基地的大本营。另据中国外交部称，“无瑕号”是在中国专属经济区内活动，并谴责该船只违反了国际法和中国法律。美国人则认为，中国对一个“合法的”海洋利用者的安全不予尊重，才恰恰是对国际法的违反。
Mr Blair said the incident was the most serious since the 2001 affair. According to t he Pentagon, it was the latest in a series of incidents this month involving Chinese harassment of American naval vessels, about which the Pentagon had kept diplomati cally quiet until the latest encounter. Neither country will want to let the quarrel dis rupt the preparations for Mr Obama’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jint ao, in the margins of the G20 summit in London in April. It will be their first face-t o-face meeting, though Mr Obama spoke to the Chinese president by phone soon a fter taking office. China’s foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, on a visit to America to pre pare for the summit this week agreed with his counterpart, Hillary Clinton, that thei r countries should work together to ensure such incidents are avoided. During a visi t to Beijing last month, Mrs Clinton said she did not think it realistic to expect glob al economic rec overy without Chinese and American “co-operation and leadership”.
布莱尔先生认为，这是自2001年以来最严重的一起事件。五角大楼说，这起事件只是本月内中国对美国海军船只一系列干扰事件中的最新一起。直到这次争端发生后，五角大楼才打破了外交上的缄默。任何国家都不希望这场争执扰乱了筹备中的奥巴马先生与胡锦涛的会面；会面将在4月伦敦20国集团峰会的间隙举行。尽管奥巴马先生在就任之后便立即致电中国国家主席，但这次会面是双方首次面谈。中国外交部长杨洁篪本周赴美为峰会做准备时和克林顿·希拉里国务卿达成一致，两国认为应该共同努力避免这类事件。在上月访问北京时，希拉里表示，没有中美两国的“合作和领导”，全球经济复苏将不现实。
Military co-operation is another matter. Talks between the two sides’ armed forces r esumed last month after a five-month suspension imposed by China in protest over American arms sales to Taiwan. American officials remain wary of China’s secretive naval build-up, which is likely to intensify. A Chinese admiral said recently that it was “very necessary” to build an aircraft-carrier—a move that would heighten Ameri can unease. Further close encounters in the western Pacific are inevitable, and coul d always, and quickly, turn nasty.
经济合作是一码事，军事合作又是另一码事。双方间的军事会谈于上个月恢复。此前，因中国抗议美国对台军售，军事会谈中断了五个月。对于中国可能会加紧进行的海军秘密建设，美国的官员们保持警惕。一名中国将领最近表示，中国“非常需要”建造航空母舰。而这一举动会使美国进一步感到不安。西太平洋上进一步的“亲密接触”将不可避免，这种遭遇会持续、迅速地演变为两国争端。
The American presidency美国总统
Learning the hard way 学会硬手腕
Mar 26th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Barack Obama may at last be getting a grip. But he still needs to show more leadership, at home and a broad
关于如何执政，巴拉克·奥巴马最终会想明白的。不过他需要在国内和
国际舞台上更多地展示自己的领导能力。
HILLARY CLINTON’S most effective quip, in her long struggle with Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination last year, was tha t the Oval Office is no place for on-the-job training. It went to th e heart of the nagging worry about the silver-tongued young sen ator from Illinois: that he lacked even the slightest executive exp erience, and that in his brief career he had never really stood up to powerful interests, whether in his home city of Chicago or in the wider world. Might Mrs Clinton have been right about her foe?
在去年与巴拉克·奥巴马竞逐民主党总统候选人的拉锯战中，希拉里·克林顿的杀手锏名言是：白宫椭圆形办公室并非提供在职培训的场所。对于这位伊利诺伊州伶牙俐齿的年轻参议员来说，希拉里的名言一语道破人们唠叨不休的担忧之所在：奥巴马连一丁点执政经验都没有，在其短暂的从政生涯中也从未对抗过强大的利益集团（无论是在他的芝加哥老家还是更广阔的天地里）。现在，克林顿太太的话莫非一语成谶？
Not altogether. In foreign policy in particular Mr Obama has alrea dy done some commendable things. He has held out a sincere ha nd to Iran; he has ordered Guantánamo closed within a year; he has set himself firmly against torture. He has, as the world and this newspaper wanted, taken a less strident tone in dealing with friends and rivals alike.
希拉里的话并不全对。尤其是在外交政策上，奥巴马先生已经有了一些值得赞扬的作为。他向伊朗伸出真诚的橄榄枝，下令在一年内关闭关塔那摩基地，还
表示坚决反对虐囚行为。正如世界和本刊所期待的那样，奥巴马先生用更柔和的语气来跟美国的朋友和对手们打交道。
But at home Mr Obama has had a difficult start. His performance has been weaker than those who endorsed his candidacy, includi ng this newspaper, had hoped. Many of his strongest supporters —liberal columnists, prominent donors, Democratic Party stalwarts —have started to question him. As for those not so beholden, pol ls show that independent voters again prefer Republicans to Dem ocrats, a startling reversal of fortune in just a few weeks. Mr Ob ama’s once-celestial approval ratings are about where George Bu sh’s were at this stage in his awful presidency. Despite his resou nding electoral victory, his solid majorities in both chambers of C ongress and the obvious goodwill of the bulk of the electorate, M r Obama has seemed curiously feeble.
但在国内问题上，奥巴马先生开局不利。他的表现逊于此前认可者（包括本刊在内）的期待。自由专栏作家，知名捐助人，民主党忠实成员——在这些最强烈的奥巴马支持者中，很多人已经开始对他提出质疑。再看看那些不那么迷恋奥巴马的人：民意测验显示，独立选民的偏好在数周内惊人逆转，从民主党重新转向共和党。奥巴马先生一度高耸入天的支持率如今和小布什糟糕任期内的同时期不相上下。尽管大选获胜的余音尚未散去，尽管紧握着国会两院的多数党席位，尽管还有大量选民的明显善意，但奇怪的是，奥巴马先生看上去却软弱无力。
Empty posts, weak policies 姿态很空，政策很弱
There are two main reasons for this. The first is Mr Obama’s fail ure to grapple as fast and as single-mindedly with the economy as he should have done. His stimulus package, though huge, was subcontracted to Congress, which did a mediocre job: too much of the money will arrive too late to be of help in the current crisi s. His budget, though in some ways more honest than his predec essor’s, is wildly optimistic. And he has taken too long to produc e his plan for dealing with the trillions of dollars of toxic assets which fester on banks’ balance-sheets.