Yuan in the SDR

纳“元”入“篮”

The Chinese renminbi joins the IMF’s reserve-currency basket

人民币加入IMF储备货币篮子

Its new status might make for a weaker yuan

新形势可能导致人民币下跌

Nov30th2015|SHANGHAI|Business and finance

PASSING through the Suez Canal became easier earlier this year,thanks to an expansion completed in August.Now it is about to become a little bit more complicated. Transit fees for the canal are denominated in Special Drawing Rights,a basket of currencies used by the International Monetary Fund(IMF)as its unit of account.Today the IMF decided to include the yuan in the basket from next year,joining the dollar,the euro,the pound and the yen.

今年早些时候，得益于8月的扩建，通过苏伊士运河比以前方便得多。但是现在，情况又变得复杂起来：运河的过船费是以特别提款权为单位计算的。“特别提款权”，即SDR，是国际货币基金组织（IMF）用作计费单位的一篮子储备货币。IMF于今年11月30日宣布将在明年正式纳“元”入“篮”，自此人民币将成为继美元、欧元、英镑和日元之后的第五种储备货币。

If lots of things were priced in SDRs,the IMF’s decision would have forced companies around the world to buy yuan-denominated assets as soon as possible,to hedge their exposure.That would have prompted China’s currency to strengthen dramatically.But the Suez transit fees are a rare case;few other goods or services are priced in SDRs. Instead,admission to the currency club is significant mainly for its symbolism:the IMF is lending its imprimatur to the yuan as a reserve currency—a safe,liquid asset in which governments can park their wealth.Indeed,far from setting off a groundswell of demand for the yuan,the IMF’s decision may pave the way for the yuan’s depreciation.如果许多物品都是以SDR来定价的话，那么IMF此番决定将会迫使世界各地的公司纷纷立即购入以人民币计价的资产，来对冲其资产风险，这就会令中国的货币快速走强。但苏伊士运河过船费情况特殊：只有很少的货物或服务是以SDR定价的。相反，人民币这次能够跻身一篮子货币俱乐部更多的是象征意义：储备货币是各国政府储存财富的安全港，具有较高的流动性，而人民币“入篮”则表示了IMF对中国货币的认可。确实，这不会导致全球对于人民币的迫切需求，但IMF的决定可能会为人民币贬值铺平道路。

The reason is that the People’s Bank of China(PBOC)will now find itself under more pressure to manage the yuan as central banks in most developed economies do:by letting market forces determine their prices.In bringing the yuan into the SDR,the IMF had to determine that it is“freely usable”.This is a large leap of faith in a currency which is still heavily managed,so before coming to this decision,the IMF asked China to make changes to its currency regime.

原因在于人民币的币值将更难被中国人民银行（即中国央行）操控，而不得不像大部分发

达经济体那样由市场来决定。既然人民币已经“入篮”，IMF就要确定其能够被“自由地使用”，这对于尚被政府严格控制的货币来说是信任度的极大提升，因此IMF在做出此决定前要求中国改革其货币体系。

Most importantly,China has now tied the yuan’s exchange rate at the start of daily trading to its previous day’s close;in the past the starting quote was effectively set at the whim of the PBOC,creating a big gap with its actual traded value.It was the elimination of this gap that lay behind the yuan’s2%devaluation in August,a move that rattled global markets.Though still far from being a free-floating currency—the central bank has intervened since August to prop the yuan up—the cost of such intervention is now higher.The PBOC must spend real money during the trading day to guide the yuan to its desired level.

更重要的是，中国现在将人民币每日开盘汇率与前一日的收盘汇率挂钩；而在过去，开盘价完全由中国人民银行决定，造成官方定价与市场实际交易价格之间出现了巨大的差异。而为消除这种差异，人民币在8月出现贬值2%，此举造成了全球市场的动荡。从8月中国央行干预市场为人民币保值的行为看，“元”离自由浮动货币仍相去甚远，但是现在要再实施类似的干预成本就更高了。中国人民银行以后不得不在交易日里砸更多真金白银，才能让人民币保持在其理想的币值。

Inclusion in the SDR will only deepen expectations that China let market forces decide the yuan’s exchange rate.The point of the SDR is to weave disparate currencies together into a single,diversified unit;some have suggested,for example,that commodities be quoted in SDRs to reduce the volatility of pricing them in dollars.But if China maintains its de facto peg to the dollar,the result of adding the yuan to the SDR will be to boost the dollar’s weight in the basket,undermining its purpose.

人民币加入SDR，人们只会更加期望中国任由市场调节人民币汇率。SDR的意义在于将不同币种组成一个货币篮子，即一种以多样货币为记账的单位。一些人曾主张应在货币篮子里报价大宗商品以减少以美元标价而产生的大幅价格波动。但是如果中国继续依附美元，人民币入“篮”将会导致货币篮子里美元的权重增加，反而适得其反。

What would happen if China really did give the market the last word on the yuan?For some time it has been under downward pressure.The simplest yardstick is the decline in China’s foreign-exchange reserves,from a peak of nearly$4trillion last year to just over$3.5trillion now,a reflection,in part,of the PBOC’s selling of dollars to support the yuan.Were it not for tighter capital controls since the summer,outflows might have been even bigger.

倘若中国真的让市场决定人民币走势，那么走势将会如何呢？人民币在一段时间内存在着贬值压力。最简单的标尺就是中国外汇储备的减少，它从去年近4万亿的峰值下降到仅3.5万亿余，侧面可以看出中国人民银行是通过抛售美元来支持人民币的。如果不是从今年夏季起国家严格管制资本，美元流出量可能还会更大。

And the yuan does look overvalued.Despite China’s slowing economy,the yuan’s continued link to the surging dollar has put it near an all-time high in trade-weighted terms,up by more than13%in the past18months(see chart).With the Federal Reserve

set to start raising interest rates,at the same time as China is loosening its monetary policy,the yuan is likely to come under more downward pressure,at least against the dollar.

而且人民币看起来确实估价过高。尽管中国经济放缓，但以贸易加权汇率计算，人民币因与走强的美元持续保持紧密联系，从而较此前18个月内（如图）升值了13%，创历史最高。美联储12月开始着手升息的同时，中国正放松其货币政策，因此，人民币可能会面临更大的贬值压力，至少相对走强的美元而言。

It would be foolhardy to predict that China will suddenly give the market totally free rein. That would go against its deep-seated preference for gradual reform.But while basking in the glow of its SDR status,China must also be aware of the responsibility to minimise currency intervention that comes with it.A weaker yuan may well be the result.

不可轻率预计中国会突然放手，任由市场“摆布”人民币，因为这违背了其根深蒂固的逐步改革思想。但是现今中国在享受SDR荣誉地位的同时，也应意识到自身有相应的责任减少对货币的干预。否则，人民币下跌将在所难免。

学习笔记

【知识拓展】：

1.Special Drawing Rights：特别提款权：亦称“纸黄金”（Paper Gold）是国际货币基金组织根据会员国认缴的份额分配的，可用于偿还国际货币基金组织债务、弥补会员国政府之间国际收支逆差的一种账面资产。是基金组织分配给会员国的一种使用资金的权利。

2.International Monetary Fund(IMF)：与世界银行同时成立、并列为世界两大金融机构之一，其职责是监察货币汇率和各国贸易情况，提供技术和资金协助，确保全球金融制度运作正常。

3.Hedge对冲：指特意减低另一项投资的风险的投资，是一种在减低商业风险的同时仍然能在投资中获利的手法。

4.Quote报价：【商】报(价),开(价)，(+at/for)

5.Starting quote开盘价：又称开市价，是指某种证券在证券交易所每个交易日开市后的第一笔每股买卖成交价格。

https://www.360docs.net/doc/d57128770.html,modities大宗商品：指可进入流通领域，但非零售环节，具有商品属性用于工农业生产与消费使用的大批量买卖的物质商品。

7.Foreign-exchange reserves：外汇储备：又称外汇存底，是一个国家或经济体的货币当局持有并可随时兑换他国货币的资产，通常以美元计算。外汇储备是一个国家或经济体国际清偿力的重要组成部分，同时对于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率有重要影响。

8.People’s Bank of China(PBOC)：中国人民银行，是世界上资产仅次于美国联邦储备系

统的第二大的中央银行。

【语言点】：

1.A groundswell of：a sudden increase in a particilar feeling among people[群情的]突然高涨。

2.De facto:adj.existing in fact whether with lawful authority or not;

adv.in reality or fact.实际上，事实上。

3.Peg sth to sth:与……挂钩E.g.Peg to the dollar钉住美元制;与美元挂钩

4.Deep-seated:根深蒂固

5.At the whim of sb:they are at the whim of the boss,他们配合老板的步调行事.