Beijing Industrial Property Market Research & Forecast Report - 3Q 2014

Beijing Industrial Property Market Research &  Forecast Report - 3Q 2014

Beijing Industrial Property Market Research &  Forecast Report - 3Q 2014

MARKET OVERVIEW

市场概览

Beijing’s industrial economy remained resilient in 3Q14, despite a deceleration in the overall economy. According to the Beijing Statistics Bureau, Beijing’s industrial output for the first eight months expanded by 7.0% y-o-y. At the same time, supported by the fast growth of e-commerce, the city’s online shopping sales rose by 56.6% y-o-y to RMB80.4 billion. Moreover, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce confirmed that utilised foreign direct investment grew 6.0% y-o-y by the end of July 2014. In the light of the positive industrial economic conditions, growing demand and limited supply led to an increase in the average rent and a decrease in the vacancy rate in Beijing’s logistics real estate market during 3Q14.

There were no new projects completed in the market during this quarter and the total stock of Beijing’s logistics property market remained at 1.5 million sqm as of end-3Q14. By submarket, the Beijing Tongzhou Logistics Park (BTLP) remained the largest market share among all submarkets, accounting for 36.4% of the total during the quarter.

2014年第三季度,尽管整体经济有所减速,北京工业经济形势仍保持稳定的增长势态。据北京市统计局,前八个月,北京市工业生产总值同比扩大7.0%。同期,受快速增长的电子商务的支撑,该市网上零售额同比增长56.6%,至人民币804亿元。此外,北京市商务委确认,截止2014年7月,利用外商直接投资同比增长6.0%。2014年第三季度,鉴于积极的工业经济形势,增长的需求及有限的供应使得北京物流物业市场的平均租金有所上升且空置率下降。

季内,无新增项目完工入市;截止2014年第三季度,北京物流物业市场总存量维持在150万平方米。就子市场而言,截至季末,北京通州物流园所占市场份额仍是所有子市场中最大,占市场总存量的36.4%。

SUPPLY

供应

Demand for high quality logistics properties remained strong during the third quarter of 2014. Domestic consumption and the rapid growth of e-commerce drove significant demand for modern logistics facilities in Beijing. Enquiries from domestic and international companies in third-party logistics (3PL), e-commerce, fast moving consumer goods and archive management industries remained high during 3Q14. Many high quality logistics properties remained fully occupied. The lack of available logistics space limited net absorption to approximately 4,900 sqm, while the average vacancy rate edged down 0.3 percentage points to 4.8%.

DEMAND

需求

2014年第三季度,对高品质物流物业的需求保持强劲。国内消费及迅速增长的电子商务驱动着对北京现代化物流设施的巨大需求。季内,来自第三方物流、电子商务、快速消费品及档案管理行业的国内外企业的询问量保持旺盛。众多高品质物流物业维持满租状态。缺乏可出租的物流面积使得净吸纳量约为4,900平方米,而平均空置率小幅下降0.3个百分点至4.8%。

On the back of the resilient demand for the city’s logistics property market, vacancy rates in all the submarkets decreased. By submarket, Beijing Airport Logistic Park (BALP) continued to be the most 受到该市物流物业旺盛市场需求的支撑,各个子市场的空置率均有所下降。就子市场而言,由于临近便捷的交通网络及数个运输服务公司,北京空港物流园继续成为北京物流市场中最受欢迎的

2Research & Forecast Report | 3Q 2014 | Industrial | Colliers International

Source: Research, Colliers International, Beijing 数据来源:北京高力国际研究部

Source: Research, Colliers International, Beijing

数据来源:北京高力国际研究部Demand for logistics space in newly completed logistics properties was strong in 3Q14. This was reflected in significant leasing transactions including: Geodis’ lease of approximately 8,000 sqm at Yupei Beijing Tongzhou Logistics Park; and the expansion of Compass Logistics, a third-party logistics provider for Subaru, by approximately 4,000 sqm in Yupei’s Beijing Tongzhou Logistics Park. In some cases, landlords with vacant space held off from signing leases to wait for tenants who can afford higher rentals. Yupei’s Beijing Tongzhou Logistics Park, a new supply in 2Q14, is an example and is receiving large volumes of enquiries from prospective tenants to take up the logistics space.

2014年第三季度,对新竣工物流物业空间的需求强劲。这反映于季内的重要租赁交易,其中包括:乔达国际于宇培北京通州物流园承租约8,000平方米;斯巴鲁旗下第三方物流提供商讯捷物流,于宇培北京通州物流园扩租约4,000平方米。在某些情况下,持有空置空间的业主推迟租约签订,以期等到可承担较高租金的租户。2014年第二季度的新增供应宇培北京通州物流园即系佐证,该物流园接到大量承租其物流空间的潜在租户的询问。

Chart 2 Beijing Logistics Rent by Cluster

图2 北京工业物业子市场租金

Chart 1 Overall Beijing Logistics New Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate 图1 北京工业物业市场新增供应、净吸纳量和空置率

Beijing Industrial Property Market Research &  Forecast Report - 3Q 2014

Beijing Industrial Property Market Research &  Forecast Report - 3Q 2014

favourable area in Beijing’s logistics market, due to being close-by to convenient transportation and the nearby cluster of transportation services companies. As a result, logistics properties in this submarket remained fully occupied. In the Beijing Tongzhou Logistics Park (BTLP), the vacancy rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points q-o-q to 10.3%. In Beijing Jingnan Logistics Harbour (BJLH), the vacancy rate was recorded at 2.2%, down by 1.0 percentage points q-o-q. 区域。因此,位于该子市场的物流物业维持满租状态。北京通州物流园的空置率环比下降0.2个百分点至10.3%。京南物流港的空置率录得2.2%,环比下降1.0个百分点。Given the strong demand and a lack of new supply, rentals continued to be buoyant across all submarkets in 3Q14. Overall, the average net effective rent of Beijing’s prime logistics property market climbed to a new high since 2012 of RMB36.2 psm per month, up 0.8% q-o-q. BALP remained the most expensive area and maintained the fastest rental growth among all submarkets at 2.4% q-o-q. This was followed by BTLP , where the average rent increased by 0.2% q-o-q to RMB39.2 psm per month.

鉴于需求强劲及新增供应缺乏,季内各个子市场租金均保持在高位。整体而言,北京优质物流物业市场平均净有效租金已攀至自2012年以来的新高,达人民币36.2元每月每平方米,环比上升0.8%。北京空港物流园仍是各个子市场中租金最高且租金增幅最快的区域,环比增幅为2.4%。北京通州物流园紧随其后,平均租金环比上升0.2%,至人民币39.2元每月每平方米。

RENT

租金

There were no en bloc sales transactions concluded in Beijing’s 2014年第三季度,北京物流物业市场未录得整售交易。本季无

INVESTMENT

投资

Beijing Industrial Property Market Research &  Forecast Report - 3Q 2014

According to the guiding document, Opinions on Promoting the Development of Business and Trade Logistics , issued by the Ministry of Commerce in September 2014, local governments will be encouraged to maintain supporting development of the third logistics enterprises and promoting development of commercial logistics in key fields. This document will serve as a backbone to strengthen and sustain the growth of the logistics property market in Beijing in the medium- to long-term.

2014年9月,据商务部出台的指导文件《关于促进商贸物流发展的实施意见》,将鼓励地方政府继续支持第三物流企业及在主要区域积极发展商贸物流。此文件将在中长期内作为支柱,巩固并支撑北京市物流物业市场。

OUTLOOK

展望

两个新增项目计划将于2014年底完工入市,包括由普洛斯开发的位于其他子市场的72,000平方米的物流物业,及由百利威物流开发的位于京南物流港的55,000平方米的物流设施。考虑到现有的高需求水平,这些项目或将迅速被吸纳,且中短期内北京物流物业市场的可出租面积仍将紧缺。有限的供应将导致市场继续倾向于业主方,业主将继续持有空置面积,以期寻求支付能力更高的租户。有鉴于此,租金预期将持续自2014年第二季度以来的增长趋势。

Two new projects, including a 72,000 sqm logistics property in the Others submarket by GLP and a 55,000 sqm logistics facility in BJLH by Beijing Bailiwei Logistics Company, are scheduled for completion by the end of 2014. Given the current high levels of demand, these projects are expected to be absorbed quickly and availability in Beijing’s logistics property market will remain tight over the short-to medium-term. Limited supply will continue to favour landlords who have been holding what available space they have for tenants willing to pay increased rentals. As a result, rentals are forecast to grow as they have done since 2Q14.

logistics property market during the third quarter of 2014. The land market was also quiet, as no industrial land for logistics use was put up for sale during this quarter. Backed by the continued growth in e-commerce and domestic consumption , and the higher investment returns relative to other property sectors in Beijing, the logistics market continued to attract attention from both domestic and foreign investors, such as China Vanke Co ., Ltd., Blackstone Group, and KKR & Co. L.P . In addition, foreign logistics developers in China attempted to expand in China by teaming up with domestic market players such as Global Logistic Properties (GLP). According to GLP’s press release, its alliance with China Materials Storage and Transportation Development Company (CMSTD) will invest more than RMB3.6 billion in new logistics facilities and each currently own several logistics properties in Beijing.

工业物流用地入市销售,土地市场也较为平静。受持续增长的电子商务及国内消费的支撑,且物流物业相较于北京其他物业类型的较高回报率,物流市场继续吸引来自国内外投资者的关注,如中国万科,黑石集团及KKR集团。此外,在中国的外资物流开发商,如普洛斯,试图通过与国内市场参与者的合作来扩大其在中国的版图。据普洛斯的新闻发布,该公司与中储发展的同盟将投资超过人民币36亿元新建物流设施,这两家公司现均在北京拥有数个物流物业。

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