第35章 通货膨胀和失业率之间的短期权衡取舍

102 High aggregate demand Low aggregate demand 15,000 unemployment is7%
2%
A Phillips curve
0
16,000 unemployment is 4%
Quantity of output
0
4% output is 16,000
2
菲利普斯曲线的由来
• 1960, 保罗 萨缪尔森和罗伯特 索罗 “反通 货膨胀政策分析”
• 通货膨胀和失业率之间负的相关关系
• 政策制定者: 货币和财政政策
– 影响总需求
• 选择菲利普斯曲线上的一个点
• 替代关系: 高通胀和低失业 • 或者低通胀和高失业
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Unemployment 7% output Rate (percent) is15,000
该图假设2020年物价水平为100，并画出了2021年可能的结果。a表示总需求与总供给模型。如果总需求低，经济 在A点，产量低（15000）且物价水平也低（102）。如果总需求高，经济在B点，产量高（16000）且物价水平也 高（106）。B图显示了菲利普斯曲线的含义。当总需求低得出了A点，失业率高（7%），而通货膨胀率低（2）。 当总需求高时得出了B点，失业率低（4%），而通货膨胀率高（6%）。
4
总供给、总需求和菲利普斯曲线
• 菲利普斯曲线
– 通货膨胀和失业的组合 – 在短期中 – 随着总需求曲线移动 – 使经济沿着总供给曲线移动
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长期菲利普斯曲线
• 长期菲利普斯曲线
– 是垂直的 – 失业率倾向于自然水平
• 自然失业率
– 在长期中并不取决于货币增长和通货膨胀
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P2
B
3. . . . and increases the inflation rate . . .
A P1 2. . . . raises the price level . . . 0 AD2 A
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通货膨胀和失业率之 间的短期权衡取舍
PowerPoint Slides prepared by: Andreea CHIRITESCU Eastern Illinois University
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B
2. . . . but unemployment remains at its natural rate in the long run.
Low inflation
A
Natural rate of unemployment
Unemployment Rate
根据弗里德曼和费尔普斯的看法，在长期通货膨胀率和失业率之间不存在权衡取舍关系。 货币供给的增长决定通货膨胀率。无论通货膨胀如何，失业率都趋于自然失业率。因此， 长期菲利普斯曲线是垂直的。
1
菲利普斯曲线的由来
• 菲利普斯曲线
– 表示短期替代 – 在通货膨胀和失业率之间
• 1958, A. W. 菲利普斯
– “1861–1957年英国失业率和货币工资变 动率之间的关系”
• 通货膨胀和失业率之间负的相关关系
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10
长期菲利普斯曲线
• 长期菲利普斯曲线
– 货币中性的古典思想表示
• 增加货币供给
– 总需求曲线 – 向右移动
• 物价水平 – 增加 • 产出 – 自然水平
– 通货膨胀率– 增加
• 失业 – 自然率
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3
菲利普斯曲线
Inflation Rate (percent per year) B 6%
图1
2%
A Phillips curve 4% 7% Unemployment Rate (percent)
菲利普斯曲线说明了通货膨胀率和失业率之间的负相关关系。在A点，通货膨胀率低而 失业率高。在B点，通货膨如果美联储缓慢的增加货币供给
– 通货膨胀率低 – 失业 – 自然率
• 如果美联储快速的增加货币供给
– 通货膨胀率高 – 失业 – 自然率
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9
长期菲利普斯曲线
Inflation Rate
1. When the Fed increases the growth rate of the money supply, the rate of inflation increases . . . High inflation
图3
Long-run Phillips curve
6
图2
菲利普斯曲线如何与总需求和总供给模型相关