多恩布什宏观经济学[01,导论]
《宏观经济学》word版
《宏观经济学》word版绪论第⼀节宏观经济学的研究对象⼀、宏观经济学的定义“宏观”是希腊⽂“Uakpo”的意译，原意是“⼤”。
⼀般认为，宏观经济学（Macroeconomics）⼀词最早是挪威著名经法学家，第⼀届诺贝尔经济学获得者之⼀R·弗瑞希（R Frisch）在1933年提出的。
经济学家们给宏观经济学下了多种⼤同⼩异的定义。
例如，R·多恩布什与S·费希尔说：“宏观经济学是研究整体经济⾏为的——⾼潮与衰退，经济中产品与劳务的总产量和产量的增长，通胀与失业率，国际收⽀以及汇率。
为了研究经济的⼀般状况，宏观经济学集中在影响经济状况的经济⾏为与政策上——消费与投资，⼯资与价格变动的决定因素，货币与财政政策，货币存量，联邦预算，利率、公债。
简⾔之，宏观经济学研究当今的主要经济争论与问题。
”T ·德恩伯格（T ·Dernbwrg）给宏观经济学下的定义是：“‘宏观’⼀词的意思是⼤，⽽宏观经济学的意思是⼤经济学。
宏观经济学研究诸如总产量、总就业与失业，价格的总⽔平与变动率、经济增长率等总体问题。
宏观经济学家所提出的问题涉及到⼴泛的总量——与单个居民户⽀出决策的决定因素相对的所有消费者⽀出的决定；什么是决定了所有⼚商共同的资本⽀出，⽽不是单个⼚商建⽴⼀个新⼚的决定；与某个⼈为什么失业相对，决定经济中总失业⽔平的是什么。
宏观经济学衡量整个经济活动；它分析宏观经济政策所运⽤的这些活动的决定；它预测未来的经济活动；并且⼒图提出旨在使预测与⽣产、就业与价格的⽬标值相⼀致的政策反应。
”总之，宏观经济学是从总体上研究国民经济的⽔平、均衡、稳定、运⾏、增长与调控的⼀门经济学科。
国民经济是⼀个统⼀的有机整体，其内部各系统、各要素之间相互制约、相互影响。
不同的经济学科分别研究其中的⼀个部分、⼀个环节或⼀个⽅⾯，⽽宏观经济学则⾼层建瓴、总揽全局，描绘国民经济的整体图像，并要对达到社会经济最优化提出政策性建议。
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多恩布什《宏观经济学》第十版英文原版I19revised
CHAPTER 19BIG EVENTS: THE ECONOMICS OF DEPRESSION,HYPERINFLATION, AND DEFICITSChapter Outline•The Great Depression and its impact on macroeconomics•Money and inflation•Monetarism and the rational expectations approach•The effects of hyperinflation•Disinflation and the sacrifice ratio•Credibility•The Fed's dilemma•Deficits, money growth, and seigniorage•The inflation tax•Federal government outlays and revenues•The primary deficit•The debt-to-income ratio•The burden of the debt•Financing Social SecurityChanges from the Previous EditionThe material in this chapter was in Chapter 18 in the previous edition. It has been updated, Boxes 19-2 and 19-5 have been added, and other boxes have been renumbered accordingly. Introduction to the MaterialThe Great Depression in the 1930s presented an economic crisis of enormous proportions. Between 1929 and 1933, real GDP in the U.S. fell by almost 30% and unemployment reached an all-time high of almost 25%. While the economy grew fairly rapidly from 1933-37, unemployment remained in the double digit range. In 1937/38, there was another major recession and the unemployment rate remained above 5% until 1942. In the 1930s unemployment averaged 18.8%, but by 1939 real GDP had recovered to its 1929 level.The classical economists of the time were not equipped to explain the existence of such substantial and persistent unemployment or to prescribe policies to deal with it. Only in 1936, in John Maynard Keynes’book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, was a macroeconomic theory introduced upon which policies to keep the economy out of future recessions could be based. Keynes’ theory provided an explanation of what had happened during the Great Depression and suggested policies that might have prevented it.The stock market crash of 1929 is often seen as the catalyst for the Great Depression but, in fact, economic activity actually started to decline even before the crash. What might well have393been an average recession turned into a very severe depression due to the inept economic policies employed at the time. The Fed failed to provide needed liquidity to banks and did little to prevent the collapse of the financial system. The huge contraction in money supply due to the large numbers of bank failures caused the economic downturn. Fiscal policy was weak at best. Politicians concerned with balancing the budget raised taxes to match increases in government spending, so the decline in aggregate demand was not counteracted.Many other countries also suffered during the same period, mainly as a result of the collapse of the international financial system and the enactment of high tariffs worldwide. These policies were designed to protect domestic producers in an attempt to improve each country’s domestic trade balance at the expense of foreign trading partners. However, the attempts to "export" unemployment ultimately resulted in an overall decline in world trade and production.In the U.S., many institutional changes and administrative actions, collectively known as the New Deal, were implemented in the 1930s. The Fed was reorganized and new institutions were created, including the FDIC, the SEC, and the Social Security Administration. Public works programs and a program to establish orderly competition among firms were also implemented.The experience of the Great Depression led to the belief that the economy is inherently unstable and active stabilization policy is needed to maintain full employment. Keynes was an advocate of active government policy. In his work, he explained what had happened in the Great Depression and what could be done to avoid a recurrence. Many years later, Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz offered a different explanation. In their book A Monetary History of the United States, Friedman and Schwartz argued that the severe decline in money supply, caused by the Fed’s failure to prevent banks from failing, was the reason for the severity of the Great Depression. They claimed that monetary policy is very powerful and that fluctuations in money supply can explain most of the fluctuations in GDP over the last century. This argument provided the impetus for new research on the effects of fiscal and monetary stabilization policies. While economists are still debating these issues, we can conclude that monetary policy can affect the behavior of output in the short and medium run, but not in the long run. In the long run, increases in the growth rate of money supply will simply lead to increases in the rate of inflation. Box 19-3 gives an overview of the monetarist positions on the importance of money for the economy, while Box 19-2 quotes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who admits that the magnitude of the Great Depression was indeed the result of the Fed’s action—or, more accurately, inaction.The link between inflation and monetary growth can easily be derived from the quantity theory of money equation:MV = PY ==> %∆M + %∆V = %∆P + %∆Y ==> m + v = π + y ==> π = m - y + v In other words, the rate of inflation (%∆P = π) is determined by the difference between the growth rate of nominal money supply (%∆M = m) and the growth rate of real output (%∆Y = y), adjusted for the percentage change in the income velocity of money (%∆V = v).Figure 19-1 shows that trends in the rate of inflation and the growth of money supply (M2) have been somewhat similar over the last four decades. There is plenty of evidence to support the notion that in the long run, inflation is a monetary phenomenon here in the U.S. as well as in other countries. However, there are short-run variations, indicating that changes in velocity and output growth have also affected the inflation rate. By the mid 1990s, the relationship between394M2 growth and inflation had largely broken down, even for the long run. It is still true, however, that there has never been inflation in the long run without rapid growth of money supply, and the faster money grew the higher the rate of inflation.Although there is no exact definition, countries are said to experience hyperinflation when the inflation rate reaches 1,000% annually. Countries that have experienced hyperinflation have all had huge budget deficits which, in many cases, originated from increased government spending during wartime. A classical example is the German hyperinflation of 1922/23. In an economy experiencing hyperinflation, there is often widespread indexing, most likely to foreign exchange rates rather than to the price level, since prices are changing so fast. Eventually, hyperinflation becomes too much to bear and the government is forced to take harsh measures, including fiscal reform and the introduction of a new monetary unit pegging the new money to a foreign currency. Box 19-4 on the situation in Bolivia in the 1980s provides a good example of how hyperinflation can be stopped. It also points out that the costs are great in terms of decreasing per-capita income. In 1985, Bolivia stopped external debt service, raised taxes, reduced money creation, and stabilized the exchange rate. Inflation came down quickly, but per-capita income in 1989 was 35 percent less than it had been a decade earlier.In its fight against hyperinflation, Israel tried to keep unemployment rates low by instituting wage and price controls while also sharply cutting budget deficits and rationing credit. These measures reduced the rate of inflation significantly. In the late 1980s, the governments of Argentina and Brazil imposed wage-price controls but failed to supplement them with fiscal austerity, so the result was much less satisfactory, although they, like many South American countries eventually succeeded in lowering their inflation rates. In the early 1990s, countries in Eastern Europe experienced brief periods of high inflation during their adjustments from centrally planned economies to more market based economies (as shown in Table 19-6). There is no guarantee that periods of hyperinflation will not surface again. New Box 19-5 describes the situation in Zimbabwe where the decision made in 2006 to print more money to finance higher government spending led to inflation rates in excess of 1,000%.When inflation is high, policy makers must focus on reducing it without causing a major economic downturn. This is fairly difficult to accomplish, however, since labor contracts tend to reflect past expectations and new contract negotiations take time. In addition, it may be difficult for a central bank to gain credibility in its fight against inflation because of its behavior in the past. Credibility is important, since inflationary expectations adjust down faster if people believe that a government is serious in its attempt to reduce inflation. If this is the case, the expectations-adjusted Phillips curve shifts to the left sooner and the economy adjusts more quickly to the full-employment level of output at a lower inflation rate. But some increase in unemployment is almost always needed to reduce inflation, since real wages need to adjust down to their full-employment level. The costs to society are often measured in terms of the sacrifice ratio, that is, the ratio of the cumulative percentage loss of GDP to the achieved reduction in the inflation rate.Probably all economists now agree with the monetarist propositions that rapid money growth tends to be inflationary and inflation cannot be kept low unless money growth is kept low. We also know that monetary policy has long and variable lags. But other monetarist positions remain more controversial, including those that suggest that the economy is inherently stable and that monetary targets are better than interest rate targets. The rational expectations approach can be seen as an extension of the monetarist approach, with a strong belief that markets clear rapidly395and people use all information available to them. This is why they advocate policy rules rather than discretion and place emphasis on the credibility of policy makers. Box 19-6 highlights the rational expectations approach.Any government that is unwilling to show fiscal restraint will ultimately be faced with excessive money growth and an increase in the inflation rate. Continued large government budget deficits create a policy dilemma for a central bank, which must decide whether to monetize the debt. If the central bank decides not to finance the debt, the increased borrowing needs of the government may drive interest rates up, leading to the crowding out of private spending. The central bank may then be blamed for slowing down economic growth. But if the central bank is worried about high interest rates and monetizes the debt in order to keep interest rates low, inflation may increase with the central bank taking the blame.The financing of government spending through the creation of high-powered money is an alternative to explicit taxation. Inflation acts like a tax since the government can spend more by printing money while people can spend less, since some of their income must be used to increase their nominal money holdings. The inflation tax revenue is defined as:inflation tax revenue = (inflation rate)*(the real money base).The ability of the government to raise additional tax revenue through the creation of money (and therefore inflation) is called seigniorage, and Table 19-7 shows some empirical evidence of the inflation tax revenue raised as percentage of GDP for some Latin American countries. However, there is a limit to how much revenue a government can raise through an inflation tax. As inflation increases, people reduce their currency holdings and banks reduce their excess reserves, since holding money becomes more costly. Eventually the real monetary base falls so much that the government's inflation tax revenue decreases. Figure 19-3 shows this graphically.While higher deficits can cause higher inflation if they are financed through money creation, higher inflation may also contribute to deficits, since inflation reduces the real value of tax payments. In addition, high nominal interest rates (caused by high inflation) raise the nominal interest payments the government must make on the national debt. The inflation-adjusted deficit corrects for that and is defined in the following way:inflation-adjusted deficit = total deficit - (inflation rate)*(national debt).Large government budget deficits and rapid monetary expansion seem to be inevitable parts of hyperinflation. The high rate of monetary expansion originates in the government's desire to raise its inflation tax revenue. However, the government can only be successful if it prints money faster than the public anticipates. Eventually, the process will break down, as the real money base becomes smaller and smaller.During the 1980s, the U.S. experienced very large budget deficits, which were temporarily brought under control in the late 1990s, only to increase sharply again in 2002. Figure 19-4 shows the trend in U.S. budget deficits as percentage of GDP, while Tables 19-8 and 19-9 give an overview of trends in the U.S. government's outlays and revenues. It is interesting to note that entitlements and interest payments on the national debt have increased significantly over the last396four decades. On the revenue side, corporate income taxes as a share of GDP have declined, while social insurance taxes have increased substantially.To highlight the role of the national debt in the budget, it is useful to distinguish between the actual budget deficit and the primary (non-interest) budget deficit. The U.S. budget deficits in the 1990s were actually more a result of high interest payments on the previously incurred debt than of government spending exceeding tax revenues. This is the legacy of past deficits. As the national debt accumulates, its interest costs accelerate, contributing even more to the budget deficit. The national debt is the result of all past and present budget deficits, and the process by which the Treasury finances the debt is called debt management. As old government securities mature, the Treasury issues new securities to make the payments on old ones.Robert Eisner has argued that it is important to recognize that the government has assets and not just debts. Any spending on infrastructure should be treated as accumulation of real capital and offset by the debt issued to pay for it. In other words, just like private spending, government expenditures should be separated into government “consumption” and government “investment.”With the U.S. gross national debt now exceeding $8.5 trillion (or over $28,000 per capita), it becomes important to consider its real burden. If individuals who hold government bonds consider an increase in government debt as an increase in their personal wealth, they will consume more and a lower share of GDP will be invested. This will lead to a lower rate of capital accumulation and slower future economic growth. Another concern is that foreigners hold a large part of the debt. Since the burden of future tax payments on this part of the debt (plus interest) will fall on U.S. taxpayers while the recipients of these payments will be foreigners, there will be a reduction in U.S. net wealth.High deficits cannot be sustained indefinitely, but as long as national income is growing faster than the national debt (implying a declining debt-income ratio), the potential for instability is fairly low. In the 1990s, there was widespread sentiment that government had grown too big and that sound fiscal policy had to be implemented. The fiscal restriction finally succeeded in turning the large budget deficits of the 1980s into budget surpluses in 1998. A debate quickly began among politicians about the best ways to put the surplus to use. Was it better to cut taxes, increase spending, or gradually pay off the national debt? The path chosen by the Bush administration was a massive tax cut, leading to renewed budget deficits in 2002.Another debate revolves around Social Security reform. There is increasing concern about the financial difficulties that the Social Security system will face in the near future. The system is financed to a large extent on a pay-as-you-go basis, with most of the earmarked taxes paid by current workers being used immediately to finance the Social Security benefits of current retirees. Such a transfer of resources from the young to the old can be accomplished if:• A growing population increases the ratio of workers to retirees. If population growth slows, however, then contributions have to be increased or benefits have to be cut.•High-income growth allows retirement benefits to be higher than past contributions, since the source of the benefits is the higher income of the younger generations. If income growth slows, however, then the system may face financing difficulties.•The political situation is favorable. A larger percentage of older people than younger people vote so the elderly can enforce the intergenerational transfer through the political system. But at some point, the young, who expect to receive lower benefits than their parents relative to their contributions, may refuse to support the system through their taxes.397While the Social Security system is often seen as a “forced savings system,” which makes sure that everyone accumulates some wealth for retirement, there is strong empirical evidence that the system actually reduces national saving due to its pay-as-you-go financing. The decline in saving reduces the rate of capital accumulation, which lowers productivity and future living standards.The Social Security trust fund actually has been growing as a result of the Social Security Reform of 1983, but current predictions are that the system will be bankrupt after 2045 when most of the baby-boomer generation will have retired. While most people do not wish to see the Social Security system totally abandoned, additional reforms are very likely in the near future. The central question is how to earn higher returns on the funds invested to prevent the system from insolvency and how to preserve equity for those who have already paid into the system. Suggestions for LecturingStudents who follow the news see stock prices fluctuate daily and they probably heard about past stock market bubbles and crashes. These students will be curious about the impact of major swings in stock market activity on the economy. Most people assume that the stock market crash of October, 1929 marked the beginning of the Great Depression and are not aware that economic activity had actually begun to decline earlier. A good way to introduce the material in this chapter is to ask: “Could a Great Depression happen again?” or “Do stock market crashes cause economic downturns?” Either will lead to a lively class discussion that can help to highlight several of the issues raised in the chapter. In this discussion the major stock market crash of October, 1987 and the decline in (especially high-tech) stock values that started in March, 2000 will undoubtedly come up. They are reminders that stock market bubbles will always eventually burst and that there is considerable risk associated with buying stocks.Most economists now agree that the magnitude of the Great Depression was exacerbated by inadequate fiscal and monetary policy responses. The Fed’s failure to inject e nough liquidity into the banking system to prevent failures led to a severe contraction in the supply of money and an economic downturn, and. Policy makers also did little initially to stimulate economic activity through fiscal policy. The severity of the economic situation in the 1930’s is not surprising to economists today, as no well-developed economic theory existed at the time that could deal with a disturbance of this magnitude. It was not until John Maynard Keynes offered an explanation of what had happened during the Great Depression and suggested ways to prevent future recessions that macroeconomists began to ponder the values of fiscal and monetary stabilization policies. It is no wonder that Keynes is seen by many as the “father of all macroeconomists.”Economic theories are generally pro ducts of their time and, as mentioned above, Keynes’macroeconomic theory was developed as a result of the Great Depression. His explanation and prescription for preventing future depressions were widely accepted, but did not have much impact on policy making in the U.S. until the 1960s, when the government followed (mostly fiscal) activist policies to ensure full employment.The handling of the major stock market crash of 1987 appears to indicate that policy makers have learned from past mistakes. Stock values dropped by more than 24% in October of 1987, but we did we not see a severe downturn in economic activity. Why not? For one, Alan398Greenspan, who had been appointed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Fed only a few months earlier, was conscious of what had happened in 1929 and immediately assured financial markets that the Fed would provide the liquidity needed to prevent a financial collapse. The Fed quickly started to undertake open market purchases in an effort to drive interest rates down. In addition, as a result of institutional changes implemented after the Great Depression, government now has a much larger role in the economy. Students should be aware that the Great Depression not only shaped modern macroeconomic thinking and approaches to stabilization policy, but also shaped the structure of many U.S. institutions. Instructors may want to spend some time talking about these institutions and their importance to our economy.It also should be noted that the economy was in much better shape when the stock market crashed in 1987 than it was in 1929. While we can only speculate on what would have happened had the economy been in worse shape, the existence of programs such as Social Security and unemployment insurance would have dampened the severity of a downturn by providing some automatic stability. In addition, the existence of the FDIC, which insures all bank deposits up to $100,000, now serves to avoid panic in financial markets and runs on banks.The recession in 1981/82, which was the most severe recession since the Great Depression and brought the unemployment level close to 11%, provides another good example that policy makers now react much more swiftly to major economic upheavals. Even though the recession was fairly severe, it did not last for an extended period, since expansionary policies were implemented almost immediately after the magnitude of the downturn became clear.There are still disagreements about the primary causes for the Great Depression and these should be clarified. The Keynesian explanation concentrates on spending behavior, that is, the reduction in consumption and the collapse of investment. The decrease in aggregate demand was exacerbated by the restrictive fiscal policy implemented by the government trying to balance the budget. The monetarist explanation concentrates on the behavior of money and asserts that the Fed failed to prevent the collapse of the banking system. The large number of bank failures led to a loss of confidence in the banking system, an enormous increase in the currency-deposit ratio, and therefore a huge decrease in the money multiplier. Monetarists see the resulting severe decline in money supply as the cause of the Great Depression. Both explanations fit the facts and it is important for instructors to point out that there is no inherent conflict between them; in fact, they complement one another.While the programs of the New Deal are largely credited with revitalizing the economy in the mid-1930s, probably one of the most important factors was the sharp increase in money supply, starting in 1933. This is often a forgotten fact. It should be noted that while unemployment remained high, the deflation of prices and wages stopped after 1933, and output began to rebound. In addition, some of the programs implemented by the government after the Great Depression helped to keep wages from falling further.The fact that unemployment’s downward pressure on wages tends to weaken if high unemployment is persistent should also be mentioned at this point. The possibility that the behavior of nominal wages affects the rate of inflation should be discussed with reference to the situation in some European countries, where the unemployment rate has been above the levels experienced in the U.S. for quite some time.The German hyperinflation of 1922-23, when the inflation rate averaged 322% per month, provides another example of a major economic event that shaped macroeconomic thinking. But399students will probably prefer to discuss more recent examples, such as the Bolivian experience of the 1980s highlighted in Box 19-4 or the situation in Zimbabwe starting in 2006. Both cases make clear that the cost of stopping hyperinflation can be extremely high in terms of a decreased standard of living. The discussion should make it clear that large budget deficits and rapid monetary growth are always prevalent in times of hyperinflation, and only draconian measures can ensure a reduction in inflationary expectations. Without such measures the economy will collapse and has to be completely restructured, with the introduction of a new monetary unit that may be pegged to a foreign exchange rate.There is no exact definition of hyperinflation, but it is said to exist when the inflation rate reaches 1,000% on an annual basis. Students will always remember the following definition of inflation in general: “inflation is nothing more than too much money chasing too few goods.” But is inflation “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” as Milton Friedman put it? Figure 19-1 indicates that the rate of inflation and the growth rate of M2 show somewhat similar long-run trends (at least until about 1993), but there are large variations in the short run. In other words, the link between monetary growth and the inflation rate is by no means precise. For one, growth in output affects the inflation rate and real money holdings. Interest rate changes and financial innovations also affect desired money holdings and therefore the income velocity of money. Empirical evidence indicates that the velocity of M2 has shown a fairly constant long-run trend from the 1960s to the 1990s, while the velocity of M1 has fluctuated significantly over the last few decades. Considering the enormous changes that took place in the U.S. banking system in the 1980s, it is surprising that the income velocity of M2 actually stayed as stable as it did. By the late 1990s, the link between M2 growth and the inflation rate had largely broken down; the possible causes and any monetary policy implications should be discussed.By now, students should be familiar with the quantity theory of money equation and should be able to derive the equation that shows the long-run relationship between money growth, output growth, velocity changes, and the rate of inflation. We can thus derive the following:MV = PY ==> %∆M + %∆V = %∆P + %∆Y ==> %∆P = %∆M - %∆Y + %∆V==> π = m - y + v.This equation indicates that higher growth rates of money (%∆M = m) adjusted for growth in output (%∆Y = y) and changes in velocity (%∆V = v) are associated with higher inflation rates (%∆P = π). The strict monetary growth rule is based on this equation and suggests that a zero inflation rate can be achieved if money supply is only allowed to grow at the same rate as the long-run trend of output, assuming that velocity remains stable. It should be made clear, that this equation shows only a long-run relationship and that output growth and velocity can be highly variable in the short run, causing great variations in the inflation rate.Besides looking at the role of monetary growth in determining the inflation rate, instructors may also want to spend some time looking at the role of nominal wages and labor productivity. Just by recalling the simple equationw = W/P,400。
多恩布什《宏观经济学》考试试卷1020
****多恩布什《宏观经济学》课程试卷（含答案）__________学年第___学期考试类型：（闭卷）考试考试时间：90 分钟年级专业_____________学号_____________ 姓名_____________1、判断题（19分，每题1分）1. 财政政策的内在时滞长于货币政策。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：财政政策的内在时滞较长。
因为一般来说政府行动较为缓慢。
比如在美国，支出或税收变动需要总统和参众两院的批准，这样从发现冲击到制定政策并开始执行之间需要特别长的时间。
而货币政策由于从决策到执行所需的环节较少，其内在时滞较短。
2. 货币需求对利率变动的敏感程度提高，会使LM曲线变得更陡峭。
（）正确错误答案：错误解析：货币需求对利率的敏感系数h越大，LM曲线的斜率k/h越小，因此LM曲线越平缓。
3. 通胀会扭曲银行储蓄，因为人们缴纳的是名义所得税而不是实际所得税。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：存在通胀的前提下，储蓄的机会成本就是物价上涨的水平，因此人们缴纳的所得税考虑了通货膨胀的因素，属于名义所得税。
4. 在20世纪70年代和80年代，菲利普斯曲线向外移动，使得在相对比较低的通货膨胀率水平上降低失业更为容易。
（）正确错误答案：错误解析：菲利普斯曲线向外移动表示在相对较高的通货膨胀水平上降低失业比较容易。
5. 如果相对购买力平价成立，那么通货膨胀率高的国家将会导致该国货币贬值。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：相对购买力平价的关系方程为：∆ε/ε＝πf－π，即名义汇率的增长率＝国外通货膨胀率－国内通货膨胀率。
因此，若相对购买力平价成立，通货膨胀率较高的国家，货币将贬值。
6. 浮动汇率下，货币政策的传导机制不同于封闭经济，前者通过改变汇率、后者通过改变利率来影响收入。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：开放经济下，货币政策的传导机制是通过货币供给变动改变汇率，通过汇率来影响进出口，进而影响国民收入。
而封闭经济下，货币政策只能影响利率，通过利率影响收入水平。
多恩布什《宏观经济学》考试试卷432
****多恩布什《宏观经济学》课程试卷（含答案）__________学年第___学期考试类型：（闭卷）考试考试时间：90 分钟年级专业_____________学号_____________ 姓名_____________1、判断题（19分，每题1分）1. 现行的存款准备金制度使商业银行也具有了创造货币的功能。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：现行的存款准备金制度是部分准备金制度，即银行只把它们的部分存款作为准备金，商业银行因此能创造信用，发放贷款，具备了货币创造的能力。
2. 与政策相关的“动态不一致性”是指当政者宣布政策的目的在于欺骗公众，以达到自己的党派利益。
（）正确错误答案：错误解析：与政策相关的政策的“动态不一致性”其目的在于欺骗公众，以优化公众利益。
3. 如果相对购买力平价成立，那么通货膨胀率高的国家将会导致该国货币贬值。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：相对购买力平价的关系方程为：∆ε/ε＝πf－π，即名义汇率的增长率＝国外通货膨胀率－国内通货膨胀率。
因此，若相对购买力平价成立，通货膨胀率较高的国家，货币将贬值。
4. 当期物价水平不仅受当期货币供给量的影响，而且还与未来货币供给量预期相关。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：如果预期未来货币供给量增加（或减少），则现期的物品将会升值（贬值），相应的价格将相对较低（高），现期价格将会上升（或减少）。
所以，当期物价水平不仅受当期货币供给量的影响，而且还与未来货币供给量预期相关。
5. 由购买力平价理论可知，按国外产品每单位美国产品衡量的名义汇率等于国内价格水平除以国外价格水平。
（）错误答案：错误解析：按国外产品每单位美国产品衡量的名义汇率等于实际汇率与价格水平的比率。
6. 根据内生经济增长模型，投资可以导致一国的长期增长。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：内生增长模型中，投资和储蓄都可以导致经济的持续增长。
7. 菲利普斯曲线表述的关系表明治理通货膨胀最有力的措施是工资和物价管制。
多恩布什《宏观经济学》考试试卷395
****多恩布什《宏观经济学》课程试卷（含答案）__________学年第___学期考试类型：（闭卷）考试考试时间：90 分钟年级专业_____________学号_____________ 姓名_____________1、判断题（19分，每题1分）1. 总供给曲线向右上方倾斜意味着产量与其自然率的背离与物价与其预期水平的背离负相关。
（）正确错误答案：错误解析：总供给曲线向右上方倾斜表示当物价水平背离了人们预期的物价水平时，供给量就背离了其长期水平或“自然水平”。
当物价水平高于预期水平时，产量就高于其自然率。
当物价水平低于预期水平时，产量就低于其自然率。
因此，产量与其自然率的背离与物价与其预期水平的背离正相关。
2. 在LM曲线不变的情况下，IS曲线越平坦，则财政政策的效果越差。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：在LM曲线不变的情况下，IS曲线越平坦，挤出效应就越大，财政政策效果就越差。
如图12-1所示。
图12-1 财政政策效果因IS斜率而异3. 如果货币供应减少，总需求曲线左移。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：货币供给减少，则利率上升，投资减少，总需求减少，从而总需求曲线左移。
4. 在货币需求完全取决于收入的古典情形下，财政政策的乘数为0。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：当货币需求完全取决于收入时，LM曲线为垂直线，当政府支出增加时，国民收入不变，如图10-1所示，即财政支出不能带来国民收入的变化，财政政策乘数为0。
图10-1 古典主义情形下财政政策效果5. 根据现值现金流分析，企业是否投资取决于净现值是否大于1。
（）正确错误答案：错误解析：当企业的净现值大于零时，企业进行投资；而企业净现值为负数时，则减少投资。
因此企业是否投资取决于净现值的正负，而非是否大于1。
6. 未来一笔资金的现值是在当前利率水平下，产生未来资金数量所需的当前资金数量。
（）正确错误答案：正确解析：任何一种未来价值的现值是按现行利率折算的一定量未来价值的现在价值。
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资料打开方法：按住 Ctrl键，在你需要的资料上用鼠标左键单击资料搜索方法：Ctrl+F 输入关键词查找你要的资料【数学】∙01-08数值分析清华大学出版社第四版课后答案∙01-08微分几何第三版梅向明黄敬之主编课后答案∙01-07高等代数与解析几何陈志杰主编第二版课后答案∙01-07高等代数第三版北京大学数学系主编高等教育出版社出版课后答案∙01-07数学分析陈纪修主编第二版课后答案∙01-07数学分析华东师大第三版课后答案∙12-27高等数学同济大学出版社第五版课后答案∙12-08积分变换(第四版)东南大学数学系张元林编高等教育出版社课后答案∙11-30微积分复旦大学出版社曹定华主编课后答案∙11-21人大－吴赣昌－高等数学/微积分（经管类）课后答案∙11-09概率统计简明教程同济版课后答案∙11-09复变函数钟玉泉课后答案∙11-09微积分范培华章学诚刘西垣中国商业出版社课后答案∙11-09线性代数同济大学第四版课后答案∙11-08概率论与数理统计浙大版盛骤谢式千课后答案∙11-08复变函数西安交通大学第四版高等教育出版社课后答案∙11-07离散数学教程肖新攀编著课后习题答案∙11-07离散数学（第三版）清华大学出版社（耿素云，屈婉玲，张立昂）课后习题答案∙11-04高等数学同济大学出版社第六版课后答案∙10-27高等数学北大版课后答案∙【通信/电子/电气/自动化】∙01-08信号与线性系统分析吴大正第4版课后答案∙01-08信号与系统刘泉主编课后答案∙01-08信号与系统奥本海姆英文版课后答案∙01-08数字信号处理吴镇扬高等教育出版社课后答案∙01-08通信原理樊昌信第六版国防大学出版社课后答案∙01-08通信原理北京邮电大学课后答案∙12-10数字逻辑第四版(毛法尧著) 高等教育出版社∙12-10数字逻辑第二版(毛法尧著) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙12-08电路第五版邱关源罗先觉高等教育出版社课后答案∙12-03数字信号处理教程(程佩青第二版) 清华大学出版社课后答案∙12-02数字信号处理教程程佩青（第三版）清华大学出版社课后答案∙11-09模拟电子技术基础童诗白第三版习题答案∙11-09数字电子技术基础阎石第五版课后答案∙11-06信号与系统郑君里主编第二版课后答案∙11-06信号与系统哈工大课后答案∙10-31模拟电子技术基础(第四版童诗白、华成英主编)习题答案∙10-29模拟电路康华光【计算机/网络/信息】∙01-08数据结构(C语言版) 李春葆主编课后答案∙12-05计算机网络教程第五版谢希仁电子工业出版社课后答案∙11-09c程序设计谭浩强主编清华大学出版社习题答案及上机指导∙10-26C语言程序设计教程习题参考答案∙10-26MATLAB程序设计与应用（第二版）刘卫国主编实验答案【经济/金融/营销/管理/电子商务】∙01-06现代西方经济学(宏观）尹伯平主编课后答案∙01-06现代西方经济学(微观经济学) 宋承先主编第3版笔记和课后习题详解∙01-06微观经济学:现代观点范里安主编第5版课后答案∙01-05微观经济学平狄克主编第4和5版笔记和课后习题详解∙01-05宏观经济学曼昆主编第五版课后答案∙01-05宏观经济学多恩布什主编课后习题答案∙01-05企业会计学赵惠芳主编课后答案∙12-05市场调研与预测习题与实例陈启杰上海财经大学出版社课后答案∙11-28西方经济学高鸿业第四版(微观宏观)课后答案∙11-10中级财务会计刘兵初宜红山东人民出版社课后答案∙11-09经济法概论课后答案∙11-08中级财务会计（第二版）刘永泽东北财经大学课后答案【物理/光学/声学/热学/力学】∙01-19机电传动控制华中科技大学出版社邓星钟主编课后答案∙01-05量子力学张永德主编课后答案∙01-04量子力学导论曾谨言著第二版课后答案∙01-04量子力学曾谨言著高等教育出版社第三版第一卷课后答案∙01-04量子力学教程周世勋著高等教育出版社课后答案∙01-04量子力学教程曾谨言著课后答案∙01-04电动力学郭硕鸿主编第三版课后答案∙01-04理论力学卢圣治著课后答案∙01-03理论力学周衍柏著第二版课后答案∙11-09普通物理学程守洙江之咏第五版习题分析与解答∙11-09物理学马文蔚(第五版) 习题分析与解答∙11-09大学基础物理学.2版.清华.张三慧习题答案∙11-06大学物理学赵近芳主编第二版课后答案【土建/机械/车辆/制造/材料】∙01-08机械设计基础(第五版) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙01-07材料力学单辉祖主编课后答案∙01-06材料力学刘鸿文主编哈工大第四版课后答案∙11-11机械原理第六版课后答案【化学/环境/生物/医学/制药】∙01-03高分子化学潘祖仁著第四版课后答案∙01-03物理化学辅导与习题详解第五版傅献彩著∙01-02物理化学南开大学第五版课后答案∙01-02物理化学周亚平天津大学第四版课后答案∙01-02分析化学武汉大学第四版思考题答案∙01-02分析化学武汉大学第四版课后答案∙01-02基础有机化学邢其毅著课后答案∙01-01有机化学莫里森著课后答案∙12-31有机化学（第四版）高鸿宾著课后答案∙12-31有机化学(汪小兰著) 课后答案∙12-31无机化学第三版武汉大学吉林大学编高等教育出版社课后答案∙12-31中级无机化学(朱文祥著) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙12-31无机化学第三版(宋天佑著) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙12-30生物化学解题指导与测验张楚富高等教育出版社课后答案∙12-30生物化学简明教程第四版(张丽萍著) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙12-30生物化学原理(张洪渊著) 科学出版社课后答案∙12-30生物化学第三版(沈同王镜岩著) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙10-31有机化学第三版(胡宏纹著) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙10-29有机化学第四版答案曾昭琼主编高等教育出版社【法学/哲学/心理学/政治学】∙12-29实验心理学杨治良版练习题及答案07年心理学考研∙12-29《心理学》考试题库及答案程素萍浙江大学出版社∙12-29教育心理学第三版(皮连生著) 上海教育出版社课后答案∙12-04毛邓三（2007 华中科技大学版）(毛邓三编写组著) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙11-07毛邓三课后简答题答案∙10-29逻辑学参考答案∙10-26思想道德修养与法律基础罗国杰主编高教版课后答案∙10-26毛泽东思想和中国特色社会主义理论体系概论(吴树青等著) 高等教育出版社课后答案∙10-25马克思主义基本原理概论左伟清华南理工大学出版社课后答案∙10-25毛邓三思考题课后答案【英语/文学/史学/外语/教育】∙01-30step_by_step 2000 第四册听力答案课后答案∙01-30step_by_step 2000 第三册听力答案课后答案∙01-30step_by_step 2000 第二册听力答案课后答案∙01-30step_by_step 2000 第一册听力答案课后答案∙01-09大学体验英语综合教程第四册课后答案及课文翻译∙01-09大学体验英语综合教程第三册课后答案及课文翻译∙01-09大学体验英语综合教程第二册课后答案及课文翻译∙01-09大学体验英语综合教程第一册课后答案及课文翻译∙01-09新视野大学英语第五册课后答案∙01-09新视野大学英语第四册课后答案及课文翻译∙01-09新视野大学英语第三册课后答案及课文翻译∙01-09新视野大学英语第二册课后答案及课文翻译∙01-09新视野大学英语第一册课后答案及课文翻译∙01-05文学理论童庆炳主编修订二版课后答案∙01-05语言学教程胡壮麟主编课后答案[适合背诵]∙11-08中国近代史纲要沙健孙高等教育出版社课后答案∙11-07全新版大学英语综合教程第四册课后答案及课文翻译∙11-07全新版大学英语综合教程第三册课后答案及课文翻译∙11-06全新版大学英语综合教程第二册课后答案及课文翻译∙11-06全新版大学英语综合教程第一册课后答案及课文翻译∙11-06新世纪大学英语综合教程3 课后答案∙11-06新世纪大学英语综合教程2 课后答案∙11-06新世纪大学英语综合教程1 课后答案∙10-25新编大学英语（第一册）习题答案第二版∙10-25新编大学英语(第二册)习题答案∙10-25新编大学英语（第三册）习题答案∙10-25新编大学英语(第四册)课文翻译及课后习题答案。
宏观经济学-布兰查德第六版-第12章
1、失业率u uU L
U—— 失业人口 L—— 总的劳动力人口
Labor force = employed + unemployed L= N + U
失业人口统计： （1）在失业办公室登记的人；（40年代，动机） （2）家庭调查。（现在，较准确）
欧元区与欧盟28国的失业率
EU28
经济学家关注失业率的原因
25
21.3
20
RGDP%
15
10
7.6
5
0
1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-29.7
※支出法： GDP=全社会对当期生产的最终产品的购买支出 GDP=200美元
2、名义GDP与实际GDP
• 名义GDP：以当年价格计算的GDP • 实际GDP：以基年价格计算的GDP
美国的名义GDP、实际GDP
以1995年不变价格计算
当产品的质量 发生改变时，如 何测量实际GDP 是一个困难。
二、其它主要宏观经济变量
（2）通货膨胀率π
• 总体价格水平的变化率 π = Pt – P t-1 P t-1
通货膨胀：总体价格水平的持续上涨 通货紧缩：总体价格水平的持续下降
为什么宏观经济学家关注通货膨胀
• 因为没有所谓的纯粹通货膨胀
（1）在通货膨胀时期，并非所有的价格和工资都是按同比例上 升的，因此，通货膨胀会影响是收入水平。（退休人员） （2）通货膨胀还会导致其它扭曲。相对价格变化导致更多的不 确定性（价格管制）、税收等级调整（税级攀升）等。