经济类外文翻译风险管理幸存者的前车之鉴

原文: （译文在后面）

Report from Davos: Risk Management Survivors Offer Cautionary Tales

Wharton management professor joined heads of state, politicians, CEOs, celebrities and others at this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where, he says, the mood seemed to be one of muted optimism. But, as he points out, there was also a recognition of how much still needs to be done to prevent the kinds of catastrophes -- both natural and created -- that changed the lives of so many individuals over the past two years. Useem, director of Wharton's, offers this report on Davos.

Among the 2,500 business executives, political leaders and others who attended the 2011 meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the mood was one of cautious recuperation from a self-induced, life-threatening illness. The financial crisis had been surmounted but not without lingering frailties, especially the under-employment of the West.

The ongoing political upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt added another crisis to the focus in Davos. The Forum arranged a special session on the unfolding actions in North Africa and the Middle East, and many participants sought frequent updates on the historic events, wondering whether the street protests, in the words of the special session, were a "tipping point or tsunami," and whether they would result in a "soft landing or a bloody one."

Still, cautious optimism prevailed among the national and corporate leaders in Davos that they had taken the right steps for at least the financial recovery. Not all their actions had worked, but on balance they had, and many of these leaders promised now to better prepare their agencies or enterprises to manage future threats in a world that has become ever more subject to low-probability but

high-consequence events.

The Haitian earthquake and BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico served as recent reminders that enormous catastrophes were not only financial -- and that much remained to be done for managing extreme risks in a world more vulnerable than ever to both natural and unnatural calamities. The agenda going

forward: continue to monitor financial institutions and sovereign debt to prevent systemic collapse, build a learning network, redesign the board and rewire the mind.

Continuing Vigilance

Several of the more than 35 national leaders in Davos vowed to use their state powers to avoid any financial relapse. If governments had learned anything from the near death experience of the crisis, it was to more effectively oversee risk takers and their short-term, self-interested decisions.

"We were standing on the brink of an abyss," said French President Nicolas Sarkozy of the financial crisis, "and we had to act." But new perils are now leading toward new brinks, he warned, including the teetering sovereign debt of several European nations and a questioning of the euro. In the wake of the banking crisis, governments must again act boldly to prevent further upheaval. "The euro is Europe," he declared. "We will never let the euro be destroyed."

German Chancellor Angela Merkel added her own defense of the currency, saying it is "the embodiment of Europe today. Should the euro fail, Europe will fail." She also sought tougher oversight of the players that had brought on the financial meltdown to begin with: "I always said there would be a new deck of cards on the table after the crisis," though governments have not yet managed to deal all the right cards. "Do we have the necessary mechanisms in place to ensure sustainable growth globally? We have laid down the groundwork," she stated, "but we are not there yet."

Similarly, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned that, despite six quarters of GDP growth in the U.S., national leaders still had work to do to "take catastrophic risks out of the market." And U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, observing that "given the traumas of recent years, the recovery was always going to be choppy," argued that country officials had no choice but to continue to "modernize and adapt" their economies or otherwise "fall behind and fail."

Other country leaders cited additional perils that required still more measures. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono worried about emerging conflicts over food, fuel and water that threatened to elevate private "greed" over public "need." Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned of the continued "fragility of our condition," brought home just days before by a devastating explosion in the

Moscow airport. But he, too, cautioned that the economic recovery was not yet complete. Many "tend to speak of the end of the world financial crisis," he stated, but "it is quite obvious that it is not all that simple." While "the crisis has sobered up everyone, we have coped with only one part of the symptoms of the crisis, and so far we have not found a model for growth."

Symptomatic of the heightened awareness of risk management, the Prime Minister of Japan, Naoto Kan, referenced the English utilitarian philosopher Jeremy Bentham's principle of creating the "greatest happiness" for the "greatest number." In an era in which the downsides of risk have become more severe, he said that the Japanese government under his leadership, by contrast, would stress policies that generate not the "greatest happiness" -- but rather "a society with the least unhappiness" -- for the greatest number.

Building a Learning Network

Given the global financial crisis and the devastating events in Haiti and the Gulf, it came as no surprise that the World Economic Forum, under the continuing leadership of founder Klaus Schwab, turned the spotlight at this year's 41st annual meeting on both the principles and strategies of risk management. The Forum launched a new (RRN), an initiative to identify leading global risks and to better equip public, private and non-profit leaders with shared means for preventing, anticipating or responding to the risks.

As part of the RRN initiative, an annual Global Risks report, already in its sixth year, will continue to rank global perils as one pillar of the new network (the collaborates in the annual report's preparation). At the top of the report's ranking this year were the two inter-related risks of economic disparities and failing governance. The report warned that the benefits of globalization have not been evenly shared, and when combined with unresponsive or ineffective regimes, "resurgent nationalism and populism" are a likely product. Evidently, it was just those factors in toxic combination that played a major role in stimulating the popular revolt against the long-serving but poorly governed regimes in Tunisia and Egypt.

Two other RRN initiatives announced in Davos were intended to furnish country, company and NGO leaders with better tools for appraising risks and responding to disasters. A new Leading Practices

Exchange will provide them with guidance on how to manage and mitigate risks. And a Community of Risk Officers will establish a network for mutual learning and peer counseling among those at the forefront of risk management. The first risks to be tackled by the new network include currency volatility, cyber security and resource scarcity, with others to be added.

With this initiative, the World Economic Forum has created an on-going platform to give those engaged in risk management better access to detailed data, proven practices and experienced players.

By way of one example: A physician at the Davos meeting who had been active in recovery from the Haitian earthquake reported that in some areas, relief agencies provided fresh water to survivors free of charge, while in others a modest charge was imposed. The latter practice would help ration and allocate a still scarce resource, vital for recovery. But the physician found that cholera spread far more often through camps that charged for water than through camps that didn't charge, evidently because even a small cost led survivors to use less water in personal hygiene and food preparation. While charging a nominal amount for potable water made good economic sense, the experience here called into question whether it made public health sense.

Redesigning the Board

The governing board is potentially one of the most pivotal places for the introduction of risk management practices in the view of those attending an annual-meeting session on "Redesigning the Board." Chaired by Berkeley professor Laura D'Andrea Tyson, who serves on the boards of several publicly traded companies, the dialogue drew on the experience of Donald J. Gogel, CEO of Clayton, Dubilier & Rice; Richard Haythornthwaite, chair of MasterCard Worldwide; Kevin Kelly, CEO, Heidrick & Struggles; Davide Serra, managing partner of Algebris Investments, and Daniel Vasella, chair of Novartis.

Leaving aside the question of whether company boards contributed to the recent financial crisis, the boardroom could serve as a barricade against the next crisis -- if properly redesigned. The board's traditional focus has been on "compliance, control and compensation," fulfilling the oversight function mandated by both government regulators and listing requirements. But that is no longer sufficient, suggested several panel members. Directors should also be engaged in "company strategy, talent

development and risk management." It is a matter of not only "feeding the beast" -- providing investors with expected quarterly returns -- but also "building the business" -- advising executives on strategic direction and appropriate risk.

To that end, directors should bring not just oversight capabilities to the boardroom. They should also be ready to challenge management practices, exercise independent judgment and resist when executive actions pose excessive risk. It goes the other way, too, suggested one veteran board member: "The worst thing is when a management team does not speak out." Directors, another participant pointed out, "want management to speak up with its concerns." For both sides to speak up, however, smaller boards make better forums. "Seven to eight people can debate strategy," noted one governance veteran, "the way a board of 15 cannot."

If boards were once more ceremonial than substantive, more honorary than productive, that is a dying tradition in an era when directors are increasingly called -- or demand -- to serve as strategic advisors. Several directors reported that their boards regularly conduct 360-degree feedback surveys of one another, inviting company executives to appraise their individual performance as well. One board chair even interviews every board member, asking for their appraisals of the other directors, and he then circles back with feedback, commending each director for his or her contribution to the boardroom but also citing one area for the director's "improvement." Another director with extensive boardroom experience found that the one best question to ask of each director about the others is, "If you were the only shareholder of the company, would you want this person on the board?"

If well redesigned, company boards can thus help their companies in "a race to the top" -- building long-term value and avoiding excessive short-term risks -- rather than permitting a "race to the bottom" that had driven some companies into the cauldron of the crisis. In another session, JPMorgan Chase CEO James Dimon reported that his own board had played just such a role when the more recent European sovereign crises materialized. With billions of dollars of European exposure and short-term losses likely, his board had advised against pulling back. "Let's be rational and careful," he said the directors told him. "We're in Europe for the long term, we serve a lot of European companies," and staying invested despite the crisis was the right thing to do.

Rewiring the Mind

For individuals, there are few better opportunities for re-thinking risk management than those offered by studying one's own setbacks as well as the experiences of others. The annual meeting was fortunate to have included panels on "The Merits of Failure" and "Exploring the Extremes;" a session with Chesley Sullenberger, the USAir pilot who safely landed his aircraft in the Hudson River after both engines failed; and an event with adventurer Alison Levine, who has reached the South Pole, North Pole, and Mt. Everest summit.

Working in extremely high stakes environments requires taking calculated risks, the antithesis of recklessness that had driven the sub-prime mortgage lending that sparked the financial crisis. And when critical decision points are reached -- going for a dangerous summit, landing a stricken aircraft -- a total focus on the task at hand and the ability to draw on a lifetime of experience are vital for surmounting the perils of the moment.

Cautionary Lessons for Managing Risk

Among the more unforgettable personal lessons from the World Economic Forum's focus this year on managing risk in a more risky world: Will-power is essential, calculate the risks, and focus on the goal at hand however stressful the moment -- whether restoring an economy, avoiding default, landing an aircraft or climbing a summit. And among the more enduring company and country lessons: Complacency will kill you, good governance is essential, and learn from others' mistakes to avoid your own.

The annual meeting in Davos served to reinforce a host of such messages. Between meetings, its Risk Response Network, Leading Practices Exchange and Community of Risk Officers will continue the Forum's efforts to provide better ways to anticipate, mitigate, and even prevent catastrophic risks from becoming the kinds of disasters that we have witnessed in the financial crisis, Haiti, the Gulf and beyond.

译文:

达沃斯报告：风险管理幸存者的前车之鉴

今年，各国政府首脑、政界精英、企业总裁及各界名人齐聚瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛，沃顿商学院管理学教授、沃顿领导力与变革管理中心主任迈克尔·尤西姆（Michael Useem）在论坛上表示，论坛期间涌动着谨慎乐观的情绪。但是，他随即指出，在过去两年内，各种自然灾害和人为灾难改变了许多人的生活，因此仍有许多工作要做以免悲剧重演，与会者对此均已达成共识。尤西姆就本次达沃斯论坛发表了这份报告。

2011年，2,500位商界领导和政治人物出席了达沃斯世界经济论坛，论坛期间涌动着宛如大病初愈后的谨慎复苏的情绪。金融危机已经克服，但是经济形势仍不容乐观，特别是西方国家的就业不足问题。

突尼斯和埃及最近发生的政变，则为达沃斯论坛增加了另一个危机主题。就北非和中东的抗议行动，论坛专门安排了一场特别会议，许多参会者不时要求获得此次历史事件的最新消息，同时思考这些街头抗议行动是否会成为特别会议所谓的“引爆点或海啸”，以及是否会导致“软着陆或血腥镇压”。

然而，出席达沃斯论坛的国家和企业领导者普遍持有谨慎乐观的态度，至少，他们在经济复苏方面采取的是正确的措施。并非所有的措施都是奏效的，但总体而言是有效果的，而且许多领导者在此承诺，让他们的部门或企业做好更加充足的准备，更加有效地应对未来的危机，因为当今世界越来越受到一些概率不高但后果严重的事件的影响。

海地地震灾害以及英国石油公司的墨西哥湾漏油事故给世人敲响了警钟，这些事件表示，许多巨大的灾难不限于金融危机，而且在管理全球极端风险方面，仍有许多工作要做，尤其是在这个世界比以往任何时候都更加容易受到自然灾害

和人为灾难破坏的时候。会议议程对将来进行了展望：继续对金融机构和主权债务进行监测以免发生系统崩溃、建立学习网络、重新规划董事会、重新梳理思路。警钟长鸣

在出席达沃斯论坛的三十多位国家领导人当中，有几位领导人坚决表示会动用国家权力，以防止金融危机卷土重来。如果政府从危机中汲取了生死攸关的教训的话，他们将会更加有效地监督风险承担者及其短期的自利决策。

“我们临渊而立，”法国总统尼古拉·萨科奇就经济危机说道，“我们必须采取行动。”但是新的危机正在将我们引入新的深渊，他警告道，包括若干欧洲国家岌岌可危的主权债务以及对欧元前景的质疑。紧随金融危机之后，政府必须再次大刀阔斧地采取行动，防止出现进一步动荡局面。“欧元是欧洲的命脉，”他说道，“我们绝不能让欧元遭到破坏。”

德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)也表示要坚决扞卫欧元，称欧元是“现代欧洲的象征。欧元亡则欧洲亡。”她还要求对一开始引发金融危机的机构加强监督，“我再三强调，在危机过后必须重新洗牌，”但是政府尚未能够将牌全部理顺。“我们是否具备了必要的机制，来确保全球的可持续增长？我们已经打好了基础，”她说道，“但是我们还没有落实到位。”

同样地，美国财政部长蒂莫西·盖特纳也警告说，虽然美国实现了六个季度的GDP增长，但是国家领导人仍然需要做大量工作，来“将巨灾风险从市场清理干净。”英国首相戴维·卡梅伦注意到，“鉴于近年来经济饱受创伤，因此，经济复苏

之路将会比较坎坷，”他指出，政府官员已经别无选择，必须使经济“实现现代化并顺势而为”，否则就会“落后和失败。”

各国政府首脑也指出了不同的危机，以及仍然需要采取更多的措施来解决这些危机。印度尼西亚总统苏西洛担心粮食、能源、水资源不足引发的冲突，有可能会将私人的“贪欲”上升至公共“需求”。俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫警告说，“我们的状况”仍旧一如既往地“脆弱不堪”，前几天，国内又发生莫斯科机场爆炸惨剧。但是，他同时告诫道，经济复苏仍未完成。很多人“放言说全球经济危机已经告终，”他指出，“但是，情况显然没有那么简单。”虽然“经济危机敲醒了所有人，但我们应对的只是危机的一部分症状，而且到目前为止，我们还没有找到一个发展模式。”

在提高对风险管理症状的意识方面，日本首相菅直人引用了英国功利主义哲学家杰里米·边沁的理论：为“最大多数人”创造“最大的幸福”。当今社会，风险的负面影响日益严重，而在他的领导下，日本政府将把重点放在一些政策上，这些政策不是为最大多数民众带来“最大的幸福”，而是“将社会的不满减少到最低程度”。

建立学习网络

由于全球经济危机和海地及海湾的灾难事件，因此，在世界经济论坛创始人克劳斯·施瓦布的继续领导下，论坛将今年第41届会议的主题聚焦于风险管理的原则和策略方面。论坛推出了全新的“风险应对网络”(RRN)，这项计划旨在确定全球的主要风险，让公共部门、私营部门和非营利组织的领导者，更好地使用相同的方法来预防、预测或应对风险。

作为风险应对网络计划的一部分，已经连续发布了六年的年度全球风险报告将继续对全球风险进行排名，这也是新建网络的重要内容之一(沃顿商学院风险管理与决策过程研究中心协同制定年度报告)。今年在报告中排名最前的是两个相互关连的风险即经济差异和治理失败。报告指出，全球化的效益尚未得到平均分享，而且在和没有响应或效率低下的机制相结合时，很可能会产生“民族主义和民粹主义”。很显然，正是在这种有害的结合中的这些因素的刺激下，民众开始反抗，试图推翻突尼斯和埃及国内长期存在但治理不佳的体制。

达沃斯论坛还推出了其他两个风险应对网络计划，旨在为国家、企业和非政府组织领导者提供更好的工具，来进行风险评估和灾难应对。新的“领先实践交流”将为他们提供关于如何管理和减轻风险的指导。“风险执行官社区”将建立一个相互学习和同行咨询的网络社区，研讨风险管理的前沿问题。新的网络社区将要首先处理的风险包括汇率波动性、网络安全和资源稀缺等。

依托这项计划，世界经济论坛已建立了持续运作的平台，让那些参与风险管理的人员更好地获得详细的数据、经实践证明有效的做法以及经验丰富的参与者。

举例来讲，在达沃斯论坛会议上，一位在海地地震期间积极参与灾区重建工作的医生在报告中指出，在一些地区，救援机构向幸存者提供免费淡水，在另一些地区，对发放淡水收取少量费用。后者的做法可以帮助解决稀缺资源的合理分配问题，这些资源对于灾后重建是至关重要的。但是医生发现，和免费发放淡水的营地相比，发放收费淡水的营地的霍乱疫情要严重得多，很显然，即使收取很少的费用，也会让幸存者减少在个人卫生和烹制食物时的用水量。虽然针对饮用

水收取象征性的费用具有良好的经济意义，但是事实上，这种做法在公共卫生方面是否具有意义仍是一个问号。

重新规划董事会

在参加“重新规划董事会”讨论会的人看来，管理董事会可能是推进风险管理实践的最关键所在。该讨论会的主席为加州大学伯克利分校教授Laura D'Andrea Tyson，他还是多家上市公司的董事会成员。会上有各家企业总裁展开对话和经验交流，其中包括Clayton, Dubilier & Rice的首席执行官Donald J. Gogel、万事达卡国际组织董事长Richard Haythornthwaite、海德思哲咨询公司(Heidrick & Struggles)首席执行官Kevin Kelly、Algebris投资公司的执行合伙人Davide Serra、以及诺华公司(Novartis)董事长Daniel Vasella。

即使不谈公司董事会是否是造就最近的金融危机的原因，但是如果能对董事会进行适当的重新规划，董事会还是能为抵挡下一次危机做出贡献的。一直以来，董事会的工作重点是“合规、控制及报酬，”即符合监管部门的规定和上市公司必须具备的各项要求。但是，仅做到这些是不够的。与会成员指出，各位董事还应当参与“公司战略、人才发展和风险管理”，即不仅仅是要“喂饱野兽”，即为投资者提供预期的季度回报，还要“发展业务”，即向高层管理者提供有关战略方向和风险的建议。

为此，董事们不但要具备监管能力，还要随时能够挑战管理实践、锻炼独立判断能力，以及当管理行为造成过多风险时进行抵制。也可能产生另外一种情况，一位资深的董事会成员说道：“最糟糕的情况就是管理层没有大声说出意见。”另一位与会者指出，“希望管理层将问题大声说出来。”但是，对于将要大声发言的

双方而言，规模较小的董事会论坛的效果更佳。“七到八个人可以讨论战略，”一位公司治理专家指出，“而15个人的董事会这么做就不行。”

董事们越来越多地被要求作为战略顾问而存在，在这样的一个时代，如果董事会更多的是形式上的而非实质性的，更多的是名誉性的而非有实际成果的，那么这就是一个垂死的传统体系。多个董事指出，他们所在的董事会定期相互进行全方位反馈调查，并邀请公司高层来对他们的个人绩效进行评测。有一位董事长甚至对董事会成员进行逐一访谈，询问他们对其他董事的测评情况，然后回过头来使用反馈资料，就各位董事对董事会的贡献提出表扬，同时也指出各位董事需要“改进”的某个方面。另一位拥有丰富的董事会经验的董事发现，向每一位董事提出的一个最佳问题就是，“如果你是公司唯一的股东，你想让这个人留在董事会吗？”

如果重新规划得当，董事会可以在公司“力争上游”过程中助上一臂之力，树立长期价值观，避免过多的短期风险，而不是眼睁睁地看着公司在“力争下游”中陷入重重危机。在另一场会议上，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，当最近出现欧洲主权债务危机的时候，他的董事会就是担当这样的角色。随着欧洲数十亿美元的风险的出现以及可能发生的短期亏损，他的董事会再次建议紧缩开支。“我们必须做到理性和谨慎，”他的董事们如是说，“我们对欧洲采取的是长期战略，我们是为许多欧洲企业服务的，”即便存在经济危机，也要保持投资状态，这是完全正确的。

重新梳理思路

对个人而言，和那些可以对自身遭遇的挫折和其他人的经验进行研究的人相比，很少人能有机会对风险管理进行反思。本次年度会议有幸纳入了两场主题研

讨会“引擎失灵后的功勋”(The Merits of Failure)以及“探索极限”(Exploring the Extremes)，这场研讨会的讨论主题是全美机长切斯利·萨伦伯格的英勇事迹，在飞机的两个发动机全部失灵的情况下，驾驶飞机在哈德逊河紧急迫降；另外一

个主题则是探险家艾莉森·莱文的事迹，她曾经滑雪到南极和北极，攀登过珠穆朗玛峰。

在极端的高风险环境下工作需要对风险进行精心计算，这与次贷危机中的盲

目行事是截然不同的，而次贷危机也是引爆金融危机的导火索。在面临重要决策

的时刻，比如攀登危险的顶峰，操控一架引擎失灵的飞机紧急迫降，全神贯注于

眼前的任务，同时利用毕生积累的重要经验，这些能力对于战胜眼前的危机是至

关重要的。

风险管理的前车之鉴

今年的世界经济论坛列举了许多令人难忘的个人经验教训，其重点是如何在危机重重的背景下管理风险：意志力是必需的，对风险要进行精密计算，还要专注

于眼前的目标，无论此时此刻的压力有多么巨大，这对于经济的复苏、预防故障

的发生、操控飞机紧急迫降、或是攀登高峰无一例外。而那些持久不衰的企业和

国家，他们提供的经验教训就是：满足现状是致命的，良好的治理是必需的，要

从其他人的错误中汲取教训，以免重蹈覆辙。

在达沃斯举行的年度大会旨在对这类信息予以强化。在各场研讨会之中，风险应对网络、领先实践交流以及风险执行官的网络都将延续论坛的这种精神，致力

于提供更好的方法来预测、减轻、乃至避免灾难性风险的发生，使得我们亲眼目睹的金融危机、在海地及在海湾地区发生的灾难不再重演。