指数平滑预测

月份

3 years ago 2 years ago １ ｙｅａｒ ａｇｏ

１．简单移动平均３个月

２.加权移动平均３.指数平滑４.调整后指数平滑Jan 501526.0510.01063.0Feb 376.0394.0383.0765.3612.2620.6510.0Mar 1377.01446.01403.01233.0867.5430.5178.6Apri 1878.01972.01913.01488.01492.31208.5316.3May 1127.01183.01148.01318.01568.81772.1445.9Jun 876.0920.0893.0956.71036.41272.8318.8Jul 814.0854.0829.0786.7838.8969.0242.4Aug 626.0657.0638.01211.7982.1857.0214.3Sep 2128.02235.02168.01445.31154.3681.8170.5Oct 1502.01578.01530.01466.31788.51870.8467.7Nov 689.0723.0701.0955.71188.71598.2399.5Dec

626.0658.0636.0880.4220.1Ｔｏｔａｌ

12520.013146.0

12752.0

11626.7

11529.4

13224.6

3484.0

↑ α＝０.２

↑　α＝β＝０.２

季度→

12

3

4

季度需求三点滑动季节性指标年份↓122543年前

1.199938163 1.0426651080.965718204238813234.333333 1.1999381632年前

0.76668827 1.188393118 1.0604779410.97538732335683422 1.0426651081年前

0.747963948 1.2

1.0429418524281729170.965718204季节性指标0.757326109 1.196110427 1.0486949670.970552762123663086

0.76668827校正后指标0.762533399 1.204334749 1.0559056770.977226175240753395.666667 1.200058899337463593.333333 1.042486085季度需求a

b

c

429593000.3333330.98622375303209.833333191.8888889122963069.6666670.74796394812305.3333333288.182222169.18088880.756389718239543295

1.2

239703409.081883159.5246432 1.200354916336353485.333333

1.042941852

336833544.424852154.6883084 1.05422477542867

4

2881

3473.821343

109.6299449

0.962438162

季度（预测）

12710.48570824433.00821334008.9123344

3765.386399总数

14917.79265

轮胎厂需求预测

预测方法

３年前

２年前

１年前