SCM-4 The value of information-Bullwhip effect

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富山牌工业缝纫机说明书

为了您的安全使用 Safety Instructions
1.安全使用的标记及其意义 Safety indications and their meanings
本使用说明书及产品所使用的标记和图案记号是为了您的安全而正确的使用产品，防止您及其他人受到危害和损害。表示方法机含义如下 This instruction manual and the indications and symbols that are used on the machine itself are provided in order to ensure safe operation of this machine and to prevent accidents and injury to yourself or other people.
安装 Installation
请让受过培训的技术人员来安装缝纫机。
请委托购买商店货电气专业人员进行电气配线。
缝纫机重量约 50Kg，安装工作必须由两人以上来完成。
在安装完成前，请不要连接电源，如果误按启动开关，缝纫机动作会导致受伤。
请在切断电源后，再拔掉电插头。不然易成为控制箱发生故障的原因。
工业缝纫机的特性之一，因为要在机针和旋梭等运动部件附近进行操作，而这些零部件很容易引起受伤的危险，所以请在受过培训的人或熟练人员的安全操作知识的指导下，正确的使用本缝纫机。 With industrial sewing machines, it is normal to carry out work while positioned directly in front of moving parts such as the needle and thread take-up, and consequently there is always a danger of injury that can be caused operation before operating the machine so that you will know how to use it correctly.

04《物流专业英语》-Unit-4-How-supply-chains-work-第三版新编

(vendor-managed inventory)
inbound logistics 内向物流 intra-org logistics 企业物
流内部
outbound logistics 外向物流
第二部分 Section 2
本单元核心概念 Core concepts
What is SCM?
SCM分为三个主要的流：产品流或材料流包括包括商品从供应商向客户的移动，也
包括处理客户的服务需求。信息流包括订单信息及交付状况。金流包括付款时间安排表，赊账条款以及追加安排
The Bullwhip Effect “牛鞭效应”
The bullwhip effect (or whiplash effect) is an observed phenomenon in forecast-driven distribution channels. It refers to a trend of larger and larger swings in inventory in response to changes in demand. The concept first appeared in Jay Forrester's Industrial Dynamics (1961) and thus it is also known as the Forrester effect. Since the oscillating demand upstream a supply chain is reminiscent of a cracking whip, it became known as the bullwhip effect.
牛鞭效应通常是由于供应链内管理不当的实体误读或者误算了实际所需求的产品量所致，随着牛鞭效应的发生，就会出现成本增加以及客户不满意的情况。效率低下的沟通、订单计量以及经济不景气也常常会导致牛鞭效应。

LSEG World-Check One 客户对手风险识别系统说明书

of Politically Exposed Person (PEP) relationships and networks, and is customisable to identify a variety of specific third-party risks.The platform enables:−Advanced name-matching algorithms−Rich data−Secondary matching−Fewer false positives−Faster match resolution−Batch upload−Ongoing rescreening−Superior relevant media content screening Leverage LSEG World-Check, software and servicesWorld-Check One combines World-Check with the next generation of screening software. The software is built to maximise our proprietary World-Check data, capitalising on the powerof multiple secondary identifiers and additional information fields. With Enhanced Due Diligence reports and our Screening Resolution Service, organisations can focus on the recordsthat matter most.Screening software designed for World-Check−LSEG World-Check−Single name checks for manual name checking−Initial and ongoing screening of millions of records−Batch Screening−API with Zero Footprint Screening−A user interface available in multiple languages−Watchlist Screening that enables the user to upload in-house and third-party lists to screen against −Media Check AI-powered negative media screening tool, which pinpoints the media content most relevant to helping you meet your regulatory and legislative compliance requirements also available as an optional add-on via the World-Check One API−Identify Ultimate Beneficial OwnershipPowered by market-leading Dun & Bradstreet UBO data, our opt-in feature UBO Check lets you search and screen for regulatory and reputational risk with World-Check Risk Intelligence, all on one platform−Improved workflowOur enhanced case management functionality facilitates better visibility and improved breakdownof records, to help speed up the remediation process−Vessel due diligenceWith IHS Maritime data, check vessels for ownership structure and IMOs, and screen for any sanction and/or regulatory risk with World-Check all on our Vessel Check feature−Identity VerificationIdentity Check enables organisations to verify the identity of individuals and businesses through adata-based identity verification approach, utilising independent and authoritative identity data sources.World-Check One benefits More precision World-Check One enables greater customisation and control at name-matching level to screen against specific lists and data sets, or specific fields within those data sets, such as gender, nationality and date of birth.Lowering false positives When combined with the configurable name-matching algorithms and filtering technology in World-Check One, multiple secondary identifiers in World-Check help to reduce false positives.Intelligent teamwork The case management tool enables managers to define customised workflow to route cases to the right individuals and specialist teams, thereby reducing cycle times, promoting speed and efficiency, and giving teams more time to focus on investigations of the highest concern.Get more done with less World-Check One is designed to reduce the burden of daily customer screening. Its customisable searches, reduced false positives, ongoing screening capability and improved workflow reduce cycle times.Streamline the screening processOur World-Check One API facilitates the integration oflarge volumes of information and advanced functionalities into existing workflows and internal systems. Thisincreases the operational efficiency of the screeningprocess for onboarding, Know Your Customer (KYC) and third-party risk due diligence.One solution to screen multiple listsWatchlist Screening allows users to upload internaland third-party lists to World-Check One and apply thematching logic to all data sets, ensuring minimisation offalse positives and consistency of results.More precise media screeningNegative media forms part of a best practice approach to customer due diligence and ongoing risk assessment. AI delivers next-generation media screening of unstructured media, along with improved relevancy of results andworkflow integration, to enable better decision-making.Audit trail* and reporting capabilitiesWorld-Check One provides an extensive auditingcapability, with date-stamped actions for the matchresolution process. It includes detailed reports that canbe used as part of management reporting and regulatory proof of due diligence.World-Check One delivers a more efficient approachBalancing the regulatory and operational burden requires organisations to take a more targeted approach towards customer due diligence. Firms often have to do more with less. They require moreefficiency from the tools, technology and operations that support customer due diligence.*Not applicable for clients that do not require an audit trail.World-Check One leveragesWorld-CheckFind hidden risk in business relationships and human networks.World-Check provides trusted information to help businesses comply with regulations and identify potential financial crime. Since its inception, World-Check has served the KYC and third-party screening needs of the world’s largest firms, simplifying day-to-day onboarding and monitoring decisions, and helping businesses comply with anti-money laundering and countering financing of terrorism legislation. World-Check data is sourced from the public domain, deduplicated, structured into individual reports and linked to associations or human networks. Each action is underpinned by a meticulous, regulated research process.In addition to 100 percent sanctions coverage, additional risk-based information is sourced from extensive global media research by more than 400 research analysts working in over 65 languages, covering 240 countries. Information is collated from an extensive network of thousands of reputable sources, including 700+ sanction, watch, regulatory and law enforcement lists, local and international government records, country-specific data sources, international adverse electronic and physical media searches, and English and foreign language data sources.Sophisticated softwareA unified platform approach to customer due diligence.Our highly scalable solution is built for single users or large teams to support a carefully targeted approach to screening during KYC onboarding, ongoing monitoring and rescreening cycles. The system makes remediation quicker and more intelligent, and is adaptable to meet regulation changes.Additional servicesWe help organisations to optimise their resources and reduce operational cost.Screening Resolution Service – Our service highlights positive and possible matches for any customer identification programme detecting heightened risk individuals and entities, screened againstWorld-Check.By using a managed service like Screening Resolution Service, you can reduce your cost of compliance and free up departments to focus their efforts on activities such as tracking and implementing regulatory change. LSEG Due Diligence Reports – Use our Due Diligence reports to help you comply with anti-money laundering, anti-bribery and corruption regulations, or ahead of a merger, acquisition or joint venture. Y ou can also use them for third-party risk assessment, onboarding decision-making and identifying beneficial ownership structures.Using only ethical and non-intrusive research methods, LSEG is committed to principles of integrity and accountability. Subjects are not aware when we carry out an investigation, and we never misrepresent our activities. LSEG has a dedicated risk and control team that performs regular audits of the service, and external accreditation to ISAE 3000 standard through Schellman & Company, LLC.LSEG World-Check One for Salesforce – World-Check One for Salesforce connects your customer and third-party data from Salesforce with our proprietary World-Check to help you decide whether to onboard the vast majority of entities being screened or use further due diligence.Collaboration toolsEnhanced enterprise-level case management capabilities facilitate work on cases with assigned colleagues and teams when investigating risk, to ensure all decisions and discussions are captured as part of your audit trail. Secondary matchingApply secondary matching rules at list level based on your approach. Greater control enables reduced false positives. User experienceProven user interface promotes minimum user interaction.Cross-team communicationLanguage capabilities, ideal for multinational companies and team remediation.Prove due diligenceEach step of the screening process is tracked and saved for auditing purposes. T o satisfy regulatory demands, organisations can retrieve a detailed report showing the decision-making process and the individuals involved during every stage of the remediation process.World-Check One’s easy-to-use interface helps compliance teams work more efficiently.454312LDA3267049/10-23。

harmonization system code

harmonization system code "Harmonization System Code: Simplifying Global Trade for a Seamless Future"Introduction:In today's interconnected world, international trade has become a vital component of economic growth and development. With the rapid advancement of technology, the need for a standardized system to facilitate trade has become increasingly crucial. The harmonization system code, also known as the Harmonized System (HS) code, proves to be the answer, revolutionizing global trade and connecting nations across the globe. In this article, we will delve into the details of the HS code, its significance in simplifying global trade, and the step-by-step process behind this harmonious system.Chapter 1: Understanding the Harmonized System Code1.1 What is the Harmonized System Code?The Harmonized System Code is an internationally recognizedstandard classification system used to classify and categorize products for import-export purposes. It assigns each product a unique numerical code, helping customs officials worldwide identify and regulate goods entering and exiting their territories.1.2 The Origin and Evolution of the Harmonized System CodeThe HS code was first introduced by the World Customs Organization (WCO) in 1988. It builds upon previous classification systems, incorporating the World Trade Organization (WTO) principles to accommodate the changing dynamics of international trade. Over time, the HS code has undergone multiple revisions to reflect the evolving product landscape.Chapter 2: The Significance of the Harmonized System Code2.1 Simplifying International Trade ProceduresThe HS code simplifies trade procedures by providing a standardized language for merchandise description. This uniformity streamlines customs clearance, reduces processing time, and minimizes potential errors or disputes. Consequently,businesses can navigate cross-border transactions more efficiently, contributing to increased economic growth.2.2 Facilitating Statistical Analysis and ResearchThe HS code facilitates statistical analysis by governments, organizations, and researchers. By tracking imports and exports accurately, it enables data-driven policy-making, identifying emerging trade patterns, and promoting informeddecision-making. This information becomes vital in understanding market trends, assessing economic performance, and formulating targeted strategies.Chapter 3: The Step-by-Step Process behind Harmonization System Code3.1 Step 1: Identification and DescriptionTo assign the appropriate HS code to a product, detailed identification and description are necessary. The process involves determining the product's characteristics, composition, end-use, and function. This information allows classification specialists toidentify the primary nature of the goods and select the most appropriate code accordingly.3.2 Step 2: Conducting ResearchWith the identification established, research becomes crucial. Classifiers must explore various sources, including official publications, reference books, databases, and online resources, to find the most accurate and up-to-date information regarding the product. Understanding any specific provisions or exclusions related to the goods is vital to proper classification.3.3 Step 3: Analyzing Classification RulesThe HS code utilizes specific classification rules to determine product categories. Classifiers employ these rules to analyze the characteristics of the goods and match them with the corresponding HS code. The process involves assessing essential factors such as materials used, product composition, and the primary intended use.3.4 Step 4: Determining the SubheadingOnce the primary HS code is assigned, further refinement occurs. Classifiers review additional subdivisions within the code known as subheadings to provide detailed information. These subheadings help customs officials and traders obtain a more accurate understanding of the specific product characteristics and trade restrictions, if any.3.5 Step 5: Applying National Regulations and AmendmentsAlthough the HS code classification is an international standard, individual countries may impose certain regulations and amendments. Classifiers must consider these national regulations while applying the HS code, ensuring compliance with specific requirements dictated by the importing or exporting country.Conclusion:The harmonization system code revolutionizes global trade by reducing complexity and streamlining procedures. Its significance lies in establishing a common language for governments,businesses, and organizations involved in international trade. The step-by-step process of identifying, researching, analyzing, and assigning the appropriate HS code ensures a standardized framework and promotes seamless trade across borders. As we move towards a more interconnected future, the HS code will continue to play a vital role in simplifying global trade for the benefit of all stakeholders involved.。

mt4中文帮助命令中文手册

MQL4 Reference MQL4命令手册（本手册采用Office2007编写）2010年2月目录MQL4 Reference (1)MQL4命令手册 (1)Basics基础 (12)Syntax语法 (12)Comments注释 (12)Identifiers标识符 (12)Reserved words保留字 (13)Data types数据类型 (13)Type casting类型转换 (14)Integer constants整数常量 (14)Literal constants字面常量 (14)Boolean constants布尔常量 (15)Floating-point number constants (double)浮点数常量（双精度） (15)String constants字符串常量 (15)Color constants颜色常数 (16)Datetime constants日期时间常数 (16)Operations & Expressions操作表达式 (17)Expressions表达式 (17)Arithmetical operations算术运算 (17)Assignment operation赋值操作 (17)Operations of relation操作关系 (18)Boolean operations布尔运算 (18)Bitwise operations位运算 (19)Other operations其他运算 (19)Precedence rules优先规则 (20)Operators操作符 (21)Compound operator复合操作符 (21)Expression operator表达式操作符 (21)Break operator终止操作符 (21)Continue operator继续操作符 (22)Return operator返回操作符 (22)Conditional operator if-else条件操作符 (23)Switch operator跳转操作符 (23)Cycle operator while循环操作符while (24)Cycle operator for循环操作符for (24)Functions函数 (25)Function call函数调用 (26)Special functions特殊函数 (27)Variables变量 (27)Local variables局部变量 (28)Formal parameters形式变量 (28)Static variables静态变量 (29)Global variables全局变量 (29)Defining extern variables外部定义变量 (30)Initialization of variables初始化变量 (30)External functions definition外部函数的定义 (30)Preprocessor预处理 (31)Constant declaration常量声明 (31)Controlling compilation编译控制 (32)Including of files包含文件 (32)Importing of functions导入功能 (33)Standard constants标准常数 (35)Series arrays系列数组 (35)Timeframes图表周期时间 (35)Trade operations交易操作 (36)Price constants价格常数 (36)MarketInfo市场信息识别符 (36)Drawing styles画线风格 (37)Arrow codes预定义箭头 (38)Wingdings宋体 (39)Web colors颜色常数 (39)Indicator lines指标线 (40)Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (41)Moving Average methods移动平均方法 (41)MessageBox信息箱 (41)Object types对象类型 (43)Object properties对象属性 (44)Object visibility (45)Uninitialize reason codes撤销初始化原因代码 (45)Special constants特别常数 (46)Error codes错误代码 (46)Predefined variables预定义变量 (50)Ask最新卖价 (50)Bars柱数 (50)Bid最新买价 (50)Close[]收盘价 (51)Digits汇率小数位 (51)High[]最高价 (51)Low[]最低价 (52)Open[]开盘价 (53)Point点值 (53)Time[]开盘时间 (53)Volume[]成交量 (54)Program Run程序运行 (56)Program Run程序运行 (56)Imported functions call输入函数调用 (57)Runtime errors运行错误 (57)Account information账户信息 (68)AccountBalance( )账户余额 (68)AccountCredit( )账户信用点数 (68)AccountCompany( )账户公司名 (68)AccountCurrency( )基本货币 (68)AccountEquity( )账户资产净值 (68)AccountFreeMargin( )账户免费保证金 (69)AccountFreeMarginCheck()账户当前价格自由保证金 (69)AccountFreeMarginMode( )账户免费保证金模式 (69)AccountLeverage( )账户杠杆 (69)AccountMargin( )账户保证金 (69)AccountName( )账户名称 (70)AccountNumber( )账户数字 (70)AccountProfit( )账户利润 (70)AccountServer( )账户连接服务器 (70)AccountStopoutLevel( )账户停止水平值 (70)AccountStopoutMode( )账户停止返回模式 (71)Array functions数组函数 (72)ArrayBsearch()数组搜索 (72)ArrayCopy()数组复制 (72)ArrayCopyRates()数组复制走势 (73)ArrayCopySeries()数组复制系列走势 (74)ArrayDimension()返回数组维数 (75)ArrayGetAsSeries()返回数组序列 (75)ArrayInitialize()数组初始化 (75)ArrayIsSeries()判断数组连续 (75)ArrayMaximum()数组最大值定位 (76)ArrayMinimum()数组最小值定位 (76)ArrayRange()返回数组指定维数数量 (76)ArrayResize()改变数组维数 (77)ArraySetAsSeries()设定系列数组 (77)ArraySize()返回数组项目数 (78)ArraySort()数组排序 (78)Checkup检查 (79)GetLastError( )返回最后错误 (79)IsConnected( )返回联机状态 (79)IsDemo( )返回模拟账户 (79)IsDllsAllowed( )返回dll允许调用 (80)IsExpertEnabled( )返回智能交易开启状态 (80)IsLibrariesAllowed( )返回数据库函数调用 (80)IsOptimization( )返回策略测试中优化模式 (81)IsStopped( )返回终止业务 (81)IsTesting( )返回测试模式状态 (81)IsTradeAllowed( )返回允许智能交易 (81)IsTradeContextBusy( )返回其他智能交易忙 (82)IsVisualMode( )返回智能交易“图片模式” (82)UninitializeReason( )返回智能交易初始化原因 (82)Client terminal客户端信息 (83)TerminalCompany( )返回客户端所属公司 (83)TerminalName( )返回客户端名称 (83)TerminalPath( )返回客户端文件路径 (83)Common functions常规命令函数 (84)Alert弹出警告窗口 (84)Comment显示信息在走势图左上角 (84)GetTickCount获取时间标记 (84)MarketInfo在市场观察窗口返回不同数据保证金列表 (85)MessageBox创建信息窗口 (85)PlaySound播放声音 (86)Print窗口中显示文本 (86)SendFTP设置FTP (86)SendMail设置Email (87)Sleep指定的时间间隔内暂停交易业务 (87)Conversion functions格式转换函数 (88)CharToStr字符转换成字符串 (88)DoubleToStr双精度浮点转换成字符串 (88)NormalizeDouble给出环绕浮点值的精确度 (88)StrToDouble字符串型转换成双精度浮点型 (89)StrToInteger字符串型转换成整型 (89)StrToTime字符串型转换成时间型 (89)TimeToStr时间类型转换为"yyyy.mm.dd hh:mi"格式 (89)Custom indicators自定义指标 (91)IndicatorBuffers (91)IndicatorCounted (92)IndicatorDigits (92)IndicatorShortName (93)SetIndexArrow (94)SetIndexBuffer (94)SetIndexDrawBegin (95)SetIndexEmptyValue (95)SetIndexLabel (96)SetIndexShift (97)SetIndexStyle (98)SetLevelStyle (98)SetLevelValue (99)Date & Time functions日期时间函数 (100)Day (100)DayOfWeek (100)Hour (100)Minute (101)Month (101)Seconds (101)TimeCurrent (101)TimeDay (102)TimeDayOfWeek (102)TimeDayOfYear (102)TimeHour (102)TimeLocal (102)TimeMinute (103)TimeMonth (103)TimeSeconds (103)TimeYear (103)Year (104)File functions文件函数 (105)FileClose关闭文件 (105)FileDelete删除文件 (105)FileFlush将缓存中的数据刷新到磁盘上去 (106)FileIsEnding文件结尾 (106)FileIsLineEnding (107)FileOpen打开文件 (107)FileOpenHistory历史目录中打开文件 (108)FileReadArray将二进制文件读取到数组中 (108)FileReadDouble从文件中读取浮点型数据 (109)FileReadInteger从当前二进制文件读取整形型数据 (109)FileReadNumber (109)FileReadString从当前文件位置读取字串符 (110)FileSeek文件指针移动 (110)FileSize文件大小 (111)FileTell文件指针的当前位置 (111)FileWrite写入文件 (112)FileWriteArray一个二进制文件写入数组 (112)FileWriteDouble一个二进制文件以浮动小数点写入双重值 (113)FileWriteInteger一个二进制文件写入整数值 (113)FileWriteString当前文件位置函数写入一个二进制文件字串符 (114)Global variables全局变量 (115)GlobalVariableCheck (115)GlobalVariableDel (115)GlobalVariableGet (115)GlobalVariableName (116)GlobalVariableSet (116)GlobalVariableSetOnCondition (116)GlobalVariablesTotal (117)Math & Trig数学和三角函数 (119)MathAbs (119)MathArccos (119)MathArcsin (119)MathArctan (120)MathCeil (120)MathCos (120)MathExp (121)MathFloor (121)MathLog (122)MathMax (122)MathMin (122)MathMod (122)MathPow (123)MathRand (123)MathRound (123)MathSin (124)MathSqrt (124)MathSrand (124)MathTan (125)Object functions目标函数 (126)ObjectCreate建立目标 (126)ObjectDelete删除目标 (127)ObjectDescription目标描述 (127)ObjectFind查找目标 (127)ObjectGet目标属性 (128)ObjectGetFiboDescription斐波纳契描述 (128)ObjectGetShiftByValue (128)ObjectGetValueByShift (129)ObjectMove移动目标 (129)ObjectName目标名 (129)ObjectsDeleteAll删除所有目标 (130)ObjectSet改变目标属性 (130)ObjectSetFiboDescription改变目标斐波纳契指标 (131)ObjectSetText改变目标说明 (131)ObjectsTotal返回目标总量 (131)ObjectType返回目标类型 (132)String functions字符串函数 (133)StringConcatenate字符串连接 (133)StringFind字符串搜索 (133)StringGetChar字符串指定位置代码 (133)StringLen字符串长度 (134)StringSubstr提取子字符串 (134)StringTrimLeft (135)StringTrimRight (135)Technical indicators技术指标 (136)iAC比尔.威廉斯的加速器或减速箱振荡器 (136)iAD离散指标 (136)iAlligator比尔・威廉斯的鳄鱼指标 (136)iADX移动定向索引 (137)iATR平均真实范围 (137)iAO比尔.威廉斯的振荡器 (138)iBearsPower熊功率指标 (138)iBands保力加通道技术指标 (138)iBandsOnArray保力加通道指标 (139)iBullsPower牛市指标 (139)iCCI商品通道索引指标 (139)iCCIOnArray商品通道索引指标 (140)iCustom指定的客户指标 (140)iDeMarker (140)iEnvelopes包络指标 (141)iEnvelopesOnArray包络指标 (141)iForce强力索引指标 (142)iFractals分形索引指标 (142)iGator随机震荡指标 (142)iIchimoku (143)iBWMFI比尔.威廉斯市场斐波纳契指标 (143)iMomentum动量索引指标 (143)iMomentumOnArray (144)iMFI资金流量索引指标 (144)iMA移动平均指标 (144)iMAOnArray (145)iOsMA移动振动平均震荡器指标 (145)iMACD移动平均数汇总/分离指标 (146)iOBV能量潮指标 (146)iSAR抛物线状止损和反转指标 (146)iRSI相对强弱索引指标 (147)iRSIOnArray (147)iRVI相对活力索引指标 (147)iStdDev标准偏差指标 (148)iStdDevOnArray (148)iStochastic随机震荡指标 (148)iWPR威廉指标 (149)Timeseries access时间序列图表数据 (150)iBars柱的数量 (150)iClose (150)iHigh (151)iHighest (151)iLow (152)iLowest (152)iOpen (152)iTime (153)iVolume (153)Trading functions交易函数 (155)Execution errors (155)OrderClose (157)OrderCloseBy (158)OrderClosePrice (158)OrderCloseTime (158)OrderComment (159)OrderCommission (159)OrderDelete (159)OrderExpiration (160)OrderLots (160)OrderMagicNumber (160)OrderModify (160)OrderOpenPrice (161)OrderOpenTime (161)OrderPrint (162)OrderProfit (162)OrderSelect (162)OrderSend (163)OrdersHistoryTotal (164)OrderStopLoss (164)OrdersTotal (164)OrderSwap (165)OrderSymbol (165)OrderTakeProfit (165)OrderTicket (166)OrderType (166)Window functions窗口函数 (167)HideTestIndicators隐藏指标 (167)Period使用周期 (167)RefreshRates刷新预定义变量和系列数组的数据 (167)Symbol当前货币对 (168)WindowBarsPerChart可见柱总数 (168)WindowExpertName智能交易系统名称 (169)WindowFind返回名称 (169)WindowFirstVisibleBar第一个可见柱 (169)WindowHandle (169)WindowIsVisible图表在子窗口中可见 (170)WindowOnDropped (170)WindowPriceMax (170)WindowPriceMin (171)WindowPriceOnDropped (171)WindowRedraw (172)WindowScreenShot (172)WindowTimeOnDropped (173)WindowsTotal指标窗口数 (173)WindowXOnDropped (173)WindowYOnDropped (174)Obsolete functions过时的函数 (175)MetaQuotes Language 4 (MQL4) 是一种新的内置型程序用来编写交易策略。

scm_4

✓ disruption risk: the major disruptions caused by natural and man-made disasters, or economic crises.
供应链风险管理过程
• 供应链风险管理就是管理人员通过风险识别、风险估计和风险评价，合理使用多种管理方法、技术和手段，对可能影响供应链的各种风险因素实行有效控制，妥善处理风险事件造成的不利后果，保证供应链管理目标的实现。
数(CDF)； • R：零售商的期望利润； • S ：供应商的期望利润； • T ：整个供应链的总期望利润； • s(Q) ：零售商的销售量； • S(Q) ：零售商的期望销售量，即E(s(Q))；
• 期望销售量：
S(Q)min(x,Q)f(x)dx
0
Q
(xQ) f (x)dxQ
0
d d a b ( ( t t ) )f t( x ,t) d a b ( ( x t t ) )ft ( x ,t) d f( x b ( t)t) d ,d ( t) b f t( a ( t)t) d ,d ( t)a
买方可以按约定执行价格购买一定上限内的数量。
• 现货购买 • 组合合同
• How much to commit to a long-term contract?
– Base commitment level.
• How much capacity to buy from companies selling option contracts?
❖ 销售回扣契约
零售商在采购超过一定数量后，每多采购一件将获得供应商提供的一个回扣。
❖供应链协调的契约
将供应商、零售商看成整体，他们最大的利润期望是多少？怎么样的契约才能实现？

数据挖掘模型中的IV和WOE详解

目录()[+] 1.IV的用途IV的全称是InformationValue，中文意思是信息价值，或者信息量。

我们在用逻辑回归、决策树等模型方法构建分类模型时，经常需要对自变量进行筛选。

比如我们有200个候选自变量，通常情况下，不会直接把200个变量直接放到模型中去进行拟合训练，而是会用一些方法，从这200个自变量中挑选一些出来，放进模型，形成入模变量列表。

那么我们怎么去挑选入模变量呢？挑选入模变量过程是个比较复杂的过程，需要考虑的因素很多，比如：变量的预测能力，变量之间的相关性，变量的简单性（容易生成和使用），变量的强壮性（不容易被绕过），变量在业务上的可解释性（被挑战时可以解释的通）等等。

但是，其中最主要和最直接的衡量标准是变量的预测能力。

“变量的预测能力”这个说法很笼统，很主观，非量化，在筛选变量的时候我们总不能说：“我觉得这个变量预测能力很强，所以他要进入模型”吧？我们需要一些具体的量化指标来衡量每自变量的预测能力，并根据这些量化指标的大小，来确定哪些变量进入模型。

IV就是这样一种指标，他可以用来衡量自变量的预测能力。

类似的指标还有信息增益、基尼系数等等。

2.对IV的直观理解从直观逻辑上大体可以这样理解“用IV去衡量变量预测能力”这件事情：我们假设在一个分类问题中，目标变量的类别有两类：Y1，Y2。

对于一个待预测的个体A，要判断A属于Y1还是Y2，我们是需要一定的信息的，假设这个信息总量是I，而这些所需要的信息，就蕴含在所有的自变量C1，C2，C3，……，Cn中，那么，对于其中的一个变量Ci来说，其蕴含的信息越多，那么它对于判断A属于Y1还是Y2的贡献就越大，Ci的信息价值就越大，Ci的IV就越大，它就越应该进入到入模变量列表中。

WECC标准BAL-004-WECC-3：自动时间错误纠正说明书

WECC Standard BAL-004-WECC-3 ─ Automatic Time Error CorrectionA.Introduction1.Title: Automatic Time Error Correction2.Number: BAL-004-WECC-33.Purpose: To maintain Interconnection frequency and to ensure that Time ErrorCorrections and Primary Inadvertent Interchange (PII) payback are effectively conducted in a manner that does not adversely affect the reliability of the Interconnection.4.Applicability4.1.Functional Entities4.1.1 Balancing Authorities that operate synchronously in the WesternInterconnection.5.Effective Date: On the first day of the second quarter, after applicable regulatoryapproval has been received (or the Reliability Standard otherwise becomes effective the first day of the fourth quarter following NERC Board adoption where regulatoryapproval is not required).B.Requirements and MeasuresR1. Each Balancing Authority shall operate its system such that, following the conclusion of each month, the month-end absolute value of its On-Peak and Off-Peak, AccumulatedPrimary Inadvertent Interchange (PII accum), as calculated by the WECC Interchange Tool (WIT) or its successor electronic confirmation tool, are each individually less than orequal to: [Violation Risk Factor Medium:] [Time Horizon: Operations Assessment]1.1For load-serving Balancing Authorities, 150% of the previous calendar year’sintegrated hourly Peak Demand,1.2For generation-only Balancing Authorities, 150% of the previous calendar year’sintegrated hourly peak generation.M1. Each Balancing Authority will have evidence that it operated its system such that, following the conclusion of each month, the month-end absolute value of its On-Peak and Off-Peak, Accumulated Primary Inadvertent Interchange (PII accum), ascalculated by the WECC Interchange Tool (WIT) or its successor electronicconfirmation tool, meets all criteria stated in Requirement R1.R2. Each Balancing Authority shall, upon discovery of an error in the calculation of PII hourly, recalculate within 90 days, the value of PII hourly and adjust the PII accum from the time ofthe error. [Violation Risk Factor: Medium] [Time Horizon: Operations Assessment]M2. Forms of acceptable evidence of compliance with Requirement R2 include but are not limited to any one of the following:•Data, screen shots from the WECC Interchange Tool (WIT) or its successor electronicconfirmation tool,•Data, screen shots from the internal Balancing Authority tool, or•Production of data from any other databases, spreadsheets, displays.R3. Each Balancing Authority shall keep its Automatic Time Error Correction (ATEC) in service, with an allowable exception period of less than or equal to an accumulated 24hours per calendar quarter for ATEC to be out of service. [Violation Risk Factor:Medium] [Time Horizon: Same-day Operations]M3. Forms of acceptable evidence of compliance with Requirement R3 may include, but are not limited to:•Dated archived files,•Historical data,•Other data that demonstrates the ATEC was out of service for less than 24 hours per calendar quarter.R4. Each Balancing Authority shall compute each of the following using the WECC Interchange Tool (WIT) or its successor electronic confirmation tool, no later than 50 minutes after each hour,4.1.PII hourly,4.2.PII accum,4.3.Automatic Time Error Correction term (I ATEC).[Violation Risk Factor: Medium] [Time Horizon: Operations Assessment]M4. Forms of acceptable evidence of compliance with Requirement R4 include but are not limited to any one of the following:•Data, screen shots from the WECC Interchange Tool (WIT) or itssuccessor electronic confirmation tool, that demonstrate compliance;•Data, screen shots from internal Balancing Authority tool that demonstrate compliance; or,•Data from any other databases, spreadsheets, displays that demonstrate compliance.R5. Each Balancing Authority shall be able to change its Automatic Generation Control operating mode between Flat Frequency (for blackout restoration); Flat Tie Line(for loss of frequency telemetry); Tie Line Bias; and Tie Line Bias plus Time ErrorControl (used in ATEC mode), to correspond to current operating conditions.[Violation Risk Factor: Medium] [Time Horizon: Real-Time Operations]M5. Forms of acceptable evidence of compliance with Requirement R5 include but are not limited to any one of the following:•Screen shots from Energy Management System,•Demonstration using an off-line system.R6. Each Balancing Authority shall recalculate the PII hourly and PII accum for the On-Peak and Off-Peak periods whenever adjustments are made to hourly InadvertentInterchange or ∆TE. [Violation Risk Factor: Medium] [Time Horizon: OperationsAssessment]M6. Forms of acceptable evidence of compliance with Requirement R6 include but are not limited to any one of the following:•Data, screen shots from the WECC Interchange Tool (WIT) or itssuccessor electronic confirmation tool, that demonstrate compliance;•Data, screen shots from an internal Balancing Authority tool thatdemonstrate compliance with; or,WECC Standard BAL-004-WECC-3 ─ Automatic Time Error Correction•Data from any other databases, spreadsheets, displays that demonstratecompliance.R7. Each Balancing Authority shall make the same adjustment to the PII accum as it did for any month-end meter reading adjustments to Inadvertent Interchange. [Violation RiskFactor: Medium] [Time Horizon: Operations Assessment]M7. Forms of acceptable evidence of compliance with Requirement R7 include but are not limited to any one of the following:•Data, screen shots from the WECC Interchange Tool (WIT) or itssuccessor electronic confirmation tool, that demonstrate compliance;•Data, screen shots from an internal Balancing Authority tool thatdemonstrate compliance; or,•Production of data from any other databases, spreadsheets, displays thatdemonstrate compliance.R8. Each Balancing Authority shall payback Inadvertent Interchange using ATEC rather than bilateral and unilateral payback. [Violation Risk Factor: Medium] [Time Horizon:Operations Assessment]M8. Forms of acceptable evidence of compliance with Requirement R8 include but are not limited to historical On-Peak and Off-Peak Inadvertent Interchange data, datafrom the WECC Interchange Tool, and ACE data.pliancepliance Monitoring Process1.1Compliance Enforcement AuthorityThe Regional Entity shall serve as the Compliance Enforcement Authority.For entities that do not work for the Regional Entity, the Regional Entity shall serveas the Compliance Enforcement Authority.For Reliability Coordinators and other functional entities that work for theirRegional Entity, the ERO or a Regional Entity approved by the ERO and FERC orother applicable governmental authorities shall serve as the ComplianceEnforcement Authority.WECC Standard BAL-004-WECC-3 ─ Automatic Time Error CorrectionFor responsible entities that are also Regional Entities, the ERO or a Regional Entityapproved by the ERO and FERC or other applicable governmental authorities shallserve as the Compliance Enforcement Authority.1.2Compliance Monitoring and Assessment Processes:Compliance AuditsSelf-CertificationsSpot CheckingCompliance InvestigationsSelf-ReportingComplaints1.3Evidence RetentionThe following evidence retention periods identify the period of time an entity isrequired to retain specific evidence to demonstrate compliance. For instanceswhere the evidence retention period specified below is shorter than the time sincethe last audit, the Compliance Enforcement Authority may ask an entity to provideother evidence to show that it was compliant for the full time period since the lastaudit.Each Balancing Authority in the Western Interconnection shall retain the values ofPII hourly, PII accum (On-Peak and Off-Peak), ∆TE and any month-end adjustments forthe preceding calendar year (January – December), as well as the current calendaryear.Each Balancing Authority in the Western Interconnection shall retain the amount oftime the Balancing Authority operated without ATEC for the preceding calendaryear (January – December), as well as the current calendar year.1.4Additional Compliance InformationNoneWECC Standard BAL-004-WECC-3 ─ Automatic Time Error CorrectionGuidelines and Technical BasisBackgroundIn February 2003, the WECC Automatic Time Error Correction (ATEC) Procedure (Procedure) became effective for all Balancing Authorities in the Western Interconnection. The original intent of the Procedure was to minimize the number of Manual Time Error Corrections in the Western Interconnection. ATEC provides the added benefit of a superior approach over NERC Reliability Standard BAL- 004-0 – Time Error Correction for assigning costs and providing for the equitable payback of Inadvertent Interchange. In October 2006, the Procedure became a WECC Criterion. In May 2009, FERC issued Order No.723 that approved Regional Reliability Standard BAL-004-WECC-1 - Automatic Time Error Correction, as submitted by NERC. In addition, the Commission directed WECC to develop several clarifying modifications to BAL-004-WECC-1 using the FERC-approved Process for Developing and Approving WECC Standards. The Effective Date of the BAL-004-WECC-1 standard was July 1, 2009. BAL- 004-WECC-1 required Balancing Authorities within the Western Interconnection to maintain Interconnection frequency within a predefined frequency profile and to ensure that Time Error Corrections were effectively conducted in a manner that did not adversely affect the reliability of the Interconnection. In September 2009, WECC received WECC Standards/Regional Criterion Request Form (Request) WECC-0068, which was a request for modification of BAL-004-WECC-1. In July 2010, the chair of the WECC Operating Committee assigned the Request to the Performance Work Group (PWG) for development.Requirement R1:Premise: Each Balancing Authority should ensure that the absolute value of its PII accum for both the On- Peak period and the Off-Peak period each individually does not exceed 150% of the previous year’s Peak Demand for load-serving Balancing Authorities and 150% of the previous year’s peak generation for generation-only Balancing Authorities. The Balancing Authority is required to keep each PII accum period within the limit. For example, the Balancing Authorities actions may include: •Identifying and correcting the source of any metering or accounting error(s) and recalculating the hourly Primary Inadvertent Interchange (PII hourly) and the PII accum from the time of the error;•Validating the implementation of ATEC; or•Setting L max equal to L10.until the PII accum is below the limit in Requirement R1. Justification: PII accum may grow from month-end adjustments and metering errors, even with the inclusion of I ATEC in the ACE equation.Goal: To limit the amount of PII accum that a Balancing Authority can have at the end of each month. Requirement R2:Premise: When a Balancing Authority finds an error in the calculation of its PII, the Balancing Authority needs time to correct the error and recalculate PII and PII accum.Justification: The drafting team selected 90 days as a reasonable amount of time to correct an error and recalculate PII and PII accum, since recalculation of PII and PII accum is not a real-time operationsWECC Standard BAL-004-WECC-3 ─ Automatic Time Error Correctionreliability issue.Goal: To promote the timely correction of errors in the calculation of PII and PII accum.Requirement R3:Premise: When a Balancing Authority is not participating in ATEC, payback of PII accum is delayed. Justification: The limit of 24 hours per quarter discourages a Balancing Authority from withdrawing ATEC participation, for example, for economic gain during selected hours. If the limits were increased to 60 hours, a Balancing Authority could technically withdraw ATEC participation for one hour from Monday to Friday.Goal: To promote fair and timely payback of PII accum balances.Requirement R4:Premise: PII hourly, PII accum, and I ATEC should be determined before the next scheduling hour begins. Justification: To promote timely calculations 50 minutes was selected because it is before the next hour ramp begins and permits time to collect the data and resolve interchange metering values.Goal: To promote the timely calculation of PII hourly, PII accum, and I ATEC.Requirement R5:Premise: The ACE equation, and hence the AGC mode, will contain any number of parameters based on system operating conditions. Various AGC modes are identified corresponding to those operating conditions, as well as the specific sets of parameters included in the ACE equation. Justification: Changing to the proper operating mode, corresponding to current operating conditions, affords proper movement of generating units in response to those conditions. The addition of the ATEC term results in an additional AGC mode and a different set of parameters. The inability to correctly calculate the ATEC term would dictate that AGC not be operated in the ATEC mode.Goal: To set the AGC mode and calculate ACE in a manner that corresponds to the system operating conditions and to accommodate changes in those conditions.Requirement R6:Premise: Hourly adjustments to hourly Inadvertent Interchange (II) require a recalculation of the corresponding hourly PII value, the corresponding PII accum, and all subsequent PII accum for every hour up to the current hour.Justification: As PII hourly is corrected, then PII accum should be recalculated.Goal: To promote accurate, fair and timely payback of accumulated PII balances.Requirement R7:WECC Standard BAL-004-WECC-3 ─ Automatic Time Error CorrectionPremise: Month-end meter-reading adjustments are made, for example, when a Balancing Authority performs monthly comparisons of recorded month-end Net Actual Interchange (NI A) values derived from hourly Actual Interchange Telemetered Values against month-end Actual Interchange Register Meter readings.Justification: Month-end adjustments to II accum are applied as 100% PII accum. 100% was chosen for simplicity to bilaterally assign PII accum to both Balancing Authorities, since the effect of this metering error on system frequency is not easily determined over the course of a month.Goal : To provide a mechanism by which corresponding month-end II adjustments can be applied to PII accum , when such adjustments cannot be attributed to any one hour or series of hours.Requirement R8:Premise: ATEC includes automatic unilateral payback of Primary Inadvertent Interchange and Secondary Inadvertent Interchange.Justification : Additional unilateral and bilateral exchanges disturb the balance and distribution between Primary Inadvertent Interchange and Secondary Inadvertent Interchange throughout the Interconnection; thereby stranding Secondary Inadvertent Interchange.Goal : To not strand Secondary Inadvertent Interchange.Version History VersionDate ActionChange Tracking 1 February 4, 2003 Effective Date. New 1 October 17, 2006 Created Standard from Procedure. Errata 1February 6, 2007 Changed the Standard Version from 0 to 1 in the Version History Table. Errata 1 February 6, 2007 The upper limit bounds to the amount of Automatic Time Error Correction term was inadvertently omitted during the Standard Translation. The bound was added to the requirement R1.4. Errata 1February 6, 2007 The statement “The Time Monitor may declare offsets in 0.001-second increments” was moved from TEoffset to TDadj and offsets was corrected to adjustments. Errata 1February 6, 2007 The reference to seconds was deleted from the TE offset term. Errata 1June 19, 2007 The standard number BAL-STD-004-1 was changed to BAL-004-WECC-01 to be consistent with the NERC Regional Reliability Standard Numbering Convention. Errata2 December 19, 2012 Adopted by NERC Board of Trustees 2 October 16, 2013 A FERC Letter Order was issued on October 16, 2013, approving BAL-004-WECC-02. This standard will become enforceable on April 1, 2014.Version Date Action Change Tracking3 TBD TBD Five-year review. Theproject: 1) relocates theBackground section tothe preamble of theGuidance section, 2)adds On-Peak and Off-Peak parameters inRequirement R1/M1, 3)addresses WECCInterchange Toolsoftware successorsthroughout, 4)conforms thedocument to currentdrafting conventions(R1/M1, R4/M4), and,5) addresses non-substantive syntax andtemplate concerns.。

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t
D

t-1

（2）其中u为以常数
t
假定零售商使用P期简单移动平均法进行需求预测，则第t 期的预测值为

D

t i 1
P
t-i
u q
（3） P
在第t-1期期末时，其需要订货的量为
t
y

t
y

t-1
D
t-1
（4）
理解：第t期期末的库存水平等于第t-1期期末的库存水平加上第t-1 期的市场需求再加上第t-1期期末订货量qt
Benetton是如何应对牛鞭效应的？

整合的信息系统

全球的EDI 网络将所有代理商连接起来以共享生产与库存的相关信息。利用EDI将订单信息直接传给总部利用EDI 与空运代理商进行连接 Frequent review allows fast reaction Integrated distribution strategy

注意：下订单根据当前库存水平和下家的订单与上期的缺货来下（还有需求的预测）
啤酒游戏操作
工厂生产要一周，即本期产量下周才能入库。工厂的收货等于上期的产量。订货多了有成本，缺货必须补足且有损失。设缺货成本为每期2个单位，库存持有成本为1个单位。每个角色的目标为使缺货与持有成本最小。
将y 、用D 、替换后代入（4），然后两边求方差化简即得 y D
t t-1 t t-1
Var(q) / Var(D): 对于不同的LT
牛鞭效应的后果Consequences….
库存水平增加服务水平降低 Inefficient allocation of resources�� 运输成本增加
计算机零售商给制造商的订单与实际销售数字的对比
订单数量的变化向上供应链向上逐级放大，上游的节点比下游的节点面临着更高的需求变动性。你所看到的并不是他们真正面临的（需求）

什么因素加剧了这一效应？

各种促销方式

导致提前购买及消费者需求的波动性增加�� 导致波动性增加��

Benetton是意大利的一家纺织品制造商，创立于1964年。在1975年的时候， Benetton 在意大利全境已经拥有了 200家门店。�� 10年之后，该公司扩张到了美国、日本与东欧。其1991 年的销售额达到了20亿美金。观察家们将其的成功归功于成功地使用了IT与通信技术。 Benetton使用了一种被称作快速响应的策略：制造、仓库、销售部门与零售商被信息系统连接起来使得任何一个其零售门店都可以通过该系统直接向位于意大利的总部订货。使用该策略, Benetton可以仅仅只需要四周的时间便能将一个新订单运抵门店，这比其竞争对手早了整整几周的时间。

角色说明：顾客—零售商--批发商—总代理商—工厂后4个每角色由2-3人扮演，其中一个人负责物理操作，另一人记录（缺货量记录到目前为止的累计量）角色之间禁止交流，也不能看别的角色的记录表格，只能看下家转移过来的订单每周：

1：记录当前库存量(第一期记为6） 2：决定并记录订货量（生产量） 3：收从上家发过来的货（对工厂而言即上期决定的生产量） 4：看（下家上周移过来的订单）发货并记录缺货量（发到前面空的一排，此时下家不能收货） 5：订单后移（放到后面空的一排，有数字的一面朝下，对工厂而言给另一个组员）
批量购买折扣

其它
Can variability be quantified?
原因是什么….

一个零售商、一个制造商

零售商观察到消费者的需求, Dt. 零售商向制造商下订单订购qt.
订单的变动性增加了多少？

假设零售商采用简单的P期移动平均法进行预测
可以看出，L越长，波动性越大！！！
证明
信息的价值
信息的价值
信息就是力量. Why?�� 信息

减少变动性提高预测的准确性提高对市场反应速度，提高客户服务水平有助于减少提前期
啤酒游戏介绍
顾客
批发商在途货品在途货品
工厂
在途货品零售商总代理商
啤酒游戏操作—严格按我的指令，我说操作
才能进行，保持步调一致，各角色之间不允许交流

多层级的供应链（multi-stage supply chain）
现在考虑一个多层级的供应链: 层级 i 向层级 i+1 下订单订购 qi. Li 为层级 i 与i+1之间的订货提前期.

多层级的供应链（multi-stage supply chain）

当每一个层级都基于零售商预测的需求数字下订单时.

协调计划

假定各成员有无限的储货能力。

如果TAT缩短，以及能够看到下家的库存结果会怎么样，再试一试。
牛鞭效应及其对供应链的影响

当沿着供应链各节点逐级向上时，订单数量的变化性有什么特点？

最终顾客的订单 (POS) 零售商给批发商的订单批发商给总代理商的订单总代理商给制造商的订单。。。。

当每一个层级都基于其下一个层级的需求数字下订单时:
多层级供应链: Var (qk)/ Var(D)
如何应对牛鞭效应---一些公司的实践

减少不确定性Reduce uncertainty

POS Sharing information Sharing forecasts and policies�� Eliminate promotions Year-round low pricing��
假定零售商使用Order-up-to的订货政策,市场需求为正态分布，则零售商在t期期末的Order-up-to水平为：

y

L
t
uz
t
L
（1）其中 u 是提前期内的平均需求的估计值，
t t

为提前期需求预测的标准方差
t
Z为选择的服务水平
假定各期市场需求为自相关，即：
D
u
EDI Cross docking�� Vendor managed inventory Data sharing

减少波动性Reduce variability

减少提前期Reduce lead times

战略伙伴关系Strategic partnerships

案例：Benetton的快速响应战略