Car and the city_ Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030

Car and the city:Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030Gerardo Marletto ⁎DiSEA/CRENoS,University of Sassari,Via Muroni 25,07100Sassari,Italya r t i c l e i n f o ab s t r ac tArticle history:Received 22March 2013Received in revised form 29October 2013Accepted 13December 2013Available online 14January 2014The socio-technical approach to innovation is used to show that the future of urban mobility will depend on the competition between coalitions of innovative actors who support alternative transport systems.A new graphical tool —the socio-technical map —is introduced in order to represent the positioning of supporting coalitions with reference to three variables:business models,propulsion technologies and power.Three transition pathways to 2030may emerge from the current situation of urban mobility:1)‘AUTO-city ’,i.e.the reconfiguration of the ‘individual car ’dominant system through the stable integration of producers of batteries;2)‘ECO-city ’,i.e.the further empowering and diffusion of local coalitions which already integrate all non-car modes of transport;3)‘ELECTRI-city ’,i.e.a new ‘electricity vehicles +smart grids ’system established by a coalition led by electric operators.Because of the cumulative processes between the transformation of supporting coalition and their access to higher level of competence and power,both technologies and policies can be considered as endogenous variables to transition pathways.The resulting policy prescriptions are clear-cut:if not destabilized by policy pressure,the ‘AUTO-city ’will prevail;to support the ‘ECO-city ’and the ‘ELECTRI-city ’,a multilevel policy for urban and transport planning and a national innovation and industrial policy are needed,respectively.©2013Elsevier Inc.All rights reserved.Keywords:Urban mobilitySocio-technical analysis Transition pathway Supporting coalition Cumulative process1.IntroductionIn recent years several scholars have tried to analyze the future of the transport sector,also with the aim of understand-ing how its environmental impacts may be reduced drastically (see e.g.[16,44,85]).This paper contributes to this research stream by providing an analysis of the current and future dynamics of urban mobility which explicitly draws on the socio-technical (ST)field of innovation and future studies [29].This paper is part of a specific subset of ST future studies,that is,ST scenarios.ST scenarios differ from other forecasting techniques as they provide a better systemic and dynamic representation of future changes.In particular —and more relevant here —ST scenarios are useful not so much for thestatic description of future outcomes,as for the analysis of the multi-dimension and multi-actor dynamics of alternative transition pathways and the role played by public interven-tions at critical points [28].The ST analysis of scenarios and transition pathways is usually focused on specific sectors,such as energy [25,93]or transportation [21,36,51].As stressed by several authors in the ST research field,the analysis of scenarios and transition pathways suffers from the lack of integration of political issues.Politics and policy are usually considered as exogenous factors,thus hindering the ability of ST future studies to envisage mid-and long-term structural changes [26,49,59,82].Starting from these con-siderations,this paper aims at understanding whether a genuinely dynamic analysis of the role played by relevant actors in transitions may help the ST approach to consider both technologies and political institutions as endogenous variables.In order to provide useful cues for this purpose,this paper builds an original analysis of future transition pathways of urban mobility where:a)coalitions of innova-tive actors motivated by different interests and/or ideas andTechnological Forecasting &Social Change 87(2014)164–178Abbreviations:(CA),common action;(EV),electric vehicle;(IUTS),integrated urban transport system;(PP),policy package;(SG),smart grid;(ST),socio-technical.⁎Tel.:+3906852651.E-mail address:marletto@uniss.it.0040-1625/$–see front matter ©2013Elsevier Inc.All rights reserved./10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.013Contents lists available at ScienceDirectTechnological Forecasting &Social Changepromoting different transport systems are at the heart of the process of changing urban mobility;b)the actual deployment of transition pathways strongly depends on the cumulative process between the transformation of coalitions,the access to higher levels of competence,legitimacy and power,and the evolution of both technologies and political institutions. Moreover,a new graphical tool—the ST map—is introduced in order to reduce the resulting complexity in transitions in an intelligible way;the current and future positioning of actors and coalitions is represented with reference to three variables: business models,propulsion technologies and power.The description and analysis of transition pathways is not limited to the car and its future evolutions,but attention is paid to two different dynamics:the reproduction of the currently dominating car-based system of urban mobility, and the embedding into new systems of urban mobility of emerging low-carbon innovations(such as,electric propulsion, shared systems,stronger integration of all non-car transport modes,and so on).The current situation of urban mobility is considered at first;then,three alternative transition pathways to year2030scenarios of urban mobility are considered.Year 2030is chosen as reference for scenarios because it is near enough to ensure a sufficient knowledge of the relevant constituents of future transitions,and it is distant enough to allow alternative transition pathways to deploy.The following five paragraphs in the paper explain:the basic concepts of the ST approach and the ST map(Section2); the current situation of urban mobility(Section3);the development of the three ST transition pathways(Section4). Finally,the last two paragraphs provide discussion and conclusions,respectively.2.The socio-technical approach:basic concepts and a new graphical representation2.1.What is specific of this approachThis paper is based on a socio-technical(ST)approach to the analysis of innovation processes.It goes beyond the scope of this paper to review all the contributions coming from scholars who refer to the ST approach;here two of its specificities which are relevant for the subsequent analysis are highlighted.1The first one lies in the ST approach not being a reductionist one:complexity is explicitly considered as a relevant feature of the process of innovation;this is why the overall picture is never explained by looking at one or more specific elements.In particular technology is not the core driver of innovation,but just a structural element in the functioning of the society,interacting with other institutional and economic constituents,and with agency[33].Another specificity is that the ST approach focuses on actions rather than on functions2:the purposeful action of individuals and groups is at the heart of the analysis.All relevant attributes of action stay at the center of the analytical scene:power, interests,conflicts,agendas,policies,intentional pressure for —and resistance to—change,etc.[5,26,81].This does not mean that the ST approach is teleological,with innovation as the intended effect of individual and collective action;it only means that there is no innovation without human action. 2.2.Socio-technical systemsThe ST system is a basic concept in the ST approach to innovation.Societal functions(housing,feeding,mobility, lighting,etc.)are fulfilled by one or more ST systems.All ST systems are(more or less)stable configurations.The ST system is a meso-concept:the micro level is composed by its constituents(rules,artifacts,knowledge,actors,preferences, financial resources,etc.);the macro level includes exogenous socio-economic phenomena and trends.3The functioning of ST systems can be conceptualized as structured agency[37]. Two more basic concepts complete the framework:1)the dominant ST system:a stable and powerful ST system which strongly influences the dynamics of—and co-exists with—all other subaltern or residual ST systems and generates pervasive lock-in phenomena[33]4;2)the ST‘niche’:a space which is partially or totally protected from the selection pressures generated by the dominant ST system[77].ST niches are particularly relevant for the generation and experimentation of innovations and for the gradual structuring and empowerment of new ST systems[5,83].52.3.Actors and coalitions:a cumulative processActors—all featuring bounded rationality—are the engine of a coevolutionary process of change:through action and learning, they replicate the structure of the ST system;at the same time, they generate—directly or indirectly,intentionally or uninten-tionally—the variation and selection of structural variables.Every actor features a vector of material and immaterial endowments (physical and financial resources,knowledge and skills,social capital and legitimacy,etc.)and is motivated by his/her interests, ideas and visions.Every actor's power—hence her/his ability to influence the dynamics of ST systems—is a function of the above vector.Supporting coalitions are defined as groups of actors who are interested in the reproduction or the emergence of ST systems[5,30,46].Actors'membership is then crucial to understand the dynamics and interactions of ST systems: coalitions of‘core-actors’are interested in—and actively act for—the reproduction of an existing ST system[80];coalitions of‘enactors’try to transform an innovation into a social practice,in order to establish a new ST system[86].In this approach,competences,power and legitimacy are linked to coalition building by a cumulative process which is essential1For critical analyses of this researchfield see[53,92].For an interesting attempt to operationalize this approach see the results of the EU funded ‘MATISSE’project[41].2For a structured approach to the study of the functions of innovation systems see[48].3This is the‘landscape’in the terminology used by Frank Geels[29]and other scholars of the so-called multi-level perspective.4The concept of subaltern or residual ST systems has been introduced only recently in the ST literature[33]in order to consider those ST configuration that are not dominant systems nor niches.Inter alia,this novelty implies that the use of the term‘regime’as a synonymous of ‘dominant ST system’should be abandoned:in the ST terminology the ‘regime’is the specific set of rules shared by the supporting coalition of a ST system,that is,also of a subaltern one.5Brown et al.[10]use a similar concept,but with a different terminology:‘bounded socio-technical experiment’instead of niche.165G.Marletto/Technological Forecasting&Social Change87(2014)164–178for both kinds of coalitions[5,23,62]:core-actors of a dominant ST system use their endowments to keep“capturing”politics and policy;successful enactors—usually starting from a ST niche—needs to affect shared cultures,political discourses and informal rules,before achieving durable credibility and a stable influence on agendas,formal norms and policies[7,35,83]. 2.4.Transition pathways and transformative mechanismsThe dynamics of ST systems may be grouped into two large families:the adaptation of a dominant ST system and the attempt of a ST system to take over the dominant position. Adaptation can be conceptualized as a homeostatic process: changes in institutions,markets and technologies take place along an established transition pathway;the alignment of such changes is granted by the structure of the dominant ST system—which gradually changes—and it is supported by a coalition of actors internal to the dominant system and committed to its survival[90].Things completely change when a system try to gain the dominant position:a process of extrication is needed to free resources,knowledge,actors, etc.,that are locked into the dominant system;intentional and unintentional forces generating inertia must be over-come;new institutions,technologies and markets must be built;a new process of multidimensional alignment must be triggered and the resulting transition pathway made viable [1,8,24].But no structure is available to coordinate all these efforts,because the structure itself is created through the innovation process.In such a situation,one can even doubt if the establishment of a new dominant position is possible without the purposeful and increasingly coordinated action of a coalition of enactors.ST niches may play a relevant role in both kinds of dynamics: in the case of adaptation,niches may cluster with the dominant ST system;in the case of take-over,niches contribute to threaten the dominant ST system and to establish a new dominant position[41,77,83].The typology of ST transition pathways provided by Geels and Schot in their seminal work[34]—in which the role of actors is explicitly considered—is at center stage of the analysis proposed in this paper;a fundamental reference is also made to the work of Haxeltine et al.[41]who explain such typology in terms of‘transformative mechanisms’that allow actors to have access to new endowments—competences,power,legitimacy—through the creation or reconfiguration of support-ing coalition(see Table1for details).2.5.Change and space:the role of the cityST systems are usually analyzed at a national/international level.Sometimes the city—and the local level—is taken into account,but just as recipient for the implementation of an innovation process generated at a larger scale.Only in recent years the active role of cities has raised the interest of ST scholars.The city is considered as a place where:a)coalitions of enactors can be built more easily;b)local endowments may be mobilized for innovative practices;c)political deliberation is more fluid—that is,the city is a friendly environment for the establishment and reproduction of ST niches[12,45,82].But—as clearly stated by Geels[31]—the city can feature a more relevant role than the mere hosting of niches:1)local ST systems may co-exist with a national/international dominant system(e.g.,in the case of non-car urban transport systems);2)ST niches may be located at the local/urban level,but then the dynamics of the dominant system takes place at the national/international level(e.g.,in the case of electric cars);3)the local/urban level is not relevant for the reproduction and change of the dominant ST system(e.g.,in the case of the mass production of individual cars).2.6.A graphical representation:the socio-technical mapIn the rest of the paper a new graphical tool—the ST map—will be used to provide an intelligible representation of all the elements that are here considered relevant for the reproduc-tion of the societal function of urban mobility:ST systems and niches;actors and coalitions;and their competences and power.In particular,the ST map aims at shading light on two dynamics which are somehow neglected by the usual‘multi-level’representation provided by ST studies[31]:the transfor-mative mechanisms affecting ST systems and the consequent reconfiguration of their supporting coalitions.All ST maps do not refer to a specific urban situation;on the contrary,an explicit attempt is made to deliver an analysis representing all the dynamics relevant at a global scale.Reference to specific actors or urban area is made;such examples are not provided with the ambition of including all the details in the analysis,but with the goal of giving an idea of the actual—and differentiated—reproduction of ST systems ofTable1The dynamics of socio-technical systems:an overview a.Overall dynamics Transition pathway Actors'main strategy Transformative mechanismsAdaptation of the dominant system Transformation Core-actors react to pressures coming fromoutsiders or exogenous factorsInternal adjustment and maintenanceClustering of niches(possibly)Absorption of outsiders(possibly) Reconfiguration Suppliers of new components enter the coalition ofcore-actors of the dominant systemAbsorption of outsidersClustering of niches(possibly)Creation of a new dominant position (takeover)Substitution Actors of other systems take over and change thedominant systemCompetition between the dominantsystem and a new systemClustering of niches(possibly)Absorption of outsiders(possibly) De-alignment and re-alignment A coalition of enactors establishes a new system whilethe old system is destabilized by exogenous factorsClustering and empowering of nichesAbsorption of enactorsAbsorption of outsiders(possibly)a Adapted from[34]and[41].166G.Marletto/Technological Forecasting&Social Change87(2014)164–178urban mobility.In the case of the car ST system—which reproduces mostly at a global level—reference is made to specific automotive companies and their innovative strategies. Other references to specific urban areas or local experiments are made to account for the emergence of niches and systems, especially for those that are alternative to the car.In any case, no confusion should be made between the geographical scale of the urban mobility societal function(which is obviously urban)and the scale of the reproduction of the relevant actors and systems,which can be global(as in the case of the car system),urban/local(as in the case of the public transport systems),or multilevel(as in the case of the bicycle system and the carsharing niche,which are simultaneously national/ federal and urban/local).Hereafter,an explicit reference will be made to the relevant geographical scale of analysis.All ST maps provided in the following sections are based on secondary information and data gathered from the relevant scientific and grey literature.The robustness of both inputs and outputs of the analysis may be increased by validation through participatory process.In every ST map,actors and ST systems(and niches)are positioned with reference to two axes:business models and propulsion technologies;the resulting positioning of actors represents their technological and organizational competences and the distance between different actors and systems must be interpreted in term of such competences.A third variable is also considered:power,that is the ability of supporting coalitions to influence institutions and markets.The representation of power is very simple and based on the outline of the rectangles used to symbolize ST systems:thicker for the dominant system,normal for other systems and dotted for niches.All other graphic symbols are very simple too;refer to the legend of the Figs.1–4 for details.The ST map is first used to represent the current situation of urban mobility(Fig.1);this is the starting point of three alternative transition pathways whose ending points are the2030scenarios(Figs.2–4).The deployment of transition pathways mainly depends on the current positioning of actors and from their ability to trigger a cumulative process between the reconfiguration of their coalitions,the access to higher levels of competence,legitimacy and power,and the evolution of both technologies and political institutions.3.Actors and systems of urban mobility:thecurrent situationAll ST configurations currently contributing to the reproduc-tion of the societal function of urban mobility are represented in the following ST map(Fig.1):the dominant system of the ‘individual car’;two subaltern systems:‘public transport’and the ‘individual bicycle’;the niche of‘sharing schemes’.Details about each of them are provided in the following paragraphs.3.1.The‘individual car’Authoritative scholars recognize the individual car as the dominant ST system of urban mobility,not only for its striking share of the mobility market(more than80%of total journeys in all developed countries),as for the ability of its supporting coalition(where automotive and oil companies are the main“SELL”(TO INDIVIDUAL CONSUMERS)“RENT”(BATTERIESAND/OR VEHICLES)“MANAGE”(TRANSPORT AND/ORENERGY SYSTEMS)BusinessmodelFig.1.A socio-technical map of urban mobility:systems and actors.167G.Marletto/Technological Forecasting&Social Change87(2014)164–178core-actors)to influence institutions and the society as a whole [16,85,97].6This system is well centered on the business model of‘selling’cars(and other vehicles)to individuals—nowadays with an increasing attention to emerging economies—but it is already able to span from the propulsion technology of ‘internal combustion’(which powers99%of the currently circulating fleet)to that of‘plugged-in electric’(this is the reason of the black vertical arrow in Fig.1)[27,64,65,99].The automotive industry is the main core-actor of this system; some individual automotive companies are positioned into the map in order to explicit the existence of different innovative strategies.Fiat-Chrysler and Volkswagen are just two examples of the more conservative—and until today,more diffused—innovation strategy,based on efficient internal combustion and downsizing7:a strategy implemented by most leading manu-facturers too,such as Daimler,Ford,Hyundai,Nissan,Honda and Toyota[97].Toyota and Honda are also the main promoters of the“hybridization”of the car8;they have chosen the hybrid propulsion as the entry-point to a process of technological innovation which,at the same time,is:a)compatible with the current core competences,sunk investments,dominant design and interdependencies of the automotive industry,and b)flexible enough to allow the future access to full electric cars[4,42].Some other leading automotive companies—e.g.Citroen and Mitsubishi—jumped directly into the full electric car technology,but mostly as a residual option to internal combustion cars.On the contrary,this is the strategy implemented by most Chinese newcomers who are entering the technology of full electric propulsion without the sunk costs of previous investments.Also small specialized assemblers and manufacturers(as Heuliez,Pininfarina,Valmet, etc.)are trying to develop their EVs on a limited productive and commercial basis[96].Suppliers of components are another relevant industrial actor of the individual car system;in particular,producers of batteries—and other electric and electronic components—play a more and more relevant role in the trajectory of electrification [65]:some of them are implementing autonomous strategies, such as:Bolloré,9who developed the Parisian“Autolib”carsharing scheme with Pininfarina(the Italian producer of the electric“Bluecar”)and recently signed a letter of intent with Renault to collaborate on carsharing operations and eventually develop a new small electric vehicle;BYD(Build Your Dreams),a private Chinese producer of batteries for computers and cellular phones,who is now producing cars.10Some other car producers are trying—at very different scale of testing and marketing—to integrate some elements of the‘rent’and‘manage’business models into the car system[100]11:Nissan-Renault already launched the mixed option of selling full-electric cars and renting batteries,in cooperation with Better Place,the emerging manager of battery-charge and battery-swap stations12; Daimler(with its electric Mini)and BMW(with its electric Smart)are promoting two vehicle-to-grid(V2G)tests,in cooperation with two energy suppliers:the Italian Enel and the Swedish Vattenfall,respectively[63].13Moreover,an increasing number of electric utilities is involved in partnerships related to the diffusion of EVs[65].3.2.‘Public transport’This is one of the two systems of urban mobility that are subaltern to the‘individual car’system in terms of both transport modal split(often less than10%of total mobility) and influence on national policies.At the urban and regional level this system is usually able to obtain a significant amount of public resources which are used to build dedicated infrastruc-tures and subsidize services[26,33,51].This system is mostly centered on the business model of‘managing’networks of transport infrastructures and services,but with a well rooted experience in the‘rent’business model,thanks to taxi services—see the horizontal black arrow in Fig.1.Since its birth it has been able to plug-in vehicles(trolleys,tramways,trains,etc.)to the electric grid;again,this is the reason of a black vertical arrow covering all motorized propulsion technologies.The most relevant actors in the supporting coalition of this system are both local:public transport companies,and urban and regional Authorities.Some capital cities are positioned on the map as examples of the several world urban areas where a transition has already taken place from public to multimodal transport(i.e.the integration of individual means and collective modes,including park-and-ride schemes),thus generating a reduction of the use of individual cars down to40%of total mobility.With the exception of these success cases,‘public transport’is usually associated to the image of“transport for the poor”[11,16,17,47,67,85].3.3.The‘individual bicycle’This is the other subaltern—if not marginal—system of urban mobility:in Northern America,Europe and Australia the bicycle average share of trips is negligible,that is,around2%. This figure is the result of a declining trend which started several decades ago in developed countries and more recently in emerging economies(where the use of bicycles is much more diffused,but rapidly declining).Starting from the mid-70s the bicycle has experienced a revival supported by6Also see Marletto[54]for a survey of the literature on this issue.7See Schipper[76]for a worldwide analysis of the effects of such a strategy in terms of on-road fuel efficiency and CO2emissions.8By April2012Toyota(the largest automaker in world)hybrids had soldmore than4million units(.au,accessed06/06/2012).9The BolloréGroup is a producer of batteries and‘supercapacitors’for electric cars,buses and trams.(,accessed06/06/2012). 10In China—which is today both the largest producer of cars and the greatest market for cars—most automotive companies are owned by the State or are joint ventures with major foreign car companies(such as BYD),with the relevant exception of Geely,an independent Chinese company[85,95].11For detailed and exhaustive analyses of electric car business models,see [40,50].For an overview on traditional and innovative car business models, see[96].12The business model of battery rental(and,eventually,swap)not only reduces the price of electric cars,but also allows to install new batteries with better performances in old EVs[6].13With“E-mobility”100electric“Smart”and400recharging points will be provided in Rome,Milan and Pisa.With“Mini Berlin”50electric“Mini”and 100recharging points are provided in Berlin;in the latter case,electric vehicle batteries are tested as storage capacity to help manage excess wind energy.For more details see:/en/electric-cars. htm and /en-GB/innovation/(both accessed06/06/ 2012).168G.Marletto/Technological Forecasting&Social Change87(2014)164–178local and national coalitions of public actors and grassroots movements,both aiming at higher level of users'health,urban livability and environmental quality.In some countries these coalitions have been able to gain an influence on national policies too:in The Netherlands,Denmark and Germany more than10%of today mobility is assured by bicycles;but it is worth mentioning that in some pro-bike cities of these countries bicycles serve more than25%of total trips.These cases of wider diffusion are the result of a multilevel action,combining national plans and guidelines with the local provisions of cycling routes,dedicated parking and other supporting mea-sures(traffic calming,intersection modifications,integration with public transport,training and education,etc.)[68].Recent figures signal the increasing use of bicycles in some North American cities too(Portland,Minneapolis,Vancouver,etc.), with a resulting share which is still around3–5%of commuters, but reaches6–8%in central areas;these trends are mainly caused by the building of new bike lanes and pathways by local Administrations[69].As the‘individual car’system,also the‘individual bicycle’is centered on the‘sell’business model and—thanks to the increasing diffusion of electric bicycles[74]—it is able to cover all propulsion technologies.The Worldwatch Institute reports that more bicycles than cars are produced worldwide14:around130million and70million,respectively; not surprisingly China is the larger producer and buyer of bicycles(including13million of e-bikes)[85].3.4.Sharing schemesThe map of urban mobility is completed by the dotted black rectangle representing the niche of‘sharing schemes’, i.e.systems which provide members with access to a vehicle for short-term use.A fleet of vehicles,a diffused network of dedicated parking and specific technologies for the remote control of vehicles are the standard equipment of these systems.Such a niche,which is obviously centered on the ‘rent’business model,is now experiencing a rapid extension from cars to bicycles,with the Parisian“Velib”bike-sharing scheme as the most relevant example.Worldwide the most recent figures count136bike-sharing schemes(with237,000 bicycles)and1,788,000carsharing15members(with43,500 vehicles)[13,78,79].It must be stressed that most of the pioneering experiences of carsharing were initially sup-ported by non-profit actors(e.g.,ShareCom in Switzerland—then merged in Mobility—and Cambio in Germany)and then evolved into commercial initiatives.Other established carsharing schemes are:‘Greenwheels’in the Netherlands and Germany,‘Zipcar’in the US and UK and the already cited experiences of ‘Autolib’in Paris and‘Car2go’in Europe and Northern America16 (both making use of electric bikes and cars).Innovative managers of rental systems for both passenger and freight transport can be considered part of this niche too[65].3.5.The potential for change:exogenous pressures and endogenous dynamicsThe societal function of urban mobility as a whole is under the pressure of a twofold quest for global sustainability and urban livability:more and more diffused limits to urban circulation and tighter and tighter emission standards on vehicles are just the two most relevant examples of an increasing and diffusing number of local,national and global policies that force all the relevant actors to change the way in which today's urban mobility is provided.Starting from its dominant position,the‘individual car’system is already looking for an effective answer to such demand for change;the most promising approach is the stable integration of those factors that may provide the needed new competences,in particular the more innovative producers of batteries.This kind of transition may be hampered by the delegitimization of the supporting coalition of the‘individual car’—and of their political discourse—and by the consequent emergence of policies explicitly aimed at reducing car use and ownership.But this event is highly unlikely,because of the current global dominant position of the supporting coalition of the‘individual car’system,and the resulting ability to keep gaining a political support for incentive schemes to“green”the car(that is,to buy new cars).Another relevant endogenous dynamic refers to the increasing number of cities where a transition to a new system of urban mobility is gaining ground,or even—in the most dynamic areas—is already accomplished.This is mainly the result of the ability of coalitions of enactors to influence the urban policy arena.The generalization of this transition is conditioned by the successful deployment of two dynamics: a)the de-alignment and re-alignment of the constituents of already existing systems and niches(‘public transport’,‘indi-vidual bicycle’,‘carsharing schemes’)which,as a result,will disappear as autonomous configurations;b)the diffusion in an increasing number of local areas—and then the extension to the national level—of the new supporting coalitions'legitimacy, power and influence on policies.The last—but highly relevant—potential for change is coming from some very powerful outsiders that are currently involved only in some niche experiments;that is,electric operators(producers of electricity and managers of electric grids).These actors already feature high level of compe-tences,legitimacy and power;their massive entry into the societal function of urban mobility may therefore have a dramatic(and even disruptive)effect on all today's actors and systems.This is why the enlistment of actors and systems of urban mobility in a new supporting coalition led by electric operators may finally result in a takeover of the current dominant position of the‘individual car’.Specific transition pathways will be triggered and de-ployed if one or another of these potential for changes will prevail;the three more likely alternatives are described in details in the following section.4.Alternative transition pathways to2030Three transition pathways may emerge from the current situation of urban mobility as the result of different trans-formative mechanisms:1)the‘AUTO-city’transition pathway,14/(accessed:31/01/2013).15In the UK carsharing schemes are known as‘car clubs’and carsharing is a synonymous of car-pooling,i.e.the shared use of a car owned by one of the travelers.16Car2go is now available in20cities:Amsterdam,Portland and San Diego are the only three locations where the electric version of the‘Smart’is used. (,accessed06/06/2012).169G.Marletto/Technological Forecasting&Social Change87(2014)164–178。