2010世界经济形势与展望-英文版
2010年世界经济形势回顾与展望
2010年世界经济形势回顾与展望作者：黄卫平丁凯来源：《当代世界》2011年第01期2010年的世界经济，在后次贷危机的调整和转型中，在欧债危机风险频现和流动性泛滥的环境中，脆弱但缓慢地复苏着。
2010年世界经济形势的简单回顾2010年，国际金融危机和经济危机已趋于稳定。
据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，2010年全年全球经济将增长4.8％，2011年增长4.2％。
而世界银行所预测的数据则分别为2.9％和3.3％。
世界经济的火车头——美国第二季度经济增长率为1.7％，尽管其投资和消费依然疲弱，失业率连续17个月超过9％，持续时间为近三十年来之最。
随着经济爬出经济周期的谷底，第二轮量化宽松政策出台，美国进入“印钞经济时代”，输出通胀，弥补赤字，摩根大通将美国第四季度增长预期调至3.5％。
在欧元区，受“欧猪五国”（PIIGS，即葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙）的债务危机拖累，第二季度GDP环比增长仅为1％。
欧债危机是欧盟长期实行赤字财政的结果，暴露了欧盟经济模式及欧元区自身制度的缺陷：统一的货币政策，分散的财政政策，导致无人负责财政赤字规模的扩张，引发全球金融市场的剧烈动荡，警示了经济一体化的道德风险。
其后续表现主要看德国等欧元区大国“出手相救”的效果。
日本第三季度环比增长1.1％，日元升值和持续通缩令其出口拉动型经济复苏的形势不容乐观。
其所谓的“新经济增长战略”能否让自身经济走出“更年期”，还要看日本如何摆平地缘竞合、资源和日元的关系。
新兴经济体继续领先发达经济体强劲增长，如2010年第二季度“金砖四国”的印度GDP同比增长8.8％，巴西8.8％，俄罗斯5.2％，增速均创2008年以来同期新高。
但其经济过热引发的通胀预期进一步增强，打破了经济复苏的良好预期。
在脆弱的经济复苏表现下，各国政府已出台的经济刺激政策效应进入衰减期，自顾性加剧，协整难度加大，宏观调控面临两难处境：过早退出刺激性政策可能引致经济复苏成果的夭折，面临二次探底的风险；退得太晚则又面临恶性通胀的巨大威胁。
2010年世界经济形势分析预测
１ 新兴市场国家经济回暖速度明显超 过发达国家 ．
度以来首次实现同比正增长（． 。 ０６ ％） 区内各成员国的经济 复苏态势迥异， 德国、 法国和意大利一季度经济分别环比 增长了０ ％、 ． ． ２ ０ ％和０ ％； １ ． 而芬兰一季度经济则环比收缩 ５
幅。 与美 、 相 比， 元 区 经济复 苏 相对 缓 慢 ， 日 欧 一季度 经 济 环 比增长 ０ ％ ， ． ２ 连续 三个 季度 正增 长 ， 自 ０ ８ 第 四季 且 ２０年
兴市场国家以及美、 等发达国家经济出现较快回升， 日 经济 复苏的趋势进一步确立， 标志着世界经济普遍进入复苏周
理 论上 ， 洲 债务 危 机可 以通 过银 行 向美 国金融 业传 欧 导， 实 际上在 经 历 了金 融 危机 之 后 的美 国银 行业 对 欧 洲 但
牙、 意大利、 爱尔兰和西班牙（ 该五国被称为 “ 欧猪五国” 的 ） 主权信用评级也遭到警告或调降， 导致国际股市大跌和国
际市场避 险 隋绪 大幅升温 ， 引发了欧 洲 主权债 务危机 ， 重 严 扰 乱了欧洲乃 至全 球的金 融秩 序。 为避 免危 机 恶化 导 致灾 难 性 后果 发生 ， 月 １Ｅ， ５ ０ ｔ 欧盟 首脑 会议 和财政部长会 议 通过 了由 “ 双边 贷款 、 欧盟贷 款和 国际货 币基 金 组 织信 贷 额度 一 三大 部 分 组 成 的７ ０ 亿 欧 ５０
《 展研 究 》 发
二． 欧洲主权债务危机的发展走势及其影响
自 年ｌ Ｊ以来 ， 去 ｑ ２ 国际三大 评级机 构惠誉 、 准普 尔和 标 穆迪 相继 连 续调 降 希腊 主 权信用 评级 至 垃圾 级 ， 同时葡 萄
世界经济的新趋势英语作文
世界经济的新趋势英语作文Title: Emerging Trends in the Global EconomyIn the intricate tapestry of globalization, the world economy is undergoing profound transformations, driven by technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and environmental concerns. These emerging trends are reshaping industries, economies, and the very fabric of international relations. This essay delves into several key trends that are defining the new landscape of the global economy.1. Digitization and the Rise of the Digital EconomyAt the forefront of these changes stands the relentless march of digitization. The digital economy, fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things (IoT), is transforming traditional industries and creating new ones. E-commerce, fintech, and remote work have become ubiquitous, while digital platforms facilitate seamless global trade and connectivity. This trend not only enhances productivity and efficiency but also presents opportunities for economic growth and innovation, particularly in developing countries.2. Sustainability and the Green TransitionAs the world grapples with the realities of climate change, sustainability has emerged as a central pillar of the global economy. Governments, businesses, and consumers alike are recognizing the need for a green transition, marked by the adoption of renewable energy sources, circular economy practices, and environmentally responsible production methods. This shift is driving investments in clean technologies, creating new industries, and reshaping global supply chains. The green economy represents a significant growth opportunity for countries willing to embrace the transition.3. Trade Realignment and Regional IntegrationAmidst growing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the global trading system is undergoing a period of realignment. Multilateral trade agreements are facing challenges, while regional trade blocs and bilateral trade deals gain prominence. This trend reflects a shift towards more flexible and agile trade arrangements that can better address the specific needs and concerns of participating nations. At the same time, the rise of digital trade and e-commerce is facilitating cross-border transactions, making it easier for small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in global markets.4. The Rise of Emerging Markets and the Multipolar WorldThe global economic landscape is becoming increasingly multipolar, with emerging markets and developing economies playing an increasingly prominent role. China, India, and other emerging economies are not only contributing significantly to global growth but are also shaping international norms and institutions. This shift is reflected in the growing influence of these countries in global trade, finance, and technology. As they continue to rise, the balance of power in the world economy is evolving, leading to new opportunities and challenges for all nations.5. The Impact of the Pandemic and Future ResilienceThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the global economy, revealing vulnerabilities in supply chains, healthcare systems, and economic resilience. In its aftermath, nations are reevaluating their strategies for economic growth and resilience. This includes investments in healthcare infrastructure, digitalization of public services, and the diversification of supply chains to reduce reliance on a few key markets. The pandemic has also accelerated the adoption of remote work and e-commerce, further accelerating the digital transformation of economies.ConclusionIn conclusion, the world economy is being reshaped by a confluence of trends that are transforming industries, economies, and international relations. Digitization, sustainability, trade realignment, the rise of emerging markets, and the impact of the pandemic are all contributing to this transformation. As nations navigate these changes, it is crucial to embrace innovation, foster international cooperation, and prioritize resilience in order to harness the opportunities and mitigate the risks presented by these emerging trends.。
2010年经济发展国内外环境及走势
2010年经济发展国内外环境及走势2010年，世界经济将缓慢复苏，但由于诸多的不确定性因素，复苏存在波折，甚至有出现较大起伏的可能。
相比之下，国内经济则相对稳定，国家将继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，以保持经济平稳较快增长，但由于投资增幅过快、结构性产能过剩及通胀的压力，国家的宏观调控政策将会适时进行调整，特别是在下半年，政策调整的幅度和力度可能会进一步加大。
一、国际经济走势与环境分析（一）2010年世界经济将缓慢复苏。
1.发达经济体有望实现低速增长。
2009年，世界经济经历了一个从深度衰退到艰难复苏的历程。
世界主要发达经济体经济下滑的速度在2009年下半年明显放缓，到年末已纷纷出现正增长。
据美国商务部2010年1月29日公布的数据，2009年美国GDP同比名义下降了1.3%（现价），同比实际下降2.4%（2005年不变价），其中，2009年第三、四季度按年率计算分别增长了2.2%、5.7%，为连续四个季度下滑后的明显反弹。
美联储预测，2010年美国经济有望增长2%-4%。
欧元区16国和欧盟27国2009年第三季度GDP分别取得0.4%和0.2%的增长。
日本经济在经历了连续三个季度的负增长之后，也分别在第二、第三季度实现2.3%和1.2%的增长。
主要发达经济体的先行指标均呈现向上势头。
2009年11月，美国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为53.6%，12月份为55.9%；欧元区PMI从10月的53.0%进一步上升至11月的53.7%，达到近两年来的最高点；日本PMI达到54.3%，均显示出经济景气向好的趋势，特别是美国，经济复苏势头明显。
表一：发达经济体季度GDP增长比较及走势预测（%）资料来源：GDP实际值来自各经济体官方统计网站，预测值来自国际货币基金组织（IMF）《世界经济展望》，加“*”预测值来自欧盟官方网站。
2.新兴经济体引领全球复苏。
2009年上半年，以中国和印度为代表的亚洲经济体和“金砖四国”的巴西、俄罗斯表现出了强劲的复苏态势，成为拉动全球经济回暖的领头羊；非洲国家除南非外，虽然经济增速有所下滑，但大多都还保持正增长；新兴经济体中出现负增长的国家大部分在2009年二季度已显现复苏迹象。
2010-09-13欧元区经济预测 英文版
[suggested new layout using the text of IF Sep 09]September 2010EU recovery progressing within an uncertain global environmentThe economic recovery in the EU, while still fragile, is progressing at a faster pace than previously envisaged. In particular, real GDP growth for both the EU and euro area surprised markedly on the upside in the second quarter of 2010. This strong performance stemmed from an export-driven industrial rebound, in line with the continued strong dynamics of global growth and trade in the first half of the year. Encouragingly, signs of a revival in domestic demand, including private consumption, also became evident, particularly in Germany. While a moderation of EU GDP growth in the second half of the year is still foreseen, some momentum from the second quarter should feed-through to the following quarters, lifting the previously expected quarterly profile somewhat. This improved outlook is supported, inter alia, by sentiment indicators for the EU pointing to continuing expansion of activity in the months ahead, with signs that the recovery is also broadening across sectors. However, the global economy is still expected to go through a soft patch in the second half of the year, implying a dampening effect on EU export growth. In addition, although financial-market conditions have partly recovered from the acute tensions experienced last May, the situation remains tenuous, and adverse effects on bank credit provision to the economy cannot be ruled out.Based on an update for the seven largest EU Member States focusing on growth and inflation this year, the economic outlook for the EU has been revised up from the Commission's spring 2010 forecast. Real GDP growth is now projected at 1.8% in the EU and 1.7% in the euro area in 2010. Upward revisions are reported for all seven Member States considered in this interim forecast and notably so for Germany, where the underlying dynamics appear to have gained much more strength than earlier anticipated. Notwithstanding exchange-rate developments and the recent weather-related price increases of some agro-commodities, slack in the economy, subdued wage growth and low inflation expectations are keeping inflation in check. The inflation forecasts for 2010 are broadly unchanged, with HICP inflation projected at 1.8% and 1.4% in the EU and euro area respectively.Amid continued high uncertainty, risks to the EU growth outlook remain elevated, even if they are broadly balanced.Graph 1: Softer GDP growth aheadSource: European CommissionGraph 2: Continued subdued HICP inflationSource: European Commission2Interim forecast September 2010Global recovery loosing momentumThe world economy recovered by more than expected in the first half of 2010, led by strong growth in emerging market economies, particularly in Asia. World trade also performed strongly, with trade in goods returning to pre-recession levels by mid-year. Despite some loss of momentum in the second quarter, annual growth in global trade (excl. EU) is now expected to average around 12% in 2010 in volume terms, up from about 10% in the spring forecast.Looking ahead, the global economy is set to moderate somewhat in the second half of 2010, although a 'double-dip' seems unlikely. This follows from the expected weaker support from inventory building going forward and the phasing out of stimulus measures. Leading indicators, such as the global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, though remaining in expansion territory, have declined in recent months, suggesting that the global manufacturing cycle has peaked in the second quarter. Despite the expected soft patch, global GDP (excl. EU) is projected to grow by some 5% in 2010, up by ¼ pp. compared to the spring forecast.Graph 3: Softening global growth and trade-15-10-55100001020304050607080910113035404550556065World trade, CPB (ma3, LHS)Global PMI - manufacturing output (ma3, RHS)Source: CPB - Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, European CommissionThe global recovery is still expected to be uneven and is surrounded by major uncertainties. On the one hand, growth in emerging economies remainsrobust, supported by the rebound in global trade, commodity price developments and solid domestic demand. On the other hand, the recovery is still fragile in several advanced economies. While investment in equipment should continue to benefit with some lag from the increase in global demand, consumption remains constrained in these economies. Moreover, the resurfacing of global imbalances, high debt levels and lingering tensions in sovereign-debt markets are also weighing on the outlook.Financial markets affected by a retreat from riskOver the last few months, financial markets have partly recovered from the sovereign-debt crisis, though significant challenges remain in place. With concerns about the strength of the economic recovery increasing in some parts of the world, a retreat from risk has become a key determinant of financial-market developments.While sovereign-bond spreads in most European countries have narrowed somewhat since May 2010, they are still significantly above the levels seen at the beginning of the year. More recently, benchmark sovereign-bond yields have fallen to historic lows in the EU, with spreads vis-à-vis German bunds widening again in some Member States. Similarly, corporate-bond spreads have narrowed since May, but also remain substantially above their levels of early 2010. New bond issuance has resumed on the back of mostly better-than-expected corporate results. With concerns about sovereign debt receding, markets' attention has shifted from banks' solvency positions to banks' refinancing risk.Bank credit provision to the economy has come into focus over the past months. So far lending growth to households has remained very moderate in the euro area and the UK, whereas bank credit to non-financial corporations continued to shrink over the summer. The latest ECB survey provides evidence of renewed tightening of bank credit standards, at least for enterprises. The reported factors behind this are renewed constraints in banks' access to funding and liquidity management, owing to tensions in sovereign-debt markets. These developments suggest that support from the credit side to the economic recovery could materialise somewhat later than envisaged in the spring.3Interim forecast September 2010Improved prospects for the EU economyThe recovery of the EU economy gained ground in the second quarter of 2010. GDP growth picked up sharply, by 1.0% q-o-q in both regions, after growth of just 0.3% in the first quarter. This outcome was above the consensus estimate (which was 0.6% for the euro area) and the Commission's spring forecast (0.4%).While exports continued to support the recovery, expanding by a sizeable 4%, the second quarter also saw a rebalancing of growth towards domestic demand. Indeed, the contribution of private investment and consumption to GDP growth (0.6 pp. in the EU and euro area) exceeded the combined contributions of inventories and net exports (0.3 pp.). As expected in the spring, the second quarter figure also partly reflects temporary factors, such as a technical rebound in construction activity following the harsh winter.Graph 4: A rebalancing of EU growth across demandcomponents-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.507Q108Q109Q110Q1Inventories Net exportsDomestic demand (excl. inventories)GDP (q-o-q%)Source: European CommissionLooking ahead, GDP growth is set to moderate in the second half of the year. This stems from the expected softening in the global economy, along with the fading of the temporary factors that kick-started the recovery.Based on an update of the outlook for the seven largest Member States, GDP is now expected to expand by 0.5% in the EU and euro area in the third quarter, and by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively in the fourth. This represents a slight upward revisioncompared to the quarterly profile presented in the spring forecast, on account of some spill-over of the momentum from the second quarter.High-frequency indicators support the improved outlook for the EU economy. For instance, the Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) has recovered from the adverse impact of tensions in financial and sovereign-bond markets in May-June, to currently stand above its long-term average. Similarly, the composite PMI remains firmly in the zone that indicates expansion, despite a slight easing in August. As for sectoral patterns, the broad-based nature of the latest survey readings is also encouraging. It suggests that the expected spill-over from the export-led industrial rebound to the rest of the economy is gradually materialising.Graph 5: Brighter prospects for EU equipment investment-12-10-8-6-4-20240001020304050607080910-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012Equipment investment (LHS)Industrial confidence (ma3, RHS)*ma3=3 months moving averageSource: European CommissionFurther support to the view that the recovery is broadening can be found in data that are closely correlated with developments in private investment and consumption. For example, the degree of capacity utilisation is approaching a level (just above 80) which traditionally implies expanding equipment investment in the euro area. At the same time, the profit situation of firms has improved. On the consumption side, while disposable income remains weak, the decline in the household saving rate from its peak during the crisis, subdued inflation and stabilising labour-market conditions bode well for consumer spending in the near term.4Interim forecast September 2010Graph 6: Private consumption expanding again in the euroarea-0,9-0,6-0,30,00,30,60,91,21,51,80001020304050607080910121314151617Private consumption (LHS)Source: European CommissionGrowth forecast for the EU economy revised upFor 2010 as a whole, GDP growth is now forecast at 1.8% in the EU and 1.7% in the euro area. This represents a sizeable upward revision compared to the spring forecast (1.0% for the EU and 0.9% for the euro area), reflecting a higher carry-over from the first half of the year and the elements discussed above. However, this aggregate picture masks uneven developments across Member States, confirming the Commission's expectation of a multi-speed recovery within the EU. This is not surprising given differences in the scale of adjustment challenges and ongoing rebalancing within the EU and euro area.Inflation in the EU to remain moderateConsumer price inflation increased moderately in the first half of 2010. This upward trend reflected an increase in global commodity prices, as well as the impact of upward base effects from the food and energy components.Euro-area headline HICP inflation rose to 1.5% in the second quarter of 2010, in line with the spring forecast. Core inflation (i.e. HICP inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food) appears to have bottomed out at 0.8% in the same period, decreasing from 1.5% one year earlier. In the EU, headline inflation was 2.0% in the second quarter, 0.3 pp. higher than in the spring forecast, largely due to a surprise in the UK.Weak labour-market conditions kept wage growth subdued in the euro area in the first quarter of 2010. At the same time, annual unit-labour-cost growth was negative, reflecting improving productivity and only modest growth in compensation per employee.Looking ahead, the headline inflation rate for 2010 is expected to hold at 1.8% in the EU, while in the euro area it is marginally revised down to 1.4% (-0.1 pp. compared to the spring forecast). However, within the euro area, projected developments are somewhat divergent, with France being the only Member State with an upward revision, following increases in administered prices. Outside the euro area, inflation has been revised up, in particular in the UK on account of a stronger-than-expected pass-through to the headline inflation rate from exchange-rate and commodity-price developments, as well as due to changes in indirect taxation.Graph 7: EU underlying inflation remains subdued1.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.000010203040506070809106.57.07.58.08.59.09.510.0Core inflation (HICP excl. energy and unproc. food, LHS)Unemployment rate (RHS)y-o-y%% of labour force (inverted scale)Source: European CommissionDespite revisions at the Member State level, the underlying inflation trends identified in the spring forecast remain valid. The remaining slack in the economy and weak labour market conditions are expected to keep core inflation at historically low levels, while the headline rate may prove to be volatile in the second half of 2010, driven both by changes in commodity prices related to the outlook in advanced economies and base effects.Interim forecast September 2010Brighter growth outlook bodes well for the labour market and public financesIn keeping with the usual pattern – whereby labour- market developments follow those of GDP with a time lag of half a year or more – the labour-market situation has started to stabilise in recent months. The first quarter of 2010 saw job shedding ease to 0.2% q-o-q in the EU (from some 0.8% a year earlier) and come to an end in the euro area. Similarly, the unemployment rate has held steady since the spring, at 9.6% in the EU and 10.0% in the euro area.As for the outlook, survey indicators of firms' employment expectations point to moderate job creation going forward, as does the PMI employment index which crossed the 50-mark in May. Taken together with the strong upward revision to economic growth in 2010, it seems that the labour market may hold up somewhat better this year than expected at the time of the spring forecast. Nonetheless, conditions are set to remain weak, reflecting, inter alia, the partial unwinding of support measures and ongoing structural adjustment across sectors and firms. At Member State level, a continuation of the divergence observed to date in labour-market performance is also expected. Turning to public finances, additional consolidation measures taken since the publication of the spring forecast and the better-than-expected growth outlook will help improve the 2010 budgetary position in the EU and euro area.A full assessment of prospects for public finances and the labour market will be carried out in the Commission's upcoming autumn forecast.High uncertainty, but broadly balanced risks Uncertainty at the current juncture is high, with non-negligible risks to the EU growth outlook clearly evident. While these risks go in both directions, they appear broadly balanced for 2010. On the upside, the impetus from the export-led industrial rebound to private consumption could prove stronger than assumed in the baseline, as was the case in the first half of the year. The broad-based improvement in sentiment indicators of late bodes well for a similar outcome in the period ahead. Moreover, in so far as the labour market continues to surprise on the upside – as it has done for some time now – the feed-through to private consumption could be even more pronounced. The materialisation of these risks would add to the self-sustainability of the EU recovery. Likewise, the spill-over to be expected from the pick-up in activity in Germany to other Member States may materialise to a greater extent than expected at present, further strengthening the recovery.On the downside, softening global demand in the second part of 2010 – beyond that allowed for in the baseline – poses a risk for EU export growth. Second, the still relatively fragile financial-market situation remains a concern. While markets have recovered somewhat from the recent crisis, renewed turbulence in sovereign-debt markets could trigger further increases in funding costs and additional credit tightening, with adverse consequences for confidence and economic activity. A third downside risk relates to the fiscal consolidation underway in a number of Member States. This should help dissipate market concerns about fiscal sustainability, but may weigh more on domestic demand in the short term than currently envisaged. Regarding the inflation outlook, risks also appear to be broadly balanced for 2010. While strengthening activity and a weaker than previously assumed euro represent upside risks, weak labour-market conditions, as well as low inflation expectations, suggest that these pressures are likely to be offset in the near term.5Interim forecast September 2010Growth and inflation prospects in the seven largest Member States1. Germany – strong recovery becoming more broad-basedThe German economy has rebounded vigorously from the crisis, posting five consecutive quarters of robust growth since the second quarter of 2009. Despite the harsh weather conditions around the turn of 2009-10, the underlying growth momentum remained largely intact and turned out considerably stronger than projected in the Commission's spring forecast. A brisk rebound in world trade and expansionary monetary and fiscal policy were the main driving forces behind this turnaround. The initially largely export-driven recovery is increasingly becoming more broad-based with domestic demand contributing more strongly to growth in the second quarter than net exports.In the second quarter of 2010 real GDP growth culminated at over 2%, the highest quarterly rate since reunification. A particularly sharp increase in exports and a surge in construction activity – reflecting a rebound after the impact of severe winter weather and the kicking-in of public infrastructure projects as part of the fiscal stimulus – contributed to this exceptionally brisk pace. The weaker economic outlook for the US and a possible moderation of growth in Asia are likely to imply a softening of the export dynamics in the second half of the year. However, domestic demand components are set to gather further strength and to sustain a relatively lively recovery. The robust labour market which, despite the scope of the downturn, was barely affected should boost household confidence. Thus, private consumption will continue to be buoyed by falling unemployment, stronger wage growth as working hours are being extended again, still moderate inflation and fiscal relief measures. Rising capacity utilisation, low interest rates and the strong financial position of the corporate sector should support private investment activity, which will additionally be boosted by the expiry of favourable depreciation rules at the end of the year. Hence, despite some slowdown in the quarterly growth rates, real GDP is projected to grow by close to 3½% in 2010. Despite higher energy prices and a depreciation of the euro, HICP inflation has remained contained so far and is expected to accelerate only moderately in the coming months. Annual average HICP inflation is projected at just above 1.0% this year.2. Spain – temporary setback in mid-2010 Economic activity in 2010 is forecast to decline by 0.3% following a fall of3.7% in the previous year. Specifically, the first and second quarters of 2010 recorded positive quarterly growth, largely driven by temporary factors, though these positive effects will fade over the second half of the year.The VAT-rate increase which became effective on 1 July, led to a front-loading of consumption plans from the second to the first half of 2010, which seems consistent with the deterioration observed in retail sales in the third quarter. After growing significantly in the beginning of the year, car sales are also dropping sharply in the third quarter, reflecting the end of the car-scrapping schemes. Thus, private consumption is projected to contract in the second half of the year. Investment will remain weak: while the ongoing adjustment in the housing sector is projected to continue, public investment is set to fall as a result of the cut in public spending scheduled for the second half of 2010. Therefore, quarterly GDP growth is expected to record a temporary fall in the third quarter, but should turn positive in the fourth. For the year as a whole, domestic demand is set to lower GDP growth by nearly 1¼ pps.In the external sector, exports recorded better-than-expected growth at the beginning of 2010, consistent with the recovery of world demand. However, the growth contribution of net exports is expected to be close to 1 pp. compared to 2.7 pps. in 2009 as a result of an important rebound of imports in 2010, driven by a positive evolution of final demand.The inflation rate continued to increase, to 1¼% and above 1½% in the two first quarters of 2010 respectively. It is expected to rise to 1¾% at the end of the year, with an annual average of just above 1½% for 2010, on the back of higher oil prices and the VAT hike. After a significant increase in 2009, real wages are expected to stagnate in 2010,67Interim forecast September 2010following higher inflation and lower nominal wage increases included in recent agreements.Graph 8: Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) and components: differences from the long-term averages(last obs. Aug. 2010)-50-40-30-20-1001020ES NL IT PL FR EA UK EU DEManufacturing Services Consumers Construction Retail ESISource: European Commission3. France – gradual recovery on the back of subdued demandThe French economy has been gradually recovering from recession since the second quarter of last year. For 2009 as a whole, however, it experienced a significant decline of GDP (-2.6%), though less so than the euro area (-4.1%). This was mainly due to the absence of major domestic imbalances, relatively large economic stabilisers, the comparatively low degree of openness of the economy, combined with the limited size of the manufacturing sector, as well as the resilience of private consumption. Unlike the case in several other EU countries, there has been almost no acceleration in growth in the first half of 2010, with GDP expanding at an average quarter-on-quarter rate of 0.4%. In the second quarter of 2010, activity grew by 0.6% q-o-q. As before, domestic demand was the main driver of growth, complemented by the impact of a deceleration in destocking. In spite of the recovery in world trade and the depreciation of the euro, net trade was a drag on growth, as imports expanded strongly.The same structural features that partly shielded the French economy during the crisis will continue to contain the pace of expansion. Although business climate indicators are close to their long-termaverage, they have recently levelled off and remain below their historical recovery levels. This suggests a slowdown of economic expansion compared to the second quarter of 2010. Domestic demand is also set to grow at a moderate pace because the inventory cycle is becoming less supportive. Private consumption will mirror the weakness of disposable income and the after-effects of the car-scrapping premium. Investment growth should be limited given still large spare capacity. The still favourable developments in world trade combined with the euro depreciation are expected to have a positive but limited effect . All in all, GDP is likely to grow by 0.4% and 0.3% in the third and fourth quarter respectively, implying an annual growth rate of 1.6% for 2010 as a whole.HICP inflation reached 1.8% in the second quarter as the rise in oil prices was amplified by a base effect from last year. In 2010, inflation is set to average 1.6% while core inflation is expected to remain subdued. The high unemployment rate and the need for firms to remain competitive in an export-led recovery are likely to weigh on prices.4. Italy – exports contribute to a moderate upturnItaly's real GDP expanded by almost ½ pp. in both the first and the second quarter of 2010 and is expected to grow by 1.1% in the year as a whole. The 0.3 pp. upward revision compared with the Commission's spring 2010 forecast is explained by the better-than-anticipated growth impulse from external demand and a revised 2009 quarterly growth profile.The moderate recovery of the Italian economy is projected to be mainly driven by the industrial sector, thanks to the rebound in exports after the collapse recorded in 2009. The upturn in external demand is providing some support to investment in equipment, which also benefited from tax incentives that expired at the end of June. By contrast, investment in construction is expected to remain weak in the coming quarters. Finally, the still fragile labour-market situation is set to continue weighing on the dynamics of private consumption.As regards the quarterly profile of GDP growth, the most recent data on industrial production andInterim forecast September 2010business confidence suggest economic expansion in the third quarter of 2010 to continue at broadly the same pace as in the first two quarters of the year. The recovery is then projected to ease somewhat in the last quarter of 2010, due to the expected deceleration in global demand.The short-term outlook for the Italian economy appears subject to both upside and downside risks. On the one hand, global demand could prove stronger than anticipated, with positive spillovers also for firms' investment. On the other hand, possible renewed tensions and uncertainty in financial markets might affect economic agents' confidence.After declining markedly in 2009, HICP inflation picked up in the first half of 2010, due to the fading of favourable base effects from energy prices. In 2010 as a whole, inflation is projected to increase to 1.6% on average. This is 0.2 pp. lower than in the Commission's spring 2010 forecast, mainly because of less dynamic commodity prices.5. The Netherlands – maintaining moderate momentumThe recovery of the Dutch economy, which started in the second half of 2009, gained momentum in the first half of 2010, resulting in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% and 0.9% in the first and second quarter, respectively. Economic activity benefitted from a strong upswing in the inventory cycle and a rebound of investment in the second quarter, due mainly to a replacement of equipment. Although exports proved to be an important growth driver again – taking advantage of the acceleration in world trade and reflecting the sensitivity of the Dutch economy to external demand – net exports were a drag on growth, as imports posted even stronger growth in both the first and the second quarter of 2010. Private consumption showed some signs of recovery, especially in the first quarter, but this was in large part due to the low temperatures boosting households' energy consumption.The momentum of economic growth created in the second quarter is expected to continue partially in the third quarter, leading to quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4%. With the fading of some temporary growth drivers, such as stock building, real GDP growth is expected to weaken again in the fourth quarter to 0.3% q-o-q, so that annual real GDP growth is projected to reach 1.9% in 2010. Private consumption is likely to remain subdued throughout the second half of 2010, given a strong and rapid decline in wage growth, as reflected in recent wage agreements. Additionally, limited support for private consumption is expected to stem from labour-market developments, in spite of the latter having outperformed expectations. The positive growth dynamics of investment displayed in the second quarter are likely to slow down, especially towards the end of 2010, reflecting a loss of demand momentum and a below-average capacity utilisation. Net trade is most likely to contribute to growth only moderately, given the expected softening of world-trade growth.The annual HICP inflation rate was historically low in the first half of 2010, reaching 0.4% in the second quarter. It is projected to increase in the third quarter, mainly as a result of a positive contribution of energy prices coming from a base effect. Overall, for 2010, inflation is expected to reach 1.1%.Graph 9: Uneven GDP developments across Member StatesSource: European Commission6. Poland – manufacturing sector leads the recoveryEconomic activity continued to be strong in the second quarter of 2010, with GDP growth reaching 1.1% q-o-q. The upswing was driven by a strong manufacturing sector (industrial production (s.a.) grew by 10.5% y-o-y in the second quarter of 2010)8。
2010年政府工作报告中英文版
2010年政府工作报告2010年3月5日上午9时，第十一届全国人民代表大会第三次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总理温家宝作政府工作报告。
在第十一届全国人民代表大会第三次会议上的政府工作报告国务院总理温家宝2010年3月5日REPORT ON THE WORK OF THE GOVERNMENT--Delivered at the Third Session of the Eleventh National People's Congresson March 5, 2010Wen JiabaoPremier of the State Council各位代表，Fellow Deputies,现在，我代表国务院向大会作政府工作报告，请予审议，并请全国政协各位委员提出意见。
On behalf of the State Council, I now present to you my report on the work of the government for your deliberation and approval. I also invite the members of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) to provide comments and suggestions.一、2009年工作回顾I. Review of Work in 20092009年是新世纪以来我国经济发展最为困难的一年。
去年这个时候，国际金融危机还在扩散蔓延，世界经济深度衰退，我国经济受到严重冲击，出口大幅下降，不少企业经营困难，有的甚至停产倒闭，失业人员大量增加，农民工大批返乡，经济增速陡然下滑。
在异常困难的情况下，全国各族人民在中国共产党的坚强领导下，坚定信心，迎难而上，顽强拼搏，从容应对国际金融危机冲击，在世界率先实现经济回升向好，改革开放和社会主义现代化建设取得新的重大成就。
2010当前世界经济形势
预期欧洲央行将开始逐步取消异常宽松 的流动性措施。
日本
预期日本经济将在2010年上半年再度放 缓，但下半年会重新加速增长。
对过剩供给的调整快于预期而且出口 （尤其对亚洲的出口）扩张，这应该会促 使日本经济在下半年复苏。
鉴于负产出缺口扩大，我们预期在可预 见的未来CPI通缩会一直持续。
印度：鉴于经济增长和通胀双双迈向8%，预期 印度央行会在亚洲各央行中率先出手紧缩货币政 策。
当前世界经济形势
——政策驱动的不同步复苏
全球
受去杠杆化（Deleveraging）和其他危机 后遗留问题的影响，发达经济体看来将复 苏疲软。
由于基本面良好而且没有余波问题的困 扰，新兴经济体（特别是亚洲）将增长强 劲。
充足的剩余产能让发达经济体能够维持 低通胀，但设定汇率目标的央行有可能会 导致泡沫的出现。
作为复苏第一阶段的典型表现，充足的 产能可能会对通胀造成下行压力。
预期美联储将着重于有序退出信贷放松 政策，在20杠杆化而欧元 区的国内动能疲弱无力，我们预期经济增 长将低于平均水平。
财政政策挑战：在可信的中期财政巩固 框架内实施短期的刺激措施。
主要的风险包括再度陷入财务困境、大 宗商品价格泡沫和过早紧缩财政政策。
可能出现的意外：动物精神大行其道， 在货币状况极其宽松的背景下帮助释放了 被压抑的需求。
预期美元将继续贬值（尤其是相对新兴 市场货币。
美国
“大萧条”已经结束，但金融危机的余波 影响可能会继续对经济复苏造成压力。
就业市场正在改善，但经济不确定性应 该会抑制就业增长并让失业率保持高位运 行。
日本央行可能会在2010年上半年采取更 多的数量放松政策。
2010年10月后危机时代的国际国内经济形势
2008年1月-2009年12月中国工业增加值 同比增幅
as % of previous year
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
↗
17.8 15.4 15.4 15.7 16 16 14.7 12.8 11.4 8.2 5.4 5.7 3.8 5.8 6.7 12.8
形 势 好 转
2008年9月15日，雷曼兄弟公司的破产，金融危机爆发。
4、2010年，国际债务危机——世界经济步入后危 机时代
2010年上半年，欧洲政府债务危机爆发。
（一）国际金融危机的爆发。
1、此次国际金融危机缘起于美国房地产泡沫破灭引起 的次贷危机 。 （1）金融危机源于美国房地产发展过快，次级贷款急剧 增加。 （2）贷款公司苦心“避险”， 金融创新，监管不力。 （3）投机基金加入炒作。 （4）投资者的贪婪作祟。 （5）楼市泡沫终被挤破， 金融危机出现。
出口 进口 Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
3、金融危机导致我国投资减少，就业压力增 大。
全世界经济增长速度下滑，尤其是美国、欧元区和 日本经济增长率回落，将导致我国出口增速放缓，从而 会降低我国出口行业的投资需求和影响我国出口行业的 就业。 2009年，我国城镇新增1300万劳动力，600多万大 学毕业生就业情况不容乐观，加上返乡农民工外出务工 难度加大，就业形势十分严峻。
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Global growth will be below potential … Nhomakorabea-2
historical forecast
errors.
-3
Source: UN/DESA.
a Partly estimated.
-4
b United Nations forecast.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009a
2010b
Economic growth by region, 2008-2010
Growth in most developing countries and economies in transition remains highly dependent upon movements in international trade, commodity prices and capital flows. These conditions have improved as part of the global recovery, but a further rebound will be strongly contingent upon the strength of the recovery in the developed countries. In the outlook, conditions for international trade and finance will remain challenging. This will affect the low-income countries in particular. While country-specific conditions differ markedly, the global crisis has undermined investments and, hence, the growth potential of their economies. Many of the least developed countries (LDCs) are expected to see a much slower economic performance in the years ahead compared with the robust growth they witnessed in the years before the crisis.
2
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2010
World economic growth, 2004–2010 Percentage
4
3
2
1
0
Indicates the
confidence interval
-1
at two standard
deviations from
1
Executive Summary
The global economic outlook
The global economy is on the mend …
The world economy is on the mend. After a sharp, broad and synchronized global downturn in late 2008 and early 2009, an increasing number of countries have registered positive quarterly growth of gross domestic product (GDP), along with a notable recovery in international trade and global industrial production. World equity markets have also rebounded and risk premiums on borrowing have fallen.
… with little impetus from developed economies
In developed economies, consumer and investment demand remains subdued as a result of a continued rise in unemployment rates, efforts by households to restore their financial balances following the wealth losses incurred during the crisis, and the reluctance of firms to invest while capacity utilization rates are low and credit supplies remain tight. Furthermore, the impetus from the stimulus measures and the turn in the inventory cycle are expected to diminish over time. The major developed economies are not expected to provide a strong impulse to global growth in the near term, growing at a moderate 1.3 per cent on average in 2010 (a nonetheless visible rebound from the decline of 3.5 per cent in 2009).
World gross product (WGP) is estimated to fall by 2.2 per cent for 2009, the first actual contraction since the Second World War. Premised on a continued supportive policy stance worldwide, a mild growth of 2.4 per cent is forecast in the baseline scenario for 2010. According to this scenario, the level of world economic activity will be 7 per cent below where it might have been had pre-crisis growth continued.
The outlook for employment, poverty and inflation
Unemployment rates are still on the rise
The number of unemployed is rising in most economies. Among developed economies, the number of unemployed has more than doubled in the United States of America since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. The unemployment rates in the euro area and Japan have also increased notably. The actual situation is even worse as it does not include unemployment data for discouraged workers who are unemployed but not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. Unemployment rates in transition economies and developing countries have also moved higher, in particular in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Central and South-eastern Europe.
… but recovery is fragile
The recovery is uneven and conditions for sustained growth remain fragile. Credit conditions are still tight in major developed economies, where many major financial institutions need to continue the process of deleveraging and cleansing their balance-sheets. The rebound in domestic demand remains tentative at best in many economies and is far from self-sustaining. Much of the rebound in the real economy is due to the strong fiscal stimulus provided by Governments in a large number of developed and developing countries and to the restocking of inventories by industries worldwide. Consumption and investment demand remain weak, however, as unemployment and underemployment rates continue to rise and output gaps remain wide in most countries.