布兰查德《宏观经济学》课后习题及详解(预期、产出和政策)【圣才出品】
布兰查德《宏观经济学》章节课后习题详解(预期：基本工具)【圣才出品】
第14章预期：基本工具一、概念题1．名义利率（nominal interest rates）答：名义利率又称“货币利率”，是包含了对通货膨胀风险补偿的利率。
与“实际利率”相对而言，是包括了物价变动的利息率，表现为银行挂牌执行的存款、贷款的利率。
现实的经济生活中物价水平具有不稳定性，并且物价水平的上涨是一种普遍的趋势。
划分名义利率和实际利率的理论意义在于其提供了分析通货膨胀条件下利率变动的工具。
在经济管理中，能操作的是名义利率，但对经济关系产生实质影响的是实际利率。
名义利率近似值的计算公式为：i＝π＋r。
其中，i为名义利率，r为实际利率，π为借贷期内物价的变动率（通货膨胀率）。
由于通货膨胀还会使利息部分贬值，名义利率还应作向上的调整。
这样，名义利率的计算公式可以写成：i＝（1＋π）（1＋P）－1。
名义利率随通货膨胀的变化而变化并非同步的。
由于人们对价格变化的预期往往滞后于通货膨胀的变化，所以相对于通货膨胀率的变化，名义利率的变化也往往有滞后的特点，但也不是绝对的。
2．实际利率（real interest rates）答：实际利率，与“名义利率”相对而言，是指名义利率扣除通货膨胀因素后的利率。
实际利率为正值时，有利于吸收储蓄、降低通货膨胀率；实际利率为负值时，则会减少储蓄、刺激金融投机、恶化通货膨胀。
其计算公式为：1-=+名义利率通货膨胀率实际利率通货膨胀率当通货膨胀率很低时，可近似记为：实际利率＝名义利率－通货膨胀率。
3．通货紧缩陷阱（deflation trap ）答：通货紧缩陷阱是指较低的经济活动水平使经济陷入通货紧缩后，由于与产出下降，实际利率升高将导致投资和消费下降，从而导致产出进一步下降，经济陷入通货紧缩的恶性循环之中的现象。
4．自然利率（natural interest rate ）答：自然利率是指假设所有价格具有充分弹性，令总需求与总供给永远相等时的利率水平，即与产出的自然水平相对应的利率值。
布兰查德《宏观经济学》课后习题及详解(预期：基本工具)【圣才出品】
第14章 预期：基本工具一、概念题1．名义利率（nominal interest rates ）答：名义利率又称“货币利率”，是包含了对通货膨胀风险补偿的利率。
与“实际利率”相对而言，是包括了物价变动的利息率，表现为银行挂牌执行的存款、贷款的利率。
现实的经济生活中物价水平具有不稳定性，并且物价水平的上涨是一种普遍的趋势。
划分名义利率和实际利率的理论意义在于其提供了分析通货膨胀条件下利率变动的工具。
在经济管理中，能操作的是名义利率，但对经济关系产生实质影响的是实际利率。
名义利率近似值的计算公式为：其中，为名义利率，为实际利率，为借贷期内物价的变动率（通货膨胀率）。
由于通货膨胀还会使利息部分贬值，名义利率还应作向上的调整。
这样，名义利率的计算公式可以写成：名义利率随通货膨胀的变化而变化并非同步的。
由于人们对价格变化的预期往往滞后于通货膨胀的变化，所以相对于通货膨胀率的变化，名义利率的变化也往往有滞后的特点，但也不是绝对的。
2．实际利率（real interest rates ）i r π=+i r π()()111i P π=++-答：实际利率，与“名义利率”相对而言，是指名义利率扣除通货膨胀因素后的利率。
实际利率为正值时，有利于吸收储蓄、降低通货膨胀率；实际利率为负值时，则会减少储蓄、刺激金融投机、恶化通货膨胀。
其计算公式为：当通货膨胀率很低时，可近似记为：3．预期贴现值（expected present discounted value ）答：预期贴现值，即贴现值或称现值，是指按现行利率为获得一个既定的未来货币量而在现期所需要的货币量。
现值可用倒求本金的方法计算。
由终值求现值，称为贴现。
在贴现时使用的利息率称为贴现率。
令为第期的价值，为现值，则现值的计算公式可由终值的计算公式导出：上述公式中的称为现值系数或贴现系数，可以写成，现值的计算公式可以写为： 。
4．贴现因子（discount factor ）答：贴现因子也称折现系数、折现参数。
布兰查德《宏观经济学》章节题库(政策制定者是否应当受到限制)【圣才出品】
第24章政策制定者是否应当受到限制一、名词解释1．微调（fine-tuning）答：微调是指政府在宏观调控中，针对经济运行中的小冲击、小波动而相机地作出轻微的政策调整以保持产出和失业恒定的政策行为。
微调是针对经济运行中所发生的较小波动，为防止较大波动的出现而在宏观调控政策及其目标变量上不断地加以小幅度相机调整的政策操作。
通过宏观经济的微调，一方面增强了经济的稳定性，另一方面也起到对经济危机防微杜渐的作用。
由于经济中经常发生的是较小的波动，如果对这些较小的波动不及时采取措施加以调整，就会酿成不稳定因素，因此需要经常地、及时地用小的政策变动来消除经济中的小波动。
微调中应注意政策的时间一致性，前后出台的政策要求做到逻辑一致，不存在内在矛盾。
微调可以是财政政策，也可以是货币政策。
在进行微调时要尽量缩短政策时滞，以便更好地稳定经济。
凯恩斯主义认为，微调政策无论在长期还是在短期中对稳定经济都有积极作用；货币主义者认为，微调政策在短期内有用，但因政策本身的多变和不稳定性，在长期中不仅无用，反而会破坏市场经济本身的稳定机制。
在现实的政策操作中，诸多大型的宏观计量模型对于未来经济前景的预测有时大相径庭，因此如何精确地把握微调的力度和方向是进行微调所面临的重大课题。
2．时间不一致性（time inconsistency）答：时间不一致性又称“动态不一致性”。
政府的一项未来政策，假设没有任何新的有关信息的出现，对于政府来说，在初始的制定阶段是最优选择，而在后来的执行阶段（新的信息出现）就不再是最优选择了，政府改为选择其他的最优政策，这种情况被称为“动态不一致性”。
例如，政府认识到，过高的税率会打击私人部门创造财富的积极性，从而使税基缩小，实际征收到的税收并不多；而较低的税率会刺激私人部门创造财富的积极性，从而使税基扩大，实际征收到的税收会较多。
因此，政府在今年宣布，明年将实行低税率政策。
如果私人部门相信了政府的这一承诺，扩大了明年的生产活动，使其创造的财富（含税基）增加，这时，对于政府来说，再提高税率已不会影响税基的大小，还可以进一步提高实际税收。
布兰查德《宏观经济学》章节课后习题详解(财政政策：一个总结)【圣才出品】
第23章财政政策：一个总结一、概念题1．通货膨胀调整的赤字（inflation-adjusted deficit）答：赤字的正确度量结果有时称作经通货膨胀调整的赤字，是指用实际利息支付度量利息支付——实际利率乘以现有负债，而非事实上的利息支付——名义利率乘以现有负债。
官方用事实上的（名义）利息支付来度量赤字，是不正确的。
当通货膨胀很高时，官方的度量有很大的误导性。
2．周期调整的赤字（cyclically adjusted deficit）答：周期调整的赤字又称充分就业赤字、中周期赤字、标准就业赤字、结构性赤字，是指在现有的税收和支出规则下，如果产出处于自然率水平，赤字应该是多少。
这一方法提供了可以判断财政政策方向的简单基准：如果实际赤字很大，但周期调整的赤字等于零，那么随着时间的推移，当前的财政政策不会导致债务的系统性增加。
只要产出低于自然率水平，债务就会增加。
但是随着产出增加到自然率水平，赤字将会消失，债务将稳定。
3．政府预算约束（government budget constraint）答：政府预算约束可以简单表述为，第t年内政府债务的变化等于第t年的赤字。
B t－B t－1＝赤字t。
上式中，B表示政府债务。
如果政府处于赤字状态，政府债务增加；如果政府处于盈余状态，政府债务减少。
4．自动稳定器（automatic stabilizer）答：自动稳定器指经济活动对赤字的影响，衰退自然导致赤字增加，而赤字增加本身有发挥财政扩张的作用，这将会部分地抵消衰退。
一些财政支出和税收制度就具有某种自动调整经济的灵活性，可以自动配合需求管理，减缓总需求的波动性，从而有助于经济的稳定。
在社会经济生活中，通常具有内在稳定器作用的因素主要包括：个人和公司所得税、失业补助和其他福利转移支付、农产品维持价格以及公司储蓄和家庭储蓄等。
例如，在萧条时期，个人收入和公司利润减少，政府所得税收入自动减少，从而相应增加了消费和投资。
布兰查德《宏观经济学》章节课后习题详解(金融市场和预期)【圣才出品】
第15章 金融市场和预期一、概念题1．收益，到期收益，或者n 年期债券的利率（yield to maturity or n-year interest rate ） 答：到期收益即到期收益率，是指投资者在二级市场上买入已经发行的债券并在持有到期满为止的期限内的年平均收益率。
以息票债券为例，假定某债券当前价格为P ，每年获得的利息支付为D ，债券第T 年到期时的面值为FV ，则到期收益率i 满足：()()()211111n nD D DFV P i i i i -=++++++++即到期收益率是使债券收益的贴现值等于债券价格时的利率。
n 年期债券的利率可以用到期收益率来衡量或表示。
2．违约风险（default risk ）答：违约风险又称为信用风险，是指证券发行人在证券到期时无法还本付息而使投资者遭到损失的风险。
违约风险受发行人的经营能力、盈利水平、规模大小等因素影响。
违约风险对股票、债券均有影响，但对债券影响更大，因为债券是一种需要按约定时间还本付息的证券。
债券的违约风险从低到高依次为政府债券、地方政府债券、金融债券、公司债券。
3．期限（maturity ）答：期限是债券期限的简称，指从债券发行一直到债券到期的时间间隔。
企业通常根据资金需求的期限、未来市场利率走势、流通市场的发达程度、债券市场上的其他债券的期限情况、投资者的偏好等多种因素来确定发行债券的期限结构。
各种债券有不同的偿还期限，短则几个月，长则几十年，根据偿还期限的不同，债券可分为长期债券、短期债券和中期债券。
一般来说，偿还期限在10年以上的为长期债券；偿还期限在1年以下的为短期债券；期限在1年或1年以上、10年以下（包括10年）的为中期债券；10年以上的为长期债券。
当资金需求量较大，债券流通较发达，利率有上升趋势时，可发行长期债券，否则，应发行短期债券。
4．收益曲线（yield curve）答：收益曲线是指反映债券收益与债券到期时间之间函数关系的曲线，是进行货币金融分析的有力工具。
《宏观经济学》课后答案(布兰查德版)
Chapter 11. a.True. b.True. c.False. d.True. e.False. f.False.2. a. 1960-98 1997-99-------------------US 3.1% 3.8%EU 3.1% 2.5%Japan 5.8%-1.0%While the US growth rate higher than its long-run average over the period, the growth rate has slowed relative to long-run averages in both the EU and Japan over the last few years.b. Sometimes the economy is growing quickly, other times it is growing slowly or even contracting. The last few years of rapid growth in the US do not imply that the long-run average rate of growth has increased back to its pre-1974 level.3. a. The data in the web page are: Real Gross Domestic Product,Real Final Sales of Domestic Product, and Real Gross National Product, Quarterly, 1959-96[Percent change from preceding quarter]--------------------------------------------------------Gross Final sales Grossdomestic of domestic nationalproduct product product-------------------------------------------------------1959: I 8.6 9.2 8.6II11.27.311.1III-0.3 5.3-0.2IV 1.7-1.3 1.91996: I 1.8 2.6 1.8II 6.0 5.2 5.7III 1.00.20.6IV 4.3 4.5 4.9--------------------------------------------------------suggesting that recessions typically last two-three quarters and that the most severe recessions in that period were the recessions of 1974-75 and 1981-82.b. Percentage Changes in:Output GrowthInflation1968: 4.7 4.4I7.5 4.7II7.1 4.1III 3.0 3.8IV 1.8 5.51969: 3.0 4.7I 6.2 3.8II 1.0 5.0III 2.3 5.8IV-2.0 5.11970: 0.1 5.3I-0.7 6.0II0.6 5.7III 3.7 3.4IV-3.9 5.41971: 3.3 5.2I11.3 6.4II 2.3 5.5III 2.6 4.4IV 1.1 3.3If history simply repeats itself, the United States might have a short recession (lasting perhaps oneyear) accompanied by an acceleration in the rate of inflation by about one percentage point.4. a. Banking services, business services.b. Not only has the relative demand for skilled workers increased but the industries wherethis effect is the strongest are making up a greater fraction of the economy.5. 1. Low unemployment might lead to an increase in inflation.2. Although measurement error certainly contributes to the measured slowdown ingrowth, there are other issues to consider as well, including the productivity of newresearch and accumulation of new capital.3. Although labor market rigidities may be important, it is also important to consider thatthese rigidities may not be excessive, and that high unemployment may arise from flawed macroeconomic policies.4. Although there were serious problems with regard to the management of Asian financial systems, it is important to consider the possibility that the flight of foreign capital from thesecountries worsened the situation by causing a severe stock market crash and exchange rate depreciation.5. Although the Euro will remove obstacles to free trade between European countries,each country will be forced to give up its own monetary policy.* 6. a. From Chapter 1: US output 1997=$8b; Ch ina output 1996=$.84b. Note that China’s outputin 1997 is $(.84)*(1.09) b. Equating output for some time t in the future:8*(1.03)t=(.84*1.09)*(1.09)t8/(.84*1.09)=(1.09/1.03)t8.737=(1.058)tt =ln(8.737)/ln(1.058) H38yrsb. From Chapter 1: US output/worker in 1997=$29,800; China output/per worker in1996=$70029.8*(1.03)t=(.7*1.09)*(1.09)tt H65 yearsChapter 21. a. False.b. Uncertain: real or nominalGDP. c. True.d. True.e. False. The level of the CPI means nothing. Its rate of change tells us about inflation.f. Uncertain. Which index is better depends on what we are trying to measure—inflationfacedby consumers or by the economy as a whole.2. a. +$100; Personal ConsumptionExpenditures b. nochange:intermediategoodc. +$200 million; Gross PrivateDomesticFixedInvestmentd. +$200 million; Net Exportse. no change: the jet was already counted when it was produced, i.e., presumably whenDelta(or some other airline) bought it new as an investment.*3. a. Measured GDP increases by $10+$12=$22.b. True GDP should increase by much less than $22 because by working for an extra hour,you are no longer producing the work of cooking within the house. Since cooking within the house is a final service, it should count as part of GDP. Unfortunately, it is hard to measure the value of work within the home, which is why measured GDP does not include it.4. a. $1,000,000 the value of the silver necklaces.b. 1st Stage:$300,000.2ndStage:$1,000,00-$300,000=$700,000.GDP: $300,000+$700,000=$1,000,000.c. Wages: $200,000 + $250,000=$450,000.Profits: ($300,000-$200,000)+($1,000,000-$250,000-300,000)=$100,000+$450,000=$550,000.GDP:$450,000+$550,000=$1,000,000.5. a. 1998 GDP: 10*$2,000+4*$1,000+1000*$1=$25,0001999 GDP: 12*$3,000+6*$500+1000*$1=$40,000Nominal GDP has increased by 60%.b. 1998 real (1998) GDP: $25,0001999 real (1998) GDP: 12*$2,000+6*$1,000+1000*$1=$31,000Real (1998) GDP has increased by 24%.c. 1998 real (1999) GDP: 10*$3,000+4*$500+1,000*$1=$33,0001999 real (1999) GDP: $40,000.Real (1999) GDP has increased by 21.2%.d. True.6. a. 1998 base year:Deflator(1998)=1; Deflator(1999)=$40,000/$31,000=1.29Inflation=29%b. 1999 base year:Deflator(1998)=$25,000/$33,000=0.76; Deflator(1999)=1Inflation=(1-0.76)/0.76=.32=32% c. Yes7. a. 1998 real GDP = 10*$2,500 + 4*$750 + 1000*$1 = $29,0001999 real GDP = 12*$2,500 + 6*$750 + 1000*$1 = $35,500b. (35,500-29,000)/29,000 = .224 = 22.4%c. Deflator in 1998=$25,000/$29,000=.86Deflator in 1999=$40,000/$35,500=1.13Inflation = (1.13 -.86)/.86 = .314 = 31.4%.8. a. The quality of a routine checkup improves over time. Checkups now may includeEKGs, for example. Medical services are particularly affected by this problem due toconstant improvements in medical technology.b. You need to know how the market values pregnancy checkups with and withoutultra-sounds in that year.c. This information is not available since all doctors adopted the new technologysimultaneously. Still, you can tell that the quality adjusted increase will be lower than20%.*9. a. approximately 2.5% b. 1992 real GDP growth: 2.7%;unemployment rate Jan 92: 7.3%; unemployment rate Jan 93: 7.3%Supports Okun's law because the unemployment rate does not change when the growth rate of real GDP is near 2.5% c. -2 percentage points change in the unemployment rate; 5percent GDP growth d. The growth rate of GDP must increase by 2.5 percentage points.Chapter 31. a. True.b. False. Government spending was 18% if GDP without transfers.c. False. The propensity to consume must be less than one for our model to be welldefined.d.True.false.f. False. The increase in output is one times the multiplier.2. a. Y=160+0.6*(Y-100)+150+150 0.4Y=460-60 Y=1000b. Y D=Y-T=1000-100=900c. C=160+0.6*(900)=7003. a. No. The goods market is not in equilibrium. Frompart 2a, Demand=1000=C+I+G=700+150+150b. Yes. The goods market is in equilibrium.c. No. Private saving=Y-C-T=200. Public saving =T-G=-50. National saving (or inshort, saving) equals private plus public saving, or 150. National saving equalsinvestment.4. a. Roughly consistent. C/Y=700/1000=70%; I/Y=G/Y=150/1000=15%.b. Approximately -2%.c. Y needs to fall by 2%, or from 1000 to 980. The parameter c0needs to fall by20/multiplier,or by 20*(.4)=8. So c0needs to fall from 160 to 152.d. The change in c0(-8) is less than the change in GDP (-20) due to the multiplier.5. a. Y increases by 1/(1-c1) b. Y decreases by c1/(1- c1)c. The answers differ because spending affects demand directly, but taxes affectdemand through consumption, and the propensity to consume is less than one.d. The change in Y equals 1/(1-c1) - c1/(1- c1) = 1. Balanced budget changes in G and Tare not macroeconomically neutral.e. The propensity to consume has no effect because the balanced budget tax increase abortsthe multiplier process. Y and T both increase by on unit, so disposable income, and hence consumption, do not change.*6. a. The tax rate ilessthanone.b.Y=c0+c1Y D+I+G impliesY=[1/(1-c1+c1t1)]*[c0-c1t0+I+G]c. The multiplier = 1/(1-c1+c1t1) <1/(1- c1), so the economy responds less to changes inautonomous spending when t1is positive.d. Because of the automatic effect of taxes on the economy, the economy responds less tochanges in autonomous spending than in the case where taxes are independent of income. So output tends to vary less, and fiscal policy is called an automatic stabilizer.*7. a. Y=[1/(1-c1+c1t1)]*[c0-c1t0+I+G] b. T = c1t0+ t1*[1/(1-c1+c1t1)]*[c0-c1t0+I+G]c. Both Y and T decrease.d. If G is cut, Y decreases even more.Chapter 41.a.True.b.Fals.c.True.d.True.e.False.f.False.g.True.2. a. i=0.05: Money demand = $18,000; Bond demand = $32,000i=.1: Money demand = $15,000; Bond demand = $35,000b. Money demand decreases when the interest rate increases; bond demand increases. Thisis consistent with the text.c. The demand for money falls by 50%. d. The demand formoney falls by 50%.e. A 1% increase (decrease) in income leads to a 1% increase (decrease) in money demand.This effect is independent of the interest rate.3. a. i=100/$P B–1; i=33%; 18%; 5% when $P B=$75; $85; $95.b. Negative.c. $P B=100/(1.08) $934. a. $20=M D=$100*(.25-i) i=5%b. M=$100*(.25-.15)M=$105. a. B D= 50,000 - 60,000 (.35-i)An increase in the interest rate of 10% increases bond demand $6,000.b. An increase in wealth increases bond demand, but has no effect on money demand.c. An increase in income increases money demand, but decreases bond demand.d. When people earn more income, this does not change their wealth right away. Thus,they increase their demand for money and decrease their demand for bonds.6. a. Demand for high-powered money=0.1*$Y*(.8-4i)b. $100 b = 0.1*$5,000b*(.8-4i) i=15%c. M=(1/.1)*$100 b=$1,000 b M= M d at the interest derived in part b.6. d. If H increases to $300, falls to 5%.e. M=(1/.1)*$300 b=$3,000 b7. a. $16 is withdrawn on each trip to the bank.Money holdings—day one: $16; day two: $12; day three: $8; day four: $4.b. Average money holdings are $10.c. $8 dollar withdrawals; money holdings of $8; $4; $8; $4.d. Average money holdings are $6.e. $16 dollar withdrawals; money holdings of $0; $0; $0; $16.f. Average money holdings are $4.g. Based on these answers, ATMs and credit cards have reduced money demand.8. a. velocity=1/(M/$Y)=1/L(i)b. Velocity roughly doubled between the mid 1960s and the mid 1990s.c. ATMS and credit cards reduced L(i) so velocity increased.Chapter 51.a.Trub.Truc.Fal.d. False. The balanced budget multiplier is positive (it equals one), so the IS curve shiftsright.e. False.f. Uncertain. An increase in G leads to an increase in Y (which tends to increaseinvestment), but an increase in the interest rate (which tends to reduce investment).g. True.*2. Firms deciding how to use their own funds will compare the return on bonds to the return on investment. When the interest rate on bonds increases, they become more attractive, and firms are more likely to use their funds to purchase bonds, rather than to finance investment projects.a.Y=[1/(1-c1)]*[c0-c1T+I+G]The multiplier is 1/(1-c1).b. Y=[1/(1-c1-b1)]*[c0-c1T+ b0-b2i +G]The multiplier is 1/(1-c1-b1). Since the multiplier is larger than the multiplier in part a, the effect of a change in autonomous spending is bigger than in part a.c. Substituting for the interest rate in the answer to partb: Y=[1/(1-c1-b1+ b2d1/d2)]*[c0-c1T+ b0+(b2*M/P)/d2+G]The multiplier is 1/(1-c1-b1+ b2d1/d2).d. The multiplier is greater (less) than the multiplier in part a if (b1- b2d1/d2) is greater (less)than zero. The multiplier is big if b1is big, b2is small, d1is small, and/or d2is big, i.e., if investment is very sensitive to Y, investment is not very sensitive to i, money demand is not very sensitive to Y, money demand is very sensitive to i.4. a. The IS curve shifts left. Output and the interest rate fall. The effect on investmentis ambiguous because the output and interest rate effects work in opposite directions: the fall in output tends to reduce investment, but the fall in the interest rate tends to increase it.b. From 3c: Y=[1/(1-c1-b1)]*[c0-c1T+ b0-b2i +G]c. From the LM relation: i= Y*d1/d2–(M/P)/d2To obtain the equilibrium interest rate, substitute for Y from part b.d. I= b0+ b1Y- b2i= b0+ b1Y- b2Y* d1/d2+ b2(M/P)/d2To obtain equilibrium investment, substitute for Y from part b.e. Holding M/P constant, I increases with equilibrium output when b1>b2d1/d2.Since a decrease in G reduces output, the condition under which a decrease in G increases investment is b1<b2d1/d2.f. The interpretation of the condition in part e is that the effect on I from Y has to be lessthan the effect from i after controlling for the endogenous response of i and Y, determined by the slope of the LM curve, d1/d2.5. a. Y=C+I+G=200+.25*(Y-200)+150+.25Y-1000i+250Y=1100-2000ib.M/P=1600=2Y-8000i i=Y/4000-1/5c. Substituting b into a: Y=1000d. Substituting c into b: i=1/20=5%e. C=400; I=350; G=250; C+I+G=1000f. Y=1040; i=3%; C=410; I=380. A monetary expansion reduces the interest rate andincreases output. The increase in output increases consumption. The increase in output and the fall in the interest rate increase investment.g. Y=1200; i=10%; C=450; I=350. A fiscal expansion increases output and the interestrate. The increase in output increases consumption.h. The condition from problem 3 is satisfied with equality (.25=1000*(2/8000)), socontractionary fiscal policy will have no effect on investment. When G=100: i=0%;Y=800; I=350; and C=350.*6. a. The LM curve is flatb. Japan was experiencing a liquidity trap. c. Fiscal policy is more effective.7. a. Increase G (or reduce T) and increase M.b. Reduce G (or increase T) and increase M. The interest rate falls. Investment increases,since the interest rate falls while output remains constant.CHAPTER 61.a.Fals.b.Fals.c.Falsd.False.Truf.Falsg.Uncertaih.True.i. False.2. a. (Monthly hires+monthly separations)/monthly employment =6/93.8=6.4%b. 1.6/6.5=25%c. 2.4/6.5=37%. Duration is 1/.37 or 2.7 months.d. 4.9/57.3=9%.e. new workers: .35/4.9=7%; retirees: .2/4.9=4%.3. a and b. Answers will depend on when the page is accessed.c. The decline in unemployment does not equal the increase in employment, because thelabor force is not constant. It has increased over the period.4. a. 66%; 66%*66%*66%= 29%; (66%)6= 8%b. (66%)6= 8%c. (for 1998): 875/6210= .145. a. Answers will vary.b and c. Most likely, the job you will have ten years later will pay a lot more thanyour reservation wage at the time (relative to your typical first job).d. The later job is more likely to require training and will probably be a much harderjob to monitor. So, as efficiency wage theory suggests, your employer will be willing to pay a lot more than your reservation wage for the later job, to ensure low turnover and low shirking.6. a. The computer network administrator has more bargaining power. She is muchharder to replace.6. b. The rate of unemployment is a key statistic. For example, when there are manyunemployed workers it becomes easier for firms to find replacements. This reduces the bargaining power of workers.7. a. W/P=1/(1+ )=1/1.05=.95 b. Price setting: u=1-W/P=5%c. W/P=1/1.1=.91; u=1-.91=9%. The increase in the markup lowers the real wage.From the wage-setting equation, the unemployment rate must rise for the real wage to fall.So the natural rate increases.CHAPTER 71.a.Trub.Trc.Falsd.Fale.Truf.Falg.Fal2. a. IS right, AD right, AS up, LM up, Y same, i up, P upb. IS left, AD left, AS down, LM down, Y same, i down, P down3. a.WS PS AS AD LM IS Y i PShort run:up same up same up same down up upMedium run:up same up same up same down up upb.WS PS AS AD LM IS Y i PShort run:same up down same down same up down downMedium run:same up down same down same up down down4. a. After an increase in the level of the money supply, output and the interest-rate eventually return to the same level. However, monetary policy is useful, because it can accelerate the return to the natural level of output.b. In the medium run, investment and the interest rate both change with fiscal policy.c. False. Labor market policies, such as unemployment insurance, can affect the naturallevel of output.*5. a. Open answer. Firms may be so pessimistic about sales that they do not want to borrow at any interest rate.b. The IS curve is vertical; the interest rate does not affect equilibrium output.c. No change.d. The AD curve is vertical; the price level does not affect equilibrium output.e. The increase in z reduces the natural level of output and shifts the AS curve up. SincetheAD curve is vertical, output does not change, but prices increase. Note that output is above its natural level.f. The AS curve shifts up forever, and prices keep increasing forever. Output does notchange, and remains above its natural level forever.6. a. The natural level of output is Y n. Assuming that output starts at is naturallevel, P0= M0- (1/c)*Y nb. Assuming that P e=P0: Y = 2cM0-cP=2cM0-cP0-cdY+cdY nRecalling that Y n=c(M0-P0): Y= Y n+ (c/(1+c d))*M0c. Investment goes up because output is higher and the interest rate is lower.d. In the medium run, Y = Y ne. In the medium run, investment returns to its previous level, because output and the interestrate return to their previous levels.CHAPTER 81.a.Trb.Fac.Fad.Tre.Faf.Tr2. a. No. In the 1970s, we experienced high inflation and high unemployment. The expectations- augmented Phillips curve is a relationship between inflation and unemployment conditional on the natural rate and inflation expectations. Given inflation expectations,increases in the natural rate (which result from adverse shocks to labor market institutions—increases in z—or from increases in the markup—which encompass oil shocks) lead to an increase in both theunemployment rate and the inflation rate. In addition, increases in inflation expectations imply higher inflation for any level of unemployment and tend to increase the unemployment rate inthe short run (think of an increase in the expected price level, given last period’s price,in the AD-AS framework). In the 1970s, both the natural rate and expected inflation increased, so both unemployment and inflation were relatively high.b. No. The expectations-augmented Phillips curve implies that maintaining a rate ofunemployment below the natural rate requires increasing (not simply high) inflation. This is because inflation expectations continue to adjust to actual inflation.3. a. u n=0.1/2 =5%b. t=0.1-2*.03 = 4% every year beginning with year t.c. e= 0 and =4% forever. Inflation expectations will be forever wrong. This isunlikely.t td. ⎝ might increase because pe ople’s inflation expectations adapt to persistently positiveinflation. The increase in ⎝ has no effect on u n.e. 5= 4+.1-.06=4%+4%=8%For t>5, repeated substitution implies, t= 5+(t-5)*4%.So, 10=28%; 15=48%.f. Inflation expectations will again be forever wrong. This is unlikely.4. a. t= t-1+ 0.1 - 2u t= t-1+ 2%t=2%; t+1=4%; t+2=6%; t+3=8%.b. t=0.5 t+ 0.5 t-1+ 0.1 - 2u tor, t= t-1+ 4%4. c. t=4%; t+1=8%; t+2=12%; t+3=16%d. As indexation increases, low unemployment leads to a larger increase in inflation overtime.5. a. A higher cost of production means a higher markup.b. u n=(0.08+0.1⎧)/2; Thus, the natural rate of unemployment increases from 5% to 6% as⎧increases from 20% to 40%.6. a. Yes. The average rate of unemployment is down. In addition, the unemploymentrate is at a historical low and inflation has not risen.b. The natural rate of unemployment has probably decreased.7. An equation that seems to fit well is: t- t-1=6-u t, which implies a natural rate of approximately 6%.8. The relationships imply a lower natural rate in the more recent period. CHAPTER 91. F TT F FT TT2. a. The unemployment rate will increase by 1% per year when g=0.5%. Unemploymentwill increase unless the growth rate exceeds the sum of productivity growth and labor force growth.b. We need growth of 4.25% per year for each of the next four years.c. Okun’s law is likely to beco me: u t-u t-1=-0.4*(g yt-5%)3. a. u n= 5%b. g yt= 3%; g mt=g yt+ t= 11%c. u g yt g mtt-1:8%5%3%11%t:4%9%-7%-3%t+1:4%5%13%17%t+2:4%5%3%7%4. a. t- t-1= -(u t-.05)u t- u t-1= -.4*(g mt- t-.03)b. t=6.3%; u t=8.7%t+1=1%; u t+1=10.3%c. u=5%; g y=3%; =-3%;5. a. See text for full answer. Gradualism reduces need for large policy swings, with effectsthat are difficult to predict, but immediate reduction may be more credible and encourage rapid, favorable changes in inflation expectations. On the other hand, the staggering ofwagedecisions suggests that, if the policy is credible, a gradual disinflation is the optionconsistent with no change in the unemployment rate.b. Not clear, probably fast disinflation, depending on the features inc.5. c. Some important features: the degree of indexation, the nature of the wage-settingprocess, and the initial rate of inflation.*6. a. u n=K/2; sacrifice ratio=.5 b. t=10%; t+1=8%; t+2=6%; t+3=4%; t+4=2%c. 5 years; sacrifice ratio=(5 point years of excess unemployment)/(10 percentage pointreduction in inflation)=.5d. t=7.5%; t+1=4.125%; t+2=1.594%; 3 years of higher unemployment for a reduction of10%: sacrifice ratio=0.3 e. t+1f. Take measures to enhance credibility.7. a. Inflation will start increasing.b.It should let unemployment increase to its new, higher, natural rate.Chapter 101. TTTFFFTU2. a. Example: France: (1.042)48*5.150=$37.1 k.Germany: $43.4 k; Japan: $76.5 k; UK: $22.5 k; U.S.:$31.7k b. 2.4c. yes.3. a. $5,000b. 2,500 pesos c. $500d. $1,000e. Mexican standard of living relative to the U.S.—exchange rate method:1/10; PPP method: 1/54. a. Y=63b. Y doubles. c. Yes.d. Y/N=(K/N)1/2e. K/N=4 implies Y/N=2. K/N=8 implies Y/N=2.83. Output less than doubles.f. No.g. No. In part f, we are looking at what happens to output when we increasecapital only, not capital and labor in equal proportion. There are decreasing returns tocapital.h. Yes.5. The United States was making the most important technical advances. However, theother countries were able to make up much of their technological gap by importing thetechnologies developed in the United States, and hence, have higher technological progress.6.Convergence for the France, Belgium, and Italy; no convergence for the second set ofcountriesChapter 111. a. Uncertain. True if saving includes public and private saving. False if saving onlyincludes private saving.b. False.c.Uncert UTFFd2. a. No. (1) The Japanese rate of growth is not so high anymore. (2) If the Japanesesaving rate has always been high, then this cannot explain the difference between the rate of growth inJapan and the US in the last 40 or 50 years. (3) If the Japanese saving rate has been higher thanit used to be, then this can explain some of the high Japanese growth. The contribution of high saving to growth in Japan should, however, come to an end.3. After a decade: higher growth rate. After five decades: growth rate back to normal, higher level of output per worker.4. a. Higher saving. Higher output per workerb. Same output per worker. Higher output per capita.5.*YYYd. Y/N = (K/N)1/3e. In steady state, sf(K/N) = ™K/N, which, given the production function in part d,implies: K/N=(s/™)3/2f. Y/N =(s/™)1/2g. Y/N = 2h. Y/N = 21/26.* a. 1b. 1c. K/N=.35; Y/N=.71d. Using equation (11.3), the evolution of K/N is: 0.9, 0.82, 0.757. a. K/N=(s/(2™))2; Y/N=s/(4™) b. C/N=s(1-s)/(4™)c-e. Y/N increases with s; C/N increases until s=.5, then decreases. CHAPTER 121.TFTFTFTUF2. a. Lower growth in poorer countries. Higher growth in rich countries.b. Increase in R&D and in output growth.c. A decrease in the fertility of applied research; a (small) decrease in growth.d. A decrease in the appropriability of drug research. A drop in the development of newdrugs. Lower technological progress and lower growth.3. See discussion in section 12.2.4. Examples will vary. Weakening patent protection would accelerate diffusion, but mightalso discourage R&D.5. a. Year 1: 3000; Year 2: 3960b. Real GDP: 3300; output growth: 10%c. 20%d. Real GDP/Worker=30 in both years; productivity growth is zero.e. RealGDP:3990;outputgrowth:33%.f. -0.8%g. Proper measurement implies real gdp/worker=36.3 in year 2. With improper measurement, productivity growth would be 21 percentage points lower and inflation 21% points higher.6. a. Both lead to an initial decrease in growthb. Only the first leads to a permanent decrease in growth7. a. (K/(AN))*=(s/(™+g A+g N))2=1; (Y/(AN))*=(1)1/2; g Y/(AN)=0; g Y/N=4%; g Y=6%b. (K/(AN))=(4/5)2; (Y/(AN))*=(4/5); g Y/(AN)=0; g Y/N=8%; g Y=10%c. (K/(AN))=(4/5)2; (Y/(AN))*=(4/5); g Y/(AN)=0; g Y/N=4%; g Y=10%People are better off in case a. Given any set of initial values, the level of technology is the same in cases a and c, but the level of capital per effective worker is higher atevery point in time in case a. Thus, since Y/N=A*(Y/(AN))=A*(K/(AN))1/2, output per worker is always higher in case a.8. There is a slowdown in growth and the rate of technological progress in the modernperiod. Japan’s growth rate of technological progress is higher because it is catching upto the U.S. level of technology. Not all of the difference in growth rates of output per worker is attributable to the difference in rates of technological progress. A big part is attributable to the difference in rates of growth of capital per worker.9.* a. ProbablyaffectsA.Thinkofclimate.b.Affects H.c. Affects A. Strong protection tends to encourage more R&D but also to limit diffusion of technology.d. May affect A through diffusion.e. May affect K, H, and A. Lower tax rates increase the after-tax return on investment,and thus tend to lead to more accumulation of K and H and more R&D spending.f. If we interpret K as private capital, than infrastructure affects A—e.g., bettertransportation networks may make the economy more productive by reducing congestion time.g. Assuming no technological progress, lower population growth implies highersteady-state level of output per worker. Lower population growth leads to higher capital per worker. Ifthere is technological progress, there is no steady-state level of output per worker. In this case, however, lower population growth implies that output per worker will be higher at every point in time, for any given path of technology. See the answer to problem 7c.Chapter 131.FFTTTTTTF2. a. u=1-(1/(1+⎧))(A/A e)b. u=1-(1/(1+⎧))=4.8%c. No. Since wages adjust to expected productivity, an increase in productivityeventuallyleads to equiproportional increases in the real wage implied by wage setting and price setting, at the original natural rate of unemployment. So equilibrium can bemaintained without any change in the natural rate of unemployment.3.* a. P=P e(1+⎧)(A e/A)(Y/L)(1/A)b. AS shifts down. Given A e/A=1, an increase in A implies a fall in P, given Y. Thisoccurs because for a given level of Y, unemployment is higher, so wages are lower and so, in turn, is the price level.c. There is now an additional effect, a fall in A e/A. In effect, workers do not receive asmuchof an increase in wages as warranted by the increase in productivity. Compared to part b, nominal wages are lower, leading to a lower value of P given Y.4. Discussion question.5. a. Reduce the gap, if this leads to an increase in the relative supply of skilled workers.b. Reduce the gap, since it leads to a decrease in the relative supply of unskilled workers.c. Reduce the gap, since it leads to an increase in the relative supply of skilled workers.d. Increase the gap, if U.S. firms hire unskilled workers in Central America, since itreduces the relative demand for U.S. unskilled workers.6. a. Textiles production is moving to low wage countries.b. Possibly demographic changes, increased availability of child care outside the home,decline in labor supply for these positions.c. Technological progress.7. Discussion question.CHAPTER 14。
布兰查德《宏观经济学》章节课后习题详解(菲利普斯曲线、自然失业率和通货膨胀)【圣才出品】
第8章菲利普斯曲线、自然失业率和通货膨胀一、概念题1．菲利普斯曲线（Phillips curve）答：英国经济学家菲利普斯根据1861～1957年英国的失业率和货币工资变动率的经验统计资料，得出货币工资增长率与失业率之间存在替换关系，故称之为菲利普斯曲线。
后来的学者用物价上涨率（即通货膨胀率）代替货币工资上涨率，以表示物价上涨率与失业率之间也有对应关系：物价上涨率增加时，失业率下降；物价上涨率下降时，失业率上升。
这就是一般所说的经过改造后的菲利普斯曲线。
菲利普斯曲线如图8-1所示。
图8-1 菲利普斯曲线菲利普斯曲线提供的失业率与通货膨胀率之间的关系为实施政府干预、进行总需求管理提供了一份可供选择的菜单。
它意味着当通货膨胀率过高时，可通过紧缩性的经济政策使失业率提高，以换取低通货膨胀率；当失业率过高时，采取扩张性的经济政策使通货膨胀率提高，以获得较低的失业率。
对于菲利普斯曲线具体的形状，不同学派对此有不同的看法。
普遍接受的观点是：在短期内，菲利普斯曲线向右下方倾斜，而长期菲利普斯曲线是一条垂直线，表明在长期失业率与通货膨胀率之间不存在替换关系。
2．工资－价格螺旋（wage-price spiral）答：工资—价格螺旋又称为“工资—物价螺旋式上升”，是一种关于工资与物价相互促进而引起持续通货膨胀的理论。
给定预期价格，工人认为就是去年的价格，更低的失业导致更高的名义工资，更高的名义工资导致更高的价格，更高的价格导致更高的通货膨胀。
这一机制被称为工资—价格螺旋。
其作用机制为：（1）低失业引起更高的名义工资。
（2）作为对更高工资的反应，企业提高它们的价格，价格就升高了。
（3）作为对更高价格的反应，工人要求更高的名义工资。
（4）更高的名义工资致使企业进一步提高价格，最终价格进一步提升。
（5）作为对价格进一步提升的反应，在他们再次制定工资的时候，工人进一步要求更高的名义工资。
价格和工资之间的这种竞赛，导致持续的工资和价格膨胀。
布兰查德《宏观经济学》课后习题详解-核心部分中期【圣才出品】
Ⅱ中期第6章劳动力市场一、概念题1．非社会公共机构的平民人口（non institutional civilian population）答：非社会公共机构的平民人口是指总人口中除去低于工作年龄的人口（16岁以下）、军队服役和监狱服刑的人口外所剩余的人口。
2．劳动力，非劳动力（labor force ，out of the labor force）答：(1)劳动力指一国或地区法定劳动年龄以上的，或者在工作，或者在积极寻找工作，或者因为暂时失业而等待重新得到工作的所有人。
劳动力包括失业者和就业者。
一国劳动力的规模取决于人口总量、人口结构、劳动力参工率以及移民等因素。
劳动力是既包括就业者又包括失业者的工人总量，用公式可以表示为：劳动力＝就业者人数＋失业者人数。
(2)非劳动力指一国人口中不工作也不找工作的那部分人。
需要注意的是，失业者属于劳动力而不是非劳动力，同时非劳动力是一个动态的概念，一部分失业者可能因为较长时期的失业丧失了劳动能力而成为非劳动力。
成年人口的增加将减少非劳动力的数量，退休人口增加将增加非劳动力的数量。
3．参工率（participation rate）答：劳动力参工率是指劳动力人数与属于劳动年龄人口总数的比率。
这一统计指标反映了劳动年龄人口中选择参与劳动市场的人的比率。
劳动力参工率用公式表示为：100%=⨯劳动力人数劳动力参工率劳动年龄人口总数劳动力参工率主要取决于经济发展水平和教育的发达程度。
影响这一指标的重要因素是劳动资源中从事家务劳动的人数和正在接受教育的学生人数。
国民经济的发展和科学技术在生产过程中的广泛运用，对劳动者的文化技术水平提出了更高的要求，劳动者接受教育的时间延长，劳动资源中受教育的人所占比重上升。
因此，在经济发达国家，劳动力参工率有稍许下降的趋势。
4．失业率（unemployment rate）答：失业率是指失业人数占劳动力人数的比率。
失业率是劳工统计中用来反映一国或一个地区失业程度的主要指标。
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第17章 预期、产出和政策一、概念题1．总私人支出（aggregate private spending ，or private spending ） 答：总私人支出包括消费和投资两部分，表示为：。
总私人支出是收入的递增函数：收入越高，消费和投资越高；它是税收的递减函数：高税收使得消费下降；它是实际利率的递减函数：高实际利率使得投资下降。
2．动物精神（animal spirits ）答：动物精神又称为“血气冲动”、“本能冲动”、“动物本能”、“创业冲动”，是指用来说明企业家作出投资决策时的心理状态，以及这种心理状态对投资的影响。
凯恩斯认为，企业家是否进行一项投资，并不是十分理性地进行冷静周密的计算后作出决定，而是一时“动物本能”的结果。
因此，投资是一种动物本能影响的活动。
私人投资不仅取决于企业家对未来投资收益的估算，而且还受到企业家一时一地的心理状态和情绪的影响。
以后，英国经济学家J.罗宾逊在分析投资问题时，也运用了动物本能这一概念。
3．适应性预期（adaptive expectations ）答：适应性预期是一种预期形成理论，指对某一经济变量，不仅依据其现期的实际值，而且依据其现期实际值与在上一期对其做出的本期的估计值之间的误差，进行相应调整，得()()(),,,A Y T r C Y T I Y r ≡-+Y T r出对其未来估计值的预期。
适应性预期产生于20世纪50年代，是由菲利普·卡甘在一篇讨论恶性通货膨胀的文章中提出来的，很快在宏观经济学中得到广泛的应用。
适应性预期假定经济人根据以前的预期误差来修正以后的预期。
适应性预期模型的要点是预期变量依赖于该变量的历史信息。
某个时期的适应性预期价格等于上一时期预期的价格加上常数与上期价格误差（上个时期实际价格与预期价格之差）之和。
即预期价格是过去所有实际价格的加权平均数，权数是常数的函数。
适应性预期在物价较为稳定的时期能较好地反映经济现实。
西方国家的经济在20世纪五六十年代正好经历了低位而且稳定的通货膨胀，适应性预期在这一时期中较好地模拟了西方国家的现实，因而适应性预期广泛地流行起来。
适应性预期受到新古典宏观经济学派的批判，新古典宏观经济学派认为它缺乏微观经济基础，适应性预期的权数分布是既定的几何级数，没有利用与被测变量相关的其他变量，对经济预期方程的确定基本上是随意的，没有合理的经济解释。
因此，新古典宏观经济学派的理性预期逐渐取代了适应性预期。
4．理性预期（rational expectations ）答：理性预期是指人们在搜集尽可能多的经济信息的基础上，依据一定的经济理论或经济数学模型对经济变量的未来变化作出估计。
理性预期，又称“合理预期”，是现代经济学中的预期概念之一，指符合实际将发生的事实的预期。
由约翰·穆思在其《合理预期和价格变动理论》（1961年）一文中首先提出。
它的含义有三个：①作出经济决策的经济主体是有理性的；②所作决策为正确决策，经济主体会在作出预期时力图获得一切有关的信息；③经济主体在预期时不会犯系统错误，即使犯错误，他也会及时有效地进行修正，使得在长期而言保持正确。
它是新古典宏观经济理论的重要假设（其余三个为个体利益最大、市场出清P C C和自然率），是新古典宏观经济理论攻击凯恩斯主义的重要武器。
理性预期已经成为西方宏观经济学各派广泛使用的概念。
不仅是新古典宏观经济学的基本概念，也为其所对立的学派，如新凯恩斯主义学派所采用。
5．负担后移（backloading ）答：负担后移是对面向未来的赤字削减的称谓，即现在削减得少一些，将来削减得多一些，更能够带来产出的提高。
如当前政府支出（）的下降越小，对当前支出的负作用就越小。
还有，预期未来政府支出（）降低越多，对预期未来产出和利率的影响就越大，因而对当前的产出有更大的正面影响，这就意味着负担后移。
负担后移还提出了其他的一些问题，如果政府宣布有必要进行艰难的削减支出，但是随后却将必要的措施延迟到未来的某个时候，其可信度就会下降。
6．可信性（credibility ）答：在宏观经济学中，可信性是指公众相信政府将履行其宣布的政策的程度。
政府制定宏观经济政策是与公众之间的一种博弈，因而同样存在动态博弈中的可信性问题，即先行动的博弈方（公众）是否相信后行动的博弈方（政府）会采取对自己有利或不利的行动。
公众可能不会立即完全相信政府的公告，政策制定者可能缺乏充分的可信性。
当政策制定者的公告为经济当事人所信任时，政策制定者才有信誉。
政策制定者通常必须通过长时期内始终如一的行动，来赢得信誉，为的是让公众学会相信他们的言行。
获得可信性的代价可能很大。
例如，如果美联储宣布它将保持低通货膨胀而不被公众相信时，预期的通货膨胀率会高于实际的通货膨胀率（如菲利普斯曲线所示），衰退会随之而来。
只有经过一段时间，当新的政策被公众所理解时，才会赢得信誉。
G e G二、计算与分析题 1．用本章学到的知识，判断下面的描述是正确、错误，还是不确定，并解释。
a ．预期未来1年期实际利率的变化比当前1年期实际利率的变化对支出有更大的影响。
b ．物品市场模型中，预期的引入意味着曲线仍然是向下倾斜的，但是更加平坦。
c ．当前货币需求依赖于当前和预期未来名义利率。
d ．理性预期假设消费者考虑了未来财政政策对产出的影响。
e ．预期未来的货币政策影响未来的经济活动，但是对当前的经济活动没有影响。
f ．通过对预期施加影响，财政紧缩政策实际上可以带来经济的扩张。
g ．爱尔兰在1982年和1987年赤字削减计划的例子，有力地反击了赤字削减能导致产出扩展的假说。
答：a ．错误。
当前1年期实际利率的变化和预期未来1年期实际利率的变化对支出影响都不大，只有预期未来利率的长期变化对支出才会产生更大的影响。
b ．错误。
引入预期，曲线仍然是向下倾斜的，但是更加陡峭了，当前利率一个很大的变化只能对均衡产出产生一个很小的影响。
其原因在于未来的预期利率和预期产出不变，从而当前利率变化对支出的影响较小，乘数也较小。
c ．错误。
当前实际货币需求依赖于当前的名义利率以及当前收入，不受未来名义利率变动的影响。
因为如果短期利率在将来提高，从而持有货币的机会成本上升，可到那时而不是现在减少平衡货币量。
d ．正确或不确定。
理性预期假设消费者在建立预期的时候，先估计未来的政策走向，然后找出这些走向对未来经济活动的意义。
消费者依赖别人的预测，但前提是必须有人去做这样的预测。
IS ISe ．错误。
未来的货币政策影响人们的预期，对未来的经济活动和当前的经济活动都有影响。
f ．正确。
比如财政赤字下降使人们预期未来产出提高，预期未来利率下降，都会使曲线右移，产出提高。
g ．错误。
1982年的计划着重于提高税收，并没有改变人们眼中的政府在经济中的作用，人们对于未来的预期已经非常悲观。
赤字削减造成GDP 的低增长以及持续高涨的赤字。
1987年的计划把重点放在削减支出和税制改革上，对预期产生了更多的积极影响，从而导致大规模的赤字削减伴随着强劲的经济增长，并不像基本的模型中所预测的那样带来衰退。
这都说明是赤字削减对于产出的影响可能并不是一致的。
因此以上两例无法有力反驳赤字削减能导致产出扩展的假说。
2．在20世纪90年代末，许多观察者宣布美国已经进入一个新的经济，而且这被在这段时间观察到的非常高的股票值所证实。
a ．讨论这是如何影响消费支出的。
b ．随后股市下跌。
讨论这可能如何影响消费。
答：a ．非常高的股票值直接增加了个人收入，从而使得消费支出增加。
并且，进入新经济的论断以及被证实股票值会提高消费者未来收入的预期，也会提高当前消费支出。
b ．随后的股市下跌，使得人们收入减少，对未来预期收入也将降低，从而消费者会减少当前消费。
3．对于下面的每一种情况，试确定曲线、曲线是否移动，还是都移动，或者都不动。
在每一种情况下，假定预期当前和未来通货膨胀等于零，并且没有其他的外生变量改IS IS LM IS LM变。
a ．预期未来实际利率的下降。
b ．当前货币供给的提高。
c ．预期未来税收的提高。
d ．预期未来收入的下降。
答：a ．预期未来实际利率下降，给定当前名义利率上水平上投资增加，曲线右移。
b ．当前货币供给提高，给定收入水平上名义利率降低，曲线向右移动。
c ．在关系中，给定固定资本，预期未来税收的提高使曲线左移。
然而，未来税收的提高导致低实际利率，带来中期投资的增加和长期产出的增加。
预期实际利率和产出的变化导致曲线右移。
所以对曲线的综合作用结果是不确定的。
需要注意的是，教材中的例子是一次付清的税。
现实中，边际税——非一次性总付税收的提高可能产生扭曲效应，对经济产生负面影响，会使产出下降或经济增长率下降。
d ．预期未来收入下降，既定利率水平上总支出减少，曲线左移。
4．“理性预期假设是不现实的，因为这本质上等于假定每一个消费者都有完备的经济知识。
”请讨论这种说法。
答：理性预期的假设可能是不现实的，但理性预期假设并不意味着每一个消费者都有完备的经济知识。
消费者会使用一些最有帮助和最有效的信息来预测未来并作出决定，比如经济模型，数据和技术方法。
此外，消费者不必自己用经济模型做出预测的结果，他们可以依赖报纸或电视上的专家预测。
理性预期去除掉一部分消费者的系统性错误，即使理性预期在字面上看上去不正确，但它作为政策分析的基准还是有道理的。
IS LM IS LM IS IS IS IS。