外文翻译---资本流入亚洲：货币政策的作用

中文2950字本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目：Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy出处：International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street N.W., Washington, DC 20431, U.S.A.作者：TIMOTHY JAMES BOND原文：Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary PolicyAbstract.Monetary policy played an important role in the Asian experience with capital inflows.Central banks used monetary policy to contain the threat of overheating, but the resulting increases in interest rates attracted additional inflows. Empirical measurement of these links shows that tight monetary policy was an important source of inflows to Indonesia and Thailand in recent years, and that the independence of monetary policy decreased during the inflow period.Key words: Capital inflows, monetary policy.I. IntroductionThe magnitude of private capital inflows to developing countries increased sharply in recent years. Due to the macroeconomic pressures that these inflows generate,economists have devoted substantial attention to the issue of designing an appropriate policy response. The Asian experience with capital inflows offers some important lessons in this area. This paper reviews the capital inflow episode in Asia, and focuses in more detail on the experience of two countries: Indonesia and Thailand. Monetary policy played a key role in these countries, both as a response to capital inflows, when sterilization was used to limit the expansion of monetary aggregates, and as a cause, when increases in interest rates to counter overheating attracted additional inflows. For this reason, and because the importance of monetary policy has been underemphasized in the literature,1 the paper analyzes the relationship between monetary policy and capital flows in some detail. It concludes that the Asianexperience with capital inflows illustrates the difficulty of maintaining monetary independence with an exchange rate target and an open capital account. Under these conditions, monetary policy will decline in usefulness as capital mobility rises, and macroeconomic management will become more difficult.Consequently, countries should develop other means of responding to capital flows, such as fiscal policy or increased exchange rate flexibility.The Asian experience with capital inflows can provide valuable lessons to policymakers in other countries, for several reasons. First, capital inflows began earlier in Asia, and have endured longer. In Thailand, for example, the capital inflow episode has lasted nearly a decade. Inflows to Asia showed little tendency to slow after the 1994 crisis in Mexico, in contrast to the pattern of capital flows to many Latin American countries. This experience offers valuable evidence to countries in which capital inflows have only recently begun. Second, inflows to Asian countries have been strong – Thailand has experienced average inflows of nearly 10 percent of GDP per year since 1988. The causes and effects of inflows of this magnitude are often more readily apparent. Third, faced with strong capital inflows, the countries considered here fashioned strong policy responses. They adopted conventional policies, such as tightening the fiscal stance, as well as unconventional policies, such as innovative means of monetary management, measures to limit credit growth, and measures to raise the cost of short-term capital movements. Fourth, and possibly as a result of the strong policy response, Asian countries avoided some of the concerns associated with large capital inflows. In particular, the inflows had a limited impact on inflation and the real exchange rate; and most importantly, the inflows financed a surge in investment rather than consumption.The effect of capital inflows was not completely benign, however, as many of these countries now face higher levels of external debt, as well as concerns over the intermediation of external borrowing through the domestic financial system.The Asian experience demonstrates an additional, extremely important point: that in countries with pegged exchange rates, an increase in capital flows complicates monetary management. Although over a longer horizon, policymakers were concerned with the potential effects of inflows on final targets such as economicactivity and inflation, on a day-to-day level, they attempted to manage the economy by controlling intermediate targets such as interest rates or monetary aggregates. Many countries experienced downward pressures on interest rates and upward pressures on monetary aggregates as the pace of capital inflows increased, and policymakers often felt that their ability to control these key variables had declined.In this way, capital flows complicated the task of central banking.This fact illustrates an important link between monetary policy and capital flows under pegged exchange rates, familiar from standard texts on open economy macroeconomics. Capital flows constrain monetary policy because monetary policy draws capital flows. In particular, an attempt either to contract monetary policy, or to sterilize a reserve inflow, will raise interest rates and attract more capital inflows.2 The paper relies on a simple model to illustrate this relationship.The model, developed over 20 years ago by Kouri and Porter (1974), provides useful insights into the causes of capital flows to countries with pegged exchange rate regimes. It can be used to quantify empirically both the constraints that international capital mobility imposes on monetary management, and the proportion of capital inflows due to contractionary monetary policy.The paper uses the cases of Indonesia and Thailand to demonstrate the importance of these links in practice. There are important similarities between these two countries’ experien ces with capital inflows. Each country, after undergoing a period of structural adjustment and economic liberalization in the mid-1980s, received a surge in capital inflows around the turn of the decade. Each country maintained a fairly open capital account and an exchange rate target,3 and thus had a limited number of policy instruments to respond to the surge in inflows. Despite the exchangerate regime, each country tightened monetary policy to limit the effects of capital flows, and periodically sterilized inflows of reserves; these policies were important sources of additional inflows. Finally, each of these countries, concluding that a monetary response alone was insufficient, also relied on other policies to maintain macroeconomic control. In brief, both countries tightened fiscal policy, while Indonesia gradually increased exchange rate flexibility –standard policy prescriptions in response to a rise in capital inflows. The experiences of Indonesia andThailand during the capital inflow episode thus provide examples of the use, effectiveness, and limitations of some of the most important policy instruments.The discussion in this paper is limited to the Asian experience with large capital inflows through the end of 1995, and the usefulness of macroeconomic policy tools in this environment. Consequently, the regional slowdown in 1996, and the financial crisis which erupted in 1997, are not covered here.The paper is organized in the following way. The next section defines some terminology used throughout the paper. Section III discusses the overall Asian experience with capital inflows, and reviews the main results and policy conclusions of the literature on the subject. Section IV reviews a simple model which clarifies the relationship between monetary policy and capital flows. To illustrate the points the model makes, Section V discusses the Indonesian experience with capital inflows, while Section VI discusses the Thai experience. Section VII provides quantitative estimates of the constraints capital mobility imposes on monetary management, and the contribution of monetary policy to capital flows in Indonesia and Thailand. Section VIII summarizes and concludes.II. DefinitionsSome discussion of the terminology used here is in order, given the recent changes in balance of payments accounting methodology.4 As in previous literature on the subject, the term “capital inflow” in this paper refers to a decrease in the net national asset position of the private and public sectors (excluding the central bank) over a certain period of time. Thus, increases in external debt or net sales of equity will be recorded as capital inflows. In practice, capital inflows are measured by the surplus on the financial account in the new presentation of the balance of payments, plus errors and omissions.5 The financial account equals the sum of net flows of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment (in debt and equity securities), and other investment, of which banking flows are an important element. Errors and omissions is a residual category which ensures that the balance of payments sum to zero; it is included in measures of capital flows under the assumption that movementsin this category are more likely to represent unrecorded international asset transactions, rather than mismeasurement of official reserve transactions or items on the current account.Using this definition, the familiar balance of payments accounting identity implies that capital inflows equal the current account deficit plus the increase in official international reserves.6 Higher capital inflows correspond to higher current account deficits, increases in reserves, or both. The exchange rate regime determines the extent to which capital inflows will increase reserves. Under a purely floating exchange rate, in which the central bank does not intervene in the foreign exchange market, a capital inflow will not be associated with an increase in reserves.In contrast, under pegged exchange rates, the central bank will intervene to keep the currency from appreciating, and capital inflows will generally be associated with increases in reserves. This relationship will be important in the analysis below.III. An Overview of the Asian ExperienceThe features and macroeconomic effects of capital inflows to Asia have been discussed in the literature in some detail;7 consequently, this section presents only a brief overview of these issues as a backdrop for the analysis to follow. Figure 1 shows the average balance on the financial account (plus errors and omissions) for five Asian countries. These countries –Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand –account for about two-thirds of total capital flows to developing Asia during 1990–95, and will be the focus of this section.8 As a comparison,the figure also graphs average capital flows to four Latin American countries:Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico.译文：资本流入亚洲：货币政策的作用摘要：伴随着资本流入的亚洲经验中货币政策扮演了一个重要的角色。