Economic dynamics with financial fragility and mean-field interaction a model
非线性动力学入门-西安交通大学教师个人主页
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另一方面梁的轴向应变的表达式也会因变形大小的不同而采用不同的表达式比如小变形时应变而当考虑大变形时可能采用的应变表达式就是进而得到的梁的振动方程将会是一个含有高度非线性项的偏微分方程组
非线性动力学入门
张新华
西安交通大学 工程力学系 2011 年 07 月
前 言
─1687 年，牛顿(Isaac Newton, 1643 ～ 1727)发表了《自然哲学之数学原 理》(Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy)，标志着经典力学(亦即牛 顿力学)的正式诞生。牛顿力学主要研究自由质点系的宏观运动规律。 ─1788 年，拉格朗日(Joseph Louis Lagrange, 1736 ～ 1813)发表了分析力 学教程(Analytical Mechanics)，标志着拉格朗日力学的诞生。Lagrange 力学属 于分析力学的主要内容之一，在位形空间中研究带有约束的质点系动力学。 ─1833 年，哈密尔顿(William Rowen Hamilton, 1805 ～ 1865)对 Lagrange 力学进行了改造，引进了相空间(2n 维空间)，对系统内在的对称性(辛对称， Symplectic)进行了刻画。狭义上的哈密尔顿力学只适用于保守系统，而广义 的哈密尔顿力学在适用于非保守系统。哈密尔顿力学也属于分析力学的主要 组成部分。在此后发展起来的量子力学中 Hamilton 力学发挥着巨大的作用。 目前在天体力学、计算 Hamilton 力学，量子力学，甚至弹性力学(即所谓的 辛弹性力学)中哈密尔顿力学依然发挥着重要作用。 ─1927 年，Birkhoff(George David Birkhoff, 1844 ～ 1944)发表了“动力系 统”(Dynamical Systems)，标志着 Birkhoff 动力学的正式问世。Birkhoff 动力 学建立了研究非完整力学的框架。 ─1892 ～ 1899， 彭加莱(Henri Poincaré, 1854 ～ 1912)发表了三卷本的“天 体力学中的新方法”(New Methods of Celestial Mechanics)，系统性地提出了 研究动力学系统的定性方法，即几何方法。经典力学的目标之一就是设法求 得系统的解析解，而 Poincaré意识到对于大多数非线性系统而言，求其解析 解是不可能的，而必须发展新的研究方法。他超越了他的时代，极富远见地 预测到了非线性系统混沌现象(系统的解对初始条件具有极端敏感依赖性)的 存在。更为重要的是，Poincaré开创了研究非线性动力系统的几何方法，当之 无愧地被誉为非线性科学之父，其影响是划时代的。 ─1892 年，李亚普诺夫(Aleksandr Mikhailovich Lyapunov, 1857 ～ 1918)在 他的博士论文“运动稳定性的一般问题”(General problem of the stability of motion )中，系统地探讨了非线性动力学系统的稳定性问题。他提出了两种研 究稳定性的方法：李亚普诺夫第一方法(间接方法)和李亚普诺夫第二方法(直 接方法)。他从代数角度出发，对动力学系统的研究开创了一个崭新的领域。 彭加莱与李亚普诺夫，前者从几何角度，后者从代数角度，开拓了非线 性科学的研究疆域和研究手段。 ─1963 年，Lorenz(Edward Norton Lorenz, 1917 ～ 2008)发表了“确定性 非周期流”(Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow)的论文，认为大气系统的性态对 初值极为敏感，从而导致准确的长期天气预报是不可能的。该文标志着人类 首次借助于计算机发现了混沌(Chaos)现象的存在。 ─1757 年，欧拉(Leonhard Euler, 1707 ～ 1783)发表了压杆稳定性的论 文，首次探讨了力学系统的分岔现象。作为分岔理论重要分支的突变理 论(Catastrophe Theory)则主要由法国数学家托姆(René Thom, 1923 ～ 2002)于 上个世纪 60 年代创立，由齐曼(Christopher Zeeman，1925 ～)在 70 年代大力 推广普及。 ─1834 年，英国的罗素(John Scott Russell, 1808 ～ 1882)骑着马在 Union 运河上散步时，发现了现在称之为孤立波(又称作孤波，Solitary wave)的 i
经济周期理论的弗里希模型之谜
5
作为物理学家，我马上意识到弗里希构想的实质是单热源的热力学第二类 永动机，它企图将环境波动的随机热能转化为动能做机械功，以克服摩擦力来 维持振荡。弗里希构想违反了热力学第二定律。有高中物理知识的学生都知道 这是不可能实现的。 弗里希在讨论阻尼振子的传播问题和噪声影响的脉冲问题之后宣称： “我们关注平均周期和平均振幅是合理的。换言之，这能给出实际统计观 察中得到的曲线类型。我这里暂不给出任何严格的证明，它将和大量的数据模 拟一起，即将发表在前面提到的《计量经济学》期刊最新的论文中。” 我们查阅了《计量经济学》期刊，在“近期论文预告”的栏目中三次出现 弗里希论文的标题： 拉格纳弗里希：“从线性算子和随机冲击的视角研究变化谐波”。 弗里希的论文预告刊登在《计量经济学》期刊的第一卷，包括第2期（1933 年4月）第234页、第3期（1933年7月）第336页、还有第4期（1933年10月）。 奇怪的是，从第二卷第1期开始（1934年1月），这一预告消失得无影无踪。弗 里希承诺的论文从来没有出现过。这一怪事出现的原因不难理解：因为弗里希 本人是这一新创的计量经济学学会旗舰期刊的主编。只有他能决定发表或撤下 已经公告的论文。 36年之后，弗里希因为在经济周期理论方面的工作而获得第一届诺贝尔经 济学奖。1969年10月，埃里克伦德伯格教授代表瑞典皇家科学院做了如下陈述 （斜体字由笔者添加）（Lundberg 1969）： “……弗里希教授在（20世纪）30年代早期的开创性工作涉及周期理论的 动态模型。他给出货币约束下投资和消费支出的微分方程，会产生波长为四年 和八年的阻尼振荡。如果让系统经受随机冲击，他证明这些不均匀的波动得以
二 有关弗里希噪声驱动经济周期模型的历史文献 从20世纪30年代开始，弗里希经济周期模型一直主导宏观经济学的经济周 期理论。1933年的一篇非正式会议报告中，弗里希提出，可以用阻尼振子来描 述市场经济的自身稳定性，而持续经济周期的存在可以由外来的持续冲击维持 （Frisch 1933），这就是他的噪声驱动周期模型的核心思想。他说（标出重点 的斜体字由笔者所加）：
有关金融危机中羊群效应的外文文献综述
有关金融危机中羊群效应的外文文献综述Adam Szyszka在《Behavioral Anatomy of the Financial Crisis》一文中首先交代了2008年金融危机发生的宏观经济背景，其次剖析了人的行为是如何深刻加剧了金融危机。
其中一个重要的行为就是羊群效应。
文中写道：在楼价反弹伴随着股价和大宗商品价格迅速增长的时候，很明显是由于市场参与者的从众行为导致的投机泡沫，羊群行为可能同时发生于理性和非理性投资者中（(Bikhchandani & Sharma,2000;Devenow & Welch, 1996; Hirshleifer & Teoh, 2003)。
对羊群效应的分析构成了行为金融学，因为投资者整体出错才会影响资产价格，单一投资者的投资行为是不会影响市场价格的，如果投资者没有集体行动，并且未在在同一时间犯类似的错误心理，他们的行为会在很大程度上彼此抵消，市场将保持高效率。
在牛市期间，非理性的投资者做出购买决策并不是基于该资产的基本面，而是基于观察别人在该资产早前价格上涨中的行为，从而模仿其进行投资决策。
他们希望资产进一步增值，却忽略了一个事实，即此时的资产价格已经相当的昂贵。
他们的思维动机和行为方式可以描述如下：由于人们的投资，资产价格上涨。
因为别人都买，因此价格会越来越高，利润也就由此产生。
这是典型的跟着增长趋势下赌注，这种机制在文献中被称作反馈交易。
有相当多同样思维的投资者在践行着反馈机制，由于越来越多的新投资者加入，从而导致大量的需求并推高价格的上涨，媒体的宣扬和专家的看涨言论也助长了更多地投资者加入。
Cutler, Poterba, & Summers (1990) and DeLong et al. (1990)描述了非理性投资者的反馈交易模型，此外，DeLong et al. (1990)认为，理性的投资者可以预期反馈交易中存在非理性投资者并且能够故意的破坏价格，换句话说，通过预测非理性投资者的行为，理性的投资者可以提前决定购买一些资产，当非理性的投资者的羊群行为导致资产价值越来越发散时，理性投资者也有足够的时间出售资产获利。
基于状态空间的财务危机动态预警模型在中国的实证研究
据 统 计 为 基础 ， 根 据 上 市公 司绩 效 的动 态特 点 ， 提 取 公 司状 态 由好 向坏 转 变 ， 危 机 由轻 至 重 的 两 个 阈值 分 割 点 。 研 究从 Ｃ Ｃ Ｅ Ｒ数 据 库 选 取 ２ ６ ４家 上 市 公 司 ， ３ ０个 财 务 指 标 ， 时 间跨 度 为 １ ９ ９ ４— ２ ０ ０ ８年 、 合计 ２ ７ ２ ４组 年 度 观 测 数
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Ａｎ Ｅｍ ｐｉ ｒ ｉ ｃ ａ ｌ Ｓ ｔ ｕｄ ｙ ｉ ｎ Ｃｈ ｉ ｎ ａ
Ｓ ＵＮ Ｘｉ ａ ｏ － ｌ ｉ ｎ ， （ １ ．Ｓ ｃ ｈ ｏ ｏ ｌ ｏ ｆ Ｔ ｒ ａ ｎ ｓ ｐ ｏ ｒ ｔ ａ ｔ ｉ ｏ ｎ ａ ｎ ｄ Ｃ ｏ ｍ ｍ ｕ ｎ ｉ ｃ ａ ｔ ｉ ｏ ｎ ， Ｓ ｈ ａ ｎ ｇ ｈ ａ ｉ Ｍａ ｒ ｉ ｔ ｉ ｍｅ Ｕ ｎ ｉ ｖ ｅ ｒ ｓ ｉ ｔ ｙ ， Ｓ ｈ ａ ｎ ｇ ｈ ａ ｉ ２ ０ ０ １ ５ ３ ， Ｃ ｈ ｉ ｎ ａ ； ２ ． Ａ ｎ ｔ ａ ｉ Ｃ ｏ ｌ ｌ ｅ ｇ ｅ ｏ ｆＥ ｃ ｏ ｎ ｏ ｍｉ ｃ ｓ ａ ｎ ｄ Ｍａ ｎ ａ ｇ ｅ ｍ ｅ ｎ ｔ ， Ｓ ｈ ａ ｎ ｇ ｈ ａ ｉ Ｊ ｉ ａ ｏ Ｔ ｏ ｎ ｇ Ｕ ｎ ｉ ｖ ｅ ｒ ｓ ｉ ｔ ｙ ， Ｓ ｈ ａ ｎ ｇ ｈ ａ ｉ ２ ０ ０ ０ ５ ２ Ｃ ｈ ｉ ｎ ａ ）
Ａｂ ｓ ｔ ｒ ａ ｃ ｔ ： Ｔ ｈ ｉ ｓ ｐ ａ ｐ ｅ ｒ ｓ ｔ ｕ ｄ ｉ ｅ ｓ ｏ ｎ ｅ ｍｐ ｉ ｒ ｉ ｃ ｌ ａ ａ ｎ ａ ｌ ｙ ｓ ｉ ｓ ｏ ｆ Ｃ ｈ ｉ ｎ ａ ｌ ｉ ｓ ｔ ｅ ｄ ｃ ｏ ｍｐ ａ ｎ ｉ ｅ ｓ ｂ ａ ｓ ｅ ｄ ｏ ｎ ｉ ｆ ｎ ａ ｎ ｃ ｉ ａ ｌ ｄ ｉ ｓ ｔ ｒ ｅ ｓ ｓ ｅ ａ ｒ ｌ ｙ ｗａ ｒ ｎ ｉ ｎ ｇ ｓ ｔ ａ ｔ ｅ ｓ ｐ ａ ｃ ｅ ｄ ｙ ｎ ａ ｍｉ ｃ ｍｏ ｄ ｅ ．Ｋａ ｌ ｍａ ｎ ｉｌ ｆ ｔ ｅ ｒ ｉ ｎ ｇ ｉ ｓ ｕ ｓ ｅ ｄ ｔ ｏ ｃ ａ ｌ ｃ ｕ ｌ ａ ｔ ｅ ｔ ｈ ｅ ｔ ｉ ｍｅ—ｖ ａ ｒ ｙ ｉ ｎ ｇ ｐ ａ ｒ ａ ｍｅ ｔ ｅ ｒ ｓ ．Ａｃ ｃ ｏ ｒ ｄ ｉ ｎ ｇ ｔ ｏ ｔ ｈ ｅ ｄ ｙ ｎ ａ ｍｉ ｃ ｐ ｒ ｏ ｃ ｅ ｓ ｓ ｏ ｆ ｃ ｏ ｍｐ ａ ｎ ｉ ｅ ｓ ｐ ｅ ｆ ｒ ｏ ｒ ｍａ ｎ ｃ ｅ，ｔ ｈ ｅ ｉ ｆ ｎ ａ ｎ ｃ ｉ ａ ｌ ｓ ｔ ａ ｔ ｅ ｓ ｏ ｆ ａ ｃ ｏ ｍｐ ａ ｎ ｙ ａ ｒ ｅ ｄ ｉ ｖ ｉ ｄ ｅ ｄ ｉ ｎ ｔ ｏ ｔ ｈ ｒ ｅ ｅ ｐ ｈ ａ ｓ ｅ ｓ ，ａ ｎ ｄ ａ ｒ ｅ ｉ ｄ ｅ ｎ ｔ ｉ ｉ ｆ ｅ ｄ
中美经济相互依赖关系中的敏感性和脆弱性——基于“金融恐怖平衡”视角的分析
作者： 项卫星[1];王冠楠[1]
作者机构： [1]吉林大学经济学院
出版物刊名： 当代亚太
页码： 90-111页
年卷期： 2012年 第6期
主题词： 经济相互依赖;双边资本循环;金融恐怖平衡;脆弱性
摘要：文章认为,中美之间的经济相互依赖主要表现为非对称的双边资本循环;中国在中美经济相互依赖关系中的敏感性和脆弱性,远远高于美国。
全球金融危机通过中美之间的双边资本循环,加剧了中国对美国货币政策和金融市场的依赖,特别是强化了两国之间的＂金融恐怖平衡＂。
文章运用结构向量自回归模型（SVAR）,通过外部冲击引发的动态响应,对这一分析进行了实证检验。
文章认为,美元本位制和中国自改革开放以来实行的出口导向发展战略,是导致中国在中美经济相互依赖关系中的敏感性和脆弱性远远高于美国的根本原因;目前中国不能主动打破两国之间的＂金融恐怖平衡＂,但是中国必须通过加快经济结构调整和转变经济发展战略以及加快金融转型这两个途径,降低自身在中美经济相互依赖关系中的脆弱性。
国际宏观经济学的新方法_NOEM_DSGE模型
基金项目： 国家社科基金项目 1 -4567,04 ； -#.68--4 3 9 广东省社会科学基金项目 1 -:& ! -2 3
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第十四届中国金融学年会论文入选名单
第十四届中国金融学年会论文入选名单序号论文题目作者1Mandatory Clearing of Derivatives and Systemic Risk of Bank Holding CompaniesShaofang Li and Matej Marin?2Heterogeneous preferenc es and risk sharing at households level in China Jennifer T. Lai, Isabel K. M. Yan, XingjianYi3Financial Globalization and the International Transmission of Interest RateShocks: The Federal Reserve and ChinaXiaoli Wan4Information Asymmetry in Quasi Public Goods Crowdfunding-A Case fromChina's EV Charging PileMarket Yan Li, Qi Zhang, Ge Wang, Siyuan Chen5Microstructure Noise,Fat-Tailed Distribution of Stock Returns, and Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle Shouyu Yao, Zhenming Fang, Xin Cui, Ch unfeng Wang6Mandatory CSR Disclosure, monitoring and investment efficiency: Evidencefrom a quasi-natural experiment in ChinaLi Liu, Gary Gang Tian7Linguistic Distance and M ergers and Acquisitions: Evidence from China Lu Li, Yang Duan, Yuqian He, Kam C. C han8Failure and Rescue in C entral Clearing Counterparty Design Zhenyu Cui, Chihoon Lee, 刘彦初, Kai Wang9Margin Trading and Asset Pricing-Evidence from tShujing Wang, K.C. John Weihe Chinese Stock Market1 0Asset Pricing With ReturnExtrapolationLawrence J. Jin, Pengfei Sui1 1Familiarity Bias? The Role of Directors with Country-specific Experience inCross-Border Mergers and AcquisitionsHaoyuan Ding, Yichuan Hu, Chang Li1 2汇率制度改革与资本账户开放路径选择——基于开放经济DSGE 模型的分析彭红枫, 肖祖沔, 祝小全1 3How do bank policies affect the equity risk and cost of capitalMike Qinghao Mao，K.C. John Wei1 4Optimal Capital Structure, Investment and Debt-Equity SwapEi Yang, Shaoxuan Zheng1 5Sales, Monetary Policy, and Durable GoodsWenbin Wu1 6The crude oil-stock market link and its determinants: Evidence from emerging economiesXiaoqian Wen, Hua Cheng, Yihao Zhang1 7Dependence structure and risk spillovers betweenoil and stock markets from BRICS countriesYonghong Jiang(姜永宏), He Nie(聂禾), Bi n Mo(莫斌)1 8Asymmetric Variance Premium, Skewness Premium, and the Cross-Sectionof Stock ReturnsTao Huang, Junye Li, Fei Wu1 9Top managerial power and stock price efficiency:Evidence from ChinaMeifen Qian, Ping-Wen Sun, Bin Yu2 0Leverage Risk and Intermediary Asset Pricing: Evidence in ChinaXu Feng, Yajun Xiao2 1Responding to financial crisis Bank credit expansion with Chinese characteristicsLongyao Zhang，Enjiang Cheng，Sara Hs u2 2External Source of Political Connection: FinancialAdvisor and Chinese AcquisitionXiaoGang BI, Danni WANG2 3Switching Due DiligenceAuditors in Chinese Mergers and AcquisitionsJie Tang, Xiaogang Bi2 4Information environment, systematic volatility and stock return synchronicityJing Wang, Steven X. Wei, Wayne Yu2 5A tail of two worlds: Stock crash, market context,and expected returnsS. Ghon Rhee, Feng Wu2 6Illiquidity Shocks and Asymmetric Stock Market Reactions around the WorldIs Underreaction or Illiquidity Spiral the CulpritTe-Feng Chen，K.C. John Wei2 7Venture Capital, Innovation and Post-IPO Long-runPerformanceXueyong Zhang, Yeqing Zhang2 8Household Debt, Aggregation and Asset Pricing PuzzlesGaosheng Ju, Qi Li2 9Competition, Syndication,and Entry in the VentureCapital MarketSuting Hong3Underwriter Reputation a QiuyueZhang, XueyongZhang 0nd Post-IPO Price Perfor mance: New Evidence from IPO Fraud of ChineseListed Firms3 1Optimal Reinsurance andInvestment Problem withDefault Risk and Bounded MemoryChao Deng, Wenlong Bian, Baiyi Wu3 2Party Committee Secretary serving on corporate boards and firm bribery channelsHamish D. Anderson, Jing Liao, Jingjing Y ang, Martin Young3 3Index tracking model, downside risk and non-parametric kernel estimationJinbo Huang, Yong Li, Haixiang Yao3 4Financial Stability with Fire-salesRyuichiro Izumi, Yang Li3 5Correlation Ambiguity, Listing Choice and Market MicrostructureJunyong He（何俊勇）, Helen Hui Huang, Shunming Zhang, Wei Zhu3 6Macroeconomic Conditions and Stimuli of InvestmentYingxian Tan, Xin Xia, Jinqiang Yang3 7Financial Frictions and Trade DynamicsPaul Bergin, Ling Feng, Ching-Yi Lin3 8The Determinants of Dynamic Linkage between Stock Prices and Foreign Exchange Rates: Evidencefrom ChinaR.W. Lin3 9Horizon-unbiased Investment with Ambiguous VolatilityQian Lin, Xianming Sun4 0Time-Varying Ambiguity and Bank Lending吴伟劭, Sandy Suardi4 1Business Cycle and theValue of Cash_International EvidenceJiaxing You，Juanjuan Huang，Ling Lin，Min Xiao4 2Monetary Regulation andLiquidity Distribution Mechanism between the RealEconomy and Capital MarketMingli Xu, Hao Wang, Jisheng Yang4 3Understanding AH Premium in China Stock MarketRenbin Zhang, Tongbin Zhang4 4How Do Labor Unions Affect Payout PolicyBeibei Shen4 5Determinants of CoCo Bond Issuance InternationalEvidenceChenyu Shan，Dragon Yongjun Tang，Me ng Xie4 6Dissecting the Long-termPerformance of the Chinese Stock MarketFranklin Allen，Jun “QJ” Qian，Chenyu Shan，Julie Lei Zhu4 7Credit Default Swaps andDebt OverhangTak-Yuen Wong, Jin Yu4 8LeBow College of BusinessBang Nam Jeon, Ji Wu4 9A Conditional Valuation of Corporate Pension PlansJun Cai, Miao Luo, Alan J. Marcus5 0Interest rate liberalizationand bank pricing in credit marketYonghui Chen, Xuezhong He, Yan Zeng5 1Rational Learning and Trading Behavior in Limit Order MarketsXue-Zhong He,Shen Lin5 2Expropriation and the Sensitivity of Investment toZheng WangCash Flow-A Natural Exp eriment from China's Split -Share Structure Reform5 3Investor attention and commonality in asset pricing anomaliesLei Jiang (姜磊) , Jinyu Liu (刘津宇) , Lin Peng (彭琳) , Baolian Wang (王宝链)5 4Does Privatization Reform Alleviate Ownership Di scrimination? Evidence from the Split-share Structure Reform in ChinaJinyu Liu (刘津宇) , Zhengwei Wang (王正位) , Wuxiang Zhu (朱武祥)5 5Leverage-Induced Fire Sales and Stock Market CrashesJiangze Bian, Zhiguo He, Kelly Shue, Hao Zhou5 6Solving the High-dimensional Markowitz Optimization Problem: When Sparse Regression Meets Random Matrix TheoryMengmeng Ao, Yingying Li, Xinghua Zhen g5 7Disclosure quality, price e fficiency, and expected returnsKung-Cheng Ho, Shih-Cheng Lee, Ping-W en Sun5 8有限理性对开放式基金“业绩-流量关系”的影响伍燕然, 王凯5 9Product Market Structure and Nepotism in Bank Loan MarketsHua Cheng, Yan Dong, Xue Li 6 0是谁影响了股价崩盘风险：有形信息VS 无形信息——基于投资者行为视角的证据史永东杨瑞杰6 1动态银行网络系统的系统性风险研究范宏，杨明6 2信贷约束, 人口红利和经济增长薛熠, 张悦, 马倚虹6 3社会资本, 非正式保险与家庭的股市参与吴卫星, 祁震6 4我国债券评级行业竞争变化对评级质量影响的实证研究黄晓薇, 安小雪6 5一种动态信用风险传染模型及其应用陈典发, 邓军, 冯建芬6 6媒体, 公司治理与上市公司财务欺诈行为孙艳梅, 汪昌云6 7模糊厌恶下的动态最优投资策略张金清, 金泽宇, Yunbi An6 8中国特色的市场微观结构模型——基于准入门槛和政府调控的多市场均衡分析刘红忠, 毛杰6 9央行沟通, 政策不确定性与通胀预期王少林7 0理财产品膨胀, 利率市场化与银行风险承担问题研究项后军, 闫玉7 1Uncovering the myth of the housing price in Chinese metropolises: Allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors张玲, 边文龙, 张浩7 2Anticipating critical transitions of Chinese housingmarketsQun Zhang（张群）, Didier Sornette, Hao Zhang7 3房价上涨, 家庭债务与居民消费周利7 4族群分配政策会影响公司价值吗？——来自马来西亚土著股权配额制的经验证据范祚军, 唐菁菁, 曾海舰7Macroeconomic Trade Eff Makram El-Shagia and Lin Zhanga5ects of Vehicle Currencie s: Evidence from 19th Century China7 6高管薪酬粘性仅仅是奖优不惩劣吗？——基于非委托代理视角王修华, 谷溪7 7P2P 网贷平台的声誉依赖与信息中介的制度约束戴晓凤, 雷宇7 8P2P平台只做信息中介可行吗？刘轶, 王于栋7 9创伤经历, 风险偏好与家庭资产选择——基于全国基线调查微观数据的证据乔海曙, 粟亚8 0市场竞争, 银行市场势力与流动性创造效率——来自中国银行业的经验证据李明辉, 黄叶苨8 1关联博弈, 声誉积累与新创企业的破茧成蝶米运生, 周明明, 石晓敏, 黄斯韬8 2基于改进粒子群模糊神经网络的信用评估研究熊志斌8 3Model-free estimation of tail risk and moments using option pricesCarole Bernard, Chengli Zheng 8 4劳动调整成本, 经济增长与货币政策的就业效应杨柳8 5流动性创造, 银行稳定性与经济增长：来自中国商业银行的经验证据宋琴, 郑振龙8 6金融发展对中国企业资本结构的影响——基于资本供应视角郑承利, 秦妮8 7最终控制人投资组合与风险分担：转嫁还是共担？——来自民营上市公司的王红建, 汤泰劼, 刘梓微经验证据8 8微博, 自愿信息披露与上市公司盈余信息质量胡军, 王甄, 胡援成8 9我国机构投资者的投资行为理性吗？——基于主成分分析法的研究吕江林, 李兴9 0股票信息披露与投资者异质信念定价模型刘维奇, 李林波9 1Pollution and Performance: Do Investors Make Wo rse Trades on Hazy Day s?俞红海, 黄杰鲲, 许年行9 2影子银行, 行政监督与国家审计治理——基于国务院1 07号文与审计公告的准自然实验王家华, 曹源芳9 3中国金融市场联动特征与体系性风险识别何枫, 田利辉9 4法律保护, 社会信任与商业银行全要素生产率李双建, 李俊青, 刘凯丰9 5金融素养存在性别差异么？——基于婚姻分工,认知水平和风险态度的实证分析廖理, 初众, 张伟强9 6异质波动率之谜是否已被完全解释？陈湘鹏, 周皓, 金涛9 7系统性金融风险与SRISK 的适用性陈湘鹏, 周皓, 王正位, 金涛9 8Fuel the Engine: Bank Cr edit and Firm Innovation 戚树森9 9Evaluating Asset PricingFactorsYu Ren, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie1为什么人民币越来越重周颖刚, 王艺明, 程欣0 0要？-基于网络分析方法的汇率证据1 0 1考虑时变风险溢酬的市场有效性检验：基于上证50ETF 期权市场陈蓉, 黄帅1 0 2宏观经济政策与股市系统性风险——宏微观混合β估测方法的提出与检验邓可斌, 关子桓, 陈彬1 0 3企业的合作文化促进创新了吗？潘越, 潘健平, 马奕涵1 0 4银行竞争背景下定向降准政策的“普惠”效应——基于主板和新三板的三农, 小微企业数据的分析郭晔, 徐菲, 舒中桥1 0 5Do Social Connections Mitigate Hold-up? Evidencefrom Relation-Specific Investment and Innovation in Vertical RelationshipsSudipto Dasgupta, Kuo Zhang, Chenqi Zhu1 0 6“好”的不确定性, “坏”的不确定性与股票市场定价——基于中国A 股高频数据的研究陈国进, 丁杰, 赵向琴1 0 7金融发展, 法律保护与危机传染——中国特征与国际比较游家兴, 张哲远18IPO信息披露的可读性分析黄方亮, 王彤彤1 0 9When Are Stocks Less Volatile in the Long Run?Eric Jondeau, QunzhiZhang, Xiaoneng Zh u1 1房价波动, 楼市调控与宏观金融风险——基于未定权曹廷求, 高睿0益分析法的研究1 1 1P2P 网络借贷市场中高收入真的低风险吗？胡金焱, 张笑1 1 2文化认同与民间金融：基于方言视角的经验研究张博, 胡金焱1 1 3互联网：经济活动的空间“离心力” ——来自中国家庭创业的证据曹廷求, 王可1 1 4P2P 网络借贷与大众创业——基于“人人贷”微观数据的经验研究胡金焱, 李建文1 1 5经济周期视角下的晋升压力与地方政府债务融资行为司海平, 刘小鸽, 魏建1 1 6基于微观复杂网络与宏观金融工程的风险传染研究沈沛龙, 李志楠1 1 7股票流动性, 投资者关注与公司创新张信东, 原东良1 1 8Local government debt s cale estimating and risk evaluating based on local governmental balance sheetBaijie Wang, Sihan Zhang1 1 9“水至清则无鱼”适用于影子银行监管吗？——基于国内银行理财产品业务监管套利和透明度的研究刘莉亚, 黄叶苨, 周边1 2 0钱荒的根源：经济基本面变化，还是货币政策冲击？陈华, 郑晓亚, 赵自然1 2 1投资者“听话听音”能获得超额收益吗？-----从中国上市公司投资者电话交流会中高管声音情绪视角出发刘莉亚, 陈瑞华, 闵敏, 朱小能1 2 2“与众不同者”的价值——基于基金独特性的视角徐龙炳, 顾力绘1 2 3Optimal consumption with stochastic income and time-inconsistent preferences王远平, 牛英杰, 杨金强1 2 4卖方分析师研报有价值吗？——来自评级修正的证据安郁强, 陈选娟1 2 5碳排放权交易与企业研发- 来自中国的证据马文杰, 杨奕, 赵晓菊1 2 6金融冲击, 房地产和其它实体投资, 宏观经济波动冯玲, 葛璐澜, 李志远, 柳永明1 2 7从“一带一路”货币汇率参照篮子中看推进人民币国际化的要素丁剑平, 方琛琳, 叶伟, 张冲1 2 8我国企业年金集合计划的多重委托代理问题及其影响研究初立萍, 陈选娟, 曾韵1 2 9定向增发折价：风险投资的作用及其机制李曜, 宋贺, 龙玉1 3 0基于投入占用产出技术的部门系统重要性研究覃筱, 祁伊1 3 1Margin Trading and Price Efficiency—Information Content or Price-Adjustm吕大永, 吴文锋ent Speed1 3 2同业交流与创新表现：基于期刊举办学术会议视角曹志奇, 吴文锋, 舒海兵1 3 3Economic Policy Uncertai nty and Stock Price Crash Risk金雪军, 陈紫晴, 杨晓兰1 3 4融资融券提高了股价信息含量吗？白俊, 宫晓云, 孟庆玺1 3 5金融资产收益率的人口结构悖论：来自递延储蓄和替代效应视角的解释易祯, 朱超1 3 6高管限薪与公司业绩——来自2015年“限薪令”自然实验的证据尹志超, 蒋佳伶, 冯瑞河, 栗媛1 3 7开放经济条件下我国货币政策选择的理论与经验分析刘尧成, 庄雅淳1 3 8Why do financially constr ained suppliers provide trade credit in China? ——An extended redistribution view田钢, 于博1 3 9“股市”还是“赌市” ：基于特质性偏度的投资者博彩偏好定价研究王春峰, 姚守宇, 房振明, 崔欣1 4 0Dynamic effects of Analyst Forecasts on Information Asymmetry comparingwith Company’s Announ cements in Chinese Security Market李洋, 向健凯, 王春峰, 房振明1 4雾霾天气与投资者决策-来自互联网论坛的证据张维, 孟祥桐, 冯绪11 4 2利差扭曲与最优金融稳定政策何国华, 李洁, 刘岩1 4 3零利率下限, 汇率传递与货币政策王胜, 周上尧1 4 4银行规模, 综合化经营与我国银行业的系统性风险张天顶1 4 5高管薪酬与资本结构动态调整罗琦, 谢辰, 应惟伟1 4 6股东持股, 技术溢出与企业创新崔静波, 郑旸1 4 7新型流动性指标与流动性溢价杨兴哲, 周翔翼1 4 8超额准备金, 货币政策传导机制与调控方式转型——基于银行信贷市场的分析王晓芳, 郑斌1 4 9投资者羊群行为总是不利于市场运行吗？——来自中国艺术品市场的证据石阳, 刘瑞明1 5 0经济政策不确定性与企业贷款成本宋全云, 吴雨, 钱龙1 5 1Maturity Mismatch and In centives: Evidence fromBank Issued Wealth Man agement Products in ChinaJinjin Liu, Hongyan Fang, Ronghua Luo, Senyang Zhao1存贷比约束, 货币政策与银王擎, 李元52行信贷1 5 3When Interim CEOs areNamed Formal CEO: A Try-out Succession何潇潇1 5 4尖刀上的舞蹈——民间借贷债务催收涉黑化倾向的田野调查与经济解释丁骋骋1 5 5股市政策对股票市场的影响——基于投资者社会互动的视角杨晓兰, 王伟超, 高媚1 5 6关联关系, 融资约束缓解与投资动态调整—来自担保贷款的融资与风险权衡张小茜1 5 7A Least Squares Regression Realized CovariationEstimation under MMS IngmarNolte, MichalisVasios, ValeriVoev, QiXu1 5 8遗产继承会扩大财富差距吗？——来自中国健康与养老追踪调查的证据韦宏耀, 钟涨宝1 5 9“新常态”下省际人民币汇率传递效应的非对称性和非线性及其影响因素研究---基于多维DCC-GARCH模型曹伟, 钱水土, 万谍1 6 0Do Non-Discretionary Allocation and Uniform-Pricing Rule Really Matter for Information Production in IPOsBo Liu, Xinru Ma1 6 1“险资举牌”现象与分散股权时代我国上市公司的治理郑志刚, 石丽娜, 黄继承, 郭杰16企业过度负债的同群效应李志生, 孔东民, 苏诚, 李好21 6 3会计准则具有去杠杆的作用吗？——来自上市公司资本结构决策的微观证据晏超1 6 4我国金融部门宏观金融风险研究——基于重构资产负债表和CCA 模型的分析白小滢, 王乔乔1 6 5经济发展水平对跨境资本流动的门限效应——兼评中国“非理性”对外投资周先平, 谭本艳, 向古月1 6 6An Experimental Study o n a Novel Artificial Financial Market Model曹宏铎, 李旲, 欧阳辉1 6 7社会保险和大众创业：“创业枷锁”还是“创业催化剂”？王永钦, 戴芸, 包特1 6 8利率市场化, 银行利率与货币政策价格型调控陆军, 黄嘉, 童玉芬1 6 9房地产金融化：界定, 表现及其经济效应李建军, 韩珣1 7 0The role of foreign and d omestic venture capital in innovation evidence from ChinaJiangjing Que，Xueyong Zhang 1 7 1The Dynamic Co-movem ent between the Exchange Rates of European Countries and Chinese Renminbi黄乃静, 汪寿阳1 7 2经济政策不确定性与企业投资：实物期权渠道还是金融摩擦渠道？谭小芬, 张文婧1 7 3Liquidity Risk and Corporate Risk-takingJing-zhi Huang, Huayi Tang, Yuan Wang, Rui Zhong1 7 4CDS Trading and StockPrice Crash RiskJinyu Liu, Jeffrey Ng, Dragon Yongjun Ta ng, Rui Zhong1 7 5Measuring Financial Risk Contagion among International Stock Markets: AEMD-Copula-CoVaR ApproachDa Wang, Qiang Zhang, Changqing Luo 1 7 6去杠杆, 转杠杆与货币政策传导周俊仰, 汪勇1 7 7Household Financial Constraint and Local BankingStructureYiyi Bai, Zhisheng Li1 7 8人民币汇率与境内外股票市场波动溢出效应研究——基于三元BEKK-GARCH模型吴丽华, 江蓝微, 曾连彬1 7 9The long term impact of the 1959-1961 famine inChina on stock holdingsof survivorsJennifer T. Lai, Xingjian Yi, Cong Zhou1 8 0金融杠杆与资产价格泡沫：理论机制及其非对称效应刘晓星, 石广平1 8 1银行业竞争融资约束与企业创新来自银监会与企业专利申请数据的证据李子健, 李春涛1 8 2VPIN, volatility and the 2015 stock market crash in China Evidence from the SSE 50 index derivative marketsYuqin Huang, Xingguo Luo, Shihua Qin，L ibin Tao1 8 3Baidu News InformationFlow and Return Volatility-Evidence for the SIAH沈德华, 李晓, 张维1 8 4官员晋升、人力资本错配与企业劳动投资效率孔东民, 项君怡, 刘莎莎1 8 5货币政策、银行所有制与影子银行王擎, 李川, 盛夏1 8 6契约条款与债券融资成本的相互选择史永东, 王彤彤, 田渊博1 8 7货币政策、同业业务与银行流动性创造郭晔, 程玉伟, 黄振1 8 8The Role of Analysts: An Examination of the Idiosyncratic Volatility Anomaly in the Chinese Stock MarketMing Gu, George J. Jiang, and Bu Xu 1 8 9Cross-Ownership in Inter- Corporate Loans in China戚树森。
跨过雄关险隘还要闯关夺隘英语作文
跨过雄关险隘还要闯关夺隘英语作文全文共3篇示例，供读者参考篇1The journey of life is paved with obstacles and challenges that test our resilience and determination. As a student, I have encountered numerous hurdles along the way, each presenting its own unique set of difficulties and trials. However, it is through facing and overcoming these formidable obstacles that we truly grow and evolve, emerging stronger and more capable than ever before.One of the most daunting challenges I have faced as a student is the constant pressure to excel academically. From the moment we step foot into the educational system, we are bombarded with expectations, deadlines, and the unrelenting demand to perform at our highest level. It is a constant battle against procrastination, self-doubt, and the overwhelming weight of responsibilities. Yet, it is through perseverance and an unwavering commitment to our goals that we can overcome these hurdles and achieve academic success.Recall the countless nights spent poring over textbooks, the endless hours dedicated to research and writing, and the countless revisions made to assignments in pursuit of perfection. These moments were not merely exercises in academic rigor but also tests of our mental fortitude and determination. Each time we pushed through the fatigue and frustration, we emerged stronger, more disciplined, and better equipped to tackle the next challenge that lay ahead.Moreover, the path to educational excellence is often fraught with financial obstacles. For many students, the cost of tuition, textbooks, and living expenses can be a formidable barrier, threatening to derail their academic aspirations. It is in these moments that we must dig deep within ourselves, exploring every available avenue for financial assistance, be it scholarships, grants, or part-time employment. The ability to overcome financial hurdles not only showcases our resourcefulness but also our unwavering commitment to our educational goals.Beyond the academic realm, we as students must also navigate the complexities of social dynamics and personal growth. The transition from adolescence to adulthood is a journey rife with challenges, as we grapple with issues of identity,self-discovery, and the ever-evolving landscape of interpersonal relationships. It is during this crucial phase that we must learn to embrace our individuality, cultivate self-confidence, and develop the emotional intelligence necessary to navigate the intricacies of human interaction.Amidst these trials, it is easy to succumb to feelings of inadequacy, self-doubt, and the temptation to abandon our dreams. However, it is in these moments of darkness that we must summon the strength to carry on, drawing inspiration from those who have walked this path before us and emerged victorious. We must remind ourselves that every obstacle is an opportunity for growth, every challenge a testament to our resilience, and every setback a chance to reaffirm our commitment to our goals.As we look back on our academic journeys, we will undoubtedly encounter moments of triumph and celebration, where the fruits of our labor are realized and our efforts are rewarded. Yet, it is the obstacles and challenges we have overcome that will truly define us and shape our character. For it is in these moments of adversity that we have forged the resolve, determination, and perseverance that will serve us well beyond the confines of the classroom.To my fellow students, I implore you to embrace the challenges that lie ahead, for they are not obstacles to be feared but rather opportunities to be seized. Approach each hurdle with a mindset of growth, a willingness to learn, and an unshakable belief in your own capabilities. Seek guidance from mentors and peers, for their wisdom and support can be invaluable allies in your journey.Remember, the path to success is rarely a straight line; it is a winding road filled with twists, turns, and unexpected detours. But it is through facing and overcoming these formidable obstacles that we truly discover the depths of our strength and the heights of our potential. Embrace the challenges, my fellow students, for in doing so, we not only conquer the obstacles that stand before us but also emerge as champions of our own destinies.篇2Conquering the Unconquerable: My Journey Through Life's HurdlesAs I stand here today, basking in the glory of accomplishments hard-earned, I can't help but reflect on the arduous path that led me to this moment. Life, as they say, is aseries of peaks and valleys, triumphs and tribulations, and the true measure of a person lies in their ability to navigate through the tumultuous terrain with unwavering determination.From the moment we take our first breath, we are thrust into a world brimming with challenges, each one more formidable than the last. As children, we learn to walk, talk, and navigate the complexities of social interactions, stumbling and falling along the way. But it is in these early trials that we forge the resilience and grit that will carry us through the years to come.For me, the first true test came in the form of academic pursuits. The transition from primary to secondary education was a daunting one, filled with unfamiliar subjects, rigorous curriculums, and the ever-present pressure to excel. I remember nights spent poring over textbooks, wrestling with complex concepts, and questioning my own abilities. But with each stumbling block, I learned the value of perseverance, the importance of seeking help when needed, and the power of hard work in surmounting even the most insurmountable obstacles.As the years progressed, the challenges evolved, taking on new forms and complexities. Family dynamics, peer pressure, and the constant tug-of-war between ambition and self-doubt threatened to derail my path. But through it all, I clung to thelessons I had learned, drawing strength from my past triumphs and using them as fuel to propel me forward.It was during my university years that I faced what I consider to be the greatest trial of my life thus far. A debilitating illness struck, forcing me to take a hiatus from my studies and confront the fragility of my own existence. The road to recovery was long and arduous, filled with setbacks and moments of despair. Yet, it was in those darkest hours that I discovered the true depth of my resilience, the unwavering support of loved ones, and the unbreakable spirit that dwelled within me.Through it all, I learned that the greatest obstacles are often those that we cannot see or touch. The battles we wage within ourselves – against fear, doubt, and self-limiting beliefs – can be the most formidable foes of all. But it is in conquering these internal adversaries that we unlock our true potential, shedding the shackles of self-doubt and embracing the limitless possibilities that lie before us.As I stand on the cusp of a new chapter, armed with the hard-won wisdom of my past trials, I cannot help but feel a sense of profound gratitude. For it is through these challenges that I have grown, evolved, and emerged as a stronger, more resilient version of myself. Each hurdle, each setback, has been a steppingstone, propelling me toward greater heights and deeper levels of self-understanding.To my fellow travelers on this journey called life, I implore you: embrace the challenges that come your way. For it is in the crucible of adversity that true strength is forged. Approach each obstacle with a spirit of determination, a willingness to learn, and an unshakable belief in your own capabilities.Remember, the path to greatness is rarely a straight line. It is a winding road, replete with twists and turns, peaks and valleys. But it is in navigating these very obstacles that we discover our true mettle, our ability to adapt and overcome.So, let us stand tall, shoulders squared, and face the world with unwavering courage. For it is in conquering the unconquerable that we truly come alive, unleashing the full potential of our spirit and leaving an indelible mark on the tapestry of existence.篇3Crossing Formidable Passes and Seizing OpportunitiesLife's journey is paved with challenges, imposing their formidable presence like towering mountain passes that must be traversed. These obstacles test our resolve, demandingunwavering determination and an unyielding spirit to conquer the seemingly unconquerable. As a student navigating the intricate landscape of academia, I have encountered my fair share of daunting hurdles, each presenting an opportunity for growth and self-discovery.The first formidable pass I encountered was the transition from the comfortable confines of high school to the vast expanse of university life. The weight of newfound independence and the necessity to forge my own path weighed heavily upon my shoulders. Courses became more rigorous, expectations soared, and the competition intensified, creating a dizzying array of challenges that threatened to overwhelm me.Navigating this treacherous terrain was akin to scaling a precipitous mountain, where every step demanded caution and unwavering focus. I quickly realized that my old study habits and approaches were no longer sufficient, forcing me to adapt and evolve. Through trial and error, I developed new strategies, seeking guidance from professors and upperclassmen who had already traversed this formidable pass.Gradually, I learned to embrace the art of time management, meticulously balancing my academic commitments with extracurricular pursuits and social engagements. I discovered thepower of prioritization, allocating my energy and resources judiciously to ensure optimal performance across all facets of university life.Yet, even as I gained a foothold on this treacherous terrain, new challenges emerged, each one more daunting than the last. Demanding coursework, research projects, and the looming specter of examinations conspired to test the limits of my resilience. It was during these moments of intense pressure that I truly learned the value of perseverance and unwavering determination.Like a mountaineer scaling precarious cliffs, I clung to my aspirations, refusing to surrender to the siren call of complacency or mediocrity. I sought solace in the wisdom of those who had conquered similar peaks, drawing inspiration from their triumphs and learning from their missteps.Through this arduous journey, I discovered an invaluable truth: the most formidable passes often conceal the greatest opportunities for personal growth and self-discovery. With each obstacle surmounted, I gained newfound confidence in my abilities, a deeper understanding of my strengths and weaknesses, and a heightened appreciation for the value of hard work and perseverance.As I approach the summit of my academic journey, I reflect upon the countless passes I have traversed, each one more formidable than the last. The path has been arduous, marked by sleepless nights, moments of self-doubt, and the ever-present specter of failure. Yet, it is in these moments of adversity that I have truly learned to savor the sweet taste of triumph, for it is only by conquering the unconquerable that we truly come to understand the depths of our potential.Looking ahead, I know that the challenges will not abate; indeed, they will only increase in complexity and intensity as I venture forth into the professional realm. However, I am emboldened by the knowledge that I have already proven my mettle, scaling formidable passes that once seemed insurmountable.The path ahead may be shrouded in uncertainty, but I am armed with the lessons learned from my academic odyssey. I have cultivated a relentless determination, an unyielding resilience, and an unwavering commitment to seizing every opportunity that presents itself.For it is not the absence of challenges that defines success, but rather the ability to confront them head-on, to embrace the discomfort of growth, and to emerge victorious, armed with thewisdom and fortitude to conquer the next formidable pass that lies in wait.As I stand poised on the precipice of this new chapter, I am filled with a profound sense of gratitude for the trials and tribulations that have shaped me into the individual I am today. The formidable passes I have conquered have forged within me an unshakable resolve, a thirst for knowledge, and an insatiable hunger for growth.With each challenge surmounted, I have gained invaluable insights into the depths of my own character, learning to harness my strengths and confront my weaknesses with unwavering honesty. I have come to understand that true greatness lies not in the absence of adversity, but in the courage to confront it head-on, to embrace the discomfort of growth, and to emerge victorious, armed with the wisdom and fortitude to conquer the next formidable pass that lies in wait.As I look towards the horizon, I am filled with a profound sense of excitement and anticipation. For it is in the crucible of adversity that the true mettle of a person is forged, and it is in the conquest of formidable passes that we truly seize the opportunities that define our lives.With each step forward, I carry with me the lessons learned from my academic odyssey, a testament to the indomitable spirit of the human soul and its capacity to overcome even the most daunting of obstacles. I am armed with the knowledge that success is not a destination, but a journey – a relentless pursuit of growth, fueled by an unwavering commitment to seizing every opportunity that presents itself.So, as I bid farewell to the hallowed halls of academia and embark upon the next chapter of my journey, I do so with a profound sense of gratitude for the formidable passes I have conquered, and an unwavering resolve to embrace the challenges that lie ahead. For it is in the conquest of the unconquerable that we truly discover the boundless depths of our potential, and it is in the seizing of opportunities that we forge our own destinies.。
地球上的生活与太空有什么不同英语作文
地球上的生活与太空有什么不同英语作文Life on Earth and in Space: A Comparative ExplorationThe Earth, our home planet, has long been the stage upon which humanity has played out its existence. From the bustling cities to the serene wilderness, the diversity of life and environments found on this world is truly astounding. However, as humanity has ventured beyond the confines of our planet, a new frontier has emerged - the realm of space exploration. The experience of living and working in the vastness of the cosmos presents a stark contrast to the familiar conditions we take for granted on Earth. In this essay, we will delve into the key differences between life on Earth and in the unforgiving environment of space.One of the most fundamental distinctions lies in the presence and nature of gravity. On Earth, we are subject to the constant pull of our planet's gravitational field, which shapes the very nature of our existence. This force dictates the way we move, the way we perceive our surroundings, and even the way our bodies function. From the effortless act of standing upright to the ability to freely navigate ourthree-dimensional world, gravity is an ever-present force that we have adapted to over the course of our evolution.In stark contrast, the microgravity environment of space presents a radically different set of challenges. Without the familiar pull of gravity, the human body undergoes a series of physiological changes that can have profound implications. Muscles and bones, no longer required to support the body's weight, begin to atrophy, leading to a loss of strength and density. The circulatory system must adapt to the lack of gravitational forces, causing fluids to shift and redistribute within the body. Even the sensory organs, such as the inner ear, struggle to maintain their equilibrium, leading to disorientation and motion sickness.These physical challenges are further compounded by the psychological impact of living in a weightless environment. The absence of up and down, the lack of a stable reference point, and the confinement of spacecraft can all contribute to a sense of disorientation and isolation. Astronauts must learn to adapt to these unfamiliar conditions, developing new strategies for performing even the most basic tasks, such as sleeping, eating, and personal hygiene.Another significant difference between life on Earth and in space is the exposure to the harsh realities of the cosmic environment. While the Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field provide a protectiveshield against the harmful radiation and cosmic particles that permeate space, astronauts must contend with these dangers on a constant basis. Solar flares, cosmic rays, and other forms of radiation pose a serious threat to their health, increasing the risk of cancer and other long-term health problems.In addition, the vacuum of space presents its own unique challenges. Without the atmospheric pressure and oxygen-rich environment that we take for granted on Earth, astronauts must rely on specialized life support systems to survive. The slightest breach in their protective equipment could lead to catastrophic consequences, as the lack of air pressure would cause their bodies to rapidly decompress, with potentially fatal results.Furthermore, the vast distances and isolation of space can have a profound impact on the psychological well-being of astronauts. Separated from their loved ones and the familiar comforts of Earth, they must learn to cope with the loneliness and confinement of living in a small, enclosed spacecraft for extended periods. The need to maintain constant communication with mission control and the limited opportunities for social interaction can take a toll on their mental health, leading to issues such as depression, anxiety, and cognitive impairment.Despite these challenges, the experience of living and working inspace also offers unique opportunities and perspectives. Astronauts are afforded a vantage point that few on Earth can ever imagine, allowing them to gaze upon our planet from a distance and gain a profound appreciation for the fragility and beauty of our home. This "overview effect," as it is often called, can lead to a deeper understanding of our place in the universe and a renewed commitment to environmental stewardship.Furthermore, the microgravity environment of space provides a unique laboratory for scientific research, enabling experiments and observations that would be impossible to conduct on Earth. From the study of fluid dynamics and materials science to the exploration of the origins of the universe, the insights gained from space-based research have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the world around us.In conclusion, the differences between life on Earth and in space are vast and profound. While the familiar pull of gravity, the protective embrace of our atmosphere, and the comfort of our terrestrial environments are essential to our well-being, the challenges and opportunities presented by the cosmic frontier offer a tantalizing glimpse into the future of human exploration and discovery. As we continue to push the boundaries of our understanding and our capabilities, the lessons learned from life in space will undoubtedly shape the way we perceive and engage with our own planet,ultimately leading to a deeper appreciation for the fragile and wondrous world we call home.。
经济政策不确定性对股市、债市和基金市场动态相关性的影响——基于DCC-MIDAS_实证
2023年10月第26卷第20期中国管理信息化China Management InformationizationOct.,2023Vol.26,No.20经济政策不确定性对股市、债市和基金市场动态相关性的影响——基于DCC-MIDAS实证马奕虹，蒋小莲（桂林电子科技大学商学院，广西桂林541004）［摘 要］文章采用GARCH-MIDAS（以下简称G-M）、DCC-MIDAS（以下简称D-M）模型，探讨股票、债券和基金市场的动态相关性及经济政策不确定性（Economic Policy Uncertainty Index,EPU）对相关性的影响。
结果表明，股市与基市具有高度长短期正相关性；债市与股市、基市相关性较小，且呈现大幅波动和频繁正负转换趋势，短期相关大于长期相关。
EPU指数对股债基两两长期相关有显著正向影响。
［关键词］动态相关；经济政策不确定性；GARCH-MIDAS；DCC-MIDASdoi：10.3969/j.issn.1673 - 0194.2023.20.047［中图分类号］F832.5 ［文献标识码］A ［文章编号］1673-0194（2023）20-0145-040 引 言随着金融市场一体化及我国金融体制改革的不断深化，金融市场间信息传导、市场运作和资金轮动效率得到极大提升，“蝴蝶效应”显现，联动性趋势增强。
考察不同金融市场间联动性具有重要理论价值和现实意义，对投资者优化资产配置、理性投资决策，监管机构进行有效监管，政府预判政策效果都具有较强的指导意义。
我国正处于经济体制转型升级的关键阶段，经济政策调整比较频繁，投资者情绪常常受到舆论及政策影响，进而影响其预期及投资决策。
在政策不确定性飙升时期，金融市场波动剧烈，偏好“避险”的投资者常将资产转移到风险较小的市场。
经济政策不确定性会对金融市场间相关性产生重要影响。
股票、债券和基金是最常见的资产配置方式，很多文献研究其收益率波动及相关性特征。