日本在东亚及东南亚的直接投资

The Japanese FDI in East and Southeast AsiaTable of Content:1.Introduction …………………………………..………..………….………. P.22.Japanese FDI strategy after WWIIi. A brief review of Japanese FDI history from 1960s to early 2000s…... P.2-4ii.Motive of Japanese FDI to East and Southeast Asia ……………...….. P.4-53.Japanese FDI strategies after the financial crisis in 2008i.Mindset change of Japanese FDI strategy …………………………….. P.5-6ii.Opportunities brought by the financial crisis ……….……………...…. P.64.Areas to push FDI after financial crisisi.Production, R&D and Supply Chain ………..…………………...…….. P.7-8ii.Resource ……………………………………………………………….. P.8-9 iii.Development of emerging market ………………….………………….. P.95.The future of Japanese FDI under the increasing competition of China …. P.9-116.Conclusion ……………………………………………………………….…P.117.Source …………………………………………………………………….... P.121.IntroductionAfter WWII, Japan exhibited the economic miracle and became the most developed country in Asia. Throughout the years in 20nd century after WWII, Japan has long been the economic driving force in East and Southeast Asia and exerted enormous influential power to these regions. The most obvious way that Japan showed its influence is the amount of FDI that Japan has pushed in East and Southeast Asia. For a long time, Japanese FDI is one of the major capital inflows in the East and Southeast Asia which can be seen by the uncountable number of Japanese companies, factories and facilities that established in the regions.However, as the burst of economics bubble of Japan in early 1990s, followed by the Asia financial crisis in 1997 and the financial crisis in 2008, the Japan economic downturn seems to continue without a signal of recovery. More, the neighbor of Japan, China, showed increasingly influence in Asia started from 2000s. Japanese FDI faces more and more challenges than that of last century. In the following discussion, we will evaluate the Japanese FDI strategy from the past to the recent years. Then, the FDI strategies after the financial crisis in 2008 and the future situation of Japanese FDI under the increasing competition of China in Southeast Asia will be discussed.1.Japanese FDI strategy after WWIIi. A brief review of Japanese FDI history from 1960s to early 2000s1 The Japanese FDI History in East Asia started with late 60s and early 70s. This was believed to be triggered by several reasons, e.g. yen appreciation and the needs to relocate the manufacturing base away from Japan. The Nixon shocks led to the end of fixed exchange rates and the appreciation of the yen against the dollar, while the first oil crisis in 1973 increased the energy and production costs for Japanese companiesinside Japan, and forced them to be less reliance on heavy industry. Also, the rise in labor costs in Japan and the increasing pressure from Japanese public to move heavy and polluting industries offshore made the Japanese corporation to seek for overseas productions capacity. This resulted in the upsurge of Japanese FDI in the East Asia region that the FDI increased from US$165 million in 1970 to US$1 billion in 1975, in which most of the FDI went into textile (30%-40%) and electronics (15%-30%) industries.The 2nd upsurge of Japanese FDI occurred in the later 70s and early 80s. This was the result from the continuous effort of Japanese corporations to restructure and seek lower labor cost in East and Southeast Asia. More, the development of NIE in Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong) also drew a lot of Japanese FDI. The investment mainly flowed into metallurgical and chemical industries. As a result, the FDI in East and Southeast Asia increased from $1,007 million in 1975 to $1,375 million in 1978.The 3rd and largest upsurge of Japanese FDI occurred in mid to late 1980s. The Plaza Accord of 1985 forced yen to appreciate against dollars by up to 70% and this created a major driving force for Japanese corporations to invest overseas. The major FDI went into electronics, automobiles and manufacturing assembly. Another observation of Japanese FDI in late 1980s is that the geographical concentration of Japanese FDI started to shift from the NIEs-4 to the ASEAN-4 (Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia). This indicated the rising wage and currency in the NIEs-4 that force Japanese corporation to seek for the place of lower cost.The 4th upsurge of FDI occurred in early 1990s. The further appreciation of yen toaround 100 yen to the dollar became the main driving force to the increase in Japanese FDI. In 1995 Japanese FDI in East and Southeast Asia rose to $11.7billion, or 23% of Japan’s total world FDI. The major part of Japanese investment was devoted to manufacturing industry mainly in the electronics, automobile and metallurgy industries.Since mid-1990s, Japan’s FDI to East Asia was fluctuated in terms of overall proportion of its world FDI. In the late-1990s, the Asia Financial Crisis and the prolong economic downturn after burst of Japan’s economic bubble caused Japan FDI in East and Southeast Asia to decline and fluctuate. In 2003-2004, the geographical focus has also shifted, with China 9% per Japan’s worldwide FDI, 5% for ASEAN-4 and 3% for the NIEs-4.ii.Motive of Japanese FDI to East and Southeast AsiaOver the year, two main reasons for Japanese Corporation to invest in East and Southeast Asia can be summarized. They are the appreciation of yen and the seeking of lower production cost. Undoubtedly, the yen appreciation means that the purchasing power of yen in overseas increases, in which Japanese corporation can spend lesser to establish the overseas production base. On the other hand, the high production cost inside Japan such as labor cost, together with the increasing pressure to move the highly polluted production process offshore, these entire factors triggered the upsurge of Japanese FDI to the rest of AsiaThe strategy of Japanese FDI also reflects the mindset or principle of Japanese corporations. Japanese corporations treated East and Southeast Asia as production bases for products that export to the North America and West Europe. In other words,there was a triangular relationship between Japan, East & Southeast Asia and North America & West Europe, where the Japanese FDI flowed to East & Southeast Asia for production and the product then exported to North America and West Europe. The Purchase amount then finally went to Japan.2. Japanese FDI strategies after the financial crisis in 2008In the September of 2008, the Lehman burst signaled the beginning of financial crisis. The financial crisis originated in US and spread to rest of the world especially West Europe. The detrimental influences of the crisis are mainly expressed in the developed nations, such as US, England and Japan. 2Their GDP showed a negative growth after the crisis. For example, the GDP Growth 2008 for US, England and Japan are -1.83%, -0.53% and -4.23% respectively . These implied that the traditional market of Japan, US and West Europe, can no longer has the purchasing power to support Japan’s export as before. Therefore, Japan has to seek other way s out rather than being too dependence on the US and West Europe market.i. Mindset change of Japanese FDI strategyJapan economy is very dependent on export, which can be viewed by the overseas portions of the major famous Japanese corporations. For example, the 2007 overseas sales proportion of Toyota, Honda and Sony are 76%, 83% and73%A triangular relationship between Japan, East & Southeast Asia and US & West Europerespectively. Before the Financial crisis, the mindset of Japanese FDI that treating East and Southeast Asia as production base for producing product to export to US and West Europe has been effective for long. However, as mentioned that the purchasing power of US and West Europe has been harmed to a large extent that affected directly to Japanese export.On the other hand, the situation in other East and Southeast Asia countries are different from US and West Europe. 3China recorded a strong GDP Growth 11.9% in 2009 and 4Thailand also recorded 3.8%. The growing living standard in East Asia and Southeast Asia is a best potential market, especially China, to absorb the export of Japanese. Therefore, the mindset of Japanese FDI strategies, which lasted for several decades, should be changed. That is, Japanese corporations should invest in East and Southeast Asia not only for production bases but also developing them as a market to absorb Japanese goods.ii.Opportunities brought by the financial crisisAs discussed before, the yen appreciation has been the major driving force for Japanese outwards FDI in the past few decades where the most representative appreciation appeared after the plaza accord created the largest upsurge of Japanese FDI in late 1980s and early 1990s. Similarly, the financial crisis caused the yen appreciation to the historical high in the past 10 years and continues to stay at a high level. This, again, gives Japanese corporations an opportunity to make use of the increased purchasing power because of high yen to invest in the East and Southeast Asia countries. However, this time, the FDI should also consider investing in building up the market, e.g. marketing and merge & acquisition of good local companies.3. Areas to push FDI after financial crisisAfter the financial crisis, three areas can be summarized for Japan corporations to push FDI. They are (i) Production, R&D and Supply Chain, (ii) Resources and (iii) Development of Emerging Market.i. Production, R&D and Supply ChainThe Japanese has long been remarked as high quality and price competitive such as the automobile and electronics products. However, in the past decades, the Korean and Chinese corporations developed at a high speed and competed vigorously with the Japanese corporations. Japanese b rand’s competitivene ss over the competitors become vanishing. This phenomenon can be viewed by the Flat Panel Display TV (FPDTV) market, in which more and more consumers choose Korean brands.Taking Sony as an example, Sony has long been the giant in consumer electronics goods. The Sony Trinitron TV has been the market leader in TV market worldwide for several decades. However, Samsung and LG replaced Sony as the market leader in the FPDTV market. 5In 2009, Samsung recorded 17.2% world market share in FPDTV market, nearly one in five televisions shipped during 2009 was Samsung’s. Another Korean company , LG, also occupied 14.8% market share. However, Sony can only achieve 5.9% market share.17.2% 5.9%6.6%14.8%6.9%48.6%FPDTV Market share of different brands 2009SamsungSonyTCLLGPanasonicOthersKorean companies, Samsung and LG, have vertically integrated all stages of the value chain from R&D, semiconductor & Panel, Assembly to Supply Chain in manufacturing FDPTV within their own corporate organizations, which secures all the material and process in the region of relatively low cost such as ASEAN. However, Sony does have the entire value chain, which means Sony need to purchase panels from other parties. Moreover, Sony’s assemble of the finished products domestically also lowered the profitability or price-competiveness when comparing to its Korean rivalsThere is almost no economic rationale for having domestic manufacturing bases which products are intended for sale overseas. Therefore, it is now the high time brought by the high yen rate to invest in building up the production facilities, R&D and value & supply chain in East and Southeast Asia. Manufacturers should shift to local integrated manufacturing in ASEAN. Also, acquiring local corporations with established value and supply chain can facilitate Japanese companies’ development.ii.ResourceJapan is highly dependent on overseas countries for resources, especially food. 6Japan has 5.04 million hectare farmland which can only satisfy 40% domestics demand. That means the majority of food are imported. Japanese companies should not merely purchase from overseas corporations, but should buy or acquire stakes in companies to gain control of manufacturing processes overseas from upstream to downstream. By acquiring manufacturing and logistics capabilities overseas for vegetables and cereals, as well as for meat and fish products, Japanese corporations can not only lower their ingredient costs, but can boost their competitiveness by vertically integrating these with their own processed food manufacturing operations athome and abroad.iii.Development of emerging marketIn order to build up the brand power of Japanese products in the emerging market like China and ASEAN countries, Japanese corporation should increase their marketing expense so that the brand awareness among the consumers in the emerging market could be increased. Since the potential purchasing power of emerging is huge, it is worth investing at this stage for market development.On the other hand, merge and acquire the good local companies is another way to speed up the development of emerging market. By bringing powerful local companies into Japanese organizations, Japanese products will rapidly increase their local market presence. Utilizing the strong local brand power and supply chain networks of the merged or acquired companies, it is easier to transfer the brands of the Japanese corporations to the local markets. Recently, some Japanese corporations also adopted the merger and acquisition strategy to increase the paces of developing emerging market. For example, Asahi bought 20% share of famous Chinese beer companies, Qingdao Beer, in 2009. Kirin brought 49% share of San Miguel Beer of Philippines in 2009. These activities enable Asahi and Kirin to make use of the established supply chain network to facilitate the market entries of their products4.The Future of Japanese FDI under the increasing competition of ChinaIn the 21st century, the ASEAN region will become the major place to invest in Asia. ASEAN provide resources, e.g. mineral, limber and food, and also cheap labors. Japanese FDI will have no doubt to increase pushing FDI into ASEAN region. However, unlike last century which Japan is the main FDI to invest in Southeast Asia,China now also joins the competition.7China’s Efforts to boost economic ties with ASEAN can be back tracked in 1991 when China entered into Dialogue relations with ASEAN in 1991 and obtained full ASEAN Dialogue Partner status in 1996. In 2000, Chinese officials suggested the idea of a China-ASEAN FTA. In 2002, ASEAN and China signed the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation to create an ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) within 10 years. In 2004, the two sides signed the Agreement on Trade in Goods of the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation between the ASEAN and China, which included a schedule of tariff reductions and eventual elimination for most tariff lines between the two sides.The efforts of China government in building up economic relationship with ASEAN facilitated Chinese FDI into the region. Taking energy as example, China has been actively pushing FDI to ASEAN countries on a number of energy related projects. For example, in 2007, China National Petroleum Corporation signed production sharing contracts with Myanmar’s Ministry of Energy covering crude oil and natural gas exploration projects in three deep-water blocks off the western Myanmar coast. In 2007, the Vietnamese government had authorized state-owned PetroVietnam to begin joint oil and gas operations with China National Offshore Oil Corporation in the Gulf of Tonkin. Also, in the same year, Chinese oil companies planned to invest as much as $14 billion in Indonesia’s oil and gas exploration sectors.These examples of Chinese corporations actively pushing FDI in the Energy areaindicated that Chinese corporations are looking the same things with that Japanese corporations are looking for, e.g. resources. Together with the increasing economics influences of China to ASEAN regions, e.g. by official development assistance (ODA), Japanese corporations will face keener competition in Southeast Asia. Therefore, Japanese Corporations are now in the crucial time to push FDI into Southeast Asia in this high yen opportunity. On the other hand, Japanese corporation could also seek for win-win solution rather than pure competition between Chinese corporations. For example, they form Joint Venture Company in directing FDI into Southeast Asia and share the resources as well as the labor force.5.ConclusionFor over the fifty years after WWII, Japan was the one of the main FDI source in East and East Asia regions. The major FDI were pushed to establish production facilities which the products then exported to US and West Europe market. However, as the financial crisis harmed the economy of US and West Europe, the Japanese export sales to these markets have been largely affected. Therefore, Japanese corporations now should grasp the opportunity of high yen rate to speed up the investment in the Southeast Asia, not only for resources and production facilities, but also the market development.7. 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