金融危机总是重复重复再重复_《这次不一样：800年金融荒唐史》书评

金融危机总是重复重复再重复《这次不一样：800年金融荒唐史》书评中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心张明但凡看过周星驰《大内密探零零发》的朋友，都会对其中“重复、重复、再重复”的话记忆犹新。

这句话用来描述金融危机也很贴切。

而马克吐温则有句更高明的话值得我们回味：“历史不会重复自己，但会押着同样的韵脚”。

卡门莱因哈特与肯尼斯罗高夫合作的《这次不一样？800 年金融荒唐史》以庞大的气魄、翔实的数据向我们展示了数个世纪以来全球范围内金融危机的全景图。

该书涉及的危机包括债务危机、汇率危机与银行危机三大类，其中对债务危机的论述尤为透彻。

该书有助于厘清我们之前关于金融危机的一些混淆乃至错误的观点，并能够在历史分析与经验研究的基础上为我们织出一幅能够帮助我们更好地理解金融危机的图景。

本书的一大宗旨，是批评世人总是周期性地变得过于乐观，总是认为技术创新、制度变革以及经验累积能够使得经济摆脱金融危机的困扰，即“这次不一样”(This Time Is Different)。

The book deals with the crisis, including the debt crisis, currency crisis andbanking crisis in three major categories, including the debt crisis is particularly thorough exposition. The book helps to clarify some of the confusion about the financial crisis and even the wrong point of view, and can be in the history of the analysis and empirical research based on a piece of us to help us to better understand the financial crisis.A big purpose of this book is to criticize the world is always a cyclical way too optimistic, always think that technological innovation, institutional change and the accumulation of experience can make the economy out of the financial crisis, which is not the same"事实上，正如本书所指出的，在1929-1933年大萧条、1980年代拉美债务危机、1990年代东亚金融危机以及2007年至今的全球金融危机爆发前，市场上总是充满了“这次不一样”的乐观论调。

然而无情的事实是，没过多久，上述乐观论调总是被金融危机又一次无情地碾碎。

正如作者所指出的，“技术在变，人的身高在变，时尚也在变，但政府和投资者自我欺骗的能力并没有变”。

As a matter of fact, as the book points out, the market is always full of "this is not the same" optimism in the 1929-1933 years of the great depression, the Latin American debt crisis in 1980, the East Asian financial crisis in the 1990's, and the global financial crisis that began in 2007. However, the fact is cruel, not long after, the optimistic view is the financial crisis once again mercilessly crushed. As the author points out, "the technology is changing, people's height is changingand the fashion is changing, but the government and investors" self deception is not changed ".本书作者在搜集、整理、归纳了近800年全球不同国家与金融危机相关的各类数据的基础上，向我们雄辩地展示出，尽管危机的类型不断转换，但金融危机总是会周期性地爆发。

即使对发达国家而言，也不能轻易作出它们已经远离金融危机困扰的判断。

2007年爆发的全球金融危机已经充分证实了这一点。

The author of this book is on the basis of collecting, sorting out and summing up various kinds of data related to the global financial crisis in 800 years. Even for developed countries, it is not easy to make them out of the financial crisis. The 2007 outbreak of the global financial crisis has fully confirmed this point.作者还指出，在金融危机的预测方面，卢卡斯批判可能是失效的。

如果我们能够充分注重历史经验，我们或许能够成功地预警甚至避免危机的爆发。

但迄今为止的现实是，我们从未给予历史其应得的尊重。

If we can give full attention to the historical experience, we might be able to successfully avoid the outbreak of the crisis. But so far, the reality is that we have never given the respect that history deserves.以下我将重点谈谈阅读本书给我的几点最重要启发。

第一，如果把金属货币减值与恶性通货膨胀也视为国内债务违约的话，那么债务违约（包括外债与内债违约）就是与主权国家自诞生起如影随形的事实。

债务累累的政府总是有通过各种手段来实施事实违约的激励，最终是否决定违约以及如何违约，则取决于成本收益计算以及与债权人的博弈。

对债权人而言，千万不要相信高负债率的债务人会有良好的意愿以及能力足额及时地还本付息。

这无疑让我想到了目前的美国与中国。

目前美国政府债务已经超过GDP的90%，家庭、企业与政府债务之和已经超过GDP的350%。

作为美国的最大外国债权人，如果中国政府期望美国政府会老老实实地还本付息，无疑是太天真了。

诚然，美国政府不会发生名义外债违约，但通过开动印钞机、制造通货膨胀来稀释债务的激励实在太强大了，我实在想不出美国政府为什么不这样做。

既然如此，持有美国国债已经高达1.2万亿美元的中国政府，还有什么理由不收手呢？当然，如果外汇储备继续增长，央行就不得不考虑在新增组合中购买美国国债。

最重要的是通过人民币升值以及国内要素价格调整来从源头上避免外汇储备继续累积。

First, if the metal currency depreciation and hyperinflationalso regarded as domestic debt default, then the default (including foreign and domestic debt default is and national sovereignty sincethe birth of haunting facts. Debt laden governments always have a variety of means to implement the fact that the incentive to default, and ultimately determine whether the default and how to default, it depends on the cost of revenue and the game with the creditors. Tothe creditors, do not believe that the high debt ratio of the debtor will have a good will and ability to repay the debt in full and timely. This will undoubtedly make me think of the current U.S. and china. Atpresent, the U.S. government debt has more than 90% of GDP, family, business and government debt and has more than 350% of GDP. As America's biggest foreign creditor, if the Chinese government is expected to the U.S. government will honestly servicing is undoubtedly too naive. Indeed, the U.S. government will not occur nominal debt defaults, but by starting HKNPL machine, creating inflation to dilute the incentives for debt is too strong, I really can not think of why the US government not to do so. In that case, there is no reason not to take the hand of the Chinese government, which is already high in US Treasuries. Of course, if the foreign exchange reserves continue to grow, the central bank will have to consider buying U.S. Treasury bonds in the new combination. The most important is to avoid the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves through the appreciation of the renminbi and the adjustment of the domestic factor prices.第二，本书作者发现一个奇怪的现象，即尽管某些新兴市场国家外债占GDP的比重较低（例如低于30%），该国还是会爆发债务危机并违约。