互联网金融对传统金融业的影响外文文献翻译

文献出处:Ramsey; Labored. Internet Finance's Impact on Traditional Finance [J]. The Journal of International Finance, 2014, 16(2): 31-49.

原文

Internet Finance's Impact on Traditional Finance

Ramsey; Labored.

Abstract

As the advances in modern information and Internet technology, especially the develop of cloud computing, big data, mobile Internet, search engines and social networks, profoundly change, even subvert many traditional industries, and the financial industry is no exception. In recent years, financial industry has become the most far-reaching area influenced by Internet, after commercial distribution and the media. Many Internet-based financial service models have emerged, and have had a profound and huge impact on traditional financial industries. "Internet-Finance" has win the focus of public attention.

Internet-Finance is low cost, high efficiency, and pays more attention to the user experience, and these features enable it to fully meet the special needs of traditional "long tail financial market", to flexibly provide more convenient and efficient financial services and diversified financial products, to greatly expand the scope and depth of financial services, to shorten the distance between people space and time, and to establish a new financial environment, which effectively integrate and take use of fragmented time, information, capital and other scattered resources, then add up to form a scale, and grow a new profit point for various financial institutions. Moreover, with the continuous penetration and integration in traditional financial field, Internet-Finance will bring new challenges, but also opportunities to the traditional. It contribute to the transformation of the traditional commercial banks, compensate for the lack of efficiency in funding process and information integration, and provide new distribution channels for securities, insurance, funds and other financial products. For many SMEs, Internet-Finance extend their financing channels, reduce their financing threshold, and improve their efficiency in using funds. However, the cross-industry nature of the Internet Finance determines its risk factors are more complex, sensitive

and varied, and therefore we must properly handle the relationship between innovative development and market regulation, industry self-regulation.

Key Words：Internet Finance; Commercial Banks; Effects; Regulatory

1 Introduction

The continuous development of Internet technology, cloud computing, big data, a growing number of Internet applications such as social networks for the business development of traditional industry provides a strong support, the level of penetration of the Internet on the traditional industry. The end of the 20th century, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, who declared, "the traditional commercial bank will become the new century dinosaur". Nowadays, with the development of the Internet electronic information technology, we really felt this trend, mobile payment, electronic bank already occupies the important position in our daily life.

Due to the concept of the Internet financial almost entirely from the business practices, therefore the present study focused on the discussion. Internet financial specific mode, and the influence of traditional financial industry analysis and counter measures are lack of systemic research. Internet has always been a key battleground in risk investment, and financial industry is the thinking mode of innovative experimental various business models emerge in endlessly, so it is difficult to use a fixed set of thinking to classification and definition. The mutual penetration and integration of Internet and financial, is a reflection of technical development and market rules requirements, is an irreversible trend. The Internet bring traditional financial is not only a low cost and high efficiency, more is a kind of innovative thinking mode and unremitting pursuit of the user experience. The traditional financial industry to actively respond to. Internet financial, for such a vast blue ocean enough to change the world, it is very worthy of attention to straighten out its development, from the existing business model to its development prospects.

"Internet financial" belongs to the latest formats form, discusses the Internet financial research of literature, but the lack of systemic and more practical. So this article according to the characteristics of the Internet industry practical stronger, the several business models on the market for summary analysis, and the traditional

financial industry how to actively respond to the Internet wave of financial analysis and Suggestions are given, with strong practical significance.

2 Internet financial background

Internet financial platform based on Internet resources, on the basis of the big data and cloud computing new financial model. Internet finance with the help of the Internet technology, mobile communication technology to realize financing, payment and information intermediary business, is a traditional industry and modern information technology represented by the Internet, mobile payment, cloud computing, data mining, search engines and social networks, etc.) Produced by the combination of emerging field. Whether financial or the Internet, the Internet is just the difference on the strategic, there is no strict definition of distinction. As the financial and the mutual penetration and integration of the Internet, the Internet financial can refer all through the Internet technology to realize the financing behavior. Internet financial is the Internet and the traditional financial product of mutual infiltration and fusion, the new financial model has a profound background. The emergence of the Internet financial is a craving for cost reduction is the result of the financial subject, is also inseparable from the rapid development of modern information technology to provide technical support.

2.1 Demands factors

Traditional financial markets there are serious information asymmetry, greatly improve the transaction risk. Exhibition gradually changed people's spending habits, more and more high to the requirement of service efficiency and experience; In addition, rising operating costs, to stimulate the financial main body's thirst for financial innovation and reform; This pulled by demand factors, become the Internet financial produce powerful inner driving force.

2.2 Supply driving factor

Data mining, cloud computing and Internet search engines, such as the development of technology, financial and institutional technology platform. Innovation, enterprise profit-driven mixed management, etc., for the transformation of traditional industry and Internet companies offered financial sector penetration may,

for the birth and development of the Internet financial external technical support, become a kind of externalization of constitution. In the Internet "openness, equality, cooperation, share" platform, third-party financing and payment, online investment finance, credit evaluation model, not only makes the traditional pattern of financial markets will be great changes have taken place, and modern information technology is more easily to serve various financial entities. For the traditional financial institutions, especially in the banking, securities and insurance institutions, more opportunities than the crisis, development is better than a challenge.

3 Internet financial constitute the main body

3.1 Capital providers

Between Internet financial comprehensive, its capital providers include not only the traditional financial institutions, including penetrating into the Internet. In terms of the current market structure, the traditional financial sector mainly include commercial Banks, securities, insurance, fund and small loan companies, mainly includes the part of the Internet companies and emerging subject, such as the amazon, and some channels on Internet for the company. These companies is not only the providers of capital market, but also too many traditional so-called "low net worth clients" suppliers of funds into the market. In operation form, the former mainly through the Internet, to the traditional business externalization, the latter mainly through Internet channels to penetrate business, both externalization and penetration, both through the Internet channel to achieve the financial business innovation and reform.

3.2 Capital demanders

Internet financial mode of capital demanders although there is no breakthrough in the traditional government, enterprise and individual, but on the benefit has greatly changed. In the rise and development of the Internet financial, especially Internet companies to enter the threshold of made in the traditional financial institutions, relatively weak groups and individual demanders, have a more convenient and efficient access to capital. As a result, the Internet brought about by the universality and inclusive financial better than the previous traditional financial pattern.

3.3 Intermediaries

Internet financial rely on efficient and convenient information technology, greatly reduces the financial markets is the wrong information. Docking directly through Internet, according to both parties, transaction cost is greatly reduced, so the Internet finance main body for the dependence of the intermediary institutions decreased significantly, but does not mean that the Internet financial markets, there is no intermediary institutions. In terms of the development of the Internet financial situation at present stage, the third-party payment platform plays an intermediary role in this field, not only ACTS as a financial settlement platform, but also to the capital supply and demand of the integration of upstream and downstream link multi-faceted, in meet the funds to pay at the same time, have the effect of capital allocation. Especially in the field of electronic commerce, this function is more obvious.

3.4 Large financial data

Big financial data collection refers to the vast amounts of unstructured data, through the study of the depth of its mining and real-time analysis, grasp the customer's trading information, consumption habits and consumption information, and predict customer behavior and make the relevant financial institutions in the product design, precise marketing and greatly improve the efficiency of risk management, etc. Financial services platform based on the large data mainly refers to with vast trading data of the electronic commerce enterprise's financial services. The key to the big data from a large number of chaotic ability to rapidly gaining valuable information in the data, or from big data assets liquidation ability quickly. Big data information processing, therefore, often together with cloud computing.

4 Global economic issues

FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from

Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.

No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmark ets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.

Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help.

Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.

Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.

The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.

In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely t hanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.

Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.

One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.

The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices d ecline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds

and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.

Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.

This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.

Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.

The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to

weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.

There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Feder al Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.

5 Conclusions

Internet financial model can produce not only huge social benefit, lower transaction costs, provide higher than the existing direct and indirect financing efficiency of the allocation of resources, to provide power for economic development, will also be able to use the Internet and its related software technology played down the traditional finance specialized division of labor, makes the financial participants more mass popularization, risk pricing term matching complex transactions, tend to be simple. Because of the Internet financial involved in the field are mainly concentrated in the field of traditional financial institutions to the current development is not thorough, namely traditional financial "long tail" market, can complement with the original traditional financial business situation, so in the short term the Internet finance from the Angle of the size of the market will not make a big impact to the traditional financial institutions, but the Internet financial business model, innovative

ideas, and its apparent high efficiency for the traditional financial institutions brought greater impact on the concept, also led to the traditional financial institutions to further accelerate the mutual penetration and integration with the Internet.

译文

互联网金融对传统金融的影响

作者：罗萨米;拉夫雷特

摘要

网络的发展，深刻地改变甚至颠覆了许多传统行业，金融业也不例外。近年来，金融业成为继商业分销、传媒之后受互联网影响最为深远的领域，许多基于互联网的金融服务模式应运而生，并对传统金融业产生了深刻的影响和巨大的冲击。“互联网金融”成为社会各界关注的焦点。

互联网金融低成本、高效率、关注用户体验，这些特点使其能够充分满足传统金融“长尾市场”的特殊需求，灵活提供更为便捷、高效的金融服务和多样化的金融产品，大大拓展了金融服务的广度和深度，缩短了人们在时空上的距离，建立了一种全新的金融生态环境；可以有效整合、利用零散的时间、信息、资金等碎片资源，积少成多，形成规模效益，成为各类金融服务机构新的利润增长点。此外，随着互联网金融的不断渗透和融合，将给传统金融行业带来新的挑战和机遇。互联网金融可以促进传统银行业的转型，弥补传统银行在资金处理效率、信息整合等方面的不足；为证券、保险、基金、理财产品的销售与推广提供新渠道。对于很多中小企业来说，互联网金融拓展了它们的融资渠道，大大降低了融资门槛，提高了资金的使用效率。但是，互联网金融的跨行业性决定了它的风险因素更为复杂、敏感、多变，因此要处理好创新发展与市场监管、行业自律的关系。关键词：互联网金融；商业银行；影响；监管

1 引言

互联网技术的不断发展，云计算、大数据、社交网络等越来越多的互联网应用为传统行业的业务发展提供了有力支持，互联网对传统行业的渗透程度不断加深。20世纪末，微软总裁比尔盖茨就曾断言，“传统商业银行会成为新世纪的恐龙”。如今，随着互联网电子信息技术的发展，我们真切地感受到了这种趋势，移动支付、电子银行早已在我们的日常生活中占据了重要地位。

由于互联网金融的概念几乎完全来自于商业实践，因此目前的研究多集中在探讨互联网金融的具体模式上，而对传统金融行业的影响力分析和应对措施则缺乏系统性研究。互联网与金融行业一向是风险投资的主战场，是思维模式的创新实验田，因此各种商业模式层出不穷，很难用一套固定的思维去分类、界定。互联网与金融的相互渗透与融合，是技术发展与市场规律要求的体现，是不可逆转的趋势。互联网带给传统金融的不仅仅是低成本与高效率，更在于一种创新的思维模式和对用户体验的不懈追求。而传统金融行业要去积极应对。互联网金融，对于这样一片足以改变世界的巨大蓝海，是非常值得投入精力去理顺其发展脉络，去从现有的商业模式中发现其发展前景的。

“互联网金融”属于最新的业态形式，对互联网金融进行探讨研究的文献不少，但多缺乏系统性与实践性。因此本文根据互联网行业实践性较强的特点，对市场上的几种业务模式进行概括分析，并就传统金融行业如何积极应对互联网金融浪潮给出了分析与建议，具有较强的现实意义。

2互联网金融的产生背景

互联网金融是以互联网为资源平台，以大数据和云计算为基础的新金融模式。互联网金融借助于互联网技术、移动通信技术来实现资金融通、支付和信息中介等业务，是传统金融业与以互联网为代表的现代信息科技（移动支付、云计算、数据挖掘、搜索引擎和社交网络等）相结合产生的新兴领域。不管是互联网金融还是金融互联网，只是战略上的区别，并没有严格定义区分。随着金融与互联网的相互渗透与相互融合，互联网金融可以泛指一切通过互联网技术来实现资金融通的行为。互联网金融是互联网与传统金融相互渗透和融合的产物，这种崭新的金融模式有着深刻的产生背景。互联网金融的出现既源于金融主体对于降低成本的强烈渴求，（百度文库所有，完整译文请到百度文库）

也离不开现代信息技术迅猛发展提供的技术支撑。

2.1 需求型拉动因素

传统金融市场存在严重的信息不对称，极大的提高了交易风险；移动互联网的发展逐步改变了人们的金融消费习惯，对服务效率和体验的要求越来越高；此外，运营成本的不断上升，都刺激着金融主体对于金融创新与改革的渴求；这种由需求拉动的因素，成为互联网金融产生的强大内在推动力。

2.2 供给型推动因素

数据挖掘、云计算以及搜索引擎等技术的发展、金融与互联网机构的技术平台的革新、企业逐利性的混业经营等，为传统金融业的转型和互联网企业向金融领域渗透提供了可能，为互联网金融的产生和发展提供了外在的技术支撑，成为一种外化的拉动力。在互联网“开放、平等、协作、分享”的平台上，第三方融资与支付、在线投资理财、信用评审等模式的不断涌现，不仅使得传统的金融市场格局发生了巨大的变化，也使现代信息科技更加便捷地服务于各金融主体。对于传统金融机构，特别是银行、证券和保险机构而言，机遇大于危机，发展胜过挑战。

3互联网金融的构成主体

3.1 资金供给者

介于互联网金融的综合性，其资金供给者不仅包括传统的金融机构，也包括渗透进入的互联网企业。就目前的市场结构而言，传统金融机构主要有商业银行、证券、保险、基金和小额贷款公司，而新兴主体主要包括部分互联网企业，如亚马逊，还有一些以互联网为渠道的综合型公司。这些企业不仅是市场资金的供给者，更是将许多传统所谓的“低净值客户”纳入市场资金的供给方。在操作形式上，前者主要借助互联网将传统业务进行外化，后者主要通过互联网渠道将业务进行渗透，无论是外化还是渗透，二者都通过互联网渠道实现了金融业务的创新与改革。

3.2 资金需求者

互联网金融模式下的资金需求者虽然没有突破传统的政府、企业和个体的范畴，但在惠及范围上却有着很大程度的改变。互联网金融的兴起和发展，特别是互联网企业的进入使得被排挤在传统金融机构门槛之外的、相对弱势的组织和个体需求者，有了一个更加便捷和高效的资金获取渠道。因此，互联网金融所带来的普惠性和包容性更胜以往的传统金融模式。

3.3中介机构

互联网金融依靠高效、便捷的信息技术，极大降低了金融市场上存在的信息不对称，交易双方通过互联网直接对接，交易成本也大大降低，因此互联网金融主体对于中介机构的依赖性明显减弱，但并非意味着互联网金融市场就没有中介

机构。就现阶段互联网金融的发展状况而言，第三方支付平台扮演了该领域中介机构的角色，不仅充当资金结算的平台，更是对资金供需的上下游环节进行多方位的整合，在满足资金支付的同时，起到资金配置的作用。尤其是在电子商务领域，这一功能更加明显。

3.4 大数据金融

大数据金融是指集合海量非结构化数据，通过对其进行深度挖掘与实时分析，掌握客户的交易信息、消费信息和消费习惯等，进而准确预测客户行为，使相关金融机构在产品设计、精准营销和风险管理等方面的效率得到极大提高。基于大数据的金融服务平台主要指拥有海量交易数据的电子商务企业所开展的金融服务。大数据的关键是从大量无序的数据中快速攫取有价值信息的能力，或者是从大数据资产中快速变现的能力。因此，大数据的信息处理往往与云计算结合在一起。

4全球经济问题

过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。

不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。

新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。

有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。

众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。

在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。

幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。

至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。

比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，

这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。

需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。

信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。

在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。

其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。

受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活

的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。

5结论

互联网金融模式不仅能够产生巨大的社会效益，降低交易成本，提供比现有直接和间接融资更高的资源配置效率，为经济发展提供动力，还能够借助互联网及其相关软件技术淡化传统金融业的专业分工，使得金融参与者更加大众普通化，风险定价期限匹配等复杂交易也趋于简单化。由于互联网金融所涉足的领域主要集中在传统金融机构当前开发并不深入的领域，即传统金融的“长尾市场”，能够与原有的传统金融业务形成补充态势，所以短期内互联网金融从市场规模角度并不会对传统金融机构带来很大冲击，但是互联网金融的业务模式、创新思路以及其显现出来的高效率对于传统金融机构在理念上带来了较大的冲击，也带动了传统金融机构进一步加速与互联网的互相渗透与融合。