ch10[1]Investment Analysis
ch14[1]Investment Analysis
![ch14[1]Investment Analysis](https://img.taocdn.com/s3/m/2129677c5acfa1c7aa00cc6f.png)
Industry Performance
• Wide dispersion in rates of return in different industries
• Performance varies from year to year • Company performance varies within industries • Risks vary widely by industry but are fairly
stable over time
The Business Cycle and Industry Sectors
• Economic trends can and do affect industry performance
• By identifying and monitoring key assumptions and variables, we can monitor the economy and gauge the implications of new information on our economic outlook and industry analysis
• Is there consistency in the returns for individual industries over time? What do these results imply regarding industry analysis?
Chapter 14 Industry Analysis
Questions to be answered:
• Is there a difference between the returns for alternative industries during specific time periods? What is the implication of these results?cs – Lifestyles
ch10 回归分析

1. 模型线性性检验 检验 H0: 1 =0; H1: 1 0
yi yi
y yi - y
ei
yi - y
y=0+1x
xi 2 ˆ ) 2 (Y Y ) 2 ˆ (Yi Y ) (Yi Yi i x
i i i
记:
ST=Se+SR
构造统计量
S R /1 F 当H0为真时, F~F(1,n-2) Se /(n 2)
ch10 回归分析
回归分析的任务是研究变量之间的关系,建立变量 之间的经验公式,以便达到预测和控制的目的。 “回归”一词的由来 早在十九世纪,英国生物兼统计学家高尔顿在研究父 与子身高的遗传问题时,观察了1078对父子,用x表示 父亲的身高,y表示儿子的身高,将(x,y)标在直角坐标 中,发现这些点基本在一条直线附近,并求出了该直 线的方程(单位:英寸), y^=33.73+0.516x
§10.1 回归分析的基本概念
变量之间的关系 确定性关系(函数关系):V=IR,S=vt 不确定性关系(相关关系):身高与体重,收入与消费 一般地:设影响结果y的因素有x1,…,xp,假设它们 之间有线性相关关系
y 0 1 x1 ... p x p
yi 0 1 xi 1 ... p xip i i ~ N (0, 2 )且相互独立
对给定显著性水平 , 检验拒绝域为
W F F (1, n 2)
这表明: 1.父亲的身高增加1单位,儿子的身高平均增加0.516单位 2.高个子父辈的儿子们的平均高度要低于父辈的平均高度, 如x=80,y^=75.01 3.低个子父辈的儿子们的平均高度要高于父辈的平均高度, 如x=60,y^=64.69 这便是子代的平均高度有向中心“回归”的意思。使得一 段时间内人的身高相对稳定
CH10 确定最小方差资产组合的方法和单一指数模型(证券投资学,南京审计学院 张维)解析

N
MYP E D C
F
A
Y
xA
12
13
14
用拉格朗日乘数法:以两个组 合为例
x x 2 x A x B cov(rA , rB )
2 p 2 A 2 A 2 B 2 B
s.t. 1, E (rp ) x A E (rA ) x B E (rB ) 2, x A x B 1
17
单一指数模型的假设
1.基本假设。单一指数模型的基本假设就是, 影响资产价格波动的主要和共同的因素是市场 总体价格水平的变动 2.对影响收益波动因素的假设。单一指数模型 假设影响资产收益率波动的因素有两类:宏观 因素和微观因素。宏观因素影响市场全局,如 利率的调整、通货膨胀的变动等,会引起市场 价格水平总体的涨落,进而带动绝大部分资产 的价格变动,属于系统风险。微观因素被假定 只对个别企业有影响,称为非系统风险。 3.对误差项A的假设 E(A)=0
(2)资产方差的计算
2 2
E{( A Arm A ) [ A A E (rm )]}
19
2 A
2 2 2 A m A
20
计算资产及资产组合的预期收益 和风险
(3)资产之间协方差的计算。
2 cov(rA , rB ) A B m
i i i 1
E (rp ) A p p E ( rm )
22
计算资产及资产组合的预期收益 和风险
(5)资产组合的方差。
2 2 2 2 p p m p
23
Supplemental Reading
Indexed Investing: A Prosaic Way to Beat the Average Investor
chp10 现代证券投资理论

有效市场假说 证券组合理论 资本资产定价模型 因素模型与套利定价理论
1
第一节 有效市场假说
有效市场的含义 有效市场的类型
2
一、有效市场的含义
有效市场指证券价格充分反映所 有可获得信息的市场。
价格反映信息 证券价格围绕证券内在价值波动 证券价格随机游走 零超额收益
i=1 m
32
二、套利定价理论
Arbitrage Pricing Theory
1978年由Steven Rose创立 APT放松了CAPM的假定: 投资者无须为风险规避者 不需要一个有效的市场投资组合 投资者无须有相同的预期
33
套利定价理论认为由于 市场套利行为的存在, 两种性质相同的商品价 格应趋于一致,最终将 导致市场均衡的出现
30
单一因素模型
各种证券收益的变动都取决于某 一共同的因素。
ri = ai+biF+ei
ai--表示没有因素F的期望收益 F--表示因素的价值 bi--表示证券 i对因素F 的灵敏度
ei --表示随机误差项
31
多因素模型
ri = ai+bi1F1+ bi2F2 + …+binFN+ ei rp= ∑ ri Xi
rp = rf + [ (rm - rf) /σm] σp
rp——证券投资组合的预期收益率 rf——无风险利率 rm——证券有效组合的平均预期收益率
σm——市场证券投资的平均风险
20
rp
M
rm rf
σm
σp
21
资本市场线的特性
资本市场线是从rf处引出一条直线与马 科维茨模型的有效边界相切,切点M称为 市场证券组合,是所有有效组合与无风 险资产的最佳组合点。
CH10-010

第十章兼并与收购Chapter Ten Merger and Acquisition公司治理结构内部控制外部控制•董事会•大股东•激励•收购•兼并•代理表决权—董事会规模—董事会构成—董事会会议频率—董事成员持股—总经理辞退—收购(Acquisition)—兼并(Merger )—代理表决权(proxy right )—收购(Acquisition )—收购(Acquisition )—兼并(Merger )—兼并(Merger )—代理表决权(proxy right )—代理表决权(proxy right )100200300400500196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996实际支付额净资产:50港币/每股收购价格:105港币/每股收购股数:九龙仓总价值:98亿港币Chapter 10 Merger and Acquisition 和记黄浦善意收购战收购价格:7.1港币/每股收购股数:9000万股净资产:14.5港币/每股汇丰银行贷款:2亿港币和记黄浦总价值:10亿港币置地每股净资产:28港币每股市场价格:94港币面值:5港币牛奶每股净资产:80港币每股市场价格:135港币面值:7.5港币2换11986年Dr. Pepper可口可乐百事可乐七喜-34.4亿元A & WH&HDLJ CVC七喜2.4亿美元A&WDr.Pepper七喜收购费用:2.4亿美元法律、会计费用:0.2亿美元银行抵押贷款过桥贷款发行股票亿美元1.55亿美元0.14亿美元0.17亿美元0.48亿美元过桥贷款1.4亿美元银行抵押贷款0.8亿美元发行股票0.45亿13亿美元49%6.37亿美元普坦士-巴奇公司DWACC CF CV ttt−+=∑)(1现金流量年限债务贴现率反收购立法:公司章程修正案:其他:。
投资学精要英文版第十版课程设计 (2)

Investment Essentials Course Design for the TenthEdition in EnglishCourse OverviewThe Investment Essentials course is designed to provide studentswith an introduction to the field of investments. The course will cover a range of topics, including the characteristics and analysis of investments, risk and return, portfolio theory and diversification, and valuation. The course is structured to provide students with the skills necessary for making informed investment decisions, both at the individual and institutional levels.Learning ObjectivesBy the end of the course, students will be able to:•Understand the characteristics and analysis of various types of investments, including stocks, bonds, and alternativeinvestments.•Expln the concepts of risk and return, and how these concepts are used to analyze investments.•Understand portfolio theory and diversification, and how these concepts can be used to build a portfolio that meetsindividual investment objectives.•Apply valuation techniques to analyze stocks and bonds, and to make investment decisions.Course OutlineWeek 1: Introduction to Investments•What are investments?•Characteristics of investments•Investment objectivesWeek 2: The Stock Market•Stocks and stock markets•Risk and return of stocks•Stock valuationWeek 3: Bonds•Bond characteristics•Risk and return of bonds•Bond valuationWeek 4: Alternative Investments•Hedge funds•Private equity•Real estateWeek 5: Risk and Return•Portfolio returns•Measuring risk•DiversificationWeek 6: Portfolio Theory•Portfolio construction•Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)•Efficient frontierWeek 7: Active vs. Passive Investing•Active management•Passive management•Index fundsWeek 8: Behavioral Finance•The psychology of investing•Behavioral biases•Investor educationWeek 9: Hedge Funds, Private Equity, and Venture Capital •Hedge funds•Private equity•Venture capitalWeek 10: Investment Strategies•Growth investing•Value investing•Income investingAssessmentAssessment for the course will be based on the following: •Midterm exam (25%)•Final exam (35%)•Investment analysis project (30%)•Class participation (10%)The investment analysis project will require students to analyze a particular investment and make a recommendation based on their analysis. The project will be presented to the class and will be evaluated based on the quality of the analysis and the effectiveness of the recommendation.In conclusion, the Investment Essentials course is designed to provide students with a broad understanding of investments and investment strategies. The course will cover a range of topics,including stocks, bonds, alternative investments, portfolio theory, and behavioral finance. Students will be assessed through exams, a project, and class participation. By the end of the course, students will be capable of making informed investment decisions and building investment portfolios that meet their objectives.。
ch22[1]Investment Analysis
![ch22[1]Investment Analysis](https://img.taocdn.com/s3/m/bb1910f59e3143323968936e.png)
Chapter 22 Forward and Futures Contracts
• What is a hedge ratio and how should it be calculated? • What economic functions do the forward and futures markets serve? • How are forward and futures contracts valued after origination? • What is the relationship between futures contract prices and the current and expected spot price for the underlying commodity or security?
Questions to be answered: • What are the differences in the way forward and futures contracts are structured and traded? • How are the margin accounts on a futures contract adjusted for daily changes in market conditions? • How can an investor use forward and futures contracts to hedge an existing risk exposure?
Financial Forwards and Futures: Applications and Strategies
• Originally, forward and futures markets were organized largely around trading agricultural commodities • Recent developments in this area have involved the use of financial securities as the asset underlying the contract • Interest rate forwards and futures were among the first derivatives to specify a financial security as the underlying asset – forward rate agreements – interest rate swaps
ch19[1]Investment Analysis
![ch19[1]Investment Analysis](https://img.taocdn.com/s3/m/c675b31514791711cc79176f.png)
Promised Yield to Maturity
• Widely used bond yield figure • Assumes
– Investor holds bond to maturity – All the bond’s cash flow is reinvested at the computed yield to maturity
• What are effective duration and effective convexity and when are they useful? • What is empirical duration and how is it used with common stocks and other assets? • What are the static yield spread and the option-adjusted spread?
m
t
Promised Yield to Call Present-Value Method
Pm
t 1
2 nc
Ci / 2 (1 i )
t
Pc (1 i )
The Yield Model
The expected yield on the bond may be computed from the market price
Pm
t 1
Where:
2n
Ci 2 (1 i 2)
t
Pp (1 i 2)
2n
i = the discount rate that will discount the cash flows to equal the current market price of the bond
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性,平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益,请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间:9:00-18:30)。
Comparing to The Aggregate Economy
• Most firms are influenced by economic expansions and contractions in the business cycle • Analysis helps you estimate the future performance of the firm during subsequent business cycles
Major Financial Statements
• Corporate shareholder annual and quarterly reports must include
Major Financial Statements
• Corporate shareholder annual and quarterly reports must include
Major Financial Statements
• Corporate shareholder annual and quarterly reports must include
– Balance sheet – Income statement – Statement of cash flows
Alternative Measures of Cash Flow
• Cash flow from operations
– Traditional cash flow equals net income plus depreciation expense and deferred taxes – Also adjust for changes in operating assets and liabilities that use or provide cash
• Reports filed with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
– 10-K and 10-Q
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP)
• Formulated by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) • Provides some choices of accounting principles • Financial statements footnotes must disclose which accounting principles are used by the firm
Chapter 10 Analysis of Financial Statements
• What are the major categories for financial ratios and what questions are answered by the ratios in these categories? • What specific ratios help determine a firm’s internal liquidity, operating performance, risk profile, growth potential, and external liquidity? • How can the DuPont analysis help evaluate a firm’s return on equity over time?
Chapter 10 Analysis of Financial Statements
• What are some of the major differences between U.S. and non-U.S. financial statements and how do these differences affect the financial ratios? • What is a “quality” balance sheet or income statement? • Why is financial statement analysis done if markets are efficient and forward-looking?
Questions to be answered: • What are the major financial statements provided by firms and what specific information does each of them contain? • Why do we use financial ratios to examine the performance of a firm and why is it important to examine performance relative to the economy and a firm’s industry?
Comparing to A Firm’s Industry
• Most popular comparison • Industries affect the firms within them differently, but the relationship is always significant • The industry effect is strongest for industries with homogenous products • Examine the industry’s performance relative to aggregate economic activity
– Balance sheet
Major Financial Statements
• Corporate shareholder annual and quarterly reports must include
– Balance sheet – Income statement
Major Financial Statements
Chapter 10 Analysis of Financial Statements
• What major financial ratios help analysts in the following areas: stock valuation, estimating and evaluating systematic risk, predicting the credit ratings on bonds, and predicting bankruptcy?
Statement of Cash Flows
• Integrates the information on the balance sheet and income statement • Shows the effects on the firm’s cash flow of income flows and changes in various items on the balance sheet
• Ratios are more informative that raw numbers • Ratios provide meaningful relationships between individual values in the financial statements
Importance of Relative Financial Ratios
Purpose of Financial Statement Analysis
• Evaluate management performance in three areas:
– Profitability – Efficiency – Risk
Analysis of Financial Ratios
• Corporate shareholder annual and quarterly reports must include
– Balance sheet – Income statement – Statement of cash flows
Major Financial Statements
Lecture Presentation Software
to accompany
Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management
Seventh Edition by
Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown
Chapter 10
Chapter 10 Analysis of Financial Statements
Statement of Cash Flows
It has three sectiห้องสมุดไป่ตู้ns:
Cash Flow from Operating Activities – the sources and uses of cash that arise from the normal operations of a firm Cash Flow from Investing activities – change in gross plant and equipment plus the change in the investment account Cash Flow from Financing activities– financing sources minus financing uses
Balance Sheet
• Shows resources (assets) of the firm and how it has financed these resources • Indicates current and fixed assets available at a point in time • Financing is indicated by its mixture of current liabilities, long-term liabilities, and owners’ equity