美国制冷空调节能产品市场转化机制与趋势(英文版)(pdf 6页)

Market Transformation Mechanism and Development Trend of High-Efficiency AirConditioner and Heat-pump Water Heater in USASteven Nadel, Executive Director American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy June 2010McKinsey Global’s Analysis of Carbon Reduction PotentialRange of Levelized Costs (cents per kWh)Levelized Utility Cost of Electricity Resources16 Note: The green bars represent the lower end while the blue bars reflect the upper end of costs.141210864 average = 2.5¢ ---------------20Energy EfficiencyWindBiomassNatural Gas CombinedCyclePulverized CoalNuclearCoal IGCCSources: ACEEE 2009 for EE, Lazard 2008 for othersMarket Transformation“[a strategic effort] by utility and other organizations to intervene in the market, causing beneficial, lasting changes in the structure or function of the market…, leading to increases in the adoption of energy-efficient products, services and/or practices” (Schlegel et al. 1997)Market Transformation Initiatives• Designed to understand and address market barriers• Employ multiple coordinated activities • Generally multiple organisations • Activities evolve as the marketdevelopment of a measure progresses (evaluations key) • Include transition plan or exit strategyDiffusion CurveM arket ShareCodes & StandardsUtility Rebates Labeling Education FinancingTesting & Rating, C om m ercializationIncentives, Bulk ProcurementR&DTim eMarket Transformation for High Efficiency Clothes Washers in New EnglandBulk Procurement•“Golden Carrot” refrigerator program• $30 million prize for most efficient massproduced refrigerator• Provided by group of utilities • Incentive paid per refrigerator sold•“L Prize”• $10 million prize for a screw-in LED meeting performance specifications• Paid by federal governmentIncentives•Consortium for Energy Efficiency• Utilities and states develop common qualifying levels for incentives• Commonly several tiers • Upper tiers often for equipment not yetmass-produced•Federal tax incentives for advanced energy-saving equipmentConsortium for Energy Efficiency Residential AC and HP SpecificationsFederal Tax Incentives•Currently 30% of cost up to $1500 •Eligible equipment includes:• Central AC at least SEER 15 • Furnace with AFUE of 95% • Heat pump electric water heater • Gas water heater with EF > 0.80U.S. Electric and Gas Utility Budgets for Energy Efficiency & Load ManagementSource: Consortium for Energy EfficiencyEnergy Star• EPA/DOE program • Typically recognizes most efficient 25-35% of equipment • Starting to develop a higher tier(“superstar”?) to recognize the top 510% • Periodically updated • Now used for ~50 productsAppliance Standards in the U.S.NAECA 1987EPAct 1992EPAct 2005EISA 2007Refrigerator-freezers Freezers Room air conditioners Central AC & heat pumps Furnaces & boilers Water heaters Clothes washers Clothes dryers Dishwashers Ranges & ovens Direct-fired space heaters Pool heaters Fluorescent lamp ballastsFluorescent lamps Incandescent reflector lamps Electric motors (1-200 hp) Commercial AC & HP Comm'l furnaces/boilers Comm'l water heaters Showerheads Faucet aerators Toilets Small electric motors*Ceiling fan light kits Dehumidifiers Compact fluorescent lamps Torchiere lighting fixtures Large comm'l AC & HP Comm'l clothes washers Distribution transformers Exit signs Comm'l ice makers Comm'l refrigerators/freezers Mercury vapor lamp ballasts Traffic signals Pre-rinse spray valves Comm'l unit heaters Battery chargers* Large comm'l refrigerationIncandescent lamps Additional motors (e.g. large) Walk-in coolers and freezers Metal halide lighting fixtures External power supplies Furnace fans*ACES/ACELA 2010 (pending)Portable lighting fixtures Outdoor lighting fixtures Commercial furnaces Drinking water dispensers Portable electric spas Hot food holding cabinets* DOE rulemakings. Only include rulemakings that are underway or completed.Impact of U.S. Refrigerator Efficiency StandardsMaybe 25% savings with next revisionBuilding Codes for New Construction•It is much less expensive to build new buildings to be efficient than to build inefficiently and have to improve later •Building codes can mandate that efficiency features be incorporated •Both residential and commercial •Can require:• Insulation, efficient windows • Efficient lighting, heating, cooling, waterheating and ventilationCommercial Building Codes in U.S. (~% savings relative to prior code)30% 25% 20% 15% 10%5% 0%1989199920042010 Long-termTypical U.S. Residential AirConditioners and Water HeatersAverage Efficiency of U.S. Residential Central Air ConditionersProposed New U.S. AC Standards (take effect 2015)AC-HP-Furnace Agreement MapSEER 13WAOR IDSEER 14 + EERCANVUTSouthwest AZAlaska HDD ≥ 5000} HawaiiPuerto Rico U.S. TerritoriesHDD < 5000MTNDSD WYNorth-HDD ≥5000NECO KSMN IA MOWI ILMNYIPAOH INWVKYVATNNCOKNMSoAuRth-HDD < 5000 SCMS ALGATXLAM EVT NHMARI CT NJ DEMDFLSEER 14U.S. Residential AC Trends•SEER 15 becoming more common due to federal tax incentives •New minimum efficiency standard will become SEER 14 in the south •Interest in both SEER (kWh) and EER (kW) •Interest in “demand response” (powering down or cycling AC on peak days) •Expect evolution to variable speed equipment (high SEER) with built-in DR capabilities •Some discussion of post-HFC refrigerants• Hopefully will use TIWI principleEnergy Factor (EF) Energy Factor (EF)Types of Water Heaters in U.S.Standard StorageCondensing Heat PumpTankless SolarU.S. Electric Water Heater Efficiency Standards2.521.510.50 Historic1990200420152015 (> 55 gals)U.S. Gas Water Heater Efficiency Standards0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.10 Historic1990200420152015 (> 55 gals)U.S. Heat Pump Water Heater History•High promise – 50%+ savings relative to electric water heaters •In 1980’s and 1990’s, multiple small manufacturers produced products• High failure rates due to engineering and production problems•In 2009-2010, three major manufacturers introduced new products• $2000+ installed•Federal tax incentives, utility incentives, federal standards for >55 gal. as of 2015Heat Pump Water HeatersRheemAO SmithGETankless Water Heaters• Rated efficiencies 80%+ for gas• Really ~74% if use a typical draw pattern• $2000+ installed due to need to up-size gas pipes within house• Becoming more popular due to small size, federal and utility incentives• Also electric tankless• Can reduce distribution losses • But electricity expensive and tankless has highcoincident peak loadsU.S. Water Heater Trends•Standard storage water heaters reaching maximum efficiency• But also power vent systems with .68+ EF•Tankless water heaters becoming more common •New heat pump and condensing water heaters will directly compete with these •DOE has signaled that new efficiency standards moving towards these advanced technologies• Lower operating costs, higher up-front costsConclusions• Energy efficiency a priority in the U.S. • Substantial interest in multi-facetedmarket transformation strategies • Efficiency of AC and water heaterssteadily improving, driven by combination of voluntary programs and standardsContact InformationSteven Nadel snadel@ 202-507-4000 。