2012-08-pr-mersen-half-year-results
NPR英语听力2012年08月合辑(文本+翻译)20120815

From NPR News in Washington, I'm Lakshmi Singh.American swimming phenom Michael Phelps has just reached a major milestone. He won the silver in the Men's 200-meter butterfly, which means he ties the record for most Olympic medals. In this race, South Africa won one gold. Check off another Olympic medal for USA, the Women's Gymnastics team is basking in gold. They clinched the Olympic title in London today for the first time since 1996. Their score was 183.5965 points ahead of Russia as you might imagine cheers and chants of USA rang out from the stands.There was also gold in the water for the US Women's team. Allison Schmitt won the women's 200-meter freestyle Olympic gold.New provisions of the health care law taking effect tomorrow will require insurance companies to give women access to a range of preventive health services without charge. NPR's Craig Windham reports the changes are expected to benefit an estimated 47 million women.Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius says medical issuance plans will now be required to cover 8 preventive services for women at no charge.Including domestic violence screenings, breast feeding counseling and supplies and a well woman visit where she can sit down and talk with her healthcare provider.Democratic Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa says the changes will especially help women who are having trouble making ends meet. Women such as his sisters, both of whom died of breast cancer.For them to go, to get a checkup would have cost money, a money that they couldn't afford at that time.Harkin says he hopes that now women will not put off getting checkups for preventive health care. Craig Windham, NPR News, Washington.House speaker John Boehner says House and Senate leaders have reached a deal to consider a six-month continuing resolution in September to keep the government operating into next year. The agreement would fund the government at levels called for by last summer's budget and debt pact between Boehner and President Obama.Consumer spending in the US has slowed to a crawl. NPR's Dave Mattingly reports spending was flat last month despite higher incomes.Consumer spending drives more than 2/3 of economic growth, but it stalled of late, unchanged in June after declining the month before. With Americans holding onto their money, economic growth remains weak, and employers are adding few jobs to payrolls. Scott Brown is chief economist at Raymond James Associates.We are seeing a sort of piece of job growth where we are growing enough to absorbthe increase in the working-age population. But we are really not making up much of the ground that was lost during the downturn.However, the Commerce Department says personal incomes rose 0.5% in June, the sharpest gain in three months. Dave Mattingly, NPR News, Washington.At last check on Wall Street, the Dow was down 34 points at 13,039. This is NPR News.In another sign of recovery in the housing sector home prices rose in May in all major US cities,signalling higher sales. The Standard & Poor's case-Shilelr home price index gain 0.9% exceeding economists' expectations.Despite the latest uptake in housing news, the White House says the sector is still far from where it should be. Spokesman Jay Carley told reporters today that struggling homeowners need housing rescue programs to help catch up on the mortgage payments.A think tank has offered its advice to the US Forest Service on the best way to fight the wildfires from the air. As Scott Graf of Boise State Public Radio tells us the Rand Corporation says it's now provided the government with the framework to upgrade its ageing and shrinking fleet.The report commission by the US Forest Service says so called Scooper aircraft are the most cost-effective way of adding aerial assets. The plane is using water from lakes and rivers, to then drop on nearby fires. The report says such aircraft can make more drops than air tankers that have to fly back and forth to airports to get new loads of retardant. The head of the Forest Service though, he is not in love with the advice. Tom Tidwell says he thinks the Rand Corporation used incorrect information to arrive that conclusion. Tidwell though, says he does agree with most of the report's other recommendations. The government's air tanker fleets have shrunk by about 80% since 2000 over safety concerns of planes born in the Cold War. For NPR News, I'm Scott Graf in Boise, Idaho.The Associated Press reports an army sergeant has been sentenced to 30 days in prison for his role in the alleged hazing and suicide of a fellow soldier. Sergeant Adam Holcomb was convicted yesterday by military jury in North Carolina.This is NPR News.这里是在华盛顿的NPR新闻,我是拉克希米·辛格。
NPR英语听力2012年08月合辑(文本+翻译)20120816

From NPR news in Washington, I'm Lakshmi Singh.来自华盛顿的NPR新闻,我是拉克希米·辛格。
The FBI is investigating today shooting of the headquaters of the family research council in Washington D.C. A man is in custody. NPR's Carry Johnson reports that case could be investgated as an example of domestic terrorism. A security guard has been taken into a hospital after he was wounded in the gun attack. Tony Perkins, president of the family research council, says his first concern is for the health and welfare of the guard. Metropolitan police chief C, head of the FBI office in D.C, said they recovered a weapon at the scene. It's been traced by the bureau of alcohol to back home.联邦调查局正在调查今天发生在华盛顿特区家庭研究理事会总部的枪击事件。
一名男子被拘留。
NPR凯利·约翰逊报道称这个案件将被作为国内恐怖主义的典例展开调查。
一名保安在遭枪攻击之后,受伤被带进一间医院接受治疗。
托尼·帕金斯,家庭研究理事会主席称,他的第一关心的是警卫的健康和福利。
高中英语冀教版选择性必修第二册Unit5GeographySection1ReadingforMea

一、完形填空文章大意:本文是一篇说明文,文章主要介绍供水的过程、水循环的过程以及在一些地区饮用水短缺的情况。
1. When you turn on the tap (水龙头) in your house, water comes out. This water has _________ a long way. This water comes from rain in the sky. The _________ that water arrives to the tap in your house is called the “water supply”.Most of the water on the earth is in the _________. This water has a lot of salt in it. We cannot drink this water. Salt water makes us ill. But when the sun shines, it _________ a part of the ocean. This water rises up to make clouds in the sky. The more water rises up, the heavier and larger the clouds become. The clouds will get so heavy and large that they will change colour from white to _________. The water will fall down into rivers and lakes _________ rain and travel back to the sea. This is called the “water cycle”. We use half of the rain water _________ falls over the earth.There are parts of the world where there is _________ fresh water. In the Arab countries, salt water can be made safe to drink. This is done by freezing or boiling it. The salt is left _________ and the clean water is then taken off. This process (过程) is very __________, but in some areas this is the only way to get clean drinking water. 1.A.pulled B.jumped C.rushed D.travelled2.A.way B.path C.method D.condition3.A.stream B.ocean C.river D.lake4.A.takes in B.gives off C.heats up D.cools down5.A.purple B.grey C.blue D.pink6.A.on B.with C.as D.in7.A.it B.that C.this D.what8.A.few B.much C.enough D.little9.A.behind B.alone C.forward D.off10.A.rapid B.cheap C.simple D.expensive二、阅读选择(阅读理解)文章大意:本文是说明文。
D o e s D i v i d e n d Po l i c y D r i v e E a rn i n g s股利分配盈余平滑20143AH

Accounting Horizons American Accounting Association Vol.28,No.3DOI:10.2308/acch-50764 2014pp.501–528Does Dividend Policy Drive EarningsSmoothing?Nan Liu and Reza EspahbodiSYNOPSIS:This paper examines the earnings-smoothing behavior of dividend-payingfirms.We show that dividend-paying firms engage in more earnings smoothing than non-payers through both real activities and accrual choices.More specifically,dividend-paying firms with positive(negative)pre-managed earnings changes engage in moredownward(upward)earnings management than non-payers.Additional tests suggestthat the results are driven by dividend-related incentives and not the differences in theeconomic characteristics of dividend-paying firms,are robust to alternative measures ofearnings management,and are not due to spurious correlation.We also show thatearnings smoothing,in part,explains the higher earnings persistence of dividend-payingfirms.These findings are consistent with a firm’s dividend policy having an incrementalimpact on earnings-smoothing behavior.Keywords:earnings smoothing;dividend policy;real earnings management;accruals management;earnings persistence.JEL Classifications:M41;G35.INTRODUCTIONS urvey evidence indicates that dividend-payingfirms have a strong desire to maintain their historical dividend policy and that they target both dividend level and dividend payout ratio (Lintner1956;Baker and Powell2000;Baker,Veit,and Powell2001;Brav,Graham, Harvey,and Michaely2005).The importance of maintaining historical dividend level and payout ratio is supported by empirical research that shows a large negative stock market reaction to unexpected dividend decreases or omission and the stock market’s perception of the valueNan Liu is an Assistant Professor at Indiana University and Reza Espahbodi is a Professor at Washburn University.We appreciate the helpful comments from Lawrence Brown,Hassan Espahbodi,Lixin Huang,Siva Nathan,and Arianna Pinello.Also appreciated are the helpful suggestions from the participants at a Georgia State University workshop and the2012American Accounting Association Annual Meeting.We are grateful for the suggestions and guidance from Paul Griffin(co-editor)and two anonymous reviewers.The remaining errors are ours.Submitted:April2012Accepted:March2014Published Online:March2014Corresponding author:Nan LiuEmail:liunan@501relevance of dividends (Aharony and Swary 1980;Healy and Palepu 1988;Ghosh and Woolridge 1989;Kallapur 1994;Grullon,Michaely,and Swaminathan 2002).When earnings change relative to the prior year,maintaining the dividend level leads to a change in the dividend payout ratio,while maintaining the payout ratio necessitates a change in the dividend level.‘‘Reducing variation in the change in earnings ’’(hereafter,earnings smoothing)can reduce the fluctuations in the dividend payout ratio and allow the firm to avoid changing its dividend level.We thus argue that earnings smoothing is more important for dividend-paying firms than for other firms,and that they engage in more downward (upward)earnings management than non-payers in years of positive (negative)pre-managed earnings change to maintain their dividend policy.To test our argument,we regress our measures of earnings management on a dichotomous variable coded as 1(0)for dividend-paying firms (non-payers),pre-managed earnings change,and their interaction.In our regressions,we control for various factors that potentially affect firms’incentives to manage earnings and for differences in the life-cycle stage and financial characteristics of dividend-paying fiing a sample of firm years obtained from Compustat’s ExecuComp database over the 18-year period 1992–2009,we find that,while on average firms engage in earnings smoothing,dividend-paying firms engage in more earnings smoothing than non-payers through both real activities and accrual choices.We then run two separate regressions—one for firm years with positive and one for firm years with negative pre-managed earnings change—to determine if both upward and downward earnings management are at play.We find that dividend-paying firms with positive (negative)pre-managed earnings change manage earnings down (up)more than non-payers.Our results are robust to alternative measures of earnings management,and are not due to spurious correlation.We conduct three additional tests to ensure that the results are driven by dividend-related incentives and not the differences in the economic characteristics of dividend-paying firms.First,we regress our measure of total earnings management on change in dividend policy and our control variables and find that dividend-paying firms engage in significantly less smoothing in years when they change their dividend level or payout ratio than in years when they do not.Second,using Chi-square tests we show that dividend-paying firms make less of a change in their dividend level and payout ratio in years when they report a small change in earnings (less than one percent)than in years when they do not.Third,because regular repurchasers are likely to have generally similar characteristics as regular dividend-paying firms,but do not have dividend-related incentives (Skinner and Soltes 2011),we repeat our tests using firms that make regular repurchases but do not pay dividends as a control group and find that dividend-paying firms smooth earnings to a greater extent than repurchasers.The results of these three tests confirm our finding that dividend policy drives earnings smoothing.Finally,we test whether the greater degree of earnings smoothing of the dividend-paying firms is,in part,responsible for their documented higher earnings persistence (e.g.,Skinner and Soltes 2011)by developing two models.The first model replicates prior results to confirm that dividend-paying firms have more persistent earnings.The second model modifies the first by breaking out current earnings into pre-managed earnings and earning management.The results support the conjecture that earnings smoothing,in part,drives the higher earnings persistence of dividend-paying firms.Overall,the results of our analyses are consistent with the notion that dividend-paying firms seek to smooth reported earnings to maintain their dividend policy,and indicate that earnings smoothing is more important for dividend-paying firms than for other firms.Our study makes several contributions to the literature.First,the study’s findings extend our understanding of dividend-policy driven earnings management.Kasanen,Kinnunen,and Niskanen (1996)document that Finnish firms manage earnings upward to report earnings high enough to pay out dividends in response to pressure from large institutional shareholders.Daniel,Denis,and Naveen (2008)find that dividend level threshold drives upward accruals management when502Liu andEspahbodi Accounting HorizonsSeptember 2014pre-managed earnings fall short of last year’s dividends.We expand on Daniel et al.(2008)by(1) measuring earnings management relative to last year’s earnings,not last year’s dividends,and(2) showing that dividend policy drives earnings management in both directions.1Thus,our results provide further support to survey and empirical evidence about the importance of maintaining dividend policy.Second,prior studies on dividend-policy driven earnings management only examine accrual-based earnings management.Earnings are affected by the sum of real activities management and accruals management.Cohen and Zarowin(2010)and Zang(2012)find that firms manage earnings through real activities in addition to,or as a substitute to,accrual-based activities.Zang(2012)in fact argues that real activities manipulation occurs during thefiscal year. At the end of the year,managers adjust the level of accrual-based earnings management based on the outcome of real activities manipulation.If managers use real activities management in addition to,or as a substitute to,accrual-based earnings management,examining only one earnings management technique at a time cannot explain the overall effect of earnings management activities (Fields,Lyz,and Vincent2001;Zang2012).By documenting that both real activities and accrual choices are at play,therefore,we provide additional evidence on dividend-policy driving earnings management.Third,and as important,we provide evidence that the greater earnings persistence of dividend-payingfirms that previous studies document(e.g.,Skinner and Soltes2011)is in part driven by earnings management,as conjectured by Dechow,Ge,and Schrand(2010b).That is,we show that dividend-payingfirms have greater earnings persistence than non-payers,partially because they smooth earnings to a greater extent to maintain their dividend policy.Thisfinding has implications for studies that examine the earnings quality of dividend-payingfirms.Finally,professional standards require the auditor to plan and perform the audit to obtain reasonable assurance about whether thefinancial statements are free of material misstatement, whether caused by errors or fraud.Our research suggests the company’s dividend policy as a risk factor(in the form of incentive or pressure to manipulate earnings)for the auditor to consider. Conversations with two partners at Big4accountingfirms confirm that while auditors typically look to understand whether‘‘earnings pressures’’exist that may provide management with the incentive and attitude to undertake inappropriate behavior(including the smoothing of earnings), they have not specifically thought about the company’s dividend policy driving such behavior.We proceed as follows.The second section discusses related research and develops our hypothesis.In the third section,we describe our data and methodology.The fourth section analyzes the association between dividend policy and earnings smoothing.Thefifth section examines whether the results are in fact driven by dividend policy.We evaluate the association between earnings smoothing and earnings persistence of dividend-payingfirms in the sixth section.The results of supplemental tests are reported in the seventh section.Finally,the eighth section concludes.RELATED LITERATURE AND HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENTEarnings Management LiteratureWe focus on three sets of studies that relate to our research questions.Thefirst set examines the upward real and accruals earnings management to meet or beat important earnings benchmarks, such as positive earnings level,positive earnings change,analyst forecast,and prior year’s 1Measuring earnings smoothing relative to last year’s earnings will only smooth the dividend payout ratio if dividend levels remain constant across time.We believe this is a reasonable assumption.Does Dividend Policy Drive Earnings Smoothing?503Accounting Horizons September2014dividends (Burgstahler and Dichev 1997;Degeorge,Patel,and Zeckhauser 1999;Burgstahler and Eames 2006;Roychowdhury 2006;Daniel et al.2008).We add to this literature by demonstrating that earnings smoothing is more important for dividend-paying firms than for other firms.Another set of studies explores upward and downward earnings management to smooth earnings.Graham,Harvey,and Rajgopal (2005)find that 97percent of the surveyed executives prefer smooth earnings,and 78percent of the surveyed executives admit to giving up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings.Empirical studies have documented various means through which firms smooth their reported earnings, e.g.,deferring or accelerating research and development expenses (R&D)(Perry and Grinaker 1994)and using accounting rules for valuing retained interest from securitizations (Dechow,Myers,and Shakespeare 2010a ).Empirical studies also have documented varying incentives for earnings smoothing.For example,Bergstresser and Philippon (2006)and Cheng and Warfield (2005)find that accruals management is more pronounced in the presence of higher levels of stock-based incentives;and J.Gaver,K.Gaver,and Austin (1995)show that managers manipulate earnings to maximize bonus compensation.Our paper contributes to this subset of literature by providing evidence that dividend policy has an incremental effect on earnings smoothing.Finally,the third set of studies relates to earnings persistence of dividend-paying firms.Healy and Palepu (1988)find that dividend-initiating firms show more persistent earnings than dividend-omitting firms,suggesting there is less need for earnings management.Chen,Shevlin,and Tong (2007)find evidence that the initiation of,and increase in,dividend payments is associated with investors perceiving earnings to be of higher quality.Skinner and Soltes (2011)also document higher earnings persistence for dividend-paying firms.While the above studies document that the earnings of dividend-paying firms is more persistent,they do not investigate whether earnings management contributes to the higher earnings persistence.As Dechow et al.(2010b ,351)conjecture,the earnings of dividend-paying firms may be more persistent because these firms engage in more extensive earnings smoothing.By showing that earnings smoothing is at least partially responsible for the documented greater earnings persistence of dividend-paying firms,we provide empirical support for this conjecture.2Dividends LiteratureIn his pioneering survey of 28well-established companies,Lintner (1956)finds that managers are reluctant to cut dividends and they target long-term payout ratios when making dividend decisions.Twenty-six out of the 28sample companies had a specific target payout ratio that did not change over long periods of time.Many survey studies have been conducted since Lintner’s.Baker,Farrelly,and Edelman (1985)and Baker and Powell (1999)survey chief financial officers of New York Stock Exchange firms and find that managers generally agree that their firms should avoid making dividend changes that might soon be reversed,and that their firms should have target payout ratios.Baker and Powell (2000)and Baker et al.(2001)find that the desire to maintain a given dividend payout ratio is a moderately important factor relative to dividend level in determining dividend policy,and about half of the responding firms have explicit target payout ratios.Brav et al.(2005)investigate payout policies in the 21st century.Their analysis indicates that about 90percent of dividend-paying firms have a strong desire to avoid dividend reductions and to 2This evidence provides empirical support to what is implied from the finding of Francis,LaFond,Olsson,and Schipper (2004)that earnings persistence is positively associated with earnings smoothness,meaning any earnings figure that is smoother will also be more persistent.And,that since the reported earnings for dividend-paying firms are smoothed relative to pre-managed earnings (and to a greater extent than for non-dividend-paying firms),they should be relatively more persistent than pre-managed earnings (and to a greater extent than for non-dividend-paying firms).504Liu andEspahbodi Accounting HorizonsSeptember 2014smooth dividend streams from year to year.Eighty-four percent of the executives try to maintain consistency with historical dividend policies.Brav et al.’s(2005)analysis shows that maintaining dividend level is the main variable in deciding dividend policy,and payout ratio is of secondary importance.It also shows that managers believe that dividend decisions convey information to the market and that dividend reductions have negative consequences.3Overall,the results of survey studies suggest thatfirms target both dividend level and dividend payout ratio.The survey results also suggest that managers believe that dividend policy is value-relevant.The importance of maintaining historical dividend policy is supported by empirical research that shows a large negative stock market reaction to unexpected dividend decreases or omission (Aharony and Swary1980;Healy and Palepu1988;Ghosh and Woolridge1989;Grullon et al. 2002)and the stock market’s perception of the value relevance of dividends.In relation to the latter, Kallapur(1994)finds that,after controlling for earnings persistence and riskiness,and riskless interest rates,the earnings response coefficient increases as afirm’s payout ratio gets larger.The results of these empirical studies suggest that dividends constitute implicit contracts between shareholders and management and,as such,managers have strong incentives to smooth earnings to maintain the dividend level and payout ratio.By documenting that dividend-payingfirms engage in more earnings smoothing,we provide support to survey and empirical evidence about the importance of maintaining dividend policy.Hypothesis DevelopmentPrior studies on earnings managementfind thatfirms,in general,have incentives to manage earnings downward when pre-managed earnings exceed last year’s earnings and upward when pre-managed earnings fall short of last year’s earnings(Bartov1993;Perry and Grinaker1994;Graham et al.2005;Dechow et al.2010a).We hypothesize that earnings smoothing is more important for dividend-payingfirms and that dividend-payingfirms engage in more downward,as well as upward,earnings management than non-payers.The intuition for our hypothesis is as follows.Survey and empirical studies(presented above)suggest that dividend-payingfirms have a strong desire to maintain their historical dividend policy and they target both dividend level and payout ratio.In years of positive pre-managed earnings change,maintaining the dividend level would lead to a decrease in the payout ratio.And,maintaining the payout ratio would require the firm to increase its dividend level,raising the benchmark for future periods.Manipulating earnings downward,therefore,helps dividend-payingfirms to maintain(avoid changing)their dividend level and payout ratio.On the other hand,in years of negative pre-managed earnings change,maintaining the dividend level would lead to an increase in the payout ratio.And,maintaining the payout ratio would require thefirm to decrease its dividend level,exposing thefirm to a potential negative stock market reaction.Manipulating earnings upward,therefore,helps dividend-payingfirms to maintain their dividend level and payout ratio.Relative to non-payers,then,we expect dividend-payingfirms to have incremental incentives to smooth reported earnings due to the desire to maintain their dividend level and dividend payout 3Mukherjee(2009,157)concludes:‘‘Researchers consistently report that abnormal return of a dividend-change announcement is of the same sign as the sign of the dividend change.Although researchers have advanced several hypotheses to explain this phenomenon,two highly researched and competing hypotheses are the cash flow signaling hypothesis and the free cashflow hypothesis.According to the cashflow signaling hypothesis,the stock price moves in the same direction as the dividend change because dividend changes convey information about thefirm’s future growth opportunities.The free cashflow hypothesis suggests that price reacts favorably to the announcement of a dividend increase because dividend increase reduces the agency cost of free cashflow.Similarly,the stock price reacts negatively to an announcement of reduced dividends because the potential for overinvestment increases.’’Does Dividend Policy Drive Earnings Smoothing?505Accounting Horizons September2014ratio.Further,both downward and upward earnings management should be at play.That is,dividend-paying firms with positive (negative)pre-managed earnings change are expected to engage in more downward (upward)earnings management than non-payers.Several earnings management studies (e.g.,Burgstahler and Dichev 1997;Cohen and Zarowin 2010;Zang 2012)show that firms use real activities in addition to,or in lieu of,accrual choices to manage earnings.Managers may rather manipulate earnings through real activities because real activities manipulation is less likely to draw auditor or regulator scrutiny (Dechow and Skinner 2000;Graham et al.2005;Roychowdhury 2006;Cohen and Zarowin 2010).On the other hand,managers would likely not know the impact of real activities manipulation on earnings until the end of the fiscal year,at which time they may have to adjust the level of accruals (Cohen and Zarowin 2010;Zang 2012).The costs associated with real activities manipulation may also create an incentive for managers to use accruals manipulation instead (Cohen and Zarowin 2010).We thus expect dividend-paying firms to use both accruals and real activities to smooth earnings.Formally stated,our hypothesis is:H:Dividend-paying firms engage in more earnings smoothing than non-payers through realactivities and accruals.DATA AND METHODOLOGYAppendix A describes the variables used in this study.Like Daniel et al.(2008),our sample consists of all publicly traded firms in Compustat’s ExecuComp database,because it includes managerial compensation data,which have been shown to be important determinants of earnings management.Our study,however,spans over the period 1992to 2009,whereas Daniel et al.’s (2008)covers the period 1992–2005.We limit the sample to firms with sufficient annual data to calculate the variables listed in Appendix A.Consistent with prior literature,we omit firms in regulated industries and financial institutions (Roychowdhury 2006;Daniel et al.2008).To control for outliers,we delete firm years with dividends at the extreme 99th percentile levels and all the other variables at the 1st and 99th percentiles of their respective distributions (Burgstahler and Dichev 1997;Dechow,Kothari,and Watts 1998;Dechow,Richardson,and Tuna 2003).Also,to estimate normal levels of cash flows,production costs,discretionary expenditures,and accruals,we require at least eight observations in each two-digit SIC industry for each year (Cohen,Dey,and Lys 2008;Cohen and Zarowin 2010).Our final sample includes 13,826firm years.Because earnings is affected by both real activities and accrual choices,we define total earnings management as the sum of real earnings management and abnormal total accruals.Prior studies (Roychowdhury 2006;Cohen and Zarowin 2010)consider three measures of real earnings management:abnormal cash flows,abnormal production costs,and abnormal discretionary expenditures.We define real earnings management as the negative of the sum of abnormal cash flows and abnormal discretionary expenditures so that a higher value suggests more upward earnings management (Cohen and Zarowin 2010).We do not include abnormal production costs in our measure of real earnings management for our main tests because,as stated in Cohen and Zarowin (2010,9),the same activities that lead to abnormally high production costs also lead to abnormally low CFO;thus,adding abnormal production costs leads to double counting.44However,to be consistent with Cohen and Zarowin (2010)and Zang (2012),we also measure real earnings management as the sum of abnormal production cost and negative of abnormal discretionary expenditures.As another sensitivity test,we measure real earnings management as the negative of abnormal cash flows for the reasons stated in in the ‘‘Supplemental Tests ’’section.The results of both tests are discussed in the ‘‘Supplemental Tests ’’section.506Liu andEspahbodi Accounting HorizonsSeptember 2014To estimate normal cashflows,normal production costs,and normal discretionary expenditures,we use the models developed by Dechow et al.(1998)and implemented in other earnings management papers(Roychowdhury2006;Cohen et al.2008;Cohen and Zarowin2010; Zang2012).Normal total accruals is estimated using the cross-sectional model of Jones(1991)and adjusting forfinancial performance because Kothari,Leone,and Wasley(2005)find that it is important to control forfirm performance when estimating discretionary accruals.5Specifically,we develop the following four regressions:CFO t=Assets tÀ1¼a0ð1=Assets tÀ1Þþa1ðSales t=Assets tÀ1Þþa2ðD Sales t=Assets tÀ1Þþ´e t:ð1ÞPROD t=Assets tÀ1¼a0ð1=Assets tÀ1Þþa1ðSales t=Assets tÀ1Þþa2ðD Sales t=Assets tÀ1Þþa3ðD Sales tÀ1=Assets tÀ1Þþ´e t:ð2ÞDISX t=Assets tÀ1¼a0ð1=Assets tÀ1Þþa1ðSales tÀ1=Assets tÀ1Þþ´e t:ð3ÞTA t=Assets tÀ1¼a0ð1=Assets tÀ1Þþa1ðD Sales t=Assets tÀ1Þþa2ðPPE t=Assets tÀ1Þþa3ðIBEI t=Assets tÀ1Þþ´e t:ð4ÞIn the above regressions,CFO is cashflow from operations as reported on the statement of cashflows;Assets is total assets;Sales is total revenues;PROD is production costs,defined as the sum of cost of goods sold and change in the inventory;DISX is discretionary expenditures,defined as the sum of advertising expenses,R&D expenses,and selling,general and administrative expenses(SG&A);IBEI is income before extraordinary items;TA is total accruals,defined as IBEI less CFO;and PPE is property,plant,and equipment.Each regression is estimated separately for each two-digit SIC industry for each year.The abnormal cashflows,abnormal production costs(APROD),abnormal discretionary expenditures,and abnormal total accruals(ATA)are computed as the difference between the actual values and the normal levels predicted(i.e.,they are the residuals)from Regressions(1)through (4).6Abnormal cashflows and abnormal discretionary expenditures are multiplied byÀ1(and denoted as ACFO and ADISX,respectively)so that a higher value in all cases indicates greater upward earnings management.We define real earnings management as the sum of ACFO and ADISX,and total earnings management(TEM)as ACFO plus ADISX plus ATA.Our hypothesis examines whether dividend-payingfirms engage in more earnings smoothing than non-payers through real activities and accruals management.It is tested using the following regression:5Since previous research has shown that measures of abnormal accruals are more likely to be misspecified for firms with extreme levels of performance(Dechow,Sloan,and Sweeney1995)and for fast growingfirms (McNichols2000;Dechow et al.2003),we re-estimate total accruals using change in sales;property,plant,and equipment;cashflow from operations;and book-to-market ratio as independent variables.The results are qualitatively the same.6Abnormal operating cashflows can be the result of real activities to manage earnings(as discussed above)or opportunistic classification of cashflows within the Statement of Cash Flows.Both activities result in‘‘abnormal cashflows,’’even though classification shifting has no effect on reported earnings,which is what we intend to measure.That is,classifying an investing cashflow as if it were operating,or vice versa,would affect reported operating cashflows but would have no effect on reported earnings.Any misclassifications create noise and bias our results againstfinding a significant difference in earnings smoothing behavior between payers and non-payers.Further,misclassifications do not affect other measures of real earnings management:ADISX and APROD.We thank the reviewer who brought this point to our attention.Does Dividend Policy Drive Earnings Smoothing?507Accounting Horizons September2014EM ¼b 0þb 1DP þb 2PMEC þb 3PMEC ÃDP þb 4STOCK þb 5BONUSþb 6PMEC ÃSTOCK þb 7PMEC ÃBONUS þb 8BTM þb 9SIZE þb 10LEV þb 11REþb 12AGE þb 13GROWTH þb 14CAPX þb 15INDYR þe :ð5ÞEM is the earnings management proxy,and is initially defined as TEM to capture the total effects of real activities and accruals management.To shed light on whether dividend-paying firms engage in income smoothing through real activities,accrual-based activities,or both,and in the case of real activities,whether they do so through revenues or costs,we also estimate the above regression,defining EM as ACFO,APROD,ADISX,or ATA.7The independent variables in Regression (5)are as follows.DP is the dividend-paying firm dummy,which equals 1if the firm pays dividends in both the prior year and the current year,and 0otherwise;it is included to control for any systematic difference between payers and non-payers.8PMEC is pre-managed earnings change,and equals earnings change minus the earnings management proxy:TEM,ACFO,APROD,ADISX,or ATA .The rest of the variables are intended to control for factors that influence management’s incentives to manage earnings and for differences in the life-cycle stage and financial characteristics of dividend-paying firms.Stock incentive ratio (STOCK )and bonus (BONUS )control for compensation incentives for chief financial officers and chief executive officers (Bergstresser and Philippon 2006;Cohen et al.2008;Jiang,Petroni,and Wang 2010).As with Daniel et al.(2008),we also control for growth opportunities (BTM ),firm size (SIZE ),leverage (LEV ),and retained earnings (RE ).Further,since prior research (e.g.,Healy and Palepu 1988;Grullon et al.2002;Skinner and Soltes 2011)has established that the life-cycle stage and financial characteristics of dividend-paying firms differ from non-payers,9we add age (AGE ),sales growth (GROWTH ),and capital expenditures (CAPX )to our regression (Anthony and Ramesh 1992;Tian,Collins,and Hribar 2009).Two-digit SIC and year dummies (INDYR )are also included in the regression.Evidence of earnings smoothing would be provided by a negative coefficient on PMEC,and evidence that dividend-paying firms engage in more earnings smoothing would be provided by a negative coefficient on PMEC ÃDP .All p-values reported are calculated using two-tailed tests,unless indicated otherwise.RESULTSThe descriptive statistics for our sample and the correlation coefficients among the earnings management measures are reported in Table 1.In Panel A,we report the descriptive statistics for the dividend-paying firms and non-payers separately.Similar to Daniel et al.(2008),about 50percent of the whole sample are dividend-paying firms (6,791over 13,826),and the average dividends paid is about $100million (not reported in the table).While the average dividend-paying firm has over $4.7billion in sales and $4.5billion in assets,the average non-payer firm has less than $1.7billion in sales and $1.6billion in assets.Dividend-paying firms are also more profitable than non-payers 7Reporting results for the three individual measures of real earnings management (ACFO,APROD,and ADISX )would also avoid possible dilution of the potentially different implications of the three individual variables for earnings by using an aggregated earnings management measure (Cohen and Zarowin 2010,9).8Non-payers include firms that paid dividends in prior year but not in the current year,and vice versa .To address the concern that this classification of firms as payers and non-payers may have driven the results,we re-run our regression using a new sample excluding these firms (Daniel et al.2008).Our results hold using this new sample.9Because of differences in the dividend-paying firms’life-cycle stage and financial characteristics,any abnormal accruals or cash flows are likely to have the effect of smoothing earnings regardless of whether managers are using discretion in their accounting choices,or real activities.Also,these differences in financial characteristics can affect the benefits and costs—unrelated to dividends—of managing earnings.We are thankful to one of the reviewers for bringing these issues up and for suggesting tests to address them.508Liu andEspahbodiAccounting HorizonsSeptember 2014。
老年脓毒症幸存者股四头肌厚度变化对非计划再入院的预测价值

老年脓毒症幸存者股四头肌厚度变化对非计划再入院的预测价值李云婷,王惠虹,李芬*海南医学院第二附属医院,海南 570311Predictive value of quadriceps muscle thickness changes for unplanned readmission in elderly sepsis survivorsLI Yunting, WANG Huihong, LI FenThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Hainan 570311 China Corresponding Author LIFen,E⁃mail:****************Abstract Objective :To investigate the predictive value of quadriceps muscle thickness (QMT ) changes in elderly sepsis survivors for unplanned readmission within 3 months after discharge.Methods :A total of 310 elderly septic survivors admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU ) of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University from January 2020 to March 2022 were enrolled as the prospective study follow -up cohort.Follow -up was undertaken consecutive for 3 months ,and observation ended at the first unplanned readmission or completion of follow -up.The clinical data of all elderly septic survivors were collected.QMT was measured by ultrasound within 24 hours and on the 7th day after admission to ICU , and the change rate of QMT was calculated.Univariate analysis ,multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC ) curve were used to explore the relationship between changes of QMT and unplanned readmission within 3 months after discharge in elderly septic survivors.Results :Among 310 elderly septic survivors ,96 patients had unplanned readmission within 3 months after discharge , with an incidence of 30.97%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age≥75 years (OR=2.086, P =0.036), QMT on the 7th day (OR=0.356, P <0.001) and change rate of QMT (OR=1.368, P <0.001) were independent influencing factors of unplanned readmission within 3 months after discharge in older septic survivors .The ROC curve analysis results showed that the areas under the ROC curve of QMT on the 7th day and change rate of QMT for predicting the unplanned readmission within 3 months after discharge in older septic survivors were 0.758 and 0.877, respectively. When the cut -off values were 16.83 mm and 6.04% respectively , the sensitivity of QMT on the 7th day and change rate of QMT for predicting the unplanned readmission within 3 months after discharge in elderly septic survivors were 82.29% and 87.50% respectively , the specificity were 64.95% and 82.24% respectively.The predictive efficiency of change rate of QMT was significantly higher than that of QMT on the 7th day (Z =3.096, P =0.002).Conclusion :QMT can reflect the muscle mass and nutritional status of elderly septic survivors. The more obvious decrease of QMT , and the higher risk of unplanned readmission within 3 months after discharge.Keywords the elderly ; sepsis ; quadriceps muscle thickness ; unplanned readmission ; influencing factors 摘要 目的:探讨老年脓毒症幸存者股四头肌厚度(QMT )变化对其出院后3 个月内非计划再入院的预测价值。
PISA-2012-results-UK 中文翻译

United-KingdomKey Findings主要重点•The United Kingdom performs around the average in mathematics and reading and above average in science, compared with the 34 OECD countries that participated in the 2012 PISA assessment of 15-year-olds.·英国(参与者)与参加2012年PISA的34个经济合作与发展组织成员国的15岁参与者们相比,在数学和阅读方面的表现处于平均水平,而在科学方面的表现则超过了平均水平。
•When compared with PISA 2006 and PISA 2009, there has been no change in performance in any of the subjects tested. (The PISA 2000 and 2003 samples for the United Kingdom did not meet the PISA response-rate standards, so the observed higher performance in 2000 should not be used for comparisons.)·当我们将2012年测评结果与2006、2009年的PISA结果相比时,发现在任何被测试的科目中,其不同年的测评结果相差不大,(PISA2003、2000年英国的实验样例不符合PISA的反应率标准,故观测到的较高的结果不应被用来进行比较)•The United Kingdom is listed 26th in mathematics performance, but because results are based on a sample, its relative position could be between 23rd and 31st. Its performance is similar to Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Iceland, Republic of Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway and Portugal. ·英国在数学表现中被列为第26名,然而因为结果是基于个体样例的,所以其可能的排名大概处于23~31名之间,英国的测评表现与捷克、丹麦、法国、冰岛、爱尔兰共和国、拉脱维亚、卢森堡公国、新西兰、挪威、葡萄牙等国较为接近。
奥巴马2012年8月25日电台演讲译文

奥巴马2012年8月25日电台演讲译文【原创】Hi, everybody. Over the last few weeks, there’s been a lot of talk about Medicare, with a lot of accusations and mis information flying around. So today I want to step back for a minute and share with you some actual facts and news about the program.大家好。
在过去的几周里,街头巷尾到处都在讨论医保,其中有很多指责和误解。
所以今天我打算花几分钟后退几步,澄清关于这个项目的事实和新闻。
This week, we found out that, thanks to the health care law we passed, nearly 5.4 million seniors with Medicare have saved over $4.1 billion on prescription drugs. That’s an average of more than $700 per person. And this year alone, 18 million seniors with Medicare have taken advantage of preventive care benefits like mammograms or other cancer screenings that now come at no extra cost.本周,我们发现,幸亏医保法案通过了,才使将近五百四十万有医保的老年人们在处方药上节省了超过四十一亿美元。
平均每人超过700美元。
仅仅是今年,一千八百万有医保的老年人们享受了诸如乳腺透视或其它癌症透视的预防性医疗检查而没有增加费用。
unit 5 Text A

Before Reading
Global Reading Detailed Reading
After Reading
Unniitt 55 TTrruuee HHeeiigghtt Supplementary Reading
Before Reading
Global Reading Detailed Reading
― Stephen Hawking
• He is called “China’s flying man”.
• In 2002, he won gold medals in the men’s 110m hurdles at the Asian Games and the Asian Championships.
Although the world is full of sufferings, it is full also of the overcoming of it.
― Helen Keller
—1942 Born in Oxford, England.
—1962 Received a bachelor’s degree in physics and then enrolled as a research student in general relativity at the University of Cambridge.
A 3rd Serving of Chicken Soup for the Soul
A 3rd Serving of Chicken Soup for the Soul
• This bestselling book presents a joyful collection of stories for your reading pleasure.
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Mersen 2012 First-Half ResultsSignificant events of first-half 2012•Difficult economic environment in Europe•Sustained demand in North America and Asia, respectively up 7% and 15% on a like-for-like basis excluding solar•Lower sales in the solar market, but excess inventories of solar panels in the process of being absorbed thanks to high installation rates•Healthy order backlog in China; significant contract with Sabic•Syndicated credit facility refinanced in July, extending the average maturity of debt to five years.First-half 2012 financial highlights•Sales up 2% as reported (down 6% like-for-like)•Operating income before non-recurring items of €44.4 million, representing 10.4% of sales•€40 million in net cash from operating activities before capex•Net debt/Ebitda1: 1.98x2 Net debt/Equity: 46%The consolidated financial statements for the six months ended June 30, 2012 have been reviewed by the Supervisory Board and approved by the Management Board on August 29, 2012 after the auditors had performed their limited review.1Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization2Ratio calculated by the method specified in the covenants clauses of the loan documentation for the USD 100 million US private placement notes issue carried out in November 2011 and the new syndicated credit facility obtained in July 2012.Luc Themelin, Chairman of the Management Board, commented:“After an outstanding 2011, this year began in a less favorable economic environment, particularly in Europe. We also had to contend with a temporary decline in sales to the solar market linked to excess inventories of solar cells in China. Despite this environment and the resulting fall-off in business volumes, our operating margin remained at a healthy 10.4%. This performance confirms our Group’s resilience in the face of a downturn and its ability to adapt to changing conditions. Net cash from operating activities was also high, at €40 million.We don’t expect economic conditions to be more favorable for the Group in the second half of the year. However, based on recent market data, orders from photovoltaic cell manufacturers should pick up before year-end, as solar panels are still being installed at a sustained pace around the world, enabling to absorb these manufacturers’ excess inventories. Looking beyond 2012, trends should be more positive, not only in the solar market as I’ve just mentioned but also in the electronics market, with more projects coming on stream in some sectors, and in the chemicals market where we already have a significant order backlog.Sales and operating margin before non-recurring itemsConsolidated sales for first-half 2012amounted to €427.1 million. The 1.8% increase over the year earlier period was attributable to the first-time consolidation of Eldre and the favorable currency effect. On a like-for-like basis, sales were down 6%. Excluding solar, sales were up 2% with a sustained demand in North America (up 7%) and Asia (up 15%).Ebitda3 declined by 12% to €64.2 million from €73.1 million in first-half 2011, representing 15.0% of sales versus 17.4%. The margin erosion was due to lower business volumes and an unfavorable product mix, the combined effects of which were nevertheless partially offset by the €8 million overall impact of a productivity and cost containment plan.Operating income before non-recurring items4 came to €44.4 million. Operating margin before non-recurring items stood at 10.4% of sales, down 2.5 points on first-half 2011 but up 0.5 points on the same period of 2010.The Advanced Materials and Technologies (AMT) division generated sales of €184.3 million, down 7.9% like-for-like on first-half 2011.The decline was due to a fall-off in sales in the solar market, as Chinese photovoltaic cell manufacturers faced excess inventories, and also reflected a very high basis of comparison. Like-for-like growth in the division’s other markets stood at 9.6%. Demand from the process industries was strong, mainly in the United States and Asia, leading the Group to refocus its graphite production capacity. Business volumes were also higher in the aeronautic and chemicals-pharmaceuticals markets.AMT reported Ebitda of €35.8 million, representing 19.4% of the division’s sales. Its operating income before non-recurring items came to €22.1 million, representing 12.0% of sales versus 15.9% in first-half 2011. Operating margin was weakened by lower business volumes and an unfavorable product mix, with sales sharply down in the high margin solar market and up in the chemicals-pharmaceuticals market where margins are lower.Sales by the Electrical Components and Technologies (ECT) division amounted to €242.8 million in first-half 2012, down 4.3% like-for-like compared with the year earlier period. The downtrend steepened in the second quarter and was particularly marked in Europe’s troubled macro-economic environment. While3Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization4 As defined in the recommendation of the French national accounting board (CNC) no. 2009.R.03.conditions were challenging in the process industry, rail transportation and power electronics markets, demand remained strong in the windpower and air transportation markets.ECT ended the period with Ebitda of €35.1 million, representing 14.5% of the division’s sales. Its operating income before non-recurring items amounted to €29.2 million, representing 12.0% of sales versus 13.6% in first-half 2011, a decline that was due to lower business volumes.Net incomeNet income for first-half 2012 came in at €22.9 million compared with €32.9 million for the same period of 2011. Non-recurring items represented a net expense of €2.4 million and concerned restructuring plans and business acquisition costs. Net finance costs for the period amounted to €6.6 million, while income tax expense stood at €11.7 million, representing an effective tax rate of 33% in line with the 2011 rate.Cash and debtNet cash from operating activities before income tax payments and the change in working capital requirement amounted to €61.2 million in first-half 2012 compared with €72.3 million in the year-earlier period. The business downturn led to a lower change in the working capital requirement compared to the year earlier period (-€7.8 million versus -€38.0 million). Action plans to improve the Group’s cash position were pursued during the period.Capital expenditure stood at €14.7 million and mainly concerned maintenance expenditure.As a result, free cash flow – corresponding to net cash from operating activities after capital expenditure – improved considerably, representing a positive €25 million versus a negative €4 million in first-half 2011.Net debt at June 30, 2012 represented €255.2 million, up slightly from €239.5 million at December 31, 2011. The increase takes into account the early-2012 acquisition of Eldre, for approximately €30 million.Financial positionThe Group remains in a sound financial position, with a net debt to Ebitda ratio of 1.985 at June 30, 2012 versus 1.66 at December 31, 2011 and a net debt to equity ratio of 46%5 versus 44% at end-2011.5Ratio calculated by the method specified in the covenants clauses of the loan documentation for the USD 100 million US private placement notes issue carried out in November 2011 and the new syndicated credit facility obtained in July 2012.DividendAt the Annual General Meeting, shareholders decided to set the dividend at €1 per share and to offer a dividend reinvestment option. In early July, dividends totaling €19 million were paid in cash and 62,615 new shares were issued in lieu of dividends, leading to a €1.3 million capital increase.Subsequent eventsIn July, Mersen obtained bank lines of credit for a total of €215 million to replace the syndicated credit facility that was due to expire in July 2013.They comprise a syndicated facility with two five-year tranches of €100 million and USD 75 million respectively, repayable at maturity, and bilateral lines of credit totaling €55 million with an average maturity of four years. The initial average spread on these lines is Euribor/Libor +115 bps. It will be revised based on the Group’s net debt/Ebitda ratio. The average maturity of the drawn down amounts is now close to five years.2012 outlookThe economic environment is expected to remain fairly unfavorable in the second half of the year. However, the solar market should pick up during the fourth quarter, although there has not yet been any sign of a significant rebound in the order flow.Deliveries to the chemicals market look set to remain high, leading to a less favorable product-mix than in 2011 although the effect will be partly offset by on-going implementation of productivity and cost containment plans. Looking further ahead, the Group will remain focused on its strategy and will maintain business momentum by leveraging its buoyant solar and electronics markets, along with its robust order backlog in the chemicals market.Condensed Consolidated Income StatementIn millions of euros June 30, 2012June 30, 2011Consolidated sales 427.1 419.4Gross margin 129.2 134.3Selling, marketing and other costs (40.6) (40.7)Administrative and R&D costs (44.2) (39.4)Operating income before non-recurring items 44.4 54.2% of Sales 10.4% 12.9% Non recurring income and expenses, net (2.4) (2.0)Amortization of revalued intangible assets (0.4) (0.4)Operating income 41.6 51.8Net finance costs (6.6) (4.8)Current and deferred income tax (11.7) (15.7)Net income from continuing operations 23.3 31.3Net (loss)/income from assets held for sale or discontinuedoperations (0.4) 1.6Net income for the period 22.9 32.9EBITDA 64.2 73.1% of Sales 15.0% 17.4% Segment analysis excluding corporate expensesAdvanced Materials and Technologies Electrical Components and TechnologiesIn millions of euros June 30, 2012June 30, 2011June 30, 2012June 30, 2011 Sales 184.3 189.4 242.8 230.0 EBITDA 35.8 42.6 35.1 37.7% of Sales19.4% 22.5% 14.5% 16.4% Operating income beforenon-recurring items 22.1 30.2 29.2 31.3% of Sales12.0% 15.9% 12.0% 13.6%Condensed Consolidated Statement of Financial PositionIn millions of euros June 30, 2012Dec. 31, 2011 Non-current assets684.3 651.5 Inventories 198.5 188.7 Trade and other receivables 165.8 148.7 Other assets 3.4 5.1 TOTAL 1,052.0 994.0In millions of euros June 30, 2012Dec. 31, 2011 Equity 553.7 542.9 Provisions 3.3 5.5 Employee benefits 37.3 35.6 Trade and other payables 142.4 131.8 Other liabilities 60.1 38.7 Net Debt 255.2 239.5 TOTAL 1,052.0 994.0 Condensed Consolidated Statement of Changes in EquityIn millions of euros June 30, 2012June 30, 2011 Net cash from operating activities before change in WCR 61.2 72.3 Change in working capital requirement (7.8) (38.0) Income tax paid (13.7) (16.3) Net cash from discontinued operations (0.2) Net cash from operating activities 39.7 17.8 Capital expenditure (14.7) (21.5) Net cash from continuing operations after capital expenditure 25.0 (3.7) Impact of changes in the scope of consolidation (26.9) 0.9 Disposals of non-current assets and other (0.7) 3.1 Net cash from/(used by) operating and investing activities (2.6) 0.3The interim financial report is available for download from the Mersen website---end---Diary datesThird-quarter 2012 sales: October 24, 2012 (after market closing)About MersenA global expert in materials and solutions for extreme environments as well as in the safety and reliability of electrical equipment, Mersen designs innovative solutions to address its clients’ specific needs to enable them to optimize their manufacturing process in sectors such as energy, transportation, electronics, chemical, pharmaceutical and process industries.The Group is listed on NYSE Euronext Paris – Compartment BVisit our website Analyst and Investor Contact Press ContactVéronique Boca Vilizara LazarovaVP Financial CommunicationMersen Publicis ConsultantsTel. + 33 (0)1 46 91 54 40 Tél. +33 (0)1 44 82 46 34Email : dri@ Email: zarova@consultants.publicis.fr。