伯南克讲话前
伯南克在普林斯顿大学的演讲
伯南克在普林斯顿大学的演讲It's nice to be back at Princeton. I find it difficult to believe that it's been almost 11 years since I departed these halls for Washington. I wrote recently to inquire about the status of my leave from the university, and the letter I got back began, "Regrettably, Princeton receives many more qualified applicants for faculty positions than we can accommodate."重返普林斯顿感觉不错，很难相信，我离开校园赴华盛顿已经11年了。
近期我向校方询问了我的教职问题，回信称：“很遗憾，普林斯顿收到很多更有才华的学者的求职信，而教职有限。
”I'll extend my best wishes to the seniors later, but first I want to congratulate the parents and families here. As a parent myself, I know that putting your kid through college these days is no walk in the park. Some years ago I had a colleague who sent three kids through Princeton even though neither he nor his wife attended this university. He and his spouse were very proud of that accomplishment, as they should have been. But my colleague also used to say that, from a financial perspective, the experience was like buying a new Cadillac every year and then driving it off a cliff. I should say that he always added that he would do it all over again in a minute. So, well done, momsand dads.我将在稍后献上对毕业生的最美好祝愿，首先我要恭喜在座的家长们。
杰克逊霍尔会议在即,各界猜测伯老讲话或无新意：市场静待欧美央行举动,亚太股市盘中持稳
环汇国际：市场各界对于美联储(Fed)主席伯南克(Ben S.Bernanke)即将于本周五(8月31日)在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表的讲话已经充满了期待，而在欧洲央行(ECB)行长德拉基(Mario Draghi)因为“工作繁忙”而将缺席此次会议之后，伯南克也就成了会上当仁不让的主角和各方的关注焦点所在。
在美联储发布了7月31日至8月1日会议的纪要文件之后，投资者对于美联储推出新一轮量化宽松措施(QE3)的预期已经明显升温，大家都已开始揣测美联储将于何时推出何种宽松措施。
然而，鉴于美联储目前仍在对9月12日那次会议上拟推出的措施作反复考虑与斟酌，伯南克在本周五时的讲话或许也难有新意。
圣路易斯联储主席布拉德(James Bullard)近来在接受媒体采访时就指出，今年夏天以来市场投资者始终对美联储出台QE3持有着相当高的预期，而如此高的预期实际上是不理智的。
摩根大通(JP Morgan)首席经济专家卡斯曼(Bruce Kasman)表示，伯南克在讲话中将很难会对美联储的下一步政策措施作出有效的暗示，因为留给美联储的时间实在不多，他可能会把一些该说的话留到9月份的那次联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上。
而在9月份的那次会议上，美联储很有可能承诺会把当前接近于零的基准利率至少延续到2015年中期，比此前的承诺再延后半年。
另外，美联储推出QE3的时间将会是明年1月份。
业内机构Jefferies首席金融经济专家麦卡锡(Ward McCarthy)也表示，伯南克本周五不会在讲话措辞中有太多的新意。
他很可能会重美联储有可能会在“必要时”出台更多宽松措施的前景，包括购债和承诺延长超低利率维持期限等，而这正是他此前一再向市场透露的信息。
因而麦卡锡认为，美联储最有可能出台QE3的时间是今年年底，也就是美国大选尘埃落定之后。
富国银行的策略师亚当斯(Gina Martin Adams)则认为，鉴于伯南克近期以来一直以“光说不练”的形象示人，他在杰克逊霍尔会议上的姿态估计也不会有根本的转变。
伯老言辞微妙,美日风云争霸
本周(5月20-24日当周)无疑是伯老国会证词讲话占据了各大焦点头条，但老伯显然没有市场想象的那么简单。
其言辞前后的微妙变化，让汇市峰回路转了一把。
而下周，虽然风险事件较少，随之而来的是美日的大量经济数据潮，美日或将大显身手，一决高下。
QE还得看经济数据说话本周伯老言辞的微妙变化无疑是最令投资者感到困惑的话题。
这从市场反应中也可以看出，前半段伯南克表示美国货币政策提供了巨大裨益，称提前收紧政策将带来巨大风险，并没有暗示撤走刺激措施，令风险货币纷纷刷新日高。
但在半小时后，风险货币急转直下，因伯南克在提问环节称，如果我们看到经济持续改善，且有信心复苏趋势将持续，我们可能在未来几次会议上缩减资产购买规模。
”他的这番讲话让市场对美联储提前缩减QE的臆测进一步升温。
了解伯南克的投资者都知道，在国会证词这种极为正式的讲话中，伯老发表一些模棱两可的言论，向来是其的惯常作风。
而隔夜伯老的所有讲话，其最为本质的理念依然还是只有一个，未来政策变化需要靠数据来说话。
外媒分析师指出，这标志着美联储政策进入一个微妙的新阶段，沟通是其中的关键。
伯南克在国会的证词立场温和，与前一天纽约联储总裁杜德利的讲话相呼应，旨在安抚投资者对QE3或在未来数月缩减的担忧。
但在回答问题时，伯南克表示美联储“可能在未来的某次会议上……放缓购债步伐”，债市和股市立即以急剧下跌做出反应。
道明证券(TD Securities)全球汇率、外汇和商品研究主管Eric Green表示：“这种让婴儿断奶的复杂任务，从来就不是轻松的工作，”“周三是这个过程其中的一天，也彰显出伯南克如今面临了复杂的讯息传达问题。
”而美联储周三(5月22日)发布了此前在4月30日至5月1日召开的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议的纪要文件。
会议纪要显示，多数美联储成员认为在此后逐步缩减当前的量化宽松措施(QE)购债规模，但前提是先要有足够的证据能证实明美国经济确已出现显著好转。
伯南克关于美国经济展望的讲话0607
伯南克关于美国经济展望的讲话0607日期：2011-06-11 11:27:002011-6-7感谢主办方再次邀请我参加国际货币会议。
我首先将简短更新关于美国经济的展望，随后讨论全球商品市场近期的发展，它们深刻地影响了美国经济和世界经济，最后谈一些关于货币政策的思考。
增长展望今年美国经济增长到现在为止看上去有些慢于预期。
一季度总产出年率仅仅增长1.8%，这个季度，日本地震和海啸导致的供应链中断将阻碍经济活动。
近几周来自劳动力市场的若干指标也显示，一些（经济增长的）动能丧失了。
当然，我们正在监测这些状况的演变。
这就是说，未来几个月随着日本灾难对制造业产出的影响逐渐消散，随着汽油价格适度回落，增长可能在今年下半年重拾升势。
总体上，经济复苏似乎以一种温和的步伐继续，尽管这种速度在不同部门间并不均匀，尽管在数百万失业和半失业工人看来，这种速度令人沮丧。
如通常那样，家庭支出的能力和意愿是未来几个季度经济扩张速度的一个重要决定因素。
目前，有许多正面和负面的因素影响着家庭的财务状况和支出意愿。
从正面情况来看，去年12月国会通过的工资税削减议案使得今年初以来劳动力市场条件得以改善，家庭收入得到提升。
家庭财富增加（主要反映在股权价值收益）和较低的债务负担也提高了消费者增加支出的意愿。
负面角度，家庭正面临一些显著的不利因素，包括食物和能源价格上涨，房屋价值下降，某些信贷市场的持续紧张，以及仍然高企的失业率，所有这些都会挫伤消费者信心。
劳动力市场的发展在设置家庭支出进程方面将显得特别重要。
如你所知，就业形势距正常情况尚远。
例如，一个关于劳动力投入的综合指标：生产工人总小时数，它反映人们兼职的程度、加班的机会以及就业人数，这个指标自最近的衰退开始到2009年10月已经显著下降近10个百分点。
尽管工作的小时数自扩张以来已经上升，但这个指标仍然低于其衰退前水平约6.5个百分点。
作为一个比较，工作总小时数在1982-1982年深度衰退中的最大下降比这次要少6个百分点。
9月19日美联储主席伯南克讲话全文
9月19日美联储主席伯南克讲话全文：保持宽松的货币政策作者：LMAX万海美联储主席伯南克在北京时间9月19日2:00美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)宣布利率决定,发表政策声明及经济展望后，主持媒体发布会。
伯南克发言如下：伯南克称，目前美国经济增长下滑风险已经降低，但是增长的幅度变缓，经济增速也是适度的。
中期经济前景轮廓同6月时的看法接近，需要耐心等待不利因素逐渐缓和。
就业市场复苏不平衡，复苏状况低于期望，失业率高于可接受的水准。
失业率降至6.5%以下以前不会升息，在2016年后的几年利率可能逐步上升，最终达到4%。
失业率并不是衡量就业市场最关键的数据，目前没有特殊的数据能够完全描述就业市场，希望就业市场全面复苏。
委员会将密切关注通胀水平，多数官员预期通胀会上升，通胀会恢复至2。
如果通胀持续低于目标水准，将放缓加息的决定。
相较于QE，利率政策是更加强大的工具。
财政政策给经济带来消极影响，财政状况令今年经济增长放缓至少一个百分点。
如果因政府行动造成经济放缓，我们必须慎重考虑，最重要的是避免2011年的那种不利情况发生。
委员会认为经济数据还没有强劲到支持缩减QE，即将开展的债务上限争论将给市场带来风险。
在被问及今年放缓购债进度是否仍合适时，伯南克称总的框架还是一样的，即便缩减购债规模，联储仍能通过利率向市场保持宽松的货币政策。
伯南克认为量化宽松政策是有效的，目前就业市场要比一年前好很多，尽管目前效果难以确切评估。
之后的几次会议上委员会将确认经济是否复苏，然后会迈出缩减购债第一步。
缩减购债没有固定时间表。
如果对经济前景的信心增强，可能在今年稍晚行动。
伯南克讲话原稿
For release on delivery3:45 p.m. EDTJune 7, 2011The U.S. Economic OutlookRemarks byBen S. BernankeChairmanBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systemat theInternational Monetary ConferenceAtlanta, GeorgiaJune 7, 2011I would like to thank the organizers for inviting me to participate once again in the International Monetary Conference. I will begin with a brief update on the outlook for the U.S. economy, then discuss recent developments in global commodity markets that are significantly affecting both the U.S. and world economies, and conclude with some thoughts on the prospects for monetary policy.The Outlook for GrowthU.S. economic growth so far this year looks to have been somewhat slower than expected. Aggregate output increased at only 1.8 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, and supply chain disruptions associated with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan are hampering economic activity this quarter. A number of indicators also suggest some loss of momentum in the labor market in recent weeks. We are, of course, monitoring these developments. That said, with the effects of the Japanese disaster on manufacturing output likely to dissipate in coming months, and with some moderation in gasoline prices in prospect, growth seems likely to pick up somewhat in the second half of the year. Overall, the economic recovery appears to be continuing at a moderate pace, albeit at a rate that is both uneven across sectors and frustratingly slow from the perspective of millions of unemployed and underemployed workers.As is often the case, the ability and willingness of households to spend will be an important determinant of the pace at which the economy expands in coming quarters. A range of positive and negative forces is currently influencing both household finances and attitudes. On the positive side, household incomes have been boosted by the net improvement in job market conditions since earlier this year as well as from the reduction in payroll taxes that the Congress passed in December. Increases in household wealth--largely reflecting gains in equity values--and lower debt burdens have also increased consumers’ willingness to spend. On the negative side, households are facing some significant headwinds, including increases in food and energy prices, declining home values, continued tightness in some credit markets, and still-high unemployment, all of which have taken a toll on consumer confidence.Developments in the labor market will be of particular importance in setting the course for household spending. As you know, the jobs situation remains far from normal. For example, aggregate hours of production workers--a comprehensive measure of labor input that reflects the extent of part-time employment and opportunities for overtime as well as the number of people employed--fell, remarkably, by nearly 10 percent from the beginning of the recent recession through October 2009. Although hours of work have increased during the expansion, this measure still remains about 6-1/2 percent below its pre-recession level. For comparison, the maximum decline in aggregate hours worked in the deep 1981-82 recession was less than 6 percent. Other indicators, such as total payroll employment, the ratio of employment to population, and the unemployment rate, paint a similar picture. Particularly concerning is the very high level of long-term unemployment--nearly half of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months. People without work for long periods can find it increasingly difficult to obtain a job comparable to their previous one, as their skills tend to deteriorate over time and as employers are often reluctant to hire the long-term unemployed.Although the jobs market remains quite weak and progress has been uneven, overall we have seen signs of gradual improvement. For example, private-sector payrolls increased at an average rate of about 180,000 per month over the first five months of thisyear, compared with less than 140,000 during the last four months of 2010 and less than 80,000 per month in the four months prior to that. As I noted, however, recent indicators suggest some loss of momentum, with last Friday’s jobs market report showing an increase in private payrolls of just 83,000 in May. I expect hiring to pick up from last month’s pace as growth strengthens in the second half of the year, but, again, the recent data highlight the need to continue monitoring the jobs situation carefully.The business sector generally presents a more upbeat picture. Capital spending on equipment and software has continued to expand, reflecting an improving sales outlook and the need to replace aging capital. Many U.S. firms, notably in manufacturing but also in services, have benefited from the strong growth of demand in foreign markets. Going forward, investment and hiring in the private sector should be facilitated by the ongoing improvement in credit conditions. Larger businesses remain able to finance themselves at historically low interest rates, and corporate balance sheets are strong. Smaller businesses still face difficulties in obtaining credit, but surveys of both banks and borrowers indicate that conditions are slowly improving for those firms as well.In contrast, virtually all segments of the construction industry remain troubled. In the residential sector, low home prices and mortgage rates imply that housing is quite affordable by historical standards; yet, with underwriting standards for home mortgages having tightened considerably, many potential homebuyers are unable to qualify for loans. Uncertainties about job prospects and the future course of house prices have also deterred potential buyers. Given these constraints on the demand for housing, and with a large inventory of vacant and foreclosed properties overhanging the market, construction of new single-family homes has remained at very low levels, and house prices havecontinued to fall. The housing sector typically plays an important role in economic recoveries; the depressed state of housing in the United States is a big reason that the current recovery is less vigorous than we would like.Developments in the public sector also help determine the pace of recovery. Here, too, the picture is one of relative weakness. Fiscally constrained state and local governments continue to cut spending and employment. Moreover, the impetus provided to the growth of final demand by federal fiscal policies continues to wane.The prospect of increasing fiscal drag on the recovery highlights one of the many difficult tradeoffs faced by fiscal policymakers: If the nation is to have a healthy economic future, policymakers urgently need to put the federal government’s finances on a sustainable trajectory. But, on the other hand, a sharp fiscal consolidation focused on the very near term could be self-defeating if it were to undercut the still-fragile recovery. The solution to this dilemma, I believe, lies in recognizing that our nation’s fiscal problems are inherently long-term in nature. Consequently, the appropriate response is to move quickly to enact a credible, long-term plan for fiscal consolidation. By taking decisions today that lead to fiscal consolidation over a longer horizon, policymakers can avoid a sudden fiscal contraction that could put the recovery at risk. At the same time, establishing a credible plan for reducing future deficits now would not only enhance economic performance in the long run, but could also yield near-term benefits by leading to lower long-term interest rates and increased consumer and business confidence.The Outlook for InflationLet me turn to the outlook for inflation. As you all know, over the past year, prices for many commodities have risen sharply, resulting in significantly higherconsumer prices for gasoline and other energy products and, to a somewhat lesser extent, for food. Overall inflation measures reflect these price increases: For example, over the six months through April, the price index for personal consumption expenditures has risen at an annual rate of about 3-1/2 percent, compared with an average of less than 1 percent over the preceding two years.Although the recent increase in inflation is a concern, the appropriate diagnosis and policy response depend on whether the rise in inflation is likely to persist. So far at least, there is not much evidence that inflation is becoming broad-based or ingrained in our economy; indeed, increases in the price of a single product--gasoline--account for the bulk of the recent increase in consumer price inflation.1 Of course, gasoline prices are exceptionally important for both family finances and the broader economy; but the fact that gasoline price increases alone account for so much of the overall increase in inflation suggests that developments in the global market for crude oil and related products, as well as in other commodities markets, are the principal factors behind the recent movements in inflation, rather than factors specific to the U.S. economy. An important implication is that if the prices of energy and other commodities stabilize in ranges near current levels, as futures markets and many forecasters predict, the upward impetus to overall price inflation will wane and the recent increase in inflation will prove transitory. Indeed, the declines in many commodity prices seen over the past few weeks may be an indication that such moderation is occurring. I will discuss commodity prices further momentarily.1 Through April, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation over the previous six months was3.6 percent at an annual rate; excluding gasoline, inflation over that period was 2 percent. Over a 12-month span, inflation through April was 2.2 percent; excluding gasoline, it was 1.2 percent.Besides the prospect of more-stable commodity prices, two other factors suggest that inflation is likely to return to more subdued levels in the medium term. First, the still-substantial slack in U.S. labor and product markets should continue to have a moderating effect on inflationary pressures. Notably, because of the weak demand for labor, wage increases have not kept pace with productivity gains. Thus the level of unit labor costs in the business sector is lower than it was before the recession. Given the large share of labor costs in the production costs of most firms (typically, a share far larger than that of raw materials costs), subdued unit labor costs should remain a restraining influence on inflation. To be clear, I am not arguing that healthy increases in real wages are inconsistent with low inflation; the two are perfectly consistent so long as productivity growth is reasonably strong.The second additional factor restraining inflation is the stability of longer-term inflation expectations. Despite the recent pickup in overall inflation, measures of households’ longer-term inflation expectations from the Michigan survey, the 10-year inflation projections of professional economists, the 5-year-forward measure of inflation compensation derived from yields on inflation-protected securities, and other measures of longer-term inflation expectations have all remained reasonably stable.2 As long as longer-term inflation expectations are stable, increases in global commodity prices are unlikely to be built into domestic wage- and price-setting processes, and they should therefore have only transitory effects on the rate of inflation. That said, the stability of2 In the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, the median reading on expected inflation over the next 5 to 10 years was 2.9 percent in May after having averaged 2.8 percent in 2010. In the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the median projection for PCE inflation over the next 10 years was 2.3 percent in May, up from the 2.1 percent average reading last year. The equivalent SPF projection for CPI inflation was 2.4 percent, versus2.3 percent in 2010. The 5-year forward measure of inflation compensation derived from TIPS stood at about 2-3/4 percent in May, down noticeably from the levels observed toward the end of 2010.inflation expectations is ensured only as long as the commitment of the central bank to low and stable inflation remains credible. Thus, the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations and will take whatever actions are necessary to keep inflation well controlled.Commodity PricesAs I noted earlier, the rise in commodity prices has directly increased the rate of inflation while also adversely affecting consumer confidence and consumer spending. Let’s look at these price increases in closer detail.The basic facts are familiar. Oil prices have risen significantly, with the spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil near $100 per barrel as of the end of last week, up nearly 40 percent from a year ago. Proportionally, prices of corn and wheat have risen even more, roughly doubling over the past year. And prices of industrial metals have increased notably as well, with aluminum and copper prices up about one-third over the past 12 months. When the price of any product moves sharply, the economist’s first instinct is to look for changes in the supply of or demand for that product. And indeed, the recent increase in commodity prices appears largely to be the result of the same factors that drove commodity prices higher throughout much of the past decade: strong gains in global demand that have not been met with commensurate increases in supply.From 2002 to 2008, a period of sustained increases in commodity prices, world economic activity registered its fastest pace of expansion in decades, rising at an average rate of about 4-1/2 percent per year. This impressive performance was led by the emerging and developing economies, where real activity expanded at a remarkable 7percent per annum. The emerging market economies have likewise led the way in the recovery from the global financial crisis: From 2008 to 2010, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose cumulatively by about 10 percent in the emerging market economies even as GDP was essentially unchanged, on net, in the advanced economies.3 Naturally, increased economic activity in emerging market economies has increased global demand for raw materials. Moreover, the heavy emphasis on industrial development in many emerging market economies has led their growth to be particularly intensive in the use of commodities, even as the consumption of commodities in advanced economies has stabilized or declined. For example, world oil consumption rose by 14 percent from 2000 to 2010; underlying this overall trend, however, was a40 percent increase in oil use in emerging market economies and an outright decline of4-1/2 percent in the advanced economies. In particular, U.S. oil consumption was about 2-1/2 percent lower in 2010 than in 2000, with net imports of oil down nearly 10 percent, even though U.S. real GDP rose by nearly 20 percent over that period.This dramatic shift in the sources of demand for commodities is not unique to oil. If anything, the pattern is even more striking for industrial metals, where double-digit percentage rates of decline in consumption by the advanced economies over the past decade have been overwhelmed by triple-digit percentage increases in consumption by the emerging market economies.4 Likewise, improving diets in the emerging market economies have significantly increased their demand for agricultural commodities.3 The GDP data cited here are from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook database. The difference between the advanced and emerging market economies is also evident in the statistics on industrial production, which is perhaps more directly relevant to the demand for commodities. According to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, from March 2009 to March 2010, industrial production rose 26 percent in the emerging market economies and 11 percent in the advanced economies.4 A portion of commodity use in the emerging market economies serves as inputs to the production of exports, some of which are ultimately consumed in advanced economies.Importantly, in noting these facts, I intend no criticism of emerging markets; growth in those economies has conferred substantial economic benefits both within those countries and globally, and in any case, the consumption of raw materials relative to population in emerging-market countries remains substantially lower than in the United States and other advanced economies. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that the tremendous growth in emerging market economies has considerably increased global demand for commodities in recent years.Against this backdrop of extremely robust growth in demand, the supply of many commodities has lagged behind. For example, world oil production has increased less than 1 percent per year since 2004, compared with nearly 2 percent per year in the prior decade. In part, the slower increase in the supply of oil reflected disappointing rates of production in countries that are not part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). However, OPEC has not shown much willingness to ramp up production, either. Most recently, OPEC production fell 1.3 million barrels per day from January to April of this year, reflecting the disruption to Libyan supplies and the lack of any significant offset from other OPEC producers. Indeed, OPEC’s production of oil today remains about 3 million barrels per day below the peak level of mid-2008. With the demand for oil rising rapidly and the supply of crude stagnant, increases in oil prices are hardly a puzzle.Production shortfalls have plagued many other commodities as well. Agricultural output has been hard hit by a spate of bad weather around the globe. For example, last summer’s drought in Russia severely reduced that country’s wheat crop. In the United States, high temperatures significantly impaired the U.S. corn crop last fall, and dryconditions are currently hurting the wheat crop in Kansas. Over the past year, droughts have also afflicted Argentina, China, and France. Fortunately, the lag between planting and harvesting for many crops is relatively short; thus, if more-typical weather patterns resume, supplies of agricultural commodities should rebound, thereby reducing the pressure on prices.Not all commodity prices have increased, illustrating the point that supply and demand conditions can vary across markets. For example, prices for both lumber and natural gas are currently near their levels of the early 2000s. The demand for lumber has been curtailed by weakness in the U.S. construction sector, while the supply of natural gas in the United States has been increased by significant innovations in extraction techniques.5 Among agricultural commodities, rice prices have remained relatively subdued, reflecting favorable growing conditions.In all, these cases reinforce the view that the fundamentals of global supply and demand have been playing a central role in recent swings in commodity prices. That said, there is usually significant uncertainty about current and prospective supply and demand. Accordingly, commodity prices, like the prices of financial assets, can be volatile as market participants react to incoming news. Recently, commodity prices seem to have been particularly responsive to news bearing on the prospects for global economic growth as well as geopolitical developments.As the rapid growth of emerging market economies seems likely to continue, should we therefore expect continued rapid increases in the prices of globally-traded commodities? While it is certainly possible that we will see further increases, there are 5 As natural gas is difficult to transport overseas, the increased supplies of natural gas in North America have not translated into significantly lower prices abroad. In the first quarter of 2011, natural gas prices in the United States were less than half of those in Germany.good reasons to believe that commodity prices will not continue to rise at the rapid rates we have seen recently. In the short run, unexpected shortfalls in the supplies of key commodities result in sharp price increases, as usage patterns and available supplies are difficult to change quickly. Over longer periods, however, high levels of commodity prices curtail demand as households and firms adjust their spending and production patterns. Indeed, as I noted earlier, we have already seen significant reductions in commodity use in the advanced economies. Likewise, over time, high prices should elicit meaningful increases in supply, both as temporary factors, such as adverse weather, abate and as investments in productive capacity come to fruition. Finally, because expectations of higher prices lead financial market participants to bid up the spot prices of commodities, predictable future developments bearing on the demands for and supplies of commodities tend already to be reflected in current prices. For these reasons, although unexpected developments could certainly lead to continued volatility in global commodity prices, it is reasonable to expect the effects of commodity prices on overall inflation to be relatively moderate in the medium term.While supply and demand fundamentals surely account for most of the recent movements in commodity prices, some observers have attributed a significant portion of the run-up in prices to Federal Reserve policies, over and above the effects of those policies on U.S. economic growth. For example, some have argued that accommodative U.S. monetary policy has driven down the foreign exchange value of the dollar, thereby boosting the dollar price of commodities. Indeed, since February 2009, the trade-weighted dollar has fallen by about 15 percent. However, since February 2009, oil prices have risen 160 percent and nonfuel commodity prices are up by about 80 percent,implying that the dollar’s decline can explain, at most, only a small part of the rise in oil and other commodity prices; indeed, commodity prices have risen dramatically when measured in terms of any of the world’s major currencies, not just the dollar. But even this calculation overstates the role of monetary policy, as many factors other than monetary policy affect the value of the dollar. For example, the decline in the dollar since February 2009 that I just noted followed a comparable increase in the dollar, which largely reflected flight-to-safety flows triggered by the financial crisis in the latter half of 2008; the dollar’s decline since then in substantial part reflects the reversal of those flows as the crisis eased. Slow growth in the United States and a persistent trade deficit are additional, more fundamental sources of recent declines in the dollar’s value; in particular, as the United States is a major oil importer, any geopolitical or other shock that increases the global price of oil will worsen our trade balance and economic outlook, which tends to depress the dollar. In this case, the direction of causality runs from commodity prices to the dollar rather than the other way around. The best way for the Federal Reserve to support the fundamental value of the dollar in the medium term is to pursue our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, and we will certainly do that.Another argument that has been made is that low interest rates have pushed up commodity prices by reducing the cost of holding inventories, thus boosting commodity demand, or by encouraging speculators to push commodity futures prices above their fundamental levels. In either case, if such forces were driving commodity prices materially and persistently higher, we should see corresponding increases in commodity inventories, as higher prices curtailed consumption and boosted production relative totheir fundamental levels. In fact, inventories of most commodities have not shown sizable increases over the past year as prices rose; indeed, increases in prices have often been associated with lower rather than higher levels of inventories, likely reflecting strong demand or weak supply that tends to put pressure on available stocks.Finally, some have suggested that very low interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies have created risks of economic overheating in emerging market economies and have thus indirectly put upward pressures on commodity prices. In fact, most of the recent rapid economic growth in emerging market economies appears to reflect a bounceback from the previous recession and continuing increases in productive capacity, as their technologies and capital stocks catch up with those in advanced economies, rather than being primarily the result of monetary conditions in those countries. More fundamentally, however, whatever the source of the recent growth in the emerging markets, the authorities in those economies clearly have a range of fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and other tools that can be used to address any overheating that may occur. As in all countries, the primary objective of monetary policy in the United States should be to promote economic growth and price stability at home, which in turn supports a stable global economic and financial environment.Monetary PolicyLet me conclude with a few words about the current stance of monetary policy. As I have discussed today, the economic recovery in the United States appears to be proceeding at a moderate pace and--notwithstanding unevenness in the rate of progress and some recent signs of reduced momentum--the labor market has been gradually improving. At the same time, the jobs situation remains far from normal, withunemployment remaining elevated. Inflation has risen lately but should moderate, assuming that commodity prices stabilize and that, as I expect, longer-term inflation expectations remain stable.Against this backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained a highly accommodative monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate close to zero and further easing monetary conditions through large-scale asset purchases. The FOMC has indicated that it will complete its purchases of $600 billion of Treasury securities by the end of this month while maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee also continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.The U.S. economy is recovering from both the worst financial crisis and the most severe housing bust since the Great Depression, and it faces additional headwinds ranging from the effects of the Japanese disaster to global pressures in commodity markets. In this context, monetary policy cannot be a panacea. Still, the Federal Reserve’s actions in recent years have doubtless helped stabilize the financial system, ease credit and financial conditions, guard against deflation, and promote economic recovery. All of this has been accomplished, I should note, at no net cost to the federal budget or to the U.S. taxpayer.Although it is moving in the right direction, the economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established. At the same time, the longer-run health of the economyrequires that the Federal Reserve be vigilant in preserving its hard-won credibility for maintaining price stability. As I have explained, most FOMC participants currently see the recent increase in inflation as transitory and expect inflation to remain subdued in the medium term. Should that forecast prove wrong, however, and particularly if signs were to emerge that inflation was becoming more broadly based or that longer-term inflation expectations were becoming less well anchored, the Committee would respond as necessary. Under all circumstances, our policy actions will be guided by the objectives of supporting the recovery in output and employment while helping ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate.。
我们从伯南克这两日的讲话中了解到什么
我们从伯南克这两日的讲话中了解到什么外汇通7月19日讯--美联储主席伯南克(BenBernanke)向市场发出了这样一个信息，即美联储倾向于今年晚些时候缩减每月850亿美元的购债规模了。
康百士银行(BBVACompass)首席经济学家NathanielKarp表示，"美联储的底线是：第三轮量化宽松(QE3)时间表将保持不变，今年晚些时候将公布缩减QE。
"分析师称，伯南克向市场提供的药物上涂满了糖。
摩根士丹利(MorganStanley)首席美国经济学家VincentReinhardt表示，"美联储倾尽全力，给药物制作了鸽派味道浓厚的包装。
"在伯南克发表证词的过程中，股市攀升，债市也继续从近期的抛售中恢复健康。
Reinhardt 称，市场对于伯南克讲话反应平淡的部分原因为美联储重复传递信息。
Reinhardt认为，"美联储倾向于维持宽松政策很长一段时间，但没有看到增加宽松规模的需求，因此他们想要看到缩减QE。
除非美联储的计划偏离轨道，否则其将于9月缩减购债。
"今年二季度的经济动能有点疲软，目前对二季度GDP增速的预估为接近1%，而一季度GDP 增长1.8%。
但是，德意志银行(DeutscheBank)首席美国经济学家JosephLavorgna指出，"政策制定者在九月会议之前，将观察许多经济数据，包括两次非农就业报告，因此二季度GDP数据未必决定QE命运。
"并不是所有的经济学家都认为今年将缩减QE。
IHS环球透视(IHSGlobalInsight)的PaulEdelstein认为，伯南克意在平衡鸽派和鹰派评论，而且他坚持其做出的有60%的概率美联储将到2014年初才缩减QE的预测。
Edelstein补充道，今年剩余时间里失业率很可能仍旧徘徊在目前的7.6%的水平附近。
如果真是这样，美联储还需要等一等。
多空双方各有支撑“伯南克最新讲话并没有太多新内容，但其传递出一个最大的信息就是灵活。
2012年6月7日伯南克讲话解读
在令人失望的美国就业数据及持续对欧元危机感到担忧之际，伯南克将于北京时间周四22:00在国会联合经济委员会上出席作证。
本报告将从伯南克其人入手，结合近期金融事件对伯南克在国会听证会上的言论作出预测，并对行情的操作提出相应建议。
一、伯南克其人伯南克是美联储主席，其一举一动一言一行受人瞩目，尤其在美联储货币政策上有绝对的发言权。
前几年，伯南克被市场人士冠名为黄金之友，因为其讲话均会给市场带来重大行情，尤其前两年，由于其不断强调量化宽松政策，成就了黄金上行之势。
伯南克的另一个外号叫“直升机”，因为他曾宣称必要时愿意站在直升机上撒钞票来救经济。
毫不夸张地说，作为世界上最有权力央行的掌门人，57岁的伯南克在全球任何一份评选全球最具影响力的金融决策者的榜单上数一数二。
二、今年前七次讲话引发行情震荡伯南克在2012年上半年发表讲话7次，基本都提及美国经济现状和美联储货币政策，除去国内休市一次，4次都带来较大的操作机会，平均每次270点行情。
其中今年2月29日引发黄金暴跌100美金，天通银下跌600点就是其经典杰作。
三、前期市场重点数据回顾：1、美国劳工部上周五(6月1日)公布的数据显示，美国5月非农就业人数增幅远不及预期，仅录得单位数增长，失业率有所回升，且非农前值大幅下修，暗示美国就业市场的回暖态势惨遭终结。
5月季调后非农就业人口上升6.9万，远不及预期的上升15.0万。
与此同时，美国5月失业率回升至8.2%，前值未作修正，仍为8.1%。
美国5月失业率为近一年以来首度走高。
自去年8月以来，美国失业率便持续大幅下滑，从当( )时的9.1%最低降至8.1%。
美国劳动力市场复苏乏力为该国经济蒙上阴影，也令美联储第三轮量化宽松的预期有所升温。
2、美联储最新发布的褐皮书表示，美国经济从4月初至5月底以温和速度增长。
之前的褐皮书称在2月中至3月底以温和至缓慢的速度增长。
联储对经济的看法更为乐观，美元一度支撑，打压黄金走软。
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伯南克讲话前
国际货币基金组织发言人称西班牙未发出援助申请，后者持续保持死扛模式令市场对该国的担忧情绪升温，黄金跟随欧元走低，但跌势有限。
美联储主席伯南克曾在2010年8月份利用这一年会，对外表达了美联储实施第二轮量化宽松(QE2)的意图。
随后美联储在2010年11月份宣布，将再次实施6000亿美元的“量化宽松”计划，即所谓的QE2。
眼下投资者将关注周五(8月31日)的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，虽然欧洲央行行长德拉基因公务繁忙而缺席此次会议，但美联储主席伯南克关于未来货币政策前景的讲话将成为核心焦点。
汇丰银行周四(8月30日)表示，在今年年初的下滑之后，一系列资产再度显示出更大的关联性。
由于多数资产受到风险的控制，目前对于多数市场
难以发表方向性的观点。
但黄金和白银是例外，包括黄金和白银在内的许多资产既不明显“追逐风险”也不“避险”，这会增加金银对于投资经理的吸引力，最终带来上涨势头。
美国7月个人收入月率上涨0.3%，和预期一致，前值为0.5%，7月个人消费支出月率上涨0.4%，亦符合预期；美国7月个人消费支出物价指数年率上涨1.3%，预期为1.4%，7月核心个人消费支出物价指数年率为1.6%，预期为1.7%；美国上周初请失业金人数为37.4万，高于预期的37万，续请失业金人数为331.6万，也高于预期的330.7万。
美国原油周四(8月30日)收盘下跌，石油公司正在评估飓风艾萨克造成的损害，而布伦特原油在交投震荡中上涨，因供应忧虑及地缘政治紧张局势提供了支持。
全球最大的黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust表示，其截至2012年8月31日止持仓量维持在1289.52吨水平，上一交易日没有增减持仓量。
说明该机构对后市金价走势持观望态度。
全球最大的白银上市交易基金表示，其截至2012年8月31日止白银持仓量维持在9763.53吨水平，上一交易日没有增减持仓量。
说明该机构对后市银价走势持观望态度。
综合来看，黄金在经历此前的持续上涨后面临回调，这并不令人感到意外。
再者，市场对美联储推出新一轮量化宽松的预期有所降温，这也打压金价。
投资者将关注今天的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，虽然欧洲央行行长德拉基因公务繁忙而缺席此次会议，但美联储主席伯南克关于未来货币政策前景的讲话将成为核心焦点。
届时或将对金银构成相对指引，我们拭目以待。