模联mpc新闻报道

Skin in the game--joint investment, shared burden SHANGHAI, April, 13th, (MENA)ChinaThe crux of the current global imbalance, from the point of China’s view, is that only a minority of the most advanced countries possess the knowledge, innovation and flourishing service sectors that will enable them to enjoy strong economic and financial prospects. These same countries are also the world’s largest debtors. Meanwhile, the overwhelming majority of developing countries suffer a shortage of capital. This, at root, is the origin of the recent financial crisis.But even mong the giants, China is in a league of itsown, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, acurrent-account surplus, little connection to foreignbanks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room toboost spending, China still expressed concern on someother countries which suffer more during the financialcrisis.Except for the typical suggestions such as more detailedregulations, strengthened supervision, tightercollaboration, the core call of China is the establishmentof a diversified international monetary system. In fact,multiple currencies can not only ease the dilemma of financial situation, but can also weaken their rivals to some extent.In order to achieve such a tough goal, China advocated creating an international reserve currency that decoupled from a sovereign state, and able to keep its value long-term stability, and apart from this, China strongly suggested expanding the using range of the international monetary fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRS). However, the topic of SDRs has been controversial during three sessions even most countries have already reached a general consensus.On the contrary, China poised a quite optimistic attitude to SDRs. The value of the SDR is based on a basket of currencies (the dollar, euro, yen and pound) that might expand one day to include the yuan, which obviously will be a good news for China. But MENA holds the view that, if the Chinese want the yuan included in the SDR, they will probably have to liberalise their capital account first. That would be welcome in itself—as a shrewd lawyer would no doubt be as quick to point out as a sharp economist. Have the Chinese really considered the sacrifice that it will make, or they just regard it as a path to the refining of not only Chinese financial systems butalso the global ones?USAThough the financial crisis was global, it originated inAmerica’s uniquely fragmented financial system,overseen by a patchwork of federal and state regulators.Since recession ended in June 2009, GDP growth hasaveraged 2.8%, roughly its long-term trend. After so deepa slump, the pace is usually much faster. The gap betweenactual and potential GDP has been stuck at around 5%since late 2009 (see chart 1). From some angles, thepicture is even worse. Measured by totting up incomerather than spending, the economy is no bigger than in2006. The proportion of working-age people with jobs is lower than in the trough of the recession.A little to surprise, USA agreed with the proposal of SDRs. In fact, the dollar system is so beneficial to the USA that it will never abandon it. First, the reserve-currency status of the dollar helped to create global imbalances. Surplus countries have little choice but to place most of their spare funds in the reserve currency since it is used to settle trade and has the most liquid bond market. But this allowed America’s borrowing binge and housing bubble to persist for longer than it otherwise would have. Second, the country that issues the reserve currency faces a trade-off between domestic and international stability. Massive money-printing by the Fed to support the economy makes sense from a national perspective, but it may harm the dollar’s value.The explanation by the USA delegate is so selfless that it is almost willing to sacrifice itself for the sake of the stability of the global finance. MENA can’t help to doubt what’s the meaning of presence of US delegate.JapanSeen as lesson to be drawn byEuropean countries, Japansuccessfully showed the world how tostop oneself from more efficientdevelopment in the economic field.Actually, there is no financial crisis inJapan but a real economic crisis, taking a terrible toll on real economy, especiallyexport businesse s. After struggling out of its “lost ten years”, Japan had nothing to fight such a storm.In spite of great losses in real economy, Japan’s financial systems and social structure have not changed, the competence of businesses and the country itself either. With its stable financial systems, Japan is very likely to recover from present waning and further its development.Japan Government asserts that government is the core of prevention mechanism.Japan also advocates that governments should attach importance to fiscal stimulus,strengthening the governmental supervision of finance, both financial derivatives and credit rating agencies and setting up an affiliated institution for those rating agencies involved in the supervisory colleges. Japan appeals to enlarge the capital scale of IMF and other international financial institutions to assist vulnerable emerging economies and countries undergoing financial crisis.While since there are already rating agencies, MENA cannot see any necessity to setting another one, affiliated included. But Japan really has its outstanding mechanism on honest financial, and that could be point to be emphasized and what other countries can learn from.Japan is more willing to wait and see how could the DR serve its interests, but we can be sure that Japan will drag in the mud for a period in the near future.IndonesiaIndonesia suffered during the financial crisis due to its fragile economic structure, so it appealed to Strengthen the supervision of international financial system. No mater developed or developing countries must control their endless desire for fortune to build a benign international financial environment and willing to strengthen the supervision of international financial system.However, MENA thinks that Indonesia should also pay enough attention to domestic stability as a basis of healthy finance.Joint investment, shared burden can be the terminal goal of this G20 conference, but whether it will be a mere banner or a reality, that remains a doubt.Editor: XU Bingchun。