风险管理与保险——总结

Risk Management and InsuranceChapter 1 Introduction to Risk4. Differentiate between a peril（风险事件）and a hazard（风险因素）and give an example of each. (P9)A peril is a specific contingency（意外事件）that may cause loss.Examples of perils include fire, windstorm（暴风）, collision（冲突）, war, etc.A hazard is a condition or situation that makes it more likely that a peril will occur.Examples of hazards include oily rags（油布）, icy roads, a dishonest employee, a careless driver, etc. Hazards include:⏹Physical hazards（物质风险因素）, like ice on the sidewalks, smoking, or skydiving;⏹Moral hazards（道德风险因素）(most of which are avoidable), like dishonesty (such as burningdown the warehouse（仓库）when your company goes bankrupt（破产）to collect insurance money or buying insurance on someone with yourself as beneficiary（受益人）and then killing them);⏹Morale hazards（心理/行为风险因素）, like a careless attitude since “insurance will pay for it” .5. Classify each of the following hazards as physical, morale, or moral. (P9-10)a. A careless driver;b. A person who suffers an exaggerated（夸张的）case of whiplash（脖子扭伤）following an automobileaccident;c. A worker who occasionally leaves a dangerous machine unattended to talk with friends;d.An employee who occasionally embezzles（挪用）money;e.Icy road conditions.a: Morale; b: Moral; c: Morale; d: Moral; e: Physical.6.Define（定义）risk management and identify（识别、确定）the four steps in the risk management process. How does enterprise（企业）risk management differ from the traditional form of risk management?（P13.10）Risk management is the process used to systematically（系统地）manage exposures to pure risk. The four steps in the process are ①identify risks, ②evaluate risks, ③select risk management techniques, and ④implement（执行、实施）and review decisions.Traditionally, risk management has dealt primarily（首要地）with pure risks. Enterprise risk management considers all of an entity’s risks（实体风险）together, both pure and speculative（投机的）.8. ABC Company owns 10,000 cars and has determined that it is very likely to suffer between 60 and 70 collision losses this year. XYZ Company also owns 10,000 cars and has determined that it is likely to experience 50 to 80 collision losses this year. Compute the degree of risk for each company, assuming that the companies expect to suffer 65 losses each. (P11)Risk ABC=(70－60)/65=15% Risk XYZ=(80－50)/65=46%11. Company A owns 100 buildings and averages 2 fires per year. Company B owns 1,000 buildings and averages 30 fires a year. Company A never experiences more than 3 fires a year, although in some years there are none. In some years Company B has as many as 36 fires but never has fewer than 24. Who is faced with the greater objective risk? Who has the greater chance of loss? Explain. (P11) Risk A=(3－0)/2=150% Risk B=(36－24)/30=40%A is faced with the greater objective risk;Probability A=2/100=0.02 Probability B=30/1000=0.03B has the greater chance of loss.Chapter 2 Risk Identification（识别）and Evaluation（评估）1. List and briefly describe three methods of identifying risks. (P16-18)One method uses loss exposure checklists（遭损风险核对表）that list various specific sources of loss. Another is the financial statement（财务报表分析）method that involves analyzing each item on a firm’s income statement（损益表）and balance sheet（资产负债表）regarding risks that may be present.A third method uses flowcharts（流程图）to map out the physical flow of goods. Flowcharts can be analyzed with respect to（关于，对于）the types of risks that may affect goods at each point.5. PTY Company has experienced the following numbers of losses in the past 10 years: 3, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0, 2, 2, 3, 3. Calculate the mean, median, mode, variance （方差）, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation for this loss experience. (P20-23)Mean （average 平均值）: (3+4+3+3+1+0+2+2+3+3)/10=24/10=2.4Median （中值）: 3 (Median is the midpoint in a range of measurements.)0 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 (the average of the middle double 3)Mode （众数）: 3 (Mode is the value of the variable that occurs most often in a frequency distribution.) Variance （方差）:[(3－2.4)2+(4－2.4)2+(3－2.4)2+(3－2.4)2+(1－2.4)2+(0－2.4)2+(2－2.4)2+(2－2.4)2+(3－2.4)2+(3－2.4)2]/10=1.24Standard deviation （标准差）Coefficient of variation （差异系数standard deviation/mean ）: (1.11/2.4)×100%=46.25%6. MDC Corporation ’s losses are assumed （假定）to be distributed normally （正态分布）, with a mean of $10,000 and a standard deviation （标准差）of $2,000. Calculate the probable range of losses, given that the MDC risk manager desires 99 percent confidence in the estimate （估计）. How would the range change if only 95 percent confidence was needed ？ (P23-24)About 99% of all observations should be within 3 standard deviations of the mean.Range of the losses: mean ±3 standard deviations=$10,000±3×2,000=$4,000~16,000About 95% of all observations should be within 2 standard deviations of the mean.Range of the losses: mean ±2 standard deviations=$10,000±2×2,000=$6,000~14,0008. QAZ Company owns a fleet of （一队…）100 automobiles, for which the probability （概率）of loss is approximately （大约）equal to 0.05. Use the Poisson distribution （泊松分布）to estimate the probability that QAZ will suffer two or fewer auto accidents next year. (P24)Number of exposure units = 100Probability of loss = 0.05Chapter 3 Property and Liability Loss Exposures3. What types of losses do bodily injury liability （责任）and personal injury liability cover? (P36-37) Bodily injury （身体伤害）: medical services （医疗服务）, loss of income （收入损失）, rehabilitation costs （康复支出）, loss of services, pain and suffering damages （疼痛和痛苦赔偿）, punitive damages （惩罚性赔偿）, etc.Personal injury （人身伤害）: libel （中伤）, slander （诽谤）, invasion of privacy （侵犯个人隐私）, false arrest （非法拘留）, etc.10. The owners of a swimming beach were sued （要求）by the parents of a boy who drowned when he swam into deep water and the lifeguard failed to reach him in time to save him. The plaintiffs （原告）argued that the defendant （被告）beach owners should have had more lifeguards （救生员）. The defendants tried to prove that they had enough guards for normal needs and that boy was guilty of （是…的过错）contributory negligence （共同过失）in swimming out into deep water, which, rather than the absence of a sufficient （足够的）number of lifeguards, was the cause of his death (Spiegel v silver Beach Enterprises, 6 CCH Neg. 2d 874). (P38-39、P47)!r m m e p r -=a. Decide who should win this case. Why?b. How does this case illustrate（阐明）the basic requirements of a negligent act（疏忽行为）?a. The defendant won the case because the plaintiff failed to establish proximate cause（建立近因）.b. The case admirably（极好地）illustrates（阐明）that there must be a direct connection between some negligent act and the cause of death, accident, or injury. Even if there had been a lifeguard handy（便利的）, his or her presence would not necessarily have saved the boy’s life. The case also illustrates assumption of risk（承担风险）.Chapter 4 Life, Health, and Loss of Income Exposures2. Give two examples of business-related premature death exposures. (P58)①The death of a key employee who performs services that would be especially hard to replace.This death may cause the delay（延期）or abandonment（放弃）of some of the firm’s projects. T he death of a key employee may also cause extra costs for replacement and training and might result in the loss of customers.②The death of a person with an ownership interest（所有权权益）in the business.This death could cause ownership to pass to undesirable（不良的）beneficiaries（受益人）who could harm the value of the ownership interests of the surviving（健在的）owners and the estate（财产）of the deceased owner（死者业主）.Chapter 5 Risk Management Techniques: Noninsurance Methods2. Suppose that XYZ Corporation owns 25 warehouse（仓库）. Explain how XYZ can use frequency-reduction（减少频数）and severity-reduction（降低严重程度）techniques to control fire losses with respect to（对于、关于）its warehouses. (P77)Frequency reduction involves an attempt to reduce the probability that a loss will occur. For instance, XYZ Corporation could institute a fire safety program designed to educate warehouse employees to be on the alert for fire hazards within the warehouses.Severity reduction involves methods of reducing the magnitude of a loss. XYZ Corporation could install fire extinguishers（灭火器）at various locations within the warehouses in an attempt to ensure that small fires are extinguished（熄灭）before they spread. Separation involves making certain that needed goods are not all stored in the same location so that all of the goods will not be destroyed in one occurrence（事件）. XYZ Corporation could make certain that needed supplies（物资）are not all stored in the same warehouse.4. What are the general categories of costs and benefits that firms might consider in analyzing potential investments in loss control? (P78)Some categories are (1) repair or replacement（替换）of damaged property, (2) income losses due to destruction of property, (3) extra costs to maintain operations（运营）following a loss, (4) adverse liability judgments（不良责任判断）, (5) medical costs to treat injuries, and (6) income losses due to deaths or disabilities.Costs: Installation（安装）and maintenance（维护）expenses; Ongoing expenses（日常开支）.19. The Great Lakes Recreational Area（北美五大湖休闲区）encompasses（包围，环绕）several waterfront activities（滨水活动）, including swimming, boating, and fishing. It has a history of numerous（许多的）injuries to its employees as well as to its patrons（老顾客）. Explain how the Heinrich domino theory（海因里希多米诺理论）can be used to analyze potential loss control measures （损失控制措施）that might be useful for Great Lakes to consider. (P77)The Heinrich theory states that employee accidents can be viewed as a five-step process: (1) heredity（遗传）and social environment, which causes persons to behave in a particular manner（以特定的方式）; (2) personal fault, which is the failure of individuals to respond appropriately（恰当地）in a given situation; (3) an unsafe act or the existence of a physical hazard; (4) the accident; and (5) the injury that results. Great Lakes can take action in the first step by keeping records or reviewing industry averages on which type of employees seem to cause the most accidents and instituting（开始，制定）training for all employees. This training will hopefully have an effect on the second step as well. Most of the focus should be on stepthree by removing or reducing unsafe conditions or acts. If there are a number of slips（滑坡）and falls, Great Lakes can put down non-slip flooring（防滑地板）in critical areas（临界区域）. If there are a number of boating accidents, drug testing（药物检测）and safe boating procedures（规程）could be implemented （执行、贯彻）. Training on the care of injured persons would follow from the last step.Chapter 6 Insurance as a Risk Management Technique: Principles11. Name the requisites of insurable risk（可保风险的必要条件）from the standpoint of (a) the insurer （保险公司）and (b) the insured（投保人）. (P97-101、P110.6、7)(a) Large number of similar objects;（大量同质的保险对象）Accidental（意外的）and unintentional（非故意的）loss;Determinable（可决定的）and measurable（可测定的）loss;Loss not subject to catastrophic（灾害性的）hazard.(b) Large Loss——Sufficiently（充足地）severe（严重）so as to cause financial hardship（经济困难）;Probability of loss must not be too high.18. It has been suggested that the following risks are uninsurable（不可予以保险的）. For each risk, indicate（指出）whether you agree or disagree and why. (P97-101)a.Risk of punitive damages（惩罚性赔偿）awarded to punish and to deter the wrongdoer（违法者）fromrepeating actions that cause a loss.b.Risk of loss through an economic depression.（经济萧条）c.Risk that trade secrets of a firm might be stolen, thus causing the firm the loss of potential profits therefrom.d.Risk from loss of market that is captured（被占领）by a competitor with a better product.e.Risk that a rezoning（再分区规划）or a shift（转移、变化）of population will reduce the value of alocation owned by a firm for marketing purposes.a. Disagree. In many cases, punitive damages stem from（起源于）an accidental occurrence（意外事件）that was unintended by the insured, and hence（因此）, should be covered by liability insurance.b. Not insurable privately（私人地）because it is subject to（属于）catastrophic（灾难性的）loss, lack of agreement on how to measure, and unpredictability（不可预测的）. But, alleviative measures（缓和措施）by government, unemployment insurance payments（失业保险赔偿）, diversification（分散投资）of industry, and other measures have been used to combat（对抗）losses caused by economic depression.c. Probably not insurable, at least directly. Theft（盗窃）coverage（覆盖）for definable property is available, of course, but the loss by trade secret theft would be hard to define, estimate（估计）, and predict （预测）.d. Similar comment to part c.e. Similar comment to part c.In parts c, d, and e, the loss would have to be handled（处理）through methods other than insurance. Loss control, risk transfer, and diversification are all possible to mitigate（减缓）or prevent the possible loss.。