090110717 董琳 The Results of Oil Price’s Increase
2018年考研英语阅读材料之油价下跌 是赚是赔
2018年考研英语阅读材料之油价下跌是赚是赔Cheaper oil油价下跌Winners and losers赚了还是赔了?America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices;its most strident critics don't美国及其盟友将从油价下跌中获益;最为毒舌的批评者们却不能如此IN EARL Y October the IMF looked at what might happen to the world economy if conflict in Iraqcaused an oil-price shock. Fighters from Islamic State (IS) were pushing into the country'snorth and the fund worried about a sharp price rise, of 20% in a year. Global GDP would fall by0.5-1.5%, it concluded. Equity prices in rich countries would decline by 3-7%, and inflationwould be at least half a point higher.十月初，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预估了一旦伊拉克冲突导致油价震荡会带来怎样的后果。
伊斯兰国(IS)的武装分子在向该国北部进军时，IMF担心今年油价可能会猛增约20%。
它还估计今年全球GDP增速可能会下滑0.5%至1.5%。
富裕国家的股价跌幅可能会达到3%至7%，而通胀率可能至少会上浮0.5个百分点。
IS is still advancing.Russia, the world's third-biggest producer, is embroiledinUkraine.Iraq,Syria,Nigeria and Libya, oil producers all, are in turmoil. But the price of Brentcrude fell over 25% from 115 abarrel in mid-June to under 85 inmid-October, before recoveringa little. Such a shift has global consequences. Who are the winners and losers?IS仍在继续进军。
(完整版)内部控制英文文献目录
内部控制英文文献目录1. 内部控制管制对盈余质量的影响：来自德国的证据( March 2008 )The effect of internal control regulation on earnings quality: Evidence from Germany2. 内部控制制度如何影响财务报告？( Altamuro ，June 24, 2009)How Does Internal Control Regulation Affect Financial Reporting3. 财务报告内部控制缺陷的决定因素( Doyle ，May 15, 2006)Determinants of weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting4. 应计质量与财务报告内部控制( Doyle，January 24, 2007)Accruals Quality and Internal Control over Financial Reporting5. SOX 内部控制缺陷对公司风险与权益资本成本的影响( Ashbaugh-Skaife ，June 10, 2008) The Effect of SOX Internal Control Deficiencies on Firm Risk and Cost of Equity6. 审计委员会质量、审计师独立性与内部控制缺陷( Zhang)Audit Committee Quality, Auditor Independence, and Internal Control Weaknesses7. 小企业受益于内部控制缺陷审计师认证吗Do Small Firms Benefit from Auditor Attestation of Internal Control Effectiveness8. 内部控制缺陷的决定因素( Jahmani)Determinants of Internal Control Weaknesses In Accelerated Filers9. 操控性应计项目能帮助区分内部控制缺陷和欺诈吗Do Discretionary Accruals Help Distinguish between Internal Control Weaknesses and Fraud10. 财务报告质量对债务契约的影响：来自内部控制缺陷报告的证据 ( Costello ，September 4, 2010) The impact of financial reporting quality on debt contracting: Evidence from internal control weakness reports11. 重大内部控制缺陷与盈余管理Material Internal Control Weaknesses and Earnings Management in the Post-SOX Environment12. 家族企业的内部控制( April 2013 )Internal Controls in Family-Owned Firms ()13. 内部控制质量对企业并购绩效的影响研究Study on the Impact of the Quality of Internal Control on the Performance of M&A14. 内部控制质量与信用违约互换利差( January 2014)Internal Control Quality and Credit Default Swap Spreads15. 家族企业内部控制：特征和后果Internal Control in Family Firms: Characteristics and Consequences16. 内部控制报告与会计信息质量：洞察”遵守或解释的“内部控制制度Internal control reporting and accounting quality ：Insight "comply-or-explain" internal control regime17. 内部控制报告与会计稳健性Internal Control Reporting and Accounting Conservatism18. 会计信息质量影响产品市场契约吗？来自政府合同授予的证据( March 2014 )Does Accounting Quality Influence Product Market Contracting? Evidence from Government Contract Awards19. 公司特征与财务报告质量：尼日利亚制造业上市公司的证据20. 内部控制情况与专家审计师选择The Association between Internal Control Situations and Specialist Auditor Choices21. 审计费用反应了控制风险的风险溢价吗( 2013-07 )Do Audit Fees Reflect Risk Premiums for Control Risk?22. 内部控制质量与审计定价Internal Control Quality and Audit Pricing under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act23. 内部控制缺陷与权益资本成本：来自萨班斯法案404 节披露的证据Internal Control Weakness and Cost of Equity: Evidence from SOX Section 404 Disclosures24. 内部控制缺陷与信息不确定性Internal Control Weaknesses and Information Uncertainty25. 重大内部控制缺陷与股票价格崩溃危险：来自404 条款披露的证据( May 2013 )Material Weaknessin Internal Control and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from SOX Section 404 Disclosure 26. SOX 内部控制缺陷对公司风险与权益资本成本的影响The Effect of SOX Internal Control Deficiencies on Firm Risk and Cost of Equity27. 信用评级、债务成本与内部控制信息披露：SOX302 和SOX404 法的比较28. 萨班斯-奥克斯利法案对会计信息债务契约价值的影响The Effect of Sarbanes-Oxley on the Debt Contracting Value of Accounting Information29. 财务报告内部控制的不利意见与审计师解聘/辞职Adverse Internal Control over Financial Reporting Opinions and Auditor Dismissals/Resignations30. 新管理人员任命与随后的SOX 法案404 的意见Appointment of New Executives and Subsequent SOX 404 Opinion31. 萨班斯奥克斯利：有关萨班斯法案404 影响的证据Sarbanes-Oxley: The Evidence Regarding the Impact of Sox 40432. 内部控制有效性自愿披露的经济决定因素及后果：从首次公开发行的证据( March 2013 ) Economic Determinants and Consequences of Voluntary Disclosure of Internal Control Effectiveness: Evidence from Initial Public Offerings33. 非营利组织中内部控制问题的原因和后果The Causes and Consequences of Internal Control Problems in Nonprofit Organizations34. SOX 内部控制披露在公司控制权市场中的价值The Value of SOX Internal Control Disclosures in the Market for Corporate Control35. 内部控制缺陷与销售、一般的及行政费用的非对称性行为Internal Control Weakness and the Asymmetrical Behavior of Selling, General, and Administrative Costs36. 内部控制缺陷及补救措施披露对投资者感知的盈余质量的影响The Impact of Disclosures of Internal Control Weaknesses and Remediation on Investor-Perceived Earnings Quality37. 内部控制缺陷与美国上市的中国公司与美国公司的审计师SOX Internal Control Deficiencies and Auditors of U.S.-Listed Chinese versus U.S. Firms38. 内部控制信息披露与代理成本—来自瑞士的非金融类上市公司的证据( January 2013) Internal Control Disclosure and Agency Costs Evidence from Swiss listed non-financial Companies39. 萨班斯奥克斯利法案与公司投资：来自自然实验的新证据The Sarbanes-Oxley Act and Corporate Investment: New Evidence from a Natural Experiment40. 国内投资者保护、所有权结构与交叉上市公司遵守SOX 要求披露内部控制缺陷Home Country Investor Protection, Ownership Structure and Cross-Listed Firms 'Compliance with SOX-Mandated Internal Control Deficiency Disclosure41. 审计师对披露重大缺陷相关风险的看法Auditors ' Percenpsti o f the Risks Associated with Disclosing Material Weaknesses42. 交叉上市公司提供与美国公司相同质量的披露？来自萨班斯-奥克斯利法案302 条款下的内部控制缺陷信息披露的证据Do cross-listed firms provide the same quality disclosure as U.S. firms? Evidence from the internal control deficiency disclosure under Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act43. 内部控制缺陷与并购绩效Internal Control Weaknesses and Acquisition Performance44. 萨班斯-奥克斯利法案302 条款下的内部控制缺陷对审计费用的影响The Effect of Internal Control Weakness under Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act on Audit Fees45. 审计师对财务报告内部控制的评价对审计费用、债务成本及净遵从收益The Effect of Auditors ' Assessment of Internal Control of over Financial Reporting on Audit Fees, Cost of Debt and Net Compliance Benefit46. 上市公司披露的信息含量与萨班斯-奥克斯利法案Information Content of Public Firm Disclosures and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act47. 财务错报与股票市场的契约：从增发的证据Financial Misstatements and Contracting in the Equity Market: Evidence from Seasoned Equity Offerings48. 公司治理质量与SOX 302 条款下内部控制报告Corporate Governance Quality and Internal Control Reporting Under Sox Section 30249. 审计委员会质量、审计师独立性与内部控制缺陷Audit Committee Quality, Auditor Independence, and Internal Control Weaknesses50. SOX404 条款的影响：成本，盈余质量与股票价格The Effect of SOX Section 404: Costs, Earnings Quality, and Stock Prices51. 内部控制缺陷与银行贷款契约：来自SOX404 条款披露的证据Internal Control Weakness and Bank Loan Contracting: Evidence from SOX Section 404 Disclosures52. 审计师对财务报告内部控制的决策：分析、综合和研究方向Auditors I'nternal Control Over Financial Reporting Decisions: Analysis, Synthesis, and Research Directions 53. 应计质量与财务报告内部控制( Doyle ，The Accounting Review, forthcoming )Accruals Quality and Internal Control over Financial Reporting54. 业绩基础CEO 和CFO 薪酬对内部控制质量的影响The impact of performance-based CEO and CFO compensation on internal control quality55. 内部控制重大缺陷与CFO 薪酬Internal Control Material Weaknesses and CFO Compensation56. 财务报告内部控制缺陷的决定因素Determinants of weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting57. 内部控制与管理指南Internal Control and Management Guidance58. 2002 萨班斯-奥克斯利法案302 条款下内部控制缺陷的市场反应以及这些缺陷的特征Market Reactions to the Disclosure of Internal Control Weaknesses and to the Characteristics of thoseWeaknesses under Section 302 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 200259. 自愿报告内部风险管理和控制系统的经济激励Economic Incentives for Voluntary Reporting on Internal Risk Management and Control Systems60. 后萨班斯法案时代审计意见的信息含量The information content of audit opinions in the post-sox era61. 上市公司披露的信息含量与萨班斯-奥克斯利法案( April, 2010 )Information Content of Public Firm Disclosures and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act62. 信息摩擦如何影响公司资产流动性的选择？萨班斯法案404 条款的影响How do Informational Frictions Affect the Firm s Choice of A'sset Liquidity? The Effect of SOX Section 404 63. 已审计的信息披露给资本市场参与者带来利益是什么( December 19, 2013)What are the benefits of audited disclosures to equity market participants64. 诉讼风险与审计定价：公众股权的作用( January 7, 2013)Litigation Risk and Audit Pricing: The Role of Public Equity65. 萨班斯-奥克斯利法案对IPO 和高收益债券发行人的影响The Impact of Sarbanes-Oxley on IPOs and High Yield Debt Issuers66. 来自金融危机的公司治理的经验教训The Corporate Governance Lessons from the Financial Crisis67. 谁对企业欺诈吹口哨Who Blows the Whistle on Corporate Fraud68. 内部控制缺陷与现金持有价值Internal Control Weakness and Value of Cash Holdings69. 民族文化和制度环境对内部控制信息披露的影响The impact of national culture and institutional Environment on internal control disclosures70. 财务报告质量与权益资本成本之间联系的讨论：一些个人的意见( June 6, 2013)Some Personal Observations on the Debate on the Link between Financial Reporting Quality and the Cost of Equity Capital71. 使用盈利预测同时估计企业层面的权益资本成本和长期增长Using Earnings Forecasts to Simultaneously Estimate Firm-Specific Cost of Equity and Long-Term Growth72. 高管薪酬差距与权益资本成本Executive Pay Disparity and the Cost of Equity Capital73. 财务报告质量与公司债券市场(博士论文，Mingzhi Liu, 2011 )Financial Reporting Quality and Corporate Bond MarketsReferencesAboody, D., J. Hughes, and J. Liu. (2005) Earnings quality, insider trading, and cost of capital. Journalof Acco un ti ng Research 43: 651 -673.Akins, B., J. Ng and R. Verdi (2012) Investor competition over information and the pricing of information asymmetry. The Accounting Review 87(1): 35-58.Ali, A., A. Klein and J. Rosenfeld. (1992) Analysts ' use of information abouttrpaenrsmitaonryent andearnings components in forecasting annual EPS. The Accounting Review 67: 183-198.Amihud, Y., and H. Mendelson. (1986) Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread. Journal of Financial Econo mics 17: 223 —49.Artiach, T. and P. Clarkson. (2011) Disclosure, conservatism and the cost of equity capital: A review of the foundation literature. Accounting and Finance 51(1): 2-49.Ashbaugh-Skaiffe, H., D. Collins, W. Kinney, Jr., and R. LaFond (2009) The effect of SOX internal control deficiencies on firm risk and cost of equity. Journal of Accounting Research 47(1): 1-43.Armstrong, C., J. Core, D. Taylor and R. Verrecchia (2011) When does information asymmetry affect the cost of capital? Journal of Accounting Research 49(1): 1-40.Balakrishnan, K., R. Vashishtha and R. Verrecchia (2012) Aggregate competition, information asymmetry and cost of capital: Evidence from equity market liberalization. Working paper, University of Pennsylvania.Barron, O., O. Kim, S. Lim and D. Stevens (1998) Using analysts forecasts to measure properties on analysts ' information environmeTnth.e Accounting Review 73: 421-433.Barry, C., and S. Brown. (1985) Differential information and security market equilibrium. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 20: 407 T22.Barth, M., W. Beaver, and W. Landsman (2001) The relevance of value-relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting: Another view, Journal of A”ccounting and Economics (Sept): 77-104.Barth, M., Y. Konchitchki and W. Landsman (2013) Cost of capital and earnings transparency. Journal of Accounting and Economics , forthcoming.Beyer A., D. Cohen, T. Lys and B. Walther (2010) The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature. Journal of Accounting and Economics 50: 296-343.Bhattacharya, N., F. Ecker, P. Olsson, and K. Schipper (2012) Direct and mediated association among earnings quality, information asymmetry, and the cost of capital, The Accounting Review 87(2): 449-482. Botosan, C. (1997) Disclosure level and the cost of equity capital. The Accounting Review 72: 323 -350. Botosan, C., and M. Plumlee. (2002) A re-examination of disclosure level and the expected cost of equity capital. Journal of Accounting Research 40: 21 ZO.Botosan, C., M. Plumlee and Y. Xie (2004) The role of information precision in determining the cost of equity capital. Review of Accounting Studies 9 (2-3): 233-259.Botosan, C., and M. Plumlee. (2005) Assessing alternative proxies for the expected risk premium. The Accounting Review 80: 21-53.Botosan, C., M. Plumlee and H. Wen. (2011) The relation between expected returns, realized returns, and firm risk characteristics. Contemporary Accounting Research 28(4): 1085-1122.Brown, P. and T. Walter (2012) The CAPM: Theoretical validity, empirical intractability and practical applications. Abacus 1-7.Callahan, C., R. Smith and A. Spencer (2012) An examination of the cost of capital implications of FIN 46. The Accounting Review 87(4): 1105-1134.Chava, S., and A. Purnanandam (2010) Is default risk negatively related to stock returns? Review of Financial Studies 23: 2523-2559.Chen, S., B. Miao and T. Shevlin (2013) A new measure of disclosure quality: The level of disaggregation of accounting data in annual reports. Working paper, The University of Texas at Austin. Christensen, P., L. de la Rosa and G. Feltham (2010) Information and the cost of capital: An ex ante perspective. The Accounting Review 85(3): 817-848.Clarkson, P., J. Guedes and R. Thompson (1996) On the diversifiability, observability, and measurement of estimation risk. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 31: 69084.Claus, J., and J. Thomas (2001) Equity premia as low as three percent? Evidence from analysts earnings forecasts for domestic and international stock markets. The Journal of Finance 56(5): 1629-1666.Clinch G., and B. Lombardi (2011) Information and the cost of capital: the Easley- O' Hara(2004) modelwith endogeneous information acquisition. Australian Journal of Management 36(5): 5-14.Coles, J., U. Loewenstein, and J. Suay. (1995) On equilibrium pricing under parameter uncertainty. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30: 347 -374.Core, J., (2001) A review of the empirical disclosure literature: Discussion. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31: 441-456.Core, J., W. Guay and R. Verdi, (2008) Is accruals quality a priced risk factor? Journal of Accountingand Economics 46: 2-22.Daniel, K. and S. Titman, 1997, Evidence on the characteristics of cross-sectional variation in common stock returns. Journal of Finance 52, 1-33.Daske, H., L Hail, C. Leuz and R. Verdi (2008) Mandatory IFRS reporting around the world: Early evidence on the economic consequences. Journal of Accounting Research 46: 1085-1142.Daske, H., L Hail, C. Leuz and R. Verdi, (2013) Adopting a label: Heterogeneity in the economic consequences around IAS/IFRS adoptions. Journal of Accounting Research 51(3):495-548.Dechow, P. and I. Dichev. (2002) The quality of accruals and earnings: the role of accrual estimation errors. The Accounting Review 77 (Supplement): 35-59.Dechow, P., W. Ge and C. Schrand (2010) Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences. Journal of Accounting and Economics 50: 344-401.Dhaliwal, D., L. Krull and W. Moser (2005) Dividend taxes and implied cost of equity capital. Journal of Accounting Research 43(5): 675-708.Dhaliwal, D., L. Krull and O. Li (2007) Did the 2003 Tax Act reduce the cost of equity capital? Journal of Accounting and Economics 43(1): 121-150.Diamond, D., and R. Verrecchia. (1991) Disclosure, liquidity, and cost of capital. Journal of Finance 46: 1325 -59. Dye, R., (2001) An evaluation of “ essayson disclosure a”nd the disclosure literature in accounting. Journal of Accounting and Economics 32: 181-235.Easley, D., S. Hvidkjaer and M. O'Hara.(2002) Is information risk a determinant of asset returns. Journal of Finance 57: 2185-2221.Easley, D., and M. O' Hara. (2004) Information and the cost of capital. Journal of Fi nance 59: 1553-1583. Easton, P. (2004) PE ratios, PEG ratios, and estimating the implied expected rate of return on equity capital. The Accounting Review 79(1): 73-96.Easton, P., and S. Monahan. (2005) An evaluation of accounting based measures of expected returns. The Accounting Review 80: 501 -538.Easton, P., and S. Monahan. (2010) Evaluating accounting-based measures of expected returns: Easton and Monahan and Botosan and Plumlee redux. Working paper, University of Notre Dame.Ecker, F., J. Francis, I. Kim, P. Olsson, and K. Schipper (2006). A returns-based representation of earnings quality. The Accounting Review 81: 749 -780.Fama, E., and J. MacBeth. 1973. Risk, return, and equilibrium: Empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy 81: 607-636.Fama, E., and K. French. (1992) The cross-section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance 47(2): 427-465. Fama, E., and K. French. (1993) Common risk factors in the returns on bonds and stocks. Journal of Financial Economics 33: 3-56.Francis, J., LaFond, R., Olsson, P., and K. Schipper. (2004) Costs of equity and earnings attributes. The Accounting Review 79: 967-1010.Francis, J., LaFond, R., Olsson, P., and K. Schipper. (2005) The market pricing of accruals quality. Journal of Accounting & Economics 39: 295-327.Francis, J., Nanda, D., and P. Olsson. (2008) Voluntary disclosure, information quality, and costs of capital. Journal of Accounting Research 46 (1): 53-99.Gebhardt,W., C. Lee and B. Swaminathan (2001) Towards an ex ante cost of capital. Journal of Accounting Research 39(1): 135-176.Goh, B-W., J. Lee, C-Y. Lim and T. Shevlin (2013) The effect of corporate tax avoidance on the cost of equity. Working paper, Singapore Management University.Gow, I., G. Ormazabal and D. Taylor (2010) Correcting for cross-sectional and time-series dependence in accounting research The Accounting Review 85(2): 483-512.Gray, P., P. Koh and Y. Tong (2009) Accruals quality, information risk and cost of capital: Evidence from Australia. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 36(1-2): 51-72.Guay, W., S.P. Kothari and S. Shu (2011) Properties of implied cost of capital using analysts forecasts. Australian Journal of Management 36(2): 125-149.Hail, L. (2002) The impact of voluntary corporate disclosure on the ex-ante cost of capital for Swiss firms European Accounting Review 11: 741-773.Hail, L., and C. Leuz. (2006) International differences in the cost of equity capital: Do legal institutions and securities regulation matter? Journal of Accounting Research 44(3): 485-531.Healy, P., and K. Palepu (2001) Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of Accounting and Economics 31: 405-440. Hirshleifer, D., K. Hou, and S.H. Teoh (2012) The accrual anomaly: Risk or mispricing? ManagementScienee (58-2); 320 -335.Holthausen, R., and R. Watts (2001) The relevance of value-relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting. Journal of Accounting and Economics (Sept): 3-75.Hribar, P. and T, Jenkins. (2004) The effect of accounting restatements on earnings revisions and the estimated cost of capital. Review of Accounting Studies 9(2-3): 337-356.Hughes, J. S., J. Liu, and J. Liu. (2007) Information asymmetry, diversification, and cost of capital. The Accounting Review 82: 705-729.Hughes, J. S., J. Liu, and J. Liu. (2009) On the association between expected returns and implied cost of capital R”eview of Accounting Studies 14: 246-259.Hutchens, M. and S. Rego (2013) Tax risk and the cost of equity capital. Working paper, Indiana University. Hwang, L-S., W-J. Lee, S-Y. Lim and K-H. Park, (2013) Does information risk affect the implied cost of equity capital? An analysis of PIN and adjusted PIN. Journal of Accounting and Economics 55(2-3): 148-167.Kim, D., and Y. Qi (2010) Accruals quality, stock returns, and macroeconomic conditions. The Accounting Review 85(3): 937-978.Klein, R., and V. Bawa. (1977) The effect of estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice. Journal of Financial Economics 3: 215-231.Kothari, S.P., X. Li and J. Short. (2009) The effect of disclosures by management, analysts, and financial press oncost of capital, return volatility, and analyst forecasts: A study using content analysis. The Accounting Review82(5): 1255-1297.Kravet, T. and T. Shevlin. (2010) Accounting restatements and information risk. Review of Accounting Studies 15: 264-294.Kyle, A. (1985) Continuous auctions and insider trade. Econometrica 53(6): 1315-1335.Lambert, R., C. Leuz, and R. Verrecchia. (2007) Accounting information, disclosure, and the cost of capital. Journal of Accounting Research 45(2): 385-420.Lambert, R., C. Leuz, and R. Verrecchia. (2012) Information asymmetry, information precision, and the cost of capital. Review of Finance 16: 1-29.Lambert, R., (2009) Discussion of “onthe association between expected returns and implied cost of capital R”eview of Accounting Studies 14: 260-268.Leuz, C., and R. Verrecchia (2004) Firms ' capital allocatio n choices, in formati on qhuaCys tandcapital. Work ing paper, Uni versity of Penn sylva nia.Li, V., T. Shevli n and D. Shores (2013) Revisit ing the AQ measure of accrual quality. Work ing paper, Uni versityof Wash ington.Lys, T., and S. Sohn. (1990) The associati on betwee n revisi ons of finan cial an alyst forecastsearning and security price cha nges. Jour nal of Acco un ti ng and Econo mics 13: 341-363.Mashruwala, C. and S. Mashruwala (2011) The pric ing of accrual quality: January versus the rest of the year. TheAccou nting Review 86(4): 1349-1381.McInnis, J. (2010) Earnings smoothness, average returns and implied cost of equity capital. The Accou ntingReview 85(1): 315-341.Mohanram, P., and D. Gode (2013) Removing predictable analyst forecast errors to improve implied cost of equity estimates. Review of Acco un ti ng Studies 18: 443-478.Ogneva, M., K.R. Subramanyam, and K. Raghunandan (2007) Internal control weakness and cost of equity: Evidenee from SOX Section 404 disclosures. The Accou nti ng Review 82(5) :1255-1297.Ogneva, M., (2012) Accrual quality, realized returns, and expected returns: The importanee of con trolli ng forcash flow shocks, The Accou nting Review 87(4): 1415-1444.Peterse n, M., (2009) Estimati ng sta ndard errors in finance data pan els: Compari ng approaches. Reviewof Financial Studies 22(1): 435-480.Petkova, R. (2006) Do the Fama-Fre nch factors proxy for inno vati on in predictive variables? Journal of Finance61: 581-612.Reidl, E., and G. Serafeim (2011) In formati on risk and fair values: An exam in ati on of equity betas. Journal ofAccounting Research 49(4): 1083-1122.Strobl, G., (2013) Earnings manipulation and the cost of capital. Journal of Accounting Research, forthco ming. Verrecchia, R. (2001) Essays on disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics 32: 97-180.Vuolteenaho, T. (2002) What drives firm-level stock returns? The Journal of Finance 57: 233 -264.How Do Various Forms of Auditor Rotation Affect Audit Quality? Evidence from China内部控制质量、企业风险与权益资本成本一一理论分析与实证检验1. Accruals Quality and In ternal Con trol over Finan cial Report in g.Acco un ti ng Review, Oct2007, V ol.82 Issue52. Audit Committee Quality and Internal Control An Empirical Analysis.FullAccounting Review, Apr2005, Vol.80 Issue 23. Bala ncing the Dual Resp on sibilities of Busin ess Un it Con trollers Field and Survey Evide nee. Accounting Review, Jul2009, Vol. 84 Issue44. Corporate Governance and Internal Control over Financial Reporting A Comparison ofRegulatory Regimes Accou nting Review, May2009, Vol. 84 Issue 35. Ear nings Man ageme nt of Firms Report ing Material In ternal Con trol Weak nesses un der Sect ion 404of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Auditing, Nov2008, Vol. 27 Issue 26. Economic Incentives for V oluntary Reporting on Internal Risk Management and Control Systems.Auditing, May2008, V ol. 27 Issue 67. Firm Characteristics and Volu ntary Man ageme nt Reports on In ternal Con trol. Audit ing, Nov2006,Vol. 25 Issue28. Former Audit Partners on the Audit Committee and Internal Control Deficiencies. Accounting Review,Mar2009, Vol. 849.Internal Control Quality and Audit Pricing under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act . Auditing, May2008, Vol.2710.Internal Control Weakness and Cost of Equity Evidenee from SOX Section 404 Disclosures Accou nti ngReview, Oct2007, Vol. 8211.I nternal Control Weak nesses and In formatio n Un certai nty. Accou nting Review, May2008, Vol. 8312.lnternal Controls and the Detection of Management Fraud. Journal of Accounting Research, Sprin g99,Vol. 3713.Reduci ng Man ageme nt's In flue nee on Auditors Judgme nts An Experime ntal In vestigati on of SOX404 Assessme nts Acco un ti ng Review, Nov2008, V)l. 8314.SOX Section 404 Material WeaknessDisclosures and Audit Fees.Full Auditing, May2006, Vol. 2515.The Effect of SOX Internal Control Deficiencies and Their Remediation on Accrual Quality. AccountingReview, Jan2008, Vol. 8316.The Impact of SOX Section 404 Internal Control Quality Assessment on Audit Delay in the SOX Era.Auditing, Nov2006, Vol. 25Ashbaugh-Skaife, H., Collins, D. W., & Kinney Jr., W. R. (2007). The discovery and reporting of internal con trol deficie ncies prior to SOX-ma ndated audits. Jour nal of Acco unting and Economics, 44(1 —2), 166 -92.Ashbaugh-Skaife, H., Collins, D. W., Kinney Jr, W. R., & Lafond, R. (2009). The Effect of SOX Internal Control Deficiencies on Firm Risk and Cost of Equity. Journal of Accounting Research, 47(1),1 -43.Bahramian, A. (2011), Evaluation of the effectiveness of internal controls in an Investment Company, Master Thesis in Imam Hossein University, Iran.Daraby, M, (2006), analyzing the effect of strengthening internal controls, audit reports of companies listed on the Stock Audit, Master Thesis in Azan Islamic university.Doyle, J., Ge, W., & McVay, S. (2007). Determinants of weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 44(1 -2), 193 -223.Feng, M., Li, C., & McVay, S. (2009). Internal control and management guidance. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 48(2 -3), 190 -209.Maham K., Poriya Nasab, A. (2000), Internal control) Integrated Framework( , Report of the Committee of the Commission Tardy, azman Hesabresy, Pages 118, 135.Ogneva, M., Subramanyam, K. R., & Raghunandan, K. (2007). Internal control weakness and cost of equity: evidence from SOX Section 404 disclosures. The Accounting Review, 82(5), 1255-1297.Rezaie Jahangoshaee, H, (1996). A analytical study of the degree of reliance of independent auditors on firms internal controls, Master Thesis, shahid Beheshti University, Iran.。
布迪价差与原油跨区套利关系研究
61ARKET ANALYSIS市场分析摘 要：布伦特原油和迪拜原油是原油实货交易的两个重要计价基础，场外的布迪价差合约能够将Ｂｒｅｎｔ和Ｄｕｂａｉ两个计价体系联系起来。
考虑到西非和中东原油的特性和计价特点，通过研究布迪价差与西非和中东原油跨区套利交易之间的关系，发现西非和中东原油现货价差与布迪价差存在相互影响的关系，且这种影响有几天的滞后性。
同时，利用自回归分布滞后模型，较好地将布迪价差与西非和中东原油现货价差进行了拟合，模拟出跨区套利交易对布迪价差影响的可能路径。
关键词：原油，Ｂｒｅｎｔ原油，Ｄｕｂａｉ原油，布迪价差，跨区套利Abstract ：Brent and Dubai are two important benchmark assessment of the value of physical. Brent 1st line vs. Dubai 1st line future, an OTC contact called B/D swap, can transfer the pricing of physical from Brent to Dubai. Considering the grades characteristics and benchmark features of crude oil from the West Africa and the Middle East, this paper finds the mutual influence between the West Africa and the Middle East grades spot price differential and B/D swap and its lag effects by studying the relationship between B/D swap and cross-regional arbitrage trading. Meanwhile, it uses autoregressive distributed lag model (which can be abbreviated to ADL) to fit B/D swap and the spot price differential between the West Africa and the Middle East grades, and results in the possible path by which the cross-regional arbitrage trading affects B/D swap.Key words ：crude oil; Brent benchmark; Dubai benchmark; B/D swap; cross-regional arbitrage布迪价差与原油跨区套利关系研究雷健( 中化国际石油（伦敦）有限公司）Study on the relationship between B/D swap and cross-regional arbitrageJay Lei(Sinochem International Oil (London) Co., Ltd.)62INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM ECONOMICS国际石油经济Vol.29, No.32021图1 Brent和Dubai的关系拓展1 研究背景1.1 原油计价体系概述原油实物交易价格通常是以一个基准价格加上升贴水确定。
烤肉制品的油脂提取方法的研究及其过氧化值的测定_刘文平
烤肉制品的油脂提取方法的研究及其过氧化值的测定刘文平1，谭操1，李平1，刘忠义1，*，唐道邦2，*(1.湘潭大学食品与生物工程系，湖南湘潭411105;2.广东省农业科学院蚕业与农产品加工研究所，广东广州510610)摘要：以烤肉制品为原料，采用正己烷－异丙醇溶剂浸提法提取油脂，旨在提高低脂肪烤肉制品中油脂提取率同时准确测定其过氧化值。
油脂提取的最优条件:称取肉样(绞碎混匀)2.000g ，加入正己烷－异丙醇(4ʒ1，v /v )混合溶剂20mL ，浸泡过夜，2500r /min 离心20min ;旋转蒸发至尽干，于真空干燥箱中干燥1.5h 。
用该方法对不同烤肉制品进行验证性实验，均获得了较好的提取效果。
该提取方法回收率为84.51% 113.20%，提取率的相对标准偏差为0.12%0.67%，表明该油脂提取方法准确度和精密度均较高。
测定所提油脂的过氧化值，结果表明该油脂提取方法不会影响其过氧化值测定结果，并解决了石油醚浸提法无法准确测定低脂肪肉制品(鸡肉)中过氧化值的问题。
关键词：烤肉制品，油脂，提取剂，提取率Extraction method of the oils and fats and theperoxide value determination in barbecue productsLIU Wen －ping 1，TAN Cao 1，LI Ping 1，LIU Zhong －yi 1，*，TANG Dao －bang 2，*(1.College of Food and Biological Engineering ，Xiangtan University ，Xiangtan 411105，China ;2.Sericulture＆Agri－food Ｒesearch Institute ，Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences ，Guangzhou 510610，China )Abstract :Oil was extracted from barbecue products by n －hexane －isopropanol (4ʒ1，v /v )solvent extraction method ，in order to improve the oil extraction rate in low －fat barbecue products and the degree of accuracy of peroxide value determination results in barbecue products .The results showed that the optimal conditions of oil extraction in barbecue products were determined to be the minced meat samples 2.000g were soaked in 20mL n －hexane －isopropanol (4ʒ1，v /v )for the night ，and then centrifuged for 20min at the speed of 2500r /min ，and the solvent of the oil extraction was removed with a rotary evaporator ，and then dried for 1.5h in a vacuum oven .When it was used to extract the oil from the different barbecue products as validation experiments ，a good extraction result was gained .The recovery of this method was in the range of 84.51%to 113.20%，and the relative standard deviation of extraction rate was in the range of 0.12%to 0.67%.This method has high accuracy and precision .It did not affect the peroxide value determination ，and it can accurately measure the peroxide value in low －fat meat products ，such as chicken .Key words :barbecue products ;oils and fats ;the extraction agent ;the extraction rate 中图分类号：TS251.7文献标识码：A文章编号：1002－0306（2014）13－0076－05doi ：10．13386/j．issn1002－0306．2014．13．007收稿日期：2013－10－08*通讯联系人作者简介：刘文平(1987－)，女，硕士研究生，研究方向:食品、生物与制药工程。
基于ARIMA模型国际石油价格的分析与预测
揖摘 要铱石油是世界工业、经济发展的重要支柱，我国作为石油进口大国，经济运行会受到国际石油价格波动的影响。因此，研究国际 油价波动规律对国家调控石油市场、制定能源政策具有重要意义。论文以 2000-2021 年国际石油价格为依据建立 ARIMA 预测模型， 将预测结果与定性分析结合，对 2021 年 2 月中旬到 4 月末的国际石油价格趋势进行预测，结果表明短期内该模型预测良好，具有一 定的参考价值和借鉴意义。
3 ARIMA 模型理论基础
3.1 ARIMA 模型概述 ARIMA 模型是一种常用的时间序列模型，由 E.P.Box 和
G.M.Jenkins 于上世纪 60 年代创立，又称博克斯-金格斯方 法。ARIMA 模型全称差分移动平均自回归模型，简记 ARIMA (p,d,f)，其中 p 为自回归系数，d 为对序列进行差分运算的次 数，q 为移动平均系数。
模型拟合后需要对模型的残差进行检验。进行假设性检 验后发现，P 值大于 0.05,因此接受原假设，该残差序列为白 噪声序列，故模型对序列中信息提取充分，该模型运行良好。 4.4 ARIMA 模型的预测
本文采用 2000 年 1 月-2021 年 1 月 WTI 原油价格周 数据，建立 ARIMA(2,1,2)模型，对 2021 年 1 月到 4 月末的 石油价格进行预测，预测结果如图 2 所示。计算 1 月份石油 价格真实值与预测值的相对误差后发现，该模型预测的相 对 误 差 都 在 10% 以 内 ， 尤 其 是 第 一 期 的 相 对 误 差 仅 为 0.7%，这说明模型短期内预测效果良好。根据图 2 的价格 走势，在接下来的两个月里，国际石油价格整体上保持上升
2011年8月国际原油市场月报
8月国际原油市场回顾及未来油价分析8月份，由于美国经济复苏乏力，失业率居高不下，欧洲债务危机阴霾不散，加之美国原油库存增加，以及持续半年的利比亚内战几近结束，原油供应可能得到补充等多重利空因素的影响，欧美原油在延续了7月原油大跌后震荡下挫。
临近月末美国宽松货币政策预期和美国飓风的到来一定程度上支撑了油价企稳回升。
8月份，美国WTI、英国布伦特原油以及亚洲迪拜原油的现货价格平均为96.6美元/桶、111.72美元/桶、104.78美元/桶，每桶分别较7月份下降0.66美元、5.16美元和5.22美元。
一、国际原油价格走势上旬，由于美国经济数据疲软，投资者担忧美国经济可能出现二次探底以及欧债危机会不断加剧，加之美元上涨和美国原油库存意外增加，主要机构调低需求预估等因素拖累，国际油价连连大跌，9日，受标普下调美国主权信用评级影响，市场恐慌情绪蔓延，纽约油价继续暴跌至每桶80美元下方，为近一年以来首次跌破80美元关口，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格跌至每桶102.57美元。
中旬，受到欧债危机有解决希望以及美国汽油库存意外大幅下降影响，国际原油价格震荡上升，17日盘中一度触及89美元的高位，但终因美国经济数据疲软和欧债危机忧虑的影响，油价大幅下挫。
下旬，由于市场期待美联储将推出经济刺激政策，原油需求预期增加，以及热带气旋威胁到墨西哥湾的石油生产，WTI原油期货价格连连上涨，但美国原油库存的意外大幅增加抑制了涨幅，伦敦布伦特油价则连续第七个交易日上涨。
31日，纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格微跌9美分，收于每桶88.81美元，跌幅为0.1%，交易量依然维持低位。
但10月交货的伦敦北海布伦特原油期货价格上涨83美分，收于每桶114.85美元，涨幅为0.73%。
图1 8月国际原油期货价格走势二、8月份石油市场特点及影响因素1、WTI较布伦特溢价水平进一步扩宽。
随着美国经济持续显现疲态，复苏乏力，美国原油较布伦特油价格溢价进一步扩大。
新冠肺炎疫情下国际原油价格驱动因素研究--基于断点最小二乘法与邹突变点检验
72INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM ECONOMICS国际石油经济Vol.28, No.122020摘 要：新冠肺炎疫情在全球范围内暴发，持续冲击世界经济，2020年4月20日，美国原油期货价格史无前例地跌至-40.32美元/桶，疫情期间国际原油价格驱动因素值得探讨。
选取2020年1月13日至8月3日交易日数据，考虑结构突变，构建国际原油价格驱动因素断点最小二乘法模型。
经实证，原油价格跌至负值当日确为模型的结构断点，结构断点前新冠肺炎疫情对国际原油价格上涨起严重阻碍作用，投资者预期对国际原油价格上涨也存在消极影响；结构断点后货币政策消极程度严重阻碍国际原油价格上涨；原油需求对原油期货价格的影响在结构断点前后有所不同。
据此认为，疫情防控和提升货币的政策积极性是各国的首要任务，保持对投资者具有重大利好的货币政策倾向、提升信息透明度是促进原油价格提升的重要手段。
关键词：新冠肺炎疫情；国际原油价格；断点最小二乘法；邹突变点检验Abstract ：The outbreak of COVID-19 on a global scale continues to impact the world economy. On April 20, 2020, the US crude oil futures price fell to USD -40.32/barrel for an unprecedented time due to the impact of the pandemic. It is worth exploring the driving factors of international crude oil price during the pandemic. The paper selects the trading date of solstice on January 13, 2020 to August 3, considers the abrupt change of structure, and constructs driving factors of international crude oil price—the least square model of the breakpoint. Empirical results show that the day when crude oil price falls to the negative is indeed the structural break point of the model. Before the structural break point, COVID-19 has seriously hindered the rise of international crude oil price, and investor’s expectations also have a negative impact on the rise of international crude oil price. After the structural break point, the degree of monetary policy passivity seriously hinders the rise of international crude oil price. The effect of crude oil demand on crude oil futures price varies before and after the structural break point. Therefore, this paper believes that the prevention and control of the pandemic and the promotion of monetary policy initiatives are the top priorities of all countries in the world, and maintaining a monetary policy orientation that is highly beneficial to investors and improving information transparency are also important means to promote the increase of international crude oil prices.Key words ：the COVID-19; international crude oil price; least square with breakpoint; Chow breakpoint test新冠肺炎疫情下国际原油价格驱动因素研究——基于断点最小二乘法与邹突变点检验闫勇1，张雪峰2，宋鸽2，付杨３( 1.中国石油集团经济技术研究院；2.北方工业大学经济管理学院；3.北京石油机械有限公司）Research on the driving factors of international crude oil price under COVID-19—Based on least square with breakpoint and Chow breakpoint test YAN Yong 1, ZHANG Xuefeng 2, SONG Ge 2, FU Yang 3(1. CNPC Economics &Technology Research Institute; 2. School of Economics and Management, North China University of Technology; 3. CNPC Beijing Oilfield Machinery Co., Ltd.)FORUM油价论坛731 国际原油价格驱动因素及相关研究2020年初，新型冠状病毒肺炎（下文简称“新冠”）疫情在全球范围内暴发。
基于ARIMA模型的石油价格短期分析预测
基于ARIMA模型的石油价格短期分析预测基于 ARIMA 模型的石油价格短期分析预测摘要2008年国际石油市场经历了前所未有的大起大落,受多种因素影响,国际市场油价在上半年节节攀升,并在7月11日创下每桶145.66美元的历史昀高纪录;在下半年又迅速跌落,并在 12 月 5 日跌至每桶 37.94 美元,创 4 年来昀低水平。
在短短五个月内下跌了100美元以上,其走势“变幻莫测”。
国际油价从加速膨胀到泡沫破裂,对大到世界经济、政治格局,小到企业、个人的决策都产生了深远的影响。
本文正是基于石油的重要性,选择石油价格展开研究,作出一个计量经济学方面的探讨。
本文首先介绍了ARIMA模型的理论与方法,并以布伦特原油的现货报价为依据,建立 ARIMA 预测模型,昀后分析了 2009年国际以及石油行业的新的局势和动态,将定量分析和定性分析相结合,对石油价格的未来走势进行分析和判断。
这对于国家制定石油贸易策略、参与石油期货交易、企业科学决策都有着一定的意义和作用。
关键词:石油价格;ARIMA模型;预测;时间序列模型I 基于 ARIMA 模型的石油价格短期分析预测AbstractIn 2008, the international petroleum marketplace has experienced big up and down, becauseof many factors, the international petroleum price climbed very quickly in the first half of the2008, and created imal notes of history by 145.66 U. S. dollar per barrel on July 11. Butdropped also quickly and fall to 37.94 U. S. dollar per barrel on December 5, creating lowestlevel in 4 years. In just five months dropped by more than 100 U.S. dollars, the trend wasunpredictable. Accelerate the expansion of international oil prices from the bubble burst. Largeto the world economy, political structure, small to enterprises and individuals in decision-makinghave had a far-reaching impact on. This article is based on the importance of oil, choose to studyin oil prices, make a measurement of economics. The article firstanalyzes the impact of variousfactors in oil prices, and bases on the spot pricing of Brent crude oil, establishes forecastingmodel “ARIMA”. Finally analyze the interna tional oil industry, as well as a new and dynamicsituation, integrate the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, on the future direction of oilprices to analyze and judge. There is a big significance for the national strategy for thedevelopment of oil trade, to participate in oil futures, a scientific decision-making for enterpriseThe key words: Oil prices; ARIMA model; Forecast; Time Series Model II 基于 ARIMA 模型的石油价格短期分析预测目录摘要 IAbstract. II目录. III1 绪论 11.1论文的研究背景11.2 论文的研究目的与意义. 21.3 研究现状. 31.4 研究的思路和内容42 时间序列的理论模型与方法概述. 52.1 时间序列模型的含义 52.2 随机时间序列模型52.3 平稳时间序列 52.4 时间序列模型的建模步骤92.5 预测评价中的其他指标 183 石油价格形成及影响因素分析203.1 石油价格构成因素. 203.2 石油价格短期影响因素分析214 ARIMA模型在石油价格中的定量分析 25 4.1 数据来源 254.2 时间序列的平稳性检验 25III 基于 ARIMA 模型的石油价格短期分析预测4.3 检查二阶差分的平稳性 274.4 模型的识别与定阶. 304.5 模型的检验. 354.6 模型的预测. 365 石油价格短期走势的定性分析385.1 世界经济表现385.2 供需形势变化385.3 欧佩克减产政策 405.4 美元走势分析415.5 地缘政治局势425.6 市场投机炒作425.7 小结. 42结论44参考文献. 45附录47致谢49IV 基于 ARIMA 模型的石油价格短期分析预测1 绪论1.1 论文的研究背景[1]2008年的国际石油价格波动剧烈程度超出人们的预料。
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性，平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益，请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间：9:00-18:30)。
英日复语09级7班090110717 董琳424words
The Results of Oil Price’s Increase
In recent years, oil price’s increase has been a troublesome problem both in China and abroad. People who do not have cars may think that it has little relationship with them, but actually oil is closely linked with everyone of us. T he oil price’s change can do a great influence on a country even the whole world.
The most direct consequence will be the increase of people’s living cost. As the price of oil growing, people should pay more bills for cars or for the bus tickets. As we all know, oil is a basic chemical material. It is not only a driving force but also an essential material of a lot of productions. For examples, clothes, plastics, fertilizer and so on, they all need oil. So if the price of oil increases, the prices of those things will also increase. At the same time, if the salary dose not raise, people will suffer more life pressure. It will threaten the social stability.
Another important result is that it can influence the peace of the world. Just as I have mentioned above, o il has a great effect on a country’s development. So for a long time every country pays a lot of attention to oil and thus led to many fights. The Gulf War, The Iran-Iraq War, The Kosovo War and many other wars all cause of oil. We can not image how much painful the people who live in the Middle East are suffering. Although we live in China, we also have to establish the sense of crises, because nowadays every country in the world are trying their best to seek oil and the developed countries like America, they want to control oil. The whole world is in a turbulent situation and that also influence our safety.
Although the increase of oil price can bring a lot of trouble, it may be good to the environment. People who own cars may choose to take buses when they go out because it can be more profitable. If the number of cars decreases, the vehicle exhaust emission will also reduce and the air quality will enhance. At the same time, it can ease the urban traffic congestion effectively.
The most important for us is not fight for oil, but find a benefit way to solve the rigorous problem. Oil is nonrenewable resource, it will be used up one day. We should try our best to avoid the bad influence of oil and keep the stable development of the world.。