《Green shoots》考研时文阅读4

Green shoots

绿色崛起

Mar 19th 2009 | HONG KONG

From The Economist print edition

No matter how bad things get, people still need to eat

不管事情变得多糟糕，人们仍然需要食物

AT A time when much of the global economy is falling apart and demand both for consumer goods and the firms that make and finance them is collapsing, the notoriously cyclical world of agriculture is holding up remarkably well. Prices for grains and meat are down from the peaks of mid-2008, but are 30-50% above their averages over the past decade. There is reason to believe that this strength is more than just another of the many bubbles that have recently inflated, only to pop.

当全球经济体的一大部分开始解体，同时构成这些经济体并为其提供资金的消费品和实业的需求开始衰退的时候，总是周期性陷入困境的世界农业却开始持续向上的良好发展。2008年中期，世界谷物和肉类的价格开始从最高点回落，但是依旧比过去几十年的平均水平高30-50个百分点。我们有理由相信，与那些近期开始恶性膨胀而破碎的经济泡沫比起来，农业经济的抗打击强度要高得多。

Higher prices are hardly a universal blessing: they are good for farmers, many of whom are poor, but bad for consumers. Some of the increase can be blamed on the shift of crops from food to fuel, prompted by wildly inefficient subsidies. But high prices are also a sign of progress because their single largest cause is the steady increase in demand from poorer countries, as people there eat more food—especially more protein. More people are better nourished thanks to a bit more grain, a lot more meat, and much more milk.

偏高的价格注定不会是皆大欢喜的：这对于大部分还处在贫穷的农民来说是好事，但是对消费者来说却无疑是糟糕的。某些价格的上扬可以归咎于在离谱的低效补贴的刺激下，某些国家将原本是食物的农作物当作燃料来使用。但是高价同时也是产业的进步一个标志，因为价格升高的最大的独立因素是贫穷国家的需求正在不断平稳的上升，那里的人们开始需要更多的食物——特别是蛋白质。只要有多一些的谷物、肉类和牛奶，更多居民的营养状况将会更好。

China’s role has been profound, reflecting its enorm ous economic progress and huge population. In the past decade, says Carlo Caiani of Caiani & Company, an investment-advisory firm based in Melbourne, the consumption of milk has grown seven-fold, and that of olive oil six-fold. China is consuming twice as much vegetable oil (instead of less healthy pork fat), 60% more poultry, 30% more beef and 25% more wheat, and these are merely the obvious foods. Scores of niches have expanded dramatically: people are drinking four times as much wine, for example.

令人瞩目的经济进步和庞大的人口数量，让中国在这一方面扮演的角色更加的意义深远。根据墨尔本一家咨询公司Caiani & Company的Carlo Caiani的说法，与十年前相比，中国的牛奶和橄榄油的消费量分别增长了6倍和5倍，菜油（替代了不够健康的猪油）的消耗量翻了一番，家禽、牛肉和小麦同比上涨了60%、30%和25%。上面所列举的数据仅仅来自一些显而易见的食物，事实上许多市场的扩大是动态的，比如说，人们正在饮用四倍之多的啤酒。

And yet even with all this growth, people in China still, on average, consume only one-third as much milk and meat as people in wealthy countries such as Australia, America and Britain. The gap is even larger with India, which is also growing fast. Overall, protein intake in Europe and America is unlikely to expand much, but a combination of rising incomes and population in developing countries could increase demand by more than 5% annually for years to come. “Once people are accustomed to eating more protein, they won’t take it out of their diet,” says Mr Caiani.

虽然消费量上升的如此可观，但仅就牛奶和小麦两方面来看，中国人民的平均消费水平只是富裕国家如澳大利亚、美国和英国的三分之一。若拿印度来与这些发达国家比较，差距就更大了。总的来说，欧洲和美洲的蛋白质摄入量已经趋于饱和，但在发展中国家，收入和人口增长的双重刺激使得人民的食物需求每年以5%的速度递增。“当人们开始习惯蛋白质食物的时候，他们就不会想把它们从餐桌上拿走了”，Caiani 先生如是说。

Expanding supply at the same rate will be difficult, because the amount of arable land under cultivation is growing by only a fraction of a percentage point each year. In China and India many of the most fertile areas are the ones being developed for roads and factories. That means existing land is becoming more valuable, and must become more productive.

以相同的速率扩大供给量在未来将会愈加困难，因为可耕种耕地的数目每年只会以很小的百分比增加，更糟的是，在中国和印度，很多肥沃的土地被用来建设道路和工厂，这就意味着耕地更加宝贵，而产量必须更高才能满足人民的需求。

The consequences stretch from one end of the food chain to the other, as higher food prices prompt a response. BASF, one of the world’s largest produc ers of agrochemicals, saw 9% growth last year in agricultural sales, including 16% growth in Asia. It expects the industry to grow by 17% this year, which has begun well, the global economic tumult notwithstanding.

这种影响会从食物链的一端延伸到另一端，最终导致食品价格的升高。去年，世界最大的农业化学药品生产商之一BASF在农业领域的销售上升了9%，而在亚洲是16%。尽管世界经济持续动荡，但基于如此良好的开端，BASF期望今年的销售量能增长17%

Its competitors are also prospering. The share prices of Agrium, CF Industries, Bunge and Syngenta spiked last year along with food prices, then tumbled (along with the shares of nearly every other company), but then stabilised, even as the rest of the stockmarket continued to tank. Monsanto, which a decade ago had been praised and then trashed for selling highly efficient genetically modified seeds, has seen its popularity restored for exactly the same reason. After years of strong growth, and with the prospect of more to come, its