第四章决策的基础-精品文档
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• Outcome of this kind of decision making is satisfying decision, but not maximizing decision.（这种决策的结果 是令人满意的决策，而不是最优的。 ）
4.3.2 Are common errors committed in the
理性模型的修改 ）
4.3.1 What is Bounded Rationality?（什么是 有限理性 ）
• Behavior that is rational within the parameters of a simplified model that captures the essential features of a problem（在一个简化的模型参数内，抓住了问题的本质特 征的理性行为。）
问题清 单一而定 方案和 晰而且 义准确的 结果是 明确 目标 已知的
偏好 是
清楚 的
偏好是 一贯而 稳定的
不存在 时间或 成本约
束
最终选择 使效益最
大化
Rational Decision Making
4.3 the real world of managerial decision making: Modification of the Rational Model（管理决策的现实世界：
群体决策的技巧）
4.1 The decision-making Process
eight steps in decision-making process:决策 过程的八个步骤
识别 问题
确定决 策标准
确定决策 拟订备 标准权重 选方案
分析 方案
选择最 佳方案
Байду номын сангаас
实施 方案
评价决 策效果
4.2 Making Decisions: The Rational Model
（理解确定性、风险、不确定性以及与决策之间的关系。） • Describe the actions of the bounded-rational decision maker（描述有限
理性决策者的行为 ） • Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of
decisions that are used to solve them（判别两种决策问题类型，识别解决 这两种问题的方法。） • Define heuristics and explain how they affect the decision-making
process(定义直觉并解释他们是如何影响决策过程 )
• escalation of commitment: an increased commit-ment to a previous decision despite negative info.（认同的强化 ：不管负面的反应，人们 往往依然增强对先前决策的认同）
4.4 Decision making: A Contingency Approach（决策：一
个权变方法 ）
The types of problems managers face in decision-making situations often determine how a problem is treated.
• How do problems differ? • What is the difference between
Learning outcomes
Chapter summary Linking concepts to practice
【learning outcomes】 • Describe the steps in the decision-making process（描述决策过程的步骤） • Identify the assumptions of the rational decision-making model • Explain the limits to rationality（解释理性的限制条件） • Define certainty, risk, and uncertainty as they relate to decision making
C4 Foundations of Decision Making
About this chapter
Learning outcomes Chapter summary Linking concepts to practice
C4 Foundations of Decision Making
About this chapter
• Identify four decision-making styles • Describe the advantages and disadvantages of group decisions（描述团
体决策的优缺点） • Explain three ways to improving group decision making（学习三种改进
decision-making process?
• In order to avoid information overload, we rely on judgmental shortcuts called heuristics.（为了避免信息过载，我们依靠判断快捷方式被 称为直觉。 ）
• Availability heuristics is the tendency to base judgments on information that is readily available.（决策者倾向于以其方便获得的信 息来做判断 ）
• Representative heuristics is the tendency for people to base judgments of probability on things with which they are familiar.（决策 者以模拟的方式来评估事件发生的可能性 ）
4.3.2 Are common errors committed in the
理性模型的修改 ）
4.3.1 What is Bounded Rationality?（什么是 有限理性 ）
• Behavior that is rational within the parameters of a simplified model that captures the essential features of a problem（在一个简化的模型参数内，抓住了问题的本质特 征的理性行为。）
问题清 单一而定 方案和 晰而且 义准确的 结果是 明确 目标 已知的
偏好 是
清楚 的
偏好是 一贯而 稳定的
不存在 时间或 成本约
束
最终选择 使效益最
大化
Rational Decision Making
4.3 the real world of managerial decision making: Modification of the Rational Model（管理决策的现实世界：
群体决策的技巧）
4.1 The decision-making Process
eight steps in decision-making process:决策 过程的八个步骤
识别 问题
确定决 策标准
确定决策 拟订备 标准权重 选方案
分析 方案
选择最 佳方案
Байду номын сангаас
实施 方案
评价决 策效果
4.2 Making Decisions: The Rational Model
（理解确定性、风险、不确定性以及与决策之间的关系。） • Describe the actions of the bounded-rational decision maker（描述有限
理性决策者的行为 ） • Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of
decisions that are used to solve them（判别两种决策问题类型，识别解决 这两种问题的方法。） • Define heuristics and explain how they affect the decision-making
process(定义直觉并解释他们是如何影响决策过程 )
• escalation of commitment: an increased commit-ment to a previous decision despite negative info.（认同的强化 ：不管负面的反应，人们 往往依然增强对先前决策的认同）
4.4 Decision making: A Contingency Approach（决策：一
个权变方法 ）
The types of problems managers face in decision-making situations often determine how a problem is treated.
• How do problems differ? • What is the difference between
Learning outcomes
Chapter summary Linking concepts to practice
【learning outcomes】 • Describe the steps in the decision-making process（描述决策过程的步骤） • Identify the assumptions of the rational decision-making model • Explain the limits to rationality（解释理性的限制条件） • Define certainty, risk, and uncertainty as they relate to decision making
C4 Foundations of Decision Making
About this chapter
Learning outcomes Chapter summary Linking concepts to practice
C4 Foundations of Decision Making
About this chapter
• Identify four decision-making styles • Describe the advantages and disadvantages of group decisions（描述团
体决策的优缺点） • Explain three ways to improving group decision making（学习三种改进
decision-making process?
• In order to avoid information overload, we rely on judgmental shortcuts called heuristics.（为了避免信息过载，我们依靠判断快捷方式被 称为直觉。 ）
• Availability heuristics is the tendency to base judgments on information that is readily available.（决策者倾向于以其方便获得的信 息来做判断 ）
• Representative heuristics is the tendency for people to base judgments of probability on things with which they are familiar.（决策 者以模拟的方式来评估事件发生的可能性 ）