Generalizations of McShane's identity to hyperbolic cone-surfaces

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身份认同及文化自信 的英语作文

身份认同及文化自信 的英语作文

身份认同及文化自信的英语作文Identity and Cultural ConfidenceIdentity is a fundamental aspect of our existence, shaping our beliefs, behaviors, and interactions with the world around us. It is the essence of who we are, the unique combination of traits, experiences, and perspectives that define our place in society. As individuals, we navigate a complex web of personal, social, and cultural identities, each influencing and reinforcing the others.At the heart of identity lies the concept of cultural confidence. This refers to the sense of pride, belonging, and self-assurance that an individual or a group derives from their cultural heritage and traditions. It is the belief that one's cultural identity is valuable, worthy of respect, and deserving of preservation and celebration.In today's increasingly globalized world, the importance of cultural confidence has become more vital than ever. As we are exposed to a diverse array of cultures and belief systems, the need to maintain a strong sense of cultural identity has become paramount. This is not to suggest that we should reject or resist the influence of other cultures, but rather that we should embrace our own culturalheritage with a sense of pride and confidence.One of the key benefits of cultural confidence is the way it empowers individuals and communities to navigate the complexities of a rapidly changing world. When we are secure in our cultural identity, we are better equipped to engage with other cultures, to appreciate their unique perspectives, and to find common ground. This, in turn, fosters greater understanding, respect, and cooperation across cultural boundaries.Moreover, cultural confidence can have a profoundly positive impact on individual well-being. When we feel connected to our cultural roots, we experience a greater sense of belonging and self-worth. This can lead to improved mental health, stronger social bonds, and a deeper appreciation for the richness and diversity of human experience.However, the cultivation of cultural confidence is not without its challenges. In an increasingly homogenized global culture, where mass media and technology can erode the unique characteristics of local traditions, it can be difficult to maintain a strong sense of cultural identity. Additionally, the process of cultural assimilation and the pressure to conform to dominant cultural norms can pose significant threats to the preservation of minority or marginalized cultural identities.To address these challenges, it is crucial that we actively engage in the process of cultural preservation and transmission. This may involve the revitalization of traditional practices, the promotion of cultural education, and the amplification of diverse cultural narratives in the public sphere. By doing so, we can ensure that the rich tapestry of human cultures continues to thrive and evolve, enriching the lives of individuals and communities around the world.In conclusion, the concept of identity and cultural confidence is a vital aspect of the human experience. It is the foundation upon which we build our sense of self, our connections to others, and our understanding of the world around us. By embracing and celebrating our cultural heritage, we not only strengthen our own sense of identity but also contribute to the creation of a more inclusive, diverse, and harmonious global community.。

Cultural Identity 文化认同

Cultural  Identity  文化认同
B. Persisting in occidental heterogeneous culture
Those people are sensitive to western culture , custom , and settings and constantly meditate whether their own behaviors conform to the habits and standards of the westerners or not . Therefore , they sometimes underplay eastern culture consciously and follow the custom and ways of thinking of western people completely
China Should Preserve Cultural Identity in
Cross-Cultural Communication
1. China should be more cautious when face the impact of foreign culture. As for foreign culture, we should take the essence and discard the dregs
Identity 3. Construction of Cultural Identity 4. China Should Preserve Cultural Identity In
Cross-Cultural communication
Globalization
Identity
To talk about our identity, we try to answer the question: who am I? One’s identity consists roughly of those attributes that make one unique as an individual and different from others. Or it is the way one sees or defines oneself.

智慧树知到《东方遇见西方跨文化交际之旅》章节测试答案

智慧树知到《东方遇见西方跨文化交际之旅》章节测试答案

智慧树知到《东方遇见西方跨文化交际之旅》章节测试答案1、【单选题】 (20分)How many types of culture mentioned in this chapter?BA、5B、2C、4D、32、【单选题】 (20分)Which kind of expression does not be included in immaterial aspects of culture?DA、scienceB、literatureC、principles of social organizationD、art3、【单选题】 (20分)Technology belongs to __A______?A、material cultureB、immaterial cultureC、scienceD、None of them4、【单选题】 (20分)Eye contact shows competence in western cultures whereas, while Asian cultures find too much eye contact disrespectful. This fact illustrates one of five elements involved in communication process-----_____A___.A、ContextB、MessageC、ParticipantsD、Feedback5、【单选题】 (20分)A fragrant scent or a warm hug may contribute as much to meaning as what is seen or heard. This fact illustrates one of five elements involved in communication process-----____C____.A、MessageB、ParticipantsC、ChannelsD、Feedback第二章1、【单选题】 (20分)What does paralanguage study?DA、SpaceB、GesturesC、TimeD、Vocal elements2、【单选题】 (20分)Deception is typically thought of as the intentional act of (B) information for certain communicative purposes CA、exaggeratingB、concealingC、alteringD、omitting3、【单选题】 (20分)How long should a person maintain eye contact with his or her audience while talking?CA、20%-30% of the timeB、30%-40% of the timeC、60%-70% of the timeD、50%-60% of the time4、【单选题】 (20分)If some people clench teeth or fists to show endurance or anger without saying anything, for what is the nonverbal cue used?AA、SubstitutingB、ComplementingC、RegulatingD、Contradicting5、【单选题】 (20分)In which of the following cases is it okay to be five minutes late without having to offer much of an apology or explanation? AA、Family reunionB、Job interviewC、First dateD、Work第三章1、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following statements concerning handshaking is not right?AA、In the United States, people usually give a soft handshakeB、In Egypt handshake is softer, not as strong.C、In Canada, people usually give a short but rather firm handshake.D、In Mexico, handshakes usually last a little longer.2、【单选题】 (20分)Which one of the following is not one of the three fundamental elements to build up intercultural communication competence proposed by Byram? CA、KnowledgeB、SkillC、StrategyD、Awareness3、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following is not included in the Developmental Model of Intercultural Sensitivity BA、AcceptanceB、MaximizationC、DenialD、Defense4、【单选题】 (20分)When will the reverse culture shock take place?BA、When are first landed in the foreign countryB、When you return to your home culture after growing accustomed to the new oneC、Three months after you arrived at the foreign countryD、Immediately after you return to your home culture5、【单选题】 (20分)In which of the following countries, it is appropriate to use the ok sign as indication of strong approval or goodness?AA、U.S.B、TurkeyC、BrazilD、Russia第四章1、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following statements is TRUE of collectivism? CA、Collectivist cultures are described as “I” cultures.B、Collectivists tend to draw attention to themselves and express unique opinions.C、Uniformity and conformity are stressed in collectivist cultures.D、Members of collectivist cultures value open discussion of disagreement.2、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following statements is NOT true?A、Eastern collectivism is tied to Confucianism.B、Culture shock may occur at the individualist-collectivist divide, but the gap can be divided.C、Individualism can be traced to the philosophy of liberalism.D、The basic social unit in collectivist cultures is the autonomous self.3、【单选题】 (20分)deals with a society’s tolerance for uncertainty and ambiguity. BA、Power distanceB、Uncertainty avoidanceC、Cultural valuesD、Cultural dimension4、【单选题】 (20分)In the culture, the interest of the individual prevails over the interests of the group. CA、collectivismB、masculinityC、individualistD、femininity5、【单选题】 (20分)Cultures in which less has to be said or written because more of the meaning is in the physical environment or already by people are C .A、indirect contextB、low contextC、high contextD、direct context第五章1、【单选题】 (20分)In the initial stages of a negotiation, what would German business managers usually do? BA、Getting to know the individuals of the “opposing party” by socializing.B、Ask numerous questions concerning technical details.C、Get right down to the business.D、Have a good drink.2、【单选题】 (20分)Which one is not one of the needs mentioned by Schultz? DA、inclusionB、controlC、affectionD、respect3、【单选题】 (20分)Find out the families of one of following countries which are collectivist families. CA、AmericaB、BritainC、KoreaD、France4、【单选题】 (20分)In some countries, students feel comfortable in structured learning situations and are rewarded for accuracy in problem solving. Which dimension is this situation related to? DA、masculinity and femininityB、individualism and collectivismC、power distanceD、uncertainty avoidance5、【判断题】 (20分)Respect is a perception of the confidence we place in other people’s promises. AA、错B、对第六章1、【单选题】 (20分)The fact that people set their mind that all African Americans like to eat chicken is an example of____C____?A、discriminationB、prejudiceC、stereotypeD、racism2、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following is not a gender stereotype?AA、Blonde equals to beauty.B、Women can’t do as good of a job as a man.C、Women aren't as smart as a man.D、Guys are messy and unclean.3、【单选题】 (20分)The statement that women in Finland are paid lesser than their male counterparts in every field for doing the same job, is an example of ________ prejudice.AA、genderB、nationalC、ageD、racial4、【单选题】 (20分)When an elder-care facility refuses to install Internet technology because of the belief that older people don't have the energy or ability to learn web navigation, they are acting upon ____C____ prejudice.A、racialB、nationalC、ageD、gender5、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following statements is not an example statement of colorism? AA、An employer might run a thorough background check on an applicant of color, while accepting a job applicant from a prospective white employee with no additional documentation.B、For years in the black community, lighter skin was viewed as superior to darker skinC、Anyone with skin color that was lighter than a brown paper lunch bag was welcomed into elite organizations in the black community.D、In Asia, sales of skin whitening products remain sky high.第七章1、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following styles of clothing may not express the Indian cultural identity?BA、DhotiB、KimonoC、KurtaD、Sari2、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following can indicate people’s cultural identity?BA、ClothingB、All of themC、LanguageD、Food3、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following statement concerned with cultural identity is wrong? BA、Cultural identity is bureaucratically or self-ascribed membership in a specific culture.B、Cultural identity is the feeling of not belonging to a certain group.C、Awareness of cultural identity is essential to effective cross-cultural communication.D、Understanding and celebrating cultural identity can boost pride and self-esteem.4、【单选题】 (20分)In Jean S. Phinney’s Model of Ethnic Identity Development, cultural Identity is often developed through a three-stage process, which are ___A_____.A、all of themB、unexamined cultural identityC、cultural identity achievementD、cultural identity search5、【单选题】 (20分)Which of the following examples of thoughts does not belong to unexamined cultural identity stage? AA、“There are a lot of non-Japanese people around me, and it gets pretty confusing to try and decide who I am.”B、“My parents tell me about where they lived, but what do I care? I've never lived there.”C、“I don’t have a culture. I’m just an American”.D、“Why do I have to learn who was the first black woman to do this or that? I’m just not too interested.”第八章1、【单选题】 (20分)In the tree-tiered concept of globalization, which one is the base and core? DA、financial globalizationB、political globalizationC、cultural globalizationD、economic globalization2、【单选题】 (20分)Silk Road is an evidence of ____D____.A、Environment protectionB、The spread of knowledgeC、Immigration in ancient timeD、International trade3、【单选题】 (20分)The influence on the internal affairs of other countries is generally referred to as “___C_____”.A、hard powerB、multi-polarizationC、soft powerD、hedonism4、【单选题】 (20分)According to the content we’ve learnt, KungFu Panda is a typical example of “_____C___”A、homogenizationB、none of aboveC、hybridizationD、cultural imperialism5、【单选题】 (20分)Which one is not one of the ideas of “Global Citizenship”? BA、One’s identity goes beyond geography or political borders;B、All the people in the world should love each other;C、The human community on the earth is interdependent and wholeD、Humankind is essentially one;。

《典型美国佬》:美国民族身份认同的消解和建构

《典型美国佬》:美国民族身份认同的消解和建构

《典型美国佬》:美国民族身份认同的消解和建构闫正坤【摘要】Over years, American identity has been not only the core value of American literary criticism, but also the constant interest for ethnic writersto question and enhance. This essay textualizes Typical American, a well-received novel by the contemporary Chinese American writer Gish Jen, and analyzes both American stereotypes (with their incarnates in the novel)and the image of family, through which, the essay comes to the conclusion that Gish Jen not only invalidates the fixed American identity and breaks the barriers of Orientalism, but also reconstructs a family-based identity in the muhicultural context.%美国民族身份认同是美国文学批评所关注的核心问题,亦是族裔作家不断质疑完善的重要概念之一。

文章以当代华裔作家任碧莲的小说《典型美国佬》为文本,审视典型美国人固有形象及其在小说中的化身以及家庭意象。

她不但消解了美国固有的民族认同,突破了东方主义的藩篱,而且重新建构了一个多元文化语境下的以家庭为核心的杂和认同。

【期刊名称】《遵义师范学院学报》【年(卷),期】2012(014)002【总页数】4页(P65-68)【关键词】美国民族认同;固有形象;消解;家庭【作者】闫正坤【作者单位】安徽财经大学外国语学院,安徽蚌埠233030【正文语种】中文【中图分类】I106.4一、引言《典型美国佬》是美国华裔作家任碧莲(Gish Jen)的第一部小说。

认同identity英文作文

认同identity英文作文

认同identity英文作文Identity is a complex and multifaceted concept that encompasses a person's sense of self, their individuality, and their place in the world. It is shaped by a variety of factors, including cultural background, personal experiences, and societal influences. Our identity is what makes us unique and different from others, and it is something that we should embrace and celebrate.Our identity is constantly evolving and changing as we grow and experience new things. It is not static or fixed, but rather a fluid and dynamic aspect of who we are. Embracing our identity means accepting and acknowledgingall the different parts of ourselves, even the ones that may not fit neatly into societal norms or expectations.Identity is also closely tied to our sense of belonging and connection to others. It is through our identity that we form relationships and build communities with people who share similar experiences and values. Our identity canserve as a source of strength and empowerment, allowing us to stand up for what we believe in and advocate for change.At the same time, our identity can also be a source of struggle and conflict, especially when it comes to navigating the complexities of a diverse and ever-changing world. It is important to recognize that everyone'sidentity is valid and deserving of respect, regardless of whether it aligns with our own beliefs and perspectives.In conclusion, embracing our identity is an ongoing journey that requires self-reflection, empathy, and an open mind. It is a deeply personal and individual experiencethat should be celebrated and respected in all its diverse forms. Our identity is what makes us who we are, and it is something that should be cherished and honored.。

Lecture 4.Transcendentalism

Lecture 4.Transcendentalism


• • •
I. Transcendentalism
• • • • 1. 2. 3. 4. Definition Concepts Significance and weaknesses Representatives
1. Definition
Appeared in 1830s, Transcendentalism is the summit of the Romantic Movement in the history of American literature in the 19th century. Transcendentalism has been defined philosophically as “the recognition (认知) in man of the capacity of knowing truth intuitively(直觉地)”. “超验主义承 认人具有本能了解或认识真理能力,能超过感官 获取知识。‖ (p.49)
3. Significance (1) It served as an ethical guide to life for a young nation and brought about the idea that human can be perfected by nature. (2) It advocated idealism that was greatly needed in a rapidly expanded economy. (3) It helped to create the first American renaissance – one of the most prolific period in American literature under the influence of Emerson and Thoreau.

A generalization of Reifenberg's theorem in $R^3$

A generalization of Reifenberg's theorem in $R^3$

a rX iv:mat h /67441v1[mat h.DG ]18J ul26A generalization of Reifenberg’s theorem in R 3G.David,T.De Pauw T.Toro ∗Abstract In 1960Reifenberg proved the topological disc property.He showed that a subset of R n which is well approximated by m -dimensional affine spaces at each point and at each (small)scale is locally a bi-H¨o lder image of the unit ball in R m .In this paper we prove that a subset of R 3which is well approximated by a minimal cone at each point and at each (small)scale is locally a bi-H¨o lder deformation of a minimal cone.We also prove an analogous result for more general cones in R n .1Introduction In 1960,thanks to the development of algebraic topology,Reifenberg was able to formulate the Plateau problem for m -dimensional surfaces of varying topological type in R k (see [R1]).He proved that given a set Γ⊂R k homeomorphic to S m −1there exists a set Σ0with ∂Σ0=Γwhich minimizes the H m Hausdorffmeasure among all competitors in the appropriate class.Furthermore he showed that for almost every x ∈Σ0there exists a neighborhood of x which is a topological disk of dimension m .A remarkable result in [R1]is the Topological Disk Theorem.In general terms it says that if a set is close to an m -plane in the Hausdorffdistance sense at all points and at all (small enough)scales,then it is locally biH¨o lder equivalent to a ball of R m .Using a monotonicity formula for the density,Reifenberg proved that some open subset of full measure of Σ0satisfies this condition.In 1964he proved an Epiperimetric inequality for solutions to the Plateau problem described above.This allowed him to show that the minimizer Σ0is locally real analytic (see [R2],and [R3]).Although the Topological Disk Theorem has never again been used as a tool to study the regularity of minimal surfaces it has played a role in understanding their singularities as well as the singular set of energy minimizing harmonic maps (see [HL]).Reifenberg’s proof has been adapted to producebiLipschitz,quasi-symmetric and biH¨o lder parameterizations both for subsets of Euclidean space and general metric spaces (under the appropriate flatness assumptions).See [To],[DT],and [CC].In 1976J.Taylor [Ta]classified the tangent cones for Almgren almost-minimal sets in R 3.She showed that there are three types of nonempty minimal cones of dimension 2in R 3:the planes,sets that are obtained by taking the product of a Y in a plane with a linein the orthogonal direction,and sets composed of six angular sectors bounded by four half lines that start from the same point and make(maximal)equal angles.See the more precise Definitions2.2and2.3.By lack of better names,we shall call these minimal cones sets of type1,2,and3respectively.In this paper we generalize Reifenberg’s Topological Disk Theorem to the case when the set is close in the Hausdorffdistance sense to a set of type1,2or3at every point and every(small enough)ly,if E is a closed set in R3which is sufficiently close to a two-dimensional minimal cone at all scales and locations,then there is,at least locally,a bi-H¨o lder parameterization of E by a minimal cone.Reifenberg’s theorem corresponds to the case of approximation by planes.Let usfirst state the main result and comment later. Theorem1.1For eachε∈(0,10−15),we canfindα∈(0,1)such the following holds.Let E⊂R3be a compact set that contains the origin,and assume that for each x∈E∩B(0,2) and each radius r>0such that B(x,r)⊂B(0,2),there is a minimal cone Z(x,r)that contains x,such that(1.1)D x,r(E,Z(x,r))≤ε,where we use the more convenient variant of Hausdorffdistance D x,r defined by1D x,r(E,F)=Notice that by(1.4)and(1.5)the restriction of f to Z∩B(0,3/2)provides a biH¨o lderparameterization a piece of E that contains E∩B(0,1).This may be enough information, but in some cases it may also be good to know that this parameterization comes from abiH¨o lder local homeomorphism of R3,as in the statement,because this yields informationon the position of E in space.For instance,we can use Theorem1.1to construct local retractions of space near E onto E.Remark1.1We shall see that when Z(0,2)is a plane,we can take Z to be a plane;whenZ(0,2)is a set of type2centered at the origin,we can take Z to be a set of type2centered at the origin;when Z(0,2)is a set of type3centered at the origin,we can take Z to be aset of type3centered at the origin.In addition,our proof will yield that(1.7)B(0,17/10)⊂f(B(0,18/10))⊂B(0,2),(1.8)E∩B(0,18/10)⊂f(Z∩B(0,19/10))⊂E∩B(0,2),and that(1.5)and(1.6)holds for x,y∈B(0,18/10).In fact,we shall omit the case of the plane(too easy and well known),and concentrateon the two other special cases.The general case will essentially follow.Remark1.2It would be a little too optimistic to think that f is quasisymmetric.This is already false when Z(0,2)is a plane,because E could be the product of R with a snowflakein R2.Remark1.3Theorem1.1can probably be generalized to a number of situations,where approximation by minimal sets of types1,2,and3is replaced with approximation by varioustypes of sets with a hierarchical simplex structure.We did notfind the optimal way to statethis,and probably this would make the proof a little heavier.What we shall do instead is state a slightly more general result in Theorem2.2,prove Theorem1.1essentially as itis,and add a few comments from place to place to explain how to generalize the proof forTheorem2.2.A more general statement,if ever needed,is left out for future investigation.Our proof will use the hierarchical structure of E.We shall see that E∩B(0,2)splitsnaturally into three disjoint subsets E1,E2,and E3,where E j is the set of points where Elooks like a set of type j in small balls centered at x(more precise definitions will be given in Section4).If Z=Z(0,2)is a plane,we do not need sets of type2or3in smaller balls,and we are in the situation of Reifenberg’s theorem.Two other main cases will remain,as in Remark1.2.The case when Z is set of type2,with its spine passing through the origin(see Definition2.2below),and the case when Z is set of type3centered at the origin.In thefirst case,we shall see that E3∩B(0,199/100)is empty and E2is locally a Reifenberg-flat one-dimensional set;in the second case,E3∩B(0,3/2)is just composed of one point near the origin,and away from this point E2is locally a Reifenberg-flat.See the end of Section4for details3The sets E1and E2will play a special role in the proof.Even though we shall in fact construct f directly as an infinite composition of homeomorphisms in space(that move points at smaller and smaller dyadic scales),we shall pay much more attention to the definition of f on E2,and then E,just as if we were defining ffirst from the spine of Z to E2,then from Z to E,then on the rest of B(0,3/2).The construction yields that the restriction of f to Z to each of the three or six faces of Z is of class C1if the approximation at small scales is sufficiently good(for instance if we can takeε=Crβon balls of radius r),see Section10.Theorem1.1will be used in[D1]and[D2]to give a slightly different proof of J.Taylor’s regularity result for minimal sets from[Ta].The plan for the rest of this paper is as follows.In Section2we define sets of type2 and3and state a uniform version of our main theorem.We also discuss the moreflexible version of Theorem1.1mentioned in Remark1.3.In Section3we record some of the simple geometrical facts about minimal sets of types1,2,3,and in particular lower bounds on their relative Hausdorffdistances,that will be used in the proof.In Section4we show that E∩B(0,2)is the disjoint union of E1,E2and E3,that E1is locally Reifenberg-flat,and that E3is discrete.In Section5we define the partitions of unity which we use in the construction of the biH¨o lder parameterization.In Section6we construct a parameterization of E2when E3is empty.In Section7we extend this to a parameterization of E.In Section8we explain how to modify the construction when there is a tetrahedral point in E3.In Section9we extend the parameterization to the whole ball.Finally,in Section10,we prove that our parameterization of E is C1on each face of Z when the numbers D x,r(E,Z(x,r))tend to0 sufficiently fast,uniformly in x,as r tends to0.Acknowledgments:Part of this work was completed in Autumn,2005.T.Toro was vis-iting the Newton Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Cambridge,U.K.and the University College London in London.She would like to thank these institutions for their hospitality. 2Two other statementsWe start with a uniform version of Theorem1.1.Definition2.1A set E⊂R3isε-Reifenbergflat(of dimension2)if for each compact set K⊂R3there exists r K>0such that for x∈E∩K and r<r K,D x,r(E,L)≤ε,(2.1)infL∋xwhere the infimimum is taken over all planes L containing x.Note that this definition is only meaningful forεsmall.Reifenberg’s Topological Disk Theorem gives local parameterizations ofε-Reifenbergflat sets.We want to extend this to4theε-minimal sets defined below,butfirst we give a full description of sets of type2and3. Recall that sets of type1are just planes.Definition2.2Define Prop⊂R2byProp={(x1,x2):x1≥0,x2=0}(x1,x2):x1≤0,x2=−√3x1 .Define Y0⊂R3by Y0=Prop×R.The spine of Y0is the line L0={x1=x2=0}.A set of type2is a set Y=R(Y0),where R is the composition of a translation and a rotation.The spine of Y is the line R(L0).Definition2.3Set A1=(1,0,0),A2= −123,−√3,√3 ,and A4= −126))⊂B(x,2r),23r(2.6)E∩B(x,r)⊂f(Z∩B(0,Thus f is a local homeomorphism of the ambient space which sends a minimal cone into theǫ-minimal set.Theorem2.1is an immediate consequence of Theorem1.1.Also,if we can takeεto tend to0in(2.3)(uniformly in x∈E∩K)when r tends to0,then(2.4)holds with constants that tend to0when r tends to0.Let us now try to generalize Theorem1.1.We want to extend the notion of sets of type 1,2,or3.Let usfix integers d≥2(the dimension of our sets)and n≥d+1(the ambient dimension).Sets of type G1are just d-planes in R n.A generalized propeller in R2will be any union P of three co-planar half lines with the same origin,and that meet with angles larger thanπ/2at this point.Incidentally,π/2was chosen a little at random here,and we shall not try to see whether it can be replaced by smaller angles.A set of type G2is a set Y=R(P×R d−1),where P is a generalized propeller in R2 and R is an isometry of R n.When n>d+1,we abused notation slightly,we should have written Y=R(P×R d−1×{0})to account for the last n−d−1coordinates.The spine of R(P×R d−1×{0})is R({0}×R d−1×{0}).A two-dimensional set of type G3in R m is a set T that we can construct as follows.We pick distinct points A j,1≤j≤k,in the unit sphere of R m.Then we choose a graph,as follows.We pick G⊂{1,···,k}2which is symmetric(i.e.,(i,j)∈G when(j,i)∈G),does not meet the diagonal,and is such that for each i∈{1,···,k},there are exactly three j=i such that(i,j)∈G.We callΓthe union of the segments[A i,A j],(i,j)∈G,and then set T={tγ;t≥0andγ∈Γ}(T is the cone overΓ).Equivalently,for each(i,j)∈G,we set F i,j={tz;t≥0and z∈[A i,A j]},and T is the union of the3k/2faces F i,j.In particular, k is even.We add a few regularity constraints.First,the interior of a face F i,j never meets another face,so the faces only meet by sets of three along half lines L j=[0,A j).For each j, exactly three faces F i,j meet L j,and we require that they make angles larger thanπ/2along L j.Thus the union of three half planes that contains these three faces is a two-dimensional set of type G2.We also require that(2.7)|A i−A j|≥τ0for i=jand(2.8)dist(F i,j∩∂B(0,1),F i′,j′∩∂B(0,1))≥τ0when F i,j∩F i′,j′=∅,for some small positive constantτ0that we pick in advance.Another way to state the constraints is to considerΓ′=T∩∂B(0,1):we wantΓ′to be composed of not too small arcs of circles that only meet at their ends,by sets of three,and with angles greater thanπ/2.In addition,we only allow two arcs to be very close when they share at least an end.Let us also allow the case when more than one arc may connect a given pair of points A j(this would imply changing our notation a tiny bit,and taking a graph G that is not6necessarily contained in{1,···,k}2),but demand that k≥4(to avoid the case of a set of type G2).A set of type G3(of dimension d in R n)is a set Z=R(T×R d−2),where R is an isometry of R n and T is a two-dimensional set of type G3in R n−d+2.The spine of Z is the union L of the half lines L i when Z=T is two-dimensional,and R(L×R d−2)when Z=R(T×R d−2).Denote by T Gi the collection of sets of of type Gi(of dimension d in R n),and by T G the union of the three classes T Gi.We claim that in Theorem1.1,we can replace the classof minimal sets with the class T G,as follows.Theorem2.2Let n and d be as above.Let E⊂R n be a compact set that contains the origin,and suppose that for each x∈E∩B(0,2)and r>0such that B(x,r)⊂B(0,2), we canfind Z(x,r)∈T G that contains x,such that D x,r(E,Z(x,r))≤ε.Ifε>0is smallenough,depending only on n,d,andτ0,there is a set Z∈T G such that(1.3)–(1.6)hold. Here againαdepends only onε,n,d,andτ0,and we can takeα=C(n,d,τ0)εforεsmall.The reader may be surprised that we do not require any coherence between the various sets Z(x,r),but this coherence will follow automatically from the fact that D x,r(E,Z(x,r))≤εfor many x and r.For instance,if d=2and Z(0,2)is of type G3,with a center at the origin,our proof will show that for r small,there is a point x r∈E,close to0,such that Z(x r,r)is of type G3,and the number k of half-lines in the spine of Z(x r,r)is the same asfor Z(0,2).The point is that angles between the faces may vary little by little when x and r vary,but things like the type of Z(x,r)and the number k cannot jump randomly.There is an analogue of Theorem2.1in the context of Theorem2.2,which the readermay easily state.The proof of Theorem2.2will almost be the same as for Theorem1.1;what we shall do is proceed with the proof of Theorem1.1,and indicate from time to time which modifications are required for Theorem2.2.3Simple geometrical factsWe shall record in this section a few geometrical properties of the minimal cones that will be used in the construction.The statements will come with various numbers,like1/3or 1/4in the next lemma;these numbers are hopefully correct,but their precise values do not matter,in the sense that it is easy to adapt the value of later constants to make the proof work anyway.In particular,this is what would happen with the proof of Theorem2.2.This means that the reader may skip the proofs if she believes that the results of this section are true with different constants.The geometrical facts below will be used extensively in Section 4,to establish the hierarchical structure of E.Ourfirst lemma says that the Hausdorffdistances between sets of type1,2,and3,are not too small.7Lemma3.1Let Z be a minimal cone of type3centered at x.Then(3.1)D x,r(Z,Y)≥1/3for r>0whenever Y is a set of type1or2.Similarly,(3.2)D x,r(Y,P)>1/3for r>0when Y is a set of type2centered at x and P is a plane,and(3.3)D x,r(Y,P)>1/4for r>0when Y is a set of type2or3whose spine contains x and P is a plane.Proof.We start with the proof of(3.1).By translation,dilation,and rotation invariance,we may assume that x=0,r=1,and Z is the set T0of Definition2.3.It will be good to know that if P is any plane through the origin andπdenotes the orthogonal projection ontoP,then(3.4)B(0,1/3)∩P⊂π(T0∩B(0,1)).Let Q denote the solid tetrahedron with vertices A j,1≤j≤4,(i.e.,the convex hull of the A j),where the A j are as in Definition2.3.It is clear that B(0,1/3)lies on the right ofthe left face of Q(where thefirst coordinate is−1/3).By symmetry,B(0,1/3)lies in Q, because it lies on the right side of each face.Also observe that T0∩Q separates the(open) faces of Q from each other inside Q.For instance,the component in Q\T0of the lower faceis a pyramidal domain bounded by three faces of T0.Let z∈B(0,1/3)∩P be given,and letℓdenote the line through z perpendicular to P.Thenℓmeets Q because B(0,1/3)⊂Q.First suppose that it does not touch any edge of Q.Then it enters Q through one(open)face and leaves it through another one,so it meets T0∩Q.Ifℓtouches a edge of Q,it meets T0∩Q trivially(because the edges are contained in T0).Thusℓmeets T0∩B(0,1)(except perhaps ifℓcontains one of the A j),and hence z∈π(T0∩B(0,1)).The remaining case whenℓcontains some A j is easily obtained by density(and anyway we don’t need it);(3.4)follows.Return to(3.1).If Y is of type2,choose P orthogonal to the spine of Y;thenπ(Y) is a propeller(a set like Prop in(2.2)),and we canfind z∈∂B(0,1/3)∩P such that dist(z,π(Y))≥1/3.Set z n=(1−2−n)z for n>1.By(3.4)we canfind y n∈T0∩B(0,1) such thatπ(y n)=z n.Then dist(y n,Y)=dist(z n,π(Y))≥1/3−2−n,and(3.1)follows from the definition(1.2)The case when Y is a plane is even easier;we choose P perpendicular to Y,so thatπ(Y)is a line.So(3.1)holds in all cases.Let us now prove(3.2).We may assume that x=0and Y is the set Y0=Prop×R in(2.2).Let P be a plane,suppose that D x,r(Y,P)≤1/3,and let usfind a contradiction. First we want to show that P is almost horizontal.Call P0the horizontal plane R2×{0}, and denote by b1,b2,and b3the three points of∂B(0,9)∩ Prop×{0} .108Each b j lies in Y∩B(0,1),so we canfind b′j in P∩B(b j,1/3).Call d the smallest possible distance from a p j to the line through the other two p l.Then d corresponds to the case when,for instance,p j lies at the extreme right of the left-most disk D j and the two other p l lie at the extreme left of the D l.We get that d=92−2·160.Recall that P goes through the b′j.The fact that d>0(or that the p j are not aligned) already implies that P is a graph over P0.We want to show that it is a1-Lipschitz graph, or equivalently that(3.5)|v3|≤|π(v)|when v is a unit vector in the(direction of)the plane P,and v3denotes its last coordinate. Since the triangle with vertices b′j is nondegenerate,we can write v=α(b′j−c j),where α∈R\{0},1≤j≤3,and c j lies in the opposite side[b′k,b′l].Since c j is a convex combination of b′k and b′l,the size of its last coordinate is at most13.On the other hand,|π(b′j−c j)|≥d=413<4110)and b5=(0,0,95−215, while|π(v)|≤21034=173·2054|π(v)|instead of(3.5).Now we take b4=0and b5=(0,0,99100−1100,and |π(v)|≤1100|π(v)|>40Notice that even for sets of type T Gi,Lemma3.1is very easy to prove by compactness, when we allow very small constants instead of1/3and1/4.The next lemmas will make it easier to apply Lemma3.1.Lemma3.2Let T be a minimal cone of type3,and let B be a ball such that54times the radius)does not contain the center of T.Then thereis a minimal cone Y of type1or2such that Y∩B=T∩B.Proof.Again this would be very easy,even for sets of type T Gi,if we allowed a verylarge constant instead of54replaced with the betterconstantα−1,whereα=(2/3)1/2(observe that5Let P denote the plane through0,A2,and A3,and set x t=(−t,0,0)for t>0;we claim√3z=0(just check that0,that dist(x t,P)=αt.Indeed,an equation of P is2√12=αt,as announced. A2,and A3satisfy the equation).Then dist(x t,P)=(2Let x=0be given,and set B x=B(x,α|x|).We just checked that when x=x t,B x does not meet the three faces on the left of T0.For a general x,B x cannot meet the three faces at the same time,because the optimal position for this to happen would precisely be when x lies on the negativefirst axis.By symmetry,B x never meets the three faces of T that bound a given connected component of R3\T.So the worse that it can do is meet the three faces of T that share a single edge[0,A j)(if B x meets two opposite faces,it also meets the three faces that bound some connected component).Supposefirst that B x meets three such faces,and let Y denote the set of type2that contains these faces.We claim that(3.6)T∩B x=Y∩B x.The direct inclusion is clear,because B x only meets the three faces of T that are contained in Y.For the converse inclusion,we just need to check that F∩B x⊂F′∩B x when F is a face of Y and F′is the face of T that is contained in F.Let y∈F∩B x be given.By assumption,B x meets F′,so we can pick z∈F′∩B x.Since B x is open,we can even pick z in the interior of F′.Notice that the segment[y,z]lies in F∩B x by convexity.In addition, (y,z)does not meet the spine of Y(because z lies in the interior of F).Now B x does not meet the other edges of T(those that are not contained in the spine of Y),because if it meets an edge e,it also meets the three faces of T that touch e.So(y,z)does not meet the boundary of F′,and y∈F′.Our claim follows.Next suppose that B x only meets two faces of T.Still denote by Y the set of type2 that contains them.As before,T∩B x⊂Y∩B x trivially.To prove the converse inclusion, consider a face F of Y,andfirst assume that the face F′of T that it contains meets B x. Pick z∈F′∩B x.For each y∈F∩B x,the segment[x,y]is contained in B x,hence it does not meet the boundary of F′(because if B x meets any edge of T,it meets at least three faces),so it is contained in F′,and y∈F′.We just proved that F∩B x⊂F′∩B x.Call F1,F2,and F3the three face of Y,and denote by F′j the face of T which is contained in F j.Exactly two of the F′j meet B x,and the third one does not;let us assume that this last one is F′3.We just need to check that F3does not meet B x either.Suppose it does.Let y j be a point of F j∩B x,j∈{1,2,3}.Call y′j the orthogonal projection of y j onto the plane P through the center of B x and perpendicular to the spine L of Y;then y′j∈F j∩B x as well. Call p the point of L∩P;by convexity of B x and because p is a convex combination of the three y′j,B x contains p.We reached the desired contradiction,because p lies on an edge of P and B x does not meet edges in the present case.So we proved(3.6)in this second case.Finally assume that B x only meets one face F′of T.Then it does not meet any edge of T,so if Y denotes the plane that contains F′,T∩B x contains Y∩B x(as before,B x does not meet the boundary of F′in Y).In this case also we have(3.6).We just proved that for x=0,we canfind a set Y of type1or2such that(3.6)holds. Now let B be as in the statement,and call x its center and r its radius.We know that10B(x,5rLemma3.3Let Z be a minimal cone of type3centered at z,and let T be a minimal cone.If D x,r(T,Z)<1/3,then T is of type3and its center lies in B(z,5r/3).Proof.Let Z and T be as in the statement.If T is of type1or2,we can apply Lemma3.1 directly to get a contradiction.So T is of type3,and let t denote its center.By Lemma3.2, we canfind a set Y of type1or2that coincides with T in B=B(z,4r),Y coincides with T in B(z,43Lemma3.4Let Z be a set of type2or3.Suppose that the ball B(x,r)meets at least two faces of Z,or that Z does not coincide with any plane in B(x,r).Then the distance from x to the spine of Z is at most6r/5.Proof.For sets of type G2or G3(and with6/5replaced with a large constant),this is a simple consequence of(2.8).We now return to the standard case.Let L denote the spine of Z.We can assume that B=B(x,r)does not meet L.If Z does not coincide with any plane in B,it meets at least one face F;call P the plane that contains F.Since B does not meet L,it does not meet the boundary of F in P,so P∩B⊂Z.Then B meets some otherface of F′of Z.Call P′the plane that contains F′,and set D=P∩P′and d=dist(x,D).√Then r≥d cos(30◦)=d3/2≥5/6.So we can assume that Z is of type3.If B(x,d)meets L,then dist(x,L)≤d≤6r/5as needed. Otherwise,P∩B(x,d)⊂F,because B(x,d)meets F and does not meet the boundary of F in P.But P∩B(x,d)goes all the way to the point of D that minimizes the distance to x,so this point lies in L and dist(x,L)≤d.Lemma3.4follows.and(4.3)c(x,r)=inf D x,r(E,T);T is a set of type3centered at x .It is not always true that either a(x,r),b(x,r),or c(x,r)is small(when x∈E and B(x,r)⊂B(0,2)),because,for instance Z(x,r)may be a minimal cone of type3centered anywhere in B(x,r).The pairs where either a(x,r),b(x,r),or c(x,r)is small are interesting to study. Definition4.1Let x∈E∩B(0,2)be given.We say that:•x is of type1when b(x,r)≤1500εfor all r small,•x is of type32as it is,and the value of a8=7follows from the geometry.Then a9=10−3just needsto be small,depending on a5and a6.Also,a10=11just needs to be a little larger than a7. The constant a11=15in Corollary4.1just needs to be larger than2a8.The constants a12=10−3,a13=10−3,and a14=132in Lemma4.3are just geometric constants that come from Lemma3.3.Ourfirst constraint on a3comes from Lemma4.3and is that a3≥a14.No constraint comes from Lemma4.4;the constant in(4.12)is just the same as a11in Corollary4.1.In Lemma4.5,we just need a15=25needs to be large enough(it needs to be larger than 10in our proof,because we want the pair(z1,r/10)to satisfy the assumptions in the lemma, a little above(4.19));other constraints will come later.The value of a16=600follows by geometric computations,and so does a17=150in(4.15).We need to pick a3≥a17in Definition4.1.Thefirst constraint on a2in Definition4.1is that a2be larger than the constant in(4.20).12The constant a18=17in Lemma4.6is just a geometric constant.In(4.24)and the few lines above,10−3needs to be replaced with a9from Lemma4.2.A few lines later,we only get that b(x,r)≤a19ε,instead of500ε;this gives a new constraint on a2,namely that a2≥a19(so that we can deduce that x∈E2).The rest of the proof of(4.23)goes smoothly.In Lemma4.7,a20=24can be replaced with2|z−e|≤εr.Obviously,e∈B(x,r),so we canfind p∈P0such that|p−e|≤10−3r;then |p−z|≤εr+10−3r<ρ/3.Similarly,if p∈P0∩B(y,ρ)we canfind e∈E such that |p−e|≤10−3r.Then e∈B(x,r),so we canfind z∈Z such that|z−e|≤εr;altogether |p−z|≤εr+10−3r<ρ/3,and D y,ρ(Z,P0)<1/3.This is impossible,by Lemma3.1.Next suppose that Z is a set of type3,whose center z∈B(x,99r/100),but whose spine meets B(x,98r/100)at some point y.As before,D y,ρ(Z,P0)<1/3forρ=r/200.Since |z−y|≥r/100,Lemma3.2says that Z coincides with a set Y of type2in B(y,4r/500)= B(y,8ρ/5).Then D y,ρ(Y,P0)<1/3too.But the spine of Y goes through y,so Lemma3.1 says that this is impossible.The same argument excludes the case when Z is a set of type 2whose spine meets B(x,98r/100).We are left with the case when Z is of type1,or else its spine does not meet B(x,98r/100). Let F denote the face of Z that contains x,and P the plane that contains F.The boundary of F is contained in the spine of Z,so it does not meet B(x,98r/100);hence(4.6)F∩B(x,98r/100)=P∩B(x,98r/100).Every point of P∩B(x,98r/100)lies in Z by(4.6),so it isεr-close to E,and then(ε+10−3)r-close to P0.This forces every point of P0∩B(x,r)to be2·10−3r-close to P.This stays true (with a constant larger than2)when we deal with sets of type Gi and approximations with d-planes in R n.If(4.5)fails,(4.6)says that there is another face F1of Z that meets B(x,97r/100)at some point y.We know that y isεr-close to E,hence(ε+10−3)r-close to P0.Hence, dist(y,P)≤(ε+3·10−3)r.[In all these estimates,we use the fact that y∈B(x,99r/100), so the successive points that we implicitly use never lie out of B(x,r).]On the other hand,y lies in some other face of Z,and the angles between faces of Z are not too small,so the distance from y to the spine of Z is less than10−2r.For sets of type Gi,we deduce this from(2.8).This is impossible,because the spine of Z does not meet B(x,98r/100).So(4.5)holds.We now return to the lemma,and let y∈B(x,2r/3)be as in the statement.Let us first estimate a(y,t)for t∈(r/10,4r/10).First observe that B(y,t)⊂B(x,967r/1000). By(1.1)and(4.5),we canfind q y∈P such that|y−q y|≤εr.Set P′=P+(y−q y). We can use P′to compute a(y,t),because it goes through y,so a(y,t)≤D y,t(E,P′).If e∈E∩B(y,t),dist(e,P′)≤dist(e,P)+|y−q y|≤dist(e,P)+εr≤2εr,by(1.1) and(4.5).If p′∈P′∩B(y,t),p=p′−(y−q y)lies in Z∩B(x,97r/100)by(4.5),and dist(p′,E)≤dist(p,E)+εr≤2εr by(1.1).So a(y,t)≤D y,t(E,P′)≤2εr/t≤20ε.The pair(y,t)satisfies the hypothesis of the lemma,namely,a(y,t)≤10−3,so we can iterate the previous argument(this time,keeping y at the center).This yields that a(y,s)≤20εfor r/100≤s≤4r/10,and(after many iterations of the argument)for every s<4r/10.Finally,for each s<4r/10there is a set Z(y,s)as in(1.1),and since a(y,s)≤20εthe proof of(4.5)shows that Z(y,s)coincides with a plane P on B(y,97s/100).We can use P in the definition of a(y,96s/100),and we get that a(y,96s/100)≤100ε/96≤2ε.Since this holds for s<4r/10,Lemma4.1follows.。

Judgment and Decision Making Extrapolations and Applications

Judgment and Decision Making Extrapolations and Applications

Judgment and Decision Making: Extrapolations and ApplicationsForthcoming, Judgments, Decisions, and Public Policy, Cambridge University Press. Chris Swoyer, University of OklahomaPeople who make or implement public policy must often estimate probabilities, predict outcomes, and make decisions that affect the welfare, values, and lives of many others. Until recently many of the disciplines that study policy employed a model of individuals and organizations as rational agents whose predictions conform to the prescriptions of probability theory and whose actions maximize their expected gains in conformity with classical decision theory.Such theories lead a double life. They are sometimes viewed as normative models that tell us what we should do in order to be rational (even if we rarely manage to pull it off). Construed this way, they offer advice: we should have logically consistent beliefs, coherent probability assignments, consistent preferences, and maximize expected utilities. But these same theories have also been viewed as descriptive models; construed this way, they are meant to provide an approximate characterization of the behavior of real people. It is this interpretation that has played a central role in economics, management science, and parts of political science, sociology, and the law.Since the early 1970s this descriptive picture of judgment and decision making has come under increasing attack from scientists working in behavioral decision theory, the field concerned with the ways in which people actually judge, predict, and decide. Much of the criticism derives from the work of Tversky, Kahneman, and others working in the heuristics and biases tradition. Scientists in this tradition argue that people oftenfail, sometimes quite dramatically, to conform to the strictures of the relevant normative models. Instead, they argue, people frequently employ judgmental heuristics, quick and relatively effortless reasoning strategies that produce accurate results in many circumstances but that are biased in ways that lead to systematic errors under inauspicious conditions.The heuristics and biases tradition is now just one current in the large stream of behavioral decision theory, and many scientists in the field reject various aspects of this approach. Most agree, however, that peoples' judgments and decisions often don't fit the guidelines of classical normative models, and there is now no going back to the view that such models are descriptively accurate.In hindsight, it is difficult to see why our failures to conform to normative models should have seemed a surprise. After all, precise versions of normative theories were only formulated with great effort rather late in human history. Despite millennia of gambling, the basics of probability theory were not hammered out until the middle of the seventeenth century, three more centuries passed before decision theory was formalized, and even today many students find parts of these theories difficult and counterintuitive. Furthermore, there has never been any solid body of evidence showing that we live up to such normative standards, nor does any theory with serious empirical support entail that we do. Indeed, there is much reason to think that we couldn't.As Herbert Simon (1956) has stressed since the mid fifties, human rationality is bounded. We have very limited attention, working memory and computational capacities, and these limitations alone would make it impossible for us to perform the calculations normative theories often require. Moreover, while evolution doubtless equipped us withcognitive mechanisms that were reasonably accurate in the hunter-gather environment in which our species evolved, there is no reason to think that it could, much less did, attune us to the subtleties of Bayesian updating or the intricacies of expected utilities. Finally, almost any newscast or history book chronicles miscalculations and follies that are utterly self-defeating, even by the agents' own lights. But although it shouldn't come as news that people's inferences and decisions are sometimes suboptimal, what is surprising is that many of our cognitive and volitional lapses are quite systematic (or biased), and systematic in ways that would have been difficult to predict.This isn't to say that our judgments and decisions are hopelessly flawed. Indeed, the spotty picture emerging from several decades of research suggests that people have the ability to reason well under some conditions. This ability is fragile and unstable, however, and it can be affected, diverted, and even subverted by a variety of influences. In particular, many subtle features of the contexts in which people judge and decide influence how they judge and decide. In fact, one of the most pressing questions in the field, particularly when we are considering applications to politics or policy, is whether reasonably robust generalizations about human judgment and decision making can be found amidst all the contextual variability.My goal here is to sort out some of the issues involved in interpreting, evaluating, and applying work in behavioral decision theory to real-life situations involving policy, politics and related matters. I will discuss the sorts of considerations that are relevant to settling various disputes about such work and its applications and note several obstacles to applying it to problems in the real world. There is an enormous variability in the ways that policies are made and implemented, and it is unlikely that any simple morals willapply to all of them, but the general tenor of the discussion here is cautionary. Behavioral decision theory has produced many important empirical findings and promising models, but at this sage of the game it is difficult to apply many (though not all) of its findings to areas of policy with great confidence. I will end with a brief consideration of the status of normative models and their potential for improving policy making and implementation.<A> The Checklist: What? Where? When? Who? Why?The checklist for the behavioral decision theorist is much like that for the reporter (though the order is a bit different). The first step is to discover phenomena or effects (like insensitivity to sample size or preference reversals). These rough regularities in human behavior tell us what people tend to do. Once a phenomenon has been discovered, questions arise about its boundary conditions: where and when does it occur; which conditions produce, accentuate, attenuate, or eliminate it? Although little work has been done on individual differences in judgment and choice, these are often substantial, and researchers are beginning to ask: who reasons in which ways? Finally, a basic goal of most science is to explain why the phenomena in its domain obtain; what causal processes or mechanisms mediate a given effect? I will discuss each topic in turn, with an eye to separating issues that are sometimes conflated and to showing how considerations involving each issue affect applications in the world outside the lab.<A> What? Target PhenomenaThree decades of research in behavioral decision theory have produced a long list of putative phenomena or effects, rough regularities that hold "for the most part." Any exact count of effects would be somewhat arbitrary, but it is now upwards of fifty. In some cases there is disagreement as to whether an alleged phenomenon really obtains, butfor the moment I will treat the phenomena as genuine and I won't worry about qualifications or boundary conditions until the next section.Table 1. lists a dozen and one phenomena or effects, including several classical examples, a few newer ones, and one from the nearby field of social cognition (the fundamental attribution error). The table merely provides a sampling to indicate the range of phenomena that are likely to be relevant to policy studies, and many additions would be possible. In the remainder of this section I will describe a few of these phenomena in more detail, point out potential applications to policy, but also note impediments to such applications.[ Insert Table 1 about here ]<B> Hindsight BiasPeople who know how something (like the implementation of a new program to reduce violent crime) turned out have a tendency to think that they could have predicted the outcome in advance (Fischhoff, 1975). Their confidence is often misplaced, however, because unforeseen and unintended consequences are common in the real world, and it is often very difficult to be very sure about the results of new policies and initiatives. How much global warming is occurring and what can we do to reverse it? Even the best analysts will be wrong about such things some of the time. But after the fact it is easy to think that they should have been able to predict the things that actually happened. This means that people who get things right may get too much credit (and so be relied on too much in the future) and those who get things wrong may get too much blame (and so be ignored when they shouldn't be).<B> Insufficient Attention to Base RatesProblem solving and policy implementation often require classification, diagnosis, and prediction. Is Jones likely to violate parole or to jump bail? How likely is Smith to be infected by the HIV virus given his positive test result? In such cases we need to integrate information about the specific case (e.g., that Smith tested positive) with information about base rates in a relevant reference class; among people like Smith (the reference class), what percentage are infected by the virus? There are difficult problems about selecting an appropriate reference class, but I will set these aside until §7.The importance of base rates is vividly illustrated by examples like the following. Suppose that we have a test for the HIV virus; the probability that a person who really has the virus will test positive is .90 while the probability that a person who does not have it will test positive is .20. Finally, suppose that the probability that a person in the general population has the virus (the base rate of the virus) is .01. How likely is Smith, whose test came back positive, to be infected? Because the test is fairly accurate, many people suppose that the chances are quite high, maybe even 90%. But when we plug the numbers into Bayes' theorem, we find that the probability of someone in this situation being infected is 1 chance in 23. It is not difficult to see how policy makers, or the public to which they respond, can make very inaccurate assessments of probabilities, and hence<B> Insufficient Attention to Regression EffectsExtreme performances and outcomes tend to be followed by ones that are more average (that "regress" to the mean). In the first game you see Ann play she hits 80% of her three-point shots. It is natural to predict that she will hit about the same percentage next timearound. But in fact, if her average shooting percentage is lower, she is likely to do worse. Her performance is likely to regress toward the mean.People do not have a good intuitive understanding of this basic statisticaltempting to attribute it to her lack of focus or to a better opposing defense, but in fact it may simply result from regression to the mean. Similarly, when the implementation of a new policy (e.g., tougher sentencing laws) is followed by an increase in something desirable (safer streets) or a decrease in something undesirable (a drop in violent crime), it is tempting to conclude that the measure is responsible for the change. But it might well have occurred without the measure, simply as a consequence of regression to the mean. In such cases, the policy will be given credit it doesn't deserve; more money is likely to be channeled to it, and away from alternatives that might be more effective.<B> Conjunction FallacyA person commits the conjunction fallacy if he judges that a conjunction is more probable than one of its conjuncts (probability version) or that the frequency of a conjunctive attribute (e.g., being a feminist and a bank teller) in a population is greater than the frequency of one of the attributes taken alone (e.g., being a bank teller).When people are told that Linda majored in philosophy, has been deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and participated in antinuclear demonstrations, many of them conclude that the conjunction (Linda is a feminist and a bank teller) is more probable than the second conjunct (Linda is a bank teller). If we take this result at face value, it is a clear violation of the very basic principle that a conjunction can never be more probable than either of its conjuncts. It is unlikely that much policyturns on blatant commissions of this fallacy, but it is noteworthy because it suggests a flaw in our probabilistic reasoning that may result from mechanisms that bias probabilistic judgments in other, more common, cases.<B> Risk Aversion and Risk Seeking: The Four-fold PatternNumerous studies show that people evaluate prospects or outcomes differently depending on whether they see them as gains or as losses. We often construe things as gains or losses relative to the status quo, but sometimes we do so relative to an opportunity we let slip by (if I had just invested in Intel, ...) or to a level of aspiration (compared to the raise I deserved, ...). There is a good deal of evidence that we tend to be risk averse with respect to gains and risk seeking with respect to losses when the probabilities of relevant outcomes are judged to be moderate to high, but that pattern is reversed when the probabilities are judged to be low (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992).Most people, for example, prefer a sure gain of $500 to a 50% chance of winning $1000, despite the fact that the two options have the same expected value; here in the domain of gains (with moderately high probabilities) people avoid the risky choice. But most people prefer a 50% chance of losing $1000 to a sure loss of $500; here in the domain of losses (again with moderately high probabilities), people prefer the risk to a certain loss. These findings take on added interest because the way that alternatives are presented or framed seems to affect what people see as the reference point. This determines whether they see something as a gain or as a loss, which in turn affects whether their choices will exhibit risk aversion or risk seeking.For example, Tversky and Kahneman (1986) asked people to imagine that we were preparing for the outbreak of a virulent Asian disease that would kill 600 people ifno countermeasures were taken. They were asked to choose between two alternatives, one of which would save 200 lives and the other of which had a 1/3 probability of saving everyone and 2/3 probability of saving no one. Here the outcomes are stated in positive terms (lives saved), and most people preferred the first option (thus showing risk aversion). But when exactly the same options were presented in negative terms (deaths), as either 400 people dying or a 1/3 probability that no one would die and a 2/3 probability that 600 would die, most people chose the second, riskier, option.<B> Preference ReversalsThis study provides an example of a preference reversal. It was theorized that it occurred because the first description of the two options presents or frames things in terms of a gain (saving lives) in relationship to the reference point (600 are expected to die), so that people are risk averse. But the second pair of descriptions frames the same options in a way that places the reference point at the status quo; here the options involve a loss (people dying), and so respondents are now willing to select the more risky alternative.Different ways or framing the same options often influence peoples' preferences. It makes a difference whether alternatives are framed in terms of employment or unemployment; again, peoples' preferences are affected by whether options are framed in terms of crime rates or law-obedience rates (Quattrone & Tversky, 1988). Framing effects surely play a large role in politics and policy, where choices between uncertain options are ubiquitous and people with competing interests will represent them in quite disparate ways.<A> Where and When? Boundary ConditionMost phenomena in psychology (and in many other sciences) only obtain within a certain range of circumstances, within boundary conditions, and research is often aimed at delineating the range of circumstances in which an effect holds. We can ask about the extent to which a phenomenon holds across cultures or age groups (as in Park, Nisbett, & Hedden, 1999). But it turns out that very small differences in circumstances can lead to very large differences in judgments and preferences, and I will focus on these.<B> Hindsight BiasThis phenomenon is reasonably robust in the range of contexts in which it has been studied, but some boundary conditions are known. For example, when people are asked to explain how possible outcomes that did not come to pass (e.g., George Bush's being reelected President) could have, the bias is reduced. It is further reduced if people are asked to explain how each of two incompatible outcomes could have happened before they learn which of the two actually occurred. And the phenomenon is small or even reversed in the case of outcomes that would have been very difficult to predict, (here "I knew it all along" gives way to "I would never have guessed that"; see Hawkins & Hastie (1990) for a general review).<B> Conjunction FallacyThe conjunction fallacy is quite robust when it involves vignettes stated in terms of probabilities. When subjects are asked whether it is more probable that Linda is (1) a bank teller or (2) a bank teller and active in the feminist movement, well over half of the respondents often pick the conjunction (option 2). Fewer people commit the fallacy when it is stated in terms of frequencies (out of 100 people who fit Linda's profile (1') how many are bank tellers and (2') how many are bank tellers and active feminists?), althoughthe effect doesn't disappear. The fallacy persists when pains are taken to make the nature of the task clear and even in gambling situations where subjects stand to win nontrivial amounts of money (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983).The effect is particularly strong when a sentence that initially seems unlikely ("there will soon be a war with Russia") is conjoined with another sentence that gives a plausible causal story about how the first sentence could be true ("the war results from a flareup in the middle east and spirals out of control due to a series of misunderstandings"). And it diminished or disappears when the two conjuncts are seen as incompatible ("Sam is lazy and he works sixty hours a week").<B> Base RatesThere have been a great many studies of peoples' use of base rate information. Although not all of the findings are consistent, the overall pattern suggests that people typically make some use of base rate information (especially when no other information is available), but that they do not give it as much weight as Bayes' theorem would require. Furthermore, a good deal is now known about the boundary conditions that affect peoples' use of base rates.People are more likely to use base rate information when it is causal than when it is merely statistical. In a typical vignette subjects are told that 85% of the cabs in town are green and 15% are blue (statistical base rates). An eyewitness (with, say, the same sensitivity and false alarm rates as the HIV test imagined above) thinks that the cab he saw in a late-night hit-and-run accident was blue. When subjects are asked the probability that the witness is right, they tend to neglect the low base rate of blue cabs and give a higher estimate than Bayes' theorem would prescribe. But if we tell them that the greencabs belong to a cut-rate company with reckless drivers and that 85% of the accidents involving cabs are caused by their cabs, people do take this base rate information into account (cf. Tversky & Kahneman, 1982; Kahneman and Tversky, 1996).People are also more likely to use base rate information that they find relevant to the problem at hand (Bar-Hillel, 1990), and they do a better job using base rates when the subject matter is familiar (Gigerenzer, Hell, & Blank, 1988). Various studies also suggest that people make greater use of base rate information when the base rates are presented after the specific case information (e.g., a personality description), when base rates are varied across trials, and when people are encouraged to "think as statisticians" (see Kahneman & Tversky, 1996, p. 584 for references). People do take base rate information more fully into account when they are asked to make aggregate, frequency judgments than when they are asked to make probability judgments (Gigerenzer, et al., 1988), although their judgments still do not coincide with the prescriptions of the Bayesian model (Griffin & Buehler, 1999).Some of the conclusions drawn from these studies may turn out to be wrong. But the important point here is that this research clearly illustrates the ways in which a phenomenon can be affected by contextual features. It also shows how successive studies can sharpen our understanding of the conditions under which a phenomena will be strong, weak, or even non-existent. And it emphasizes the point that when we apply work from behavioral decision theory to predict or explain complex things like politics or policy, we must be very sensitive to context.<B> Effect Size: Is It Big Enough to Matter?The difficulties that contextual variation pose for applications are exacerbated by the fact that although many of the effects found in the lab are dramatic, others are relatively small. Small effects can be of theoretical interest, and in some cases they are also of practical importance; a treatment that improves the chances of surviving a dangerous surgical procedure by a few percentage points can save many lives over the long haul. But small effects cannot be used with much confidence to underwrite predictions or explanations about what will happen in complex situations outside the lab.<B> Death by a Thousand Qualifications?Perhaps the most important question about the boundary conditions of each phenomenon is whether it now seems robust simply because researchers have yet to examine most of the conditions under which it would fail. Will there turn out to be a reasonably short list of conditions that promote or impede a given effect (e.g., the use of base rates). Or when experimenters investigate a wider range of tasks, types of information, formats for judgments and the like, will the effect dissolve into a fog of ever higher-order interactions (specific information increases sensitivity to base rates, unless it is difficult to weave it into a causal scenario around it, but even then it increases sensitivity if it is also the case that ..., unless ...)?Some generalizations may end up being relatively unqualified. But it is also possible that further investigation will show that some phenomena must be hedged with so many qualifications that it will be almost impossible to predict with any confidence when they would occur outside the lab or, in the worst case, to determine in retrospect that they had occurred.The fact that equivalent representations and small differences in methods of elicitation can lead to markedly different responses suggests that many of our preferences and beliefs are not fixed, inert, preexisting things. Instead, they are to some degree constructed on the spot, and the output of the construction process can be influenced by the context. So the issues noted in the previous paragraph might be better posed by asking: how do various contextual features influence this construction and do they affect it in ways that can be explained without countless qualifications? And the answer is that in many cases we simply do not know. But we do know enough about the importance of context to realize that we must take it into account when applying results or theories from behavioral decision making to complex human affairs.<A> Who? Individual DifferencesMany experimenters have noted that there are substantial individual differences in people's reasoning. For example, people with training in probability and statistics are less prone to certain kinds of errors (Nisbett, 1993; cf. Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). In most empirical work individual differences are treated as error variance, but researchers are beginning to investigate individual differences (e.g., Stanovich & West, 1999). This is important, because it is difficult to form a clear picture about individual reasoning from group data; indeed, in some cases individual patterns may be in conformity with a norm even when group averages are not. The importance of individual differences sounds yet another cautionary note: people who make or implement policy are very likely to differ substantially in their proclivities to error. Hence, bald generalizations that average out differences can easily ignore factors that matter.<A> Why? Causal MechanismsOnce a phenomenon or regularity is discovered (and its boundaries perhaps charted a bit), the next step is to explain it. Why does it occur; what causal mechanisms or processes produce it? As in many other areas of science the goal is explanatory unification, to explain as many phenomena as possible with the fewest mechanisms. Once a mechanism is discovered, it is possible to ask for a deeper explanation of it, and in fact the line between phenomena and underlying explanations is not always sharp. But at the current stage of research, most of the mechanisms that have been proposed are not very far below the surface phenomena.The search for underlying mechanisms that causally mediate effects is important for several reasons. First, we want to know why we reason and choose in the ways that we do. Second, a knowledge of mechanisms often allows us to make more robust predictions than we could from knowledge of a regularity alone; the regularity will only hold in those cases where the causal mechanisms that generate it do, and so it may well fail in novel circumstances in ways that can only be foreseen if we know what causes it.Third, knowledge of mechanisms often allows us to predict new phenomena whose existence could not simply be extrapolated from known phenomena. Fourth, it is often most effective to treat symptoms by intervening with the underlying mechanisms that produce them (e.g., killing microrganisms that cause a disease). Similarly, it may often be easier to improve reasoning by designing interventions that work on the mechanisms that produce suboptimal results, rather than by trying to work on the symptoms directly (e.g., by exhorting people to use base rates). Knowing about the mediating processing does not in itself tell us how to intervene, but it suggests a place to begin.<A> Debunking Explanations: Explaining Results AwayBefore turning to substantive explanations we should note a genre of explanations that attribute various phenomena to errors or oversights on the part of the researcher. For example, Gigerenzer, Hoffrage, & Kleinbolting (1991) argue that the overconfidence effect is largely an artifact stemming from a biased set of test questions (see Brenner, Koehler, Liberman & Tversky, 1996 for a reply). But the most common debunking accounts are variations on the theme that an apparent phenomenon results from misleading instructions or stimuli that subjects interpret in ways the experimenter didn't foresee. Such criticisms have become a cottage industry in the case of the conjunction fallacy, where it has been argued that subjects interpret words like `and' or `probability' in a way the experimenter didn't intend. Hence, it is urged, subjects' responses stem from their construal of the situation, rather than from defective reasoning.It is surely true that many experiments contain such flaws, but it isn't plausible to think that all of the many hundreds of studies in behavioral decision theory are defective in these ways. Still, it always bears repeating that a single study can't show very much and that we need careful manipulation checks, process tracing (where feasible), detailed post-experimental interviews, conceptual replications, and follow-up studies to see whether an apparent effect is really genuine. Tversky and Kahneman's (1983) follow-up work on the conjunction fallacy illustrates some of these strategies. So do several recent studies on the use of base rates. In many early studies base rates were rather artificially defined by the experimenter, but in two recent studies they are actually reported by subjects before they make a probability judgment (Griffin & Buehler, 1999) or the base。

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a rX iv:mat h /44226v1[mat h.GT]12A pr24GENERALIZATIONS OF MCSHANE’S IDENTITY TO HYPERBOLIC CONE-SURF ACES SER PEOW TAN,YAN LOI WONG,AND YING ZHANG Abstract.We generalize McShane’s identity for the length series of simple closed geodesics on a cusped hyperbolic surface [17]to hyperbolic cone-surfaces (with all cone angles ≤π),possibly with cusps and/or geodesic boundary.In particular,by applying the generalized identity to the orbifolds obtained from taking the quotient of the one-holed torus by its elliptic involution,and the closed genus two surface by its hyper-elliptic involution,we obtain generaliza-tions of the Weierstrass identities for the one-holed torus,and identities for the genus two surface,also obtained by McShane using different methods in [18],[20]and [19].We also give an interpretation of the identity in terms of complex lengths,gaps,and the direct visual measure of the boundary.1.Introduction Greg McShane discovered the following striking identity in his Ph.D.thesis:Theorem 1.1.(McShane [16])In a once punctured hyperbolic torus T , γ12,(1)where the sum extends over all simple closed geodesics on T and where |γ|denotes the length of γin the given hyperbolic structure.Throughout this paper we shall always use |γ|to denote the hyperbolic length of γif γis a (generalized)simple closed geodesic or a simple geodesic arc on a hyperbolic (cone-)surface.All surfaces considered in this paper are assumed to be connected and ter McShane extended his identity to more general surfaces:Theorem 1.2.(McShane [17])In a finite area hyperbolic surface M with cusps and without boundary,12(|α|+|β|)=12SER PEOW TAN,YAN LOI WONG,AND YING ZHANG In[18]McShane demonstrated three other closely related identities for the lengths of simple closed geodesics in each of the three Weierstrass classes on a hyperbolic torus.Recall that a hyperbolic torus T has three Weierstrass points which are the fixed points of the unique elliptic involution which maps each simple closed geodesic on T onto itself with orientation reversed,and for a Weierstrass point x on T the simple closed geodesics in the Weierstrass class which is dual to x are precisely all the simple closed geodesics on T which do not pass through x.Theorem1.3.(McShane[18])In a once punctured hyperbolic torus,γ∈A sin−1 12|γ| =πGENERALIZATIONS OF MCSHANE’S IDENTITY TO HYPERBOLIC CONE-SURFACES3 Theorem1.4.Let T be either a hyperbolic one-cone torus where the single cone point has cone angleθ∈(0,2π)or a hyperbolic one-hole torus where the single boundary geodesic has length l>0.Then we have respectivelyγ2tan−1 sinθcosθ2,(4)γ2tanh−1 sinh lcosh l2,(5)where the sum in either case extends over all simple closed geodesics on T. Theorem 1.5.Let M be a compact hyperbolic cone-surface with a single cone point of cone angleθ∈(0,π]and without boundary or let M be a compact hyper-bolic surface with a single boundary geodesic having length l>0.Then we have respectively2tan−1 sinθcosθ2=θ22+exp|α|+|β|2,(7)where the sum in either case extends over all unordered pairs of simple closed geodesics on M which bound with the cone point(respectively,the boundary ge-odesic)an embedded pair of pants.For the purposes of this paper we make the following definition.Definition1.6.A compact hyperbolic cone-surface M is a compact(topo-logical)surface M with hyperbolic cone structure where each boundary component is a smooth simple closed geodesic and where there are afinite number of inte-rior points which form all the cone points and cusps.Its geometric boundary, denoted∆M,is the union of all cusps,cone points and geodesic boundary compo-nents.(Note that∆M is different from the usual topological boundary∂M when there are cusps or cone points.)Thus a geometric boundary component is either a cusp,a cone point,or a boundary geodesic.The geometric interior of M is M−∆M.In this paper we consider a compact hyperbolic cone-surface M=M(∆0;k,Θ,L) with k cusps C1,C2,···,C k,with m cone points P1,P2,···,P m,where the cone angle of P i isθi∈(0,π],i=1,2,···,m,and with n geodesic boundary components B1,B2,···,B n,where the length of B i is l i>0,i=1,2,···,n,together with an extra distinguished geometric boundary component∆0.Thus∆0is either a cusp C0or a cone point P0of cone angleθ0∈(0,π]or a geodesic boundary component B0of length l0>0.Note that in the above notationΘ=(θ1,θ2,···,θm)and L=(l1,l2,···,l n).We exclude the case where M is a geometric pair of pants for we have only trivial identities in that case.4SER PEOW TAN,YAN LOI WONG,AND YING ZHANG We allow that some(even all)of the cone anglesθi are equal toπ,i=0,1,···,m; these are often cases of particular interest.However,for clarity of exposition,quite often in proofs/statements of lemmas/theorems we shallfirst consider the case where all the cone angles are less thanπand then point out the addenda that should be made when there are angleπcone points.The advantage of this assumption of strict inequality is that every non-trivial,non-peripheral simple closed curve on such M can be realized as a(smooth)simple closed geodesic in its free homotopy class in the geometric interior of M under the given hyperbolic cone-structure(see §4for the proof of this statement).We call a simple closed curve on M peripheral if it is freely homotopic on M to a geometric boundary component of M.Definition1.7.By a generalized simple closed geodesic on M we mean either(i)a simple closed geodesic in the geometric interior of M;or(ii)a degenerate simple closed geodesic which is the double of a simple geodesic arc in the geometric interior of M connecting two angleπcone points;or (iii)a geometric boundary component,that is,a cusp or a cone point or a boundary geodesic.In particular,generalized simple closed geodesics of thefirst two kinds are called interior generalized simple closed geodesics.For each pair of generalized simple closed geodesicsα,βwhich bound with ∆0an embedded geometric pair of pants we shall define in§3a gap function Gap(∆0;α,β)when∆0is a cone point or a boundary geodesic as well as a nor-malized gap function Gap′(∆0;α,β)when∆0is a cusp.Now we are in a position to state the most general(real)form of our generaliza-tion of McShane’s identity.Theorem1.8.Let M be a compact hyperbolic cone-surface with all cone angles in (0,π].Then one has eitherGap(∆0;α,β)=θ02,(9)when∆0is a boundary geodesic of length l0;orGap′(∆0;α,β)=1GENERALIZATIONS OF MCSHANE’S IDENTITY TO HYPERBOLIC CONE-SURFACES5 (ii)In the special cases where the geometric boundary∆M is a single cone point or a single boundary geodesic Theorem1.8gives all the previously stated generalized identities in Theorems1.4and1.5.(iii)The cusp case(that is,∆0is a cusp)is the limit case of the other cases as the cone angleθ0or the boundary geodesic length l0approaches0,and the identity in the cusp case can indeed be derived from thefirst order infinitesimal of the identities of the other cases.It is also interesting to note that McShane’s Weierstrass identities can be deduced as special cases of our general Theorem1.8by applying the theorem to the quotient of the once punctured torus by its elliptic involution and then lifting back to the torus.Thus we have the following generalized Weierstrass identities:Corollary1.10.Let T be either a hyperbolic one-cone torus where the single cone point has cone angleθ∈(0,2π)or a hyperbolic one-hole torus where the single boundary geodesic has length l>0.Then we have respectivelyγ∈A tan−1 cosθsinh|γ|2,(11)γ∈A tan−1 cosh l sinh|γ|2,(12)where the sum in either case is over all the simple closed geodesicsγin a Weierstrass class A.McShane’s original Weierstrass identity(3)then corresponds to the caseθ=0or l=0in the above two identities,noticing thattan−1 12 =sin−1 12 .As further corollaries,there are the following weaker but neater identities,each of which is obtained by summing the three McShane’s Weierstrass identities in the corresponding case.Corollary1.11.Let T be a hyperbolic torus whose geometric boundary is either a single cusp,a single cone point of cone angleθ∈(0,2π),or a single boundary geodesic of length l>0.Then we have respectivelyγtan−1 12 =3π=3π42=3π426SER PEOW TAN,YAN LOI WONG,AND YING ZHANGwhere the sum in each case is over all the simple closed geodesics γon T .Remark 1.12.The identity (15)wasalso obtained by McShane [19]using Wolpert’s variation of length method.It seems likely his method can be extended to prove some of the other identities as well.Similarly,for a genus two closed hyperbolic surface M ,one can consider the (six)identities on the quotient surface M/ηwhere ηis the unique hyper-elliptic involution on M (note that M/ηis a closed hyperbolic orbifold of genus 0with six cone angle πpoints,and we may choose any one of these cone points to be the distinguished geometric boundary component)and re-interpret them as Weierstrass identities on the original surface M (see also McShane [20]where the Weierstrass identities were obtained directly).Combining all the six Weierstrass identities for M ,we then have the following very neat identity.Theorem 1.13.Let M be a genus two closed hyperbolic surface.Then tan −1exp −|α|2=3π4−l ρ(β)2,(17)where the sum is over all the ordered pairs [α],[β]of homotopy classes of disjoint unoriented essential simple closed curves α,βon M such that αis non-separating and βis separating.In the statement of Theorem 1.8we did not write down the explicit expression for the gap functions due to their “case by case”nature as can be seen in §3.The cone points and boundary geodesics as geometric boundary components seem to have different roles in the series in the generalized identities,hence makingGENERALIZATIONS OF MCSHANE’S IDENTITY TO HYPERBOLIC CONE-SURFACES 7the identities not in a unified form.This difference can,however,be removed by assigning purely imaginary length to a cone point as a geometric boundary component.More precisely,for each generalized simple closed geodesic δ,we define its complex length |δ|as:|δ|=0if δis a cusp;|δ|=θi if δis a cone point of angle θ∈(0,π];and |δ|=l if δis a boundary geodesic or an interior generalized simple closed geodesic of length l >0.Then we can reformulate the generalized McShane’s identities in Theorem 1.8as follows.Theorem 1.16.Let M be a compact hyperbolic cone-surface with all cone angles in (0,π],and let all its geometric boundary components be ∆0,∆1,···,∆N with complex lengths L 0,L 1,···,L N respectively.Then α,β2tanh −1 sinhL 0cosh L 02(18)+Nj =1 βtanh −1 sinh L 022+cosh L 02 =L 01+exp |α|+|β|2sinh L jcosh |β|2=18SER PEOW TAN,YAN LOI WONG,AND YING ZHANGworks of McShane[19]and Mirzakhani[21];and Greg McShane for helpful e-mail correspondence and also for bringing our attention to[20].2.The organization of the rest of this paperThe rest of this paper is organized as follows.In§3we define the gap functions used in Theorem1.8for the various cases.In§4we deal with the problem of realization of simple closed curves by geodesics,and show that the assumption that all cone angles are less than or equal toπis essential.In§5we analyze the so-called∆0-geodesics,that is,the geodesics starting/emanating orthogonally from ∆0,and determine all the gaps between all simple-normal∆0-geodesics.In§6we calculate the gap function which is the width of a combined gap measured suitably. In§7we generalize the Birman-Series theorem(which states that the point set of all complete geodesics with bounded self intersection numbers on a compact hyperbolic surface has Hausdorffdimension1)to the case of compact hyperbolic cone-surfaces with all cone angles less than or equal toπ.We prove the theorems in this paper in§8,except for Theorem1.16,which is deferred to the last section.Finally in §9we restate the complexified generalized McShane’s identity(18)(Theorem1.16) using two functions of complex variables and hence unify the somewhat unattractive “case-by-case”definition of the gap functions.We interpret the geometric meanings of the complexified summands in the complexified generalized McShane’s identity and prove the absolute convergence of the complexified series in it by a simple use of the Birman–Series arguments in[5].3.Defining the Gap functionsIn this section,for a compact hyperbolic cone-surface M=M(∆0;k,Θ,L)with all cone angles≤πwe define the gap function Gap(∆0;α,β)(when∆0is a cone point or a boundary geodesic)and the normalized gap function Gap′(∆0;α,β) (when∆0is a cusp)whereα,βare generalized simple closed geodesics on M which bound with∆0a geometric pair of pants.Throughout this paper we use|α|to denote the length ofαwhenαis an interior generalized simple closed geodesic or a boundary geodesic.In particular,whenαis a degenerate simple closed geodesic(that is,the double cover of a simple geodesic arc which connects two angleπcone points),its length|α|is defined as twice the length of the simple geodesic that it covers.Recall that an interior generalized simple closed geodesic is either a simple closed geodesic in the geometric interior of M or a degenerate simple closed geodesic onGENERALIZATIONS OF MCSHANE’S IDENTITY TO HYPERBOLIC CONE-SURFACES 9M which is the double cover of a simple geodesic arc which connects two angle πcone points.Case 0.∆0is a cusp.Subcase 0.1.Both αand βare interior generalized simple closed geodesics.In this caseGap ′(∆0;α,β)=12(|α|+|β|).(20)Subcase 0.2.One of α,β,say α,is a boundary geodesic and the other,β,is an interior generalized simple closed geodesic.In this caseGap ′(∆0;α,β)=12sinh |β|cosh |α|2.(21)Subcase 0.3.One of α,β,say α,is a cone point of cone angle ϕ∈(0,π]and the other,β,is an interior generalized simple closed geodesic.In this caseGap ′(∆0;α,β)=12sinh |β|cos ϕ2.(22)Subcase 0.4.One of α,β,say α,is also a cusp and the other,β,is an interior generalized simple closed geodesic.In this caseGap ′(∆0;α,β)=12sinh |β|1+cosh |β|1+exp 122+exp |α|+|β|10SER PEOW TAN,YAN LOI WONG,AND YING ZHANG In this caseGap(∆0;α,β)=θ2sinh|β|cosh|α|2cosh|β| 2−tan−1 sinθ22+cosθ2.(26)Note that there is no gap whenθ=ϕ=π.Subcase1.4.One ofα,β,sayα,is a cusp and the other,β,is an interior generalized simple closed geodesic.In this caseGap(∆0;α,β)=2tan−1 sinθcosθ2(27)=θ2sinh|β|1+cosθ2,(28)which is the common value of Gap(∆0;α,β)in Subcases1.1through1.3when |α|=0.Case2.∆0is a boundary geodesic of length l>0.Subcase2.1.Bothαandβare interior generalized simple closed geodesics.In this caseGap(∆0;α,β)=2tanh−1 sinh lcosh l2 .(29)Subcase2.2.One ofα,β,sayα,is a boundary geodesic and the other,β,is an interior generalized simple closed geodesic.In this caseGap(∆0;α,β)=l2sinh|β|cosh|α|2cosh|β|GENERALIZATIONS OF MCSHANE’S IDENTITY TO HYPERBOLIC CONE-SURFACES11 In this caseGap(∆0;α,β)=l2sinh|β|cosϕ2cosh|β|22+exp|β|2−tanh−1 sinh l22cosh|β|12SER PEOW TAN,YAN LOI WONG,AND YING ZHANG(i)in Theorem4.1(i),if the simple closed curve c bounds with two angleπcone points an embedded pair of pants,then the geodesic realization for c is the double cover of the simple geodesic arc which connects these two angle πcone points and is homotopic(relative to boundary)to a simple arc lying wholly in the pair of pants;(ii)in Theorem4.1(ii),if the simple arc c connects a geometric boundary com-ponent∆to itself and bounds together with∆and an angleπcone point Pan embedded cylinder then the geodesic realization for c is the double cover of the normal simple geodesic arc which connects∆to P and is homotopic (relative to boundary)to a simple arc lying wholly in the cylinder.The simple geodesic in Theorem4.1and Addendum4.2is called the geodesic realization of the given simple curve in the respective homotopy class.The proof is a well-known use of the Arzela-Ascoli Theorem as used in[9]with slight modifications.Proof:(i)Suppose c is an essential non-peripheral simple closed curve in the geometric interior of M,parameterized on[0,1]with constant speed.Let the length of c be|c|>0.Then for each cusp C i,there is an embedded neighborhood N(C i) of C i on M,bounded by a horocycle,such that each non-peripheral simple closed curve c′in the geometric interior of M with length≤|c|cannot enter N(C i); for otherwise c′would be either peripheral or of infinite length.Now let M0be M with all the chosen horocycle neighborhoods N(C i)removed.Then M0is a compact metric subspace of M with the induced hyperbolic metric.Now choose a sequence of simple closed curves{c k}∞1,where each c k is parameterized on[0,1]with constant speed,in the free homotopy class of c(where the homotopy takes place in the geometric interior of M)such that their lengths≤|c|and are decreasing with limit the infimum of the lengths of the simple closed curves in the free homotopy class of c.Then by the Arzela-Ascoli Theorem(c.f.[9]Theorem A.19,page429) there is a subsequence of{c k}∞1,assumed to be{c k}∞1itself,such that it converges uniformly to a closed curveγin M0.It is clear thatγis a geodesic since it is locally minimizing.Note thatγis away from cusps by the choice of{c k}∞1.We claim thatγcannot pass through any cone point.For otherwise,supposeγpasses through a cone point P.Then for sufficiently large k,c k can be modified in the free homotopy class of c to have length smaller than|γ|(since the cone point has cone angle smaller thanπ),which is a contradiction.Thusγmust be a closed geodesic in the geometric interior of M.The uniqueness and simplicity ofγcan be proved by an easy argument since there are no bi-gons in the hyperbolic plane.(ii)For an essential simple arc c in the geometric interior of M which connects geometric boundary components,the proof of case(i)applies without modifications when none of the involved geometric boundary components is a cusp.Now suppose at least one of the involved geometric boundary components is a cusp.For defi-niteness let us assume that c connects cusps C1to C2.Remove suitable horocycle neighborhoods N(C1)and N(C2)respectively for C1and C2where the two horo-cycles are H1and H2respectively.Choose a simple arc c0in M−N(C1)∪N(C2) which goes along c and connects H1to H2.Let the length of c0be|c0|>0.Now for all other cusps C i,there is a horocycle neighborhood N(C i)of C i on M such that each non-peripheral simple closed curve c′in the geometric interior of M withGENERALIZATIONS OF MCSHANE’S IDENTITY TO HYPERBOLIC CONE-SURFACES13 length≤|c0|cannot enter N(C i).Again let M0be M with all the chosen horocycle neighborhoods N(C i)removed.By the same argument as in(i)we have a shortest simple geodesic realizationγ0in the free relative homotopy class of c0in M0and c0does not pass through any cone point.Henceγ0must be perpendicular to both H1and H2at its endpoints.Thusγ0can be extended to a geodesic arc connecting C1to C2.Again simplicity and uniqueness can be proved easily.The addendum can be verified easily since the realizations as degenerate simple geodesics in the respective cases are already known.Remark4.3.We make a remark that the following fact,whose proof is easy and hence omitted,is implicitly used through out this paper:On a hyperbolic cone-surface for each cone point P with angle less thanπthere is a cone region N(P), bounded by a suitable circle centered at P,such that if a geodesicγgoes into N(P) then eitherγwill go directly to the cone point P(hence perpendicular to all the circles centered at P)orγwill develop a self-intersection in N(P).The analogous fact for a cusp is used in[5],[13]and[17].5.Gaps between simple-normal∆0-geodesicsDefinition5.1.A∆0-geodesic on M is an oriented geodesic ray which starts from∆0(and is perpendicular to it if∆0is a boundary geodesic)and is fully developed,that is,it develops forever until it terminates at a geometric boundary component.We denote by G(∆0)(or just G)the set of∆0-geodesics.A∆0-geodesic is either non-simple or simple.It is regarded as non-simple if and only if it intersects itself transversely at an interior point(a cone point is not treated as an interior point)or at a point on a boundary geodesic.We shall see later that somewhat surprisingly,in some sense,the set of non-simple∆0-geodesics is easier to analyze than the set of simple∆0-geodesics.A simple∆0-geodesic is either normal or not-normal in the following sense:A simple∆0-geodesic is normal if when fully developed either it never intersects any boundary geodesic or it intersects(hence terminates at)a boundary geodesic perpendicularly.Note that a simple-normal∆0-geodesic may terminate at a cusp or a cone point.Thus a simple∆0-geodesic is not-normal if and only if it intersects a boundary geodesic(which might be∆0itself)obliquely.We shall analyze the structure of all non-simple and simple-not-normal∆0-geodesics and show that they form gaps between simple-normal∆0-geodesics.Fur-thermore,the naturally measured widths of the suitably combined gaps are given by the Gap functions defined before in§3.14SER PEOW TAN,YAN LOI WONG,AND YING ZHANG Note that McShane[17]analyzes directly all simple∆0-geodesics(there are no simple-not-normal∆0-geodesics in his case since there are no geodesic boundary componenets).Our analysis of the structure of∆0-geodesics is a bit different from and actually simpler than that of McShane’s.We shall analyze all non-simple and simple-not-normal∆0-geodesics and show that they arise in the nice ways we expect.First we parameterize all the∆0-geodesics and define the widths for gaps between simple-normal∆0-geodesics.If∆0is a cusp let H be a suitably chosen small horocycle as in McShane[17], see also[13].If∆0is a cone point let H be a suitably chosen small circle centered at∆0.Let H be∆0itself if∆0is a boundary geodesic.Then each∆0-geodesic has a uniquefirst intersection point with H,which is the starting point when∆0is a boundary geodesic.Note that the∆0-geodesics intersect H orthogonally at theirfirst intersection points.Thus G can be naturally identified with H,with the induced topology and measure.Let H ns,H sn,H snn be the point sets of thefirst intersections of H with respectively all non-simple,all simple-normal,all simple-not-normal∆0-geodesics.Proposition5.2.The set H ns∪H snn is an open subset of H and hence H sn is a closed subset of H.Proof.It is easy to see that the condition that either self-intersecting or ending obliquely at a boundary component is an open condition.For the open subset H ns∪H snn of H,we determine its structure by determining its maximal open intervals(which are the gaps we are looking for).By a generalized Birman–Series Theorem(see§7),the subset H sn of H has Hausdorffdimension0, and hence Lebesgue measure0.Therefore the open subset H ns∪H snn of H has full measure,and our generalized McShane’s identities(8)-(10)follow immediately. Definition5.3.A[∆0,∆0]-geodesic,γ,is an(oriented)∆0-geodesic which termi-nates at∆0perpendicularly.(With the orientation one can refer to its starting point and ending point.)Hence the same geodesic with reversed orientation(hence with the starting and ending points interchanged)is also a[∆0,∆0]-geodesic,de-noted by−γ.We say that a[∆0,∆0]-geodesicγis a degenerate simple[∆0,∆0]-geodesic if∆0is not aπcone point,andγis the double cover of a simple geodesic arc which connects∆0to an angleπcone point,that is,γreaches the angleπcone point along the simple geodesic arc and goes back to∆0along the same arc.Note that in this caseγ=−γ.We show that each non-degenerate simple[∆0,∆0]-geodesicγdetermines two maximal open intervals of H ns∪H snn as follows.(Their union is the main gap, defined later,determined byγ.)Consider the configurationγ∪H.Assumeγis non-degenerate and let H1and H2be the two sub-arcs with endpoints inclusive thatγdivides H into.Note thatγGENERALIZATIONS OF MCSHANE’S IDENTITY TO HYPERBOLIC CONE-SURFACES 15...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................△0δαδβαβγγαγβ.. 0α..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................γβγδβδα=γαFigure 1.intersects H twice (if H is taken to be a suitably small circle about ∆0when ∆0is a cone point).Let γ0be the sub-arc of γbetween the two intersection points.Thus we have two simple closed curves H 1∪γ0and H 2∪γ0on M .Their geodesic realizations are disjoint generalized simple closed geodesics,denoted α,βrespectively (except when M is a hyperbolic torus with a single geometric boundary component,in which case α=β).Note that α,βbound with ∆0an embedded geometric pair of pants,denoted P (γ),on M .Let δαbe the simple ∆0-geodesic arc in P (γ)which terminates at αand is normal to α.Similarly,let δβbe the simple ∆0-geodesic arc in P (γ)which terminates at βand is normal to β.Let [α,β]be the simple geodesic arc in P (γ)which connects αand βand is normal to them.See Figure 1.Cutting P (γ)along δα,δβand [α,β]one obtains two pieces;let the one which contains the initial part of γbe denoted P +(γ).There are two simple ∆0-geodesics,γαand γβ,in P (γ)such that they are asymptotic to αand βrespectively,and such that their initial parts are contained in P +(γ).See Figure 1.Lemma 5.4.Each ∆0-geodesic whose initial part lies in P +(γ)between γαand γor between γand γβis non-simple or simple-not-normal.The union of these two gaps between simple-normal ∆0-geodesics formed by non-simple and simple-not-normal ∆0-geodesics is called the main gap determined by γ.This lemma can be proved easily using a suitable model of the hyperbolic plane;see [27]for details.The idea is that a ∆0-geodesic ray whose initial part lies in P +(γ)between γαand γwill not intersect γαor γdirectly,so it must come back to intersect for first time either itself or ∆0,hence is either non-simple or simple but not-normal (that is,intersecting ∆0obliquely).More precisely,if ∆0is a cusp or a cone point all the ∆0-geodesics in the lemma are non-simple,while if ∆0is a boundary geodesic then there is a (critical)∆0-geodesic,ργ,whose initial part lies in P +(γ)between γαand γsuch that ργis non-simple and its only self-intersection is at its starting point on ∆0(and hence terminates there)and it has the property that each ∆0-geodesic whose initial part lies in P +(γ)between γαand ργis non-simple,while each ∆0-geodesic whose initial part lies in P +(γ)between ργand。

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