Septmeber 预测

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sep用法

sep用法

sep用法
使用SEP(Standard Error of the Prediction)进行预测误差估计是一种常见的统
计方法。

SEP是一种衡量预测模型的精确度和准确度的指标,它是预测值与观测值之间的差异的标准差。

使用SEP可以评估模型的预测能力和准确性。

当我们使用预测模型对未知数据进行预测时,我们希望预测值尽可能接近观测值。

SEP可以告诉我们预测误差的大小,以及预测值与观测值之间的差异。

SEP的计算方法相对简单,首先计算预测值与观测值之间的差异,然后将差异
平方,最后取平均值并开方即可得到SEP。

SEP值越小,说明模型的预测能力越好。

SEP可以用于各种预测模型的评估,如回归模型、时间序列模型等。

在实际应
用中,我们可以使用SEP来比较不同模型之间的预测性能,选择表现最好的模型
进行预测。

除了评估预测模型的性能外,SEP还可以用于确定预测结果的置信区间。

通过
计算SEP,我们可以估计预测值的上下界,从而量化预测的不确定性。

值得注意的是,SEP只是一种评估预测误差的方法,它并不能告诉我们模型的
拟合程度或因果关系。

在进行预测和分析时,我们需要综合考虑模型的准确性、可解释性和理论基础等因素。

总之,SEP是一种用于衡量预测模型精确度的统计指标,通过计算观测值与预
测值之间的差异,我们可以评估模型的预测能力和准确性。

使用SEP来评估模型
和确定预测结果的置信区间是一种常见的预测误差估计方法。

matlabseempempse计算公式

matlabseempempse计算公式

matlabseempempse计算公式
MPE(Mean Percentage Error)是一种常用的预测误差度量指标,它
用于评估预测值与真实值之间的平均相对误差。

MPE的计算公式如下:
MPE=(1/n)*Σ((F-A)/A)*100
其中,MPE表示Mean Percentage Error,n表示样本数量,F表示预
测值,A表示真实值,Σ表示求和运算。

MPE的值可以为正或负。

当MPE为正时,表示预测值高估了真实值;
当MPE为负时,表示预测值低估了真实值。

MPE的值越接近0,表示预测
的准确性越高。

MPSE(Mean Percentage Squared Error)是MPE的平方形式,用于
考虑误差的平方。

MPSE的计算公式如下:
MPSE=(1/n)*Σ(((F-A)/A)^2)*100
其中,MPSE表示Mean Percentage Squared Error,其余符号的含义
与MPE相同。

MPSE与MPE相比,对预测误差的平方进行了考虑,能够更加强调大
误差的影响,即当预测误差较大时,MPSE的值会更大。

需要注意的是,MPE和MPSE都是针对相对误差(即预测值与真实值
之间的差异)进行度量的指标,适用于连续性的预测问题。

在实际应用中,根据具体的场景和需求,可以选择合适的误差度量指标来评估模型的性能。

博易大师公式之短线专家

博易大师公式之短线专家

博易大师公式之短线专家博弈大师(澎博)指标源码:LT:=100;LU:=0;LV:=38.2;卖警:IF(LT,100,100),COLOR00FF00,POINTDOT;持多:IF(LU,38.2,38.2),COLORWHITE,POINTDOT;买警:IF(LU,0,0),COLORFFCC66,POINTDOT;LA:=REF(CLOSE,1);LB:=((SMA(MAX((CLOSE - LA),0),5,1) / SMA(ABS((CLOSE - LA)),5,1)) * 100);LC:=(HIGH - REF(HIGH,1));LD:=(REF(LOW,1) - LOW);LE:=SUM(MAX(MAX((HIGH - LOW),ABS((HIGH - REF(CLOSE,1)))),ABS((LOW - REF(CLOSE,1)))),10);LF:=SUM(IF(((LC > 0) AND (LC > LD)),LC,0),10);LG:=SUM(IF(((LD > 0) AND (LD > LC)),LD,0),10);LH:=((LF * 100) / LE);LI:=((LG * 100) / LE);LJ:=MA(((ABS((LI - LH)) / (LI + LH)) * 100),5);AV:=(LB + LJ);LK:=((100 * (HHV(HIGH,10) - CLOSE)) / (HHV(HIGH,10) - LLV(LOW,10)));LL:=(LB - LK);LM:=(AV + LL);LO:=((((2 * CLOSE) + HIGH) + LOW) / 4);LP:=LLV(LOW,34);LQ:=HHV(HIGH,34);LR:=EMA((((LO - LP) / (LQ - LP)) * 100),13);LS:=EMA(((0.667 * REF(LR,1)) + (0.333 * LR)),2);向导线:=LLV(LM,1);STICKLINE((向导线>225),95,90,6,1),COLORFFCC00;STICKLINE((向导线>235),100,95,6,1),COLORRED;STICKLINE(CROSS(235,向导线),100,90,6,1),COLOR00FF00;STICKLINE((LM<(0-1)),0,5,6,1),COLOR00FF00;STICKLINE((LM<(0-5)),5,10,6,1),COLORYELLOW;STICKLINE(CROSS(向导线,(0-3)),0,10,6,1),COLORRED;STICKLINE(((LR-LS)>0),LR,LS,10,1),COLORRED;STICKLINE(((LR-LS)<0),LR,LS,10,1),COLORFFCC66;VAR0:=(2*CLOSE+HIGH+LOW)/4;VAR1:=(HHV(HIGH,24)-CLOSE)/(HHV(HIGH,24)-LLV(LOW,24))*100;VAR2:=(CLOSE-LLV(LOW,18))/(HHV(HIGH,18)-LLV(LOW,18))*100;B:=EMA((VAR0-LLV(LOW,26))/(HHV(HIGH,34)-LLV(LOW,26))*100,16);短线:SMA(SMA(VAR2,2,1)+3,2,1),COLORYELLOW;VAR11:=(2*CLOSE+HIGH+LOW+OPEN)/5;VAR21:=LLV(LOW,34);VAR31:=HHV(HIGH,34);SK:= EMA((VAR11-VAR21)/(VAR31-VAR21)*100,13);SD:= EMA(SK,3);VAR41:=IF(CROSS(SK,SD),40,22);买进: VAR41;使用方法:复制上述代码码粘贴到到公式管理器。

梅斯线指标

梅斯线指标

梅斯线指标
梅斯线指标(Mesa Adaptive Moving Average)是由John Ehlers开发的一种技术分析指标,主要用于短期波动市场的预
测和交易决策。

梅斯线指标的特点是能够根据市场的波动性自适应地调整其平滑系数,从而更好地适应不同市场条件下的股价走势。

它使用了一种称为“正弦波观测”的方法来衡量价格规律的周期性和幅度,并将这些信息应用于移动平均线的计算。

梅斯线指标的计算过程包括以下几个步骤:
1. 根据给定的价格数据计算价格的差值。

2. 对差值进行快速和慢速的正弦变换。

3. 根据正弦变换的结果计算快速和慢速的幅度。

4. 根据计算出的幅度确定平滑系数。

5. 使用确定的平滑系数计算梅斯线指标的值。

梅斯线指标的交易信号通常包括买入和卖出的触发条件。

比如,当梅斯线从下向上穿越价格时,发出买入信号;当梅斯线从上向下穿越价格时,发出卖出信号。

梅斯线指标的优点在于其能够根据市场的实际情况自适应地调整平滑系数,从而更好地反映市场的短期波动性。

然而,在实际应用中,梅斯线指标也存在一些问题,比如对极端行情的反应不够灵敏,容易产生误判等。

因此,投资者在使用梅斯线指标时还需结合其他指标和交易策略进行分析和判断。

squeeze指标

squeeze指标

squeeze指标
(最新版)
目录
1.SQUEEZE 指标的定义和含义
2.SQUEEZE 指标的计算方法和使用规则
3.SQUEEZE 指标在投资和交易中的应用
4.SQUEEZE 指标的优缺点及局限性
正文
SQUEEZE 指标,全称为"Sentiment Quotient and Queueing System for Investment Expectations",即投资预期情绪指数和排队系统,是一种用于衡量市场情绪和交易者预期的技术指标。

该指标起源于股票市场,现已被广泛应用于各类金融市场,如外汇、期货等。

SQUEEZE 指标的计算方法较为复杂,它综合了多种技术分析指标,包括移动平均线、相对强弱指数(RSI)、布林带等。

其核心思想是通过分析市场价格、交易量和市场情绪等多方面信息,判断市场趋势的强弱和可能的变化。

在使用 SQUEEZE 指标时,投资者需要关注以下几个方面:首先,通过观察指标的数值,可以判断市场是处于超买还是超卖状态,从而决定买入或卖出的时机;其次,当指标的数值达到极端值时,可能预示着市场趋势即将发生反转;最后,投资者还可以通过观察指标在不同时间周期内的表现,来判断短期和长期趋势的变化。

SQUEEZE 指标在投资和交易中的应用十分广泛,其优点在于能够较为准确地反映市场情绪和交易者预期,从而帮助投资者捕捉市场机会。

然而,SQUEEZE 指标也存在一定的局限性和缺点,例如在市场波动较大或信息不对称的情况下,指标的准确性可能会受到影响。

总之,SQUEEZE 指标作为一种重要的技术分析工具,对于投资者在金融市场中进行投资和交易具有重要的参考价值。

randomforest predict概率

randomforest predict概率

randomforest predict概率
在使用随机森林模型进行预测时,默认情况下会返回每个类别的预测概率。

随机森林模型通过集成多个单独的决策树来进行预测,最终的预测结果是基于这些决策树的投票或平均得出的。

因此,在预测时,随机森林模型会将所有决策树的预测结果结合起来,并返回每个类别的预测概率。

这些预测概率可以用来衡量模型对每个类别的置信度。

通常,概率越高,模型对该类别的预测越有信心。

因此,在使用随机森林模型进行分类预测时,可以使用预测概率来选择最有可能的类别,或者利用这些概率进一步进行后续的分析和决策。

在scikit-learn库中,可以使用`predict_proba`方法来获取随机
森林模型的预测概率。

例如,如果`rf`是已经训练好的随机森
林分类器,则可以使用`rf.predict_proba(X)`来获取输入数据`X`的预测概率。

这个方法会返回一个二维数组,其中每一行代表一个样本,每一列代表一个类别,数组中的值则是对应类别的预测概率。

需要注意的是,有些随机森林模型可能并不返回完全准确的概率。

例如,如果随机森林包含了回归树,它们的预测值并不是概率,而是取值范围内的某个具体数值。

因此,在使用随机森林模型进行预测时,要先了解具体模型的预测概率是否可靠。

python实现的sarima序列预测代码

python实现的sarima序列预测代码

SARIMA(季节自回归整合移动平均模型)是一种时间序列预测模型,可以使用Python中的statsmodels库实现。

以下是一个示例代码,用于使用SARIMA模型预测一个时间序列:```pythonimport pandas as pdimport numpy as npimport matplotlib.pyplot as pltfrom statsmodels.tsa.statespace.sarimax import SARIMAX# 生成一个随机时间序列np.random.seed(123)n = 100y = np.random.normal(size=n)# 将时间序列转换为pandas Series对象ts = pd.Series(y)# 定义SARIMA模型model = SARIMAX(ts, order=(1, 1, 1), seasonal_order=(1, 1, 1, 12))# 拟合模型并预测未来的值model_fit = model.fit(disp=False)forecast = model_fit.forecast(steps=10)[0]# 可视化原始时间序列和预测值plt.plot(ts)plt.plot(model_fit.predict(), color='red')plt.show()```在上述代码中,我们首先生成了一个随机时间序列,并将其转换为pandas Series对象。

然后,我们定义了一个SARIMA模型,并使用fit()方法拟合模型。

最后,我们使用forecast()方法预测未来的值,并使用matplotlib库可视化原始时间序列和预测值。

pice 区间预测评价指标

pice 区间预测评价指标

pice 区间预测评价指标介绍区间预测是一种用于评估预测模型性能的指标。

传统的预测模型仅给出一个确定性的预测结果,而区间预测则给出了一个范围,该范围包含未来观测值的真实值。

pice(Probability Integral Cumulative Evaluation)是一种常用的区间预测评价指标,它计算模型预测的区间概率积分累积。

pice 指标原理pice 指标基于预测区间和实际观测值之间的概率差异。

它衡量了预测区间和实际观测值之间的重叠程度,从而评估预测模型的准确性和可靠性。

pice 指标的计算步骤如下:1.对于每个观测值,计算预测区间与实际值之间的概率累积积分。

2.对所有观测值的概率累积积分求平均,得到 pice 值。

pice 值越小,表示预测模型的准确性越高,预测区间与实际观测值之间的重叠程度越高。

pice 指标的优点pice 指标具有以下优点:•考虑了预测区间的宽度和预测准确性的双重因素。

•适用于任意分布类型的预测模型。

•能够对比不同模型的性能,选择最佳模型。

pice 指标的应用场景pice 指标可以应用于各种预测问题中,包括但不限于以下场景:1.股票市场预测:利用 pice 指标评估股票价格的预测模型,判断模型的可靠性。

2.天气预报:使用 pice 指标衡量天气预报模型的准确性,提高预测的可信度。

3.交通流量预测:通过 pice 指标评估交通流量预测模型,选择适合的模型进行交通规划和管理。

pice 指标的计算方法pice 指标的计算方法可以使用以下步骤:1.给定一个预测模型和一组观测值。

2.对于每个观测值,计算预测区间的累积概率。

3.将每个观测值的累积概率求平均,得到 pice 值。

具体的计算公式如下:pice = sum(P(X < x_low) + P(X > x_high)) / (2 * n)其中,x_low和x_high分别表示预测区间的下界和上界,P(X < x_low)表示观测值小于下界的概率,P(X > x_high)表示观测值大于上界的概率,n表示观测值的数量。

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Septmeber, 2014Part 1:(some general Q’s about yourself and your life)Do you live in a house or a flat? Have you ever considered moving to another place? Which is your favourite room in your house/ flat? Do you like your neighbours?How often do you take a taxi? When was the last time you took a taxi? Do you think bicycles will become more popular in the future? Have you ever travelled by train? Do people in your country like to travel by train? Can you drive? Do you like travelling by car?Can you tell me something about your favorite kind of TV shows? Do you think the TV shows today are different from the TV shows you watched as a child?How many languages can you speak? Do you want to learn another language? How are you going to learn it?Do you often write things by hand? Do you think handwriting is still an important skill today?Do you often use computers? Do you think children should be encouraged to use computers? Why?Do you often use dictionaries? Do you use paper dictionaries or electronic dictionaries?Do you often use maps when travelling? Which do you prefer - electronic maps or paper maps?Do you like pets? Why do people keep pets? Do you like wild animals? Do you think zoos are still important today?Do you think gardens and parks are important to cities? What do people do in gardens / parks?Do you prefer to write letters or emails? What do you use your mobile phone for?How do you get news these days?What do you do to relax? Does playing outdoor sports help you relax? Why? Do vacations help you relax?What do you usually do at weekends? Which day is your busiest day of the week?What's your favorite kind of food? Do you like fast food? What was your favorite food as a child? Who cooks in your family? Do you want to take cooking classes? Are cooking shows popular in China? Do you think children should learn how to cook?Do you like shopping? Do you often buy things online? Where do you usually buy clothing? What’s your favourite kind of clothing? What kind of clothing do you wear fo r parties? Do you often help your friends shop for clothing? What are the differences between street markets and supermarkets?Do you like going to parties? Why? Do you prefer to go to parties with your family or with your friends? What do you dislike about parties?Which birthday left you with the deepest impression? Did you receive any gifts for that birthday?Do you prefer to celebrate your birthday with your family members or your friends? Who are more important to you – your friends or your relatives?Do you like taking photos? Do you like to take photos outdoors or indoors? Do you prefer to take photos with your camera or with your mobile phone? Is photography popular in China?Do you like drawing and painting? Do you think children can benefit from drawing and painting? What’re your favourite colours? Why you like them?Do you like art? Do you often visit museums and art galleries? Do you think they should offer free admission to visitors?What’s your favourite kind of music? Do you play any instru ments?Do you think sunshine can make people happy? Does it often rain in your city? Do you like rainy days? What’s your favourite type of weather? Do you like very hot or very cold weather?What games did you like to play when you were a child? What games do children play these days? What are the most popular sports in China? What’re the differences between sports played by boys and sports played by girls?What kinds of advertisements are popular in China? Do you often buy advertised products?Do you li ke history? Who’s your favourite historical figure?Do you concentrate better in the morning or in the evening? How can you improve your concentration?September, 2014Part 2:城市与建筑Describe a new house.(Keep in mind you can reuse the same ideas for different topic cards.)Describe a new place you moved to.Describe a place where you wish to have a home.Describe a garden / park.Describe a beautiful place in your hometown.Describe a trip by public transport (such as bus or train).Describe a place far away from your home.Describe a holiday that you spent far away from home.Describe a place where you experienced a new culture.Describe a school you went to when you were a child.Describe a place where you studied or worked before.Describe a shopping mall.Describe a shopping street.Describe a famous building in your city. / Describe an important building in your city.Describe an old building in your city.Describe an interesting building in your country.Describe a tourist attraction you visited.Describe an interesting foreign country you wish to visit.Describe a foreign culture.Describe a city you visited before.个人与组织Describe a situation when you received useful advice.Describe something you like to do with the elderly people in your family. Describe an interesting old person.Describe a person you spend a lot of time with.Describe an intelligent person.Describe a good friend of yours.Describe an occasion when you met an old friend of yours.Describe a conversation you had with a stranger.Describe a famous singer in your country.Describe a comic star who’s popular in your country.Describe a sports star.Describe a famous person in your country. / Describe a celebrity in your country. Describe a famous person in another country.Describe an important job.Describe an interesting job.自然界Describe your favourite wild animal.Describe an interesting animal.Describe a river / lake / sea.Describe a place near water.Describe your favourite weather.Describe your favourite season.休闲娱乐Describe your favourite sport.Describe a sports event.Describe a sports game / competition you watched.Describe a book you enjoyed as a child.Describe a book you would like to read again.Describe your favourite TV show.Describe a foreign film that you like.Describe a film that you dislike.Describe a show / performance you watched.Describe a useful website.事件Describe a group activity(a group game, a group presentation or a sports match …). / Describe something that you did with a group of people.Describe a time when you felt proud of a friend of yours / your friends’ success.Describe a positive experience in your childhood.Describe a time when you shared something with others.Describe a time when you were very busy.Describe something you forgot to do.Describe a competition you’d like to take part in.Describe an event that changed your life.Describe a decision that took you a long time to make.Describe an important letter or email you received.Describe a memorable birthday party.Describe a time when someone took a photo of you.Describe a family celebration.Describe an occasion when you were dressed formally.Describe a happy thing / a happy event in your childhood.Describe an indoor activity you often did as a child.Describe your favourite subject.Describe a subject you did NOT like in high school.Describe a foreign language you wish to learn (not English).物品Describe a time when you saved money for something special.Describe a toy you had as a child.Describe an ad that helped you buy something.Describe a product made in your region.Describe a popular product made in your country.Describe a piece of electronic equipment that is NOT a computer.Describe something you can’t live without (that’s NOT a computer or a mobile phon e). Describe a mobile phone.Describe a piece of equipment that was broken.Describe a problem you had with a digital device.Describe something you bought on a holiday trip.Describe something you bought but haven’t used much.Describe your favourite magazine.Describe something that helps you learn another language.Describe someone who helped you learn a foreign language.Describe a photo you like.Describe a home-made gift you gave a friend.Describe a gift you received when you were a child.Describe a special item (or piece) of clothing. / Describe your favourite clothes or accessories.Describe a vehicle you wish to buy.Day 10Describe a good law.Describe a traffic jam.Describe a work of art such as a sculpture, a painting or a drawing.Describe a museum or an art gallery.Describe a family business.Describe a science subject you studied in secondary school. / Describe a course you took in secondary school.Describe a special meal. / Describe a special meal you were invited to.Describe a restaurant you like.Describe an old object your family has kept for a long time.1 In some countries, the proportion of people aged 15 or younger is increasing. What effects will this trend have on these countries?2 Mobile phones and the Internet are useful tools. However, not many elderly people use them. In what ways can mobile phones and the Internet be useful to elderly people? How can elderly people be encouraged to use them?3 Distance education delivered over the Internet or television has more advantages than classroom-based education. Do you agree or disagree?4 Schools should only offer subjects that are beneficial to students’ future career success. To what extent do you agree or disagree?5 Some people think that students should study in groups. Others, however, argue that students should study alone. Discuss both these views and give your own opinion.6 Universities should accept equal numbers of male and female students in every subject. Do you agree or disagree?7 Some people think that children should obey rules. Others, however, believe that children who are controlled too much by their parents and teachers will not be well prepared for their adult life. Discuss both these views and give your own opinion.8 Students from rural areas often find it difficult to access university education. Some people think that universities should make it easier for them to access higher education. To what extent do you agree or disagree?9 More and more people are moving from rural areas to cities in search of a better life, but city life has its own problems. What are these problems? Suggest some solutions.10 In modern cities, urban planners tend to place shops, schools, offices, and homes in specific areas. To what extent do you think the advantages of this outweigh the disadvantages?11 The government should pay for people’s education and health care. To what extent do you agree or disagree?12 Some people believe that governments should give financial support to artists such as film-makers, musicians and painters. Others, however, argue that artists should be funded by other sources. Discuss both these views and give your own opinion.13 As the number of cars increases, more money has to be spent on the road systems. Some people think that governments should be responsible for the costs. Others, however, argue that car users should pay for the costs. Discuss both these views and give your own opinion.14 A long-distance flight consumes the same amount of fuel and causes the same amount of pollution as a car does in several years' time. Some people think that to reduce environmental problems, we should discourage non-essential flights instead of limiting the use of cars. Do you agree or disagree?15 Some people believe that only the fittest and strongest individuals and teams can succeed in sports. Others think that success in sports depends on mental attitudes. Discuss both these views and give your own opinion.16 Some people believe that international co-operation has many benefits for environmental protection, while others argue that it has more benefits for international business and tourism. Discuss both these views and give your own opinion.17 In some countries, charities have set up some special days, such as National Children’s Day and National Anti-Smoking Day. What are the purposes of these special days? Are they effective?18 Detailed descriptions of crimes in the media should be strictly controlled. To what extent do you agree or disagree?19 Some people believe that new developments in agriculture, such as factory farming and creations of new types of vegetables, have brought more benefits than problems. Do you agree or disagree?20 Animal experiments have been used to develop new medicines and to test the safety of many other products. Some people think that these experiments should be banned. To what extent do you agree or disagree?。

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