全世界主要年份能源生产总量统计(2005-2014)
2023年统计师之初级统计基础理论及相关知识题库附答案(基础题)
2023年统计师之初级统计基础理论及相关知识题库附答案（基础题）单选题（共40题）1、完善（）的法律制度，是2009年修订《统计法》的重中之重A.统计人员职责B.保障统计数据质量C.行政问责制D.减轻统计调查对象的负担【答案】 B2、偿还期在一年以上或者超过一年的一个营业周期以上的负债是（）。
A.流动负债B.应付款项C.短期借款D.长期负债【答案】 D3、大型企业每月月末需要向有关部门提供财务报表数据。
这属于（）A.统计报表B.普查C.重点调查D.抽样调查【答案】 A4、统计法是由国家制定的关于统计活动的（）。
A.统计制度B.发展规划C.行为准则D.统计方案【答案】 C5、地方性统计法规既不能与统计法律相抵触，也不能与（）相抵触。
A.地方统计规章B.统计行政法规C.统计规范性文件D.部门统计规章【答案】 B6、下列关于农林牧渔劳动力的说法，不正确的是（）。
A.是指全社会直接参加农林牧渔业生产活动的劳动力B.分为整劳动力和半劳动力C.在劳动年龄内的人员都应算作劳动力D.整劳动力是指男子18～50周岁，女子18～45周岁【答案】 C7、下列选项中，属于时间序列的有（）。
A.某城市100户居民家庭按月收入高低形成的数列B.一个月内每天某一固定时点记录的气温按度数高低排列形成的序列C.工业企业按产值高低形成的数列D.2005～2014年某地区能源消费总量形成的数列【答案】 D8、单位产品成本报告期比基期下降10％，产量增长10％，则总的生产总费用（）A.增加B.减少C.没有变化D.无法判断【答案】 B9、《中国统计年鉴》中我国历年的GDP数据是（）。
A.次级数据B.原始数据C.分类数据D.顺序数据【答案】 A10、下列变量中，属于分类变量的是（）。
A.产量B.收入C.性别D.体重【答案】 C11、普查的特点之一，就是要确定调查的标准时间，其目的是（）。
A.保证调查的及时性B.便于组织调查C.避免所登记资料发生重复或遗漏D.使历次相关调查能保持连续性【答案】 C12、2014年5月份，全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨2.5%，货币购买力将（）。
世界能源发展年表
世界能源发展年表2000年：可再生能源的起步在新世纪的第一个十年中，可再生能源开始引起全球范围内的关注。
许多国家开始鼓励和支持发展太阳能、风能和生物能等可再生能源，并制定了相关政策以增加可再生能源的使用比例。
2005年：能源效率的重要性凸显随着能源需求的不断增长，能源效率成为全球范围内的热门话题。
各国政府纷纷制定能源效率政策，推动产业和民众采取节能措施。
节能技术得到了广泛发展和应用，为能源消耗的合理利用带来新的可能。
2010年：碳排放问题引起广泛关注人们对碳排放的影响开始产生更为深刻的认识。
各国开始在能源行业中加强碳排放监管，并鼓励使用低碳能源。
同时，核能也受到了一些国家的追捧，作为一种低碳能源形式，核能在能源供应结构中扮演着重要角色。
2015年：可再生能源的大规模发展随着科技的进步和政策的支持，可再生能源在全球范围内得到了大规模发展。
太阳能、风能和生物能的装机容量急剧增加，成为能源供应的重要来源。
同时，能源存储技术也得到了改善，提高了可再生能源的可靠性和可持续性。
2020年：能源转型的关键一年世界能源行业迎来了重要的转型期。
传统化石能源的使用逐渐减少，取而代之的是可再生能源和清洁能源。
各国政府纷纷承诺减少温室气体排放，实施更为严格的环境保护政策，并加大对可再生能源技术的研发和推广。
2025年：能源互联网的崛起在推动能源转型的过程中，能源互联网的概念逐渐兴起。
能源互联网通过智能电网、分布式能源系统和能源互联网技术等手段，实现能源的高效利用和共享。
这一概念的提出将进一步推动全球能源领域的发展和创新。
2030年：全球能源合作共赢随着全球能源格局的重塑，各国开始加强能源领域的合作与交流。
能源供应的多元化和跨国能源交易成为现实，共同应对气候变化和能源安全等问题成为共同关注的焦点。
全球能源合作进入新阶段，为全球能源未来发展打下坚实基础。
总结：世界能源发展年表展示了能源行业在过去几十年中的重要进展和变革。
从可再生能源的起步到能源转型的关键一年，再到能源互联网的崛起和全球能源合作的共赢，能源领域正迎来着深刻的变革和创新。
各省能源消耗总量
上海
3175 3467 3657 3947 4177 4466 4782 4759 4874 5208 5492 5818 6119 6796 7406 8225 8876 9670 10207 10367 11201 11270 11362
江苏
5509 5781 6296 6626 7358 8047 8111 7991 8118 8164 8612 8881 9609 11060 13652 17167 19041 20948 22232 23709 25774 27589 28850
广西壮族 自治区 1309 1387 1549 1809 2048 2384 2422 2605 2438 2473 2669 2669 2982 3523 4203 4869 5390 5997 6497 7075 7919 8591 9155
海南
121 179 215 242 279 303 345 390 407 431 480 520 602 684 742 822 920 1057 1135 1233 1359 1601 1688
内蒙古自 治区 2424 2505 2555 2676 2812 2632 2822 3374 3050 3803 3540 4073 4560 5778 7623 9666 11221 12777 14100 15344 16820 18737 19786
注：
①19951999各省 市数据来 源于《中 国能源统 计年鉴 19971999》， 20002002各省 市数据来 源于《中 国能源统 计年鉴 20002002 》,20032004各省 市数据来 源于《中 国能源统 计年鉴 2006》， 1990、 20052012各省 市数据来 源于《中 国能源统 ②全国数 据（发热 煤耗计算 法） 19902013来源 于《中国 统计年鉴 2014》
中国能源统计年鉴2004年-2016年地区能源平衡表消费量合计统计表
地区能源平衡表：消费量合计煤合计原煤洗精煤其他洗煤型煤煤矸石序号省份年份(万吨)(万吨)(万吨)(万吨)(万吨)(万吨) 1北京20042939.642425.31505.958.15 3.41 1北京20053068.972605.37455.38.28 2.421北京20063055.672692.64338.548.0544.721北京20072984.672741.56227.329.1133.271北京20082747.732522.02223.948.8524.871北京20092664.72452.61214.859.3220.21北京20102634.622415.41220.52 6.4334.620.37 1北京20112365.532358.9813.1729.730.11 1北京20122269.892264.7914.3427.251北京20132019.232011.7112.34022.231北京20141736.541728.2510.050.0217.751北京20151165.181153.578.710.0317.081北京2016847.62841.810.02 1.16 6.222天津20043508.573025.25483.322天津20053801.453289.27512.182天津20063809.313226.55582.762天津20073926.73394.32532.382天津20083972.773485.24487.532天津20094119.653633.1486.552天津20104806.794362.1424.5116.87 3.3158.65 2天津20115261.54799431.128.11 3.2957.71 2天津20125298.124855.55419.9820.88 1.7164.08 2天津20135278.674832.5427.1817.62 1.3716.36 2天津20145027.284597.19403.1425.44 1.5114.71 2天津20154538.834172.65350.3914.11 1.6817.68 2天津20164230.163865.1529667.64 1.3715.9 3河北200417084.2616952.82370.14804.9785.153河北200520542.3919383.293366.941149.2586.453河北200621345.4219580.724426.211100.84115.463河北200724548.5122437.175454.861148.69112.23河北200824418.6222898.375493.19916.18174.223河北200926515.8124050.596933.33919.19279.663河北201027464.7226676.517183.47742.88278.3348.21 3河北201130791.7528747.198663.86818.29313.94379.83 3河北20123135930248.899246.91799.99241.13254.18 3河北201331663.2731346.689275.9227.24264.41233.81 3河北201429635.5429776.338122.52653.97204.38192.89 3河北201528943.1330140.467627.02172.91300.27307.97 3河北201628105.6528608.057112.78641.24270.58202.19 4山西200422432.6725352.36403.84736.7432.314山西200525681.4278508571.16863.1528.064山西200628351.2231255.9810498.75900.5634.044山西200729203.4832878.7912566.851890.285.164山西200828372.7132603.7211082.881778.65184.534山西200927761.9332207.7110354.691476.51148.584山西201029865.135315.1711523.581427.14139.852248.64 4山西201133478.6541395.5612436.121724.53167.682225.89 4山西201234551.1746049.512023.181782.28182.62208.75 4山西201336636.518118512704.871790.41158.521133.18 4山西201437587.4384055.812340.031728.76166.931328.7 4山西201537115.179799.5511265.521611.03135.461225.21 4山西201635621.0377492.0110935.82117.46124.971461.45内蒙古200411391.4411646.4875.51482.58102.175内蒙古200513921.8113910.211182.17598.41 1.385内蒙古200616188.88160901300.15757.229.015内蒙古200718531.5118560.731696.14870.4317.515内蒙古200822241.8422962.121712.11992.44229.845内蒙古200924047.324528.822105.261317.29303.375内蒙古201027004.0429657.12873.231639.97300.48613.55 5内蒙古201134683.5139528.363389.06641.77233.19921.77 5内蒙古201236620.4941421.53723.52431.01166.78645.58 5内蒙古201334915.7241475.154037.65401.2639.38694.28 5内蒙古201436465.9742741.244473.36381.8935.64984.46 5内蒙古201536499.7640474.133929.19305.2649.2786.43 5内蒙古201636675.3240491.873308.7497.3661.09781.06 6辽宁200411945.1811475.51618.99902.5413.756辽宁200513069.6712116.612059.37891.5 6.56辽宁200614211.3112860.492334.17975.5611.766辽宁200715224.3213339.142550.081151.99.866辽宁200815346.6613381.522713.141138.6811.86辽宁200916032.5214468.422924.111055.9411.356辽宁201016908.4315311.142926.591033.0731.74187.35 6辽宁201118053.616320.363142.791110.7737.2339.12 6辽宁201218218.8616474.023160.271108.138.77614.15 6辽宁201318132.77166943482.57474.0821.9529.35 6辽宁201418002.2716383.253441.05495.2925.22464.89 6辽宁201517336.3615387.243284.78563.6224.85440.86 6辽宁201616943.714806.82921.04714.337.15505.78 7吉林20045715.025432336.682.9410.697吉林20056802.486458.15419.67108.5213.027吉林20067548.837445.25359.4187.739.987吉林20077846.567935.75547.3582.6114.427吉林20088367.428371.34576.8660.4515.897吉林20098588.918896.59648.1468.1716.427吉林20109582.6610087.31712.8263.815.65 5.32 7吉林201111035.2911909.25861.35 4.8617.42 6.81 7吉林201211082.6712187.99825.37 5.0212.627.02 7吉林201310413.7410502.45728.94483.1511.7335.85 7吉林201410379.3410453.85677.49638.327.710.13 7吉林20159805.319698.71557.12430.86 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3201.3181.2761.2246.1911.3853.054074.396480.07 3296.9481.38764.7251.9211.660.24083.526364.79 3187.5680.71782.0655.7514.2759.984470.366439.87 2993.0681.92842.8959.167.1847.424441.577057 249.997.8439.28 3.66582.68833.01 336.9214.3360.88 4.36872.62968.36 367.238.4455.77 4.351009.01954.94 408.4111.8553.93 4.21177.37986.08 541.8214.2667.50.61832.31915.24 593.114.7172.90.86845.39851.89 640.6114.4978.36 3.7 1.65994.12939.97 757.7112.73107.87 6.430.641079.151064.58 670.112.64115.357.320.721002.2977.05 719.7711.58122.099.2320.221019.851002.13 664.7213.71129.369.4112.061013.5999.37 532.8212.41116.947.759.12949.56960.34 477.69.59101.577.449.15973.871051.2997.34 3.0522.18.481405.611616.07 142.06 5.7139.288.261495.071785.01 210.7 4.8623.789.421621.281850.06 226.92 5.6727.6916.291592.861886.02 227.39.7428.0416.051394.341735.97 321.910.2726.1930.21744.282065.13 271.3313.2934.93 1.5323.5949.831891.842106.53 272.7518.2537.83 1.1918.7666.252128.122200.93 331.0921.3134.13 2.0413.6551.652252.232166.48 337.6521.0948.67 3.6612.143.271847.772127.02 194.0718.2842.08 2.6611.0155.62000.312141.97 185.6815.2831.77 2.1115.4150.082032.232123.9 184.199.5625.11 1.712.2731.971914.642210.42 590.6528.51103.9140.312080.171842.29 630.5128.11117.4240.22200.371967655.4623.3109.4738.372698.021832.84 729.724.04123.5554.872879.91719.57 714.4427.03122.6960.852882.531951.55 677.6823.2129.4773.682990.431937.18 717.0827.58106.0312.1916.83110.193297.932126.5 714.1527.9646.49108.723148.042134.69 673.1727.2435.44110.543259.992210.55 640.323.72232.1812.69 6.0890.543396.342611.76 654.8421.18236.0912.69 3.0385.332922242.07 630.7522.84241.8113.060.5282.823460.192526.11 596.9522.89227.5613.8578.373632.982474.23 801.0718.07116.3211.211999.111875.39 1593.1219.05133.3529.522218.512264.76 1844.4926.03243.1447.722249.642302.7 1884.725.03231.853.272354.432454 1888.9527.94286.4354.262401.662313.13 2221.224.26321.362.332639.872661.44 2663.4737.75544.7826.690.5339.062570.292998.55 3151.4744.0458.23100.3329.342572.542981.07 3170.150.0360.0214.420.1334.482934.512947.99 3190.6148.48813.4847.820.3130.452814.23394.78 3408.647.39927.5453.38 1.0237.293047.683511.4 3588.6143.09926.261.19 1.153.753087.83823.2 3840.2144.16985.9862.95 1.1462.263178.094092.04 149.21 2.41 1.2444.391692.091853.44 163.59 2.3310.15 4.731931.922113.04 317.76 2.26 4.690.071932.832114.73 326.4 2.3515.110.11976.532248.73 485.98 4.7319.580.512067.132287.35 504.51 4.7733.43 1.472311.892505.8 443.09 6.7287.67 5.640.18 2.292518.362835.41 470 6.9866.78 2.870.22 2.082708.392939.77 451.427.13152.668.950.22 1.882750.82732.59 446.18 6.94154.899.240.23 3.452813.922853.65 465.077167.4110.990.22 1.782781.412731.81 427.59 6.69152.6611.060.217.692970.212846.84 329.47 4.44103.429.680.1920.722909.032667.35 544.2913.490.1 2.7441.06419.79 538.3917.6731.7632.41476.35414.49 652.2216.8625.4532.11532.31445.4 809.722.844.6238.64563.09451.08 851.2224.86111.23577.98426.34 856.2828.190.317.93605.71454.13 910.1724.98100.41 1.0911.2614.2637.77477.57 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1743.4461.92246.8 3.5996.1728.91334.16835.07 2052.6334.3229.6119.4836.841524.78874.63 2221.9326.44203.23 5.6291.8545.681692.61010.02 1817.4723.13264.268.4832.5165.491951.1963.57 2700.9432.44284.7911.939.9169.921978.04845.17 2843.5231.94286.9811.8445.9691.462100.77847.26 3045.954.63304.0112.9839.69127.342158.88707.29 560.3619.81 1.2620.471027.67754.01 685.4731.216 6.611252.95822.13 752.1322.524.7162.421387.95851.1 82027.6221.8533.821648.21910 952.2730.6632.5936.591807.53884.26 910.7634.951.644.961914.41946.61120.8339.58333.1518.248.1430.281760.321033.86 1172.7242.05360.0319.62 4.817.591851.581026.23 1113.8539.5338.7718.84 3.7412.961987.6947.74 1114.3938.47338.5819.54 3.78 4.392268.351176.72 1124.438.13330.6720.4149.142505.151290.87 1030.0137.8315.5320.290.5248.572551.161299.01 1095.3135.69316.2522.140.531.682529.391239.61 553.3710.897.578.1656.24615.79 756.5811.3126.3718.53858.04660.86 823.1212.8648.825.68908.45574.49 915.8914.382.6721.381017.12671.67 998.913.31150.4724.27935.91614.11 1011.9216.15165.7825.641042.19565.77 1089.1913.13173.0810.45 1.8824.651145.84587.6 851.6520.36188.139.94 2.124.431234.55766.03 1072.1314.79186.249.43 1.2825.761302.74926 1075.8214.91175.4510.890.0125.191520.2946.54 1040.2915.120.1524.091559.52801.03456.841.38 1145.0515.34181.9312.4424.341734.45878.46 960.519.56343.4511.8411844.2841.6 278.03 5.4669.35 2.74132.452391.35 300.16 4.3779.14 3.14968.122388.37 410.78 4.12106.53 3.385224.172805.71 460.97 3.19108.56 2.385354.82940.1 449.6 3.82114 6.6253513046.21 466.43 3.92114.289.785277.043709.44 485.97 6.487.49 3.6319.6511.585563.444455.31 552.13 6.94133.17 4.6418.2510.655462.214403.37 545.5 6.51182.857.9718.5511.255481.094511.51 585.02 5.9190.029.5521.469.845178.254729.48 558.05 6.4182.6311.5523.210.185319.574765.76 543.028.29175.9314.4229.067.085619.244899.6 782.4618.04263.8217.9421.437.065942.095044.45 344.16665.947.98526.8282.36 441.956132.2614.56621.697.71 451.2610.02103.32657.92118.21 520.4210.41107.9716.78152.98 580.0312.78124.88 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894.54675.05140.81 1003.67-0.01-0.01-0.01832.54174.94 1144.050.824.78-0.01972.88239.95 1119.1-0.01-0.01-0.011134.57285.49 1121.991309.2315.68 1353.6433.09243.91 5.88 1.1227.221497.38351.76 1438.8536.29250.3310.21 1.4918.541824.5361.75 1562.8541.28252.4911.75 1.5766.091960.54351.47 1760.1350.28315.7215.070.91376.722395306.49 1863.8846.83318.8415.590.46449.432724.13865.4 1853.3141.36299.6614.58496.573029.06989.56 1636.3639.53308.1214.37465.353137.38902.77 269.069.11200.950 333.867.09237.420 477.057.83281.72486.0610.85 6.46367.25450.979.62 1.78 5.11431.15367.7911.52 3.4 5.78432.91380.4412.4755.03 2.11 1.77 6.12493.81402.8812.5167 2.73 2.027.23545.94382.2614.383.45 4.09 1.3727.65561.89423.4616.0177.22 4.29 2.5621.2658.16375.3113.1870.44 3.210.621.08683.030 310.4212.3953.09 3.530.0125.33842.40.02 253.4211.3355.85 4.44 4.3827.57944.740.02 1046.32 5.5922.828.04176.660.06 1223.368.8464.3617.62457.910.07 1252.017.8568.1819.82520.610.07 1377.397.86101.2816.37602.190.11 1331.4316.53106.3232.4656.570.06 1276.3317.94144.8625.63697.870.07 1231.2122.08141.71 4.650.2836.89899.110.06 880.2324.0436.96 2.40.5811.01970.642598.46 1338.8720.87192.41 6.87 1.2446.271069.870.02 1347.5720.36196.949.960.9562.45996.310.03。
2014年BP世界能源统计年鉴解读
2014年BP世界能源统计年鉴解读亚化咨询认为，基于BP发布的《2014年世界能源统计报告》相关数据，在2013年，全球能源需求增长低于历史平均水平，反映出全球经济的增长乏力。
中国煤炭消费占据能源消耗的主导地位，在未来20年无法发生根本性改变。
由于过去几年煤炭产能增长较快，且中国政府下决心治理雾霾，调整产业结构，因此煤炭价格将较长时期处于低迷状态。
同时，中国已经是世界最大的CO2排放国，国际气候变化谈判时将遇到更大压力。
可以预计，煤炭清洁高效转化，以及CO2的捕集和利用将更加受到重视。
●截至2013年底，世界石油探明储量为16879亿桶，可以满足全球53.3年的生产需要。
中国石油探明储量为181亿桶（25亿吨），占世界石油探明储量的1.1%，储采比为11.9年。
●截至2013年底，全球天然气探明储量为185.7万亿立方米，可以满足全球55.1年的生产需要。
中国天然气探明储量为3.3万亿立方米（115.6万亿立方米英尺），占世界天然气探明储量1.8%，储采比为28.0年。
●截至2013年底，全球煤炭探明储量为8915亿吨，可以保证全球113年的生产需要。
美国、俄罗斯和中国是世界上煤炭探明储量前三的国家。
2013年底，中国煤炭探明储量为1145亿吨（无烟煤和烟煤为622亿吨，次烟煤和褐煤为523亿吨），占世界煤炭探明储量的12.8%，储采比为31年。
●在中国，煤炭仍然占据一次能源供应的绝对主导地位，份额高达67.5%。
2013年中国煤炭产量为36.8亿吨（18.4亿吨油当量），比2012年增加1.2%，占世界煤炭产量的47.4%。
2013年煤炭消费为19.25亿吨油当量，比2012年增加4.0%，占世界煤炭消费量的50.3%。
●2013年中国CO2排放量为95.24亿吨，比2012年增加4.2%，占世界CO2排放量的27.1%。
中国已经是世界最大的CO2排放国。
2014年6月，BP发布了《2014年世界能源统计报告》。
2017版《BP世界能源统计年鉴》报告 中文版
40万桶/日，为2013年以来的最缓增速。
• 中东石油产量增加170万桶/日，增长主要
升0.3%。北美地区产量的下滑（-210亿 立方米）部分抵消了澳大利亚（190亿立 方米）和伊朗（130亿立方米）的强劲增 长。
• 天然气贸易上升4.8%，这得益于液化天
长。 太阳能虽然在可再生能源中的占比仅为 18%， 却贡献了约占三分之一的增长。
戴德立 集团首席执行官 2017年6月
2017年BP世界能源统计年鉴
1
2016年回顾
2016年，全球一次能源消费保持 低速增长；能源消费转向更低碳 4年增长1%与
2015年增长0.9%后，2016年增长1%。 相比之下，过去十年平均增长为1.8%。
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立方米，较2015年上涨7.1%——这是自 2010年以来的最大增幅。俄罗斯天然气 消费下滑在各国中最为显著（-120亿立方 米）。
• 全球天然气产量仅增加210亿立方米，上
长了14.1%， 低于十年平均水平， 但为有记录 以来最大增幅 （5300万吨油当量） 。
• 可再生能源增长中， 超过一半源于风能的增
2015年和2016年的石油市场消费生产05200515全球总增长2015201600051015202530年变化百万桶日05200515欧佩克成员国出口国进口国非欧佩克产油国2015201600051015202530中国煤炭产量和价格中国煤炭产量增长中国煤炭价格101986年变化199119962001200620112016510152040201301美元吨201401201501秦皇岛动力煤5500大卡千克2016012017016080100120位于英格兰的露天煤矿
中国能源类统计数据
中国能源类统计数据
表1 中国能源与经济主要指标
表2 中国分品种能源产量
表3 中国一次能源消费量及结构
表4 中国2015年分部门、分品种终端能源消费量
表5 中国各种运输方式运量、周转量和交通工具拥有量
表6 中国交通运输能源消费量
表7 “十二五”规划中主要节能减排目标完成情况
表8 2014年各地区万家企业节能目标完成情况汇总表
表9 2015年度中国淘汰落后产能目标任务完成情况表
表10 “十三五”规划的主要节能减排目标
表11 “十三五”各地区能耗总量和强度“双控”目标
表12 “十三五”主要行业和部门节能指标
表13 “十三五”各地区化学需氧量排放总量控制计划
表14 “十三五”各地区氨氮排放总量控制计划
表15 “十三五”各地区二氧化硫排放总量控制计划
表16 “十三五”各地区氮氧化物排放总量控制计划
表17 “十三五”重点地区挥发性有机物排放总量控制计划-全文完-。
关于我国建国以来能源生产总量的时间序列分析
关于我国建国以来能源生产总量的时间序列分析摘要：众所周知，能源对于一个国家有着至关重要的作用。
能源影响着人们的衣食住行，也影响着一个国家的经济发展情况。
所以，对于能源的研究就显得很有必要。
尤其是，随着建国以来，各行各业都在复苏，严重加剧了对能源的需求。
所以，选择自1949到2008年这59年的能源生产总量进行分析。
利用sas软件对这组数据进行整理，建模分析。
并根据所建模型进行预测。
关键词：能源生产总量时间序列分析 SAS软件建国以来，我国各产业百废待兴，加剧了对能源的大量需求。
随着经济的迅猛发展，人们的生活质量得到大幅度提高，各种新兴产业也大量出现，加剧对能源的消耗。
所以，导致能源出现濒危局面。
为了合理预测未来能源的发展趋势，所以利用sas软件进行时间序列分析，根据预测模型，提出宝贵意见。
一，1949至2008年能源生产总量数据来源表一：中国能源生产总量单位：万吨标准煤二，数据分析结果（一）运用sas软件对原始数据做时序图。
如图一图一：原始数据时序图根据图一可以明显看出能源总产量呈现出递增趋势，所以选择对原始数据进行一阶差分（二）一阶差分后的时序图，图二图二：一阶差分后的时序图由图二可以看出，一阶差分后的时序图具有平稳性。
但由于时序图的判断可能具有主观主义色彩，会产生判别误差，所以进行自相关，偏自相关检验。
（三）自相关，偏自相关检验图三 ：自相关图图四：偏自相关图由图三看出自相关图从2阶开始在两倍的标准差范围内波动，且二阶截尾。
由图四可以看出，偏自相关图从二阶开始在两倍的标准差范围内波动，且一阶截尾。
所以可以初步认为一阶差分后的序列有很强的短期相关性，并且平稳。
初步推断可以建立ARIMA(2，1,1))模型。
(四）对平稳的一阶差分序列进行白噪声检验 运用SAS 软件，输出结果如表二：表二： 1阶差分后序列白噪声检验由表二知，在检验的显著性水平取0.005时，由于延迟6阶的2χ检验统计量的P 值001.0<，所以该差分后不能视为白噪声序列，即差分后序列还蕴藏着不容忽视的相关信息可供提取。