Unit4 Certainty and Uncertainty确定与不确定
确定型决策、不确定型决策、风险型决策的比较分析
确定型决策、不确定型决策、风险型决策的比较分析叶伟内容摘要：决策按照状态空间分类，可分为确定型决策、不确定型决策和风险型决策三类。
本文就这三种决策的基本概念、使用原则、适用范围和优缺点等几个方面进行了综合的比较分析。
关键词：确定型决策不确定型决策风险型决策Abstract:According to the state space, the decision-making may be divided into decision making under certainty , decision making under uncertainty and decision making under risk. This article has carried on the comparative analysis of their basic concept, their use principle, their applicable scope and their good and bad points and so on.Keywords:Decision-making under certainty Decision-making under uncertainty Decision-making under risk1．引言决策是理性人普遍从事的一种活动，也是极为重要的制胜手段。
它的核心是，对未来活动的多个目标及用途做出合理的选择，以寻求最满意的行动方案。
决策具有以下特点：①面对新问题和新任务做出科学决定，属于创造性的管理活动；②必须对实际行为有直接的指导作用；③具有多因素、多目标、不要确定性与方案的多样性，以及决策影响的时效性和一次性。
现代决策理论的主要特点在于，以概率和数理统计为基础，以统计判定理论和高等数学为工具，广泛地收集和处理信号，考虑人的心理和外在环境、市场等应变因素，知道人们把各类工程技术因素与经济效益统一起来做定量分析，并以电子计算机为辅助手段，研究决策的性质和规律、模型与方法，以寻求整体的最优解或满意解。
不确定中的确定性作文
不确定中的确定性作文英文回答：Uncertainty in certainty is a fascinating concept that can be observed in various aspects of life. It refers to situations where there is a level of doubt or ambiguity, but at the same time, there is a sense of inevitability or predictability. This paradoxical phenomenon can be seen in relationships, career choices, and even in everyday decision-making.In relationships, uncertainty in certainty often arises when we are in a committed partnership. While we may feel secure and confident in our relationship, there is always a degree of uncertainty about the future. We may wonder if our partner will remain faithful, if our love will stand the test of time, or if we will continue to grow together. Despite these doubts, we still have a sense of certainty in the love and connection we share. It's like walking on a tightrope, knowing that there is a risk of falling, buthaving faith in our ability to maintain balance.Career choices also exhibit uncertainty in certainty. When deciding on a career path, we may have doubts about whether we have made the right choice. We may question if we will be successful, if we will find fulfillment, or if we will have job security. However, even in the face of these uncertainties, we have a sense of certainty in our skills, passions, and ambitions. We trust that our hard work and dedication will lead us to a successful and fulfilling career. It's like taking a leap of faith, knowing that there may be obstacles along the way, but believing in our ability to overcome them.Everyday decision-making is another area where uncertainty in certainty can be observed. We are constantly faced with choices, big and small, that have uncertain outcomes. For example, deciding what to have for dinner can seem trivial, but there is always a level of uncertainty about whether we will enjoy the meal or if it will meet our expectations. However, we have a sense of certainty in our preferences, tastes, and experiences. We trust that ourpast experiences and knowledge will guide us in making the right choice. It's like following our gut instincts, knowing that they have served us well in the past.中文回答：确定性中的不确定性是一个非常有趣的概念，在生活的各个方面都能观察到。
交际英语 Certain and Uncertain 确定和不确定
4. Agree and Disagree
1) Agree with it Ok! Sure! Certainly!
I think you're right. I guess. / I suppose so . You're absolutely right. I totally agree. I agree entirely. ( I think so )
3) Showing uncertain I'm not sure. I couldn't say.
Who knows? Could be / Might be. I guess.
Nothing is set yet. It's not clear. It's up in the air. It's hard to say / tell.
对肯定性的说法表示同意时 —He works too hard. . —Yes,he does. , . —That′s Ann! ! —Oh,so it is. , . —There may be a strike. strike. —Yes,there may. , . —Living in London will be expensive. . — (Yes,) of course it will. .
对肯定的说法表示不同意时 —There is plenty of time. . —No,there isn′t. , . —Prices are coming down. . —Oh no,they aren′t. , . —Ann′ll lend it to you. . —Oh no,she won′t. , . —Peter gets up too late. . —No, he doesn′t. , .
《确定性和不确定性》课件
一定摸到蓝球。 可能摸到蓝球。 不可能摸到蓝球。 不可能摸到黄球。
有蓝球和红球，没有黄球
（教材第47页第3题）
4. 从盒子里摸出一个球，结果会是什么？连一连。
一定摸到黄球。 可能摸到黄球。 可能摸到红球。 不可能摸到红球。
一定摸到蓝球。 可能摸到蓝球。 不可能摸到蓝球。 不可能摸到黄球。
有黄球，没有蓝球和红球
全是红棋子
红、黄、绿、蓝四种颜色的棋子
左边盒子里肯定能摸出红棋子
（教材第45页“做一做”）
（2）哪个盒子里可能摸出绿棋子？
全是红棋子
红、黄、绿、蓝四种颜色的棋子
右边盒子里可能摸出绿棋子
（3）哪个盒子里不可能摸出绿棋子？
全是红棋子
红、黄、绿、蓝四种颜色的棋子
左边盒子里不可能摸出绿棋子
2. 转动指针，说一说指针可能停在哪种颜色的区域上。
4. 从盒子里摸出一个球，结果会是什么？连一连。
一定摸到黄球。 可能摸到黄球。 可能摸到红球。 不可能摸到红球。
一定摸到蓝球。 可能摸到蓝球。 不可能摸到蓝球。 不可能摸到黄球。
有蓝球，没有黄球和红球
4. 从盒子里摸出一个球，结果会是什么？连一连。
一定摸到黄球。 可能摸到黄球。 可能摸到红球。 不可能摸到红球。
小丽 可能 唱歌和朗诵
定 性
小丽 不跳可舞能和朗诵跳舞 不可能
小红
确 定 性
一定
唱歌
在一定条件下，一些事件的结果是可以
预知的，具有确定性确，定的事件 一用定
“ 不可”能或“
”来描述事件的
结果。
一些事件的结果是不可预知的，具有 不确定性，不确定的事件用“可能” 来描述事件的结果。
课堂练习
八年级英语下册Lesson32教材内容详解冀教版
Lesson 32: Unit Review单元复习◆课文英汉对照Ⅰ. Building Your Vocabulary 增强你的词汇A．Fill in each blank with the proper word or phrase from the list. Use the correct form..从方框中选择出适合的词或短语并用正确形式填空。
discover 发现taste 品尝examine 测试hide 隐藏prove证明light点燃1. The experiment _________that the force of the air can keep the water in the jar。
这个试验_________空气的力量能托住瓶子里的水。
2. The teacher will_________ the class on everything they have learned this term..老师将_________全班同学关于他们本学期学过的所有知识。
3. We have _________ that cardboard can hold the water in.我们已经_________卡片能把水托在里面。
4. These Western foods _________ great. 这些西餐__________很好。
5. On Easter, Danny _________ the colored eggs behind the trees.在复活节，丹尼_________彩蛋在树后。
6. I need some matches to _________ the candle.答案链接：1.proves2.examine3.discovered4.taste5.hid6.light1. Look at something or someone carefully:很认真的看某人某物：_________2. Show or tell what something means:展示或告诉某事物的意思：_________3. Put different things together:把不同的东西放在一起：_________4. A round dish:一个圆的盘子：_________答案链接：1.observe2.explain3.mix4.hide5.plate6.discoverC. Fill in the blank with the proper word. The first letter is given.用合适的单词填空，首字母已给出。
口语 确定和不确定
每天口语半小时 Certainty and uncertainty确定和不确定certain：确定的，形容词，certanity：确定，名词，uncertain和uncertainty也是一样的情况。
因为标题里都是名词。
1.Are you certain about that? 你对于那个确定吗？2.Were you quite sure about your success? 你很确定你成功了吗？用的were you，过去式，因为这个success也是过去的事情。
quite=very：很。
3.Really?4.I suppose you have no doubt about that. 我想你对那个毫不怀疑。
suppose：猜想，还有两种用法：1. Suppose you can fly, what will you do? 假设你会飞，你会做什么？2. You are supposed to stay at home.你应该呆在家里的。
be supposed to do应该做某事。
5.I've no doubt of your ability. 我不怀疑你的能力。
I’ve= I have我有，no+名词：没有某物，doubt：怀疑（动词/名词）, doubt of your ability对你的能力的怀疑。
6.I bet they've got lost. 我敢打赌他们迷路了。
bet打赌。
They have got lost是个完成时，get lost=be lost迷路。
7.I'm quite convinced things will improve. 我非常确定事情会更好的。
convince：说服，Convince me! 来说服我。
improve改善，I will improve my life.我会改善我的生活。
8.It's hard to tell. 难说。
自适应蒙特卡洛法评定全站仪测距不确定度
自适应蒙特卡洛法评定全站仪测距不确定度仇跃鑫1，2，朱进1，2，王瑛辉1，2*（1.浙江省计量科学研究院，浙江杭州 310018；2.浙江省数字精密测量技术研究重点实验室，浙江杭州310018）摘要：全站仪测距精度的校准需要在标准基线场上进行，由于野外环境不可控和气象条件波动剧烈，因此判断全站仪的测量结果的可靠程度具有重要意义。
为了解决全站仪测距不确定度评定模型的非线性和输入量强相关等问题，本文首先采用了自适应蒙特卡洛法进行不确定度评定，然后与GUM的不确定度评定结果进行对比，当测距距离为1 176 m时，自适应蒙特卡洛法评定的不确定度结果为2.2 mm，GUM为2.6 mm，结果显示两种不确定度评定方法的测量结果均在合理预期之内，且自适应蒙特卡洛法评定的不确定度置信区间更窄。
自适应蒙特卡洛法结合了大量数据样本和自适应优化仿真次数的优势，不仅对全站仪测距过程中的各项误差源引入的不确定度分量评估更为全面，而且在保证了全站仪测距不确定度评定结果准确的同时，相比于蒙特卡洛法节约了70%的样本数量。
关键词：计量学；自适应蒙特卡洛法；全站仪；测量不确定度中图分类号：TB921；TH711 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1674-5795（2023）05-0104-08Evaluation of uncertainty of distance measurement by total station usingadaptive Monte Carlo methodQIU Yuexin1，2, ZHU Jin1，2, WANG Yinghui1，2*(1.Zhejiang Institute of Metrology, Hangzhou 310018, China；2.Key Laboratory of Digital Precision Measurement Technology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310018, China)Abstract: The calibration of total station distance measurement accuracy needs to be carried out on a standard baseline field, and it is of great significance to judge the reliability of the measurement results of the total station due to the uncontrollable field environment and the drastic fluctuation of meteorological conditions. In order to solve the problems of nonlinearity and strong correlation of inputs of the total station distance measurement uncertainty evaluation model, this paper firstly adopts the adaptive Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty, and then compares the uncertainty evaluation results with those of the GUM. When the ranging distance is 1 176 m, the un⁃certainty evaluation results of the adaptive Monte Carlo method is 2.2 mm, and the GUM is 2.6 mm. The results show that the measurement results of both uncertainty assessment methods are within reasonable expectations, and the uncertainty confidence interval of the adaptive Monte Carlo method is narrower. The adaptive Monte Carlo method combines the advantages of a large number of data samples and adaptive optimization of the simulation doi：10.11823/j.issn.1674-5795.2023.05.15收稿日期：2023-04-01；修回日期：2023-05-12基金项目：2022年度浙江省科技厅“尖兵”“领雁”研发攻关计划项目（2022C01139）引用格式：仇跃鑫，朱进，王瑛辉.自适应蒙特卡洛法评定全站仪测距不确定度［J］.计测技术，2023，43（5）：104-111.Citation：QIU Y X，ZHU J，WANG Y H.Evaluation of uncertainty of distance measurement by total station using adaptive Monte Carlo method［J］.Metrology & Measurement Technology，2023，43（5）：104-111.times, which not only provides a more comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty components introduced by vari⁃ous error sources in the process of total station distance measurement, but also saves 70% of samples compared with the Monte Carlo method, while guaranteeing the accuracy of the uncertainty assessment results of the total station distance measurement.Key words: metrology; adaptive Monte Carlo method; total station; measurement uncertainty0 引言全站仪被广泛应用于精密测量、机械制造和大地测量领域，本质是由一个经纬仪和一个电子测距仪共同组成，这二者的精度直接决定了全站仪的精度。
不确定性与标准答案的作文
不确定性与标准答案的作文英文回答：In a world where certainty is often elusive,uncertainty reigns supreme. It is a realm where the boundaries of knowledge blur, and the familiar gives way to the unknown. Uncertainty can both exhilarate and confound us, leaving us questioning our assumptions and seeking solace in the familiar.Yet, in the face of uncertainty, we often cling to the allure of standard answers. These are the neatly packaged solutions that promise to dispel our doubts and provide a sense of closure. Standard answers can be comforting intheir simplicity, but they also have the potential tostifle our critical thinking and limit our ability to adapt.In the pursuit of certainty, we may overlook the valueof uncertainty. Uncertainty can be a catalyst for growth, innovation, and resilience. It forces us to confront ourassumptions, explore new possibilities, and embrace the unknown. By embracing uncertainty, we open ourselves up toa world of possibilities that may have otherwise remained hidden.Standard answers, on the other hand, can lull us into a false sense of security. They may provide temporary comfort, but they can also lead us down a path of complacency and missed opportunities. By relying too heavily on standard answers, we limit our ability to think critically, adapt to change, and navigate the complexities of the world around us.In a world characterized by uncertainty, the pursuit of standard answers may be a futile endeavor. True certainty may never be fully attainable, but by embracing uncertainty, we can unlock our potential, foster innovation, and live more fulfilling lives.中文回答：在不确定的世界中，不确定性占据了重要地位。
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Words to learn.
Check up the students’ memory by translating and spelling. ( 记住单词和词性)。 four ;why; 这样的，那样的； 赶紧，急忙；匆忙的； 赶紧，快点；机场；plane； 到达；half; 过（指时间） on ; 准时； 原谅；yourself; 完成；fine； no; 担忧； maybe; could; now; already； 会议； 开始； eight；必须； 星期一；back; 乘，用（交通工具）； he 的宾格及所有格； 下雨；hard; whether; in ; 及时； That’s=________; o’clock=_______; won’t=________.
Patterns.(Certainty)
你说的有把握吗？ 你能肯定？ 真的？ 当真？ 我很清楚。
我绝对有把握。
我很清楚。 毫无疑问。
毫无疑问。 Nhomakorabea你说的有把握吗？ 那是毫无疑问的。 我绝对有把握。
那是毫无疑问的。 你能肯定这件事是 真的吗？
Sentence Patterns.(Uncertainty)
Homework :
Recite some sentence patterns . Preview Unit5.
Are you sure about what you said? 你说的有把握吗？ I am quite sure. 我绝对有把握。 I know it very well. 我很清楚。 I've no doubt. 毫无疑问。 It’s clear that … There is no doubt about that. 那是毫无疑问的。
A. Really. B. Yes. We’re quite sure. C. No, I’m not certain. D. No, I can’t be sure .Maybe I have no time then. E. No, I’m not too sure of it.
Listening Practice
Uncertainty（不确定）.
1._____________（我不能肯定）that it is the best one. 2.______________ of that.( 对此我不敢肯定) 3.______________(我不能肯定)whether/ if she can come. 4._________( 或许) you are right. 5.It’s __________.( 这很难说) 6.___________( 我怀疑) whether/ if he’ll come. 7.__________.( 我不知道。) 8.__________我不能决定 when to start.
Sentence Patterns.
Certainty: 我肯定。 我能肯定 我肯定。
我很肯定。 肯定是的。 一定是这样。 一定。
你能肯定？ 真的？ 当真？ 你能肯定这件事是 真的吗？
我有把握。
你能肯定吗？
你能肯定？
我敢打赌。 I
Sentence Patterns. (Certainty)
I'm not sure for it. 我不能肯定。 I can't be certain. 我不能肯定。 I can't be sure. 我不能肯定。 I can't decide.
我不能决定。 Perhaps/ Maybe 也许吧。 It’s hard to say. 这很难说。 I can't tell. 我不大肯定。 I can't say for certain.
我很肯定。 It surely is. 肯定是的。 You bet it is. 一定是这样。 It must be. 一定。 Are you sure? 你能肯定吗？ You're sure? 你能肯定？ Are you certain?
你能肯定？ Really? 真的？ Are you serious? 当真？ Can you really be sure this is true? 你能肯定这件事是 真的吗？
Listen to tape and judge T or F . 1. A: Can you get there on time ? B: I’m sure I can. A. True B. False 2. A: Can you finish the work today? B: No, I’m not sure. A .True B. False 3. A: Are you sure he can speak English? B: Yes, I’m sure. A. True B. False 4. A: Are you sure they won’t be late for the meeting? B: No, I’m not sure. . A. True B. False
Sentence Patterns.
Certainty: I'm sure. 我肯定。 I'm sure about it. 我能肯定 I'm certain. 我肯定。 I'm quite sure. 我有把握。 I bet. 我敢打赌。 I'll bet on it.
我不敢肯定。 I'm not too sure of it. 我对此不敢保证。 I have no idea. 不知道
Sentence Patterns.(Uncertainty)
我不能肯定。 我不能肯定。 我不能肯定。 我不能决定。
也许吧。 这很难说。 我不大肯定。 我不敢肯定。
III. Match.
Are you certain about that? Are you sure of your success? Really? Can you come to my birthday party? Can you really be sure he will not be late for school.
Unit4 Certainty and Uncertainty
Teaching Aims and Importance
1.Learn some words & expressions by heart. 2.Master Some sentence patterns about certainty &uncertainty. 3.The use of sentence patterns about certainty and uncertainty. 4.Improve the students’ listenjing and speaking ability.
你说的有把握吗？ I am quite sure. 我绝对有把握。 I know it very well. 我很清楚。 I've no doubt. 毫无疑问。 It’s clear that … There is no doubt about that. 那是毫无疑问的。
II. Complete the following dialogues :
Dialogue 1. A: he has come back? 你能肯定他已经回来了吗？ B: I bet. Because I saw him yesterday morning from the window. 是的。因为我昨天从窗子里看见他了。 A:_________ he is in the office now? 你认为他现在在办公室吗？ B: No, of it. 这个不倒不敢肯定。
Fill the Blanks :
Dialogue 2. A:Are you about the time of the movie? 你能肯定电影的放映时间吗？ B:Yes.I’m quite sure. 是的，绝对肯定。 A:Then how much is the ticket? 那你知道电影票的价格吗？ B: No._____________. 不知道。
我对此不敢保证。
不知道
Practice.
I. Fill in the blanks Certainty.(肯定) 1. .___________(我不怀疑 ) of your ability. 2. ____________( 我打赌) they've got lost. 3.____________( 我有把握) that things will improve. 4.__________. 一定是这样。 5.___________. 我敢说。
Are you certain? 你能肯定？ Really? 真的？ Are you serious? 当真？ Can you really be sure this is true? 你能肯定这件事是 真的吗？ Are you sure about what you said?