股票外汇技术分析英文版11
股票外汇技术分析英文版ppt (47)
Dr. John F. Clayburg
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Commodity Trading Advisor Disclosure:
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"There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".
Today's Presentation
Remember that technical analysis is not a world of absolute certainty…. But a world of probabilities and possibilities.
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"There is a risk of loss in trading. It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results".
股票外汇技术分析英文版
Each pip is worth $10, 275 pips x $10 = $2,750 profit
Examples of FOREX Sell Trade
If you think that the Euro will fall relative to the U.S. Dollar you would sell one lot of the EURUSD currency pair.
The EURUSD is trading at 1.1987 when you buy it. The EURUSD is trading at 1.2262 when you sell it.
You bought at 1.1987 and sold at 1.2262 for a profit of .0275 or 275 pips.
Basic of FOREX Pairs
Currencies are quoted in pairs, such as EURUSD or USDJPY. The first listed currency is called the base currency, while the second currency is called the counter or quote currency.
An example of how currency pairs trade is if a trader believes the Bank of Japan will intervene to cause a decrease in the Yen against the US Dollar, then the trader would buy USDJPY (buy the US Dollar/sell the Yen). However, if the trader believes that Japanese investors are losing faith in the United States' economy and are pulling money out of the US into Japan, then the trader would sell USDJPY (sell the US Dollar/buy the Yen).
股票外汇技术分析英文版(46)
Markets • Dirty Work Early
* Based on annual close; Prior to 1886 based on Cowles and other indices; 12 Mixed Stocks, 10 Rails, 2 Industrials 1886-1889; 20 Mixed Stocks, 18 Rails, 2 Industrials 1890-1896; Railroad average 1897 (First industrial average published May 26, 1896)
LinkedIn • Brand New Revamped Site & e-Delivery • ETF Lab • Almanac Investor Book Series
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Almanac Investing Philosophy
• Those who study market history are bound to profit from it.
(16.7%) • Plus Oct Lows in 1962,
1974, 1978, 1998 • 9 Dec Pre-Elect Highs
• Only 5 Bottoms in Pre- or Election
• 8 Tops • Midterm Worst for
Democrats • Dems Reclaim After
Econ Duress
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Bottom Pickers Paradise
• Often During Crisis • 2009 Paid Right Away • May Pay Again in 2010 • Unmet Promises • 9 of 14 Bears Since 1961
股票外汇技术分析英文版ppt (12)
Adjusted BV = BV – (NPV – Acc. Provision)
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Price multiples: PS multiple
No negative sales Sales is less likely to be manipulated.
Po/So =(Eo/So)(1-b)(1+g)/(r-g)
Cash flows
Growth rate
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Price multiples
Price Multiples
Link to competitors, industry, past Link to company’s fundamentals – discount cash flows
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Price multiples: PE multiple
Price multiples: PBV multiple
Book Value is unlikely to be negative. Compared to earnings, book Value is less manipulated. PBV = (ROE-g)/(r-g)
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Price multiples: P adj BV multiple
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Analysis:
Top down Bottom up Top down and bottom up
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Top down / Bottom up
Top down:
Economy -> industry -> firm -> stock Globalization – impact. Firm -> industry -> economy Economy <-> industry <-> firm <-> stock
master technical analysis
master technical analysis技术分析是一种用于预测市场走势的方法，它基于市场数据，如价格、交易量等，来评估市场的状况和潜力。
通过掌握技术分析，投资者可以更好地理解市场行为，制定出更加有效的投资策略。
在本文中，我们将深入探讨技术分析的基础、方法、常见指标以及如何在实际交易中使用它们。
一、技术分析基础技术分析的核心理念是市场行为决定价格。
它认为，通过观察市场行为，我们可以了解市场的供需关系，从而预测市场的走势。
技术分析师通过研究历史价格数据，寻找市场趋势的迹象和信号。
二、技术分析方法1. 图表分析：图表是技术分析的基本工具，包括K线图、棒形图、折线图等。
通过观察图表上的价格走势，可以识别市场趋势、支撑位和阻力位。
2. 交易量分析：交易量是技术分析的重要组成部分，它反映了市场参与者的信心和热度。
分析师通过分析交易量的变化，可以了解市场的动态和趋势。
3. 相对强度指数：相对强度指数是一种测量股票相对表现的技术指标，它根据市场中的特定股票价格变化来衡量其相对强弱程度。
三、常见技术指标1. 移动平均线（MA）：移动平均线是用于衡量股价趋势的技术指标，它根据一段时间内的收盘价计算得出。
2. 相对强弱指数（RSI）：RSI用于测量一只股票的超买和超卖情况，它根据股票价格的涨跌计算出一个相对强弱指数值。
3. 随机指标（KDJ）：KDJ是一种用于判断股票超买超卖的技术指标，它结合了股票价格的变动和交易量的变化来计算出一个指标值。
四、实际交易中的应用在掌握技术分析方法和常见指标后，投资者可以将其应用于实际交易中。
以下是一些建议：1. 制定明确的交易计划：在进行交易前，投资者应该明确自己的交易目标、止损点、交易频率和风险承受能力。
2. 保持冷静：在交易过程中，投资者应该保持冷静，不要被市场情绪影响，避免盲目跟风。
3. 定期评估交易结果：投资者应该定期评估自己的交易结果，分析交易策略的有效性，并根据市场变化及时调整策略。
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外汇技术分析
外汇技术分析外汇技术分析是一种研究外汇市场走势的方法，通过使用历史价格和交易量数据，结合各种技术指标和图表模式，帮助交易者预测未来价格走势，并做出相应的交易决策。
外汇技术分析主要包括趋势分析、形态分析和指标分析三个方面。
趋势分析是最常用的技术分析方法之一。
市场价格有一定的趋势性，通常分为上涨趋势、下跌趋势和横盘震荡。
交易者可以通过观察价格走势线来判断市场趋势，选择合适的交易策略。
在趋势分析中常用的工具有趋势线、移动平均线和趋势指标等。
形态分析是通过观察价格图形模式来判断市场的未来走势。
常见的价格图形模式有头肩顶、头肩底、双顶和双底等。
这些图形模式通常出现在市场价格即将反转的时候，交易者可以通过识别这些形态来进行交易决策。
指标分析是通过计算和绘制技术指标来辅助分析市场价格走势。
常见的技术指标有移动平均线、相对强弱指标、随机指标和MACD等。
这些指标可以帮助交易者判断市场的超买超卖情况、价格的方向和力度等，从而制定合理的交易策略。
在实际应用中，外汇技术分析需要综合运用趋势分析、形态分析和指标分析等方法，结合当前市场的经济环境和资讯消息来制定交易策略。
同时，交易者需要及时更新数据和图表，以及不断学习和积累经验，提高自己的技术分析水平。
需要注意的是，外汇技术分析虽然能够辅助交易决策，但并不能100%准确地预测市场走势。
市场受多种因素的影响，包括经济政策、货币政策、国际贸易等，因此价格变动具有不确定性。
交易者在使用技术分析方法时，还应该结合基本面分析和风险管理等因素综合考虑，做出相对准确的交易决策。
外汇技术分析是一项复杂而又关键的交易工具。
通过对市场数据和图表模式进行分析，交易者能够更好地了解市场走势，并据此做出决策。
然而，技术分析并非一劳永逸的解决方案，它需要不断学习和实践才能获得更好的结果。
首先，趋势分析是技术分析的基础。
趋势分析通过观察市场价格的走势，识别出市场的整体趋势。
对于交易者来说，掌握趋势是至关重要的，因为大多数交易策略都是基于趋势的方向。
外汇技术指标中英对照
外汇技术指标中英对照外汇技术指标中英对照绝对幅度指标(ABSOLUTE BREADTH INDEX)累积/派发线(ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION LINE)累积摆动指标(ACCUMULATION SWING INDEX)上涨/下跌线(ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE)上涨/下跌比率(ADVANCE/DECLINE RATIO)上涨-下跌值(ADVANCING-DECLINING ISSUES)价格上涨、价格下跌和价格不变的证券成交量(ADVANCING，DECLINING，UNCHANGED VOLUME)安德鲁斯干草叉(ANDREWS S PITCHFORK)阿木思指标(ARMS INDEX(TRIN))阿隆指标(AROON)平均真实区域(AVERAGE TRUE RANGE)布林带(BOLLINGER BANDS)宽度突破(BREADTH THRUST)牛/熊比率(BULL/BEAR RATIO)日本烛形图(又称蜡烛图)(CANDLESTICKS，JAPANESE)肯思里姆(CANSLIM)蔡金货币流量(CHAIKIN MONEY FLOW)蔡金摆动指标(CHAIKIN OSCILLATOR)钱德动量摆动指标(CHANDE MOMENTUM OSCILLATOR) 商品通道指标(COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX)商品选择指标(COMMODITY SELECTION INDEX)相关分析(CORRELATION ANALYSIS)累积成交量指标(CUMULATIVE VOLUME INDEX)周期(CYCLES)需求指标(DEMAND INDEX)非趋势价格摆动指标(DETRENDED PRICE OSCILLATOR) 动向指标(DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT)双指数移动平均线(DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE)道氏理论(DOW THEORY)动态动量指标(DYNAMIC MOMENTUM INDEX)轻松移动指标(EASE OF MOVEMENT)有效市场理论(EFFICIENT MARKET THEORY)爱略特波浪理论(ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY)轨道(交易带)(ENVELOPES(TRADING BANDS))等成交量(EQUIVOLUME)斐波纳契研究(FIBONACCI STUDIES)预测摆动指标(FORECAST OSCILLATOR)百分之四模型(FOUR PERCENT MODEL)傅立叶转换(FOURIER TRANSFORM)基本分析(FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS)江恩角(GANN ANGLES)哈里克获利指标(HERRICK PAYOFF INDEX)惯性指标(INERTIA)利率(INTEREST RATES)日内动量指标(INTRADAY MOMENTUM INDEX)卡吉图(KAGI)克林格成交量摆动指标(KLINGER OSCILLATOR)大宗交易比率(LARGE BLOCK RATIO)线性回归指标(LINEAR REGRESSION INDICATOR)线性回归斜率指标(LINEAR REGRESSION SLOPE)线性回归趋势线(LINEAR REGRESSION TRENDLINES) 市场便利指标(MARKET FACILITATION INDEX)质量指标(MASS INDEX)迈克勒兰摆动指标(McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR)迈克勒兰和指标(McCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX)中间价格指标(MEDIAN PRICE)会员空头比率指标(MEMBER SHORT RATIO)山形正弦波指标(MESA SINE WAVE)动量指标(MOMENTUM)货币流量指标(MONEY FLOW INDEX)平滑异同平均指标(MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE) 移动平均指标(MOVING AVERAGES)负量指标(NEGATIVE VOLUME INDEX)新高-新低累积指标(NEW HIGHS-LOWS CUMULATIVE) 新高/新低比率(NEW HIGHS/LOWS RATIO)新高-新低指标(NEW HIGHS-NEW LOWS)零股平衡指标(ODD LOT BALANCE INDEX)零股买入/卖出指标(ODD LOT PURCHASES/SALES)零股卖空比率(ODD LOT SHORT RATIO)欧得思概率锥形曲线(ODDS PROBABILITY CONES)平衡交易量(ON BALANCE VOLUME)未平仓合约(OPEN INTEREST)公开-10交易指标(OPEN-10 TRIN)期权分析(OPTION ANALYSIS)超买/超卖指标(OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD)抛物线状的止损与反转(PARABOLIC SAR)形态(PATTERNS)百分比回落(PERCENT RETRACEMENT)表现指标(PERFORMANCE)点值图(POINT AND FIGURE)极化分形效率指标(POLARIZED FRACTAL EFFICIENCY) 正量指标(POSITIVE VOLUME INDEX)价量趋势指标(PRICE AND VOLUME TREND)价格通道(PRICE CHANNEL)价格摆动指标(PRICE OSCILLATOR)价格的变动率指标(PRICE RATE-OF-CHANGE)投射带(PROJECTION BANDS)投射摆动指标(PROJECTION OSCILLATOR)公众空头比率(PUBLIC SHORT RATIO)看跌/看涨比率(PUTS/CALLS RATIO)Q棒指标(QSTICK)四等分线(QUADRANT LINES)r的平方指标(R-SQUARED)拉弗回归通道(RAFF REGRESSION CHANNEL)随机行走指标(RANDOM WALK INDEX)区域指标(RANGE INDICATOR)矩形(RECTANGLE)相对动量指标(RELATIVE MOMENTUM INDEX)比较相对强弱指标(RELATIVE STRENGTH，COMPARATIVE) 相对强弱指标(RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX)相对波动性指标(RELATIVE VOLATILITY INDEX)忍蔻图(RENKO)速度阻力线(SPEED RESISTANCE LINES)价差(SPREADS)标准离差(STANDARD DEVIATION)标准离差通道(STANDARD DEVIATION CHANNEL)标准误差(STANDARD ERROR)标准误差带(STANDARD ERROR BANDS)标准误差通道(STANDARD ERROR CHANNEL)斯蒂克斯(STIX)随机动量指标(STOCHASTIC MOMENTUM INDEX)随机摆动指标(STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR)摆动指标(SWING INDEX)三重指数移动平均(TEMA)三线突破(THREE LINE BREAK)时间系列预测(TIME SERIES FORECAST)泰龙水平线(TIRONE LEVELS)总卖空比率(TOTAL SHORT RATIO)交易量指标(TRADE VOLUME INDEX)趋势线(TRENDLINES)契克斯(TRIX)典型价格(TYPICAL PRICE)终极摆动指标(ULTIMATE OSCILLATOR)上涨/下跌量比(UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE RATIO)上涨/下跌量指标(UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE VOLUME)垂直水平过滤指标(VERTICAL HORIZONTAL FILTER)蔡金波动性指标(VOLATILITY，CHAIKIN S)成交量指标(VOLUME)成交量摆动指标(VOLUME OSCILLATOR)成交量变动率(VOLUME RATE-OF-CHANGE)加权收盘价(WEIGHTED CLOSE)威尔德平滑(WILDER S SMOOTHING)威廉姆斯累积/派发指标(WILLIAMS S ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION)威廉姆斯%R(WILLIAMS S %R)之字形指标(ZIG ZAG)。
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Connect two consecutive highs to get the upper channel
A “breakout” indicates a new pattern forming
Bullish channels tend to have upward breakouts
Find the trend by connecting at least two highs
Two lows complete the triangle “Breakout” occurs at the apex, usually with increasing volume
Ascending triangles usually have upward breakouts
The “Run”: A breakout from the lead in trend
What pattern do you see?
“Run” “Bump”
Fibonacci, one of the greatest mathematicians of all time discovered a sequence of numbers which are now used across many disciplines
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Trade Balance Approach Price Level Approach
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Interest Rate Approach
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Monetary Approach
Technical analysis is not concerned with the causes of market movements. Instead, technical analysis focuses on the movements themselves. Is there information in past price movements that can be used to predict future movements?
The “Bump”: Increase in trend by more than 50%
Two lows identify the “lead in” trend
The head is the first advance past the left shoulder
The left shoulder is the first high above the current trend
Can you find the Pattern?
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ……
Each number in the Fibonacci sequence is the sum of the previous two 1+ 1 = 2 1+2=3 2 + 3 = 5 ….
offspring are born each month
➢The rabbits never die
Now
1 Month
2 Months
3 Months
One Pair (Y)
One Pair (M)
Two Pair (M, Y)
Three Pairs (M, M, Y)
Y = Young, M = Mature
Chart analysis begins with a time series plot of anurly, daily, weekly, etc.
Higher frequency data will be more detailed, but noisier
The right shoulder is the first high following the reversal
Two lows identify the “lead in” trend The neckline connects the two shoulders and indicates lower support
Chart Analysis Quantitative Methods
The forecasting equation for a technical analysis would be something like this
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$/Euro: Weekly data over 3 years
Suppose that you begin with a pair of rabbits:
➢Rabbits take one month to mature. Once mature, they can breed
offspring
➢Offspring come in pairs (one male and one female). A pair of
These numbers seem to appear a lot in nature…
A chartist looks for patterns in the to identify resistance (upper bounds) and support levels (lower bounds)
Old Support level
New Support level
A parallel line through a recent low becomes the lower support
FIN 40500: International Finance
Beyond the Fundamentals; Technical Analysis
Fundamental analysis focuses on economic/financial theory and various economic indicators to explain market movements