Corporate Financial Models and Long-Term Planning
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Corporate Finance2014-1 (公司金融课件)
2750%50%30% DebtDeEbtquity
5705% Equity
If how you slice the pie affects the size of the pie, then the capital structure decision matters.
Hypothetical Organization Chart
Payoff to shareholders
$F If the value of the firm is more than
Payoff to debt holders $F, the shareholder’s claim is:
$F Value of the firm (X)
Max[0,$X – $F] = $X – $F and the debt holder’s claim is:
3. How much short-term cash flow does a company need to pay its bills?
The Balance-Sheet Model of the Firm
Total Value of Assets:
Total Firm Value to Investors:
The Balance-Sheet Model of the Firm
The Capital Structure Decision
Current Assets
Fixed Assets 1 Tangible
How can the firm raise the money for the required investments?
Net Working Capital
Current Liabilities
cfa一级十科笔记
cfa一级十科笔记CFA一级考试是金融行业中非常重要的职业资格认证，涵盖了广泛的金融知识领域。
下面是关于CFA一级考试十科的笔记，以帮助你更好地准备考试。
1. 伦理与专业标准（Ethics and Professional Standards）：了解职业道德和行业规范的重要性。
理解与客户、公司和市场参与者之间的关系。
掌握投资专业人士应遵循的道德准则。
2. 数量方法（Quantitative Methods）：熟悉基本的数学和统计概念。
掌握概率论和假设检验的基本原理。
理解回归分析和时间序列分析的基本概念。
3. 经济学（Economics）：理解宏观经济和微观经济的基本原理。
掌握货币政策、财政政策和国际贸易的影响。
理解经济指标和金融市场之间的关系。
4. 金融报表分析（Financial Reporting and Analysis）：理解财务报表的结构和内容。
掌握财务比率分析和财务报表的解读。
熟悉资产负债表、利润表和现金流量表之间的关系。
5. 公司金融（Corporate Finance）：理解资本预算和资本结构的基本原理。
掌握投资决策和融资决策的方法。
熟悉公司治理和股权结构的影响。
6. 证券投资（Equity Investments）：理解股票市场和股票投资的基本原理。
掌握股票估值和投资组合管理的方法。
熟悉股票投资的风险管理和绩效评估。
7. 固定收益投资（Fixed Income Investments）：理解债券市场和债券投资的基本原理。
掌握债券估值和债券组合管理的方法。
熟悉利率风险和信用风险的评估和管理。
8. 衍生品投资（Derivative Investments）：理解衍生品市场和衍生品投资的基本原理。
掌握期权、期货和其他衍生品的估值和交易策略。
熟悉衍生品投资的风险管理和绩效评估。
9. 另类投资（Alternative Investments）：理解另类投资市场和另类投资的基本原理。
掌握房地产、私募股权和大宗商品等另类投资的特点和风险。
公司金融课件 Chapter03
3-10
Computing Leverage Ratios 计算杠杆比率
Total Debt Ratio = (TA – TE) / TA 负债比率=（总资产-总权益）/总资产
(3588 - 2591) / 3588 = 28%
Debt/Equity = TD / TE 负债权益比=总负债/总权益
分比 共同比利润表：把报表中的每个项目都表示成销售额的百分比 除了共同比财务报表之外，还可以通过财务比率来分析比较不
同规模公司的财务况。
3-4
共同比资产负债表
3-5
共同比利润表
衡量利润的指标 净利润 （Net Income） 每股收益 (EPS) EBIT （息税前利润） EBITDA（息税及折旧及和摊销前利润）
3-3
3.1 Financial Statements Analysis 财务报表分析
由于规模差异，很难直接比较两家公司的财务报表。 另外，不同的国家有不同的货币计价单位，不同的会计准则，
这些让国别的比较也变得困难。 因此，需要对报表进行标准化：共同比报表
（common-size statements） 共同比资产负债表：把报表中的每个项目都表示成总资产的百
3-8
Categories of Financial Ratios 财务比率的类别
Short-term solvency or liquidity ratios 短期偿债能力或流动性比率
Long-term solvency or financial leverage ratios 长期偿债能力或财务杠杆比率
关于财务计划模型的注意事项
3-2
3.1 Financial Statements Analysis财务报表分析
Computing Leverage Ratios 计算杠杆比率
Total Debt Ratio = (TA – TE) / TA 负债比率=（总资产-总权益）/总资产
(3588 - 2591) / 3588 = 28%
Debt/Equity = TD / TE 负债权益比=总负债/总权益
分比 共同比利润表：把报表中的每个项目都表示成销售额的百分比 除了共同比财务报表之外，还可以通过财务比率来分析比较不
同规模公司的财务况。
3-4
共同比资产负债表
3-5
共同比利润表
衡量利润的指标 净利润 （Net Income） 每股收益 (EPS) EBIT （息税前利润） EBITDA（息税及折旧及和摊销前利润）
3-3
3.1 Financial Statements Analysis 财务报表分析
由于规模差异，很难直接比较两家公司的财务报表。 另外，不同的国家有不同的货币计价单位，不同的会计准则，
这些让国别的比较也变得困难。 因此，需要对报表进行标准化：共同比报表
（common-size statements） 共同比资产负债表：把报表中的每个项目都表示成总资产的百
3-8
Categories of Financial Ratios 财务比率的类别
Short-term solvency or liquidity ratios 短期偿债能力或流动性比率
Long-term solvency or financial leverage ratios 长期偿债能力或财务杠杆比率
关于财务计划模型的注意事项
3-2
3.1 Financial Statements Analysis财务报表分析
Long-Term Financial Planning and Corporate Growth
375 100 475 800 800 1,110 1,910
Pro-forma balance sheet ($)
Cash Accounts receivable Inventory Current assets Fixed assets Total assets
This year 160 440 600 1,200 1,800 3,000
This year 160 440 600 1,200 1,800 3,000
Forecasted 200 550 750 1,500 2,250 3,750
Accounts payable Notes payable Current liabilities Long-term debt Common stock Retained earnings Equity Total liabilities
How it works
Forecasted growth in assets has to be matched with a corresponding growth in financing:
• Start with forecasting the growth in assets • Determine how much additional financing is needed • Determine whether internal funds are sufficient • If necessary, plan for external financing
300 100 400 800 800 1,000 1,800 3,000
375 100 475 800 800 1,110 1,910 3,185 (?!)
公司理财罗斯英文原书第九版第三章
3-17
Potential Problems
There is no underlying theory, so there is no way to know which ratios are most relevant. Benchmarking （标杆学习） is difficult for diversified firms. Globalization and international competition makes comparison more difficult because of differences in accounting regulations. Firms use varying accounting procedures. Firms have different fiscal years. Extraordinary, or one-time, events
2904 + (196 + 457) – 98 = 3465 3465 / 967 = 3.6 times
3-13
EV Multiple（企业倍数） = EV / EBITDA
Using Financial Statements
Ratios are not very helpful by themselves: they need to be compared to something Time-Trend Analysis（时间趋势分析 ）
98 / 540 = .18 times
3-6
Computing Leverage Ratios
Total Debt Ratio = (TA – TE) / TA （负债比 率）
公司理财(罗斯)第1章(英文
• Structure: This book is organized into several key sections. It begins with an introduction to the field of corporate finance and its importance. Subsequent chapters cover topics such as capital budgeting, risk and return, capital structure, dividend policy, mergers and acquisitions, and international corporate finance. Each chapter includes illustrative examples, case studies, and practical applications to help readers apply the concepts discussed. The book concludes with a summary of key takeaways and additional resources for further study.
03 Valuation Basis
The concept and significance of valuation
要点一
Definition
Valuation is the process of estimating the worth of an asset or a company, typically through the use of financial metrics and analysis.
The Time Value of Money
03 Valuation Basis
The concept and significance of valuation
要点一
Definition
Valuation is the process of estimating the worth of an asset or a company, typically through the use of financial metrics and analysis.
The Time Value of Money
1[1].财务管理概论
![1[1].财务管理概论](https://img.taocdn.com/s3/m/466980c6aa00b52acfc7caa2.png)
22
1.6 财务管理目标
两种最具代表性的观点：
1. 企业利润最大化； 优点：经济学的观点；最综合的财务指标；最容易被接受的财务概 念。 缺点：概念含糊, 不明确，没有区分公司总利润、投资利润率还是 每股利润；没有考虑货币的时间价值； 没有考虑风险因素， 高额利润往往要承担过大的风险；片面追求利润最大化，可 能导致企业短期行为，如忽视科技开发、产品开发、入才开 发、生产安全，技术装备水平、生活福利设施、履行社会责 任等；利润容易被操纵；在现在资本市场下，利润与企业价值 之间的关系并不明确。 2. 股东财富最大化－每股收益最大化。
财务会计与财务管理（理财） 财务会计是为证券市场服务的一套信息生产和发 布系统，提供完整的财务报告——资产负债表、 利润表与现金流量表等是其基本目标。 财务管理，又称理财，是企业管理的核心组成部 分，是对企业资金的科学运作，包括投资管理、 融资管理、短期财务管理、股利政策等。增加企 业价值是财务管理的基本目标。
筹资组 合的确 定，即 股权与 债权的 安排。
融资种 类－最 低资本 成本， 最优资 本结构
流 动 资 产 管 理
流 动 负 债 管 理
25
股东财富：股票投资报酬率
股票投资报酬率＝股利收益＋资本利得 股利报酬率＝每期股利／期初股票价格 资本利得＝（期末股票价格－期初股票价格）／ 期初股票价格＝股利增长率 通常情况下，股利收益较大时，资本利得会减少， 因为公司将更多的税后盈利用于向股东分派股利， 用于公司内部投资的资金就会减少。
20
1.4 财务管理的组织结构
股 东
选
大
举
会 会
董
聘
事
财务状况分析和长期规划讲义-英文
sure of the firm’s financial leverage.
Calculating the Du Pont Identity
ROA = 10.1% and EM = 1.39
ROE = 10.1% * 1.385 = 14.0%
Know how to compute and interpret important financial ratios
Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach
Understand how capital structure and dividend policies affect a firm’s ability to grow
ROE = (NI / TE) (TA / TA) ROE = (NI / TA) (TA / TE) = ROA * EM
Multiply by 1 again and then rearrange:
ROE = (NI / TA) (TA / TE) (Sales / Sales) ROE = (NI / Sales) (Sales / TA) (TA / TE) ROE = PM * TAT * EM
Chapter 3
Financial Statements Analysis and Long-Term Planning
Key Concepts and Skills
Know how to standardize financial statements for comparison purposes
3.2 Ratio Analysis
Ratios also allow for better comparison through time or between companies
Calculating the Du Pont Identity
ROA = 10.1% and EM = 1.39
ROE = 10.1% * 1.385 = 14.0%
Know how to compute and interpret important financial ratios
Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach
Understand how capital structure and dividend policies affect a firm’s ability to grow
ROE = (NI / TE) (TA / TA) ROE = (NI / TA) (TA / TE) = ROA * EM
Multiply by 1 again and then rearrange:
ROE = (NI / TA) (TA / TE) (Sales / Sales) ROE = (NI / Sales) (Sales / TA) (TA / TE) ROE = PM * TAT * EM
Chapter 3
Financial Statements Analysis and Long-Term Planning
Key Concepts and Skills
Know how to standardize financial statements for comparison purposes
3.2 Ratio Analysis
Ratios also allow for better comparison through time or between companies
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Will the firm be able to finance growth in sales with retained earnings and forecast increases in debt?
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-13
A Brief Example
Current Balance Sheet(millions)源自Current assets
$6
Fixed assets
$24
Total assets
$30
Short-term debt $10
Long-term debt $6
Common stock $4
Retained Earnings $10
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-2
26.1 What is Corporate Financial Planning?
• It formulates the method by which financial goals are to be achieved.
The Rosengarten Corporation is think of acquiring a new machine. The machine will increase sales from $20 million to $22 million—10% growth.
The firm believes that its assets and liabilities grow directly with its level of sales. Its profit margin on sales is 10%, and its dividend-payout ratio is 50%.
26-15 The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet:
1. Express balance-sheet items that vary with sales as a percentage of sales.
• There are two dimensions:
1. A Time Frame
• Short run is probably anything less than a year.
• Long run is anything over that; usually taken to be a two-year to five-year period.
$4
Constant
$11.1
Net Income
$32.7
$300,000
Funds needed
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-14
A Brief Example: EFN
• The external funds needed
Total financing $30
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Pro forma Balance Sheet
Explanation
$6.6
30% of sales
$26.4
120% of sales
$33
150% of sales
$11
50% of sales
$6.6
30% of sales
2. A Level of Aggregation
• Each division and operational unit should have a plan.
• As the capital-budgeting analyses of each of the firm’s divisions are added up, the firm aggregates these small projects as a big project.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-11
Economic Assumptions
• The plan must explicitly state the economic environment in which the firm expects to reside over the life of the plan.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-6
Sales Forecast
• All financial plans require a sales forecast. • Perfect foreknowledge is impossible since sales
26-4
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-5 26.2 A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients
1. Sales forecast 2. Pro forma statements 3. Asset requirements 4. Financial requirements 5. Plug 6. Economic assumptions
• Interest rate forecasts are part of the plan.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-12
A Brief Example
• Suppose a financial planner assumes that sales, costs, and net income will rise at g1. Further, suppose that the planner desires assets and liabilities to grow at a different rate, g2. These two rates may be incompatible unless a third variable is adjusted. For example, compatibility may only be reached is outstanding stock grows at a third rate, g3.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-3
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• The financial plan will describe projected capital spending.
• In addition it will the discuss the proposed uses of net working capital.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
• These are called pro forma statements or pro formas.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-8
Asset Requirements
26-0
Chapter Twenty Six
26 Corporate FinaCnocripaolrMateoFdinealsncaend
Long-Term Planning Ross • Westerfield • Jaffe Sixth Edition
Sixth Edition
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
AssetsSal esDebΔ t Sale(psProjecStaeld)es(1-d)
Sales
Sales
(1.5$2m)(0.80$2m)(0.10$22m0.5)
$1.4m$1.1m
$30,0000
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Dividend policy and capital structure policy should be addressed.
• If new funds are to be raised, the plan should consider what kinds of securities must be sold and what methods of issuance are most appropriate.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-13
A Brief Example
Current Balance Sheet(millions)源自Current assets
$6
Fixed assets
$24
Total assets
$30
Short-term debt $10
Long-term debt $6
Common stock $4
Retained Earnings $10
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-2
26.1 What is Corporate Financial Planning?
• It formulates the method by which financial goals are to be achieved.
The Rosengarten Corporation is think of acquiring a new machine. The machine will increase sales from $20 million to $22 million—10% growth.
The firm believes that its assets and liabilities grow directly with its level of sales. Its profit margin on sales is 10%, and its dividend-payout ratio is 50%.
26-15 The Steps in Estimation of Pro Forma Balance Sheet:
1. Express balance-sheet items that vary with sales as a percentage of sales.
• There are two dimensions:
1. A Time Frame
• Short run is probably anything less than a year.
• Long run is anything over that; usually taken to be a two-year to five-year period.
$4
Constant
$11.1
Net Income
$32.7
$300,000
Funds needed
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-14
A Brief Example: EFN
• The external funds needed
Total financing $30
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Pro forma Balance Sheet
Explanation
$6.6
30% of sales
$26.4
120% of sales
$33
150% of sales
$11
50% of sales
$6.6
30% of sales
2. A Level of Aggregation
• Each division and operational unit should have a plan.
• As the capital-budgeting analyses of each of the firm’s divisions are added up, the firm aggregates these small projects as a big project.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-11
Economic Assumptions
• The plan must explicitly state the economic environment in which the firm expects to reside over the life of the plan.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-6
Sales Forecast
• All financial plans require a sales forecast. • Perfect foreknowledge is impossible since sales
26-4
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-5 26.2 A Financial Planning Model: The Ingredients
1. Sales forecast 2. Pro forma statements 3. Asset requirements 4. Financial requirements 5. Plug 6. Economic assumptions
• Interest rate forecasts are part of the plan.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-12
A Brief Example
• Suppose a financial planner assumes that sales, costs, and net income will rise at g1. Further, suppose that the planner desires assets and liabilities to grow at a different rate, g2. These two rates may be incompatible unless a third variable is adjusted. For example, compatibility may only be reached is outstanding stock grows at a third rate, g3.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-3
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• The financial plan will describe projected capital spending.
• In addition it will the discuss the proposed uses of net working capital.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
• These are called pro forma statements or pro formas.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
26-8
Asset Requirements
26-0
Chapter Twenty Six
26 Corporate FinaCnocripaolrMateoFdinealsncaend
Long-Term Planning Ross • Westerfield • Jaffe Sixth Edition
Sixth Edition
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
AssetsSal esDebΔ t Sale(psProjecStaeld)es(1-d)
Sales
Sales
(1.5$2m)(0.80$2m)(0.10$22m0.5)
$1.4m$1.1m
$30,0000
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Dividend policy and capital structure policy should be addressed.
• If new funds are to be raised, the plan should consider what kinds of securities must be sold and what methods of issuance are most appropriate.