crystal ball中英文教程
crystal_ball_软件教学
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报童佛莱迪
➢ 佛莱迪在某大城市里主要市区经营一家报摊。
➢ 佛莱迪贩卖各类的报纸和杂志，其中最贵的报纸为财 经日报 。
➢ 财经日报相关的成本资料：
– 每份报纸的成本为1.50美元 – 每份报纸的售价为2.50美元 – 没售出的报纸，每份报纸可以获得0.50美元的偿还金
➢ 财经日报的销售资料：
– 佛莱迪每天的销售量介于40到70份之间。 – 销售数量介于40到70份之间任何数值的频率相同。
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运用仿真之电子表格模式
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CrystalBall的应用
➢ 利用CrystalBall来进行计算机仿真有四个步骤：
1. 定义随机输入栏。 2. 定义输出栏来预测。 3. 设定执行偏好。 4. 执行模拟。
某一事件发生次数之分配：二项分配
➢ 描述在固定试验次数内的事件发生次数（如：丢10次铜板出现正面的 次数）
➢ 每次试验只有二种可能结果 ➢ 试验相互独立 ➢ 每次试验的机率相同
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直到某事件发生的试验次数：几何
➢ 描述事件发生前的试验次数（如在转轮盘赌局中获胜前的下注 次数）
➢ 每次试验的机率皆相同 ➢ 成功前不能停止 ➢ 试验次数不限定
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具有三个参数的分配：韦伯分配
➢ 某数值（位置）以上的随机数值 ➢ Shape（形状参数）> 0（通常 ≤10） ➢ Shape < 3会太过正偏态较（小于平均值的机率较大），类似
指数分配（當Shape =1时与指数分配相等） ➢ 当Shape =3.25时为对称形，超过这个数值为负偏态 ➢ Scale（规模参数）定义宽度
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一种常用集中趋势分配：对数常态分配
风险管理软件CrystalBall操作指南
风险管理软件CrystalBall操作指南Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball®To run a simulation using Crystal Ball®:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, e.g., profit).4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose 〝Sensitivity Analysis〞under Options in Run Preferences.5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should 〝reset〞 the simulation (click on the 〝Reset Simulation〞 button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.6. View ResultsThe forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after (orduring) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.Crystal Ball Toolbar:Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast Trend Assumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window ChartRecall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $7.50 and is sold for $10. After February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $2.50 per calendar. Suppose Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 (discrete uniform).Demand = d ~ Uniform[100, 300]Order Quantity = Q (decision variable)Revenue = $10 * Min(Q, d)Cost = $7.50 * QRefund = $2.50 * Max(Q–d, 0)Profit = Revenue – Cost + RefundStep #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Step #2 (Define Assumptions —i.e., random variables)—color code (blue):and click on the 〝Define Assumptions 〞 button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu):Select type of distribution:Provide parameters of distributions:Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #3 (Define Forecast—i.e., output)click on the 〝Define Forecast〞 button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu),and fill in the Define Forecast dialogue box.Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)Click on the 〝Run Preferences〞 button in toolbar (or in the Run menu):and select the number of trials to run.Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #5 (Run Simulation)Click on the 〝Start Simulation〞 button in toolbar (or Run in the Run menu):Step #6 (View Results)The results of the simulation can be viewed in a variety of different ways (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, and percentiles). Choose different options under the View menuin the forecast window.The results can be copied into a worksheet or Word document (choose Copy under the Edit menu in the simulation output window.Using Trend Charts to Find the Impact of Order Quantityon Potential ProfitDefine several forecast cells (G14:G18) for several possible order quantities (Q=100, 150, 200, 250, 300). Use the same random order quantity for each to compare them more equally (i.e., one assumption cell for demand—C14—with the rest set equal to C14).After running the simulation, choose 〝Open Trend Chart〞 in the Run menu. This chart gives 〝certainty bands〞 for the forecast cells. 10% of the time, the project duration will fall within the inner band (light blue), 25% of the time within the 2nd band (red), 50% of the time within the third band (green), and 90% of the time within the outside band (dark blue).Project Management—Global OilGlobal Oil is planning to move their credit card operation to Des Moines, Iowa from their home office in Dallas. The move involves many different divisions within the company. Real estate must select one of three available office sites. Personnel has to determine which employees from Dallas will move, how many new employees to hire, and who will train them. The systems group and treasurer’s office must organize the new operating procedure and make financial arrangements. The architects will have to design the interior space, and oversee needed structural improvements. Each site is an existing building with sufficient open space, but office partitions, computer facilities, furnishings, and so on, must all be provided.A complicating factor is that there is an interdependence of activities. In other words, some parts of the project cannot be started until other parts are completed. For example, Global cannot construct the interior of an office before it has been designed. Neither can it hire new employees until it has determined its personnel requirements.The necessary activities and their necessary predecessors (due to interdependence) are listed below. Three estimates are made for the completion time of each activity—the minimum time, most likely time, and maximum time.Start EndGlobal Oil Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)Step #2 (Define Assumptions—i.e., random variables)Each of the random activity times (B, C, D, E, G, and I) is assumed to follow the triangular distribution.Global Oil Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #3 (Define Forecast—i.e., output)Cell J15 is the forecast cell:Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)500 trials were run. In addition, Sensitivity Analysis was enabled in the Options of the Run Preferences dialogue box. This allows for the generation of sensitivity analysis results later.Step #5 (Run Simulation)Step #6 (View Results)Additional Results Available with Crystal Ball®Slide the triangles below the histograms to determine the probability that the output (project duration) is less than a certain value (e.g., a deadline), greater than a certain value, or between any two values (by sliding both triangles).Alternatively, you can type in values for the lower bound or upper bound to determine the probability. You can also type in a probability (in 〝Certainty〞), and it will determine the range that has that probability.There is a 79% chance the project will be completed within 150 days.There is a 2.4% chance that the project will take more than 160 days.Sensitivity ChartChoose 〝Open Sensitivity Chart〞 in the Run menu. Note that this chart is only available ifyou selected the 〝Sensitivity Analysis〞 option under Run Preferences. This chart gives an indication as to which random variables (activity times) have the greatest impact on the output cell (project completion time).Variability in activity E has the greatest impact on overall project duration, followed by activity D, C, I, and B. Variability in activity G has almost no impact.Fitting a DistributionCrystal Ball can be used to 〝fit〞 a distribution to data.The following data has been collected for the previous 100 phone calls to a mail-order house:(80 rows have been hidden)Fitting Data to a DistributionUsing Crystal Ball® to fit data to a distribution1. Select a spreadsheet cell.2. Choose Define Assumption.3. Click the Fit button, then select the source of the fitted data.4. Click the Next button, then select the distributions to try to fit.5. Click OK.Interarrival TimeService Time。
crystalball实验操作过程
C r y s t a l B a l l实验操作过程(总7页)-CAL-FENGHAI.-(YICAI)-Company One1-CAL-本页仅作为文档封面，使用请直接删除Crystal Ball实验操作过程实验一：一、数据录入与导入双击CB快捷方式图标或直接打开Excel打开软件。
前面提到过Crystal Ball软件是在Excel里的一个插件，所以双击打开后是Excel的界面，如下图：图 1用户可以在该界面中直接录入数据，也可以左击右上角的符号，选择打开，将原有Excel表格中的数据直接导入到带有Crystal Ball插件的电子表格中。
二、拟合分布图2(1)对数据进行标准化处理(减少原数据相互间的距离对拟合分布的影响)通过Average计算每个分布工程样本数据的均值,然后各个样本数据除以相应的均值,对数据进行标准化处理。
（2）拟合分布选取表格区域，点击工具栏上“Run-Tools-Batch Fit”,如图3所示。
图3在操作对话框中，选择“next”,至图4对话框对相应命令进行选择,可得到拟合过程的相关数据。
图4注：对于卡方检验，水晶球软件计算p值，p值大于一般表示紧密拟合；对于科尔莫格洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验，一般地，小于的K-S值表明良好拟合；对于安德森-达林检验，小于的计算值一般表明拟合优良。
实验二:一.按照实验一的操作,先将数据在Crystal Ball软件打开.二、假设单元格概率分布的定义及相关操作输入数据后，进行随机变量假设单元格概率分布的定义。
这里假设使用悲观时间的单元格来进行概率分布的定义。
（注：对于假设单元格的选择，并无太多的限制，因为定义各种概率的分布，是由相应的参数确定的，因此选择的假设单元格不同对结果并没有影响。
）有一点需要注意的是，选择假设单元格时，该单元格应当是一确定的数字，而不能是公式.选定单元格（如单元格I2）后，点击工具栏上的，随即弹出图5，CB 软件中提供22种不同的分布可供选择，根据实验任务书的要求，第一和第二项分部分项工程服从三参数beta分布，因此，选择BtaPERT分布，并填入相应参数，即可完成对“基坑支护挖土方”的定义，如图6所示。
风险管理软件Crystal_Ball使用指导中英文
Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball®用水晶球软件进行蒙特卡洛模拟To run a simulation using Crystal Ball®:1.Setup Spreadsheet1．设定数据表Build a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.通过建立数据表可以对输入数据（随机的，非随机）进行评估。
随机数据的输入，输入任意数即可。
2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.2．定义假设的前提—例如，随机变量确定那些单元格的数据时随机的，这些数据应该服从什么样的分布3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, e.g., profit).3．预测结果的确定—例如，数据输出或者性能的测定确定哪些单元格的数据是你想预测的（典型的性能指标，例如，利润）4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis”under Options in Run Preferences.4. 选择试验的次数选择试验的次数。
水晶球软件使用CrystalBall
➢ Ignore it ➢ Simplify problem to make it analytically
tractable, get solution, then ignore real-life complications ➢ Find a way to obtain an approximate solution to real-world problems
Let 1 represent “heads” and 2 represent “tails”. Consider the following RNG:
=IF(RAND( )<0.5,1,2)
Generating Random Numbers with Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball provides two different ways for creating Random Number Generators in spreadsheets
We can implement Random Number Generators for uncertain cells to allow us to sample from the distribution of values expected for different cells.
How Random Number Generators Work
This is easy to do and bounds the outcomes, but tells
us nothing about the distribution of possible
outcomes within the best and worst-case limits.
风险管理软件CrystalBall使用指导
Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal BallTo run a simulation using Crystal Ball:1. Setup SpreadsheetBuild a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure ., profit in terms of the inputs random or not. For random inputs, just enter any number.2. Define Assumptions—., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.3. Define Forecast—., output or performance measureDefine which cells you are interested in forecasting typically the performance measure, ., profit.4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu first.6. View ResultsThe forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after or during the simulation. Many different results are available frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart. The results can be copied into theworksheet.Crystal Ball Toolbar:Define Define Run Start Reset Forecast Trend Assumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window ChartWalton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallRecall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $ and is sold for $10. After February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $ per calendar. Suppose Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 discrete uniform.Demand = d ~ Uniform100, 300Order Quantity = Q decision variableRevenue = $10 Min Q, dCost = $ QRefund = $ Max Q–d, 0Profit = Revenue – Cost + RefundStep 1 Setup SpreadsheetWalton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallStep 2 Define Assumptions —., random variables— color code blue:and click on the “Define Assumptions” button in toolbar or in the Cell menu:Select type of distribution:Provide parameters of distributions:Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallStep 3 Define Forecast—., outputclick on the “Define Forecast” button in toolbar or in the Cell menu,and fill in the Define Forecast dialogue box.Step 4 Choose Number of TrialsClick on the “Run Preferences” button in toolbar or in the Run menu:and select the number of trials to run.Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal BallStep 5 Run SimulationClick on the “Start Simulation” button in toolbar or Run in the Run menu:Step 6 View ResultsThe results of the simulation can be viewed in a variety of different ways frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, and percentiles. Choose different options under the View menu in the forecast window.The results can be copied into a worksheet or Word document choose Copy under the Edit menu in the simulation output window.Using Trend Charts to Find the Impact of Order Quantity on Potential ProfitDefine several forecast cells G14:G18 for several possible order quantities Q=100, 150, 200, 250, 300. Use the same random order quantity for each to compare them more equally ., one assumption cell for demand—C14—with the rest set equal to C14.After running the simulation, choose “Open Trend Chart” in the Run menu. This chart gives “certainty bands” for the forecast cells. 10% of the time, the project duration will fall within the inner band light blue, 25% of the time within the 2nd band red, 50% of the time within the third band green, and 90% of the time within the outside band dark blue.Project Management—Global OilGlobal Oil is planning to move their credit card operation to Des Moines, Iowa from their home office in Dallas. The move involves many different divisions within the company. Real estate must select one of three available office sites. Personnel has to determine which employees from Dallas will move, how many new employees to hire, and who will train them. The systems group and treasurer’s office must organize the new operating procedure and make financial arrangements. The architects will have to design the interior space, and oversee needed structural improvements. Each site is an existing building with sufficient open space, but office partitions, computer facilities, furnishings, and so on, must all be provided.A complicating factor is that there is an interdependence of activities. In other words, some parts of the project cannot be started until other parts are completed. For example, Global cannot construct the interior of an office before it has been designed. Neither can it hire new employees until it has determined its personnel requirements.The necessary activities and their necessary predecessors due to interdependence are listed below. Three estimates are made for the completion time of each activity—the minimum time, most likely time, and maximum time.Start EndGlobal Oil Simulation with Crystal BallStep 1 Setup SpreadsheetStep 2 Define Assumptions—., random variablesEach of the random activity times B, C, D, E, G, and I is assumed to follow the triangular distribution.Global Oil Simulation with Crystal BallStep 3 Define Forecast—., outputCell J15 is the forecast cell:Step 4 Choose Number of Trials500 trials were run. In addition, Sensitivity Analysis was enabled in the Options of the Run Preferences dialogue box. This allows for the generation of sensitivity analysis results later.Step 5 Run SimulationStep 6 View ResultsAdditional Results Available with Crystal BallSlide the triangles below the histograms to determine the probability that the output project duration is less than a certain value ., a deadline, greater than a certain value, or between any two values by sliding both triangles.Alternatively, you can type in values for the lower bound or upper bound to determine the probability. You can also type in a probability in “Certainty”, and it will determine the range that has that probability.There is a 79% chance the project will be completed within 150 days.There is a % chance that the project will take more than 160 days.Sensitivity ChartChoose “Open Sensitivity Chart” in the Run menu. Note that this chart isonly available if you selected the “Sensitivity Analysis” option under Run Preferences. This chart gives an indication as to which random variables activity times have the greatest impact on the output cell project completion time.followed by activity D, C, I, and B. Variability in activity G has almost no impact.Fitting a DistributionCrystal Ball c an be used to “fit” a distribution to data.The following data has been collected for the previous 100 phone calls to a mail-order house:80 rows have been hiddenFitting Data to a DistributionUsing Crystal Ball to fit data to a distribution1. Select a spreadsheet cell.2. Choose Define Assumption.3. Click the Fit button, then select the source of the fitteddata.4. Click the Next button, then select the distributions to try tofit.5. Click OK.Interarrival TimeService Time。
水晶球软件使用Crystal Ball
• Tradeoff between rigor and relevance
精选可编辑ppt
OPIM 5270 |Spring 2015
• Alternatives with the same expected value may involve very different levels of risk.
精选可编辑ppt
OPIM 5270 |Spring 2015
Methods of Risk Analysis
• Best-Case/Worst-Case Analysis • What-if Analysis • Simulation
精选可编辑ppt
OPIM 5270 |Spring 2015
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Monte Carlo simulation is a method by which approximate solutions are obtained to realistic (and therefore complicated) problems
Project Management Session 9 Crystal Ball
OPIM 5270
精选可编辑ppt
OPIM 5270 |Spring 2015
Session 9 Goals
Understand why risk must be analyzed Know pros / cons for three ways to analyze risk Identify random variables in models Know the four steps of a simulation process Generate random numbers with Crystal Ball Use the four steps of a simulation process Explain how Crystal Ball supports Proj. Mgmt.
crystal_ball_软件教学
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
模擬。 5. 描述當使用Crystal Ball時可以搭配電腦模擬的機率分配之特色。 6. 利用Crystal Ball程序辨識出符合歷史資料的連續分配。 7. 利用Crystal Ball的特色來產生一些幫助決策的決策表和趨勢圖。
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
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步驟 4：執行模擬
➢ 若要開始執行電腦模擬，你只要點選「Start Simulation」 （開始模擬）按鈕就可以開始執行。
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
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Crystal Ball 分配圖庫
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
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Crystal Ball 均勻分配對話方塊
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
➢ 利用Crystal Ball來進行電腦模擬有四個步驟：
1. 定義隨機輸入欄。 2. 定義輸出欄來預測。 3. 設定執行偏好。 4. 執行模擬。
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2009
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步驟 1：定義隨機輸入欄
➢ 隨機輸入欄是擁有隨機數值的輸入欄位 。
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Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball®用水晶球软件进行蒙特卡洛模拟To run a simulation using Crystal Ball®:1.Setup Spreadsheet1．设定数据表Build a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs (random or not). For random inputs, just enter any number.通过建立数据表可以对输入数据（随机的，非随机）进行评估。
随机数据的输入，输入任意数即可。
2. Define Assumptions—i.e., random variablesDefine which cells are random, and what distribution they should follow.2．定义假设的前提—例如，随机变量确定那些单元格的数据时随机的，这些数据应该服从什么样的分布3. Define Forecast—i.e., output or performance measureDefine which cell(s) you are interested in forecasting (typically the performance measure, e.g., profit).3．预测结果的确定—例如，数据输出或者性能的测定确定哪些单元格的数据是你想预测的（典型的性能指标，例如，利润）4. Choose Number of TrialsSelect the number of trials. If you would later like to generate the Sensitivity Analysis chart, choose “Sensitivity Analysis” under Options in Run Preferences.4. 选择试验的次数选择试验的次数。
如果要生成敏感度分析图表，选择优先运行下的“敏感度分析”5. Run SimulationRun the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “reset” the simulation (click on the “Reset Simulation” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first.运行模拟运行模拟。
如果要改变参数重新进行模拟，需要首先重置模拟（点击运行菜单工具栏或者运行菜单下的“重置模拟”按钮）。
6. View ResultsThe forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart,cumulative chart, statistics, percentiles, sensitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the worksheet.查看结果在模拟最后或者运行的过程中，预测窗口会自动显示模拟的结果。
可以获得不同的结果（频率图，累计图，统计图，百分比图，模拟分析图和趋势图），结果可以复制到工作表中。
Crystal Ball Toolbar:（水晶球的工具栏）TrendRun Start Reset Forecast Define DefineAssumptions Forecast Preferences Simulation Simulation Window Chart（确定假设）确定预测结果优先运行开始模拟模拟重置预测窗口趋势图Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®水晶球在Walton书店模拟中的应用Recall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of next year’s nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $7.50 and is sold for $10. After February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $2.50 per calendar. Suppose Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 (discrete uniform).回想Walton书店的例子。
在八月份，书店需要确定订购的明年的日历的数量。
单个日历的进价是7.5美元，售价是10美元。
二月份之后，所有未售的日历将会以2.5美元的价格退还给出版商。
假设Walton 日历的销售量在100~300之间（离散型均匀分布）Demand = d ~ Uniform[100, 300]Order Quantity = Q (decision variable)Revenue = $10 * Min(Q, d)Cost = $7.50 * QRefund = $2.50 * Max(Q–d, 0)Profit = Revenue – Cost + Refund需求量= d ~ Uniform[100, 300]订购量= Q (随决定变化)收入 = $10 * Min(Q, d)成本 =$7.50 * Q退款 = $2.50 * Max(Q–d, 0)利润 =收入-成本+退款Step #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)第一步（制作电子表格）Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®用水晶球对Walton 书店进行模拟Step #2 (Define Assumptions—i.e., random variables) 第二步（定义假设-例如，随机变量）Select the cell that contains the random variable (B17) — color code (blue): 选择包含随机变量的单元（B17）—色标（蓝色）and click on the “Define Assumptions” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu):、 点击在工具栏中（单元格菜单）的“定义假设”按钮选择分布类型Select type of distribution:提供分布的参数Provide parameters of distributions:Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #3 (Define Forecast—i.e., output)第三步（确定预测—例如，输出量）Select the cell that contains the output variable to forecast (F17):F17）click on the “Define Forecast” button in toolbar (or in the Cell menu),在确定预测对话框中输入and fill in the Define Forecast dialogue box.Step #4 (Choose Number of Trials)第四步（选择试验的次数）Click on the “Run Preferences” button in toolbar (or in the Run menu):点击工具栏（或者运行菜单）中的“优先运行”按钮然后选择运行的次数并运行and select the number of trials to run.Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball®Step #5 (Run Simulation)第五步（进行模拟）Click on the “Start Simulation” button in toolbar (or Run in the Run menu):点击工具栏（或者运行菜单栏）中的“开始模拟”按钮Step #6 (View Results)第六步（查看结果）可以通过不同的方法观察模拟结果（频率图，累计图，统计图及百分比图）。
在预测窗口中的查看菜单中进行不同的选择。
The results of the simulation can be viewed in a variety of different ways (frequency chart, cumulative chart, statistics, and percentiles). Choose different options under the View menu in the forecast window.The results can be copied into a worksheet or Word document (choose Copy under the Edit menu in the simulation output window.结果可以复制到工作表或者Word文档中（选择模拟输出窗口中编辑菜单下的复制）Using Trend Charts to Find the Impact of OrderQuantity on Potential Profit用趋势图找到订货量对利润的影响Define several forecast cells (G14:G18) for several possible order quantities (Q=100, 150, 200, 250, 300). Use the same random order quantity for each to compare them more equally (i.e., one assumption cell for demand—C14—with the rest set equal to C14).针对不同可能的订货量(Q=100, 150, 200, 250, 300)，定义一些预测单元格（G14:G18），为了更为公平的对比，每次都使用相同的随机订货量After running the simulation, choose “Open Trend Chart” in the Run menu. This chart gives “certainty bands” for the forecast cells. 10% of the time, the project duration will fall within the inner band (light blue), 25% of the time within the 2nd band (red), 50% of the time within the third band (green), and 90% of the time within the outside band (dark blue).运行模拟之后，选择运行菜单下的“打开趋势图”。